A note on the pooling of individual panic unit root tests

One of the most cited studies in recent years within the field of nonstationary panel data analysis is that of Bai and Ng (2004), in which the authors propose PANIC, a new framework for analyzing the nonstationarity of panels with idiosyncratic and common components. The problem is that the asymptotic validity of PANIC as a platform for constructing pooled panel unit root tests based on averaging is not fully proven. This paper provides the required results, whose usefulness is verified through simulations. © 2009 Cambridge University Press.

Fool me if you can: mimicking attacks and anti-attacks in cyberspace

Botnets have become major engines for malicious activities in cyberspace nowadays. To sustain their botnets and disguise their malicious actions, botnet owners are mimicking legitimate cyber behavior to fly under the radar. This poses a critical challenge in anomaly detection. In this paper, we use web browsing on popular web sites as an example to tackle this problem. First of all, we establish a semi-Markov model for browsing behavior. Based on this model, we find that it is impossible to detect mimicking attacks based on statistics if the number of active bots of the attacking botnet is sufficiently large (no less than the number of active legitimate users). However, we also find it is hard for botnet owners to satisfy the condition to carry out a mimicking attack most of the time. With this new finding, we conclude that mimicking attacks can be discriminated from genuine flash crowds using second order statistical metrics. We define a new fine correntropy metrics and show its effectiveness compared to others. Our real world data set experiments and simulations confirm our theoretical claims. Furthermore, the findings can be widely applied to similar situations in other research fields.

Defence against code injection attacks

Code injection attacks are considered serious threats to the Internet users. In this type of attack the attacker injects malicious codes in the user programs to change or divert the execution flows. In this paper we explore the contemporary defence strategies against code injection attacks (CIAs) and underline their limitations. To overcome these limitations, we suggest a number of countermeasure mechanisms for protecting from CIAs. Our key idea relies on the multiplexing technique to preserve the exact return code to ensure the integrity of program execution trace of shell code. This technique also maintains a FIFO (first in first out) queue to defeat the conflict state when multiple caller method makes a call simultaneously. Finally, our technique can provide better performance, in terms of protection and speed, in some point compared to the CFI (control flow integrity) as well as CPM (code pointer masking) techniques.

Speculative attacks on debts and optimum currency area: a welfare analysis

Traditionally the issue of an optimum currency area is based on the theoretical underpinnings developed in the 1960s by McKinnon [13], Kenen [12] and mainly Mundell [14], who is concerned with the benefits of lowering transaction costs vis-à- vis adjustments to asymmetrical shocks. Recently, this theme has been reappraised with new aspects included in the analysis, such as: incomplete markets, credibility of monetary policy and seigniorage, among others. For instance, Neumeyer [15] develops a general equilibrium model with incomplete asset markets and shows that a monetary union is desirable when the welfare gains of eliminating the exchange rate volatility are greater than the cost of reducing the number of currencies to hedge against risks. In this paper, we also resort to a general equilibrium model to evaluate financial aspects of an optimum currency area. Our focus is to appraise the welfare of a country heavily dependent on foreign capital that may suffer a speculative attack on its public debt. The welfare analysis uses as reference the self-fulfilling debt crisis model of Cole and Kehoe ([6], [7] and [8]), which is employed here to represent dollarization. Under this regime, the national government has no control over its monetary policy, the total public debt is denominated in dollars and it is in the hands of international bankers. To describe a country that is a member of a currency union, we modify the original Cole-Kehoe model by including public debt denominated in common currency, only purchased by national consumers. According to this rule, the member countries regain some influence over the monetary policy decision, which is, however, dependent on majority voting. We show that for specific levels of dollar debt, to create inflation tax on common-currency debt in order to avoid an external default is more desirable than to suspend its payment, which is the only choice available for a dollarized economy when foreign creditors decide not to renew their loans.

Speculative attacks, openness and crises

In this paper we propose a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model to evaluate financial adjustments that some emerging market economies went through to overcome external crises during the latest decades, such as default and local currency devaluation. We assume that real devaluation can be used to avoid external debt default, to improve trade balance and to reduce the real public debt level denominated in local currency. Such effects increase the government ability to deal with external crisis, but also have costs in terms of welfare, related to expected inflation, reductions in private investments and higher interest to be paid over the public debt. We conclude that openness improves expected welfare as it allows for a better devaluation-response technology against crises. We also present results for 32 middle-income countries, verifying that the proposed model can indicate, in a stylized way, the preferences for default-devaluation options and the magnitude of the currency depreciation required to overcome 48 external crises occurred as from 1971. Finally, as we construct our model based on the Cole-Kehoe self-fulfilling debt crisis model ([7]), adding local debt and trade, it is important to say that their policy alternatives to leave the crisis zone remains in our extended model, namely, to reduce the external debt level and to lengthen its maturity.

