989 resultados para time dependence
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Fraud is a global problem that has required more attention due to an accentuated expansion of modern technology and communication. When statistical techniques are used to detect fraud, whether a fraud detection model is accurate enough in order to provide correct classification of the case as a fraudulent or legitimate is a critical factor. In this context, the concept of bootstrap aggregating (bagging) arises. The basic idea is to generate multiple classifiers by obtaining the predicted values from the adjusted models to several replicated datasets and then combining them into a single predictive classification in order to improve the classification accuracy. In this paper, for the first time, we aim to present a pioneer study of the performance of the discrete and continuous k-dependence probabilistic networks within the context of bagging predictors classification. Via a large simulation study and various real datasets, we discovered that the probabilistic networks are a strong modeling option with high predictive capacity and with a high increment using the bagging procedure when compared to traditional techniques. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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We studied the energy and frequency dependence of the Fourier time lags and intrinsic coherence of the kilohertz quasi-periodic oscillations (kHz QPOs) in the neutron-star lowmass X-ray binaries 4U 1608−52 and 4U 1636−53, using a large data set obtained with the Rossi X-ray Timing Explorer. We confirmed that, in both sources, the time lags of the lower kHz QPO are soft and their magnitude increases with energy. We also found that: (i) In 4U 1636−53, the soft lags of the lower kHz QPO remain constant at∼30 μs in the QPO frequency range 500–850 Hz, and decrease to ∼10 μs when the QPO frequency increases further. In 4U 1608−52, the soft lags of the lower kHz QPO remain constant at 40 μs up to 800 Hz, the highest frequency reached by this QPO in our data. (ii) In both sources, the time lags of the upper kHz QPO are hard, independent of energy or frequency and inconsistent with the soft lags of the lower kHz QPO. (iii) In both sources the intrinsic coherence of the lower kHz QPO remains constant at ∼0.6 between 5 and 12 keV, and drops to zero above that energy. The intrinsic coherence of the upper kHz QPO is consistent with being zero across the full energy range. (iv) In 4U 1636−53, the intrinsic coherence of the lower kHz QPO increases from ∼0 at ∼600 Hz to ∼1, and it decreases to ∼0.5 at 920 Hz; in 4U 1608−52, the intrinsic coherence is consistent with the same trend. (v) In both sources the intrinsic coherence of the upper kHz QPO is consistent with zero over the full frequency range of the QPO, except in 4U 1636−53 between 700 and 900 Hz where the intrinsic coherence marginally increases. We discuss our results in the context of scenarios in which the soft lags are either due to reflection off the accretion disc or up-/down-scattering in a hot medium close to the neutron star. We finally explore the connection between, on one hand the time lags and the intrinsic coherence of the kHz QPOs, and on the other the QPOs’ amplitude and quality factor in these two sources.
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Temperature dependent transient curves of excited levels of a model Eu3+ complex have been measured for the first time. A coincidence between the temperature dependent rise time of the 5D0 emitting level and decay time of the 5D1 excited level in the [Eu(tta)3(H2O)2] complex has been found, which unambiguously proves the T1→5D1→5D0 sensitization pathway. A theoretical approach for the temperature dependent energy transfer rates has been successfully applied to the rationalization of the experimental data.
