Correcting the errors: Volatility forecast evaluation using high-frequency data and realized volatilities

We develop general model-free adjustment procedures for the calculation of unbiased volatility loss functions based on practically feasible realized volatility benchmarks. The procedures, which exploit recent nonparametric asymptotic distributional results, are both easy-to-implement and highly accurate in empirically realistic situations. We also illustrate that properly accounting for the measurement errors in the volatility forecast evaluations reported in the existing literature can result in markedly higher estimates for the true degree of return volatility predictability.

On the Front Line: frontal zones as priority at-sea conservation areas for mobile marine vertebrates

1.Identifying priority areas for marine vertebrate conservation is complex because species of conservation concern are highly mobile, inhabit dynamic habitats and are difficult to monitor. 2.Many marine vertebrates are known to associate with oceanographic fronts – physical interfaces at the transition between water masses – for foraging and migration, making them important candidate sites for conservation. Here, we review associations between marine vertebrates and fronts and how they vary with scale, regional oceanography and foraging ecology. 3.Accessibility, spatiotemporal predictability and relative productivity of front-associated foraging habitats are key aspects of their ecological importance. Predictable mesoscale (10s–100s km) regions of persistent frontal activity (‘frontal zones’) are particularly significant. 4.Frontal zones are hotspots of overlap between critical habitat and spatially explicit anthropogenic threats, such as the concentration of fisheries activity. As such, they represent tractable conservation units, in which to target measures for threat mitigation. 5.Front mapping via Earth observation (EO) remote sensing facilitates identification and monitoring of these hotspots of vulnerability. Seasonal or climatological products can locate biophysical hotspots, while near-real-time front mapping augments the suite of tools supporting spatially dynamic ocean management. 6.Synthesis and applications. Frontal zones are ecologically important for mobile marine vertebrates. We surmise that relative accessibility, predictability and productivity are key biophysical characteristics of ecologically significant frontal zones in contrasting oceanographic regions. Persistent frontal zones are potential priority conservation areas for multiple marine vertebrate taxa and are easily identifiable through front mapping via EO remote sensing. These insights are useful for marine spatial planning and marine biodiversity conservation, both within Exclusive Economic Zones and in the open oceans.

The (in)visible scar. Representation of the body in blogs by women with breast cancer

In this paper we analyze the representation of the body in blogs by women with breast cancer. Taking into account both texts and images, we study the representation of the body on the basis of the body problems proposed by Frank (1995): control, body-relatedness, other-relatedness and desire. In the blogs studied we find a desiring and dyadic body, which is understood as part of a network of affection and care. The diagnosis of cancer can generate both dissociation, when the body is experienced as a threat, and association, a wish to be connected to it. In relation to control, a clear will of predictability is observed but traces of assumption of contingency also appear.

The use of cues for attention in ancient Greek art: aspects that influence concentration in the work of art and its elements

The goal of this study is to identify cues for the cognitive process of attention in ancient Greek art, aiming to find confirmation of its possible use by ancient Greek audiences and artists. Evidence of cues that trigger attention’s psychological dispositions was searched through content analysis of image reproductions of ancient Greek sculpture and fine vase painting from the archaic to the Hellenistic period - ca. 7th -1st cent. BC. Through this analysis, it was possible to observe the presence of cues that trigger orientation to the work of art (i.e. amplification, contrast, emotional salience, simplification, symmetry), of a cue that triggers a disseminate attention to the parts of the work (i.e. distribution of elements) and of cues that activate selective attention to specific elements in the work of art (i.e. contrast of elements, salient color, central positioning of elements, composition regarding the flow of elements and significant objects). Results support the universality of those dispositions, probably connected with basic competencies that are hard-wired in the nervous system and in the cognitive processes.

Predictions of large events on a spring-block model

We study the predictability of a theoretical model for earthquakes, using a pattern recognition algorithm similar to the CN and M8 algorithms known in seismology. The model, which is a stochastic spring-block model with both global correlation and local interaction, becomes more predictable as the strength of the global correlation or the local interaction is increased.

