Key change: The role of the creative industries in climate change action

The role of the creative industries – arts and artists – in helping to drive the changes in laws and behaviours that are necessary to tackle climate change, while not superficially obvious, is a deep one. Arts and artists of all kinds, as cultural practitioners, have been closely entwined with social change and social control since time immemorial, in large part because they help shape our understanding of the world, framing ideas, prefiguring change, and opening hearts and minds to new ways of thinking. They have played a major role in campaigns for law reform on many issues, and climate change should be no exception. Indeed, with climate change increasingly being seen as a deeply cultural issue, and its solutions as cultural ones to do with changing the way we understand our world and our place in it, the role of cultural practitioners in helping to address it should also increasingly be seen as central. It is curious, then, how comparatively little artistic engagement with climate change has taken place, how little engagement with the arts the climate movement has attempted, and how little theoretical and critical analysis has been undertaken on the role of the creative arts in climate change action. Through a literature review and a series of interviews with individuals working in relevant fields in Australia, this study examines and evaluates the role of the creative industries in climate change action and places it in a historical and theoretical context. It covers examples of the kind of artistic and activist collaborations that have been undertaken, the different roles in communication, campaigning for law reform, and deep culture change that arts and artists can play, and the risks and dangers inherent in the involvement of artists, both to climate change action and to the artist. It concludes that, despite the risks, a deeper and more thoughtful engagement of and by the creative industries in climate action would not only be useful but is perhaps vital to the success of the endeavours.

Vulnerability of coastal ecosystems to changes in harmful algal bloom distribution in response to climate change: projections based on model analysis

Harmful algal blooms (HABs), those proliferations of algae that can cause fish kills, contaminate seafood with toxins, form unsightly scums, or detrimentally alter ecosystem function have been increasing in frequency, magnitude, and duration worldwide. Here, using a global modeling approach, we show, for three regions of the globe, the potential effects of nutrient loading and climate change for two HAB genera, pelagic Prorocentrum and Karenia, each with differing physiological characteristics for growth. The projections (end of century, 2090-2100) are based on climate change resulting from the A1B scenario of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Institut Pierre Simon Laplace Climate Model (IPCC, IPSL-CM4), applied in a coupled oceanographic-biogeochemical model, combined with a suite of assumed physiological 'rules' for genera-specific bloom development. Based on these models, an expansion in area and/or number of months annually conducive to development of these HABs along the NW European Shelf-Baltic Sea system and NE Asia was projected for both HAB genera, but no expansion (Prorocentrum spp.), or actual contraction in area and months conducive for blooms (Karenia spp.), was projected in the SE Asian domain. The implications of these projections, especially for Northern Europe, are shifts in vulnerability of coastal systems to HAB events, increased regional HAB impacts to aquaculture, increased risks to human health and ecosystems, and economic consequences of these events due to losses to fisheries and ecosystem services.

Insects, weather and climate

Applications of atmospheric science are relevant to a range of themes within science and society; application to entomology was the main focus of this meeting organised by Dr Curtis Wood (University of Reading). This meeting was held jointly with the Royal Entomological Society. The talks were designed to appeal to the broader scientific community by showcasing topics near the join of the two disciplines. The audience heard about exciting topics within weather and climate change, how they are applied to entomological science and how insects can be used to advance atmospheric science. The meeting included the 2009 Margary Lecture given by Prof. Philip Mellor from the Institute for Animal Health (IAH) at Pirbright.

Transport impacts on atmosphere and climate: shipping

Emissions of exhaust gases and particles from oceangoing ships are a significant and growing contributor to the total emissions from the transportation sector. We present an assessment of the contribution of gaseous and particulate emissions from oceangoing shipping to anthropogenic emissions and air quality. We also assess the degradation in human health and climate change created by these emissions. Regulating ship emissions requires comprehensive knowledge of current fuel consumption and emissions, understanding of their impact on atmospheric composition and climate, and projections of potential future evolutions and mitigation options. Nearly 70% of ship emissions occur within 400 km of coastlines, causing air quality problems through the formation of ground-level ozone, sulphur emissions and particulate matter in coastal areas and harbours with heavy traffic. Furthermore, ozone and aerosol precursor emissions as well as their derivative species from ships may be transported in the atmosphere over several hundreds of kilometres, and thus contribute to air quality problems further inland, even though they are emitted at sea. In addition, ship emissions impact climate. Recent studies indicate that the cooling due to altered clouds far outweighs the warming effects from greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide (CO2) or ozone from shipping, overall causing a negative present-day radiative forcing (RF). Current efforts to reduce sulphur and other pollutants from shipping may modify this. However, given the short residence time of sulphate compared to CO2, the climate response from sulphate is of the order decades while that of CO2 is centuries. The climatic trade-off between positive and negative radiative forcing is still a topic of scientific research, but from what is currently known, a simple cancellation of global mean forcing components is potentially inappropriate and a more comprehensive assessment metric is required. The CO2 equivalent emissions using the global temperature change potential (GTP) metric indicate that after 50 years the net global mean effect of current emissions is close to zero through cancellation of warming by CO2 and cooling by sulphate and nitrogen oxides.

