农地承载力影响因素及拓展途径分析

在分析农地承载力内涵的基础上,指出农地资源承载力的影响因素众多,概括为自然环境因素和社会经济因素;农地承载力是动态变化的,改变农地所处的条件和影响因素可以拓展其承载力;从系统耦合,开放条件,农地制度,农地结构方面探讨农地承载力的拓展途径。

系统耦合对农地承载力的拓展分析

农地的特性决定了其系统具有耦合性,农地系统耦合的意义在于其对农地承载力产生重要影响.农地系统承载力是一个合力,其大小取决于各子系统承载力的"大小"和"方向",系统耦合正是通过调整分力的"大小"和"方向",实现农地承载力的拓展.系统耦合对农地承载力拓展的途径有:增强种间耦合,调整土地利用结构和农林牧渔复合经营等.

岷江上游地区景观格局与生态承载力变化及预测研究

岷江上游是我国十分典型的山地生态脆弱区。该地区的生态环境意义十分重大，既是长江上游生态屏障的重要组成部分，更是成都平原的重要生态屏障和水源生命线，其生态环境状况直接影响成都平原水资源的质量和数量，以至影响到整个岷江流域甚至整个长江上游的生态环境与社会经济发展。本论文通过3S技术手段，应用转移矩阵、景观指数和Kappa指数系列方法对岷江上游的景观变化从1974到2000年进行了综合分析，同时应用CLUE-S模型在有无“天然林保护工程”两个预案下对该区域2001到2020年的景观变化进行了预测。然后，应用基于能值理论进行改进的生态足迹方法和传统生态足迹方法对岷江上游地区的1982到2000的生态承载力进行了分析，以反映研究区的生态环境质量和可持续发展情况；应用多元统计方法和CLUE-S模型预测的结果预测了研究区2001到2020年的生态足迹和生态承载力。对岷江上游地区的景观格局和生态承载力的变化进行分析和预测得到如下主要结论： 1. 岷江上游地区景观在1974到2000年间格局变化并不十分显著，景观由少数几种景观类型所控制，各景观类型有不断趋于平均化的趋势，但速度缓慢，景观的破碎化程度越来越严重。研究区的景观变化以有林地的不断减少和其它景观类型的相应增加为特点，主要的景观变化发生在有林地、灌木林地、草地、耕地和经济林地之间。此时间段内的景观林地的面积不断减少，大部分转化为灌木林地和草地，使得其面积相应增加。耕地和经济林地面积不断增长，增长速度最为迅速。 2. 在有无“天然林保护工程”两种预案下，有林地向着不同的方向发展，有林地变化情况的不同导致其它景观类型的变化不同。在“无天保”预案下，林地面积不断减少，灌木林地、草地和耕地面积不断增长，景观的破碎化程度不断加剧，斑块形状更加不规划，景观的连通性不断下降。在“天保”预案下，林地面积有增长趋势，灌木林地和草地面积有所下降，耕地面积有下降趋势，景观的破碎化程度有减小的趋势，景观形状变得更加规则，景观的连通性也将得到改善。由此，“天然林保护工程”对景观格局未来变化有着决定性的作用。 3. 岷江上游地区的生态足迹从1982到2000年间呈缓慢的上升趋势，表明研究区内居民的生活水平不断提高，但速度缓慢。虽然研究区在研究时期内的生态承载力大于需求，但生态承载力呈明显的下降趋势，造成这种情况的主要原因是由于资源的不合理利用方式造成的，特别是对森林的过度采伐。连续的木材采伐给岷江上游地区脆弱的生态系统带来严重后果，导致了林地面积减小、森林质量下降、水土流失加剧和泥石流频繁发生。 4. 对于生态足迹和生态承载力在两个预案的预测表明到2020年为止岷江上游地区仍为可持续发展状态。在“无天保”预案下，生态承载力不断下降，生活足迹不断上升，研究区向不可持续的方向发展；在“天保”预案下，生态承载力在2003年后开始逐渐上升，同时，由于木材采伐被禁止，导致岷江上游地区的生态足迹大为下降，研究区将向更加可持续的方向发展。由两种预案的结果对比可以发现1998年开始实施的“天然林保护工程”能够扭转岷江上游地区未来的生态承载力变化方向。生态承载力可以反映生态系统的质量，说明该政策的实施可以有效改善岷江上游地区未来的生态系统。 5. 传统生态足迹方法应用的生物生产能力数据为常量，所以它能够有效地比较不同年份和不同区域间消费数据的变化情况。实际土地需求法应用的生物生产能力和均衡因子均根据研究区实际数据计算得到，其反映研究区的实际情况更为有效。应用能值对生态足迹方法进行改进，改变了传统生态足迹以生物圈为限制的不足。本文改进的方法－区域能值足迹法能够有效地反映研究区的实际情况，同时又能够将科技进步所带来的影响加以考虑。