'Mining money': science, legal technologies & working the borderlands of global finance

This paper explores the roles of science and market devices in the commodification of ‘nature’ and the configuration of flows of speculative capital. It focuses on mineral prospecting and the market for shares in ‘junior’ mining companies. In recent years these companies have expanded the reach of their exploration activities overseas, taking advantage of innovations in exploration methodologies and the liberalisation of fiscal and property regimes in ‘emerging’ mineral rich developing countries. Recent literature has explored how the reconfiguration of notions of ‘risk’ has structured the uneven distribution of rents. It is increasingly evident that neoliberal framing of environmental, political, social and economic risks has set in motion overflows that multinational mining capital had not bargained for (e.g. nationalisation, violence and political resistance). However, the role of ‘geological risk’ in animating flows of mining finance is often assumed as a ‘technical’ given. Yet geological knowledge claims, translated locally, designed to travel globally, assemble heterogeneous elements within distanciated regimes of metrology, valuation and commodity production. This paper explores how knowledge of nature is enrolled within systems of property relations, focusing on the genealogy of the knowledge practices that animate contemporary circuits of speculative mining finance. It argues that the financing of mineral prospecting mobilises pragmatic and situated forms of knowledge rather than actuarially driven calculations that promise predictability. A Canadian public enquiry struck in the wake of scandal associated with Bre-X’s prospecting activities in Indonesia is used to glean insights into the ways in which the construction of a system of public warrant to underpin financial speculation is predicated upon particular subjectivities and the outworking of everyday practices and struggles over ‘value’. Reflection on practical investments in processes of standardisation, rituals of verification and systems of accreditation reveal much about how the materiality of things shape the ways in which regional and global financial circuits are integrated, selectively transforming existing social relations and forms of knowledge production.

Centres, Peripheries and Party Systems: nested secession processes in Great Britain and Ireland

The seminal work of Lipset and Rokkan, which explores how party systems evolved organically from nineteenth-century roots, has generally been applied in states which have enjoyed a long-standing territorial identity. Their model's emphasis on stability and predictability can, however, be reconciled with circumstances where the very identity of the state itself is an issue. This article explores the capacity of the model to explain party divisions in three nested contexts: the pre-1922 United Kingdom, which encountered problems with its Celtic peripheries, and especially with Ireland; independent Ireland, where a unique party system developed, largely in response to a broader historical and geographical context; and Northern Ireland, where party politics fossilised in the 1880s, and began to unfreeze only in the 1970s. The article argues that the Lipset–Rokkan model casts valuable light on these processes, which in turn contribute to the theoretical richness of the model.

The role of formal structure in liking for popular music

The effect of restructuring the form of three unfamiliar pop/rock songs was investigated in two experiments. In the first experiment, listeners' judgements of the likely location of sections of novel popular songs were explored by requiring participants to place the eight sections (Intro - Verse 1 - Chorus 1 - Verse 2 - Chorus 2 - Bridge (solo) - Chorus 3 - Extro) of the songs into the locations they thought them most likely to occur within the song. Results revealed that participants were able to place the sections in approximately the right location with some accuracy, though they were unable to differentiate between choruses. In Experiment 2, three versions of each of the songs were presented in three different structures: intact (original form), medium restructured (the sections in a moderately changed order), and highly restructured (more severe restructuring). The results show that listeners' judgments of predictability and liking were largely uninfluenced by the restructuring of the songs, in line with findings for classical music. Moment-by-moment liking judgements of the songs demonstrated a change in liking judgements with repeated exposure, though the trend was downwards with repeated exposure rather than upwards. Detailed analysis of moment-by-moment judgements at the ends and beginnings of sections showed that listeners were able to respond quickly to intact songs, but not to restructured songs. The results suggest that concatenism prevails in listening to popular song at the expense of paying attention to larger structural features. © 2012 by the regents of the university of california all rights reserved.