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This work provides a forward step in the study and comprehension of the relationships between stochastic processes and a certain class of integral-partial differential equation, which can be used in order to model anomalous diffusion and transport in statistical physics. In the first part, we brought the reader through the fundamental notions of probability and stochastic processes, stochastic integration and stochastic differential equations as well. In particular, within the study of H-sssi processes, we focused on fractional Brownian motion (fBm) and its discrete-time increment process, the fractional Gaussian noise (fGn), which provide examples of non-Markovian Gaussian processes. The fGn, together with stationary FARIMA processes, is widely used in the modeling and estimation of long-memory, or long-range dependence (LRD). Time series manifesting long-range dependence, are often observed in nature especially in physics, meteorology, climatology, but also in hydrology, geophysics, economy and many others. We deepely studied LRD, giving many real data examples, providing statistical analysis and introducing parametric methods of estimation. Then, we introduced the theory of fractional integrals and derivatives, which indeed turns out to be very appropriate for studying and modeling systems with long-memory properties. After having introduced the basics concepts, we provided many examples and applications. For instance, we investigated the relaxation equation with distributed order time-fractional derivatives, which describes models characterized by a strong memory component and can be used to model relaxation in complex systems, which deviates from the classical exponential Debye pattern. Then, we focused in the study of generalizations of the standard diffusion equation, by passing through the preliminary study of the fractional forward drift equation. Such generalizations have been obtained by using fractional integrals and derivatives of distributed orders. In order to find a connection between the anomalous diffusion described by these equations and the long-range dependence, we introduced and studied the generalized grey Brownian motion (ggBm), which is actually a parametric class of H-sssi processes, which have indeed marginal probability density function evolving in time according to a partial integro-differential equation of fractional type. The ggBm is of course Non-Markovian. All around the work, we have remarked many times that, starting from a master equation of a probability density function f(x,t), it is always possible to define an equivalence class of stochastic processes with the same marginal density function f(x,t). All these processes provide suitable stochastic models for the starting equation. Studying the ggBm, we just focused on a subclass made up of processes with stationary increments. The ggBm has been defined canonically in the so called grey noise space. However, we have been able to provide a characterization notwithstanding the underline probability space. We also pointed out that that the generalized grey Brownian motion is a direct generalization of a Gaussian process and in particular it generalizes Brownain motion and fractional Brownain motion as well. Finally, we introduced and analyzed a more general class of diffusion type equations related to certain non-Markovian stochastic processes. We started from the forward drift equation, which have been made non-local in time by the introduction of a suitable chosen memory kernel K(t). The resulting non-Markovian equation has been interpreted in a natural way as the evolution equation of the marginal density function of a random time process l(t). We then consider the subordinated process Y(t)=X(l(t)) where X(t) is a Markovian diffusion. The corresponding time-evolution of the marginal density function of Y(t) is governed by a non-Markovian Fokker-Planck equation which involves the same memory kernel K(t). We developed several applications and derived the exact solutions. Moreover, we considered different stochastic models for the given equations, providing path simulations.
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Organic electronics has grown enormously during the last decades driven by the encouraging results and the potentiality of these materials for allowing innovative applications, such as flexible-large-area displays, low-cost printable circuits, plastic solar cells and lab-on-a-chip devices. Moreover, their possible field of applications reaches from medicine, biotechnology, process control and environmental monitoring to defense and security requirements. However, a large number of questions regarding the mechanism of device operation remain unanswered. Along the most significant is the charge carrier transport in organic semiconductors, which is not yet well understood. Other example is the correlation between the morphology and the electrical response. Even if it is recognized that growth mode plays a crucial role into the performance of devices, it has not been exhaustively investigated. The main goal of this thesis was the finding of a correlation between growth modes, electrical properties and morphology in organic thin-film transistors (OTFTs). In order to study the thickness dependence of electrical performance in organic ultra-thin-film transistors, we have designed and developed a home-built experimental setup for performing real-time electrical monitoring and post-growth in situ electrical characterization techniques. We have grown pentacene TFTs under high vacuum conditions, varying systematically the deposition rate at a fixed room temperature. The drain source current IDS and the gate source current IGS were monitored in real-time; while a complete post-growth in situ electrical characterization was carried out. At the end, an ex situ morphological investigation was performed by using the atomic force microscope (AFM). In this work, we present the correlation for pentacene TFTs between growth conditions, Debye length and morphology (through the correlation length parameter). We have demonstrated that there is a layered charge carriers distribution, which is strongly dependent of the growth mode (i.e. rate deposition for a fixed temperature), leading to a variation of the conduction channel from 2 to 7 monolayers (MLs). We conciliate earlier reported results that were apparently contradictory. Our results made evident the necessity of reconsidering the concept of Debye length in a layered low-dimensional device. Additionally, we introduce by the first time a breakthrough technique. This technique makes evident the percolation of the first MLs on pentacene TFTs by monitoring the IGS in real-time, correlating morphological phenomena with the device electrical response. The present thesis is organized in the following five chapters. Chapter 1 makes an introduction to the organic electronics, illustrating the operation principle of TFTs. Chapter 2 presents the organic growth from theoretical and experimental points of view. The second part of this chapter presents the electrical characterization of OTFTs and the typical performance of pentacene devices is shown. In addition, we introduce a correcting technique for the reconstruction of measurements hampered by leakage current. In chapter 3, we describe in details the design and operation of our innovative home-built experimental setup for performing real-time and in situ electrical measurements. Some preliminary results and the breakthrough technique for correlating morphological and electrical changes are presented. Chapter 4 meets the most important results obtained in real-time and in situ conditions, which correlate growth conditions, electrical properties and morphology of pentacene TFTs. In chapter 5 we describe applicative experiments where the electrical performance of pentacene TFTs has been investigated in ambient conditions, in contact to water or aqueous solutions and, finally, in the detection of DNA concentration as label-free sensor, within the biosensing framework.