陕北黄土高原农牧交错带土地生产潜力及人口承载力

根据陕北黄土高原农牧交错带生态环境特点以及作物生长发育过程对光、热、水、土资源的要求和利用效率,运用逐步订正法对该地区的土地生产潜力进行了定量估算,并对其土地的人口承载力进行了计算与分析,指出了提高该地区土地生产潜力及人口承载力的途径。结果表明,该地区光温生产潜力为光合生产潜力的65.21%,气候生产潜力为光温生产潜力的37.91%,土壤生产潜力为气候生产潜力的32.19%,现实生产能力仅为土壤生产潜力的42.47%;在现实生产能力水平下,人民生活仅能维持我国低消费水平,如果要实现世界中等消费水平,必须使土地的现实生产能力达到土壤生产潜力的89.40%,气候生产潜力的27.00%。提高该地区土地生产潜力及人口承载力的途径包括提高植被覆盖度,控制土地荒漠化;发展设施农业和灌溉农业,提高作物产量;改进施肥方法,培肥地力;因地制宜,开发滩区等。

滤食性贝类养殖活动对海域生态系统的影响及生态容量评估

滤食性贝类以水体中的浮游植物和有机碎屑为主要食物，养殖海域的初级生产力水平、水动力学特性等生态环境因子的差异，不仅直接影响养殖贝类的产量，而且也与贝类养殖活动对生态环境的压力密切相关。由于养殖的种类、密度、方式及养殖海域的特性不同，关于贝类对生态环境的影响往往有不同的结果。本文以我国北方大连獐子岛扇贝底播海区和荣成桑沟湾贝类筏式养殖区为研究对象，采用现场调查、室内受控实验及生态数值模型模拟方法，分析研究了滤食性贝类对海域生态系统的影响，对这两个海域贝类养殖的生态容量进行了初步的评价。 主要结果： 1. 獐子岛海域底播贝类养殖活动对该海域生态系统的影响较小。非参数统计—符号检验的结果显示，养殖区与非养殖区之间的溶解性无机氮、磷酸盐浓度、氮磷摩尔比及浮游植物群落结构没有统计学上的差异（p>0.05）。但是从变化的趋势上来看，贝类养殖活动对水域环境的某些参数有一定程度的影响。例如，獐子岛底播贝类养殖海域的溶解性无机氮以氨氮为主，可能与贝类的代泄活动有关；不论是叶绿素浓度，还是网采浮游植物的生物量都是贝类高密度养殖区<贝类低密度养殖区<非养殖区（7月份除外），这种趋势可能与贝类的摄食压力有关。 桑沟湾各环境指标表现出明显的区域性。除春季外，非养殖区的DIN浓度高于各养殖区。在春季和冬季，贝类区的磷酸盐浓度显著降低；而硅酸盐浓度在夏季和秋季显著增大。综合分析DIN、PO4-P及SiO3-Si三个参数的四季变化，海带区、贝藻区及贝类区发生显著性变异的概率分别为25%，42%和50%，贝类区的变异较大。浮游植物、小型浮游动物的生物多样性指数都是以非养殖区为最高，贝类区的多样性指数最低。尤其是浮游动物的丰度，贝类区显著低于非养殖区。 2. 利用挪威的MOM (Modelling-Ongrowing fish farms-Monitoring)评价系统，评价了桑沟湾长期大规模的贝藻筏式养殖活动对底质环境的压力。