Empirical study of correlated survival times for recurrent events with proportional hazards margins and the effect of correlation and censoring.

Background: In longitudinal studies where subjects experience recurrent incidents over a period of time, such as respiratory infections, fever or diarrhea, statistical methods are required to take into account the within-subject correlation. Methods: For repeated events data with censored failure, the independent increment (AG), marginal (WLW) and conditional (PWP) models are three multiple failure models that generalize Cox"s proportional hazard model. In this paper, we revise the efficiency, accuracy and robustness of all three models under simulated scenarios with varying degrees of within-subject correlation, censoring levels, maximum number of possible recurrences and sample size. We also study the methods performance on a real dataset from a cohort study with bronchial obstruction. Results: We find substantial differences between methods and there is not an optimal method. AG and PWP seem to be preferable to WLW for low correlation levels but the situation reverts for high correlations. Conclusions: All methods are stable in front of censoring, worsen with increasing recurrence levels and share a bias problem which, among other consequences, makes asymptotic normal confidence intervals not fully reliable, although they are well developed theoretically.

'Tommy Atkins' mango trees subjected to high density planting in subhumid tropical climate in northeastern Brazil

The objective of this work was to evaluate the effects of high density planting on 'Tommy Atkins' mango trees cultivated in subhumid warm tropical climate in northeastern Brazil. Treatments consisted of five spacial arrangements of plants (8x5 m, 7x4 m, 6x3 m, 5x2 m and 4x2 m), which resulted in the following plant densities: 250 (control), 357, 555, 1,000 and 1,250 plants per hectare. Plant vegetative and reproductive variables, besides fruit quality parameters, were evaluated at seven and eight years after transplantation to the field. In general, high density planting caused reduction in vegetative and reproductive variables of individual mango trees, but had little influence on fruit quality. Above 555 plants per hectare, a significant decrease was observed in mango tree growth. Furthermore, there were decreases in the percentage of flowering, fruit yield per plant and per area. However, planting density up to 357 plants per hectare, in spite of decreasing plant growth and fruit yield per tree, increases fruit yield per area in 30% in comparison to the control.

Influence of rootstocks and pruning times on yield and on nutrient content and extraction in 'Niagara Rosada' grapevine

The objective of this work was to evaluate the influence of rootstocks and pruning times on yield and on nutrient content and extraction by pruned branches and harvested bunches of 'Niagara Rosada' grapevine in subtropical climate. The rootstocks 'IAC 766', 'IAC 572', 'IAC 313', 'IAC 571-6', and '106-8 Mgt' were evaluated. Treatments consisted of a combination between five rootstocks and three pruning times. At pruning, fresh and dry matter mass of branches were evaluated to estimate biomass accumulation. At harvest, yield was estimated by weighing of bunches per plant. Branches and bunches were sampled at pruning and at harvest, respectively, for nutrient content analysis. Nutrient content and dry matter mass of branches and bunches were used to estimate total nutrient extraction. 'Niagara Rosada' grapevine grafted onto the 'IAC 572' rootstock had the highest yield and dry matter mass of bunches, which were significantly different from the ones observed in 'Niagara Rosada'/'IAC 313'. 'Niagara Rosada' grafted onto the 'IAC 572' rootstock extracted the largest quantity of K, P, Mg, S, Cu, and Fe, differing from 'IAC 313' and 'IAC 766' in K and P extraction, and from '106-8 Mgt' in Mg and S extraction. Winter pruning results in higher yield, dry matter accumulation by branches, and total nutrient content and extraction.

Performance of 'Rocha' and 'Santa Maria' pears as affected by planting density

The objective of this work was to evaluate the performance of 'Rocha' and 'Santa Maria' pears at two planting densities. The experiment was carried out during the 2011/2012, 2012/2013, and 2013/2014 growing seasons, in one-year-old orchards (2011/2012) of 'Rocha' and 'Santa Maria' pears, trained in a central-leader system and planted in two densities (2,000 and 4,000 trees per hectare). The assessed parameters were: production per hectare, production per tree, yield efficiency, number of fruit per tree, average fruit weight, trunk diameter increment, fruit firmness, and soluble solid contents. The cumulative yield of 'Rocha' is greater at the higher planting density, whereas the yield efficiency of 'Santa Maria' increases at the lower planting density, as the trees get more mature. Trunk diameter of 'Rocha' also increases at the lower planting density. However, fruit quality parameters in both cultivars are little affected by planting density.

