Calculating the balance between water resources and water demands:an approach using risk analysis

Predicting future need for water resources has traditionally been, at best, a crude mixture of art and science. This has prevented the evaluation of water need from being carried out in either a consistent or comprehensive manner. This inconsistent and somewhat arbitrary approach to water resources planning led to well publicised premature developments in the 1970's and 1980's but privatisation of the Water Industry, including creation of the Office of Water Services and the National Rivers Authority in 1989, turned the tide of resource planning to the point where funding of schemes and their justification by the Regulators could no longer be assumed. Furthermore, considerable areas of uncertainty were beginning to enter the debate and complicate the assessment It was also no longer appropriate to consider that contingencies would continue to lie solely on the demand side of the equation. An inability to calculate the balance between supply and demand may mean an inability to meet standards of service or, arguably worse, an excessive provision of water resources and excessive costs to customers. United Kingdom Water Industry Research limited (UKWlR) Headroom project in 1998 provided a simple methodology for the calculation of planning margins. This methodology, although well received, was not, however, accepted by the Regulators as a tool sufficient to promote resource development. This thesis begins by considering the history of water resource planning in the UK, moving on to discuss events following privatisation of the water industry post·1985. The mid section of the research forms the bulk of original work and provides a scoping exercise which reveals a catalogue of uncertainties prevalent within the supply-demand balance. Each of these uncertainties is considered in terms of materiality, scope, and whether it can be quantified within a risk analysis package. Many of the areas of uncertainty identified would merit further research. A workable, yet robust, methodology for evaluating the balance between water resources and water demands by using a spreadsheet based risk analysis package is presented. The technique involves statistical sampling and simulation such that samples are taken from input distributions on both the supply and demand side of the equation and the imbalance between supply and demand is calculated in the form of an output distribution. The percentiles of the output distribution represent different standards of service to the customer. The model allows dependencies between distributions to be considered, for improved uncertainties to be assessed and for the impact of uncertain solutions to any imbalance to be calculated directly. The method is considered a Significant leap forward in the field of water resource planning.

Automatically Extracting Procedural Knowledge from Instructional Texts using Natural Language Processing

Procedural knowledge is the knowledge required to perform certain tasks, and forms an important part of expertise. A major source of procedural knowledge is natural language instructions. While these readable instructions have been useful learning resources for human, they are not interpretable by machines. Automatically acquiring procedural knowledge in machine interpretable formats from instructions has become an increasingly popular research topic due to their potential applications in process automation. However, it has been insufficiently addressed. This paper presents an approach and an implemented system to assist users to automatically acquire procedural knowledge in structured forms from instructions. We introduce a generic semantic representation of procedures for analysing instructions, using which natural language techniques are applied to automatically extract structured procedures from instructions. The method is evaluated in three domains to justify the generality of the proposed semantic representation as well as the effectiveness of the implemented automatic system.

Speech and non-speech stimuli in the prediction of early reading skills:the influence of processing demands and response-type

Purpose: Both phonological (speech) and auditory (non-speech) stimuli have been shown to predict early reading skills. However, previous studies have failed to control for the level of processing required by tasks administered across the two levels of stimuli. For example, phonological tasks typically tap explicit awareness e.g., phoneme deletion, while auditory tasks usually measure implicit awareness e.g., frequency discrimination. Therefore, the stronger predictive power of speech tasks may be due to their higher processing demands, rather than the nature of the stimuli. Method: The present study uses novel tasks that control for level of processing (isolation, repetition and deletion) across speech (phonemes and nonwords) and non-speech (tones) stimuli. 800 beginning readers at the onset of literacy tuition (mean age 4 years and 7 months) were assessed on the above tasks as well as word reading and letter-knowledge in the first part of a three time-point longitudinal study. Results: Time 1 results reveal a significantly higher association between letter-sound knowledge and all of the speech compared to non-speech tasks. Performance was better for phoneme than tone stimuli, and worse for deletion than isolation and repetition across all stimuli. Conclusions: Results are consistent with phonological accounts of reading and suggest that level of processing required by the task is less important than stimuli type in predicting the earliest stage of reading.