在桑沟湾设10个取样站位，共获得66个底泥样品。比较了MOM－B评价系统的3组参数的季节变化特性。结果显示，底质条件属于1级，说明桑沟湾贝藻长期大规模的养殖活动对底质环境的压力较低。结合桑沟湾的环境及养殖特点，分析了压力较低的原因。 3. 经计算，2006年中国海水养殖的贝类和藻类使用浅海生态系统的碳可达396万吨，并通过收获从海中移出至少136.9万吨的碳。从1995年至2006年，养殖大型藻类和贝类累计移出的碳分别约为365万吨和893万吨，总计达1258万吨。证明了浅海的贝类和藻类养殖活动直接或间接地使用了大量的海洋碳，提高了浅海生态系统吸收大气CO2的能力。 4. 采用模拟现场生物沉积法测定了虾夷扇贝的滤水率、摄食率等生理指标及其与贝类个体大小、水温的关系。虾夷扇贝单位个体的滤水率与组织干重的关系符合幂函数方程CR=a×DWb，b值在0.45～0.65范围内；水温对虾夷扇贝滤水率的影响极其显著(p<0.01)，温度（T）与滤水率（CR）呈抛物线的关系：CR=-0.0009T2+0.0188T-0.0306，水温为10℃时，虾夷扇贝的滤水率、摄食较大。 5. 采用模拟现场流水法测定了3种滤食性贝类的食物选择性。紫贻贝、长牡蛎及栉孔扇贝分别对直径4m, 6m 和 8m颗粒的保留效率达到最大值；对小颗粒（直径2m）的保留效率分别为17%, 19% 和 8％。栉孔扇贝对食物数量和质量浓度的变化相对敏感，随着数量浓度的增加，栉孔扇贝倾向于摄食较大的颗粒；随着颗粒食物质量浓度的增加，倾向于摄食较小的颗粒。 6. 獐子岛海域四个航次的调查结果显示，叶绿素浓度在1.23～2.85mg.m-3范围内，均值为1.78±0.57 mg.m-3；初级生产力的变化范围为30.4～117.0 mg C. m-2.d-1，平均值为76.6±41.9 mg C. m-2.d-1。通过虾夷扇贝生物量断面调查，获得了虾夷扇贝的壳高频率分布情况，7月份的众数值出现在100 mm，10月份壳高的众数值为80 mm。利用以上测定的虾夷扇贝的滤水率等基本生物学特性，结合虾夷扇贝的年产量、海域面积和有关的水文状况等数据，计算了滤水效率、摄食压力、调节比率3个食物限制性指标参数，全年的均值分别为0.048, 0.31和 0.16，都小于1，说明目前该海域虾夷扇贝的养殖量未达到养殖容量。 7. 利用STELLA软件，建立的桑沟湾贝藻养殖的数值模型，模拟了叶绿素a浓度及氮磷营养盐的周年变化情况，及其对贝类养殖生物量变化的响应。以叶绿素a浓度为指标，初步探讨了桑沟湾贝类的生态容量。

Seasonal variation in metabolism of cultured Pacific oyster, Crassostrea gigas, in Sanggou Bay, China

