Intuition and its component parts in the heuristic processing of deception detection: Hunch, *evidence, and reliance on intuitive efficacy

Rated trust in intuitive efficacy (measured as trust, belief, use, accuracy and weighting of intuition) was investigated as a predictor of self-designated use of intuitive (hunch and hunch plus evidential belief) vs. deliberative (evidential belief and evidential belief plus hunch) deception detection judgments and actual accuracy. Twenty-nine student participants were filmed as they made true and deceptive statements about their everyday activities on a given evening (last Friday night), and college students (N=238) judged 20 (10=true, 10=deceptive) of these filmed statements as truthful or deceptive. Participants provided ratings of reliance on hunches vs. evidential belief, confidence in film judgments, intuitive efficacy, accuracy in deception detection, reliance on cues to deception, and experiences with intuition. Generalized estimated equation modeling using binary logistics demonstrated accuracy in identifying true vs. deceptive statements was predicted by film number, hunch-evidence ratings, weighting of intuition, and total cues cited. Weighting of intuition was predictive of accuracy across participants, with higher weighting predictive of higher accuracy in general. Participants who cited evidential belief plus hunch and moderate to high weighting incorrectly reversed their true vs. deceptive judgments. Accuracy for true statements was higher for hunches and hunch plus evidential belief, whereas accuracy for deceptive statements was higher for evidential belief Accuracy for participants who relied on evidential belief plus hunch was at chance. Subjective experiences underlying judgments differed by participant and type of film viewed (true vs. deceptive) and were predicted by hunch-evidence ratings, trust, use, intuitive accuracy, and total cues cited. Trust predicted increases in judging films to be true, whereas use and accuracy predicted increases in judging films as deceptive; none were predictive of accuracy. Increased number of cues cited predicted judgments of deception, whereas decreased number of cues cited predicted truth. The study concluded that participants have the capacity to self-define their judgments as subjectively vs. deliberately based, provide subjective assessments of the influence of intuitive vs. objective information on their judgments, and can apply this self-knowledge, through effective weighting of intuition vs. other types of information, in making accurate judgments of true and deceptive everyday statements.

Institutional Persistence in Eastern Europe: Economic and Political Legacies of Empires and Communism

This dissertation seeks to advance our understanding of the roles that institutions play in economic development. How do institutions evolve? What mechanisms are responsible for their persistence? What effects do they have on economic development?

I address these questions using historical and contemporary data from Eastern Europe and Russia. This area is relatively understudied by development economists. It also has a very interesting history. For one thing, for several centuries it was divided between different empires. For another, it experienced wars and socialism in the 20th century. I use some of these exogenous shocks as quasi-natural social experiments to study the institutional transformations and its effects on economic development both in the short and long run.

This first chapter explores whether economic, social, and political institutions vary in their resistance to policies designed to remove them. The empirical context for the analysis is Romania from 1690 to the 2000s. Romania represents an excellent laboratory for studying the persistence of different types of historical institutional legacies. In the 18th and 19th centuries, Romania was split between the Habsburg and Ottoman Empires, where political and economic institutions differed. The Habsburgs imposed less extractive institutions relative to the Ottomans: stronger rule of law, a more stable and predictable state, a more developed civil society, and less corruption. In the 20th century, the Romanian Communist regime tried deliberately to homogenize the country along all relevant dimensions. It was only partially successful. Using a regression discontinuity design, I document the persistence of economic outcomes, social capital, and political attitudes. First, I document remarkable convergence in urbanization, education, unemployment, and income between the two former empires. Second, regarding social capital, no significant differences in organizational membership, trust in bureaucracy, and corruption persist today. Finally, even though the Communists tried to change all political attitudes, significant discontinuities exist in current voting behavior at the former Habsburg-Ottoman border. Using data from the parliamentary elections of 1996-2008, I find that former Habsburg rule decreases by around 6 percentage points the vote share of the major post-Communist left party and increases by around 2 and 5 percentage points the vote shares of the main anti-Communist and liberal parties, respectively.

The second chapter investigates the effects of Stalin’s mass deportations on distrust in central authority. Four deported ethnic groups were not rehabilitated after Stalin’s death; they remained in permanent exile until the disintegration of the Soviet Union. This allows one to distinguish between the effects of the groups that returned to their homelands and those of the groups that were not allowed to return. Using regional data from the 1991 referendum on the future of the Soviet Union, I find that deportations have a negative interim effect on trust in central authority in both the regions of destination and those of origin. The effect is stronger for ethnic groups that remained in permanent exile in the destination regions. Using data from the Life in Transition Survey, the chapter also documents a long-term effect of deportations in the destination regions.

