Utilisation of Short Term Electricity Derivatives in Industrial Energy Management

Työn päätavoite on selvittää kuinka erityisesti sähkön markkinahinnan ennustamiseen ja johdannaismarkkinoiden tietämykseen perustuva lyhyen tähtäimen sähköjohdannaisten hyödyntäminen tapahtuu teollisessa energianhallinnassa. Tätä aihetta lähestytään luomalla prosessi lyhyen tähtäimen sähköjohdannaisten hyödyntämiselle. Prosessi esitellään ja selvitetään aina lähtökohdista todelliseen kaupankäyntiin asti erillisen esimerkkitehtaan avulla.Lyhyen tähtäimen sähköjohdannaisten hyödyntäminen teollisessa energianhallinnassa perustuu pääosin tulevaisuuden odotuksiin sähkön markkinahinnan kehittymisestä sekä tehtaiden operatiiviseen tilanteeseen. Operatiiviseen tilanteeseen perustuva lyhyen tähtäimen sähköjohdannaisten kaupankäynti on pääasiassa pitkän tähtäimen suojausten sopeuttamista lyhyelle tähtäimelle sopivaksi.Hinnan ennustamisella on suuri rooli lyhyen tähtäimen sähköjohdannaisten hyödyntämisprosessissa. Työssä esitelty hinnan ennustamismalli on sopiva päivä- ja viikkotason Nord Poolin Elspot -systeemihinnan ennustamiseen. Elspot -systeemihinnan ennustamismalli on suunniteltu käytännönläheiseksi ja sen perustana ovat todelliset fysikaaliset ja mitattavat suureet. Futuurimarkkinatietämys on tarpeen lyhyen tähtäimen johdannaisia käytettäessä. Työssä tutkitaan yleisiä markkinoiden odotuksia ja futuurimarkkinoiden tietoisuuden kehittymistä koskien tulevaa vallitsevaa tilannetta. Työssä luodaan myös työkalu, mikä auttaa kaupan laatijaa muodostamaan suuntaa-antavat todennäköisyydet eri hintanäkemyksille ja paikallistamaan mahdolliset markkinoiden epätodennäköiset hintaodotukset.Kokemukset Elspot -systeemihinnan ennustamismallin soveltamisesta ovat lupaavia. Lisäksi havainnot futuurimarkkinoiden käyttäytymisestä Nord Poolissa ja muodostettu työkalu suuntaa-antavien todennäköisyyksien selvittämiseksi auttavat kaupan laatijaa päätöksenteossa. Lyhyen tähtäimen sähköjohdannaisten hyödyntäminen teollisessa energianhallinnassa on periaatteessa mahdollista esitellyn prosessin avulla, vaikka täydellinen käyttöönotto vaatisi vielä joitakin järjestelyjä. Keskittymällä tilanteisiin jotka työssä kuvatulla prosessilla ovat hoidettavissa, työssä määritellyllä menettelyllä on mahdollisuudet saavuttaa epäedullisen hintakehityksen riskin väheneminen ja parempi taloudellinen tulos teollisen energianhallinnan sähkökaupankäynnissä.

New Climate Change Related EC Directives and Their Interrelations to Green Electricity and Certificate Practices

Työn päätavoite on tutkia vihreän sähkön ja sertifikaattien kaupan ja EY:n uusien ilmastonmuutosta koskevien direktiivien ja direktiiviehdotusten välisiä yhteyksiä. Tutkimuksessa käsitellään direktiiviä sähköntuotannosta uusiutuvilla energialähteillä ja direktiiviehdotuksia Euroopan Unionin alueen päästökaupasta sekä yhdistetyn sähkön ja lämmön tuotannon lisäämisestä. Työ keskittyy erään suomalaisen metsäteollisuusyrityksen toimiin ilmastonmuutoksen hidastamiseksi. Tutkimus keskittyy pääosin EU:n suunnitelmaan aloittaa Unionin jäsenvaltioiden välinen päästökauppa, koska tämä järjestelmä tulee toteutuessaan olemaan teollisuuden kannalta merkittävä. Tilannetta on analysoitu neljän sellu- ja paperitehtaan hiilidioksidipäästölaskelmien avulla. Työssä kehitettyjä laskumalleja voidaan käyttää avuksi yhtiön muilla tehtailla. Tämän lisäksi työssä on luotu malli energiainvestointien arvioimiseksi tulevaisuudessa ottamalla päästöoikeuden hinnan vaikutus huomioon. Päästökaupan vaikutukset pohjoismaisilla vapautuneilla sähkömarkkinoilla on analysoity, koska teollinen sähkönhankinta on suuresti riippuvainen tästä markkinasta. Suomen metsäteollisuuden oma yhdistetty sähkön ja lämmön tuotanto erityisesti uusiutuvista energialähteistä tulee olemaan entistäkin tärkeämpää tiukentuvassa toimintaympäristössä. Tällä hetkellä on käynnissä kokeilu lisäarvon saamiseksi omalle sähköntuotannolle. Tällä haetaan kokemuksia ja valmiutta tulevaa päästökauppaa varten.