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Time-of-flight photoemission spectromicroscopy was used to measure and compare the two-photon photoemission (2PPE) spectra of Cu and Ag nanoparticles with linear dimensions ranging between 40 nm and several 100 nm, with those of the corresponding homogeneous surfaces. 2PPE was induced employing femtosecond laser radiation from a frequency-doubled Ti:sapphire laser in the spectral range between 375 nm and 425 nm with a pulse width of 200 fs and a repetition rate of 80 MHz. The use of a pulsed radiation source allowed us to use a high-resolution photoemission electron microscope as imaging time-of-flight spectrometer, and thus to obtain spectroscopic information about the laterally resolved electron signal. Ag nanoparticle films have been deposited on Si(111) by electron-beam evaporation, a technique leading to hemispherically-shaped Ag clusters. Isolated Cu nanoparticles have been generated by prolonged heating of a polycrystalline Cu sample. If compared to the spectra of the corresponding homogeneous surfaces, the Cu and Ag nanoparticle spectra are characterized by a strongly enhanced total 2PPE yield (enhancement factor up to 70), by a shift (about 0.1 eV) of the Fermi level onset towards lower final state energies, by a reduction of the work function (typically by 0.2 eV) and by a much steeper increase of the 2PPE yield towards lower final state energies. The shift of the Fermi level onset in the nanoparticle spectra has been explained by a positive unit charge (localized photohole) residing on the particle during the time-scale relevant for the 2PPE process (few femtoseconds). The total 2PPE yield enhancement and the different overall shape of the spectra have been explained by considering that the laser frequency was close to the localized surface plasmon resonance of the Cu and Ag nanoparticles. The synchronous oscillations induced by the laser in the metal electrons enhance the near-zone (NZ) field, defined as the linear superposition of the laser field and the field produced in the vicinity of the particles by the forced charge oscillations. From the present measurements it is clear that the NZ field behavior is responsible for the 2PPE enhancement and affects the 2PPE spatial and energy distribution and its dynamics. In particular, its strong spatial dependence allows indirect transitions through real intermediate states to take place in the metal clusters. Such transitions are forbidden by momentum conservation arguments and are thus experimentally much less probable on homogeneous surfaces. Further, we investigated specially tailored moon-shaped small metal nanostructures, whose NZ field was theoretically predicted, and compared the calculation with the laterally resolved 2PPE signal. We could show that the 2PPE signal gives a clear fingerprint of the theoretically predicted spatial dependence of the NZ field. This potential of our method is highly attractive in the novel field of plasmonics.
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A time series is a sequence of observations made over time. Examples in public health include daily ozone concentrations, weekly admissions to an emergency department or annual expenditures on health care in the United States. Time series models are used to describe the dependence of the response at each time on predictor variables including covariates and possibly previous values in the series. Time series methods are necessary to account for the correlation among repeated responses over time. This paper gives an overview of time series ideas and methods used in public health research.
