Differential segmentation responses to an alcohol social marketing program

Objective This study seeks establish whether meaningful subgroups exist within a 14-16 year old adolescent population and if these segments respond differently to the Game On: Know Alcohol (GOKA) intervention, a school-based alcohol social marketing program. Methodology This study is part of a larger cluster randomized controlled evaluation of the Game On: Know Alcohol (GOKA) program implemented in 14 schools in 2013/2014. TwoStep cluster analysis was conducted to segment 2114 high school adolescents (14-16 years old) on the basis of 22 demographic, behavioral and psychographic variables. Program effects on knowledge, attitudes, behavioral intentions, social norms, expectancies and refusal self-efficacy of identified segments was subsequently examined. Results Three segments were identified: (1) Abstainers (2) Bingers (3) Moderate Drinkers. Program effects varied significantly across segments. The strongest positive change effects post participation were observed for the Bingers, while mixed effects were evident for Moderate Drinkers and Abstainers. Conclusions These findings provide preliminary empirical evidence supporting application of social marketing segmentation in alcohol education programs. Development of targeted programs that meet the unique needs of each of the three identified segments is indicated to extend the social marketing footprint in alcohol education.

Genetic variants underlying risk of endometriosis: Insights from meta-analysis of eight genome-wide association and replication datasets

BACKGROUND Endometriosis is a heritable common gynaecological condition influenced by multiple genetic and environmental factors. Genome-wide association studies (GWASs) have proved successful in identifying common genetic variants of moderate effects for various complex diseases. To date, eight GWAS and replication studies from multiple populations have been published on endometriosis. In this review, we investigate the consistency and heterogeneity of the results across all the studies and their implications for an improved understanding of the aetiology of the condition. METHODS Meta-analyses were conducted on four GWASs and four replication studies including a total of 11 506 cases and 32 678 controls, and on the subset of studies that investigated associations for revised American Fertility Society (rAFS) Stage III/IV including 2859 cases. The datasets included 9039 cases and 27 343 controls of European (Australia, Belgium, Italy, UK, USA) and 2467 cases and 5335 controls of Japanese ancestry. Fixed and Han and Elkin random-effects models, and heterogeneity statistics (Cochran's Q test), were used to investigate the evidence of the nine reported genome-wide significant loci across datasets and populations. RESULTS Meta-analysis showed that seven out of nine loci had consistent directions of effect across studies and populations, and six out of nine remained genome-wide significant (P < 5 × 10(-8)), including rs12700667 on 7p15.2 (P = 1.6 × 10(-9)), rs7521902 near WNT4 (P = 1.8 × 10(-15)), rs10859871 near VEZT (P = 4.7 × 10(-15)), rs1537377 near CDKN2B-AS1 (P = 1.5 × 10(-8)), rs7739264 near ID4 (P = 6.2 × 10(-10)) and rs13394619 in GREB1 (P = 4.5 × 10(-8)). In addition to the six loci, two showed borderline genome-wide significant associations with Stage III/IV endometriosis, including rs1250248 in FN1 (P = 8 × 10(-8)) and rs4141819 on 2p14 (P = 9.2 × 10(-8)). Two independent inter-genic loci, rs4141819 and rs6734792 on chromosome 2, showed significant evidence of heterogeneity across datasets (P < 0.005). Eight of the nine loci had stronger effect sizes among Stage III/IV cases, implying that they are likely to be implicated in the development of moderate to severe, or ovarian, disease. While three out of nine loci were inter-genic, the remaining were in or near genes with known functions of biological relevance to endometriosis, varying from roles in developmental pathways to cellular growth/carcinogenesis. CONCLUSIONS Our meta-analysis shows remarkable consistency in endometriosis GWAS results across studies, with little evidence of population-based heterogeneity. They also show that the phenotypic classifications used in GWAS to date have been limited. Stronger associations with Stage III/IV disease observed for most loci emphasize the importance for future studies to include detailed sub-phenotype information. Functional studies in relevant tissues are needed to understand the effect of the variants on downstream biological pathways.

Are there generalizable trends in the release of airborne synthetic clay nanoparticles from a jet milling process?