Target consolidation under high temporal processing demands as revealed by MEG

We investigated the nature of resource limitations during visual target processing by imposing high temporal processing demands on the cognitive system. This was achieved by embedding target stimuli into rapid-serial-visual-presentation-streams (RSVP). In RSVP streams, it is difficult to report the second of two targets (T2) if the second follows the first (T1) within 500 ms. This effect is known as the attentional blink (AB). For the AB to occur, it is essential that T1 is followed by a mask, as without such a stimulus, the AB is significantly attenuated. Usually, it is thought that T1 processing is delayed by the mask, which in turn delays T2 processing, increasing the likelihood for T2 failures (AB). Predictions regarding amplitudes and latencies of cortical responses (M300, the magnetic counterpart to the P300) to targets were tested by investigating the neurophysiological effects of the post-T1 item (mask) by means of magnetoencephalography (MEG). Cortical M300 responses to targets drawn from prefrontal sources – areas associated with working memory – revealed accelerated T1 yet delayed T2 processing with an intervening mask. The explanation we are proposing assumes that “protection” of ongoing T1 processing necessitated by the occurrence of the mask suppresses other activation patterns, which boosts T1 yet also hinders further processing. Our data shed light on the mechanisms employed by the human brain for ensuring visual target processing under high temporal processing demands, which is hypothesized to occur at the expense of subsequently presented information.

Shared cognitive processes underlying past and future thinking:the impact of imagery and concurrent task demands on event specificity

Recent literature has argued that whereas remembering the past and imagining the future make use of shared cognitive substrates, simulating future events places heavier demands on executive resources. These propositions were explored in 3 experiments comparing the impact of imagery and concurrent task demands on speed and accuracy of past event retrieval and future event simulation. Results provide support for the suggestion that both past and future episodes can be constructed through 2 mechanisms: a noneffortful "direct" pathway and a controlled, effortful "generative" pathway. However, limited evidence emerged for the suggestion that simulating of future, compared with retrieving past, episodes places heavier demands on executive resources; only under certain conditions did it emerge as a more error prone and lengthier process. The findings are discussed in terms of how retrieval and simulation make use of the same cognitive substrates in subtly different ways. © 2011 American Psychological Association.

Web designers, social e-value creation and e-business planning:understanding resistance from conflicting demands

This chapter investigates the conflicting demands faced by web designers in the development of social e-atmospherics that aim to encourage e-value creation, thus strengthening and prolonging market planning strategies. While recent studies have shown that significant shifts are occurring concerning the importance of users’ generated content by way of social e-communication tools (e.g. blogs), these trends are also creating expectations that social and cultural cues ought to become a greater part of e-atmospherics and e-business strategies. Yet, there is growing evidence that organizations are resisting such efforts, fearing that they will lose control of their e-marketing strategy. This chapter contributes to the theory and literature on online cross-cultural understanding and the impact website designers (meso-level) can have on improving the sustainability of e-business planning, departing from recent studies that focus mainly on firms’ e-business plans (macro-level) or final consumers (micro-level). A second contribution is made with respect to online behavior regarding the advancement of technologies that facilitate the development and shaping of new social e-atmospherics that affect users’ behavior and long term e-business strategies through the avoidance of traditional, formal decision making processes and marketing strategy mechanisms implemented by firms. These issues have been highlighted in the literature on the co-production and co-creation of value, which few organizations have thus far integrated in their strategic and pragmatic e-business plans. Drawing upon fifteen online interviews with web designers in the USA, as key non-institutional actors at the meso-level who are developing what future websites will be like, this chapter analyzes ways in which identifying points of resistance and conflicting demands can lead to engagement with the debate over the online co-creation of value and more sustainable future e-business planning. A number of points of resistance to the inclusion of more e-social atmospherics are identified, and the implications for web designers’ roles and web design planning are discussed along with the limitations of the study and potential future research for e-business studies.

Instructional change through collaboration and reflection

The purpose of this study was to investigate the effectiveness of the Facilitator-Collaborative-Reflective Model, a strategic plan for changing teachers' practices and beliefs, on a selected group of middle school teachers. This model of staff development training was based on Corey's (1953) Cooperative-Action-Research Model and Anders and Richardson (1994) Collaborative-Reflective Model. It supports the notion that earning a teachers' commitment to change by focusing on collaboration, reflection and the normative-re-educative process aids in altering teachers' beliefs and practices especially crucial to the change process. The year-long training provided for reflection, inquiry, and learning that was useful to teachers as they pursued their goals with their students. The lead teacher, as a change agent and transformational leader, assisted in this commitment to change by improving the teachers' self-concepts as they slowly changed. The collaborative and receptive environment of the staff development fostered acceptance and stimulation of ideas.^ Given the collaborative nature of the change process, qualitative research methods were used in the investigation. The research process was based on Stufflebeam's Context, Input, Process and Product (CIPP) Evaluation Model (Madaus, Scriven & Stufflebeam, 1983). This allowed for all three factors of the staff development model to be evaluated. The case studies and focus group were effective in discerning any actual change in practices or beliefs.^ The findings of the qualitative evaluation, consisting of a baseline survey, case studies, questionnaire and modified focus group interviews, concluded that all of the teachers were strongly influenced by the intervention model which was the subject of this study. From this evaluation, three distinct indicators were looked at to determine if any change in the teachers' practices and beliefs emerged: (1) change in practice and belief, (2) reflective feedback and (3) collaborative reflection. These indicators were common throughout the teacher responses thus substantiating the infusion of the Facilitator-Collaborative-Reflective Model at the school level for effective staff development. ^

