Electoral platforms, implemented policies and abstention

Recent studies of American politics evidence that political polarization of both the electorate and the political elite have moved 'almost in tandem for the past half century' (McCarty et al., 2003, p.2), and that party polarization has steadily increased since the 1970s. On the other hand, the empirical literature on party platforms and implemented policies has consistently found an imperfect but nonnegligible correlation between electoral platforms and governmental policies: while platforms tend to be polarized, policies are moderate or centrist. However, existing theoretical models of political competition are not manifestly compatible with these observations.In this paper, we distinguish between electoral platforms and implemented policies by incorporating a non-trivial policy-setting process. It follows that voters may care not only about the implemented policy but also about the platform they support with their vote. We find that while parties tend to polarize their positions, the risk of alienating their constituency prevents them from radicalizing. The analysis evidences that the distribution of the electorate, and not only the (expected) location of a pivotal voter, matters in determining policies. Our results are consistent with the observation of polarized platforms and moderate policies, and the alienation and indifference components of abstention.

Ethnic polarization, potential conflict and civil wars

This paper analyzes the relationship between ethnic fractionalization, polarization, and conflict. In recent years many authors have found empirical evidence that ethnic fractionalization has a negative effect on growth. One mechanism that can explain this nexus is the effect of ethnic heterogeneity on rent-seeking activities and the increase in potential conflict, which is negative for investment. However the empirical evidence supporting the effect of ethnic fractionalization on the incidence of civil conflicts is very weak. Although ethnic fractionalization may be important for growth, we argue that the channel is not through an increase in potential ethnic conflict. We discuss the appropriateness of indices of polarization to capture conflictive dimensions. We develop a new measure of ethnic heterogeneity that satisfies the basic properties associated with the concept of polarization. The empirical section shows that this index of ethnic polarization is a significant variable in the explanation of the incidence of civil wars. This result is robust to the presence of other indicators of ethnic heterogeneity, other sources of data for the construction of the index, and other data structures.

Conglomeration with bankruptcy costs: Separate or joint financing?

The paper analyzes the determinants of the optimal scope of incorporation in the presenceof bankruptcy costs. Bankruptcy costs alone generate a non-trivial tradeoff between thebenefit of coinsurance and the cost of risk contamination associated to joint financing corporate projects through debt. This tradeoff is characterized for projects with binary returns,depending on the distributional characteristics of returns (mean, variability, skewness, heterogeneity, correlation, and number of projects), the bankruptcy recovery rate, and the taxrate advantage of debt relative to equity. Our testable predictions are broadly consistentwith existing empirical evidence on conglomerate mergers, spin-offs, project finance, andsecuritization.

Complex regional pain syndrome type I affects brain structure in prefrontal and motor cortex.

The complex regional pain syndrome (CRPS) is a rare but debilitating pain disorder that mostly occurs after injuries to the upper limb. A number of studies indicated altered brain function in CRPS, whereas possible influences on brain structure remain poorly investigated. We acquired structural magnetic resonance imaging data from CRPS type I patients and applied voxel-by-voxel statistics to compare white and gray matter brain segments of CRPS patients with matched controls. Patients and controls were statistically compared in two different ways: First, we applied a 2-sample ttest to compare whole brain white and gray matter structure between patients and controls. Second, we aimed to assess structural alterations specifically of the primary somatosensory (S1) and motor cortex (M1) contralateral to the CRPS affected side. To this end, MRI scans of patients with left-sided CRPS (and matched controls) were horizontally flipped before preprocessing and region-of-interest-based group comparison. The unpaired ttest of the "non-flipped" data revealed that CRPS patients presented increased gray matter density in the dorsomedial prefrontal cortex. The same test applied to the "flipped" data showed further increases in gray matter density, not in the S1, but in the M1 contralateral to the CRPS-affected limb which were inversely related to decreased white matter density of the internal capsule within the ipsilateral brain hemisphere. The gray-white matter interaction between motor cortex and internal capsule suggests compensatory mechanisms within the central motor system possibly due to motor dysfunction. Altered gray matter structure in dorsomedial prefrontal cortex may occur in response to emotional processes such as pain-related suffering or elevated analgesic top-down control.

