968 resultados para mortality probability prediction


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Aims To test the effects of early exercise training (ET) on left ventricular (LV) and autonomic functions, haemodynamics, tissues blood flows (BFs), maximal oxygen consumption (VO(2) max), and mortality after myocardial infarction (MI) in rats. Methods and results Male Wistar rats were divided into: control (C), sedentary-infarcted (SI), and trained-infarcted (TI). One week after MI, TI group underwent an ET protocol (90 days, 50-70% VO2 max). Left ventricular function was evaluated noninvasively and invasively. Baroreflex sensitivity, heart rate variability, and pulse interval were measured. Cardiac output (CO) and regional BFs were determined using coloured microspheres. Infarcted area was reduced in TI (19 +/- 6%) compared with SI (34 +/- 5%) after ET. Exercise training improved the LV and autonomic functions, the CO and regional BF changes induced by MI, as well as increased SERCA2 expression and mRNA vascular endothelial growth factor levels. These changes brought about by ET resulted in mortality rate reduction in the TI (13%) group compared with the SI (54%) group. Conclusion Early aerobic ET reduced cardiac and peripheral dysfunctions and preserved cardiovascular autonomic control after MI in trained rats. Consequently, these ET-induced changes resulted in improved functional capacity and survival after MI.

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This paper deals with the problem of state prediction for descriptor systems subject to bounded uncertainties. The problem is stated in terms of the optimization of an appropriate quadratic functional. This functional is well suited to derive not only the robust predictor for descriptor systems but also that for usual state-space systems. Numerical examples are included in order to demonstrate the performance of this new filter. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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The results of a combined experimental program and numerical modeling program to evaluate the behavior of ungrouted hollow concrete blocks prisms under uniaxial compression are addressed. In the numerical program, three distinct approaches have been considered using a continuum model with a smeared approach, namely plane-stress, plane-strain and three-dimensional conditions. The response of the numerical simulations is compared with experimental data of masonry prisms using concrete blocks specifically designed for this purpose. The elastic and inelastic parameters were acquired from laboratory tests on concrete and mortar samples that constitute the blocks and the bed joint of the prisms. The results from the numerical simulations are discussed with respect to the ability to reproduce the global response of the experimental tests, and with respect to the failure behavior obtained. Good agreement between experimental and numerical results was found for the peak load and for the failure mode using the three-dimensional model, on four different sets of block/mortar types. Less good agreement was found for plain stress and plain strain models.

