渤海湾盆地济阳坳陷东部走滑构造特征及其对油气成藏的影响研究

研究区位于郯庐断裂中段与济阳坳陷的构造结合部，区内走滑构造广泛发育，主要的走滑断裂有7条，分别是郯庐断裂带的东西两支、垦东断层、孤东断层、长堤断层、埕东断层和发育于垦东凸起中部的浅层走滑构造带。走滑构造带与油气富集带有着明显的对应关系。 通过对研究区内二维、三维地震测线和平面构造图的精细解释和分析，分别揭示了各走滑断裂在平面、剖面和三维空间上的构造形态。根据走滑断裂及其伴生构造的平面和剖面上的几何学特征，将研究区内的走滑断裂划分为三种类型：成熟型走滑断裂、隐伏型走滑断裂、不连续型的走滑断裂。 从理论模式研究入手，推导了拉分盆地中盆地的走滑速率与沉降速率之间的关系，证实了走滑速率同盆地的几何形状参数、最大沉降深度和盆地的沉降速率存在着稳定的数值关系。通过对莱州湾地区潍北凹陷基底沉降历史的分析，建立了潍北凹陷沉降速率与郯庐断裂中段走滑速率之间的经验关系式，进而求出郯庐断裂中段新生代右行走滑位移量的大小为40km。 运用2DMove软件，对研究区内四条典型剖面进行构造复原，计算出了各条剖面每个时期的伸展参数，对研究区构造活动强度进行了定量分析，揭示了研究区的构造演化规律。通过运用Ansys软件进行有限元模拟，恢复了晚白垩世晚期-古近纪早期研究区内的构造应力场和应变场，揭示了扭张作用是研究区内走滑断层开始走滑的主要原因。 通过上述分析，结合对究区内近几年勘探开发成功和失败的实例分析，全面探讨了走滑活动对于油气成藏“生”、“储”、“盖”、“圈”、“运”、“保”各因素的影响。

Modeling Financial Time Series with Artificial Neural Networks

Financial time series convey the decisions and actions of a population of human actors over time. Econometric and regressive models have been developed in the past decades for analyzing these time series. More recently, biologically inspired artificial neural network models have been shown to overcome some of the main challenges of traditional techniques by better exploiting the non-linear, non-stationary, and oscillatory nature of noisy, chaotic human interactions. This review paper explores the options, benefits, and weaknesses of the various forms of artificial neural networks as compared with regression techniques in the field of financial time series analysis.

Bayesian Analysis of Latent Threshold Dynamic Models

We discuss a general approach to dynamic sparsity modeling in multivariate time series analysis. Time-varying parameters are linked to latent processes that are thresholded to induce zero values adaptively, providing natural mechanisms for dynamic variable inclusion/selection. We discuss Bayesian model specification, analysis and prediction in dynamic regressions, time-varying vector autoregressions, and multivariate volatility models using latent thresholding. Application to a topical macroeconomic time series problem illustrates some of the benefits of the approach in terms of statistical and economic interpretations as well as improved predictions. Supplementary materials for this article are available online. © 2013 Copyright Taylor and Francis Group, LLC.

Fronts, jumps and secondary introductions suggested as different invasion patterns in marine species, with an increase in spread rates over time

Not all introduced (invasive) species in a region will spread from a single point of introduction. Long-distance dispersal or further introductions can obscure the pattern of spread, but the regional importance of such processes is difficult to gauge. These difficulties are further compounded when information on the multiple scale process of invasive species range expansion is reduced to one-dimensional estimates of spread (e. g. km yr(-1)). We therefore compared the results of two different metrics of range expansion: maximum linear rate of spread and accumulation of occupied grid squares (50 x 50 km) over time. An analysis of records for 54 species of introduced marine macrophytes in the Mediterranean and northeast Atlantic revealed cases where the invasion process was probably missed (e. g. Atlantic Bonnemaisonia hamifera) and suggested cases of secondary introductions or erratic jump dispersal (Dasysiphonia sp. and Womersleyella setacea). A majority of species analysed showed evidence for an accumulation of invaded sites without a clear invasion front. Estimates of spread rate are increasing for more recent introductions. The increase is greater than can be accounted for by temporally varying search effort and implies a historical increase in vector efficiency and/or a decreased resistance of native communities to invasion.