A multicentre, retrospective case-control study assessing the role of trabecular bone score (TBS) in menopausal Caucasian women with low areal bone mineral density (BMDa): Analysing the odds of vertebral fracture.

INTRODUCTION: The trabecular bone score (TBS) is a new parameter that is determined from grey level analysis of DXA images. It relies on the mean thickness and volume fraction of trabecular bone microarchitecture. This was a preliminary case-control study to evaluate the potential diagnostic value of TBS, both alone and combined with bone mineral density (BMDa), in the assessment of vertebral fracture. METHODS: Out of a subject pool of 441 Caucasian, postmenopausal women between the ages of 50 and 80 years, we identified 42 women with osteoporosis-related vertebral fractures, and compared them with 126 age-matched women without any fractures (1 case: 3 controls). Primary outcomes were BMDa and TBS. Inter-group comparisons were undertaken using Student's t-tests and Wilcoxon signed ranks tests for parametric and non-parametric data, respectively. Odds ratios for vertebral fracture were calculated for each incremental one standard deviation decrease in BMDa and TBS, and areas under the receiver operating curve (AUC) calculated and sensitivity analysis were conducted to compare BMDa alone, TBS alone, and the combination of BMDa and TBS. Subgroup analyses were performed specifically for women with osteopenia, and for women with T-score-defined osteoporosis. RESULTS: Across all subjects (n=42, 126) weight and body mass index were greater and BMDa and TBS both less in women with fractures. The odds of vertebral fracture were 3.20 (95% CI, 2.01-5.08) for each incremental decrease in TBS, 1.95 (1.34-2.84) for BMDa, and 3.62 (2.32-5.65) for BMDa + TBS combined. The AUC was greater for TBS than for BMDa (0.746 vs. 0.662, p=0.011). At iso-specificity (61.9%) or iso-sensitivity (61.9%) for both BMDa and TBS, TBS + BMDa sensitivity or specificity was 19.1% or 16.7% greater than for either BMDa or TBS alone. Among subjects with osteoporosis (n=11, 40) both BMDa (p=0.0008) and TBS (p=0.0001) were lower in subjects with fractures, and both OR and AUC (p=0.013) for BMDa + TBS were greater than for BMDa alone (OR=4.04 [2.35-6.92] vs. 2.43 [1.49-3.95]; AUC=0.835 [0.755-0.897] vs. 0.718 [0.627-0.797], p=0.013). Among subjects with osteopenia, TBS was lower in women with fractures (p=0.0296), but BMDa was not (p=0.75). Similarly, the OR for TBS was statistically greater than 1.00 (2.82, 1.27-6.26), but not for BMDa (1.12, 0.56-2.22), as was the AUC (p=0.035), but there was no statistical difference in specificity (p=0.357) or sensitivity (p=0.678). CONCLUSIONS: The trabecular bone score warrants further study as to whether it has any clinical application in osteoporosis detection and the evaluation of fracture risk.

Assessing the epidemiology and pattern of care of colorectal cancer in Valais, Switzerland

