Integrated Bayesian network frameworks for modelling complex ecological issues

Ecological problems are typically multi faceted and need to be addressed from a scientific and a management perspective. There is a wealth of modelling and simulation software available, each designed to address a particular aspect of the issue of concern. Choosing the appropriate tool, making sense of the disparate outputs, and taking decisions when little or no empirical data is available, are everyday challenges facing the ecologist and environmental manager. Bayesian Networks provide a statistical modelling framework that enables analysis and integration of information in its own right as well as integration of a variety of models addressing different aspects of a common overall problem. There has been increased interest in the use of BNs to model environmental systems and issues of concern. However, the development of more sophisticated BNs, utilising dynamic and object oriented (OO) features, is still at the frontier of ecological research. Such features are particularly appealing in an ecological context, since the underlying facts are often spatial and temporal in nature. This thesis focuses on an integrated BN approach which facilitates OO modelling. Our research devises a new heuristic method, the Iterative Bayesian Network Development Cycle (IBNDC), for the development of BN models within a multi-field and multi-expert context. Expert elicitation is a popular method used to quantify BNs when data is sparse, but expert knowledge is abundant. The resulting BNs need to be substantiated and validated taking this uncertainty into account. Our research demonstrates the application of the IBNDC approach to support these aspects of BN modelling. The complex nature of environmental issues makes them ideal case studies for the proposed integrated approach to modelling. Moreover, they lend themselves to a series of integrated sub-networks describing different scientific components, combining scientific and management perspectives, or pooling similar contributions developed in different locations by different research groups. In southern Africa the two largest free-ranging cheetah (Acinonyx jubatus) populations are in Namibia and Botswana, where the majority of cheetahs are located outside protected areas. Consequently, cheetah conservation in these two countries is focussed primarily on the free-ranging populations as well as the mitigation of conflict between humans and cheetahs. In contrast, in neighbouring South Africa, the majority of cheetahs are found in fenced reserves. Nonetheless, conflict between humans and cheetahs remains an issue here. Conservation effort in South Africa is also focussed on managing the geographically isolated cheetah populations as one large meta-population. Relocation is one option among a suite of tools used to resolve human-cheetah conflict in southern Africa. Successfully relocating captured problem cheetahs, and maintaining a viable free-ranging cheetah population, are two environmental issues in cheetah conservation forming the first case study in this thesis. The second case study involves the initiation of blooms of Lyngbya majuscula, a blue-green algae, in Deception Bay, Australia. L. majuscula is a toxic algal bloom which has severe health, ecological and economic impacts on the community located in the vicinity of this algal bloom. Deception Bay is an important tourist destination with its proximity to Brisbane, Australia’s third largest city. Lyngbya is one of several algae considered to be a Harmful Algal Bloom (HAB). This group of algae includes other widespread blooms such as red tides. The occurrence of Lyngbya blooms is not a local phenomenon, but blooms of this toxic weed occur in coastal waters worldwide. With the increase in frequency and extent of these HAB blooms, it is important to gain a better understanding of the underlying factors contributing to the initiation and sustenance of these blooms. This knowledge will contribute to better management practices and the identification of those management actions which could prevent or diminish the severity of these blooms.

Data collection, storage and retrieval with an underwater sensor network

In this paper we present a novel platform for underwater sensor networks to be used for long-term monitoring of coral reefs and �sheries. The sensor network consists of static and mobile underwater sensor nodes. The nodes communicate point-to-point using a novel high-speed optical communication system integrated into the TinyOS stack, and they broadcast using an acoustic protocol integrated in the TinyOS stack. The nodes have a variety of sensing capabilities, including cameras, water temperature, and pressure. The mobile nodes can locate and hover above the static nodes for data muling, and they can perform network maintenance functions such as deployment, relocation, and recovery. In this paper we describe the hardware and software architecture of this underwater sensor network. We then describe the optical and acoustic networking protocols and present experimental networking and data collected in a pool, in rivers, and in the ocean. Finally, we describe our experiments with mobility for data muling in this network.

An experimental and computational investigation of performance of Green Gully for reusing stormwater

A new stormwater quality improvement device (SQID) called ‘Green Gully’ has been designed and developed in this study with an aim to re-using stormwater for irrigating plants and trees. The main purpose of the Green Gully is to collect road runoff/stormwater, make it suitable for irrigation and provide an automated network system for watering roadside plants and irrigational areas. This paper presents the design and development of Green Gully along with experimental and computational investigations of the performance of Green Gully. Performance (in the form of efficiency, i.e. the percentage of water flow through the gully grate) was experimentally determined using a gully model in the laboratory first, then a three dimensional numerical model was developed and simulated to predict the efficiency of Green Gully as a function of flow rate. Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) code FLUENT was used for the simulation. GAMBIT was used for geometry creation and mesh generation. Experimental and simulation results are discussed and compared in this paper. The predicted efficiency was compared with the laboratory measured efficiency. It was found that the simulated results are in good agreement with the experimental results.

