Driver of Demand in Cargo and Passenger Traffic Between Penta Ports

Maritime transport moves around 6 billion tonnes of freight every year. The freight consists of liquid bulks (45%), dry bulks (23%) and general cargo (32%). Freight traffic and transports chains vary according to region, commodity and the origin and the destination of freight. In the European Union the ports sector handles over 90% of the trade with third countries. The share of intra-EU trade is approximately 30% of the total transportation and the number of passengers is over 200 million every year. The Baltic Sea has more than 50,000 vessels a year pass the Skaw at the northernmost tip of Denmark on their way into or out of the Baltic. Roughly 60% to 70% of these vessels are cargo vessels and 17% to 25% tankers. Ports and maritime transport play a crucial role in global commerce today. Today’s business environment is changing rapidly, and the constant changes create challenges for the transport industry and maritime traffic. Ports have to adapt to continuous changes in economic structures, logistics demands, and people’s travel and leisure patterns. In order to ensure the competitiveness of sea connections, the ports need to fully enhance multilateral cross-border understanding and cooperation. In this report the focus is on liner traffic between five ports in the Central Baltic Region: Stockholm, Tallinn, Helsinki Turku and Naantali. The report defines the drivers of the demand for cargo and passenger traffic and highlights the most important factors. The economic situation and foreign trade of each county are elaborated on with detailed information about the flows of traffic between the five ports. Based on expert interviews, the main characteristics of each port, including strengths and weaknesses, are presented. The report is based on primary and secondary data. Primary data was received through interviews and mail surveys. Secondary data was attained through a literature research, statistics, data given by the PENTA ports and webpages. The report is divided into two main parts: the drivers creating the demand for transport and the results of current cargo and passenger flows between PENTA ports.

Scenario-based traffic forecasts for the routes between the PENTA ports in 2020

Maritime transport is the foundation for trade in the Baltic Sea area. It represents over 15% of the world’s cargo traffic and it is predicted to increase by over 100% in the future. There are currently over 2,000 ships sailing on the Baltic Sea and both the number and the size of ships have been growing in recent years. Due to the importance of maritime traffic in the Baltic Sea Region, ports have to be ready to face future challenges and adapt to the changing operational environment. The companies within the transportation industry – in this context ports, shipowners and logistics companies – compete continuously and although the number of companies in the business is not particularly substantial because the products offered are very similar, other motives for managing the supply chain arise. The factors creating competitive advantage are often financial and related to cost efficiency, but geographical location, road infrastructure in the hinterland and vessel connections are among the most important factors. The PENTA project focuses on adding openness, transparency and sharing knowledge and information, so that the challenges of the future can be better addressed with regard to cooperation. This report presents three scenario-based traffic forecasts for routes between the PENTA ports in 2020. The chosen methodology is PESTE, in which the focus in on economic factors affecting future traffic flows. The report further analyses the findings and results of the first PENTA WP2 report “Drivers of demand in cargo and passenger traffic between PENTA ports” and utilises the same material, which was obtained through interviews and mail surveys.

Automatic traffic sign inventory- and condition analysis

This thesis researches automatic traffic sign inventory and condition analysis using machine vision and pattern recognition methods. Automatic traffic sign inventory and condition analysis can be used to more efficient road maintenance, improving the maintenance processes, and to enable intelligent driving systems. Automatic traffic sign detection and classification has been researched before from the viewpoint of self-driving vehicles, driver assistance systems, and the use of signs in mapping services. Machine vision based inventory of traffic signs consists of detection, classification, localization, and condition analysis of traffic signs. The produced machine vision system performance is estimated with three datasets, from which two of have been been collected for this thesis. Based on the experiments almost all traffic signs can be detected, classified, and located and their condition analysed. In future, the inventory system performance has to be verified in challenging conditions and the system has to be pilot tested.

Renkaiden ja tienpinnan välisen kitkakertoimen mittausjärjestelmän suunnittelu ja toteutus

Teiden liukkauden mittaaminen on herättänyt kiinnostusta viime vuosina. Liikenneturvallisuutta pystyttäisiin parantamaan ja teiden talvikunnossapitoa tehostamaan, mikäli kitkakerroin voitaisiin mitata tiestöä käyttävissä ajoneuvoissa. Tässä työssä suunnitellaan ja toteutetaan ajoneuvon pituussuuntaiseen dynamiikkaan perustuva kitkakertoimen mittausjärjestelmä. Pyörien luisto ja ajoneuvon nopeus, sekä pyöriin ja ajoneuvoon kohdistuvat voimat selvitetään CAN – väylästä luettavien ajoneuvon antureiden ja IMU:n avulla. Järjestelmää simuloidaan käyttämällä Matlab:ia ja testataan käytännössä VW Transporter pakettiautossa. Testitulokset osoittavat järjestelmän toimivan tarkasti ja että ajoneuvon dynamiikkaan perustuvan kitkakertoimen mittauksen on käyttökelpoinen ja kustannustehokas tapa teiden liukkauden valvomiseen.

