The Role of Epistemic Monitoring in Language Comprehension

In der psycholinguistischen Forschung ist die Annahme weitverbreitet, dass die Bewertung von Informationen hinsichtlich ihres Wahrheitsgehaltes oder ihrer Plausibilität (epistemische Validierung; Richter, Schroeder & Wöhrmann, 2009) ein strategischer, optionaler und dem Verstehen nachgeschalteter Prozess ist (z.B. Gilbert, 1991; Gilbert, Krull & Malone, 1990; Gilbert, Tafarodi & Malone, 1993; Herbert & Kübler, 2011). Eine zunehmende Anzahl an Studien stellt dieses Zwei-Stufen-Modell von Verstehen und Validieren jedoch direkt oder indirekt in Frage. Insbesondere Befunde zu Stroop-artigen Stimulus-Antwort-Kompatibilitätseffekten, die auftreten, wenn positive und negative Antworten orthogonal zum aufgaben-irrelevanten Wahrheitsgehalt von Sätzen abgegeben werden müssen (z.B. eine positive Antwort nach dem Lesen eines falschen Satzes oder eine negative Antwort nach dem Lesen eines wahren Satzes; epistemischer Stroop-Effekt, Richter et al., 2009), sprechen dafür, dass Leser/innen schon beim Verstehen eine nicht-strategische Überprüfung der Validität von Informationen vornehmen. Ausgehend von diesen Befunden war das Ziel dieser Dissertation eine weiterführende Überprüfung der Annahme, dass Verstehen einen nicht-strategischen, routinisierten, wissensbasierten Validierungsprozesses (epistemisches Monitoring; Richter et al., 2009) beinhaltet. Zu diesem Zweck wurden drei empirische Studien mit unterschiedlichen Schwerpunkten durchgeführt. Studie 1 diente der Untersuchung der Fragestellung, ob sich Belege für epistemisches Monitoring auch bei Informationen finden lassen, die nicht eindeutig wahr oder falsch, sondern lediglich mehr oder weniger plausibel sind. Mithilfe des epistemischen Stroop-Paradigmas von Richter et al. (2009) konnte ein Kompatibilitätseffekt von aufgaben-irrelevanter Plausibilität auf die Latenzen positiver und negativer Antworten in zwei unterschiedlichen experimentellen Aufgaben nachgewiesen werden, welcher dafür spricht, dass epistemisches Monitoring auch graduelle Unterschiede in der Übereinstimmung von Informationen mit dem Weltwissen berücksichtigt. Darüber hinaus belegen die Ergebnisse, dass der epistemische Stroop-Effekt tatsächlich auf Plausibilität und nicht etwa auf der unterschiedlichen Vorhersagbarkeit von plausiblen und unplausiblen Informationen beruht. Das Ziel von Studie 2 war die Prüfung der Hypothese, dass epistemisches Monitoring keinen evaluativen Mindset erfordert. Im Gegensatz zu den Befunden anderer Autoren (Wiswede, Koranyi, Müller, Langner, & Rothermund, 2013) zeigte sich in dieser Studie ein Kompatibilitätseffekt des aufgaben-irrelevanten Wahrheitsgehaltes auf die Antwortlatenzen in einer vollständig nicht-evaluativen Aufgabe. Die Ergebnisse legen nahe, dass epistemisches Monitoring nicht von einem evaluativen Mindset, möglicherweise aber von der Tiefe der Verarbeitung abhängig ist. Studie 3 beleuchtete das Verhältnis von Verstehen und Validieren anhand einer Untersuchung der Online-Effekte von Plausibilität und Vorhersagbarkeit auf Augenbewegungen beim Lesen kurzer Texte. Zusätzlich wurde die potentielle Modulierung dieser Effeke durch epistemische Marker, die die Sicherheit von Informationen anzeigen (z.B. sicherlich oder vielleicht), untersucht. Entsprechend der Annahme eines schnellen und nicht-strategischen epistemischen Monitoring-Prozesses zeigten sich interaktive Effekte von Plausibilität und dem Vorhandensein epistemischer Marker auf Indikatoren früher Verstehensprozesse. Dies spricht dafür, dass die kommunizierte Sicherheit von Informationen durch den Monitoring-Prozess berücksichtigt wird. Insgesamt sprechen die Befunde gegen eine Konzeptualisierung von Verstehen und Validieren als nicht-überlappenden Stufen der Informationsverarbeitung. Vielmehr scheint eine Bewertung des Wahrheitsgehalts oder der Plausibilität basierend auf dem Weltwissen – zumindest in gewissem Ausmaß – eine obligatorische und nicht-strategische Komponente des Sprachverstehens zu sein. Die Bedeutung der Befunde für aktuelle Modelle des Sprachverstehens und Empfehlungen für die weiterführende Forschung zum Vehältnis von Verstehen und Validieren werden aufgezeigt.