Background: The Valais's cancer registry (RVsT) of the Observatoire valaisan de le santé (OVS) and the department of oncology of Valais's Hospital conducted a study on the epidemiology and pattern of care of colorectal cancer in Valais. Colorectal cancer is the third cause of death by cancer in Switzerland with about 1600 deaths per year. It is the third most frequent cancer for males and the second most frequent for females in Valais. The number of new colorectal cancer cases (average per year) increased between 1989 and 2009 for males as well as for females in Valais. The number of colorectal cancer death cases (average per year) slightly increased between 1989 and 2009 for males as well as for females in Valais. Age-standardized rates of incidence were stable for males and females in Valais and in Switzerland between 1989 and 2009, while age-standardized rates of mortality decreased for males and females in Valais and Switzerland. Results: 774 cases were recorded (59% males). Median age at diagnosis was 70 years old. Most of cancers were invasive (79%) and the main localization was the colon (71%). The most frequent mode of detection was a consultation for non emergency symptoms (75%), but almost 10% of patients consulted in emergency. 82% of patients were treated within 30 days from diagnosis. 90% of the patients were treated by surgery alone or with combined treatment. The first treatment was surgery, including endoscopic resection in 86% of the cases. The treatment was different according to the localization and the stage of the cancer. Survival rate was 95% at 30 days and 79% at one year. The survival was dependent on the stage and the age at diagnosis. Cox model shows an association between mortality and age (better survival for young people) and between mortality and stage (better survival for the lower stages). Methods: RVsT collects information on all cancer cases since 1989 for people registered in the communes of Valais. RVsT has an authorization to collect non anonymized data. All new incident cancers are coded according to the International Classification of Diseases for Oncology (ICD-O-3) and the stages are coded according to the TNM classification. We studied all cases of in situ and invasive colorectal cancers diagnosed between 2006 and 2009 and registered routinely at the RVsT. We checked for data completeness and if necessary sent questionnaires to avoid missing data. A distance of 15 cm has been chosen to delimitate the colon (sigmoid) and the rectal cancers. We made an active follow-up for vital status to have a valid survival analysis. We analyzed the characteristics of the tumors according to age, sex, localization and stage with stata 9 software. Kaplan-Meier curves were generated and Cox model were fitted to analyze survival. Conclusion: The characteristics of patients and tumors and the one year survival were similar to those observed in Switzerland and some European countries. Patterns of care were close to those recommended in guidelines. Routine data recorded in a cancer registry can be used, not only to provide general statistics, but also to help clinicians assess local practices.

Frequency and chronology of extraintestinal manifestations in the Swiss Inflammatory Bowel Disease Cohort

Background: Data on the frequency of extraintestinal manifestations (EIM) in inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) is scarce, especially the one evaluating the time of occurrence of the EIM relative to IBD diagnosis. Aim: To assess the type and frequency of EIM in IBD patients and to evaluate when EIMs occur relative to IBD diagnosis. Methods: Analysis of data from the Swiss Inflammatory Bowel Disease Cohort (SIBDCS) which collects data on a large sample of IBD patients from hospitals and private practices across Switzerland starting in 2005. While parametric data are shown as mean ± SD, non-parametric data are presented as median and interquartile range (IQR). Results: A total of 1143 patients were analyzed (572 (50%) female, mean age 42.1 ± 14.4 years): 629 (55%) with Crohn's disease (CD), 501 (44%) with ulcerative colitis (UC), and 13 (1%) with indeterminate colitis (IC). Of 1143 patients, 374 (32.7%) presented with EIM (65% with CD, 33% with UC, 2% with IC). Of those patients suffering from EIMs, 37.4% presented with one, 41.7% with two, 12.4% with three, 5.3% with four, and 3.2% with five EIM during their lifetime. The IBD patients initially presented with the following EIMs: peripheral arthritis (PA) 63.4%, ankylosing spondylitis (AS) 8.1%, primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC) 6.0%, uveitis 5.7%, oral aphthosis 5.7%, erythema nodosum (EN) 5.0%, pyoderma gangrenosum 1.8%, psoriasis 0.7%. While 92.9% of EIM occurred once IBD diagnosis was established (median 72 months, IQR 9-147 months, p < 0.001), 7.1% of EIMs preceded IBD diagnosis (median time 28 months before IBD diagnosis, IQR 7-60 months). Over a course of a lifetime, IBD patients presented with the following EIM (total exceeds 100 due to potential presence of multiple EIM): peripheral arthritis 69.3%, oral aphthosis 23%, ankylosing spondylitis 19.4%, uveitis 15.5%, erythema nodosum 14.5%, PSC 7.8%, pyoderma gangrenosum 6%, psoriasis 2.8%. Conclusion: EIMs frequently occur in a lifetime of IBD patients. The vast majority of patients present with EIMs once IBD diagnosis has been established. IBD patients most often present with peripheral arthritis, ankylosing spondylitis and PSC as their first EIM. However, peripheral arthritis, oral aphthosis, and ankylosing spondylitis are the most common EIMs in a lifetime of IBD patients.