Speculative attacks on debts, dollarization and optimum currency areas

The purpose of this article is to contribute to the discussion of the financial aspects of dollarization and optimum currency areas. Based on the model of self-fulfilling debt crisis developed by Cole and Kehoe [4], it is possible to evaluate the comparative welfare of economies, which either keep their local currency and an independent monetary policy, join a monetary union or adopt dollarization. In the two former monetary regimes, governments can issue debt denominated, respectively, in local and common currencies, which is completely purchased by national consumers. Given this ability, governments may decide to impose an inflation tax on these assets and use the revenues so collected to avoid an external debt crises. While the country that issues its own currency takes this decision independently, a country belonging to a monetary union depends on the joint decision of all member countries about the common monetary policy. In this way, an external debt crises may be avoided under the local and common currency regimes, if, respectively, the national and the union central banks have the ability to do monetary policy, represented by the reduction in the real return on the bonds denominated in these currencies. This resource is not available under dollarization. In a dollarized economy, the loss of control over national monetary policy does not allow adjustments for exogenous shocks that asymmetrically affect the client and the anchor countries, but credibility is strengthened. On the other hand, given the ability to inflate the local currency, the central bank may be subject to the political influence of a government not so strongly concerned with fiscal discipline, which reduces the welfare of the economy. In a similar fashion, under a common currency regime, the union central bank may also be under the influence of a group of countries to inflate the common currency, even though they do not face external restrictions. Therefore, the local and common currencies could be viewed as a way to provide welfare enhancing bankruptcy, if it is not abused. With these peculiarities of monetary regimes in mind, we simulate the levels of economic welfare for each, employing recent data for the Brazilian economy.

How the full opening of the capital account to highly liquid financial markets led Latin America to two and a half cycles of ‘mania, panic and crash’

Latin America has recently experienced three cycles of capital inflows, the first two ending in major financial crises. The first took place between 1973 and the 1982 ‘debt-crisis’. The second took place between the 1989 ‘Brady bonds’ agreement (and the beginning of the economic reforms and financial liberalisation that followed) and the Argentinian 2001/2002 crisis, and ended up with four major crises (as well as the 1997 one in East Asia) — Mexico (1994), Brazil (1999), and two in Argentina (1995 and 2001/2). Finally, the third inflow-cycle began in 2003 as soon as international financial markets felt reassured by the surprisingly neo-liberal orientation of President Lula’s government; this cycle intensified in 2004 with the beginning of a (purely speculative) commodity price-boom, and actually strengthened after a brief interlude following the 2008 global financial crash — and at the time of writing (mid-2011) this cycle is still unfolding, although already showing considerable signs of distress. The main aim of this paper is to analyse the financial crises resulting from this second cycle (both in LA and in East Asia) from the perspective of Keynesian/ Minskyian/ Kindlebergian financial economics. I will attempt to show that no matter how diversely these newly financially liberalised Developing Countries tried to deal with the absorption problem created by the subsequent surges of inflow (and they did follow different routes), they invariably ended up in a major crisis. As a result (and despite the insistence of mainstream analysis), these financial crises took place mostly due to factors that were intrinsic (or inherent) to the workings of over-liquid and under-regulated financial markets — and as such, they were both fully deserved and fairly predictable. Furthermore, these crises point not just to major market failures, but to a systemic market failure: evidence suggests that these crises were the spontaneous outcome of actions by utility-maximising agents, freely operating in friendly (‘light-touch’) regulated, over-liquid financial markets. That is, these crises are clear examples that financial markets can be driven by buyers who take little notice of underlying values — i.e., by investors who have incentives to interpret information in a biased fashion in a systematic way. Thus, ‘fat tails’ also occurred because under these circumstances there is a high likelihood of self-made disastrous events. In other words, markets are not always right — indeed, in the case of financial markets they can be seriously wrong as a whole. Also, as the recent collapse of ‘MF Global’ indicates, the capacity of ‘utility-maximising’ agents operating in (excessively) ‘friendly-regulated’ and over-liquid financial market to learn from previous mistakes seems rather limited.

