Modelling basin level allocation of water in the Murray-Darling Basin in a world of uncertainty, Murray-Darling Program Working Papers WPM05-1, Risk and Sustainable Management Group, 8 February 2005

Abstract: The Murray-Darling Basin comprises over 1 million km2; it lies within four states and one territory; and over 12, 800 GL of irrigation water is used to produce over 40% of the nation's gross value of agricultural production. This production is used by a diverse collection of some-times mutually exclusive commodities (e.g. pasture; stone fruit; grapes; cotton and field crops). The supply of water for irrigation is subject to climatic and policy uncertainty. Variable inflows mean that water property rights do not provide a guaranteed supply. With increasing public scrutiny and environmental issues facing irrigators, greater pressure is being placed on this finite resource. The uncertainty of the water supply, water quality (salinity), combined with where water is utilised, while attempting to maximising return for investment makes for an interesting research field. The utilisation and comparison of a GAMS and Excel based modelling approach has been used to ask: where should we allocate water?; amongst what commodities?; and how does this affect both the quantity of water and the quality of water along the Murray-Darling river system?

Electron beam current loss at the high-vacuum-high-pressure boundary in the environmental scanning electron microscope

A significant loss in electron probe current can occur before the electron beam enters the specimen chamber of an environmental scanning electron microscope (ESEM). This loss results from electron scattering in a gaseous jet formed inside and downstream (above) the pressure-limiting aperture (PLA), which separates the high-pressure and high-vacuum regions of the microscope. The electron beam loss above the PLA has been calculated for three different ESEMs, each with a different PLA geometry: an ElectroScan E3, a Philips XL30 ESEM, and a prototype instrument. The mass thickness of gas above the PLA in each case has been determined by Monte Carlo simulation of the gas density variation in the gas jet. It has been found that the PLA configurations used in the commercial instruments produce considerable loss in the electron probe current that dramatically degrades their performance at high chamber pressure and low accelerating voltage. These detrimental effects are minimized in the prototype instrument, which has an optimized thin-foil PLA design.

Detecting environmental impacts on metapopulations of mound spring invertebrates - Assessing an incidence function model

We use a stochastic patch occupancy model of invertebrates in the Mound Springs ecosystem of South Australia to assess the ability of incidence function models to detect environmental impacts on metapopulations. We assume that the probability of colonisation decreases with increasing isolation and the probability of extinction is constant across spring vents. We run the models to quasi-equilibrium, and then impose an impact by increasing the local extinction probability. We sample the output at various times pre- and postimpact, and examine the probability of detecting a significant change in population parameters. The incidence function model approach turns out to have little power to detect environmental impacts on metapopulations with small numbers of patches. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Effect of Coating Patterns with Spinel-Based Investment on the Castability and Porosity of Titanium Cast into Three Phosphate-Bonded Investments

Purpose: This study evaluated the effect of pattern coating with spinel-based investment Rematitan Ultra (RU) on the castability and internal porosity of commercially pure (CP) titanium invested into phosphate-bonded investments. The apparent porosity of the investment was also measured. Materials and Methods: Square patterns (15 x 15 x 0.3 mm(3)) were either coated with RU, or not and invested into the phosphate-bonded investments: Rematitan Plus (RP), Rema Exakt (RE), Castorit Super C (CA), and RU (control group). The castings were made in an Ar-arc vacuum-pressure machine. The castability area (mm(2)) was measured by an image-analysis system (n = 10). For internal porosity, the casting (12 x 12 x 2 mm(3)) was studied by the X-ray method, and the projected porous area percentage was measured by an image-analysis system (n = 10). The apparent porosity of the investment (n = 10) was measured in accordance with the ASTM C373-88 standard. Results: Analysis of variance (One-way ANOVA) of castability was significant, and the Tukey test indicated that RU had the highest mean but the investing technique with coating increased the castability for all phosphate-bonded investments. The analysis of the internal porosity of the cast by the nonparametric test demonstrated that the RP, RE, and CA with coating and RP without coating did not differ from the control group (RU), while the CA and RE casts without coating were more porous. The one-way ANOVA of apparent porosity of the investment was significant, and the Tukey test showed that the means of RU (36.10%) and CA (37.22%) were higher than those of RP (25.91%) and RE (26.02%). Conclusion: Pattern coating with spinel-based material prior to phosphate-bonded investments can influence the castability and the internal porosity of CP Ti.

Genetic and environmental contributions to educational attainment in Australia

The genetic and environmental contributions to educational attainment in Australia are examined using a multiple regression model drawn from the medical research literature. Data from a large sample of Australian twins are analysed. The findings indicate that at least as much as 50 percent and perhaps as much as 65 percent of the variance in educational attainments can be attributed to genetic endowments. It is suggested that only around 25 percent of the variance in educational attainments may be due to environmental factors, though this contribution is shown to be around 40 percent when adjustments for measurement error and assortative mating are made. The high fraction of the observed variation in educational attainments due to genetic differences is consistent with results reported by Heath et al. (Heath, A.C., Berg, K., Eaves, L.J., Solaas, M.H., Corey, L.A., Sundet, J., Magnus, P., Nance, W.E., 1985. Education policy and the heritability of educational attainment. Nature 314(6013), 734-736.), Tambs et al. (Tambs, K., Sundet, J.M., Magnus, P., Berg, K., 1989. Genetic and environmental contributions to the covariance between occupational status, educational attainment and IQ: a study of twins. Behavior Genetics 19(2), 209-222.), Vogler and Fulker (Vogler, G.P., Fulker, D.W., 1983. Familial resemblance for educational attainment. Behavior Generics 13(4), 341-354.) and Behrman and Taubman (Behrman, J., Taubman, P., 1989. Is schooling mostly in the genes? Nature-nurture decomposition using data on relatives. Journal of Political Economy 97(6), 1425-1446.), suggesting that the finding is robust. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Towards a molecular epidemiology of alcohol dependence analysing the interplay of genetic and environmental risk factors