A distance education case study: A comparison of instructional delivery methods practiced by higher education faculty and emerging standards

The purpose of this research was to compare the delivery methods as practiced by higher education faculty teaching distance courses with recommended or emerging standard instructional delivery methods for distance education. Previous research shows that traditional-type instructional strategies have been used in distance education and that there has been no training to distance teach. Secondary data, however, appear to suggest emerging practices which could be pooled toward the development of standards. This is a qualitative study based on the constant comparative analysis approach of grounded theory.^ Participants (N = 5) of this study were full-time faculty teaching distance education courses. The observation method used was unobtrusive content analysis of videotaped instruction. Triangulation of data was accomplished through one-on-one in-depth interviews and from literature review. Due to the addition of non-media content being analyzed, a special time-sampling technique was designed by the researcher--influenced by content analyst theories of media-related data--to sample portions of the videotape instruction that were observed and counted. A standardized interview guide was used to collect data from in-depth interviews. Coding was done based on categories drawn from review of literature, and from Cranton and Weston's (1989) typology of instructional strategies. The data were observed, counted, tabulated, analyzed, and interpreted solely by the researcher. It should be noted however, that systematic and rigorous data collection and analysis led to credible data.^ The findings of this study supported the proposition that there are no standard instructional practices for distance teaching. Further, the findings revealed that of the emerging practices suggested by proponents and by faculty who teach distance education courses, few were practiced even minimally. A noted example was the use of lecture and questioning. Questioning, as a teaching tool was used a great deal, with students at the originating site but not with distance students. Lectures were given, but were mostly conducted in traditional fashion--long in duration and with no interactive component.^ It can be concluded from the findings that while there are no standard practices for instructional delivery for distance education, there appears to be sufficient information from secondary and empirical data to initiate some standard instructional practices. Therefore, grounded in this research data is the theory that the way to arrive at some instructional delivery standards for televised distance education is a pooling of the tacitly agreed-upon emerging practices by proponents and practicing instructors. Implicit in this theory is a need for experimental research so that these emerging practices can be tested, tried, and proven, ultimately resulting in formal standards for instructional delivery in television education. ^

What secondary English to speakers of other languages (ESOL) teachers know about social and academic language and instructional strategies for limited English proficient students

The purpose of this study was to examine what secondary English to Speakers of Other Languages (ESOL) teachers understand about social and academic language, what instructional strategies they use for Limited English Proficient (LEP) students, and how these concepts are operationalized in their daily practice. ^ This was a mixed method study incorporating both quantitative and qualitative data collection and interpretation. Written questionnaires and individual interviews addressed the questions on teachers' definitions of social and academic language and their strategy use. Classroom observations provided verification of their definitions and their descriptions of instruction for academic language. ^ Findings indicated that teachers' definitions of social and academic language were still developing and that there were ambiguities in identifying examples of social and academic language. The use of graphic organizers or visual supports, groups or peer partners, role play or drama, and modeling were the strategies teachers consistently listed for beginner, intermediate, advanced and multiple level classes. Additionally, teachers' descriptions of their instruction were congruent with what was observed in their classroom practice. ^ It appeared that this population of secondary ESOL teachers was in the process of evolving their definitions of social and academic language and were at different stages in this evolution. Teachers' definitions of language influenced their instruction. Furthermore, those who had clear constructs of language were able to operationalize them in their classroom instruction. ^