Rates of respiration and excretion of the Pacific oyster, Crassostrea gigas, were measured seasonally from June 2002 to July 2003 under ambient conditions of food, water temperature, pH, and salinity in Sanggou Bay, an important mariculture coast in north China. The aim of this study is to obtain fundamental data for further establishing an energy budget model and assessing the carrying capacity for cultivation of C. gigas in north China. Oysters were collected monthly or bimonthly from the integrated culture areas of bivalve and kelp in the bay. Oxygen consumption and ammonium and phosphorus excretion rates were measured, and ratios of O/N and NIP were calculated. One-way ANOVA was applied to determine differences among these parameters that act as a function of seasonal variation. All the physiological parameters yielded highly significant variations with season (P<0.01) The rate of respiration varied seasonally, with the highest oxygen consumption rate in July and the lowest rate in January, ranging from 0.07 to 2.13 mg O-2 h(-1) g(-1) dry tissue weight (DW). Maximum and minimum ammonium excretion rates were recorded in August and January, respectively, ranging from 0.51 to 5.40 mu mol NH4-N h(-1) g(-1) DW. Rates of phosphorus excretion varied from 0.11 (in January) to 0.64 (in July) mu mol PO4-P h(-1) g(-1) DW. The O/N and N/P ratios changed from 9.2 (in January) to 59.8 (in July) and from 4.6 (in January) to 10.9 (in August), respectively. For each season, the allometric relationship between the physiological response (e.g., rate of oxygen consumption, ammonium and phosphorus excretion) and DW of the animal was estimated using the formula: Y=a x DWb. (C) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Status and dynamics of Kobresia pygmaea ecosystem on the Tibetan plateau

This paper provides information about the distribution, structure, and ecology of the world's largest alpine ecosystem, the Kobresia pygmaea pastures in the southeastern Tibetan plateau. The environmental importance of these Cyperaceae mats derives from the extremely firm turf, which protects large surfaces against erosion, including the headwaters of the Huang He, Yangtze, Mekong, Salween, and Brahmaputra. The emphasis of the present article is on the climate-driven evolution and recent dynamics of these mats under the grazing impact of small mammals and livestock. Considering pedological analyses, radiocarbon datings, and results from exclosure experiments, we hypothesize that the majority of K. pygmaea mats are human-induced and replace forests, scrub, and taller grasslands. At present, the carrying capacity is increasingly exceeded, and reinforced settlement of nomads threatens this ecosystem especially in its drier part, where small mammals become strong competitors with livestock and the removal of the turf is irreversible. Examples of rehabilitation measures are given.

并联机器人研究现状

并联机器人是一类全新的机器人，它具有刚度大、承载能力强、误差小、精度高、自重负荷比小、动力性能好、控制容易等一系列优点，因而扩大了整个机器人的应用领域。本文综述了并联机器人的研究现状：包括并联机器人的特点，运动学建模，动力学建模，应用状况等。

天津滨海新区软土不同含砂量的强度特征研究

Based on the features of soft soil in Tianjing Coastal New Developing Area, this kind of soil with different content of sand was researched systematically, according to the indoor experiment, about its characteristics of strength and deformation. The main results are summarized in the following: Firstly, on the basis of geological engineering investigation, the systemic experiments about the physical characteristics were conducted. The test soil samples were taken from the gray and gray-yellow silty soft soil which was formatted by near-shore marine sediment and marine-continental interactive sediment. The original condition of the sample soil was in saturation and the basic indexes are: liquid limit36.1%, plastic limit 18.8%, plasticity index. Then, the condensation characteristics of the soft soil were analyzed through high-pressure consolidation tests. The results show that，in various loading serials, the coefficient of compressibility under P=100kPa and 200kPa are all larger than 0.5MPa-1. So the sample soil is a kind of high-compressibility soil. Secondly, triaxial strength of undisturbed soil and remoulded soil was researched by using triaxial test. The types of stress-strain curve of both undisturbed and remoulded soil are the stress stabilization and softening type, which show the specific plastic character. Furthermore, the cohesion and friction angle of undisturbed soil changes, when the ambient pressure is different, instead of a stable value for all time; the cohesion and friction angle of remoulded soil changes with the compactness and sand-carrying capacity which is wholly higher than undisturbed soil. At last, the stress-strain results of both undisturbed and remoulded soil were normalized by using the ambient pressure as the normalization factor. The results show that, there are all some normalization characters in both undisturbed and remoulded soil, however, the feature of normalization of undisturbed soil is worse than the remoulded ones. The main reason is that the undisturbed samples are worse in equality and the unavoidable disturb through the process of sampling and experiments will also make them can not put up good normalization. Therefore, it is feasible to normalize the soil in Tianjing Coastal New Developing Area with the ambient pressure as normalization factor.