Wavelet analysis of bender element signals

Accurate determination of shear wave arrival time using bender elements may be severely affected by a combination of near-field effects and reflected waves. These may mask the first arrival of the shear wave, making its detection difficult in the time domain. This paper describes an approach for measuring the shear wave arrival time through analysis of the output signal in the time-scale domain using a multi-scale wavelet transform. The local maxima lines of the wavelet transform modulus are observed at different scales, and all singularities are mathematically characterised, allowing subsequent detection of the singularity relating to the first arrival. Examples of the use of this approach on typical synthetic and experimental bender element signals are also supplied, and these results are compared with those from other time and frequency domain approaches. The wavelet approach is not affected by near-field effects, but instead is characterised by a relatively consistent singularity related to the shear wave arrival time, across a range of frequencies and noise levels.

Trends in childhood type 1 diabetes incidence in Europe during 1989-2008: evidence of non-uniformity over time in rates of increase

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS:

The aim of the study was to describe 20-year incidence trends for childhood type 1 diabetes in 23 EURODIAB centres and compare rates of increase in the first (1989-1998) and second (1999-2008) halves of the period.

METHODS:

All registers operate in geographically defined regions and are based on a clinical diagnosis. Completeness of registration is assessed by capture-recapture methodology. Twenty-three centres in 19 countries registered 49,969 new cases of type 1 diabetes in individuals diagnosed before their 15th birthday during the period studied.

RESULTS:

Ascertainment exceeded 90% in most registers. During the 20-year period, all but one register showed statistically significant changes in incidence, with rates universally increasing. When estimated separately for the first and second halves of the period, the median rates of increase were similar: 3.4% per annum and 3.3% per annum, respectively. However, rates of increase differed significantly between the first half and the second half for nine of the 21 registers with adequate coverage of both periods; five registers showed significantly higher rates of increase in the first half, and four significantly higher rates in the second half.

CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION:

The incidence rate of childhood type 1 diabetes continues to rise across Europe by an average of approximately 3-4% per annum, but the increase is not necessarily uniform, showing periods of less rapid and more rapid increase in incidence in some registers. This pattern of change suggests that important risk exposures differ over time in different European countries. Further time trend analysis and comparison of the patterns in defined regions is warranted.

Analysis of groundwater-level response to rainfall and recharge estimates in fractured hard rock aquifers, NW Ireland

Despite fractured hard rock aquifers underlying over 65% of Ireland, knowledge of key processes controlling groundwater recharge in these bedrock systems is inadequately constrained. In this study, we examined 19 groundwater-level hydrographs from two Irish hillslope sites underlain by hard rock aquifers. Water-level time-series in clustered monitoring wells completed at the subsoil, soil/bedrock interface, shallow and deep bedrocks were continuously monitored hourly over two hydrological years. Correlation methods were applied to investigate groundwater-level response to rainfall, as well as its seasonal variations. The results reveal that the direct groundwater recharge to the shallow and deep bedrocks on hillslope is very limited. Water-level variations within these geological units are likely dominated by slow flow rock matrix storage. The rapid responses to rainfall (⩽2 h) with little seasonal variations were observed to the monitoring wells installed at the subsoil and soil/bedrock interface, as well as those in the shallow or deep bedrocks at the base of the hillslope. This suggests that the direct recharge takes place within these units. An automated time-series procedure using the water-table fluctuation method was developed to estimate groundwater recharge from the water-level and rainfall data. Results show the annual recharge rates of 42–197 mm/yr in the subsoil and soil/bedrock interface, which represent 4–19% of the annual rainfall. Statistical analysis of the relationship between the rainfall intensity and water-table rise reveal that the low rainfall intensity group (⩽1 mm/h) has greater impact on the groundwater recharge rate than other groups (>1 mm/h). This study shows that the combination of the time-series analysis and the water-table fluctuation method could be an useful approach to investigate groundwater recharge in fractured hard rock aquifers in Ireland.