The third chapter studies the short-term effect of Russian colonization of Central Asia on economic development. I use data on the regions of origin of Russian settlers and push factors to construct an instrument for Russian migration to Central Asia. This instrument allows me to interpret the outcomes causally. The main finding is that the massive influx of Russians into the region during the 1897-1926 period had a significant positive effect on indigenous literacy. The effect is stronger for men and in rural areas. Evidently, interactions between natives and Russians through the paid labor market was an important mechanism of human capital transmission in the context of colonization.

The findings of these chapters provide additional evidence that history and institutions do matter for economic development. Moreover, the dissertation also illuminates the relative persistence of institutions. In particular, political and social capital legacies of institutions might outlast economic legacies. I find that most economic differences between the former empires in Romania have disappeared. By the same token, there are significant discontinuities in political outcomes. People in former Habsburg Romania provide greater support for liberalization, privatization, and market economy, whereas voters in Ottoman Romania vote more for redistribution and government control over the economy.

In the former Soviet Union, Stalin’s deportations during World War II have a long-term negative effect on social capital. Today’s residents of the destination regions of deportations show significantly lower levels of trust in central authority. This is despite the fact that the Communist regime tried to eliminate any source of opposition and used propaganda to homogenize people’s political and social attitudes towards the authorities. In Central Asia, the influx of Russian settlers had a positive short-term effect on human capital of indigenous population by the 1920s, which also might have persisted over time.

From a development perspective, these findings stress the importance of institutions for future paths of development. Even if past institutional differences are not apparent for a certain period of time, as was the case with the former Communist countries, they can polarize society later on, hampering economic development in the long run. Different institutions in the past, which do not exist anymore, can thus contribute to current political instability and animosity.

A voice for change? Trust relationships between ombudsmen, individuals and public service providers

There has been a debate for years about what the role of the ombudsman is. This article examines a key component of the role, to promote trust in public services and government. To be able to do this, however, an ombudsman needs to be perceived as legitimate and be trusted by a range of stakeholders, including the user. This article argues that three key relationships in a person’s complaint journey can build trust in an institution, and must therefore be understood as a system. The restorative justice framework is adapted to conceptualize this trust model as a novel approach to understanding the institution from the perspective of its users. Taking two public sector ombudsmen as examples, the article finds that voice and trust need to be reinforced through the relationships in a consumer journey to manage individual expectations, prevent disengagement, and thereby promote trust in the institution, in public service providers, and in government.

The art of building trust via e-communication channels: Post-acquisition integration as a special context

This study discusses the importance of establishing trust in post-acquisition integration context and how the use of e-channels facilitates or inhibits this process. The objective of this study is to analyze how the use of electronic communication channels influences the post-acquisition integration process in terms of trust establishment and overall integration efficiency, developing a framework as a result. Three sub-objectives are introduced: to find out the building blocks of trust in M&A’s, to analyse how the use of e-channels influence the process of trust establishment in post-acquisition integration context, and to define the consequences trust and use of e-channels have for the process. The theoretical background of the study includes literature and theories relating to trust establishment in post-acquisition integration context and how the use of e-channels influences the process of trust development on a general level. The empirical research is conducted as a single case study, based on key informant interviews. The interview data was collected between October 2015 and January 2016. Altogether nine interviews were realised; six with representatives from the acquiring firm and three with target firm members. Thematic analysis was selected as the main method for analysing and processing the qualitative data. This study finds that trust has an essential role in post-acquisition integration context, facilitating the integration process in various different ways. Hence, identifying the different building blocks of trust is important in order for members of the organisations to be better able establish and maintain trust. In today’s international business, the role of electronic communication channels has also increased in importance significantly and it was confirmed that these pose both challenges and possibilities for the development of interpersonal trust. One of the most important underlying factors influencing the trust levels via e-communication channels is the level of user’s comfort in using the different e-channels. Without sufficient and meaningful training, the communication conducted via these channels in inhibited in a number of ways. Hence, understanding the defining characteristics of e-communication together with the risks and opportunities related to the use of these can have far-reaching consequences for the post-acquisition integration process as a whole. The framework based on the findings and existing theory introduces the most central factors influencing the trust establishment together with the positive and negative consequences these have for the integration process. Moreover, organizational level consistency and the existence of shared guidelines on appropriate selection of communication channels according to the nature of the task at hand are seen as important

Trust, confidence, and equity affect the legitimacy of natural resource governance