Despite recent efforts to assess the release of nanoparticles to the workplace during different nanotechnology activities, the existence of a generalizable trend in the particle release has yet to be identified. This study aimed to characterize the release of synthetic clay nanoparticles from a laboratory-based jet milling process by quantifying the variations arising from primary particle size and surface treatment of the material used, as well as the feed rate of the machine. A broad range of materials were used in this study, and the emitted particles mass (PM2.5) and number concentrations (PNC) were measured at the release source. Analysis of variance, followed by linear mixed-effects modeling, was applied to quantify the variations in PM2.5 and PNC of the released particles caused by the abovementioned factors. The results confirmed that using materials of different primary size and surface treatment affects the release of the particles from the same process by causing statistically-significant variations in PM2.5 and PNC. The interaction of these two factors should also be taken into account as it resulted in variations in the measured particles release properties. Furthermore, the feed rate of the milling machine was confirmed to be another influencing parameter. Although this research does not identify a specific pattern in the release of synthetic clay nanoparticles from the jet milling process generalizable to other similar settings, it emphasizes that each tested case should be handled individually in terms of exposure considerations.

Predicting white matter integrity from multiple common genetic variants

Several common genetic variants have recently been discovered that appear to influence white matter microstructure, as measured by diffusion tensor imaging (DTI). Each genetic variant explains only a small proportion of the variance in brain microstructure, so we set out to explore their combined effect on the white matter integrity of the corpus callosum. We measured six common candidate single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in the COMT, NTRK1, BDNF, ErbB4, CLU, and HFE genes, and investigated their individual and aggregate effects on white matter structure in 395 healthy adult twins and siblings (age: 20-30 years). All subjects were scanned with 4-tesla 94-direction high angular resolution diffusion imaging. When combined using mixed-effects linear regression, a joint model based on five of the candidate SNPs (COMT, NTRK1, ErbB4, CLU, and HFE) explained ∼ 6% of the variance in the average fractional anisotropy (FA) of the corpus callosum. This predictive model had detectable effects on FA at 82% of the corpus callosum voxels, including the genu, body, and splenium. Predicting the brain's fiber microstructure from genotypes may ultimately help in early risk assessment, and eventually, in personalized treatment for neuropsychiatric disorders in which brain integrity and connectivity are affected.

Burden attributable to child maltreatment in Australia

Child maltreatment is a complex phenomenon, with four main types (childhood sexual abuse, physical abuse, emotional abuse, and neglect) highly interrelated. All types of maltreatment have been linked to adverse health consequences and exposure to multiple forms of maltreatment increases risk. In Australia to date, only burden attributable to childhood sexual abuse has been estimated. This study synthesized the national evidence and quantified the burden attributable to the four main types of child maltreatment. Meta-analyses, based on quality-effects models, generated pooled prevalence estimates for each maltreatment type. Exposure to child maltreatment was examined as a risk factor for depressive disorders, anxiety disorders and intentional self-harm using counterfactual estimation and comparative risk assessment methods. Adjustments were made for co-occurrence of multiple forms of child maltreatment. Overall, an estimated 23.5% of self-harm, 20.9% of anxiety disorders and 15.7% of depressive disorders burden in males; and 33.0% of self-harm, 30.6% of anxiety disorders and 22.8% of depressive disorders burden in females was attributable to child maltreatment. Child maltreatment was estimated to cause 1.4% (95% uncertainty interval 0.4–2.3%) of all disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) in males, and 2.4% (0.7–4.1%) of all DALYs in females in Australia in 2010. Child maltreatment contributes to a substantial proportion of burden from depressive and anxiety disorders and intentional self-harm in Australia. This study demonstrates the importance of including all forms of child maltreatment as risk factors in future burden of disease studies.

Association of IL23R and ERAP1 genes with ankylosing spondylitis in a Portuguese population

Objective: Association between ankylosing spondylitis (AS) and two genes, ERAP1 and IL23R, has recently been reported in North American and British populations. The population attributable risk fraction for ERAP1 in this study was 25%, and for IL23R, 9%. Confirmation of these findings to ERAP1 in other ethnic groups has not yet been demonstrated. We sought to test the association between single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in these genes and susceptibility to AS among a Portuguese population. We also investigated the role of these genes in clinical manifestations of AS, including age of symptom onset, the Bath Ankylosing Spondylitis Disease Activity, Metrology and Functional Indices, and the modified Stoke Ankylosing Spondylitis Spinal Score. Methods: The study was conducted on 358 AS cases and 285 ethnically matched Portuguese healthy controls. AS was defined according to the modified New York Criteria. Genotyping of IL23R and ERAP1 allelic variants was carried out with TaqMan allelic discrimination assays. Association analysis was performed using the Cochrane-Armitage and linear regression tests of genotypes as implemented in PLINK for dichotomous and quantitative variables respectively. A meta-analysis for Portuguese and previously published Spanish IL23R data was performed using the StatsDirect® Statistical tools, by fixed and random effects models. Results: A total of 14 nsSNPs markers (8 for IL23R, 5 for ERAPl, 1 for LN-PEP) were analysed. Three markers (2 for IL23R and 1 for ERAP1) showed significant single-locus disease associations, confirming that the association of these genes with AS in the Portuguese population. The strongest associated SNP in IL23R was rs1004819 (OR=1.4, p=0.0049), and in ERAP1 was rs30187 (OR=1.26, p=0.035). The population attributable risk fractions in the Portuguese population for these SNPs are 11% and 9.7% respectively. No association was seen with any SNP in LN-PEP, which flanks ERAP1 and was associated with AS in the British population. No association was seen with clinical manifestations of AS. Conclusions: These results show that IL23R and ERAP1 genes are also associated with susceptibility to AS in the Portuguese population, and that they contribute a significant proportion of the population risk for this disease.