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An updated flow pattern map was developed for CO2 on the basis of the previous Cheng-Ribatski-Wojtan-Thome CO2 flow pattern map [1,2] to extend the flow pattern map to a wider range of conditions. A new annular flow to dryout transition (A-D) and a new dryout to mist flow transition (D-M) were proposed here. In addition, a bubbly flow region which generally occurs at high mass velocities and low vapor qualities was added to the updated flow pattern map. The updated flow pattern map is applicable to a much wider range of conditions: tube diameters from 0.6 to 10 mm, mass velocities from 50 to 1500 kg/m(2) s, heat fluxes from 1.8 to 46 kW/m(2) and saturation temperatures from -28 to +25 degrees C (reduced pressures from 0.21 to 0.87). The updated flow pattern map was compared to independent experimental data of flow patterns for CO2 in the literature and it predicts the flow patterns well. Then, a database of CO2 two-phase flow pressure drop results from the literature was set up and the database was compared to the leading empirical pressure drop models: the correlations by Chisholm [3], Friedel [4], Gronnerud [5] and Muller-Steinhagen and Heck [6], a modified Chisholm correlation by Yoon et al. [7] and the flow pattern based model of Moreno Quiben and Thome [8-10]. None of these models was able to predict the CO2 pressure drop data well. Therefore, a new flow pattern based phenomenological model of two-phase flow frictional pressure drop for CO2 was developed by modifying the model of Moreno Quiben and Thome using the updated flow pattern map in this study and it predicts the CO2 pressure drop database quite well overall. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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Corresponding to the updated flow pattern map presented in Part I of this study, an updated general flow pattern based flow boiling heat transfer model was developed for CO2 using the Cheng-Ribatski-Wojtan-Thome [L. Cheng, G. Ribatski, L. Wojtan, J.R. Thome, New flow boiling heat transfer model and flow pattern map for carbon dioxide evaporating inside horizontal tubes, Int. J. Heat Mass Transfer 49 (2006) 4082-4094; L. Cheng, G. Ribatski, L. Wojtan, J.R. Thome, Erratum to: ""New flow boiling heat transfer model and flow pattern map for carbon dioxide evaporating inside tubes"" [Heat Mass Transfer 49 (21-22) (2006) 4082-4094], Int. J. Heat Mass Transfer 50 (2007) 391] flow boiling heat transfer model as the starting basis. The flow boiling heat transfer correlation in the dryout region was updated. In addition, a new mist flow heat transfer correlation for CO2 was developed based on the CO2 data and a heat transfer method for bubbly flow was proposed for completeness sake. The updated general flow boiling heat transfer model for CO2 covers all flow regimes and is applicable to a wider range of conditions for horizontal tubes: tube diameters from 0.6 to 10 mm, mass velocities from 50 to 1500 kg/m(2) s, heat fluxes from 1.8 to 46 kW/m(2) and saturation temperatures from -28 to 25 degrees C (reduced pressures from 0.21 to 0.87). The updated general flow boiling heat transfer model was compared to a new experimental database which contains 1124 data points (790 more than that in the previous model [Cheng et al., 2006, 2007]) in this study. Good agreement between the predicted and experimental data was found in general with 71.4% of the entire database and 83.2% of the database without the dryout and mist flow data predicted within +/-30%. However, the predictions for the dryout and mist flow regions were less satisfactory due to the limited number of data points, the higher inaccuracy in such data, scatter in some data sets ranging up to 40%, significant discrepancies from one experimental study to another and the difficulties associated with predicting the inception and completion of dryout around the perimeter of the horizontal tubes. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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In this work, the applicability of a new algorithm for the estimation of mechanical properties from instrumented indentation data was studied for thin films. The applicability was analyzed with the aid of both three-dimensional finite element simulations and experimental indentation tests. The numerical approach allowed studying the effect of the substrate on the estimation of mechanical properties of the film, which was conducted based on the ratio h(max)/l between maximum indentation depth and film thickness. For the experimental analysis, indentation tests were conducted on AISI H13 tool steel specimens, plasma nitrated and coated with TiN thin films. Results have indicated that, for the conditions analyzed in this work, the elastic deformation of the substrate limited the extraction of mechanical properties of the film/substrate system. This limitation occurred even at low h(max)/l ratios and especially for the estimation of the values of yield strength and strain hardening exponent. At indentation depths lower than 4% of the film thickness, the proposed algorithm estimated the mechanical properties of the film with accuracy. Particularly for hardness, precise values were estimated at h(max)/l lower than 0.1, i.e. 10% of film thickness. (C) 2010 Published by Elsevier B.V.

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The objective of the present work is to propose a numerical and statistical approach, using computational fluid dynamics, for the study of the atmospheric pollutant dispersion. Modifications in the standard k-epsilon turbulence model and additional equations for the calculation of the variance of concentration are introduced to enhance the prediction of the flow field and scalar quantities. The flow field, the mean concentration and the variance of a flow over a two-dimensional triangular hill, with a finite-size point pollutant source, are calculated by a finite volume code and compared with published experimental results. A modified low Reynolds k-epsilon turbulence model was employed in this work, using the constant of the k-epsilon model C(mu)=0.03 to take into account the inactive atmospheric turbulence. The numerical results for the velocity profiles and the position of the reattachment point are in good agreement with the experimental results. The results for the mean and the variance of the concentration are also in good agreement with experimental results from the literature. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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A multiphase deterministic mathematical model was implemented to predict the formation of the grain macrostructure during unidirectional solidification. The model consists of macroscopic equations of energy, mass, and species conservation coupled with dendritic growth models. A grain nucleation model based on a Gaussian distribution of nucleation undercoolings was also adopted. At some solidification conditions, the cooling curves calculated with the model showed oscillations (""wiggles""), which prevented the correct prediction of the average grain size along the structure. Numerous simulations were carried out at nucleation conditions where the oscillations are absent, enabling an assessment of the effect of the heat transfer coefficient on the average grain size and columnar-to-equiaxed transition.