Federal Dynamics in Times of Economic and Financial Crisis

The global economic and financial crisis is a challenge for all governments, but particularly for federal states because divided and/or shared territorial powers make federations susceptible to coordination problems in fiscal policy making. This article explores the effects of the ongoing crisis on federal relations. Three kinds of problems that may become the cause of federal tensions and conflicts are evoked: opportunism of subgovernments, centralisation and erosion of solidarity among members of the federation. Our analysis of fiscal policies and federal conflicts of 11 federations between 2007 and the present reveals three kinds of coordination problems: shirking in the use of federal government grants, rent-seeking in equalisation payments, and over-borrowing and over-spending. Our results show that shirking remained limited to few cases and occurred only in the first part of the crisis. However, rent-seeking and over-borrowing and over-spending led to a reduction of solidarity among subgovernments and to increased regulation of the fiscal discretion of the members of the federation. Subsequently, tensions in federal relations increased - although only in one case did this challenged the federal order.

Religion in Times of Crisis

Religion is alive and well all over the world, especially in times of personal, political, and social crisis. Even in Europe, long regarded the most "secular" continent, religion has taken centre stage in how people respond to the crises associated with modernity, or how they interact with the nation-state. In this book, scholars working in and on Europe offer fresh perspectives on how religion provides answers to existential crisis, how crisis increases the salience of religious identities and cultural polarization, and how religion is contributing to changes in the modern world in Europe and beyond. Cases from Poland to Pakistan and from Ireland to Zimbabwe, among others, demonstrate the complexity and ambivalence of religion's role in the contemporary world.

The Omega model: from bankruptcy to occupation times in the red

Ruin occurs the first time when the surplus of a company or an institution is negative. In the Omega model, it is assumed that even with a negative surplus, the company can do business as usual until bankruptcy occurs. The probability of bankruptcy at a point of time only depends on the value of the negative surplus at that time. Under the assumption of Brownian motion for the surplus, the expected discounted value of a penalty at bankruptcy is determined, and hence the probability of bankruptcy. There is an intrinsic relation between the probability of no bankruptcy and an exposure random variable. In special cases, the distribution of the total time the Brownian motion spends below zero is found, and the Laplace transform of the integral of the negative part of the Brownian motion is expressed in terms of the Airy function of the first kind.

Fruit size and quality of pineapples cv. Vitória in response to micronutrient doses and way of application and to soil covers

The objective of this study was to evaluate the effects of foundation and leaf fertilization with micronutrients on fruit size and quality of pineapple cv. Vitória under the environmental conditions of the Baixo Acaraú irrigated perimeter in Northern Ceará State, Brazil, under two covers (bagana and black plastic) of the sandy soil of low fertility. The experimental design was a randomized split blocks one with four levels of soil dressing and four levels of foliar fertilization, with five replications. Micronutrient soil dressing was studied as FTE-12 at doses of 0, 60, 120 and 180 kg ha-1. The four levels of foliar fertilization were: LF0 (without fertilizer), LF 1 (15 leaf fertilization, using the amount of 1158.75 g Fe ha-1, 844.65 g Mn ha-1, 391.5 g ha-1 Zn, 322.65 g ha-1 Cu and 216 g ha-1 B), LF2 (15 leaf fertilization, using twice the quantities of level LF1) and LF3 (15 leaf fertilization, using three times the amount of level LF1). At 13 months after planting the micropropagated plantlets was carried out the floral induction treatment and five months later the fruit harvest determining the following variables: fruit weight and median diameter, soluble solids content (SS) and titratable acidity (TA). Both fruit weight and diameter increased with increasing doses of micronutrients applied to the soil and to the leaves, of plants grown both on bagana soil cover and plastic mulch. On the other hand fruit pulp quality was little affected by the treatments studied. There were a small increase of SS contents for plants grown on bagana soil cover and a small decrease of titratable acidity for those grown on plastic mulch, in both cases just in response to micronutrient foliar application.