Robust fault detection using consistency techniques for uncertainty handling

Often practical performance of analytical redundancy for fault detection and diagnosis is decreased by uncertainties prevailing not only in the system model, but also in the measurements. In this paper, the problem of fault detection is stated as a constraint satisfaction problem over continuous domains with a big number of variables and constraints. This problem can be solved using modal interval analysis and consistency techniques. Consistency techniques are then shown to be particularly efficient to check the consistency of the analytical redundancy relations (ARRs), dealing with uncertain measurements and parameters. Through the work presented in this paper, it can be observed that consistency techniques can be used to increase the performance of a robust fault detection tool, which is based on interval arithmetic. The proposed method is illustrated using a nonlinear dynamic model of a hydraulic system

Stability and consistency of coping in adolescence : A longitudinal study

Resumen tomado de la publicaci??n

Validación lingüística y psicométrica (adaptación cultural) de la escala Plutss para disfunción del tracto urinario inferior en niños colombianos

80% de los niños con ITU recurrente tiene algún síntoma de disfunción del tracto urinario inferior. Estos síntomas se clasifican según la ICCS (International Childrens Continence Society) de acuerdo a la fase del funcionamiento de la vejiga en la que presenten alteración, están los síntomas de llenado, los de eliminación y los asociados. Caracterizar estos síntomas, en forma objetiva para que no fueran simples relatos descriptivos de quejas de pacientes y pudieran ser utilizados para hacer diagnóstico y monitorear tratamiento obligó al uso de escalas que puntuaran cada uno de ellos. Estas escalas tienen su origen en el concepto del I-PSS (Puntaje Internacional de los Síntomas Prostáticos) que es una herramienta de gran utilidad para la clasificación de la hipertrofia prostática Hoy en día hay tres herramientas validadas para evaluar las alteraciones del tracto urinario inferior en niños; sin embargo ninguna de ellas ha sido a sido traducida al español ni adaptada culturalmente a la población hispanoamericana. El objetivo de este estudio es realizar la adaptación cultural (validación lingüística y psicométrica) de la escala PLUTSS,(4) que ya esta validada y es ampliamente utilizada; para aplicarla en un grupo de niños Colombianos estableciendo así el comportamiento de estos síntomas en nuestra población y para que pueda ser utilizada como herramienta de diagnóstico y seguimiento en los niños con alteración del tracto urinario inferior

Papers by Tracy STRONG

as per title

Genetic basis of Sjögren's syndrome. How strong is the evidence?

Sjögren's syndrome (SS) is a late-onset chronic autoimmune disease (AID) affecting the exocrine glands, mainly the salivary and lachrymal. Genetic studies on twins with primary SS have not been performed, and only a few case reports describing twins have been published. The prevalence of primary SS in siblings has been estimated to be 0.09% while the reported general prevalence of the disease is approximately 0.1%. The observed aggregation of AIDs in families of patients with primary SS is nevertheless supportive for a genetic component in its etiology. In the absence of chromosomal regions identified by linkage studies, research has focused on candidate gene approaches (by biological plausibility) rather than on positional approaches. Ancestral haplotype 8.1 as well as TNF, IL10 and SSA1 loci have been consistently associated with the disease although they are not specific for SS. In this review, the genetic component of SS is discussed on the basis of three known observations: (a) age at onset and sex-dependent presentation, (b) familial clustering of the disease, and (c) dissection of the genetic component. Since there is no strong evidence for a specific genetic component in SS, a large international and collaborative study would be suitable to assess the genetics of this disorder.

Consistency errors in p-values reported in Spanish psychology journals

Resumen tomado de la publicación

Analysis of the consistency of alphabet symbol/speech sound correspondence in three basal reader series

This paper reviews a study to analyze the number of times alphabet symbols occur in three commonly used basal reader series.

The roadmap to banking union: a call for consistency. CEPS Commentary, 30 August 2012

The proposal to move to a full banking union in the eurozone means a radical regime shift for the EU, since the European Central Bank will supervise the eurozone banks and effectively end ‘home country rule’. But how this is implemented raises a number of questions and needs close monitoring, explains CEPS CEO Karel Lannoo in this new Commentary.

Convectively coupled equatorial waves: A new methodology for identifying wave structures in observational data