Use of fluorescent probes to follow membrane traffic in nerve terminals

Optical tracers in conjunction with fluorescence microscopy have become widely used to follow the movement of synaptic vesicles in nerve terminals. The present review discusses the use of these optical methods to understand the regulation of exocytosis and endocytosis of synaptic vesicles. The maintenance of neurotransmission depends on the constant recycling of synaptic vesicles and important insights have been gained by visualization of vesicles with the vital dye FM1-43. A number of questions related to the control of recycling of synaptic vesicles by prolonged stimulation and the role of calcium to control membrane internalization are now being addressed. It is expected that optical monitoring of presynaptic activity coupled to appropriate genetic models will contribute to the understanding of membrane traffic in synaptic terminals.

Designing sustainable industrial ecosystems : the case of a biogas-for-traffic solution

This thesis focuses on the development of sustainable industrial architectures for bioenergy based on the metaphors of industrial symbiosis and industrial ecosystems, which imply exchange of material and energy side-flows of various industries in order to improve sustainability of those industries on a system level. The studies on industrial symbiosis have been criticised for staying at the level of incremental changes by striving for cycling waste and by-flows of the industries ‘as is’ and leaving the underlying industry structures intact. Moreover, there has been articulated the need for interdisciplinary research on industrial ecosystems as well as the need to extend the management and business perspectives on industrial ecology. This thesis addresses this call by applying a business ecosystem and business model perspective on industrial symbiosis in order to produce knowledge on how industrial ecosystems can be developed that are sustainable environmentally and economically. A case of biogas business is explored and described in four research papers and an extended summary that form this thesis. Since the aim of the research was to produce a normative model for developing sustainable industrial ecosystems, the methodology applied in this research can be characterised as constructive and collaborative. A constructive research mode was required in order to expand the historical knowledge on industrial symbiosis development and business ecosystem development into the knowledge of what should be done, which is crucial for sustainability and the social change it requires. A collaborative research mode was employed through participating in a series of projects devoted to the development of a biogas-for-traffic industrial ecosystem. The results of the study showed that the development of material flow interconnections within industrial symbiosis is inseparable from larger business ecosystem restructuring. This included a shift in the logic of the biogas and traffic fuel industry and a subsequent development of a business ecosystem that would entail the principles of industrial symbiosis and localised energy production and consumption. Since a company perspective has been taken in this thesis, the role of an ecosystem integrator appeared as a crucial means to achieve the required industry restructuring. This, in turn, required the development of a modular and boundary-spanning business model that had a strong focus on establishing collaboration among ecosystem stakeholders and development of multiple local industrial ecosystems as part of business growth. As a result, the designed business model of the ecosystem integrator acquired the necessary flexibility in order to adjust to local conditions, which is crucial for establishing industrial symbiosis. This thesis presents a normative model for the development of a business model required for creating sustainable industrial ecosystems, which contributes to approaches at the policy-makers’ level, proposed earlier. Therefore, this study addresses the call for more research on the business level of industrial ecosystem formation and the implications for the business models of the involved actors. Moreover, the thesis increases the understanding of system innovation and innovation in business ecosystems by explicating how business model innovation can be the trigger for achieving more sustainable industry structures, such as those relying on industrial symbiosis.

Sleep disorders, sleepiness and traffic safety: a public health menace

Sleep disorders are not uncommon and have been widely reported throughout the world. They have a profound impact on industrialized 24-h societies. Consequences of these problems include impaired social and recreational activities, increased human errors, loss of productivity, and elevated risk of accidents. Conditions such as acute and chronic insomnia, sleep loss, excessive sleepiness, shift-work, jet lag, narcolepsy, and sleep apnea warrant public health attention, since residual sleepiness during the day may affect performance of daily activities such as driving a car. Benzodiazepine hypnotics and zopiclone promote sleep, both having residual effects the following day including sleepiness and reduced alertness. In contrast, the non-benzodiazepine hypnotics zolpidem and zaleplon have no significant next-day residual effects when taken as recommended. Research on the effects of wakefulness-promoting drugs on driving ability is limited. Countermeasures for excessive daytime sleepiness have a limited effect. There is a need for a social awareness program to educate the public about the potential consequences of various sleep disorders such as narcolepsy, sleep apnea, shift-work-related sleep loss, and excessive daytime sleepiness in order to reduce the number of sleep-related traffic accidents.