Social-ecological systems are often highly complex, making effective governance a considerable challenge. In large, heterogeneous systems, hierarchical institutional regimes may be efficient, but effective management outcomes are dependent on stakeholder support. This support is shaped by perceptions of legitimacy, which risks being undermined where resource users are not engaged in decision-making. Although legitimacy is demonstrably critical for effective governance, less is known about the factors contributing to stakeholders’ perceptions of legitimacy or how these perceptions are socially differentiated. We quantitatively assessed stakeholder perceptions of legitimacy (indicated by support for rules) and their contributory factors among 307 commercial fishers and tourism operators in Australia’s Great Barrier Reef Marine Park. Legitimacy was most strongly associated with trust in information from governing bodies, followed by confidence in institutional performance and the equity of management outcomes. Legitimacy differed both within and among resource user groups, which emphasizes the heterogeneous nature of commonly defined stakeholder groups. Overall, tourism operators perceived higher legitimacy than did commercial fishers, which was associated with higher trust in information from management agencies. For fishers, higher levels of trust were associated with: (1) engagement in fisheries that had high subsector cohesion and positive previous experiences of interactions with governing bodies; (2) location in areas with greater proximity to sources of knowledge, resources, and decision-making; and (3) engagement in a Reef Guardian program. These findings highlight the necessity of strategies and processes to build trust among all user groups in large social-ecological systems such as the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park. Furthermore, the social differentiation of perceptions that were observed within user groups underscores the importance of targeted strategies to engage groups that may not be heard through traditional governance channels.

Examining Factors Affecting Attitudes toward Nuclear Power in Taiwan

Thesis (Master's)--University of Washington, 2016-06

Should I stay or should I go – Factors associated with hospitalization risk among older persons in Sweden

An increasingly older population will most likely lead to greater demands on the health care system, as older age is associated with an increased risk of having acute and chronic conditions. The number of diseases or disabilities is not the only marker of the amount of health care utilized, as persons may seek hospitalization without a disease and/or illness that requires hospital healthcare. Hospitalization may pose a severe risk to older persons, as exposure to the hospital environment may lead to increased risks of iatrogenic disorders, confusion, falls and nosocomial infections, i.e., disorders that may involve unnecessary suffering and lead to serious consequences. Aims: The overall aim of this thesis was to describe and explore individual trajectories of cognitive development in relation to hospitalization and risk factors for hospitalization among older persons living in different accommodations in Sweden and to explore older persons' reasons for being transferred to a hospital. Methods: The study designs were longitudinal, prospective and descriptive, and both quantitative and qualitative methods were used. Specifically, latent growth curve modelling was used to assess the association of cognitive development with hospitalization. The Cox proportional hazards regression model was used to analyse factors associated with hospitalization risk overtime. In addition, an explorative descriptive design was used to explore how home health care patients experienced and perceived their decision to seek hospital care. Results: The most common reasons for hospitalization were cardiovascular diseases, which caused more than one-quarter of first hospitalizations among the persons living in ordinary housing and nursing home residents (NHRs). The persons who had been hospitalized had a lower mean level of cognitive performance in general cognition, verbal, spatial/fluid, memory and processing speed abilities compared to those who had not been hospitalized. Significantly steeper declines in general cognition, spatial/fluid and processing speed abilities were observed among the persons who had been hospitalized. Cox proportional hazards regression analysis showed that the number of diseases, number of drugs used, having experienced a fall and being assessed as malnourished according to the Mini Nutritional Assessment scale were related to an increased hospitalization risk among the NHRs. Among the older persons living in ordinary housing, the risk factors for hospitalization were related to marital status, i.e., unmarried persons and widows/widowers had a decreased hospitalization risk. In addition, among social factors, receipt of support from relatives was related to an increased hospitalization risk, while receipt of support from friends was related to a decreased risk. The number of illnesses was not associated with the hospitalization risk for older persons in any age group or for those of either sex, when controlling for other variables. The older persons who received home health care described different reasons for their decisions to seek hospital care. The underlying theme of the home health care patients’ perceptions of their transfer to a hospital involved trust in hospitals. This trust was shared by the home health care patients, their relatives and the home health care staff, according to the patients. Conclusions: This thesis revealed that middle-aged and older persons who had been hospitalized exhibited a steeper decline in cognition. Specifically, spatial/fluid, processing speed, and general cognitive abilities were affected. The steeper decline in cognition among those who had been hospitalized remained even after controlling for comorbidities. The most common causes of hospitalization among the older persons living in ordinary housing and in nursing homes were cardiovascular diseases, tumours and falls. Not only health-related factors, such as the number of diseases, number of drugs used, and being assessed as malnourished, but also social factors and marital status were related to the hospitalization risk among the older persons living in ordinary housing and in nursing homes. Some risk factors associated with hospitalization differed not only between the men and women but also among the different age groups. The information provided in this thesis could be applied in care settings by professionals who interact with older persons before they decide to seek hospital care. To meet the needs of an older population, health care systems need to offer the proper health care at the most appropriate level, and they need to increase integration and coordination among health care delivered by different care services.