Are We Ready for SDN? Implementation Challenges for Software-Defined Networks

Cloud services are exploding, and organizations are converging their data centers in order to take advantage of the predictability, continuity, and quality of service delivered by virtualization technologies. In parallel, energy-efficient and high-security networking is of increasing importance. Network operators, and service and product providers require a new network solution to efficiently tackle the increasing demands of this changing network landscape. Software-defined networking has emerged as an efficient network technology capable of supporting the dynamic nature of future network functions and intelligent applications while lowering operating costs through simplified hardware, software, and management. In this article, the question of how to achieve a successful carrier grade network with software-defined networking is raised. Specific focus is placed on the challenges of network performance, scalability, security, and interoperability with the proposal of potential solution directions.

Associations between repetitive questioning, resistance to change, temper outbursts and anxiety in Prader-Willi and Fragile-X syndromes

The behavioural phenotypes of Prader-Willi (PWS) and Fragile-X (FraX) syndromes both comprise repetitive behaviours with differences between the profiles. In this study we investigated the context and antecedents to the repetitive behaviours and the association with other behavioural phenotypic characteristics in order to generate testable hypotheses regarding the cause of the behaviours.

The parents or carers of 46 children with PWS (mean age 14.1 years; 20 girls), and 33 boys with FraX (mean age 13.11 years) were interviewed about their children's repetitive behaviour in a semi-structured format.

Children showed negative emotional behaviour (PWS: 87.0%; FraX: 79.4%) and repetitive questions (PWS: 78.3%; FraX: 73.5%) following changes in routine or expectations. Significantly more temper outbursts were reported to follow changes in children with PWS (89.1%) compared with boys with FraX (41.2%) (chi(2) = 20.93; P <0.001). Anxiety that was frequently associated with repetitive and self-injurious behaviours in boys with FraX, followed changes in significantly more boys with FraX (76.5%) compared with children with PWS (6.5%) (chi(2) = 43.19, P <0.001).

On the basis of these reports and existing literature, we hypothesise that decreases in predictability are aversive to children with PWS and FraX. We also hypothesise that these children have a propensity to show a syndrome-related pattern of behaviour (temper outbursts in PWS and displays of anxiety in FraX) when an event in the environment has this aversive property. We hypothesise that questions may be reinforcing to children in their own right by increasing the predictability of the environment. We outline how a specific cognitive deficit in the endophenotypes associated with both PWS and FraX could be investigated as a potential explanation for the hypothesised aversive properties of decreased predictability.

Task-switching deficits and repetitive behaviour in genetic neurodevelopmental disorders: Data from children with Prader-Willi syndrome chromosome 15 q11-q13 deletion and boys with Fragile X syndrome

Prader-Willi syndrome (PWS) and Fragile X syndrome (FraX) are associated with distinctive cognitive and behavioural profiles. We examined whether repetitive behaviours in the two syndromes were associated with deficits in specific executive functions. PWS, FraX, and typically developing (TD) children were assessed for executive functioning using the Test of Everyday Attention for Children and an adapted Simon spatial interference task. Relative to the TD children, children with PWS and FraX showed greater costs of attention switching on the Simon task, but after controlling for intellectual ability, these switching deficits were only significant in the PWS group. Children with PWS and FraX also showed significantly increased preference for routine and differing profiles of other specific types of repetitive behaviours. A measure of switch cost from the Simon task was positively correlated to scores on preference for routine questionnaire items and was strongly associated with scores on other items relating to a preference for predictability. It is proposed that a deficit in attention switching is a component of the endophenotypes of both PWS and FraX and is associated with specific behaviours. This proposal is discussed in the context of neurocognitive pathways between genes and behaviour.