Biofuel handling, pretreatment and traffic use in China

This paper describes the development situation of biofuel in China and the research progress and application in transportation and aviation area, including several key technologies of biofuel production: biofuel pretreatment and handling. This paper is aiming to find the best storing, transmitting, feeding and pretreating methods of various materials, as well as a comparison among the advantages and disadvantages of different pretreatment methods, which is expected to reduce cost in production process and reach the maximized benefits. Meanwhile, a case study of one biomass fuel production factory in China is presented with evaluation and analysis on their technology application.

Networking Notch : regulation of Notch traffic and signaling crosstalk

Utvecklingen av flercelliga organismer är en mångfacetterad process som kräver kommunikation celler emellan. Under utvecklingen av en organism måste cellerna göra vissa val, vilket bestämmer riktningen för deras fortsatta utveckling. Utgående från dessa val erhåller cellerna egenskaper som är karaktäristiska för olika celltyper. Notch-signalräckan är en viktig reglerare av valet mellan olika cellöden. Notch-signalräckan aktiveras när Notch-receptorer som uttrycks på ytan av en cell binder till Notch-ligander som uttrycks på ytan av en annan närliggande cell. Denna avhandling belyser mekanismerna som reglerar omsättningen av såväl Notch-receptorer som -ligander till och från cellmembranen, samt ökar förståelsen för hur dessa mekanismer påverkar Notch-medierade cellöden i stamceller. Internalisering av Notch receptorer anses nödvändigt för fullständig aktivering av Notch-signalvägen. De bakomliggande molekylära mekanismerna är dock fortfarande oklara. Vi har upptäckt att atypiskt protein kinas Cζ (aPKCζ) reglerar internaliseringen av Notch-receptorer. aPKCζ fosforylerar Notch, vilket leder till receptorns internalisering, men effekten är beroende av receptorns signaleringsstatus. Vi visar att aPKCζ reglerar Notch-signaleringen och styr både neuroners och muskelcellers differentiering. Ytterligare har vi analyserat samspelet mellan cellskelettet och Notch-signalvägen. Våra resultat visar att intermediärfilamenten, en del av cellskelettet, är viktiga reglerare av Notch-signaleringen både under neuronal och vaskulär utveckling. Intermediärfilamenten vimentin och GFAP reglerar uttrycket av Notch-ligander vid cellmembranen i hjärnans stödceller, astrocyterna, och påverkar därmed neuronala stamcellers cellödesbeslut. Vimentin är även viktigt reglerare av Notch-signalräckan vid angiogenesen. Celler som saknar vimentin uppvisar avvikande Notch-signalering emedan möss som saknar vimentin påvisar en fördröjd utveckling av vaskulaturen under embryonalstadiet. ------------------------------------------------- Monisoluisten organismien kehittyminen on monimutkainen prosessi, joka vaatii viestintää solujen välillä. Kehittymisen aikana solut joutuvat tiettyjen valintojen eteen, mitkä tulevat määrittämään niiden erilaistumisen suunnan. Solut omaksuvat solutyypille ominaisia ominaisuuksia näihin valintoihin perustuen Notch-signalointireitti säätelee solujen erilaistumista eri suuntiin. Notch-signalointireitti aktivoituu, kun Notch-reseptori yhden solun pinnalla sitoo Notch-ligandin toisen, viereisen solun solukalvolla. Tutkimukseni lisää tuntemusta Notch-reseptoreiden ja ligandien solun sisäisestä liikennöinnistä ja sitä säätelevistä mekanismeista, sekä tämän säätelyn vaikutuksista kantasulojen erilaistumiseen. Notch-signalointireitin aktivoituminen vaatii reseptoreiden ja ligandien sisäistämisen solukalvolta, mutta taustalla olevat ja sisäistymistä säätelevät mekanismit ovat vielä epäselviä. Tutkimukseni osoittaa, että atyyppinen proteiinikinaasi Cζ (aPKCζ) säätelee Notch-reseptoreiden endosytoosia. Endosytoosin lopputulos riippuu siitä onko reseptori aktivoitunut ligandin välityksellä vai ei. Tuloksemme osoittavat aPKCζ säätelevän Notch-signalointia ja kontrolloivan sekä hermosolujen, että lihassolujen erilaistumista. Analysoimme myös Notch-signaloinnin ja solun tukirangan vuorovaikutuksia. Välikokoiset filamentit, jotka ovat osa tukirankaa, säätelevät Notch-signalointia neuronaalisen erilaistumisen sekä verisuonten uudismuodostumisen aikana. Vimentiini ja GFAP ovat välikokoisia säikeitä, jotka säätelevät Notch-ligandien ekspressiota astrosyyttien, eli aivojen hermotukisolujen solukalvolla. Vimentiini säätelee myös Notch-signalointireittiä angiogeneesin aikana. Vimentiiniä vailla olevilla soluilla ilmenee heikentynyttä Notch-signalointia, joka voidaan liittää hiirillä ilmenevään vimenttiinin puutteesta johtuvaan viivästyneeseen verisuonien kehitykseen.