Volatile terpenoids and C13 norisoprenoids in wines: development of rapid methods of analysis and evaluation of the sesquiterpenoids biological potential

Vitis vinifera L., the most widely cultivated fruit crop in the world, was the starting point for the development of this PhD thesis. This subject was exploited following on two actual trends: i) the development of rapid, simple, and high sensitive methodologies with minimal sample handling; and ii) the valuation of natural products as a source of compounds with potential health benefits. The target group of compounds under study were the volatile terpenoids (mono and sesquiterpenoids) and C13 norisoprenoids, since they may present biological impact, either from the sensorial point of view, as regards to the wine aroma, or by the beneficial properties for the human health. Two novel methodologies for quantification of C13 norisoprenoids in wines were developed. The first methodology, a rapid method, was based on the headspace solid-phase microextraction combined with gas chromatography-quadrupole mass spectrometry operating at selected ion monitoring mode (HS-SPME/GC-qMS-SIM), using GC conditions that allowed obtaining a C13 norisoprenoid volatile signature. It does not require any pre-treatment of the sample, and the C13 norisoprenoid composition of the wine was evaluated based on the chromatographic profile and specific m/z fragments, without complete chromatographic separation of its components. The second methodology, used as reference method, was based on the HS-SPME/GC-qMS-SIM, allowing the GC conditions for an adequate chromatographic resolution of wine components. For quantification purposes, external calibration curves were constructed with β-ionone, with regression coefficient (r2) of 0.9968 (RSD 12.51 %) and 0.9940 (RSD of 1.08 %) for the rapid method and for the reference method, respectively. Low detection limits (1.57 and 1.10 μg L-1) were observed. These methodologies were applied to seventeen white and red table wines. Two vitispirane isomers (158-1529 L-1) and 1,1,6-trimethyl-1,2-dihydronaphthalene (TDN) (6.42-39.45 μg L-1) were quantified. The data obtained for vitispirane isomers and TDN using the two methods were highly correlated (r2 of 0.9756 and 0.9630, respectively). A rapid methodology for the establishment of the varietal volatile profile of Vitis vinifera L. cv. 'Fernão-Pires' (FP) white wines by headspace solid-phase microextraction combined with comprehensive two-dimensional gas chromatography with time-of-flight mass spectrometry (HS-SPME/GCxGC-TOFMS) was developed. Monovarietal wines from different harvests, Appellations, and producers were analysed. The study was focused on the volatiles that seem to be significant to the varietal character, such as mono and sesquiterpenic compounds, and C13 norisoprenoids. Two-dimensional chromatographic spaces containing the varietal compounds using the m/z fragments 93, 121, 161, 175 and 204 were established as follows: 1tR = 255-575 s, 2tR = 0,424-1,840 s, for monoterpenoids, 1tR = 555-685 s, 2tR = 0,528-0,856 s, for C13 norisoprenoids, and 1tR = 695-950 s, 2tR = 0,520-0,960 s, for sesquiterpenic compounds. For the three chemical groups under study, from a total of 170 compounds, 45 were determined in all wines, allowing defining the "varietal volatile profile" of FP wine. Among these compounds, 15 were detected for the first time in FP wines. This study proposes a HS-SPME/GCxGC-TOFMS based methodology combined with classification-reference sample to be used for rapid assessment of varietal volatile profile of wines. This approach is very useful to eliminate the majority of the non-terpenic and non-C13 norisoprenic compounds, allowing the definition of a two-dimensional chromatographic space containing these compounds, simplifying the data compared to the original data, and reducing the time of analysis. The presence of sesquiterpenic compounds in Vitis vinifera L. related products, to which are assigned several biological properties, prompted us to investigate the antioxidant, antiproliferative and hepatoprotective activities of some sesquiterpenic compounds. Firstly, the antiradical capacity of trans,trans-farnesol, cis-nerolidol, α-humulene and guaiazulene was evaluated using chemical (DPPH• and hydroxyl radicals) and biological (Caco-2 cells) models. Guaiazulene (IC50= 0.73 mM) was the sesquiterpene with higher scavenger capacity against DPPH•, while trans,trans-farnesol (IC50= 1.81 mM) and cis-nerolidol (IC50= 1.48 mM) were more active towards hydroxyl radicals. All compounds, with the exception of α-humulene, at non-cytotoxic levels (≤ 1 mM), were able to protect Caco-2 cells from oxidative stress induced by tert-butyl hydroperoxide. The activity of the compounds under study was also evaluated as antiproliferative agents. Guaiazulene and cis-nerolidol were able to more effectively arrest the cell cycle in the S-phase than trans,trans-farnesol and α-humulene, being the last almost inactive. The relative hepatoprotection effect of fifteen sesquiterpenic compounds, presenting different chemical structures and commonly found in plants and plant-derived foods and beverages, was assessed. Endogenous lipid peroxidation and induced lipid peroxidation with tert-butyl hydroperoxide were evaluated in liver homogenates from Wistar rats. With the exception of α-humulene, all the sesquiterpenic compounds under study (1 mM) were effective in reducing the malonaldehyde levels in both endogenous and induced lipid peroxidation up to 35% and 70%, respectively. The developed 3D-QSAR models, relating the hepatoprotection activity with molecular properties, showed good fit (R2LOO > 0.819) with good prediction power (Q2 > 0.950 and SDEP < 2%) for both models. A network of effects associated with structural and chemical features of sesquiterpenic compounds such as shape, branching, symmetry, and presence of electronegative fragments, can modulate the hepatoprotective activity observed for these compounds. In conclusion, this study allowed the development of rapid and in-depth methods for the assessment of varietal volatile compounds that might have a positive impact on sensorial and health attributes related to Vitis vinifera L. These approaches can be extended to the analysis of other related food matrices, including grapes and musts, among others. In addition, the results of in vitro assays open a perspective for the promising use of the sesquiterpenic compounds, with similar chemical structures such as those studied in the present work, as antioxidants, hepatoprotective and antiproliferative agents, which meets the current challenges related to diseases of modern civilization.