Service delivery framework : an architectural strategy for next-generation service delivery in business network

The next-generation of service-oriented architecture (SOA) needs to scale for flexible service consumption, beyond organizational and application boundaries, into communities, ecosystems and business networks. In wider and, ultimately, global settings, new capabilities are needed so that business partners can efficiently and reliably enable, adapt and expose services. Those services can then be discovered, ordered, consumed, metered and paid for, through new applications and opportunities, driven by third-parties in the global “village”. This trend is already underway, in different ways, through different early adopter market segments. This paper proposes an architectural strategy for the provisioning and delivery of services in communities, ecosystems and business networks – a Service Delivery Framework (SDF). The SDF is intended to support multiple industries and deployments where a SOA platform is needed for collaborating partners and diverse consumers. Specifically, it is envisaged that the SDF allows providers to publish their services into network directories so that they can be repurposed, traded and consumed, and leveraging network utilities like B2B gateways and cloud hosting. To support these different facets of service delivery, the SDF extends the conventional service provider, service broker and service consumer of the Web Services Architecture to include service gateway, service hoster, service aggregator and service channel maker.

Animating and sustaining niche social networks

Within the communicative space online Social Network Sites (SNS) afford, Niche Social Networks Sites (NSNS) have emerged around particular geographic, demographic or topic-based communities to provide what broader SNS do not: specified and targeted content for an engaged and interested community. Drawing on a research project developed at the Queensland University of Technology in conjunction with the Australian Smart Services Cooperative Research Centre that produced an NSNS based around Adventure Travel, this paper outlines the main drivers for community creation and sustainability within NSNS. The paper asks what factors motivate users to join and stay with these sites and what, if any, common patterns can be noted in their formation. It also outlines the main barriers to online participation and content creation in NSNS, and the similarities and differences in SNS and NSNS business models. Having built a community of 100 registered members, the staywild.com.au project was a living laboratory, enabling us to document the steps taken in producing a NSNS and cultivating and retaining active contributors. The paper incorporates observational analysis of user-generated content (UGC) and user profile submissions, statistical analysis of site usage, and findings from a survey of our membership pool in noting areas of success and of failure. In drawing on our project in this way we provide a template for future iterations of NSNS initiation and development across various other social settings: not only niche communities, but also the media and advertising with which they engage and interact. Positioned within the context of online user participation and UGC research, our paper concludes with a discussion of the ways in which the tools afforded by NSNS extend earlier understandings of online ‘communities of interest’. It also outlines the relevance of our research to larger questions about the diversity of the social media ecology.

A Bayesian network approach to modelling temporal behaviour of Lyngbya majuscula bloom initiation

Lyngbya majuscula is a cyanobacterium (blue-green algae) occurring naturally in tropical and subtropical coastal areas worldwide. Deception Bay, in Northern Moreton Bay, Queensland, has a history of Lyngbya blooms, and forms a case study for this investigation. The South East Queensland (SEQ) Healthy Waterways Partnership, collaboration between government, industry, research and the community, was formed to address issues affecting the health of the river catchments and waterways of South East Queensland. The Partnership coordinated the Lyngbya Research and Management Program (2005-2007) which culminated in a Coastal Algal Blooms (CAB) Action Plan for harmful and nuisance algal blooms, such as Lyngbya majuscula. This first phase of the project was predominantly of a scientific nature and also facilitated the collection of additional data to better understand Lyngbya blooms. The second phase of this project, SEQ Healthy Waterways Strategy 2007-2012, is now underway to implement the CAB Action Plan and as such is more management focussed. As part of the first phase of the project, a Science model for the initiation of a Lyngbya bloom was built using Bayesian Networks (BN). The structure of the Science Bayesian Network was built by the Lyngbya Science Working Group (LSWG) which was drawn from diverse disciplines. The BN was then quantified with annual data and expert knowledge. Scenario testing confirmed the expected temporal nature of bloom initiation and it was recommended that the next version of the BN be extended to take this into account. Elicitation for this BN thus occurred at three levels: design, quantification and verification. The first level involved construction of the conceptual model itself, definition of the nodes within the model and identification of sources of information to quantify the nodes. The second level included elicitation of expert opinion and representation of this information in a form suitable for inclusion in the BN. The third and final level concerned the specification of scenarios used to verify the model. The second phase of the project provides the opportunity to update the network with the newly collected detailed data obtained during the previous phase of the project. Specifically the temporal nature of Lyngbya blooms is of interest. Management efforts need to be directed to the most vulnerable periods to bloom initiation in the Bay. To model the temporal aspects of Lyngbya we are using Object Oriented Bayesian networks (OOBN) to create ‘time slices’ for each of the periods of interest during the summer. OOBNs provide a framework to simplify knowledge representation and facilitate reuse of nodes and network fragments. An OOBN is more hierarchical than a traditional BN with any sub-network able to contain other sub-networks. Connectivity between OOBNs is an important feature and allows information flow between the time slices. This study demonstrates more sophisticated use of expert information within Bayesian networks, which combine expert knowledge with data (categorized using expert-defined thresholds) within an expert-defined model structure. Based on the results from the verification process the experts are able to target areas requiring greater precision and those exhibiting temporal behaviour. The time slices incorporate the data for that time period for each of the temporal nodes (instead of using the annual data from the previous static Science BN) and include lag effects to allow the effect from one time slice to flow to the next time slice. We demonstrate a concurrent steady increase in the probability of initiation of a Lyngbya bloom and conclude that the inclusion of temporal aspects in the BN model is consistent with the perceptions of Lyngbya behaviour held by the stakeholders. This extended model provides a more accurate representation of the increased risk of algal blooms in the summer months and show that the opinions elicited to inform a static BN can be readily extended to a dynamic OOBN, providing more comprehensive information for decision makers.