How the full opening of the capital account to highly liquid financial markets led Latin America to two and a half cycles of ‘mania, panic and crash’

Latin America has recently experienced three cycles of capital inflows, the first two ending in major financial crises. The first took place between 1973 and the 1982 ‘debt-crisis’. The second took place between the 1989 ‘Brady bonds’ agreement (and the beginning of the economic reforms and financial liberalisation that followed) and the Argentinian 2001/2002 crisis, and ended up with four major crises (as well as the 1997 one in East Asia) — Mexico (1994), Brazil (1999), and two in Argentina (1995 and 2001/2). Finally, the third inflow-cycle began in 2003 as soon as international financial markets felt reassured by the surprisingly neo-liberal orientation of President Lula’s government; this cycle intensified in 2004 with the beginning of a (purely speculative) commodity price-boom, and actually strengthened after a brief interlude following the 2008 global financial crash — and at the time of writing (mid-2011) this cycle is still unfolding, although already showing considerable signs of distress. The main aim of this paper is to analyse the financial crises resulting from this second cycle (both in LA and in East Asia) from the perspective of Keynesian/ Minskyian/ Kindlebergian financial economics. I will attempt to show that no matter how diversely these newly financially liberalised Developing Countries tried to deal with the absorption problem created by the subsequent surges of inflow (and they did follow different routes), they invariably ended up in a major crisis. As a result (and despite the insistence of mainstream analysis), these financial crises took place mostly due to factors that were intrinsic (or inherent) to the workings of over-liquid and under-regulated financial markets — and as such, they were both fully deserved and fairly predictable. Furthermore, these crises point not just to major market failures, but to a systemic market failure: evidence suggests that these crises were the spontaneous outcome of actions by utility-maximising agents, freely operating in friendly (light-touched) regulated, over-liquid financial markets. That is, these crises are clear examples that financial markets can be driven by buyers who take little notice of underlying values — investors have incentives to interpret information in a biased fashion in a systematic way. ‘Fat tails’ also occurred because under these circumstances there is a high likelihood of self-made disastrous events. In other words, markets are not always right — indeed, in the case of financial markets they can be seriously wrong as a whole. Also, as the recent collapse of ‘MF Global’ indicates, the capacity of ‘utility-maximising’ agents operating in unregulated and over-liquid financial market to learn from previous mistakes seems rather limited.

The dorsal raphe nucleus exerts opposed control on generalized anxiety and panic-related defensive responses in rats

It has been proposed that the ascending dorsal raphe (DR)-serotonergic (5-HT) pathway facilitates conditioned avoidance responses to potential or distal threat, while the DR-periventricular 5-HT pathway inhibits unconditioned flight reactions to proximal danger. Dysfunction on these pathways would be, respectively, related to generalized anxiety (GAD) and panic disorder (PD). To investigate this hypothesis, we microinjected into the rat DR the benzodiazepine inverse receptor agonist FG 7142, the 5-HT1A receptor agonist 8-OH-DPAT or the GABA(A) receptor agonist muscimol. Animals were evaluated in the elevated T-maze (ETM) and light/dark transition test. These models generate defensive responses that have been related to GAD and PD. Experiments were also conducted in the ETM 14 days after the selective lesion of DR serotonergic neurons by 5,7-dihydroxytriptamine (DHT). In all cases, rats were pre-exposed to one of the open arms of the ETM 1 day before testing. The results showed that FG 7142 facilitated inhibitory avoidance, an anxiogenic effect, while impairing one-way escape, an anxiolytic effect. 8-OH-DPAT, muscimol, and 5,7-DHT-induced lesions acted in the opposite direction, impairing inhibitory avoidance while facilitating one-way escape from the open arm. In the light/dark transition, 8-OH-DPAT and muscimol increased the time spent in the lighted compartment, an anxiolytic effect. The data supports the view that distinct DR-5-HT pathways regulate neural mechanisms underlying GAD and PD. (C) 2002 Elsevier B.V. B.V. All rights reserved.

Piranha attacks in dammed streams used for human recreation in the State of São Paulo, Brazil

Ataques por piranhas vêm se tornando um problema comum em trechos represados de rios e córregos no estado de São Paulo, Sudeste do Brasil. em dois surtos ocorridos em dois municípios vizinhos no noroeste do estado, 74 banhistas foram mordidos. Uma mordida por pessoa foi registrada, em curto período do ano. As mordidas estão relacionadas a cuidado parental e/ou defesa do território de desova, o que reforça estudos anteriores e desmistifica os ataques por este peixe lendário, da maneira como são popularmente percebidos. A colocação de redes de malha fina e a remoção de vegetação aquática cessaram os ataques.