Convectively coupled equatorial waves are fundamental components of the interaction between the physics and dynamics of the tropical atmosphere. A new methodology, which isolates individual equatorial wave modes, has been developed and applied to observational data. The methodology assumes that the horizontal structures given by equatorial wave theory can be used to project upper- and lower-tropospheric data onto equatorial wave modes. The dynamical fields are first separated into eastward- and westward-moving components with a specified domain of frequency–zonal wavenumber. Each of the components for each field is then projected onto the different equatorial modes using the y structures of these modes given by the theory. The latitudinal scale yo of the modes is predetermined by data to fit the equatorial trapping in a suitable latitude belt y = ±Y. The extent to which the different dynamical fields are consistent with one another in their depiction of each equatorial wave structure determines the confidence in the reality of that structure. Comparison of the analyzed modes with the eastward- and westward-moving components in the convection field enables the identification of the dynamical structure and nature of convectively coupled equatorial waves. In a case study, the methodology is applied to two independent data sources, ECMWF Reanalysis and satellite-observed window brightness temperature (Tb) data for the summer of 1992. Various convectively coupled equatorial Kelvin, mixed Rossby–gravity, and Rossby waves have been detected. The results indicate a robust consistency between the two independent data sources. Different vertical structures for different wave modes and a significant Doppler shifting effect of the background zonal winds on wave structures are found and discussed. It is found that in addition to low-level convergence, anomalous fluxes induced by strong equatorial zonal winds associated with equatorial waves are important for inducing equatorial convection. There is evidence that equatorial convection associated with Rossby waves leads to a change in structure involving a horizontal structure similar to that of a Kelvin wave moving westward with it. The vertical structure may also be radically changed. The analysis method should make a very powerful diagnostic tool for investigating convectively coupled equatorial waves and the interaction of equatorial dynamics and physics in the real atmosphere. The results from application of the analysis method for a reanalysis dataset should provide a benchmark against which model studies can be compared.

The response of a uniform horizontal temperature gradient to heating

The response of a uniform horizontal temperature gradient to prescribed fixed heating is calculated in the context of an extended version of surface quasigeostrophic dynamics. It is found that for zero mean surface flow and weak cross-gradient structure the prescribed heating induces a mean temperature anomaly proportional to the spatial Hilbert transform of the heating. The interior potential vorticity generated by the heating enhances this surface response. The time-varying part is independent of the heating and satisfies the usual linearized surface quasigeostrophic dynamics. It is shown that the surface temperature tendency is a spatial Hilbert transform of the temperature anomaly itself. It then follows that the temperature anomaly is periodically modulated with a frequency proportional to the vertical wind shear. A strong local bound on wave energy is also found. Reanalysis diagnostics are presented that indicate consistency with key findings from this theory.

The effect of doubled CO2 and model basic state biases on the monsoon-ENSO system. II: Changing ENSO regimes

Integrations of a fully-coupled climate model with and without flux adjustments in the equatorial oceans are performed under 2×CO2 conditions to explore in more detail the impact of increased greenhouse gas forcing on the monsoon-ENSO system. When flux adjustments are used to correct some systematic model biases, ENSO behaviour in the modelled future climate features distinct irregular and periodic (biennial) regimes. Comparison with the observed record yields some consistency with ENSO modes primarily based on air-sea interaction and those dependent on basinwide ocean wave dynamics. Simple theory is also used to draw analogies between the regimes and irregular (stochastically forced) and self-excited oscillations respectively. Periodic behaviour is also found in the Asian-Australian monsoon system, part of an overall biennial tendency of the model under these conditions related to strong monsoon forcing and increased coupling between the Indian and Pacific Oceans. The tropospheric biennial oscillation (TBO) thus serves as a useful descriptor for the coupled monsoon-ENSO system in this case. The presence of obvious regime changes in the monsoon-ENSO system on interdecadal timescales, when using flux adjustments, suggests there may be greater uncertainty in projections of future climate, although further modelling studies are required to confirm the realism and cause of such changes.

The ERA-40 re-analysis

ERA-40 is a re-analysis of meteorological observations from September 1957 to August 2002 produced by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) in collaboration with many institutions. The observing system changed considerably over this re-analysis period, with assimilable data provided by a succession of satellite-borne instruments from the 1970s onwards, supplemented by increasing numbers of observations from aircraft, ocean-buoys and other surface platforms, but with a declining number of radiosonde ascents since the late 1980s. The observations used in ERA-40 were accumulated from many sources. The first part of this paper describes the data acquisition and the principal changes in data type and coverage over the period. It also describes the data assimilation system used for ERA-40. This benefited from many of the changes introduced into operational forecasting since the mid-1990s, when the systems used for the 15-year ECMWF re-analysis (ERA-15) and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) re-analysis were implemented. Several of the improvements are discussed. General aspects of the production of the analyses are also summarized. A number of results indicative of the overall performance of the data assimilation system, and implicitly of the observing system, are presented and discussed. The comparison of background (short-range) forecasts and analyses with observations, the consistency of the global mass budget, the magnitude of differences between analysis and background fields and the accuracy of medium-range forecasts run from the ERA-40 analyses are illustrated. Several results demonstrate the marked improvement that was made to the observing system for the southern hemisphere in the 1970s, particularly towards the end of the decade. In contrast, the synoptic quality of the analysis for the northern hemisphere is sufficient to provide forecasts that remain skilful well into the medium range for all years. Two particular problems are also examined: excessive precipitation over tropical oceans and a too strong Brewer-Dobson circulation, both of which are pronounced in later years. Several other aspects of the quality of the re-analyses revealed by monitoring and validation studies are summarized. Expectations that the second-generation ERA-40 re-analysis would provide products that are better than those from the firstgeneration ERA-15 and NCEP/NCAR re-analyses are found to have been met in most cases. © Royal Meteorological Society, 2005. The contributions of N. A. Rayner and R. W. Saunders are Crown copyright.