Quince 'CPP': new dwarf rootstock for pear trees on organic and high density planting

In Brazil, pear production presents the same incipient situation over the last 15 years, due mostly to low production technology. In this context, this study aimed to evaluate the development, growth and production of the pear tree cultivars Cascatense, Tenra and Hosui grafted on 'CPP' quince rootstock, using 'FT' pear as interstem. This trial was carried out in Guarapuava, State of Paraná, Southern region of Brazil, by five productive cycles. The pear trees were planted in September of 2004, spaced at 1.0 x 4.0 m (2,500 trees ha-1), trained to the modified central leader, on a Four-wire trellis, with drip irrigation and cultivated under organic production system. The following variables were evaluated: sprouting, anthesis, yield, fruit weight, soluble solids content, titratable acidity, pulp firmness, canopy area per plant and per hectare and trunk diameter. The pear tree cv. Tenra was outstanding most of the years for fruit yield, and, consequently, showed the highest accumulated yield over the period (51.6 t ha-1), followed by the cultivars Cascatense (39.7 t ha-1) and Hosui (18.7 t ha-1). All pear cultivars presented suitable physical-chemical characteristics for commercial purposes, with minimal average soluble solids content of 11% at harvest. The maximum canopy area per hectare was attained for cv. Cascatense (3063.2 m²), that was considered insufficient for a high yield. These results suggest the needs for studies with higher density planting and other training systems, searching optimize canopy volume. One of the most limiting factors in the organic pear orchard was the incidence of pear dieback caused by Botriosphaeria dothidea, severe more often in pear trees cv. Hosui.

SOIL ATTRIBUTES THREE YEARS AFTER MAKING RIDGES AND OR DRAINS FOR PLANTING GRAPEVINE ROOTSTOCK

RESUMO Os atributos do solo estão relacionados com o desenvolvimento e a produção das culturas, tanto anuais como perenes. O presente trabalho teve como objetivo determinar os atributos químicos e físicos do solo três anos após a aplicação de sistemas de manejo para implantação de porta-enxertos de videira, em um Nitossolo Vermelho com textura muito argilosa. Os sistemas de manejo consistiram na confecção ou não de camalhões e/ou de drenos antes da implantação das mudas de porta-enxertos Dog Ridge. Os atributos químicos (pH em água e teores de matéria orgânica e de macronutrientes) foram determinados em amostras coletadas na linha da cultura, nas camadas de 0-0,1; 0,1-0,2; 0,2-0,3 e 0,3-0,4 m de profundidade. Os atributos físicos do solo (teor de argila, densidade, porosidade, resistência à penetração e estabilidade dos agregados) foram determinados em amostras coletadas com estrutura preservada nas camadas de 0,025-0,075; 0,125-0,175; 0,225-0,275 e 0,325-0,375 m de profundidade. Também foram determinadas a massa seca de raízes do portaenxerto nas camadas de 0-0,2 e 0,2-0,4 m de profundidade e suas correlações com os atributos do solo. A confecção de camalhões alterou significativamente a maioria dos atributos químicos do solo e proporcionou maior uniformidade nos valores em profundidade, criando condições mais favoráveis ao crescimento radicular nas camadas mais profundas. Os atributos físicos foram menos afetados do que os químicos pela confecção de camalhões ou drenos, e não foram observados valores restritivos ao crescimento radicular nas camadas amostradas após quatro anos da aplicação dos sistemas de manejo do solo. A confecção de drenos alterou menos os atributos químicos e físicos do solo do que a confecção de camalhões.

Exit times in non-Markovian drifting continuous-time random-walk processes

By appealing to renewal theory we determine the equations that the mean exit time of a continuous-time random walk with drift satisfies both when the present coincides with a jump instant or when it does not. Particular attention is paid to the corrections ensuing from the non-Markovian nature of the process. We show that when drift and jumps have the same sign the relevant integral equations can be solved in closed form. The case when holding times have the classical Erlang distribution is considered in detail.