Fuzzy optimization model for water quality management of a river system - Closure

A fuzzy waste-load allocation model, FWLAM, is developed for water quality management of a river system using fuzzy multiple-objective optimization. An important feature of this model is its capability to incorporate the aspirations and conflicting objectives of the pollution control agency and dischargers. The vagueness associated with specifying the water quality criteria and fraction removal levels is modeled in a fuzzy framework. The goals related to the pollution control agency and dischargers are expressed as fuzzy sets. The membership functions of these fuzzy sets are considered to represent the variation of satisfaction levels of the pollution control agency and dischargers in attaining their respective goals. Two formulations—namely, the MAX-MIN and MAX-BIAS formulations—are proposed for FWLAM. The MAX-MIN formulation maximizes the minimum satisfaction level in the system. The MAX-BIAS formulation maximizes a bias measure, giving a solution that favors the dischargers. Maximization of the bias measure attempts to keep the satisfaction levels of the dischargers away from the minimum satisfaction level and that of the pollution control agency close to the minimum satisfaction level. Most of the conventional water quality management models use waste treatment cost curves that are uncertain and nonlinear. Unlike such models, FWLAM avoids the use of cost curves. Further, the model provides the flexibility for the pollution control agency and dischargers to specify their aspirations independently.

Predicting health programme participation: A gravity‐based, hierarchical modelling approach

Statistical analyses of health program participation seek to address a number of objectives compatible with the evaluation of demand for current resources. In this spirit, a spatial hierarchical model is developed for disentangling patterns in participation at the small area level, as a function of population-based demand and additional variation. For the former, a constrained gravity model is proposed to quantify factors associated with spatial choice and account for competition effects, for programs delivered by multiple clinics. The implications of gravity model misspecification within a mixed effects framework are also explored. The proposed model is applied to participation data from a no-fee mammography program in Brisbane, Australia. Attention is paid to the interpretation of various model outputs and their relevance for public health policy.

Permeation of gases through liquid films

Permeation of gases through single surfactant stabilized aqueous films has previously been studied in view of the potentiality of foam to separate gaseous mixtures. The earlier analysis assumed that the gas phase was well mixed and that the mass-transfer process was completely controlled by the liquid film. Permeabilities evaluated from single film data based on such analysis failed to predict the mass-transfer data obtained on permeation through two films. It is shown that the neglect of gas-phase resistance and the effect of film movement is the reason for the failure of the well-mixed gas models. An exact analysis of diffusion through two films is presented. It successfully predicts the experimental data on two films based on parameters evaluated from single film data.

Metsänomistajakunnan rakenteen ennustaminen

The general change in the population structure and its impacts on the forest ownership structure were investigated in the thesis. The research assumed that the structural change in society has an effect on the outlook of the non-industrial private forest ownership. The changes in the structure of society were mainly restricted to population, education and occupation structures. The migration of the rural population into cities was also taken into consideration. The structural changes both in society and the non-industrial private forest ownership were examined as phenomena and their development directions were investigated since the middle of the 1970s. It could be established that the changes in the structures were mainly of the same kind in society as in forest owner structure. The clearest similarities between the changes in population and forest owner structure could be found in an increased mean age, a decrease in the 18 to 39 age bracket, those without a degree and in the farmers' shares. Furthermore it could be stated that migration into cities had taken place among both the forest owners and the general population. The main part of the research was concentrated on estimating regression models that explain the non-industrial private forest ownership change by the structural change in the population. A panel data was gathered from population statistics and previous forest ownership research information. The panel contained the years 1990 and 1999. With the assistance of the panel data it was possible to estimate regression and fixed effects' models that explained the structural changes in the non-industrial private forest ownership by evolution in the whole population. In the use of the estimated models authorities' forecasts considering the population were exploited. Only a few of the estimated models were statistically significant. This could be explained due to lack of a larger panel data. In addition the structural change of the non-industrial forest ownership was forecasted by trends.