Quantifying consistency of Event Related Potentials across subjects based on single-trial topographic analysis

Introduction: Non-invasive brain imaging techniques often contrast experimental conditions across a cohort of participants, obfuscating distinctions in individual performance and brain mechanisms that are better characterised by the inter-trial variability. To overcome such limitations, we developed topographic analysis methods for single-trial EEG data [1]. So far this was typically based on time-frequency analysis of single-electrode data or single independent components. The method's efficacy is demonstrated for event-related responses to environmental sounds, hitherto studied at an average event-related potential (ERP) level. Methods: Nine healthy subjects participated to the experiment. Auditory meaningful sounds of common objects were used for a target detection task [2]. On each block, subjects were asked to discriminate target sounds, which were living or man-made auditory objects. Continuous 64-channel EEG was acquired during the task. Two datasets were considered for each subject including single-trial of the two conditions, living and man-made. The analysis comprised two steps. In the first part, a mixture of Gaussians analysis [3] provided representative topographies for each subject. In the second step, conditional probabilities for each Gaussian provided statistical inference on the structure of these topographies across trials, time, and experimental conditions. Similar analysis was conducted at group-level. Results: Results show that the occurrence of each map is structured in time and consistent across trials both at the single-subject and at group level. Conducting separate analyses of ERPs at single-subject and group levels, we could quantify the consistency of identified topographies and their time course of activation within and across participants as well as experimental conditions. A general agreement was found with previous analysis at average ERP level. Conclusions: This novel approach to single-trial analysis promises to have impact on several domains. In clinical research, it gives the possibility to statistically evaluate single-subject data, an essential tool for analysing patients with specific deficits and impairments and their deviation from normative standards. In cognitive neuroscience, it provides a novel tool for understanding behaviour and brain activity interdependencies at both single-subject and at group levels. In basic neurophysiology, it provides a new representation of ERPs and promises to cast light on the mechanisms of its generation and inter-individual variability.

Les intermédiaires en développement en Afrique subsaharienne : analyse comparative de Cotonou et de Lomé