Coati (Nasua nasua) Attacks on Humans: Case Report

Coatis [including Nasua nasua, the ring-tailed coati], are medium-sized mammals widely distributed in the Americas. They are social animals, whose normal diet includes insects, fruits, and small vertebrates, and rarely prey on larger sized animals. There are, to our knowledge, no reports in the medical literature of attacks on humans. This report describes a coati attack on 2 children in their home. The children sustained deep scratches and bites. The animal may have injured the humans in a defensive strike, but motivation for attack was uncertain. Coati attacks may occur in places where there is interaction between these mammals and humans.

Obsessive-compulsive symptoms in patients with panic disorder

Comorbidity studies have shown an important association between panic disorder (PD) and obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD). The aim of the current study was to evaluate the prevalence of obsessive-compulsive symptoms (OCS) and OCD in patients with PD. Forty-eight consecutive PD cases (DSM-IV diagnostic criteria) referred to a Brazilian university hospital clinic were studied. The Yale Brown Obsessive Compulsive scale (Y-BOCS) checklist was used to identify the OCS. Subclinical OCD was considered when subjects met all but one DSM-IV criteria for OCD (symptoms did not cause significant distress and interference, did not last more than 1 hour per day, or were not considered excessive or irrational), and OCS when only the criterion for presence of obsessions or compulsions was met. Twenty-nine (60.4%) of the 48 patients evaluated (19 men and 29 women) had at least one OCS: nine (18.8%) had mild OCS, 11 (22.9%) had subclinical OCD, and nine (18.8%) had comorbid OCD. Therefore, 41.7% of the patients had either clinical or subclinical OCD. OCS occurred more frequently in women and, in 70.4% of the cases, preceded the onset of PD. Our results suggest that it is important to evaluate systematically the co-occurrence of OCS in patients with PD, due to the considerable overlap found in symptoms, which may have therapeutic implications. As panic symptoms are usually the main complaint, OCS are often found only when directly investigated. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Unsuccessful attacks dominate a drone-preying wasp's hunting performance near stingless bee nests

Bee males (drones) of stingless bees tend to congregate near entrances of conspecific nests, where they wait for virgin queens that initiate their nuptial flight. We observed that the Neotropical solitary wasp Trachypus boharti (Hymenoptera, Cabronidae) specifically preys on males of the stingless bee Scaptotrigona postica (Hymenoptera, Apidae); these wasps captured up to 50 males per day near the entrance of a single hive. Over 90% of the wasp attacks were unsuccessful; such erroneous attacks often involved conspecific wasps and worker bees. After the capture of non-male prey, wasps almost immediately released these individuals unharmed and continued hunting. A simple behavioral experiment showed that at short distances wasps were not specifically attracted to S. postica males nor were they repelled by workers of the same species. Likely, short-range prey detection near the bees' nest is achieved mainly by vision whereas close-range prey recognition is based principally on chemical and/or mechanical cues. We argue that the dependence on the wasp's visual perception during attack and the crowded and dynamic hunting conditions caused wasps to make many preying attempts that failed. Two wasp-density-related factors, wasp-prey distance and wasp-wasp encounters, may account for the fact that the highest male capture and unsuccessful wasp bee encounter rates occurred at intermediate wasp numbers.

Nest defense behavior against ant attacks in post-emergent colonies of wasp Mischocyttarus cerberus (Hymenoptera, Vespidae)

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Common vampire bat attacks on humans in a village of the Amazon region of Brazil

Agressões de morcegos a pessoas vêm sendo notificadas em várias comunidades amazônicas nesta última década. Isto constitui um risco potencial para a raiva humana transmitida por morcegos. O objetivo deste estudo foi de analisar fatores associados a estas agressões em uma destas comunidades. Foi realizado um estudo transversal em um povoado de garimpeiros na Região Amazônica brasileira (160 habitantes). Foi realizada a captura de morcegos junto às casas e foram enviadas amostras para o laboratório. Das 129 pessoas entrevistas, 41% foram agredidas por morcegos pelo menos uma vez, com 92% das mordidas localizadas nos dedos dos pés. Por meio de regressão logística, encontrou-se que adultos eram agredidos ao redor de quatro vezes mais do que crianças (OR = 3,75, IC: 1,46-9,62, p = 0,036). Homens foram agredidos com maior freqüência do que mulheres (OR = 2,08, IC: 0,90-4,76, p = 0,067). Nove Desmodus rotundus e três morcegos frugívoros foram capturados e resultaram negativos para a raiva. O estudo sugere que, em áreas de garimpo, adultos do sexo masculino têm maior probabilidade de serem agredidos por morcegos. As ações de controle para a raiva humana a serem desenvolvidas nestes lugares devem dar ênfase especial a adultos homens. Recomendam-se mais investigações sobre o modo como o garimpo na Região Amazônica está colocando em risco as pessoas e o ambiente.