Valuation of reduced eutrophication in the Gulf of Finland : Choice experiment with attention to heterogeneous and discontinuous preferences and respondent uncertainty

Eutrophication of the Baltic Sea is a serious problem. This thesis estimates the benefit to Finns from reduced eutrophication in the Gulf of Finland, the most eutrophied part of the Baltic Sea, by applying the choice experiment method, which belongs to the family of stated preference methods. Because stated preference methods have been subject to criticism, e.g., due to their hypothetical survey context, this thesis contributes to the discussion by studying two anomalies that may lead to biased welfare estimates: respondent uncertainty and preference discontinuity. The former refers to the difficulty of stating one s preferences for an environmental good in a hypothetical context. The latter implies a departure from the continuity assumption of conventional consumer theory, which forms the basis for the method and the analysis. In the three essays of the thesis, discrete choice data are analyzed with the multinomial logit and mixed logit models. On average, Finns are willing to contribute to the water quality improvement. The probability for willingness increases with residential or recreational contact with the gulf, higher than average income, younger than average age, and the absence of dependent children in the household. On average, for Finns the relatively most important characteristic of water quality is water clarity followed by the desire for fewer occurrences of blue-green algae. For future nutrient reduction scenarios, the annual mean household willingness to pay estimates range from 271 to 448 and the aggregate welfare estimates for Finns range from 28 billion to 54 billion euros, depending on the model and the intensity of the reduction. Out of the respondents (N=726), 72.1% state in a follow-up question that they are either Certain or Quite certain about their answer when choosing the preferred alternative in the experiment. Based on the analysis of other follow-up questions and another sample (N=307), 10.4% of the respondents are identified as potentially having discontinuous preferences. In relation to both anomalies, the respondent- and questionnaire-specific variables are found among the underlying causes and a departure from standard analysis may improve the model fit and the efficiency of estimates, depending on the chosen modeling approach. The introduction of uncertainty about the future state of the Gulf increases the acceptance of the valuation scenario which may indicate an increased credibility of a proposed scenario. In conclusion, modeling preference heterogeneity is an essential part of the analysis of discrete choice data. The results regarding uncertainty in stating one s preferences and non-standard choice behavior are promising: accounting for these anomalies in the analysis may improve the precision of the estimates of benefit from reduced eutrophication in the Gulf of Finland.

Effect of Broadcast Baiting on Abundance Patterns of Red Imported Fire Ants (Hymenoptera: Formicidae) and Key Local Ant Genera at Long-Term Monitoring Sites in Brisbane, Australia

In 2001, the red imported fire ant (Solenopsis invicta Buren) was identified in Brisbane, Australia. An eradication program involving broadcast bait treatment with two insect growth regulators and a metabolic inhibitor began in September of that year and is currently ongoing. To gauge the impacts of these treatments on local ant populations, we examined long-term monitoring data and quantified abundance patterns of S. invicta and common local ant genera using a linear mixed-effects model. For S. invicta, presence in pitfalls reduced over time to zero on every site. Significantly higher numbers of S. invicta workers were collected on high-density polygyne sites, which took longer to disinfest compared with monogyne and low-density polygyne sites. For local ants, nine genus groups of the 10 most common genera analyzed either increased in abundance or showed no significant trend. Five of these genus groups were significantly less abundant at the start of monitoring on high-density polygyne sites compared with monogyne and low-density polygyne sites. The genus Pheidole significantly reduced in abundance over time, suggesting that it was affected by treatment efforts. These results demonstrate that the treatment regime used at the time successfully removed S. invicta from these sites in Brisbane, and that most local ant genera were not seriously impacted by the treatment. These results have important implications for current and future prophylactic treatment efforts, and suggest that native ants remain in treated areas to provide some biological resistance to S. invicta.