Laatupoikkeamienkäsittelyn tehostaminen Olkiluoto 3 -projektissa

Diplomityössä tutustaan Olkiluoto 3-laitoksen suunnittelu- ja rakennusvaiheen aikaisiin laatupoikkeamiin ja niiden käsittelyyn. Työn tavoitteena on paikantaa poikkeamakäsittelyn pahimmat ongelmakohdat, ja kehittää menetelmiä ongelmien ratkaisemiseksi. Diplomityön tutkimusmenetelmänä käytettiin toimintatutkimusta. Tutkimus toteutettiin kevään 2007 aikana havainnoimalla Olkiluoto 3-projektin laadunhallinnan toimintaa ja analysoimalla projektissa syntyneitä poikkeamia. Työn toteuttamisessa tutustuttiin kansallisin ja kansainvälisiin laadunhallinnan standardeihin sekä erityisesti ydinvoima-alaa koskeviin laadunhallinnan ohjeistuksiin. Diplomityön tuloksena kehitettiin menetelmä OL 3-projektin toiminnallisten poikkeamien luokittelemiseksi. Jatkossa luokittelumenetelmää voidaan hyödyntää aiempaa tarkemman poikkeamatiedon analysoinnissa, sisäisessä päätöksenteossa sekä OL 3-projektin tiedotuksessa.

Quelques abus de la statistique dans la recherche médicale [Various abuses of statistics in medical research].

Statistics has become an indispensable tool in biomedical research. Thanks, in particular, to computer science, the researcher has easy access to elementary "classical" procedures. These are often of a "confirmatory" nature: their aim is to test hypotheses (for example the efficacy of a treatment) prior to experimentation. However, doctors often use them in situations more complex than foreseen, to discover interesting data structures and formulate hypotheses. This inverse process may lead to misuse which increases the number of "statistically proven" results in medical publications. The help of a professional statistician thus becomes necessary. Moreover, good, simple "exploratory" techniques are now available. In addition, medical data contain quite a high percentage of outliers (data that deviate from the majority). With classical methods it is often very difficult (even for a statistician!) to detect them and the reliability of results becomes questionable. New, reliable ("robust") procedures have been the subject of research for the past two decades. Their practical introduction is one of the activities of the Statistics and Data Processing Department of the University of Social and Preventive Medicine, Lausanne.