Helsinki hub – new traffic flows and business networks

This thesis is the Logistics Development Forum's assignment and the work dealing with the development of the Port of Helsinki as part of Helsinki hub. The Forum aims to develop logistics efficiency through public-private co-operation and development of the port is clearly dependent on both factors. Freight volumes in the Port of Helsinki are the biggest single factor in hub and, therefore, the role of the port of the entire hub development is strong. The aim is to look at how the port will develop as a result of changes in the foreign trade of Finland and the Northern European logistics trends in 25 years time period. Work includes the current state analysis and scenario work. The analyses are intended to find out, which trends are the most important in the port volume development. The change and effect of trends is examined through scenarios based on current state. Based on the work, the structure of Finnish export industry and international demand are in the key role in the port volume development. There is significant difference between demands of Finnish exporting products in different export markets and the development between the markets has different impacts on the port volumes by mass and cargo type. On the other hand, the Finnish economy is stuck in a prolonged recession and competition between ports has become a significant factor in the individual port's volume development. Ecological valuesand regulations have changed the competitive landscape and maritime transport emissions reductions has become an important competitive factor for short routes in the Baltic Sea, such as in the link between Helsinki and Tallinn.

Public-private partnership investments in dry ports – Russian logistics markets and risks

The investments have always been considered as an essential backbone and so-called ‘locomotive’ for the competitive economies. However, in various countries, the state has been put under tight budget constraints for the investments in capital intensive projects. In response to this situation, the cooperation between public and private sector has grown based on public-private mechanism. The promotion of favorable arrangement for collaboration between public and private sectors for the provision of policies, services, and infrastructure in Russia can help to address the problems of dry ports development that neither municipalities nor the private sector can solve alone. Especially, the stimulation of public-private collaboration is significant under the exposure to externalities that affect the magnitude of the risks during all phases of project realization. In these circumstances, the risk in the projects also is becoming increasingly a part of joint research and risk management practice, which is viewed as a key approach, aiming to take active actions on existing global and specific factors of uncertainties. Meanwhile, a relatively little progress has been made on the inclusion of the resilience aspects into the planning process of a dry ports construction that would instruct the capacity planner, on how to mitigate the occurrence of disruptions that may lead to million dollars of losses due to the deviation of the future cash flows from the expected financial flows on the project. The current experience shows that the existing methodological base is developed fragmentary within separate steps of supply chain risk management (SCRM) processes: risk identification, risk evaluation, risk mitigation, risk monitoring and control phases. The lack of the systematic approach hinders the solution of the problem of risk management processes of dry port implementation. Therefore, management of various risks during the investments phases of dry port projects still presents a considerable challenge from the practical and theoretical points of view. In this regard, the given research became a logical continuation of fundamental research, existing in the financial models and theories (e.g., capital asset pricing model and real option theory), as well as provided a complementation for the portfolio theory. The goal of the current study is in the design of methods and models for the facilitation of dry port implementation through the mechanism of public-private partnership on the national market that implies the necessity to mitigate, first and foremost, the shortage of the investments and consequences of risks. The problem of the research was formulated on the ground of the identified contradictions. They rose as a continuation of the trade-off between the opportunities that the investors can gain from the development of terminal business in Russia (i.e. dry port implementation) and risks. As a rule, the higher the investment risk, the greater should be their expected return. However, investors have a different tolerance for the risks. That is why it would be advisable to find an optimum investment. In the given study, the optimum relates to the search for the efficient portfolio, which can provide satisfaction to the investor, depending on its degree of risk aversion. There are many theories and methods in finance, concerning investment choices. Nevertheless, the appropriateness and effectiveness of particular methods should be considered with the allowance of the specifics of the investment projects. For example, the investments in dry ports imply not only the lump sum of financial inflows, but also the long-term payback periods. As a result, capital intensity and longevity of their construction determine the necessity from investors to ensure the return on investment (profitability), along with the rapid return on investment (liquidity), without precluding the fact that the stochastic nature of the project environment is hardly described by the formula-based approach. The current theoretical base for the economic appraisals of the dry port projects more often perceives net present value (NPV) as a technique superior to other decision-making criteria. For example, the portfolio theory, which considers different risk preference of an investor and structures of utility, defines net present value as a better criterion of project appraisal than discounted payback period (DPP). Meanwhile, in business practice, the DPP is more popular. Knowing that the NPV is based on the assumptions of certainty of project life, it cannot be an accurate appraisal approach alone to determine whether or not the project should be accepted for the approval in the environment that is not without of uncertainties. In order to reflect the period or the project’s useful life that is exposed to risks due to changes in political, operational, and financial factors, the second capital budgeting criterion – discounted payback period is profoundly important, particularly for the Russian environment. Those statements represent contradictions that exist in the theory and practice of the applied science. Therefore, it would be desirable to relax the assumptions of portfolio theory and regard DPP as not fewer relevant appraisal approach for the assessment of the investment and risk measure. At the same time, the rationality of the use of both project performance criteria depends on the methods and models, with the help of which these appraisal approaches are calculated in feasibility studies. The deterministic methods cannot ensure the required precision of the results, while the stochastic models guarantee the sufficient level of the accuracy and reliability of the obtained results, providing that the risks are properly identified, evaluated, and mitigated. Otherwise, the project performance indicators may not be confirmed during the phase of project realization. For instance, the economic and political instability can result in the undoing of hard-earned gains, leading to the need for the attraction of the additional finances for the project. The sources of the alternative investments, as well as supportive mitigation strategies, can be studied during the initial phases of project development. During this period, the effectiveness of the investments undertakings can also be improved by the inclusion of the various investors, e.g. Russian Railways’ enterprises and other private companies in the dry port projects. However, the evaluation of the effectiveness of the participation of different investors in the project lack the methods and models that would permit doing the particular feasibility study, foreseeing the quantitative characteristics of risks and their mitigation strategies, which can meet the tolerance of the investors to the risks. For this reason, the research proposes a combination of Monte Carlo method, discounted cash flow technique, the theory of real options, and portfolio theory via a system dynamics simulation approach. The use of this methodology allows for comprehensive risk management process of dry port development to cover all aspects of risk identification, risk evaluation, risk mitigation, risk monitoring, and control phases. A designed system dynamics model can be recommended for the decision-makers on the dry port projects that are financed via a public-private partnership. It permits investors to make a decision appraisal based on random variables of net present value and discounted payback period, depending on different risks factors, e.g. revenue risks, land acquisition risks, traffic volume risks, construction hazards, and political risks. In this case, the statistical mean is used for the explication of the expected value of the DPP and NPV; the standard deviation is proposed as a characteristic of risks, while the elasticity coefficient is applied for rating of risks. Additionally, the risk of failure of project investments and guaranteed recoupment of capital investment can be considered with the help of the model. On the whole, the application of these modern methods of simulation creates preconditions for the controlling of the process of dry port development, i.e. making managerial changes and identifying the most stable parameters that contribute to the optimal alternative scenarios of the project realization in the uncertain environment. System dynamics model allows analyzing the interactions in the most complex mechanism of risk management process of the dry ports development and making proposals for the improvement of the effectiveness of the investments via an estimation of different risk management strategies. For the comparison and ranking of these alternatives in their order of preference to the investor, the proposed indicators of the efficiency of the investments, concerning the NPV, DPP, and coefficient of variation, can be used. Thus, rational investors, who averse to taking increased risks unless they are compensated by the commensurate increase in the expected utility of a risky prospect of dry port development, can be guided by the deduced marginal utility of investments. It is computed on the ground of the results from the system dynamics model. In conclusion, the outlined theoretical and practical implications for the management of risks, which are the key characteristics of public-private partnerships, can help analysts and planning managers in budget decision-making, substantially alleviating the effect from various risks and avoiding unnecessary cost overruns in dry port projects.