The climate change–infectious disease nexus: is it time for climate change syndemics?

Conceptualizing climate as a distinct variable limits our understanding of the synergies and interactions between climate change and the range of abiotic and biotic factors, which influence animal health. Frameworks such as eco-epidemiology and the epi-systems approach, while more holistic, view climate and climate change as one of many discreet drivers of disease. Here, I argue for a new paradigmatic framework: climate-change syndemics. Climate-change syndemics begins from the assumption that climate change is one of many potential influences on infectious disease processes, but crucially is unlikely to act independently or in isolation; and as such, it is the inter-relationship between factors that take primacy in explorations of infectious disease and climate change. Equally importantly, as climate change will impact a wide range of diseases, the frame of analysis is at the collective rather than individual level (for both human and animal infectious disease) across populations.

The impact of climate change on the macroeconomy in the Caribbean

In this study, an attempt is made to assess the economic impact of climate change on nine countries in the Caribbean basin: Aruba, Barbados, Dominican Republic, Guyana, Jamaica, Montserrat, Netherlands Antilles, Saint Lucia and Trinidad and Tobago. A methodological approach proposed by Dell et al. (2008) is used in preference to the traditional Integrated Assessment Models. The evolution of climate variables and of the macroeconomy of each of the nine countries over the period 1970 to 2006 is analyzed and preliminary evidence of a relationship between the macroeconomy and climate change is examined. The preliminary investigation uses correlation, Granger causality and simple regression methods. The preliminary evidence suggests that there is some relationship but that the direction of causation between the macroeconomy and the climate variables is indeterminate. The main analysis involves the use of a panel data (random effects) model which fits the historical data (1971-2007) very well. Projections of economic growth from 2008 to 2099 are done on the basis of four climate scenarios: the International Panel on Climate Change A2, B2, a hybrid A2B2 (the mid-point of A2 and B2), and a ‘baseline’ or ‘Business as Usual’ scenario, which assumes that the growth rate in the period 2008-2099 is the same as the average growth rate over the period 1971-2007. The best average growth rate is under the B2 scenario, followed by the hybrid A2B2 and A2 scenarios, in that order. Although negative growth rates eventually dominate, they are largely positive for a long time. The projections all display long-run secular decline in growth rates notwithstanding short-run upward trends, including some very sharp ones, moving eventually from declining positive rates to negative ones. The costs associated with the various scenarios are all quite high, rising to as high as a present value (2007 base year) of US$14 billion in 2099 (constant 1990 prices) for the B2 scenario and US$21 billion for the BAU scenario. These costs were calculated on the basis of very conservative estimates of the cost of environmental degradation. Mitigation and adaptation costs are likely to be quite high though a small fraction of projected total investment costs.

Report of the roundtable: towards development of a climate change policy for the Caribbean

The Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) Subregional Headquarters for the Caribbean, in collaboration with the Caribbean Community (CARICOM) Secretariat through the Caribbean Community Climate Change Centre (CCCCC), convened a meeting of technical experts working in the field of economics and climate change. The main objective of the meeting was to present the results of studies that were conducted under the project, “Understanding the Potential Economic Impact of Climate Change in Latin America and the Caribbean”. These presentations were expected to sensitize the experts to the costs of the impacts of climate change in different development scenarios and also present the costs of adaptative and mitigative strategies to 2100. It was expected that discussions of the presentation would inform the preparation of a subregional climate change policy through an examination of the existing Regional Climate Change Framework for Building Resilience. Discussions were also intended to focus on updating participants on the upcoming negotiations for the new Kyoto Protocol that would take place in Mexico in November 2010. The meeting took the form of presentations by relevant experts followed by discussions. Each discussion segment resulted in recommendations that would inform development of the policy. The meeting was held at the ECLAC Subregional Headquarters for the Caribbean, Port of Spain, Trinidad and Tobago, on 30 June 2010.

REDD+ no Estado do Pará: a política ambiental climática paraense no contexto nacional e internacional

A inserção do mecanismo de Redução de Emissões por Desmatamento e Degradação Florestal (REDD) no contexto do ordenamento jurídico-normativo e institucional do Estado do Pará, é a temática abordada pelo presente trabalho. A metodologia aplicada na presente pesquisa se baseou em duas técnicas de coletade dados, quais sejam o levantamento documental e a aplicação de questionário estruturado junto aos órgãos estaduais responsáveis pela articulação e implementação desse mecanismo no território paraense. De recente surgimento no cenário das discussões internacionais sobre meio ambiente e mudanças climáticas globais, levadas a efeito no âmbito da Convenção-Quadro das Nações Unidas sobre Mudança do Clima, o REDD se apresenta como proposta de desmatamento evitado para os países em desenvolvimento, cuja preservação do patrimônio florestal, em vista dos potenciais benefícios para a mitigação do aquecimento global, deveria ser compensado por meio da remuneração de indivíduos, comunidades, projetos e países, conforme a proposta originalmente lançada no ano de 2005, durante a COP 11, realizada em Montreal, no Canadá. Nesse contexto, o Estado do Pará, que encerrou o ano de 2012 como líder nos números de desmatamento entre os Estados da Amazônia Legal, ainda em 2009 previu a inserção do mecanismo de REDD no quadro jurídico regulatório e institucional paraense como parte das ações do (Decreto Estadual nº 1.697/2009). Decorrida a primeira fase de execução do Plano, qual seja o interstício de agosto de 2009 a agosto de 2012, verificou-se que osprocessos decisórios para implementação do mecanismo não avançaram, em que pese a existência de projetos dessa natureza em curso no território paraense, e o avanço dos demais Estados amazônicos quanto à temática, cujos arcabouços normativos já dispõem de políticas públicas atinentes ao REDD e REDD+ e importantes medidas adicionais correlatas, a exemplo da regulação sobre pagamento de serviços ambientais e políticas estaduais sobre mudanças climáticas.