Thanking the Greeks: The Crisis of the Rule of Law in EU Enlargement Regulation

This paper showcases the weaknesses of EU enlargement law and demonstrates how one Member State – namely, Greece – is notable for abusing this weakness, for harming the candidate countries, the EU, and the institutions alike, for stripping the EU position of its predictability, and for undermining the EU Commission’s efforts. Accordingly, Greece has severely incapacitated the key procedural rule of law component of the EU’s enlargement regulation, turning it into a randomised political game and ignoring any long-term goals of stability, prosperity, and peace that the process is to stand for. Following a walk through Greece’s engagement throughout a number of enlargement rounds, the paper concludes that the duty of loyalty – which is presumably able to discipline Member States that undermine the common effort – should find a new meaning in the context of EU enlargement.

Enhanced ethernet switching technology for adaptive hard real-time applications: Tecnologia de comutação ethernet melhorada para aplicações adaptativas e críticas de tempo-real

Os Sistemas Embarcados Distribuídos (SEDs) estão, hoje em dia, muito difundidos em vastas áreas, desde a automação industrial, a automóveis, aviões, até à distribuição de energia e protecção do meio ambiente. Estes sistemas são, essencialmente, caracterizados pela integração distribuída de aplicações embarcadas, autónomas mas cooperantes, explorando potenciais vantagens em termos de modularidade, facilidade de manutenção, custos de instalação, tolerância a falhas, entre outros. Contudo, o ambiente operacional onde se inserem estes tipos de sistemas pode impor restrições temporais rigorosas, exigindo que o sistema de comunicação subjacente consiga transmitir mensagens com garantias temporais. Contudo, os SEDs apresentam uma crescente complexidade, uma vez que integram subsistemas cada vez mais heterogéneos, quer ao nível do tráfego gerado, quer dos seus requisitos temporais. Em particular, estes subsistemas operam de forma esporádica, isto é, suportam mudanças operacionais de acordo com estímulos exteriores. Estes subsistemas também se reconfiguram dinamicamente de acordo com a actualização dos seus requisitos e, ainda, têm lidar com um número variável de solicitações de outros subsistemas. Assim sendo, o nível de utilização de recursos pode variar e, desta forma, as políticas de alocação estática tornam-se muito ineficientes. Consequentemente, é necessário um sistema de comunicação capaz de suportar com eficácia reconfigurações e adaptações dinâmicas. A tecnologia Ethernet comutada tem vindo a emergir como uma solução sólida para fornecer comunicações de tempo-real no âmbito dos SEDs, como comprovado pelo número de protocolos de tempo-real que foram desenvolvidos na última década. No entanto, nenhum dos protocolos existentes reúne as características necessárias para fornecer uma eficiente utilização da largura de banda e, simultaneamente, para respeitar os requisitos impostos pelos SEDs. Nomeadamente, a capacidade para controlar e policiar tráfego de forma robusta, conjugada com suporte à reconfiguração e adaptação dinâmica, não comprometendo as garantias de tempo-real. Esta dissertação defende a tese de que, pelo melhoramento dos comutadores Ethernet para disponibilizarem mecanismos de reconfiguração e isolamento de tráfego, é possível suportar aplicações de tempo-real críticas, que são adaptáveis ao ambiente onde estão inseridas.Em particular, é mostrado que as técnicas de projecto, baseadas em componentes e apoiadas no escalonamento hierárquico de servidores de tráfego, podem ser integradas nos comutadores Ethernet para alcançar as propriedades desejadas. Como suporte, é fornecida, também, uma solução para instanciar uma hierarquia reconfigurável de servidores de tráfego dentro do comutador, bem como a análise adequada ao modelo de escalonamento. Esta última fornece um limite superior para o tempo de resposta que os pacotes podem sofrer dentro dos servidores de tráfego, com base unicamente no conhecimento de um dado servidor e na hierarquia actual, isto é, sem o conhecimento das especifidades do tráfego dentro dos outros servidores. Finalmente, no âmbito do projecto HaRTES foi construído um protótipo do comutador Ethernet, o qual é baseado no paradigma “Flexible Time-Triggered”, que permite uma junção flexível de uma fase síncrona para o tráfego controlado pelo comutador e uma fase assíncrona que implementa a estrutura hierárquica de servidores referidos anteriormente. Além disso, as várias experiências práticas realizadas permitiram validar as propriedades desejadas e, consequentemente, a tese que fundamenta esta dissertação.

