Housing markets and independence in old age: expanding the opportunities

This report highlights the benefits of specialised private retirement accommodation and recommends a number of simple policy changes at no cost to the public purse to help increase its supply and address the challenges of housing an ageing population.

The conditional performance of UK property funds

The evaluation of investment fund performance has been one of the main developments of modern portfolio theory. Most studies employ the technique developed by Jensen (1968) that compares a particular fund's returns to a benchmark portfolio of equal risk. However, the standard measures of fund manager performance are known to suffer from a number of problems in practice. In particular previous studies implicitly assume that the risk level of the portfolio is stationary through the evaluation period. That is unconditional measures of performance do not account for the fact that risk and expected returns may vary with the state of the economy. Therefore many of the problems encountered in previous performance studies reflect the inability of traditional measures to handle the dynamic behaviour of returns. As a consequence Ferson and Schadt (1996) suggest an approach to performance evaluation called conditional performance evaluation which is designed to address this problem. This paper utilises such a conditional measure of performance on a sample of 27 UK property funds, over the period 1987-1998. The results of which suggest that once the time varying nature of the funds beta is corrected for, by the addition of the market indicators, the average fund performance show an improvement over that of the traditional methods of analysis.

Comment on ``Conditional Exceedance Probabilities''

In a recent paper, Mason et al. propose a reliability test of ensemble forecasts for a continuous, scalar verification. As noted in the paper, the test relies on a very specific interpretation of ensembles, namely, that the ensemble members represent quantiles of some underlying distribution. This quantile interpretation is not the only interpretation of ensembles, another popular one being the Monte Carlo interpretation. Mason et al. suggest estimating the quantiles in this situation; however, this approach is fundamentally flawed. Errors in the quantile estimates are not independent of the exceedance events, and consequently the conditional exceedance probabilities (CEP) curves are not constant, which is a fundamental assumption of the test. The test would reject reliable forecasts with probability much higher than the test size.

Conditional transgenic expression of fibroblast growth factor 9 in the adult mouse heart reduces heart failure mortality after myocardial infarction

BACKGROUND: Fibroblast growth factor 9 (FGF9) is secreted from bone marrow cells, which have been shown to improve systolic function after myocardial infarction (MI) in a clinical trial. FGF9 promotes cardiac vascularization during embryonic development but is only weakly expressed in the adult heart. METHODS AND RESULTS: We used a tetracycline-responsive binary transgene system based on the α-myosin heavy chain promoter to test whether conditional expression of FGF9 in the adult myocardium supports adaptation after MI. In sham-operated mice, transgenic FGF9 stimulated left ventricular hypertrophy with microvessel expansion and preserved systolic and diastolic function. After coronary artery ligation, transgenic FGF9 enhanced hypertrophy of the noninfarcted left ventricular myocardium with increased microvessel density, reduced interstitial fibrosis, attenuated fetal gene expression, and improved systolic function. Heart failure mortality after MI was markedly reduced by transgenic FGF9, whereas rupture rates were not affected. Adenoviral FGF9 gene transfer after MI similarly promoted left ventricular hypertrophy with improved systolic function and reduced heart failure mortality. Mechanistically, FGF9 stimulated proliferation and network formation of endothelial cells but induced no direct hypertrophic effects in neonatal or adult rat cardiomyocytes in vitro. FGF9-stimulated endothelial cell supernatants, however, induced cardiomyocyte hypertrophy via paracrine release of bone morphogenetic protein 6. In accord with this observation, expression of bone morphogenetic protein 6 and phosphorylation of its downstream targets SMAD1/5 were increased in the myocardium of FGF9 transgenic mice. CONCLUSIONS: Conditional expression of FGF9 promotes myocardial vascularization and hypertrophy with enhanced systolic function and reduced heart failure mortality after MI. These observations suggest a previously unrecognized therapeutic potential for FGF9 after MI.

Macro-economic and financial determinants of comovement across global real estate security markets

This paper models the determinants of integration in the context of global real estate security markets. Using both local and U.S. Dollar denominated returns, we model conditional correlations across listed real estate sectors and also with the global stock market. The empirical results find that financial factors, such as the relationship with the respective equity market, volatility, the relative size of the real estate sector and trading turnover all play an important role in the degree of integration present. Furthermore, the results highlight the importance of macro-economic variables in the degree of integration present. All four of the macro-economic variables modeled provide at least one significant result across the specifications estimated. Factors such as financial and trade openness, monetary independence and the stability of a country’s currency all contribute to the degree of integration reported.

Conditional mean functions of non-linear models of US output

We compare a number of models of post War US output growth in terms of the degree and pattern of non-linearity they impart to the conditional mean, where we condition on either the previous period's growth rate, or the previous two periods' growth rates. The conditional means are estimated non-parametrically using a nearest-neighbour technique on data simulated from the models. In this way, we condense the complex, dynamic, responses that may be present in to graphical displays of the implied conditional mean.

Forecasting exchange rate volatility using conditional variance models selected by information criteria

This paper uses appropriately modified information criteria to select models from the GARCH family, which are subsequently used for predicting US dollar exchange rate return volatility. The out of sample forecast accuracy of models chosen in this manner compares favourably on mean absolute error grounds, although less favourably on mean squared error grounds, with those generated by the commonly used GARCH(1, 1) model. An examination of the orders of models selected by the criteria reveals that (1, 1) models are typically selected less than 20% of the time.