Patients' satisfaction and quality of life in coronary artery disease

OBJECTIVES: To assess satisfaction of survivors of coronary artery diseases (CAD) with healthcare services and to determine whether specific components of standard health-related quality of life (HRQL) assessment tools might identify areas of satisfaction and dissatisfaction. METHOD: A specific tool developed to provide a comprehensive assessment of healthcare needs was administered concomitantly with generic and specific HRQL instruments, on 242 patients with CAD, admitted to an acute coronary unit during a single year. RESULTS: 92.5% of patients confirmed their trust in and satisfaction with the care given by their General Practitioner; even so, one third experienced difficulty getting an appointment and a quarter wanted more time for each consultation or prompt referral to a specialist when needed. Around a third expressed dissatisfaction with advice from the practice nurse or hospital consultant. Overall 54% were highly satisfied with services, 33% moderately satisfied and 13% dissatisfied.Cronbach's alpha was 0.87; the corrected total-item correlation ranged between 0.55-0.75, with trivial 'floor' score and low 'ceiling' effect. Several domains in all three HRQL tools correlated with items relating to satisfaction. The Seattle Angina Questionnaire Treatment Score correlated significantly with all satisfaction items and with the global satisfaction score. CONCLUSION: Cardiac patients' demanded better services and advice from, and more time with, health professionals and easier surgery access. The satisfaction tool showed acceptable psychometric properties. In this patient group, disease-specific HRQL tools seem more appropriate than generic tools for surveys of patient satisfaction

Simone Weil’s questions about God

We can say that the 20th century was not an era for seeking the truth in the first place. Philosophers and others were absorbed with the idea that we cannot know anything for certain. No one is able to claim that something is really true. However, we can find philosophers who were willing to die for the truth. We can discover them in the Orthodox, Catholic, and Protestant Churches. For example, father Pavel Florensky, a Russian philosopher and priest, played an important role in solving the problem of correlation between culture and religion. He died executed by the firing squad at the Solovki Gulag on December 8th, 1937. Another such philosopher was St. Edith Stein. She was martyred equally for the truth of the Catholic Faith and for the truth of Mosaic Faith. Edith Stein was put on a train heading for the East and died in the gas chambers of Auschwitz probably on 9th August, 1942. The third person, who died for the truth in those horrible times, was Dietrich Bonhoeffer. The integrity of his Christian faith and life led him to a concentration camp, where he was hanged on April 9th, 1945. Looking at those great people of European history in the 20th century, we can see some contrasts and similarities to the life and activity of a French thinker – Simone Weil. Simone Weil was looking for the truth all her life. She was Jewish, but she was attracted to Roman Catholicism and sure that the truth is in God. Simone Weil persuades us that it is at the same time possible and impossible to know God, because “Dieu ne peut ętre présent dans la création que sous la forme de l’absence”.

Information security value in e-entrepreneurship

This paper researches the information security value in e-entrepreneurship by revising the literature that establishes the entrepreneurial domain and by relating it with the development of technological resources that create value for the customer in an online business. It details multiple paradigms regarding consumer’s values of information security, while relating them with common practices and previous researches in technological entrepreneurship. This research presents and discusses the benefits of information security standards in e-entrepreneurship. It details and discusses the ISO 27001 and PCI-DSS information security standards that can be used to differentiate security initiatives to achieve competitive advantage, while preserving information leadership as a critical resource for online business success. Based on the literature review, a theoretical research model is presented and research hypotheses are discussed. This model believes that information security affects information leadership and that information leadership, as a unique resource in e-business, contributes to e-entrepreneurship success. The adoption of information security standards affects customer’s trust in e-business, which also benefits e-entrepreneurial strategy.