La présente thèse porte sur les acteurs au sein des organisations non gouvernementales locales (ONG) qui, dans la configuration actuelle de l’aide internationale au développement, jouent un rôle de relais ou d’intermédiaires entre donateurs internationaux et populations bénéficiaires en Afrique subsaharienne. En analysant les trajectoires professionnelles de 32 femmes et hommes « leaders » dans des ONG de Cotonou (Bénin) et de Lomé (Togo), la thèse se propose d’appréhender les processus sociaux à travers lesquels ces individus deviennent intermédiaires dans les activités de développement. La recherche s’inscrit dans une approche théorique construite à la rencontre entre la perspective orientée vers l’acteur en socioanthropologie du développement, la sociologie de l’individuation et le paradigme des parcours de vie. La thèse prend également une posture comparative en contrastant, d’une part, les trajectoires professionnelles des intermédiaires du Bénin et du Togo, deux pays ayant connu entre les années 1990 et début 2000 des « destinées » opposées en ce qui a trait à leurs rapports avec les bailleurs de fonds étrangers. D’autre part, l’analyse compare deux générations d’intermédiaires et contraste l’expérience des intermédiaires féminins et masculins. L’analyse montre qu’en premier lieu, les conférences nationales en 1990 au Bénin et en 1991 au Togo ont constitué un tournant important dans les trajectoires professionnelles des intermédiaires dans les deux pays, créant subséquemment, d’un côté, un contexte favorable aux intermédiaires du Bénin, et de l’autre, un environnement délétère pour ceux du Togo. Toutefois, au cours des dix dernières années, ces différences de conditions de travail se sont beaucoup atténuées et les défis relevés par les intermédiaires dans les deux pays sont à nouveau similaires; les contextes actuels sont caractérisés par un soutien étatique au minima, un champ d’activités très concurrentiel et politisé, une professionnalisation du champ, et une forte dépendance vis-à-vis des bailleurs de fonds extérieurs. En second lieu, l’analyse des récits de vie a permis de ressortir quatre types de profils des intermédiaires au moment où ils intègrent le champ des ONG : les « reconvertis », les « nouveaux diplômés des années 1990 », les « carriéristes », et les « activistes ». La comparaison générationnelle suggère en outre que les deux premiers types décrivent mieux les intermédiaires ayant commencé leurs activités avant les années 2000, alors que les « carriéristes » sont pour l’essentiel des intermédiaires de la jeune génération qui intègre le domaine de l’intermédiation après 2000. Aussi, la recherche montre que pour entrer, mais surtout « durer », dans le champ des ONG ces individus utilisent divers réseaux politiques et associatifs et savent « manœuvrer », notamment en choisissant une « thématique porteuse », en veillant à maintenir une constante « visibilité » ou en ayant recours à des formations continues pour acquérir ou consolider des compétences recherchées par les bailleurs de fonds. Par ailleurs, l’analyse des trajectoires professionnelles féminines a révélé qu’alors que le poids des responsabilités familiales a fait que les « pionnières » de l’intermédiation sont entrées de façon tardive dans une profession dominée par les hommes, et se sont toutes focalisées sur des thématiques liées directement aux droits des femmes, les parcours de leurs cadettes sont bien différents. Ces dernières ne travaillent pas dans le traditionnel domaine du « genre », et même si elles reconnaissent aussi leurs difficultés à concilier responsabilités professionnelles et devoir familial, elles ne sont pas prêtes à mettre de côté leur carrière et ont une perception très différente de leurs aînées des rôles genrés au sein de la famille.

Recurrence Quantification Analysis of System Signals for Detecting Tool and Chatter in Turning

In this thesis, the applications of the recurrence quantification analysis in metal cutting operation in a lathe, with specific objective to detect tool wear and chatter, are presented.This study is based on the discovery that process dynamics in a lathe is low dimensional chaotic. It implies that the machine dynamics is controllable using principles of chaos theory. This understanding is to revolutionize the feature extraction methodologies used in condition monitoring systems as conventional linear methods or models are incapable of capturing the critical and strange behaviors associated with the metal cutting process.As sensor based approaches provide an automated and cost effective way to monitor and control, an efficient feature extraction methodology based on nonlinear time series analysis is much more demanding. The task here is more complex when the information has to be deduced solely from sensor signals since traditional methods do not address the issue of how to treat noise present in real-world processes and its non-stationarity. In an effort to get over these two issues to the maximum possible, this thesis adopts the recurrence quantification analysis methodology in the study since this feature extraction technique is found to be robust against noise and stationarity in the signals.The work consists of two different sets of experiments in a lathe; set-I and set-2. The experiment, set-I, study the influence of tool wear on the RQA variables whereas the set-2 is carried out to identify the sensitive RQA variables to machine tool chatter followed by its validation in actual cutting. To obtain the bounds of the spectrum of the significant RQA variable values, in set-i, a fresh tool and a worn tool are used for cutting. The first part of the set-2 experiments uses a stepped shaft in order to create chatter at a known location. And the second part uses a conical section having a uniform taper along the axis for creating chatter to onset at some distance from the smaller end by gradually increasing the depth of cut while keeping the spindle speed and feed rate constant.The study concludes by revealing the dependence of certain RQA variables; percent determinism, percent recurrence and entropy, to tool wear and chatter unambiguously. The performances of the results establish this methodology to be viable for detection of tool wear and chatter in metal cutting operation in a lathe. The key reason is that the dynamics of the system under study have been nonlinear and the recurrence quantification analysis can characterize them adequately.This work establishes that principles and practice of machining can be considerably benefited and advanced from using nonlinear dynamics and chaos theory.