Integral cohomology of finite postnikov towers

Depuis le séminaire H. Cartan de 1954-55, il est bien connu que l'on peut trouver des éléments de torsion arbitrairement grande dans l'homologie entière des espaces d'Eilenberg-MacLane K(G,n) où G est un groupe abélien non trivial et n>1. L'objectif majeur de ce travail est d'étendre ce résultat à des H-espaces possédant plus d'un groupe d'homotopie non trivial. Dans le but de contrôler précisément le résultat de H. Cartan, on commence par étudier la dualité entre l'homologie et la cohomologie des espaces d'Eilenberg-MacLane 2-locaux de type fini. On parvient ainsi à raffiner quelques résultats qui découlent des calculs de H. Cartan. Le résultat principal de ce travail peut être formulé comme suit. Soit X un H-espace ne possédant que deux groupes d'homotopie non triviaux, tous deux finis et de 2-torsion. Alors X n'admet pas d'exposant pour son groupe gradué d'homologie entière réduite. On construit une large classe d'espaces pour laquelle ce résultat n'est qu'une conséquence d'une caractéristique topologique, à savoir l'existence d'un rétract faible X K(G,n) pour un certain groupe abélien G et n>1. On généralise également notre résultat principal à des espaces plus compliqués en utilisant la suite spectrale d'Eilenberg-Moore ainsi que des méthodes analytiques faisant apparaître les nombres de Betti et leur comportement asymptotique. Finalement, on conjecture que les espaces qui ne possédent qu'un nombre fini de groupes d'homotopie non triviaux n'admettent pas d'exposant homologique. Ce travail contient par ailleurs la présentation de la « machine d'Eilenberg-MacLane », un programme C++ conçu pour calculer explicitement les groupes d'homologie entière des espaces d'Eilenberg-MacLane. <br/><br/>By the work of H. Cartan, it is well known that one can find elements of arbitrarilly high torsion in the integral (co)homology groups of an Eilenberg-MacLane space K(G,n), where G is a non-trivial abelian group and n>1. The main goal of this work is to extend this result to H-spaces having more than one non-trivial homotopy groups. In order to have an accurate hold on H. Cartan's result, we start by studying the duality between homology and cohomology of 2-local Eilenberg-MacLane spaces of finite type. This leads us to some improvements of H. Cartan's methods in this particular case. Our main result can be stated as follows. Let X be an H-space with two non-vanishing finite 2-torsion homotopy groups. Then X does not admit any exponent for its reduced integral graded (co)homology group. We construct a wide class of examples for which this result is a simple consequence of a topological feature, namely the existence of a weak retract X K(G,n) for some abelian group G and n>1. We also generalize our main result to more complicated stable two stage Postnikov systems, using the Eilenberg-Moore spectral sequence and analytic methods involving Betti numbers and their asymptotic behaviour. Finally, we investigate some guesses on the non-existence of homology exponents for finite Postnikov towers. We conjecture that Postnikov pieces do not admit any (co)homology exponent. This work also includes the presentation of the "Eilenberg-MacLane machine", a C++ program designed to compute explicitely all integral homology groups of Eilenberg-MacLane spaces. <br/><br/>Il est toujours difficile pour un mathématicien de parler de son travail. La difficulté réside dans le fait que les objets qu'il étudie sont abstraits. On rencontre assez rarement un espace vectoriel, une catégorie abélienne ou une transformée de Laplace au coin de la rue ! Cependant, même si les objets mathématiques sont difficiles à cerner pour un non-mathématicien, les méthodes pour les étudier sont essentiellement les mêmes que celles utilisées dans les autres disciplines scientifiques. On décortique les objets complexes en composantes plus simples à étudier. On dresse la liste des propriétés des objets mathématiques, puis on les classe en formant des familles d'objets partageant un caractère commun. On cherche des façons