Brain network efficiency and topology depend on the fiber tracking method: 11 tractography algorithms compared in 536 subjects

As connectivity analyses become more popular, claims are often made about how the brain's anatomical networks depend on age, sex, or disease. It is unclear how results depend on tractography methods used to compute fiber networks. We applied 11 tractography methods to high angular resolution diffusion images of the brain (4-Tesla 105-gradient HARDI) from 536 healthy young adults. We parcellated 70 cortical regions, yielding 70×70 connectivity matrices, encoding fiber density. We computed popular graph theory metrics, including network efficiency, and characteristic path lengths. Both metrics were robust to the number of spherical harmonics used to model diffusion (4th-8th order). Age effects were detected only for networks computed with the probabilistic Hough transform method, which excludes smaller fibers. Sex and total brain volume affected networks measured with deterministic, tensor-based fiber tracking but not with the Hough method. Each tractography method includes different fibers, which affects inferences made about the reconstructed networks.

La modernización entre cafetales : San José, Costa Rica, 1880-1930

This work examines the urban modernization of San José, Costa Rica, between 1880 and 1930, using a cultural approach to trace the emergence of the bourgeois city in a small Central American capital, within the context of order and progress. As proposed by Henri Lefebvre, Manuel Castells and Edward Soja, space is given its rightful place as protagonist. The city, subject of this study, is explored as a seat of social power and as the embodiment of a cultural transformation that took shape in that space, a transformation spearheaded by the dominant social group, the Liberal elite. An analysis of the product built environment allows us to understand why the city grew in a determined manner: how the urban space became organized and how its infrastructure and services distributed. Although the emphasis is on the Liberal heyday from 1880-1930, this study also examines the history of the city since its origins in the late colonial period through its consolidation as a capital during the independent era, in order to characterize the nineteenth century colonial city that prevailed up to 1890 s. A diverse array of primary sources including official acts, memoirs, newspaper sources, maps and plans, photographs, and travelogues are used to study the initial phase of San Jose s urban growth. The investigation places the first period of modern urban growth at the turn of the nineteenth century within the prevailing ideological and political context of Positivism and Liberalism. The ideas of the city s elite regarding progress were translated into and reflected in the physical transformation of the city and in the social construction of space. Not only the transformations but also the limits and contradictions of the process of urban change are examined. At the same time, the reorganization of the city s physical space and the beginnings of the ensanche are studied. Hygiene as an engine of urban renovation is explored by studying the period s new public infrastructure (including pipelines, sewer systems, and the use of asphalt pavement) as part of the Saneamiento of San José. The modernization of public space is analyzed through a study of the first parks, boulevards and monuments and the emergence of a new urban culture prominently displayed in these green spaces. Parks and boulevards were new public and secular places of power within the modern city, used by the elite to display and educate the urban population into the new civic and secular traditions. The study goes on to explore the idealized image of the modern city through an analysis of European and North American travelogues and photography. The new esthetic of theatrical-spectacular representation of the modern city constructed a visual guide of how to understand and come to know the city. A partial and selective image of generalized urban change presented only the bourgeois facade and excluded everything that challenged the idea of progress. The enduring patterns of spatial and symbolic exclusion built into Costa Rica s capital city at the dawn of the twentieth century shed important light on the long-term political social and cultural processes that have created the troubled urban landscapes of contemporary Latin America.