Analysis of System Signals Based on Cross Recurrence Method for System Dynamics Characterization

Natural systems are inherently non linear. Recurrent behaviours are typical of natural systems. Recurrence is a fundamental property of non linear dynamical systems which can be exploited to characterize the system behaviour effectively. Cross recurrence based analysis of sensor signals from non linear dynamical system is presented in this thesis. The mutual dependency among relatively independent components of a system is referred as coupling. The analysis is done for a mechanically coupled system specifically designed for conducting experiment. Further, cross recurrence method is extended to the actual machining process in a lathe to characterize the chatter during turning. The result is verified by permutation entropy method. Conventional linear methods or models are incapable of capturing the critical and strange behaviours associated with the dynamical process. Hence any effective feature extraction methodologies should invariably gather information thorough nonlinear time series analysis. The sensor signals from the dynamical system normally contain noise and non stationarity. In an effort to get over these two issues to the maximum possible extent, this work adopts the cross recurrence quantification analysis (CRQA) methodology since it is found to be robust against noise and stationarity in the signals. The study reveals that the CRQA is capable of characterizing even weak coupling among system signals. It also divulges the dependence of certain CRQA variables like percent determinism, percent recurrence and entropy to chatter unambiguously. The surrogate data test shows that the results obtained by CRQA are the true properties of the temporal evolution of the dynamics and contain a degree of deterministic structure. The results are verified using permutation entropy (PE) to detect the onset of chatter from the time series. The present study ascertains that this CRP based methodology is capable of recognizing the transition from regular cutting to the chatter cutting irrespective of the machining parameters or work piece material. The results establish this methodology to be feasible for detection of chatter in metal cutting operation in a lathe.

Die Wirkungen von Extensivierungs- und Vertragsnaturschutzprogrammen auf die Entwicklung einer "gerade noch aktuellen Agrarlandschaft"