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Ein auf Basis von Prozessdaten kalibriertes Viskositätsmodell wird vorgeschlagen und zur Vorhersage der Viskosität einer Polyamid 12 (PA12) Kunststoffschmelze als Funktion von Zeit, Temperatur und Schergeschwindigkeit angewandt. Im ersten Schritt wurde das Viskositätsmodell aus experimentellen Daten abgeleitet. Es beruht hauptsächlich auf dem drei-parametrigen Ansatz von Carreau, wobei zwei zusätzliche Verschiebungsfaktoren eingesetzt werden. Die Temperaturabhängigkeit der Viskosität wird mithilfe des Verschiebungsfaktors aT von Arrhenius berücksichtigt. Ein weiterer Verschiebungsfaktor aSC (Structural Change) wird eingeführt, der die Strukturänderung von PA12 als Folge der Prozessbedingungen beim Lasersintern beschreibt. Beobachtet wurde die Strukturänderung in Form einer signifikanten Viskositätserhöhung. Es wurde geschlussfolgert, dass diese Viskositätserhöhung auf einen Molmassenaufbau zurückzuführen ist und als Nachkondensation verstanden werden kann. Abhängig von den Zeit- und Temperaturbedingungen wurde festgestellt, dass die Viskosität als Folge des Molmassenaufbaus exponentiell gegen eine irreversible Grenze strebt. Die Geschwindigkeit dieser Nachkondensation ist zeit- und temperaturabhängig. Es wird angenommen, dass die Pulverbetttemperatur einen Molmassenaufbau verursacht und es damit zur Kettenverlängerung kommt. Dieser fortschreitende Prozess der zunehmenden Kettenlängen setzt molekulare Beweglichkeit herab und unterbindet die weitere Nachkondensation. Der Verschiebungsfaktor aSC drückt diese physikalisch-chemische Modellvorstellung aus und beinhaltet zwei zusätzliche Parameter. Der Parameter aSC,UL entspricht der oberen Viskositätsgrenze, wohingegen k0 die Strukturänderungsrate angibt. Es wurde weiterhin festgestellt, dass es folglich nützlich ist zwischen einer Fließaktivierungsenergie und einer Strukturänderungsaktivierungsenergie für die Berechnung von aT und aSC zu unterscheiden. Die Optimierung der Modellparameter erfolgte mithilfe eines genetischen Algorithmus. Zwischen berechneten und gemessenen Viskositäten wurde eine gute Übereinstimmung gefunden, so dass das Viskositätsmodell in der Lage ist die Viskosität einer PA12 Kunststoffschmelze als Folge eines kombinierten Lasersinter Zeit- und Temperatureinflusses vorherzusagen. Das Modell wurde im zweiten Schritt angewandt, um die Viskosität während des Lasersinter-Prozesses in Abhängigkeit von der Energiedichte zu berechnen. Hierzu wurden Prozessdaten, wie Schmelzetemperatur und Belichtungszeit benutzt, die mithilfe einer High-Speed Thermografiekamera on-line gemessen wurden. Abschließend wurde der Einfluss der Strukturänderung auf das Viskositätsniveau im Prozess aufgezeigt.
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OBJECTIVE The aim of our investigation was to review the implementation of a comprehensive tobacco dependence education (TDE) curriculum at the Medi School of Dental Hygiene (MSDH), Bern, Switzerland, 2001-2008. METHODS In 2001, new forms to record patients' tobacco use history and willingness to quit were created for all the MSDH patients. In 2002, a new theoretically based tobacco dependence treatment protocol was implemented into the MSDH curriculum. Students received instruction on how to provide brief tobacco use dependence interventions as well as maintain detailed records of patient tobacco use and cessation interventions for every smoker at all dental hygiene visits. RESULTS In 2002, 17 lecture hours were added to the following subjects: pathology, periodontology, preventive dentistry, pharmacology and psychology. During the same time period, 2213 patients (56.9% women) have visited the MSDH. Smoking status was recorded in 85.7% of all the patients (30.2% smokers). Brief tobacco use interventions were recorded in 36.8% of all smokers while 7.6% of these have reported to quit smoking. CONCLUSIONS Overall, the new TDE curriculum was successfully implemented and accepted by the MSDH faculty. Applications in the clinical practice, however, may still be improved to better identify smokers and increase initial and follow-up interventions potentially leading to higher quit rates.