A Reappraisal of the Allocation Puzzle through the Portfolio Approach

Paradoxically, high-growth, high-investment developing countries tend to experience capital outflows. This paper shows that this allocation puzzle can be explained simply by introducing uninsurable idiosyncratic investment risk in the neoclassical growth model with international trade in bonds, and by taking into account not only TFP catch-up, but also the capital wedge, that is, the distortions on the return to capital. The model fits the two following facts, documented on a sample of 67 countries between 1980 and 2003: (i) TFP growth is positively correlated with capital outflows in a sample including creditor countries; (ii) the long-run level of capital per efficient unit of labor is positively correlated with capital outflows. Consistently, we show that the capital flows predicted by the model are positively correlated with the actual ones in this sample once the capital wedge is accounted for. The fact that Asia dominates global imbalances can be explained by its relatively low capital wedge.

The Dynamic Customer Portfolio Method in Customer Relationship Management

Tutkielman tavoitteena on määritellä keskeiset ja sopivat asiakasportfoliomallit ja asiakasmatriisit asiakassuhteen määrittämiseen. Tutkimus keskittyy asiakassuhteen arvottamiseen ja avainasiakkaiden määrittämiseen kohdeyrityksessä. Keskeisimmät ja sopivimmat asiakasportfliomallit huomioidaan asiakkaiden arvioinnissa. Tutkielman teoriaosassa esitellään tunnetuimmat ja käytetyimmät asiakasportfoliomallit ja matriisit alan kirjallisuuden perusteella. Tämän lisäksi asiakasportfoliomalleihin yhdistetään näkökulmia suhdemarkkinoinnin, asiakkuuksien johtamisen ja tuoteportfolioiden teorioista. Keskeisimmät kirjallisuuden lähteet ovat johtamisen ja markkinoinnin alalta. Tutkielman empiriaosassa esitellään kohdeyritys ja sen tämän hetkinen asiakassuhteiden johtamiskäytäntö. Lisäksi tehdään parannusehdotuksia kohdeyrityksen nykyiseen asiakassuhteiden arvottamismenetelmään jotta asiakassuhteiden arvon laskeminen vastaisi mahdollisimman hyvin kohdeyrityksen nykyisiä tarpeita. Asiakassuhteen arvon määrittämiseksi käytetään myös fokusryhmähaastattelua. Avainasiakkaat määritellään ja tilannetta havainnollistetaan sijoittamalla avainasiakkaat asiakasportfolioon.

Performance benchmarking and incentive regulation – considerations of directing signals for electricity distribution companies

After the restructuring process of the power supply industry, which for instance in Finland took place in the mid-1990s, free competition was introduced for the production and sale of electricity. Nevertheless, natural monopolies are found to be the most efficient form of production in the transmission and distribution of electricity, and therefore such companies remained franchised monopolies. To prevent the misuse of the monopoly position and to guarantee the rights of the customers, regulation of these monopoly companies is required. One of the main objectives of the restructuring process has been to increase the cost efficiency of the industry. Simultaneously, demands for the service quality are increasing. Therefore, many regulatory frameworks are being, or have been, reshaped so that companies are provided with stronger incentives for efficiency and quality improvements. Performance benchmarking has in many cases a central role in the practical implementation of such incentive schemes. Economic regulation with performance benchmarking attached to it provides companies with directing signals that tend to affect their investment and maintenance strategies. Since the asset lifetimes in the electricity distribution are typically many decades, investment decisions have far-reaching technical and economic effects. This doctoral thesis addresses the directing signals of incentive regulation and performance benchmarking in the field of electricity distribution. The theory of efficiency measurement and the most common regulation models are presented. The chief contributions of this work are (1) a new kind of analysis of the regulatory framework, so that the actual directing signals of the regulation and benchmarking for the electricity distribution companies are evaluated, (2) developing the methodology and a software tool for analysing the directing signals of the regulation and benchmarking in the electricity distribution sector, and (3) analysing the real-life regulatory frameworks by the developed methodology and further develop regulation model from the viewpoint of the directing signals. The results of this study have played a key role in the development of the Finnish regulatory model.

Comparison of electricity generation costs

The economical competitiveness of various power plant alternatives is compared. The comparison comprises merely electricity producing power plants. Combined heat and power (CHP) producing power will cover part of the future power deficit in Finland, but also condensing power plants for base load production will be needed. The following types of power plants are studied: nuclear power plant, combined cycle gas turbine plant, coal-fired condensing power plant, peat-fired condensing power plant, wood-fired condensing power plant and wind power plant. The calculations are carried out by using the annuity method with a real interest rate of 5 % per annum and with a fixed price level as of January 2008. With the annual peak load utilization time of 8000 hours (corresponding to a load factor of 91,3 %) the production costs would be for nuclear electricity 35,0 €/MWh, for gas based electricity 59,2 €/MWh and for coal based electricity 64,4 €/MWh, when using a price of 23 €/tonCO2 for the carbon dioxide emission trading. Without emission trading the production cost of gas electricity is 51,2 €/MWh and that of coal electricity 45,7 €/MWh and nuclear remains the same (35,0 €/MWh) In order to study the impact of changes in the input data, a sensitivity analysis has been carried out. It reveals that the advantage of the nuclear power is quite clear. E.g. the nuclear electricity is rather insensitive to the changes of nuclear fuel price, whereas for natural gas alternative the rising trend of gas price causes the greatest risk. Furthermore, increase of emission trading price improves the competitiveness of the nuclear alternative. The competitiveness and payback of the nuclear power investment is studied also as such by using various electricity market prices for determining the revenues generated by the investment. The profitability of the investment is excellent, if the market price of electricity is 50 €/MWh or more.