différentes, mais équivalentes, de formuler un problème. Etc. Mon travail concerne le domaine mathématique de la topologie algébrique. Le but ultime de cette discipline est de parvenir à classifier tous les espaces topologiques en faisant usage de l'algèbre. Cette activité est comparable à celle d'un ornithologue (topologue) qui étudierait les oiseaux (les espaces topologiques) par exemple à l'aide de jumelles (l'algèbre). S'il voit un oiseau de petite taille, arboricole, chanteur et bâtisseur de nids, pourvu de pattes à quatre doigts, dont trois en avant et un, muni d'une forte griffe, en arrière, alors il en déduira à coup sûr que c'est un passereau. Il lui restera encore à déterminer si c'est un moineau, un merle ou un rossignol. Considérons ci-dessous quelques exemples d'espaces topologiques: a) un cube creux, b) une sphère et c) un tore creux (c.-à-d. une chambre à air). a) b) c) Si toute personne normalement constituée perçoit ici trois figures différentes, le topologue, lui, n'en voit que deux ! De son point de vue, le cube et la sphère ne sont pas différents puisque ils sont homéomorphes: on peut transformer l'un en l'autre de façon continue (il suffirait de souffler dans le cube pour obtenir la sphère). Par contre, la sphère et le tore ne sont pas homéomorphes: triturez la sphère de toutes les façons (sans la déchirer), jamais vous n'obtiendrez le tore. Il existe un infinité d'espaces topologiques et, contrairement à ce que l'on serait naïvement tenté de croire, déterminer si deux d'entre eux sont homéomorphes est très difficile en général. Pour essayer de résoudre ce problème, les topologues ont eu l'idée de faire intervenir l'algèbre dans leurs raisonnements. Ce fut la naissance de la théorie de l'homotopie. Il s'agit, suivant une recette bien particulière, d'associer à tout espace topologique une infinité de ce que les algébristes appellent des groupes. Les groupes ainsi obtenus sont appelés groupes d'homotopie de l'espace topologique. Les mathématiciens ont commencé par montrer que deux espaces topologiques qui sont homéomorphes (par exemple le cube et la sphère) ont les même groupes d'homotopie. On parle alors d'invariants (les groupes d'homotopie sont bien invariants relativement à des espaces topologiques qui sont homéomorphes). Par conséquent, deux espaces topologiques qui n'ont pas les mêmes groupes d'homotopie ne peuvent en aucun cas être homéomorphes. C'est là un excellent moyen de classer les espaces topologiques (pensez à l'ornithologue qui observe les pattes des oiseaux pour déterminer s'il a affaire à un passereau ou non). Mon travail porte sur les espaces topologiques qui n'ont qu'un nombre fini de groupes d'homotopie non nuls. De tels espaces sont appelés des tours de Postnikov finies. On y étudie leurs groupes de cohomologie entière, une autre famille d'invariants, à l'instar des groupes d'homotopie. On mesure d'une certaine manière la taille d'un groupe de cohomologie à l'aide de la notion d'exposant; ainsi, un groupe de cohomologie possédant un exposant est relativement petit. L'un des résultats principaux de ce travail porte sur une étude de la taille des groupes de cohomologie des tours de Postnikov finies. Il s'agit du théorème suivant: un H-espace topologique 1-connexe 2-local et de type fini qui ne possède qu'un ou deux groupes d'homotopie non nuls n'a pas d'exposant pour son groupe gradué de cohomologie entière réduite. S'il fallait interpréter qualitativement ce résultat, on pourrait dire que plus un espace est petit du point de vue de la cohomologie (c.-à-d. s'il possède un exposant cohomologique), plus il est intéressant du point de vue de l'homotopie (c.-à-d. il aura plus de deux groupes d'homotopie non nuls). Il ressort de mon travail que de tels espaces sont très intéressants dans le sens où ils peuvent avoir une infinité de groupes d'homotopie non nuls. Jean-Pierre Serre, médaillé Fields en 1954, a montré que toutes les sphères de dimension >1 ont une infinité de groupes d'homotopie non nuls. Des espaces avec un exposant cohomologique aux sphères, il n'y a qu'un pas à franchir...