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OBJECTIVES: Patients' motivation to change their substance use is usually viewed as a crucial component of successful treatment. The objective of this study was to examine whether motivation contributes to drinking outcomes after residential treatment for alcohol dependence. METHODS: Our sample included 415 Swiss patients from 12 residential alcohol treatment programs. We statistically controlled for important predictors, such as sex, employment, alcohol consumption before admission, severity of alcohol dependence, severity of psychiatric symptoms at admission, and alcohol-related self-efficacy at discharge. Abstinence, alcohol consumption, and time to first drink were used as primary outcome measures and were assessed 1 year after discharge from treatment. RESULTS: Action-oriented motivation to change substance use had a modest impact on drinking outcomes. At the 1-year follow-up, only the Taking Steps subscale of the Stages of Change Readiness and Treatment Eagerness Scale and alcohol-related self-efficacy were found to be significant predictors of abstinence and the number of standard drinks. CONCLUSIONS: The impact of action-oriented motivation at admission to residential treatment is modest but still relevant, compared with other outcome predictors. It may be useful to focus treatment on improving action-oriented motivation to reduce substance use
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During time-resolved optical stimulation experiments (TR-OSL), one uses short light pulses to separate the stimulation and emission of luminescence in time. Experimental TR-OSL results show that the luminescence lifetime in quartz of sedimentary origin is independent of annealing temperature below 500 °C, but decreases monotonically thereafter. These results have been interpreted previously empirically on the basis of the existence of two separate luminescence centers LH and LL in quartz, each with its own distinct luminescence lifetime. Additional experimental evidence also supports the presence of a non-luminescent hole reservoir R, which plays a critical role in the predose effect in this material. This paper extends a recently published analytical model for thermal quenching in quartz, to include the two luminescence centers LH and LL, as well as the hole reservoir R. The new extended model involves localized electronic transitions between energy states within the two luminescence centers, and is described by a system of differential equations based on the Mott–Seitz mechanism of thermal quenching. It is shown that by using simplifying physical assumptions, one can obtain analytical solutions for the intensity of the light during a TR-OSL experiment carried out with previously annealed samples. These analytical expressions are found to be in good agreement with the numerical solutions of the equations. The results from the model are shown to be in quantitative agreement with published experimental data for commercially available quartz samples. Specifically the model describes the variation of the luminescence lifetimes with (a) annealing temperatures between room temperature and 900 °C, and (b) with stimulation temperatures between 20 and 200 °C. This paper also reports new radioluminescence (RL) measurements carried out using the same commercially available quartz samples. Gaussian deconvolution of the RL emission spectra was carried out using a total of seven emission bands between 1.5 and 4.5 eV, and the behavior of these bands was examined as a function of the annealing temperature. An emission band at ∼3.44 eV (360 nm) was found to be strongly enhanced when the annealing temperature was increased to 500 °C, and this band underwent a significant reduction in intensity with further increase in temperature. Furthermore, a new emission band at ∼3.73 eV (330 nm) became apparent for annealing temperatures in the range 600–700 °C. These new experimental results are discussed within the context of the model presented in this paper.
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Insulin is an important regulator of renal salt and water excretion, and hyperinsulinemia has been implicated to play a role in hypertension. One of the target proteins of insulin action in the kidney is Na(+)/H(+) exchanger 3 (NHE3), a principal Na(+) transporter responsible for salt absorption in the mammalian proximal tubule. The molecular mechanisms involved in activation of NHE3 by insulin have not been studied so far. In opossum kidney (OK) cells, insulin increased Na(+)/H(+) exchange activity in a time- and concentration-dependent manner. This effect is due to activation of NHE3 as it persisted after pharmacological inhibition of NHE1 and NHE2. In the early phase of stimulation (2-12 h), NHE3 activity was increased without changes in NHE3 protein and mRNA. At 24 h, enhanced NHE3 activity was accompanied by an increase in total and cell surface NHE3 protein and NHE3 mRNA abundance. All the effects of insulin on NHE3 activity, protein, and mRNA were amplified in the presence of hydrocortisone. These results suggest that insulin stimulates renal tubular NHE3 activity via a biphasic mechanism involving posttranslational factors and an increase in NHE3 gene expression and the effects are dependent on the permissive action of hydrocortisone.