Estimates of genetic parameters for growth and wood properties in Eucalyptus pellita F. Muell. to support tree breeding in Vietnam

Key message Eucalyptus pellita demonstrated good growth and wood quality traits in this study, with young plantation grown timber being suitable for both solid and pulp wood products. All traits examined were under moderate levels of genetic control with little genotype by environment interaction when grown on two contrasting sites in Vietnam. Context Eucalyptus pellita currently has a significant role in reforestation in the tropics. Research to support expanded of use of this species is needed: particularly, research to better understand the genetic control of key traits will facilitate the development of genetically improved planting stock. Aims This study aimed to provide estimates of the heritability of diameter at breast height over bark, wood basic density, Kraft pulp yield, modulus of elasticity and microfibril angle, and the genetic correlations among these traits, and understand the importance of genotype by environment interactions in Vietnam. Methods Data for diameter and wood properties were collected from two 10-year-old, open-pollinated progeny trials of E. pellita in Vietnam that evaluated 104 families from six native range and three orchard sources. Wood properties were estimated from wood samples using near-infrared (NIR) spectroscopy. Data were analysed using mixed linear models to estimate genetic parameters (heritability, proportion of variance between seed sources and genetic correlations). Results Variation among the nine sources was small compared to additive variance. Narrow-sense heritability and genetic correlation estimates indicated that simultaneous improvements in most traits could be achieved from selection among and within families as the genetic correlations among traits were either favourable or close to zero. Type B genetic correlations approached one for all traits suggesting that genotype by environment interactions were of little importance. These results support a breeding strategy utilizing a single breeding population advanced by selecting the best individuals across all seed sources. Conclusion Both growth and wood properties have been evaluated. Multi-trait selection for growth and wood property traits will lead to more productive populations of E. pellita both with improved productivity and improved timber and pulp properties.

Search for chaos in neutron star systems: Is Cyg X-3 a black hole?

The accretion disk around a compact object is a nonlinear general relativistic system involving magnetohydrodynamics. Naturally, the question arises whether such a system is chaotic (deterministic) or stochastic (random) which might be related to the associated transport properties whose origin is still not confirmed. Earlier, the black hole system GRS 1915+105 was shown to be low-dimensional chaos in certain temporal classes. However, so far such nonlinear phenomena have not been studied fairly well for neutron stars which are unique for their magnetosphere and kHz quasi-periodic oscillation (QPO). On the other hand, it was argued that the QPO is a result of nonlinear magnetohydrodynamic effects in accretion disks. If a neutron star exhibits chaotic signature, then what is the chaotic/correlation dimension? We analyze RXTE/PCA data of neutron stars Sco X-1 and Cyg X-2, along with the black hole Cyg X-1 and the unknown source Cyg X-3, and show that while Sco X-1 and Cyg X-2 are low dimensional chaotic systems, Cyg X-1 and Cyg X-3 are stochastic sources. Based on our analysis, we argue that Cyg X-3 may be a black hole.

Prevalence of foot disease and risk factors in general inpatient populations: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Objective: To systematically review studies reporting the prevalence in general adult inpatient populations of foot disease disorders (foot wounds, foot infections, collective ‘foot disease’) and risk factors (peripheral arterial disease (PAD), peripheral neuropathy (PN), foot deformity). Methods: A systematic review of studies published between 1980 and 2013 was undertaken using electronic databases (MEDLINE, EMBASE and CINAHL). Keywords and synonyms relating to prevalence, inpatients, foot disease disorders and risk factors were used. Studies reporting foot disease or risk factor prevalence data in general inpatient populations were included. Included study's reference lists and citations were searched and experts consulted to identify additional relevant studies. 2 authors, blinded to each other, assessed the methodological quality of included studies. Applicable data were extracted by 1 author and checked by a second author. Prevalence proportions and SEs were calculated for all included studies. Pooled prevalence estimates were calculated using random-effects models where 3 eligible studies were available. Results: Of the 4972 studies initially identified, 78 studies reporting 84 different cohorts (total 60 231 517 participants) were included. Foot disease prevalence included: foot wounds 0.01–13.5% (70 cohorts), foot infections 0.05–6.4% (7 cohorts), collective foot disease 0.2–11.9% (12 cohorts). Risk factor prevalence included: PAD 0.01–36.0% (10 cohorts), PN 0.003–2.8% (6 cohorts), foot deformity was not reported. Pooled prevalence estimates were only able to be calculated for pressure ulcer-related foot wounds 4.6% (95% CI 3.7% to 5.4%)), diabetes-related foot wounds 2.4% (1.5% to 3.4%), diabetes-related foot infections 3.4% (0.2% to 6.5%), diabetes-related foot disease 4.7% (0.3% to 9.2%). Heterogeneity was high in all pooled estimates (I2=94.2–97.8%, p<0.001). Conclusions: This review found high heterogeneity, yet suggests foot disease was present in 1 in every 20 inpatients and a major risk factor in 1 in 3 inpatients. These findings are likely an underestimate and more robust studies are required to provide more precise estimates.