Multiple-User Quantum Optical Communication

A fundamental understanding of the information carrying capacity of optical channels requires the signal and physical channel to be modeled quantum mechanically. This thesis considers the problems of distributing multi-party quantum entanglement to distant users in a quantum communication system and determining the ability of quantum optical channels to reliably transmit information. A recent proposal for a quantum communication architecture that realizes long-distance, high-fidelity qubit teleportation is reviewed. Previous work on this communication architecture is extended in two primary ways. First, models are developed for assessing the effects of amplitude, phase, and frequency errors in the entanglement source of polarization-entangled photons, as well as fiber loss and imperfect polarization restoration, on the throughput and fidelity of the system. Second, an error model is derived for an extension of this communication architecture that allows for the production and storage of three-party entangled Greenberger-Horne-Zeilinger states. A performance analysis of the quantum communication architecture in qubit teleportation and quantum secret sharing communication protocols is presented. Recent work on determining the channel capacity of optical channels is extended in several ways. Classical capacity is derived for a class of Gaussian Bosonic channels representing the quantum version of classical colored Gaussian-noise channels. The proof is strongly mo- tivated by the standard technique of whitening Gaussian noise used in classical information theory. Minimum output entropy problems related to these channel capacity derivations are also studied. These single-user Bosonic capacity results are extended to a multi-user scenario by deriving capacity regions for single-mode and wideband coherent-state multiple access channels. An even larger capacity region is obtained when the transmitters use non- classical Gaussian states, and an outer bound on the ultimate capacity region is presented

Tree species-area and species-diameter relationships at three lowland rain forest sites in Sumatra

Data from three forest sites in Sumatra (Batang Ule, Pasirmayang and Tebopandak) have been analysed and compared for the effects of sample area cut-off, and tree diameter cut-off. An 'extended inverted exponential model' is shown to be well suited to fitting tree-species-area curves. The model yields species carrying capacities of 680 for Batang Ule, 380 species for Pasirmayang, and 35 for Tebopandak (tree diameter >10cm). It would seem that in terms of species carrying capacity, Tebopandak and Pasirmayang are rather similar, and both less diverse than the hilly Batang Ule site. In terms of conservation policy, this would mean that rather more emphasis should be put on conserving hilly sites on a granite substratum. For Pasirmayang with tree diameter >3cm, the asymptotic species number estimate is 567, considerably higher than the estimate of 387 species for trees with diameter >10cm. It is clear that the diameter cut-off has a major impact on the estimate of the species carrying capacity. A conservative estimate of the total number of tree species in the Pasirmayang region is 632 species! In sampling exercises, the diameter cut-off should not be chosen lightly, and it may be worth adopting field sampling procedures which involve some subsampling of the primary sample area, where the diameter cut-off is set much lower than in the primary plots.

Causes and prediction of abrupt climate-driven ecosystem shifts in the North Atlantic

Warming of the global climate is now unequivocal and its impact on Earth’ functional units has become more apparent. Here, we show that marine ecosystems are not equally sensitive to climate change and reveal a critical thermal boundary where a small increase in temperature triggers abrupt ecosystem shifts seen across multiple trophic levels. This large-scale boundary is located in regions where abrupt ecosystem shifts have been reported in the North Atlantic sector and thereby allows us to link these shifts by a global common phenomenon. We show that these changes alter the biodiversity and carrying capacity of ecosystems and may, combined with fishing, precipitate the reduction of some stocks of Atlantic cod already severely impacted by exploitation. These findings offer a way to anticipate major ecosystem changes and to propose adaptive strategies for marine exploited resources such as cod in order to minimize social and economic consequences.