Independence referendums: who should vote and who should be offered citizenship?

In this EUDO CITIZENSHIP Forum Debate, several authors consider the interrelations between eligibility criteria for participation in independence referendum (that may result in the creation of a new independent state) and the determination of putative citizenship ab initio (on day one) of such a state. The kick-off contribution argues for resemblance of an independence referendum franchise and of the initial determination of the citizenry, critically appraising the incongruence between the franchise for the 18 September 2014 Scottish independence referendum, and the blueprint for Scottish citizenship ab initio put forward by the Scottish Government in its 'Scotland's Future' White Paper. Contributors to this debate come from divergent disciplines (law, political science, sociology, philosophy). They reflect on and contest the above claims, both generally and in relation to regional settings including (in addition to Scotland) Catalonia/Spain, Flanders/Belgium, Quebec/Canada, Post-Yugoslavia and Puerto-Rico/USA.

The notions of 'restriction' and 'discrimination' in the context of the free movement of persons provisions: from a relationship of interdependence to one of (almost complete) independence

This article aims to analyse how the meaning of the notions of ‘restrictions’ and ‘discrimination’ in EU free movement law has developed through the years, and to explore how the relationship between them has evolved. It is explained that the two concepts under examination had originally been closely intertwined, in the sense that one defined the other, the element holding them together being the aim of the relevant provisions to liberalise the inter-State movement of persons in the EU, as part of the process of establishing an internal market. Yet, more recently, the way that the Court has chosen to delimit their scope, illustrates that each of these notions can now have a life of its own, meaning that ‘discrimination’ can include discriminatory measures which do not lead to restrictions that are contrary to the free movement provisions, and ‘restriction’ can cover national measures that are not discriminatory.

Conditional male dimorphism and alternative reproductive tactics in a Neotropical arachnid (Opiliones)

In arthropods, most cases of morphological dimorphism within males are the result of a conditional evolutionarily stable strategy (ESS) with status-dependent tactics. In conditionally male-dimorphic species, the status` distributions of male morphs often overlap, and the environmentally cued threshold model (ET) states that the degree of overlap depends on the genetic variation in the distribution of the switchpoints that determine which morph is expressed in each value of status. Here we describe male dimorphism and alternative mating behaviors in the harvestman Serracutisoma proximum. Majors express elongated second legs and use them in territorial fights; minors possess short second legs and do not fight, but rather sneak into majors` territories and copulate with egg-guarding females. The static allometry of second legs reveals that major phenotype expression depends on body size (status), and that the switchpoint underlying the dimorphism presents a large amount of genetic variation in the population, which probably results from weak selective pressure on this trait. With a mark-recapture study, we show that major phenotype expression does not result in survival costs, which is consistent with our hypothesis that there is weak selection on the switchpoint. Finally, we demonstrate that switchpoint is independent of status distribution. In conclusion, our data support the ET model prediction that the genetic correlation between status and switchpoint is low, allowing the status distribution to evolve or to fluctuate seasonally, without any effect on the position of the mean switchpoint.

Are central bank independence reforms necessary for achieving low and stable inflation?

Using data on the occurence of central bank independence (CBI) reforms in 131 countries during 1980-2005, we test whether they were important in reducing inflation and maintaining price stability. CBI reforms are found to have reduced inflation on average 3.31% when countries with historically high inflation rates are included. But countries with lower inflation have reduced it without institutional reforms granting central banks more independence, undermining the theoretical time-inconsistency case for CBI. There is furthermore no evidence that CBI reforms have helped reduce inflation variability.

Determinants and effects of central bank independence reforms

This thesis consists of four empirically oriented papers on central bank independence (CBI) reforms.    Paper [1] is an investigation of why politicians around the world have chosen to give up power to independent central banks, thereby reducing their ability to control the economy. A new data-set, including the possible occurrence of CBI-reforms in 132 countries during 1980-2005, was collected. Politicians in non-OECD countries were more likely to delegate power to independent central banks if their country had been characterized by high variability in inflation and if they faced a high probability of being replaced. No such effects were found for OECD countries.    Paper [2], using a difference-in-difference approach, studies whether CBI reform matters for inflation performance. The analysis is based on a dataset including the possible occurrence of CBI-reforms in 132 countries during the period of 1980-2005. CBI reform is found to have contributed to bringing down inflation in high-inflation countries, but it seems unrelated to inflation performance in low-inflation countries.    Paper [3] investigates whether CBI-reforms are important in reducing inflation and maintaining price stability, using a random-effects random-coefficients model to account for heterogeneity in the effects of CBI-reforms on inflation. CBI-reforms are found to have reduced inflation on average by 3.31 percent, but the effect is only present when countries with historically high inflation rates are included in the sample. Countries with more modest inflation rates have achieved low inflation without institutional reforms that grant central banks more independence, thus undermining the time-inconsistency theory case for CBI. There is furthermore no evidence that CBI-reforms have contributed to lower inflation variability    Paper [4] studies the relationship between CBI and a suggested trade-off between price variability and output variability using data on CBI-levels, and data the on implementation dates of CBI-reforms. The results question the existence of such a trade-off, but indicate that there may still be potential gains in stabilization policy from CBI-reforms.