Being online, living offline: The influence of social ties over the appropriation of social network sites

Research on social network sites has examined how people integrate offline and online life, but with a particular emphasis on their use by friendship groups. We extend earlier work by examining a case in which offline ties are non-existent, but online ties strong. Our case is a study of bodybuilders, who explore their passion with like-minded offline 'strangers' in tightly integrated online communities. We show that the integration of offline and online life supports passion-centric activities, such as bodybuilding.

Duty cycling and power management with a network of energy harvesting sensors

In this paper, we study duty cycling and power management in a network of energy harvesting sensor (EHS) nodes. We consider a one-hop network, where K EHS nodes send data to a destination over a wireless fading channel. The goal is to find the optimum duty cycling and power scheduling across the nodes that maximizes the average sum data rate, subject to energy neutrality at each node. We adopt a two-stage approach to simplify the problem. In the inner stage, we solve the problem of optimal duty cycling of the nodes, subject to the short-term power constraint set by the outer stage. The outer stage sets the short-term power constraints on the inner stage to maximize the long-term expected sum data rate, subject to long-term energy neutrality at each node. Albeit suboptimal, our solutions turn out to have a surprisingly simple form: the duty cycle allotted to each node by the inner stage is simply the fractional allotted power of that node relative to the total allotted power. The sum power allotted is a clipped version of the sum harvested power across all the nodes. The average sum throughput thus ultimately depends only on the sum harvested power and its statistics. We illustrate the performance improvement offered by the proposed solution compared to other naive schemes via Monte-Carlo simulations.

Guided Ultrasonic Wave Propagation through Inaccessible Damage in a Folded Plate using Sensor-Actuator Network

Rapid diagnostics and virtual imaging of damages in complex structures like folded plate can help reduce the inspection time for guided wave based NDE and integrated SHM. Folded plate or box structure is one of the major structural components for increasing the structural strength. Damage in the folded plate, mostly in the form of surface breaking cracks in the inaccessible zone is a usual problem in aerospace structures. One side of the folded plate is attached (either riveted or bonded) to adjacent structure which is not accessible for immediate inspection. The sensor-actuator network in the form of a circular array is placed on the accessible side of the folded plate. In the present work, a circular array is employed for scanning the entire folded plate type structure for damage diagnosis and wave field visualization of entire structural panel. The method employs guided wave with relatively low frequency bandwidth of 100-300 kHz. Change in the response signal with respect to a baseline signal is used to construct a quantitative relationship with damage size parameters. Detecting damage in the folded plate by using this technique has significant potential for off-line and on-line SHM technologies. By employing this technique, surface breaking cracks on inaccessible face of the folded plate are detected without disassembly of structure in a realistic environment.

Aportes de la agricultura familiar a la disponibilidad de alimento en dos comunidades de Río San Juan, 2013

El desarrollo rural se debe cimentar en soluciones productivas de alta competitividad, sostenibilidad y en armonía con el ambiente, y satisfacer necesidades de alimentación, salud, educación, abrigo y vivienda. Razón por la cual se realizó un estudios evaluando la disponibilidad de alimentos aportados por la agricultura familiar en Morrito Urbano, Sector 3 y Los Pantanos, utilizando herramientas participativas, que permitieron evaluar las variables definidas para el estudio. En Los Pantanos el principal modelo productivo es de cultivos diversificados y en Morrito Urbano, sector 3 es el monocultivo, la mayoría de la producción agropecuaria es manejada por el sexo masculino como jefe de familia, la principal actividad femenina está ligada a las labores domésticas. La tenencia de la tierra para ambas comunidades es propia. Los rubros más frecuentes en la zona son: granos básicos, tubérculos, raíces, musáceas, hortalizas y cucúrbitas. Se identificó una agricultura de autoconsumo y en ocasiones venta de excedentes, el cultivo del arroz es vendido a lo externo. Las especies menores son destinadas al autoconsumo y comercio de excedentes, aprovechando también los derivados que estos generan, el ganado mayor no es frecuente, logramos identificar pocas personas que se dedican a la venta de novillos. En Morrito urbano, sector 3 el excedente productivo es vendido principalmente a el usuario consumidor, mientras que en Los pantanos, los principales compradores son los acopiadores. Las personas no realizan técnicas de valor agregado para las especies perennes, razón por lo cual la mayoría de la producción no es aprovechada en su totalidad. Palabras claves: Disponibilidad de alimentos, seguridad alimentaria, agricultura familiar, Rio San Juan.