A study of teachers' espoused instructional beliefs

The purpose of this study was to investigate teachers' espoused instructional beliefs and whether they differed in relation to schools' socioeconomic status, extent of teachers' educational background, or extent of teachers' classroom experience. The study comprised a total of 242 Miami-Dade County public school educators who responded to a thirty-nine question Likert scale, Literacy Instructional Practices Questionnaire. Eighteen schools, three from each of the six regions, were purposively selected based on the socioeconomic status of students. Nine participants were interviewed using semi-standardized interview procedures and open-ended questioning techniques. ^ Multivariate Analysis of Variance (MANOVA) results revealed that teachers' espoused beliefs concerning the instruction of literacy and forces and influences affecting instruction do not significantly differ depending on schools' socioeconomic status, extent of teachers' educational background, or extent of teachers' classroom experience. The majority of teachers appear to follow a top-down generated direct instruction model. Generally, students are taught as a whole class and ability grouped for specific skill instruction utilizing commercially produced reading and language arts texts. ^ There was no evidence of a relationship between teachers' espoused beliefs concerning the model of instruction that they practice or teachers' espoused beliefs concerning research and its application to practice and the three independent variables. Interview data corroborated much of the information garnered through the questionnaire. However, interview participants espoused the belief that research did not influence their selection of instructional practices. ^ Although teachers perceive of themselves as eclectic in their espoused instructional beliefs, they appear to follow a skills based direct instruction pedagogy in practice. Much of what teachers believe constitutes effective practice, few researchers recommend, affirming the findings of Calderhead (1993) and the National Educational Research Policy and Priorities Board (U.S. Department of Education, 1998, p. 18) that “educators rarely know research, seek it out, or act in accordance with its results.” ^

The effects of a General Instructional Strategies course on the utilization of effective instructional strategies by teachers

The focus of this study was to explain the extent to which theoretically effective teaching strategies taught in a course on generic instructional strategies are being implemented by teachers in their actual teaching practice. ^ A multivariate causal-comparative (ex-post-facto) design was used to answer the research question. A teacher observation protocol, the General Instructional Strategies Analysis (GISA) was constructed and used to assess the utilization of instructional strategies in the classroom. The data of this study also included open-ended field notes taken during observations. ^ Multivariate Analyses of Variance (MANOVA) was used to compare the teaching strategies (set, effective explanation, hands-on activity, cooperative learning activity, higher order questioning, closure) of the group who had taken a general instructional strategies course (N=36) and the group who had not (N=36). Results showed a statistically significant difference between the two groups. The group who had taken the course implemented these strategies more effectively in almost all categories of effective teaching. Follow-up univariate tests of the dependent variables showed significant differences between the two groups in five of the six areas (hands-on activity being an exception). A second MANOVA compared the two groups on the effective use of attending behaviors (teacher movement/eye contact/body language/physical space, brief verbal acknowledgements/voice inflection/modulation/pitch, use of visuals, prompting/probing, praise/feedback/rewards, wait-time I and II). Results also showed a multivariate difference between the two groups. Follow-up univariate tests on the related dependent variables showed that five of the six were significantly different between the two groups. The group who had taken the course implemented the strategies more effectively. An analysis of the field notes provided further evidence regarding the pervasiveness of these differences between the teaching practices of the two groups. ^ It was concluded that taking a course in general instructional strategies increases the utilization of effective strategies in the classroom by teachers. ^

The use of curriculum modifications and instructional accommodations to provide access for middle school students with autism to the general curriculum

The number of students identified as having autism increased by 500% in the past 10 years (United States Government Accountability Office, 2005). All students with disabilities are required to be placed in least restrictive environments and to be given access to the general curriculum in the major subjects of math, reading, writing, and science as mandated by federal legislation such as the Individuals with Disabilities Education Act (IDEA, 2004) and No Child Left Behind (NCLB, 2001). As a result of this legislation, an increasing number of students with autism are being educated in inclusive classrooms. Most studies on general education access and curriculum modifications and/or instructional accommodations center on students with intellectual disabilities (e.g. Soukup, Wehmeyer, Bashinski, & Boviard, 2007; Wehmeyer, Lattin, Lapp-Rincker, & Agran, 2003). Wehmeyer et al. (2003) and Soukup et al. (2007) found included students with intellectual disabilities had more access to the general curriculum than mostly self-contained students. This meant included students were more likely to be working on the general curriculum as mandated by NCLB than those in only self-contained classrooms. This study builds and expands the research of Wehmeyer et al., as well as Soukup et al., by examining how students with autism are given access to the general curriculum through curriculum modifications and instructional accommodations used by general education teachers in three schools. This investigation focused on nine inclusive classrooms for students with autism using a parallel mixed methods design (Newman, Newman, & Newman, 2011). Classroom observations using both an IEP related checklist and field notes, teacher interviews, an archival document review of the Individual Education Plan (IEP) for the selected students with autism were performed. Findings of this study were organized by interview questions and subsequent coding categories. Quantitative data were organized in a nominal scale. Participants asserted that their middle school students with autism functioned well in their classrooms, occasionally exhibiting behavioral differences. Most instructional accommodations on IEPs were being implemented by participants, and participants often provided additional instructional accommodations not mandated by the IEP. The majority of participants credited county workshops for their knowledge of instructional accommodations.