Python -ohjelmointiopas, versio 1

Python -ohjelmointiopas sisältää perustietoa ohjelmoinnista yleisesti sekä esittelee yksinkertaisia perusrakenteita, joiden pohjalta myös ohjelmoinnista mitään tietämätön ihminen voi luontevasti siirtyä ohjelmoinnin pariin. Opas on suunniteltu siten, että sen käyttäjän ei tarvitse osata etukäteen ohjelmoida, opas aloittaa käyttöympäristön asennuksesta, siihen tutustumisesta ja jatkaa siitä ohjelmointikeskeisimpiin aiheisiin.

An efficient solver for weighted Max-SAT

We present a new branch and bound algorithm for weighted Max-SAT, called Lazy which incorporates original data structures and inference rules, as well as a lower bound of better quality. We provide experimental evidence that our solver is very competitive and outperforms some of the best performing Max-SAT and weighted Max-SAT solvers on a wide range of instances.

Päätöspuun käyttö tutkamaalien initialisoinnissa

Suomen ilmatilaa valvotaan reaaliaikaisesti, pääasiassa ilmavalvontatutkilla. Ilmatilassa on lentokoneiden lisäksi paljon muitakin kohteita, jotka tutka havaitsee. Tutka lähettää nämä tiedot edelleen ilmavalvontajärjestelmään. Ilmavalvontajärjestelmä käsittelee tiedot, sekä lähettää ne edelleen esitysjärjestelmään. Esitysjärjestelmässä tiedot esitetään synteettisinä merkkeinä, seurantoina joista käytetään nimitystä träkki. Näiden tietojen puitteissa sekä oman ammattitaitonsa perusteella ihmiset tekevät päätöksiä. Tämän työn tarkoituksena on tutkia tutkan havaintoja träkkien initialisointipisteessä siten, että voitaisiin määritellä tyypillinen rakenne sille mikä on oikea ja mikä väärä tai huono träkki. Tämän lisäksi tulisi ennustaa, mitkä Irakeista eivät aiheudu ilma- aluksista. Saadut tulokset voivat helpottaa työtä havaintojen tulkinnassa - jokainen lintuparvi ei ole ehdokas seurannaksi. Havaintojen luokittelu voidaan tehdä joko neurolaskennalla tai päätöspuulla. Neurolaskenta tehdään neuroverkoilla, jotka koostuvat neuroneista. Päätöspuu- luokittelijat ovat oppivia tietorakenteita kuten neuroverkotkin. Yleisin päätöpuu on binääripuu. Tämän työn tavoitteena on opettaa päätöspuuluokittelija havaintojen avulla siten, että se pystyy luokittelemaan väärät havainnot oikeista. Neurolaskennan mahdollisuuksia tässä työssä ei käsitellä kuin teoreettisesti. Työn tuloksena voi todeta, että päätöspuuluokittelijat ovat erittäin kykeneviä erottamaan oikeat havainnot vääristä. Vaikka tulokset olivat rohkaiseva, lisää tutkimusta tarvitaan määrittelemään luotettavammin tekijät, jotka parhaiten suorittavat luokittelun.

Systematic evaluation of clinical predictors of aggressive ulcerative colitis

Background: Studies evaluating risk factors associated with an "aggressive" disease course in ulcerative colitis (UC) are scarce. A recent definition of "aggressive" UC incorporated the following characteristics: 1) high relapse rate, 2) need for surgery, 3) development of colorectal cancer, and 4) presence of extraintestinal manifestations (EIM). The following factors for an aggressive / disabling disease course in UC have been identified so far: age < 40 years at S140 Poster presentations UC diagnosis, pancolitis, concomitant primary sclerosing cholangitis, and deep ulcerations of the colonic mucosa. We aimed to evaluate risk factors for an "aggressive" disease course in UC patients. Methods: Data from the Swiss IBD cohort study were analyzed. Patients were recruited from university centers (80%), regional hospitals (19%), and private practices (1%). We applied the following definition for "aggressive" UC: 1) patients ever treated with TNFantagonists or calcineurin inhibitors (tacrolimus / cyclosporine), and 2) need for (procto)-colectomy. Non-normal data are presented as median and interquartile range [IQR].

Rapid optimization of drug combinations for the optimal angiostatic treatment of cancer.

Drug combinations can improve angiostatic cancer treatment efficacy and enable the reduction of side effects and drug resistance. Combining drugs is non-trivial due to the high number of possibilities. We applied a feedback system control (FSC) technique with a population-based stochastic search algorithm to navigate through the large parametric space of nine angiostatic drugs at four concentrations to identify optimal low-dose drug combinations. This implied an iterative approach of in vitro testing of endothelial cell viability and algorithm-based analysis. The optimal synergistic drug combination, containing erlotinib, BEZ-235 and RAPTA-C, was reached in a small number of iterations. Final drug combinations showed enhanced endothelial cell specificity and synergistically inhibited proliferation (p < 0.001), but not migration of endothelial cells, and forced enhanced numbers of endothelial cells to undergo apoptosis (p < 0.01). Successful translation of this drug combination was achieved in two preclinical in vivo tumor models. Tumor growth was inhibited synergistically and significantly (p < 0.05 and p < 0.01, respectively) using reduced drug doses as compared to optimal single-drug concentrations. At the applied conditions, single-drug monotherapies had no or negligible activity in these models. We suggest that FSC can be used for rapid identification of effective, reduced dose, multi-drug combinations for the treatment of cancer and other diseases.