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Although negative density dependence (NDD) can facilitate tree species coexistence in forests, the underlying mechanisms can differ, and rarely are the dynamics of seedlings and saplings studied together. Herein we present and discuss a novel mechanism based on our investigation of NDD predictions for the large, grove-forming ectomycorrhizal mast fruiting tree, Microberlinia bisulcata (Caesalpiniaceae), in an 82.5-ha plot at Korup, Cameroon. We tested whether juvenile density, size, growth and survival decreases with increasing conspecific adult basal area for 3245 ‘new’ seedlings and 540 ‘old’ seedlings (< 75-cm tall) during an approximately 4-year study period (2008–2012) and for 234 ‘saplings’ (≥ 75-cm tall) during an approximately 6-year study period (2008–2014). We found that the respective densities of new seedlings, old seedlings and saplings were positively, not and negatively related to increasing BA. Maximum leaf numbers and heights of old seedlings were negatively correlated with increasing basal areas, as were sapling heights and stem diameters. Whereas survivorship of new seedlings decreased by more than one-half with increasing basal area over its range in 2010–2012, that of old seedlings decreased by almost two-thirds, but only in 2008–2010, and was generally unrelated to conspecific seedling density. In 2010–2012 relative growth rates in new seedlings’ heights decreased with increasing basal area, as well as with increasing seedling density, together with increasing leaf numbers, whereas old seedlings’ growth was unrelated to either conspecific density or basal area. Saplings of below-average height had reduced survivorship with increasing basal area (probability decreasing from approx. 0.4 to 0.05 over the basal area range tested), but only sapling growth in terms of leaf numbers decreased with increasing basal area. These static and dynamic results indicate that NDD is operating within this system, possibly stabilizing the M. bisulcata population. However, these NDD patterns are unlikely to be caused by symmetric competition or by consumers. Instead, an alternative mechanism for conspecific adult–juvenile negative feedback is proposed, one which involves the interaction between tree phenology and ectomycorrhizal linkages.
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Basalts from Hole 534A are among the oldest recovered from the ocean bottom, dating from the opening of the Atlantic 155 Ma. Upon exposure to a 1-Oe field for one week, these basalts acquire a viscous remanent magnetization (VRM), which ranges from 4 to 223% of their natural remanent magnetization (NRM). A magnetic field of similar magnitude is observed in the paleomagnetic lab of the Glomar Challenger, and it is therefore doubtful if accurate measurements of magnetic moment in such rocks can be made on board unless the paleomagnetic area is magnetically shielded. No correlation is observed between the Konigsberger ratio (beta), which is usually less than 3, and the ability to acquire a VRM. The VRM shows both a log t dependence and a Richter aftereffect. Both of these, but especially the log t dependence, will cause the susceptibility measurements (made by applying a magnetic field for a very short time) to be minimum values. The susceptibility and derived Q should therefore be used cautiously for magnetic anomaly interpretation, because they can cause the importance of the induced magnetization to be underestimated.
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Spectral absorption coefficients of total particulate matter ap (lambda) were determined using the in vitro filter technique. The present analysis deals with a set of 1166 spectra, determined in various oceanic (case 1) waters, with field chl a concentrations ([chl]) spanning 3 orders of magnitude (0.02-25 mg/m**3). As previously shown [Bricaud et al., 1995, doi:10.1029/95JC00463] for the absorption coefficients of living phytoplankton a phi (lamda), the ap (labda) coefficients also increase nonlinearly with [chl]. The relationships (power laws) that link ap (lambda) and a phi (lambda) to [chl] show striking similarities. Despite large fluctuations, the relative contribution of nonalgal particles to total absorption oscillates around an average value of 25-30% throughout the [chl] range. The spectral dependence of absorption by these nonalgal particles follows an exponential increase toward short wavelengths, with a weakly variable slope (0.011 ± 0.0025/nm). The empirical relationships linking ap (lambda) to ([chl]) can be used in bio-optical models. This parameterization based on in vitro measurements leads to a good agreement with a former modeling of the diffuse attenuation coefficient based on in situ measurements. This agreement is worth noting as independent methods and data sets are compared. It is stressed that for a given ([chl]), the ap (lambda) coefficients show large residual variability around the regression lines (for instance, by a factor of 3 at 440 nm). The consequences of such a variability, when predicting or interpreting the diffuse reflectance of the ocean, are examined, according to whether or not these variations in ap are associated with concomitant variations in particle scattering. In most situations the deviations in ap actually are not compensated by those in particle scattering, so that the amplitude of reflectance is affected by these variations.