Background Progress in identifying genetic factors protective against alcohol dependence (AlcD) requires a paradigm shift in psychiatric epidemiology. Aims To integrate analysis of research into the genetics of alcoholism. Method Data from prospective questionnaire and interview surveys of the Australian twin panel, and from a subsample who underwent alcohol challenge, were analysed. Results In men, effects of alcohol dehydrogenase ADH2*1/*2 genotype or high alcohol sensitivity (risk-decreasing), and of history of childhood conduct disorder, or having monozygotic co-twin or twin sister with AlcD (risk-increasing) were significant and comparable in magnitude. Religious affiliation (Anglican versus other) was associated with the ADH2 genotype, but did not explain the associations with AlcD symptoms. No protective effect of the ADH2*1/*2 genotype was observed in women. Conclusions The early onset and strong familial aggregation of AlcD, and opportunity for within-family tests of genetic association to avoid confounding effects, make epidemiological family studies of adolescents and young adults and their families a priority.

The influence of genetic and environmental factors in estimations of current body size, desired body size, and body dissatisfaction

The objective was to investigate the genetic epidemiology of figural stimuli. Standard figural stimuli were available from 5,325 complete twin pairs: 1,751 (32.9%) were monozygotic females, 1,068 (20.1%) were dizygotic females, 752 (14.1%) were monozygotic males, 495 (9.3%) were dizygotic males, and 1,259 (23.6%) were dizygotic male-female pairs. Univariate twin analyses were used to examine the influences on the individual variation in current body size and ideal body size. These data were analysed separately for men and women in each of five age groups. A factorial analysis of variance, with polychoric correlations between twin pairs as the dependent variable, and age, sex, zygosity, and the three interaction terms (age x sex, age x zygosity, sex x zygosity) as independent variables, was used to examine trends across the whole data set. Results showed genetic influences had the largest impact on the individual variation in current body size measures, whereas non-shared environmental influences were associated with the majority of individual variation in ideal body size. There was a significant main effect of zygosity (heritability) in predicting polychoric correlations for current body size and body dissatisfaction. There was a significant main effect of gender and zygosity in predicting ideal body size, with a gender x zygosity interaction. In common with BMI, heritability is important in influencing the estimation of current body size. Selection of desired body size for both men and women is more strongly influenced by environmental factors.

Availability of folate bound to folate-binding protein: Environmental effects

The effect of FBP on folate bio-availability depends on its environment. The FBP of whole WPC enhances bioavailability of folates more than does purified FBP and its efficacy might be even greater when lipids are removed from the WPC. FBP polymerises and folate release from the polymer is found to be slower than that from the monomer. FBP has a role also as a folate receptor at cell surfaces and in this role folate binding increases polymerisation of FBP attached to lipid membranes.

The genetic and environmental relationship between the interpersonal sensitivity measure (IPSM) and the personality dimensions of Eysenck and Cloninger

A shortened version of the Interpersonal Sensitivity Measure (IPSM) developed to predict depression prone personalities was administered in a self-report questionnaire to a community-based sample of 3269 Australian twin pairs aged 18-28 years, along with Eysenck's EPQ and Cloninger's TPQ. The IPSM included four sub-scales: Separation Anxiety (SEP); Interpersonal Sensitivity (INT); Fragile Inner-Self (FIS); and Timidity (TIM). Univariate analysis revealed that individual differences in the IPSM sub-scale scores were best explained by additive genetic and specific environmental effects. Confirming previous research findings, familial aggregation for the EPQ and TPQ personality dimensions was entirely due to additive genetic effects. In the multivariate case, a model comprising additive genetic and specific environmental effects best explained the covariation between the latent factors for male and female twin pairs alike. The EPQ and TPQ dimensions accounted for moderate to large proportions of the genetic variance (40-76%) in the IPSM sub-scales, while most of the non-shared environment variance was unique to the IPSM sub-scales. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Forced emigration, favourable outcomes

The discipline of public health and preventive medicine in Australia and New Zealand had its genesis in the advocacy of 18th and 19th century military pioneers. Military (Royal Navy and British Army) surgeons were posted to Australia as part of their non-discretionary duty. Civilian doctors emigrated variously for adventure, escapism and gold fever. One group, a particularly influential group disproportionate to their numbers, came in one sense as forced emigrants because of chronic respiratory disease in general, and tuberculosis in particular. Tuberculosis was an occupational hazard of 19th century medical and surgical practice throughout western Europe. This paper analyses six examples of such emigration which had, perhaps unforeseen at the time, significant results in the advancement of public health. Such emigration was in one sense voluntary, but in another was forced upon the victims in their quest for personal survival. In Australia, such medical individuals became leading advocates and successful catalysts for change in such diverse fields as social welfare, public health, the preventive aspects of medical practice, child health, nutrition and medical education. A number of such public health pioneers today have no physical memorials; but their influence is to be seen in the ethos of medical practice in Australia and New Zealand today. Their memory is further perpetuated in the names of Australian native wildflowers and trees that symbolise not only a healthy environment but the longterm investment, accrued with interest, of the institution of public health measures for which their advocacy achieved much success.