Pollination services at risk: Bee habitats will decrease owing to climate change in Brazil

Native bees are important providers of pollination services, but there are cumulative evidences of their decline. Global changes such as habitat losses, invasions of exotic species and climate change have been suggested as the main causes of the decline of pollinators. In this study, the influence of climate change on the distribution of 10 species of Brazilian bees was estimated with species distribution modelling. We used Maxent algorithm (maximum entropy) and two different scenarios, an optimistic and a pessimistic, to the years 2050 and 2080. We also evaluated the percentage reduction of species habitat based on the future scenarios of climate change through Geographic Information System (GIS). Results showed that the total area of suitable habitats decreased for all species but one under the different future scenarios. The greatest reductions in habitat area were found for Melipona bicolor bicolor and Melipona scutellaris, which occur predominantly in areas related originally to Atlantic Moist Forest. The species analysed have been reported to be pollinators of some regional crops and the consequence of their decrease for these crops needs further clarification. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Promoting gender equality in responses to climate change: The case of Kenya

The paper discusses how Kenyan policies and organisations address gender equality in climate change-related responses. The political support for gender issues is reflected in presidential directives on various actions for achieving gender equality such as the establishment of gender desk officers and ensuring 30 per cent female representation in government. Despite the well-advanced gender mainstreaming policy in Kenya, few policies focus on climate change and even fewer on its inter-linkages with gender. At the field level, encrusted traditions, inadequately trained staff, limited financial resources, and limited awareness of the inter-linkages between gender and climate change remain major challenges to promoting gender equality in the work of government organisations. The paper thus proposes measures for addressing these challenges and strengthening gender equality in responses to climate change.

Geochemistry of corals: Proxies of past ocean chemistry, ocean circulation, and climate

This paper presents a discussion of the status of the field of coral geochemistry as it relates to the recovery of past records of ocean chemistry, ocean circulation, and climate. The first part is a brief review of coral biology, density banding, and other important factors involved in understanding corals as proxies of environmental variables. The second part is a synthesis of the information available to date on extracting records of the carbon cycle and climate change. It is clear from these proxy records that decade time-scale variability of mixing processes in the oceans is a dominant signal. That Western and Eastern tropical Pacific El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) records differ is an important piece of the puzzle for understanding regional and global climate change. Input of anthropogenic CO2 to the oceans as observed by 13C and 14C isotopes in corals is partially obscured by natural variability. Nonetheless, the general trend over time toward lower δ18O values at numerous sites in the world’s tropical oceans suggests a gradual warming and/or freshening of the surface ocean over the past century.

Ozone and climate:scientific consensus and leadership

This article compares the cases of ozone layer protection and climate change. In both cases, scientific expertise has played a comparatively important role in the policy process. The author argues that against conventional assumptions, scientific consensus is not necessary to achieve ambitious political goals. However, the architects of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change operated under such assumptions. The author argues that this is problematic both from a theoretical viewpoint and from empirical evidence. Contrary to conventional assumptions, ambitious political regulations in the ozone case were agreed under scientific uncertainty, whereas the negotiations on climate change were much more modest albeit based on a large scientific consensus. On the basis of a media analysis, the author shows that the creation of a climate of expectation plus pressure from leader countries is crucial for success. © 2006 Sage Publication.

Regional climate change impacts on wild animals' living territory in Central Europe

In this paper the projected future impact of climate change has been analyzed for the quality of living conditions of the European terrestrial vertebrates (amphibians, reptiles, birds, mammals) in the Carpathian Basin. According to the climate scenarios, warmer and drier climatic conditions are likely to occur in the Carpathian Basin by end of this century. Simultaneous analysis of climate parameters, climate simulations and animal range datasets enables us to evaluate the vulnerability of different European species to regional warming and climate change. The spatial climate analogy technique is used to analyze the estimated rapid change of the wild animals’ habitats and their northward migration. For the reference climate data of Debrecen is considered, and three spatial analogue regions are compared. The results suggest that generally a significant decline in habitats is very likely for most of the analyzed animal groups by the end of the 21st century. The largest rate of decline is estimated for birds. However, living conditions for reptiles may improve in the future due to the warmer and drier climatic conditions, which are favourable for these species.