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The purpose of this article is to present a quantitative analysis of the human failure contribution in the collision and/or grounding of oil tankers, considering the recommendation of the ""Guidelines for Formal Safety Assessment"" of the International Maritime Organization. Initially, the employed methodology is presented, emphasizing the use of the technique for human error prediction to reach the desired objective. Later, this methodology is applied to a ship operating on the Brazilian coast and, thereafter, the procedure to isolate the human actions with the greatest potential to reduce the risk of an accident is described. Finally, the management and organizational factors presented in the ""International Safety Management Code"" are associated with these selected actions. Therefore, an operator will be able to decide where to work in order to obtain an effective reduction in the probability of accidents. Even though this study does not present a new methodology, it can be considered as a reference in the human reliability analysis for the maritime industry, which, in spite of having some guides for risk analysis, has few studies related to human reliability effectively applied to the sector.

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Steady-state and time-resolved fluorescence measurements are reported for several crude oils and their saturates, aromatics, resins, and asphaltenes (SARA) fractions (saturates, aromatics and resins), isolated from maltene after pentane precipitation of the asphaltenes. There is a clear relationship between the American Petroleum Institute (API) grade of the crude oils and their fluorescence emission intensity and maxima. Dilution of the crude oil samples with cyclohexane results in a significant increase of emission intensity and a blue shift, which is a clear indication of the presence of energy-transfer processes between the emissive chromophores present in the crude oil. Both the fluorescence spectra and the mean fluorescence lifetimes of the three SARA fractions and their mixtures indicate that the aromatics and resins are the major contributors to the emission of crude oils. Total synchronous fluorescence scan (TSFS) spectral maps are preferable to steady-state fluorescence spectra for discriminating between the fractions, making TSFS maps a particularly interesting choice for the development of fluorescence-based methods for the characterization and classification of crude oils. More detailed studies, using a much wider range of excitation and emission wavelengths, are necessary to determine the utility of time-resolved fluorescence (TRF) data for this purpose. Preliminary models constructed using TSFS spectra from 21 crude oil samples show a very good correlation (R(2) > 0.88) between the calculated and measured values of API and the SARA fraction concentrations. The use of models based on a fast fluorescence measurement may thus be an alternative to tedious and time-consuming chemical analysis in refineries.

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An important topic in genomic sequence analysis is the identification of protein coding regions. In this context, several coding DNA model-independent methods based on the occurrence of specific patterns of nucleotides at coding regions have been proposed. Nonetheless, these methods have not been completely suitable due to their dependence on an empirically predefined window length required for a local analysis of a DNA region. We introduce a method based on a modified Gabor-wavelet transform (MGWT) for the identification of protein coding regions. This novel transform is tuned to analyze periodic signal components and presents the advantage of being independent of the window length. We compared the performance of the MGWT with other methods by using eukaryote data sets. The results show that MGWT outperforms all assessed model-independent methods with respect to identification accuracy. These results indicate that the source of at least part of the identification errors produced by the previous methods is the fixed working scale. The new method not only avoids this source of errors but also makes a tool available for detailed exploration of the nucleotide occurrence.

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The preslaughter handling and transport of broilers are stressful operations that might affect welfare and meat quality and could increase numbers of deaths before slaughter. However, the influence of thermal factors during transportation and lairage at slaughterhouses is complex in subtropical regions, where increasing temperature and high RH are the major concerns regarding animal survival before slaughter. In this study we assessed the influence of a controlled lairage environment on preslaughter mortality rates of broiler chickens that were transported during different seasons of the year and had varying lairage times in the subtropical climate. Preslaughter data from 13,937 broiler flocks were recorded daily during 2006 in a commercial slaughterhouse in southeastern Brazil. The main factors that influenced daily mortality rate were mean dry bulb temperature and RH, lairage time, daily periods, density of broilers per crate, season of the year, stocking density per lorry, transport time, and distance between farms and slaughterhouse. A holding area at the slaughterhouse with environmental control was assessed. Using a double GLM for mean and dispersion modeling, the seasons were found to have significant effects (P < 0.05) on average mortality rates. The highest incidence was observed in summer (0.42%), followed by spring (0.39%), winter (0.28%), and autumn (0.23%). A decrease of preslaughter mortality of broilers during summer (P < 0.05) was observed when the lairage time was increased, mainly after 1 h of exposure to a controlled environment. Thus, lairage for 3 to 4 h in a controlled lairage environment during the summer and spring is necessary to reduce the thermal load of broiler chickens.