A conceptualisation of a governance model for biobanks in the digital society

Biobanks are key infrastructures in data-driven biomedical research. The counterpoint of this optimistic vision is the reality of biobank governance, which must address various ethical, legal and social issues, especially in terms of open consent, privacy and secondary uses which, if not sufficiently resolved, may undermine participants’ and society’s trust in biobanking. The effect of the digital paradigm on biomedical research has only accentuated these issues by adding new pressure for the data protection of biobank participants against the risks of covert discrimination, abuse of power against individuals and groups, and critical commercial uses. Moreover, the traditional research-ethics framework has been unable to keep pace with the transformative developments of the digital era, and has proven inadequate in protecting biobank participants and providing guidance for ethical practices. To this must be added the challenge of an increased tendency towards exploitation and the commercialisation of personal data in the field of biomedical research, which may undermine the altruistic and solidaristic values associated with biobank participation and risk losing alignment with societal interests in biobanking. My research critically analyses, from a bioethical perspective, the challenges and the goals of biobank governance in data-driven biomedical research in order to understand the conditions for the implementation of a governance model that can foster biomedical research and innovation, while ensuring adequate protection for biobank participants and an alignment of biobank procedures and policies with society’s interests and expectations. The main outcome is a conceptualisation of a socially-oriented and participatory model of biobanks by proposing a new ethical framework that relies on the principles of transparency, data protection and participation to tackle the key challenges of biobanks in the digital age and that is well-suited to foster these goals.

Knowledges and practices of successful literacy teachers (Brazil, 1950-1980)

Significant changes have marked Brazilian education in the period focused on by this research. Aiming to understand the configurations of the teaching profession in that period, this work focuses on the issue of the school success in the area of literacy by means of an analysis of the practices of literacy teachers who were at work between the 1950s and 1980s. The research is based on life-history accounts. The study aimed at describing the various experiences of these teachers identifying the knowledges and practices that sustained their successful literacy work as well as the various factors of a social, religious, political, familiar or other nature that, in the history of each of these teachers, favoured the development of a pedagogical style of literacy particular to each one of them. Despite the peculiarities and originality of each history, the success in the literacy process, as the defining feature of the profile of the four teachers, results from two main aspects: first, the autonomy that each one managed to keep in the development of his/her teaching work, particularly in the organisation of the teaching practices that indicated greater chances of a pupil`s learning to read and write; second, their trust in the capacity of every child for learning, independently of his/her social, economic and cultural conditions. Based on this evidence it is argued that the success of the pedagogical work, particularly during the early years of schooling, lies in an ethics of the teaching work with a double implication: first, it requires the teachers` dedication to their pupils, and second, it requires respect for the work of the teacher, so that she/he can maintain her/his autonomy and inventiveness. These aspects indicate the need for reflection on teaching work and a review of current teacher education policies, particularly the policies targeted at teachers working with literacy practices.

Examining the effects of work externalization through the lens of social identity theory

This study examines whether dissimilarity among employees that is based on their work status (i.e., whether they are temporary or internal workers) influences their organization-based self-esteem, their trust in and attraction toward their peers, and their altruism. A model that is based on social identity theory posits that work-status dissimilarity negatively influences each outcome variable and that the strength of this relationship varies depending on whether employees have temporary or internal status and the composition of their work groups. Results that are based on a survey of 326 employees (189 internal and 137 temporary) from 34 work groups, belonging to 2 organizations, indicate that work-status dissimilarity has a systematic negative effect only on outcomes related to internal workers when they work in temporary-worker-dominated groups.

Or??amento orientado a resultados: instrumento de fortalecimento democr??tico na Am??rica Latina?

O presente artigo discute a rela????o entre or??amento e democracia, argumentando que as transforma????es propugnadas pela or??amenta????o por resultados possuem n??o somente benef??cios gerenciais para a administra????o p??blica, mas tamb??m efeitos positivos sobre o sistema pol??tico e suas institui????es. Dados emp??ricos demonstram que os padr??es de confian??a institucional na Am??rica Latina s??o baixos, apesar de a confian??a no regime democr??tico ser significativamente maior. A implanta????o do modelo de or??amento orientado a resultados (OOR) representa ruptura com o paradigma tradicional de gest??o p??blica, propondo a substitui????o do foco nos insumos, controles, regulamentos e conformidade pela ??nfase na a????o estrat??gica, efetividade do gasto p??blico, flexibilidade gerencial, accountability e participa????o da sociedade. A formula????o de pol??ticas p??blicas orientadas para as necessidades dos cidad??os fomenta o capital social da comunidade, alavancando rela????es sin??rgicas entre governo e sociedade. Esse estreitamento fortalece as institui????es democr??ticas na medida em que favorece o monitoramento do desempenho do governante pela sua comunidade e, especialmente, contribui para aprimorar os mecanismos de representa????o pol??tica.

A influência do eWOM gerado pelos grupos de referência no Facebook, em Portugal

Dissertação apresentada ao Instituto Superior de Contabilidade e Administração do Porto para a obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Marketing Digital. Orientado por Mestre Inês Veiga Pereira