Área de projecto de 12º ano de escolaridade: seu potencial educativo

A reforma curricular do ensino secundário em Portugal, enquadrada pelo Decreto-Lei nº. 74/2004, de 26 de Março, com as alterações introduzidas pelo Decreto-Lei nº. 24/2006, de 6 de Fevereiro, integra no desenho curricular dos cursos Científico- Humanísticos a Área de Projeto (AP). Esta área curricular não disciplinar, inscrita no plano de estudo dos referidos cursos, centra-se na realização de projectos concretos por parte dos alunos tendo em vista o desenvolvimento de uma visão integradora do saber, a promoção da sua orientação escolar e profissional e facilitar a sua aproximação ao mundo do trabalho (DGIDC, 2006, p.5). Diversos autores (Caamaño, 2005; Cachapuz et al., 2002; Pedrosa, 2001; Santos, 1999; Pérez, 1998; entre outros) apontam para a necessidade de a escola criar situações formativas que permitam aos alunos não só desenvolverem competências de pesquisa, selecção e organização de informação, mas também de estabelecerem relações entre os conhecimentos, de forma a adquirirem um saber integrado e a desenvolverem ainda competências de vivência numa sociedade que se rege por princípios de uma cidadania democrática e participativa. Sendo recente a implementação da Área de Projecto no ensino secundário, e face às actuais exigências sociais de criatividade e de inovação e à necessidade de intervir no futuro e de o conter dentro de limites previsíveis, partimos para este estudo com a seguinte questão: Qual o contributo da área curricular não disciplinar Área de Projecto do 12º ano - cursos de Ciências e Tecnologias - para o desenvolvimento de competências requeridas a um cidadão do século XXI? Perante esta questão, definimos como objectivos para a presente investigação: (a) estudar as potencialidades educativas da AP (12º ano) como contributo para o desenvolvimento de competências de cidadania; (b) estudar as potencialidades educativas da AP (12º ano) para a educação em e pelas ciências e (c) contribuir para o desenvolvimento do conhecimento didáctico sobre a relevância da AP no ensino secundário. Face aos objectivos definidos, delineámos uma metodologia de investigação qualitativa com características de estudo de caso, fazendo recurso de diversos instrumentos de recolha de dados (entrevista, questionário, observação directa, análise documental), e da análise de conteúdo como técnica principal de análise de dados. Os participantes privilegiados do estudo foram, para além da investigadora, alunos de uma turma do 12º ano e a respectiva professora de Área de Projecto. O estudo de caso consistiu no acompanhamento da concepção e do desenvolvimento da AP, numa turma de 12 alunos do 12º ano de escolaridade da cidade da Horta (Açores/Portugal), bem como na avaliação do seu impacto nos alunos da referida turma. Os resultados da investigação apontam, no caso concreto em estudo, para um elevado potencial educativo desta área curricular (traduzido por exemplo, ao nível de competências processuais e atitudinais), mas também para uma natureza excessivamente formal no desenvolvimento curricular de AP, incluindo a avaliação das aprendizagens dos alunos. Os resultados sugerem ainda a necessidade de se desenvolver uma didáctica especifica desta área curricular, que valorize as características de cada aluno e as especificidades do seu contexto, bem como as metodologias de trabalho a serem utilizadas, por forma a evitar que esta área curricular se transforme em mais uma disciplina do plano de estudos dos alunos. Vários caminhos de investigação futura emergem do estudo realizado. A título exemplificativo refira-se a necessidade de estudar como a formação de professores pode contribuir para o desenvolvimento profissional dos mesmos no âmbito da leccionação de AP e de outras similares.