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Objective: Fat-free mass (FFM) reduction and the tendency for a reduction in surrounding fatty issue and increase in the middle are a natural consequence of growing old and should be studied in order to gain a better understanding of the aging process. This study set out to find the FFM differences between active elderly women in two age groups (60-69 and 70-80 years) and to determine which of the anthropometric measurements, body weight (BW), abdominal circumference (AC), or body mass index (BMI) are the best predictors of FFM variation within the group. Methods: Eighty-one (n = 81) active elderly women of the Third Age willingly signed up to participate in the research during the activities at the University of the Third Age (UTA) in Brazil. The research was approved by the Research Ethics Committee of the Faculty of Medical Sciences of the State University of Campinas (UNICAMP). Body weight (BW), height (H) and the BMI were measured according to the international standards. The AC was measured in centimetres at the H of the navel and body composition was ascertained using bioimpedance analysis. The SAS program was used to perform the statistical analysis of independent samples and parametric data. Results: The results showed FFM values with significant differences between the two groups, with the lowest values occurring among the women who were over 70 years of age. In the analysis, the Pearson`s Correlation Coefficient for each measured independent variable was ascertained, with the BW measurement showing the highest ratio (0.900). Conclusions: The BW measurement was regarded as reliable, low-cost and easy to use for monitoring FFM in elderly women who engage in physical activities. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

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The spleen is a secondary lymphoid organ that harbours a variety of cells such as T and B lymphocytes and antigen-presenting cells important to immune response development. In this study, we evaluated the impact of spleen removal in the immune response to experimental Trypanosoma cruzi infection. C57BL/6 mice were infected with Y strain of the parasite and infection was followed daily. Mice that underwent splenectomy had fewer parasites in peripheral blood at the peak of infection; however, mortality was increased. Histological analysis of heart and liver tissues revealed an increased number of parasites and inflammatory infiltrates at these sites. Spleen removal was associated with reduction in IFN-gamma and TNF-alpha production during infection as well as with a decrease in specific antibody secretion. Haematological disorders were also detected. Splenectomized mice exhibited severe anaemia and decreased bone marrow cell numbers. Our results indicate that spleen integrity is critical in T. cruzi infection for the immune response against the parasite, as well as for the control of bone marrow haematological function.

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In recent years, the phrase 'genomic medicine' has increasingly been used to describe a new development in medicine that holds great promise for human health. This new approach to health care uses the knowledge of an individual's genetic make-up to identify those that are at a higher risk of developing certain diseases and to intervene at an earlier stage to prevent these diseases. Identifying genes that are involved in disease aetiology will provide researchers with tools to develop better treatments and cures. A major role within this field is attributed to 'predictive genomic medicine', which proposes screening healthy individuals to identify those who carry alleles that increase their susceptibility to common diseases, such as cancers and heart disease. Physicians could then intervene even before the disease manifests and advise individuals with a higher genetic risk to change their behaviour - for instance, to exercise or to eat a healthier diet - or offer drugs or other medical treatment to reduce their chances of developing these diseases. These promises have fallen on fertile ground among politicians, health-care providers and the general public, particularly in light of the increasing costs of health care in developed societies. Various countries have established databases on the DNA and health information of whole populations as a first step towards genomic medicine. Biomedical research has also identified a large number of genes that could be used to predict someone's risk of developing a certain disorder. But it would be premature to assume that genomic medicine will soon become reality, as many problems remain to be solved. Our knowledge about most disease genes and their roles is far from sufficient to make reliable predictions about a patient’s risk of actually developing a disease. In addition, genomic medicine will create new political, social, ethical and economic challenges that will have to be addressed in the near future.