Erfolgskontrollen für Agrarumweltprogramme bezogen sich bisher meistens auf einzelne Flächen oder auf programmbezogene, großräumige Evaluationen. Es wurde jedoch kaum untersucht, wie sich die Maßnahmen auf die Entwicklung einzelner Naturräume auswirken. Auch gab es keine Studien, welche die Wechselwirkungen zwischen den Beweggründen der Landnutzer auf der ei-nen- sowie Landnutzung und Vegetation auf der anderen Seite interpretierten. Die Dissertation Wirkungen von Extensivierungs- und Vertragsnaturschutzprogrammen auf die Entwick-lung einer »gerade noch aktuellen Agrarlandschaft« hat diese Lücke geschlossen. Sie erklärt, welche Bedeutung die hessischen Programme HELP und HEKUL für den hohen Anteil naturschutzfachlich wertvollen Grünlands im Rommeroder Hügel-land westlich des Meißner haben. Untersuchungsgegenstand waren die Grünlandvegetation und die landwirtschaftlichen Betriebe mit ihren Menschen und deren Beweggründen. Diese Inhalte er-forderten eine Vorgehensweise, die sowohl sozialwissenschaftliche als auch naturwissenschaftliche Methoden einbindet, um Bezüge zwischen Betrieben und Grünlandvegetation zu er-kennen. Umfangreiche pflanzensoziologische Untersuchungen und Interviews der Betriebsleiter waren Grundlage für eine Schlagdatenbank und weitergehende Auswertungen. Die Interpretation vegetationskundlicher Erhebungen im Kontext betrieblicher Entscheidungen und Beweggründe erforderte es, althergebrachte Ansätze in neuer Form zu verknüpfen. Die Bewertung der Programmwirkungen stützte sich auf die Schlagdatenbank und auf vier Szena-rien zur zukünftigen Gebietsentwicklung bei unterschiedlichen Programmfortschreibungen. Zur Darstellung von Erhebungen und Ergebnissen entstand eine Vielzahl thematischer Karten. Der überdurchschnittlich hohe Anteil naturschutzfachlich bedeutsamer Grünlandtypen auf den Programmflächen und die Interpretation der Szenarien belegten eine hohe Wirksamkeit von HELP und HEKUL im Gebiet. Nicht nur auf den Vertragsnaturschutzflächen des HELP, sondern auch auf dem HEKUL-Grünland sind naturschutzfachlich bedeutende Vegetationstypen überproportional vertreten. Die vier Szenarien ließen erkennen, dass eine Beschränkung des HELP auf Schutzgebiete, eine Abschaffung der HEKUL-Grünlandextensivierung oder gar eine ersatzlose Strei-chung beider Programme zu erheblichen Verschlechterungen der naturschutzfachlichen Situation führen würde. Gleichzeitig war festzustellen, dass es ohne die landwirtschaftlich schwierigen natur-räumlichen Verhältnisse sowie eine eher großteilige Agrarstruktur mit überdurchschnittlich flächen-starken und wirtschaftlich stabilen Vollerwerbsbetrieben keine so deutlichen Programmwirkungen gegeben hätte. Auch die Tatsache, dass viele Landwirte eine intensive Landwirtschaft aus innerer Überzeugung ablehnen und mit einer erheblich geringeren Stickstoffintensität wirtschaften als es HEKUL verlangt, wirkte verstärkend. Die große Bedeutung individueller Beweggründe einzelner Betriebsleiter wurde auch in den engen Beziehungen einzelner Grünland-Pflanzengesellschaften zu bestimmten Betriebstypen und sogar einzelnen Höfen sichtbar, deren Beschreibung und Interpretation wichtige Erkenntnisse zu den so-zioökonomischen Voraussetzungen verschiedener Vegetationstypen lieferte. Für die zukünftige Entwicklung der hessischen Agrarumweltförderung empfiehlt die Dissertation eine Einführung und bevorzugte Anwendung ergebnisorientierter Honorierungsverfahren, eine bessere Berücksichtigung des gering gedüngten Grünlands über eine differenzierte Förderung sehr extensiver Düngeregime, eine stärkere Modularisierung des Gesamtprogramms und eine Durchführung aller Maßnahmen im Vertragsverfahren. Die betriebszweigbezogene Grünlandextensivierung sollte zukünftig in Kulissen angeboten werden, in denen ein verstärktes Wechseln von Betrieben in die Mindestpflege nach DirektZahlVerpflV zu erwarten ist.

Compositional Data Analysis with R

R from http://www.r-project.org/ is ‘GNU S’ – a language and environment for statistical computing and graphics. The environment in which many classical and modern statistical techniques have been implemented, but many are supplied as packages. There are 8 standard packages and many more are available through the cran family of Internet sites http://cran.r-project.org . We started to develop a library of functions in R to support the analysis of mixtures and our goal is a MixeR package for compositional data analysis that provides support for operations on compositions: perturbation and power multiplication, subcomposition with or without residuals, centering of the data, computing Aitchison’s, Euclidean, Bhattacharyya distances, compositional Kullback-Leibler divergence etc. graphical presentation of compositions in ternary diagrams and tetrahedrons with additional features: barycenter, geometric mean of the data set, the percentiles lines, marking and coloring of subsets of the data set, theirs geometric means, notation of individual data in the set . . . dealing with zeros and missing values in compositional data sets with R procedures for simple and multiplicative replacement strategy, the time series analysis of compositional data. We’ll present the current status of MixeR development and illustrate its use on selected data sets

Plataforma web y sistema integral de incentivos basado en el esquema de cupones online y el mercado de compras colectivas

En este trabajo se realiza una descripción y análisis del esquema de funcionamiento detrás del emergente mercado de las compras colectivas y los cupones online desde una perspectiva tanto teórica como empírica. Inicialmente, se desarrolla un marco teórico teniendo en cuenta elementos de: teoría económica, e-marketing y comercio electrónico en los que se basa éste mercado. Posteriormente, se muestra el proyecto de implementación de una plataforma virtual y un sistema de incentivos basado en el esquema de cupones online desarrollado por el autor para la franquicia de tarjetas de crédito Diners Club International del Banco Davivienda S.A. en Colombia