Climate, plankton and cod

While a few North Atlantic cod stocks are stable, none have increased and many have declined in recent years. Although overfishing is the main cause of most observed declines, this study shows that in some regions, climate by its influence on plankton may exert a strong control on cod stocks, complicating the management of this species that often assumes a constant carrying capacity. First, we investigate the likely drivers of changes in the cod stock in the North Sea by evaluating the potential relationships between climate, plankton and cod. We do this by deriving a Plankton Index that reflects the quality and quantity of plankton food available for larval cod. We show that this Plankton Index explains 46.24% of the total variance in cod recruitment and 68.89% of the variance in total cod biomass. Because the effects of climate act predominantly through plankton during the larval stage of cod development, our results indicate a pronounced sensitivity of cod stocks to climate at the warmer, southern edge of their distribution, for example in the North Sea. Our analyses also reveal for the first time, that at a large basin scale, the abundance of Calanus finmarchicus is associated with a high probability of cod occurrence, whereas the genus Pseudocalanus appears less important. Ecosystem-based fisheries management (EBFM) generally considers the effect of fishing on the ecosystem and not the effect of climate-induced changes in the ecosystem state for the living resources. These results suggest that EBFM must consider the position of a stock within its ecological niche, the direct effects of climate and the influence of climate on the trophodynamics of the ecosystem.

Effects of environmental conditions on the seasonal distribution of phytoplankton biomass in the North Sea

We study the spatial and seasonal variability of phytoplankton biomass (as phytoplankton color) in relation to the environmental conditions in the North Sea using data from the Continuous Plankton Recorder survey. By using only environmental fields and location as predictor variables we developed a nonparametric model (generalized additive model) to empirically explore how key environmental factors modulate the spatio-temporal patterns of the seasonal cycle of algal biomass as well as how these relate to the ,1988 North Sea regime shift. Solar radiation, as manifest through changes of sea surface temperature (SST), was a key factor not only in the seasonal cycle but also as a driver of the shift. The pronounced increase in SST and in wind speed after the 1980s resulted in an extension of the season favorable for phytoplankton growth. Nutrients appeared to be unimportant as explanatory variables for the observed spatio-temporal pattern, implying that they were not generally limiting factors. Under the new climatic regime the carrying capacity of the whole system has been increased and the southern North Sea, where the environmental changes have been more pronounced, reached a new maximum.

Probabilistic Models to Describe the Dynamics of Migrating Microbial Communities

In all but the most sterile environments bacteria will reside in fluid being transported through conduits and some of these will attach and grow as biofilms on the conduit walls. The concentration and diversity of bacteria in the fluid at the point of delivery will be a mix of those when it entered the conduit and those that have become entrained into the flow due to seeding from biofilms. Examples include fluids through conduits such as drinking water pipe networks, endotracheal tubes, catheters and ventilation systems. Here we present two probabilistic models to describe changes in the composition of bulk fluid microbial communities as they are transported through a conduit whilst exposed to biofilm communities. The first (discrete) model simulates absolute numbers of individual cells, whereas the other (continuous) model simulates the relative abundance of taxa in the bulk fluid. The discrete model is founded on a birth-death process whereby the community changes one individual at a time and the numbers of cells in the system can vary. The continuous model is a stochastic differential equation derived from the discrete model and can also accommodate changes in the carrying capacity of the bulk fluid. These models provide a novel Lagrangian framework to investigate and predict the dynamics of migrating microbial communities. In this paper we compare the two models, discuss their merits, possible applications and present simulation results in the context of drinking water distribution systems. Our results provide novel insight into the effects of stochastic dynamics on the composition of non-stationary microbial communities that are exposed to biofilms and provides a new avenue for modelling microbial dynamics in systems where fluids are being transported.