Assessment of research competences using e-portfolio

The challenges posed by the assessment of distance learning is a topic that requires, on the one hand, evolution with new trends and, on the other improving evaluative processes, to promote good practices. This demand becomes more imperative when we are dealing with a formativescenario based on distance assessment of competence-based learning.The Open University of Catalonia has begun to work with these formative tools, promoting new practices for online education. A very clear example of these educational practices is the assessment of research competences using the e-portfolio system. To meet this aim a profound and solid process has been developed over recent years, with the intention of making this tool an assessment alternative, and providing the opportunity to use it in a formative context. The objective is to study its strengths and limitations keeping in mind the final goal of offering the higher education community a validated assessment system.

Creating a research network for a successful e-portfolio design and implementation

The presence of e-portfolios in educational centres, companies and administrations has emergedstrongly during the last years by creating very different practices coming from different objectives and purposes. This situation has led researchers and practitioners to design and implement e-portfolios with little reference to previous knowledge of them; consequently, developments are disparate with many of the processes and dimensions used both in development and use being unnecessary complex. In order to minimize the inconveniences, unify these developmental processes and improve the resultsof implementation and use of e-portfolios, it seemed necessary to create a network of researchers, teachers and trainers coming from different universities and institutions of different kinds who are interested in the investigation and the practice of e-portfolios in Spain. Therefore, The Network on e-portfoliowas created in 2006, funded by the Spanish Ministry of Education and led by the UniversitatOberta de Catalunya. Besides the goals associatedwith the creation of this network and which wewanted to share with other European researchers and experts of other continents, we will also present in this paper some data concerned with the first study carried out on the use of e-portfolios in our country that shows where we are and which trends are the most important for the near future.

The practical application of e-Portfolio at the Open University of Catalonia : assessment of competence based learning

The paper presents the results of the piloting or pilot test in a virtual classroom. This e-portfolio was carried out in the 2005-2006 academic year, with students of the Doctorate in Information Society, at the Open University of Catalonia. The electronic portfolio is a strategy for competence based assessment. This experience shows the types of e-portfolios, where students show their work without interactions, and apply the competence-based learning theories in an interactive portfolio system. The real process of learning is developed in the competency based system, the portfolio not only is a basic bio document, has become a real space for learning with competence model. The paper brings out new ideas and possibilities: the competence-based learning promotes closer relationships between universities and companies and redesigns the pedagogic act.

Analysis of outliers in electricity spot prices with exampleof New England and New Zealand markets

Electricity spot prices have always been a demanding data set for time series analysis, mostly because of the non-storability of electricity. This feature, making electric power unlike the other commodities, causes outstanding price spikes. Moreover, the last several years in financial world seem to show that ’spiky’ behaviour of time series is no longer an exception, but rather a regular phenomenon. The purpose of this paper is to seek patterns and relations within electricity price outliers and verify how they affect the overall statistics of the data. For the study techniques like classical Box-Jenkins approach, series DFT smoothing and GARCH models are used. The results obtained for two geographically different price series show that patterns in outliers’ occurrence are not straightforward. Additionally, there seems to be no rule that would predict the appearance of a spike from volatility, while the reverse effect is quite prominent. It is concluded that spikes cannot be predicted based only on the price series; probably some geographical and meteorological variables need to be included in modeling.

Mutual feedback in e-portfolio assessment : an approach to the netfolio system

Peer-reviewed

The role of alliance capabilities in alliance portfolio management

The question of why some firms perform better in managing their alliances has raised interest among scholars and managers. Whereas inter-firm factors influencing the alliance performance such as strategic fit between partners and the existence of complementarities have been studied extensively, research on firm-level antecedents is rather scarce. Therefore this study investigates the role of firm’s alliance capability in the alliance success equation. Particularly it analyses the specialized mechanisms and processes set up by firm in order to facilitate alliancerelated know-how leverage organization-wise. Evidence from a cross-industry sample of R&D intensive Finnish companies supports the fact that firms which have invested in institutionalizing alliance capabilities outperform their counterparts in alliance portfolio management. Results also suggest that firms need to adjust alliance management tools depending on the alliance portfolio size, prior experience with inter-firm partnerships and the strategic importance of alliances. Furthermore, absorptive capacity is found to be crucial for successful alliance management, its role being complementary to that of alliance capability. Finally, firms that have successful alliances also enjoy higher financial, market and innovation performance.