Development and application of a predictive model of freshwater fish assemblage composition to evaluate river health in eastern Australia

Multivariate predictive models are widely used tools for assessment of aquatic ecosystem health and models have been successfully developed for the prediction and assessment of aquatic macroinvertebrates, diatoms, local stream habitat features and fish. We evaluated the ability of a modelling method based on the River InVertebrate Prediction and Classification System (RIVPACS) to accurately predict freshwater fish assemblage composition and assess aquatic ecosystem health in rivers and streams of south-eastern Queensland, Australia. The predictive model was developed, validated and tested in a region of comparatively high environmental variability due to the unpredictable nature of rainfall and river discharge. The model was concluded to provide sufficiently accurate and precise predictions of species composition and was sensitive enough to distinguish test sites impacted by several common types of human disturbance (particularly impacts associated with catchment land use and associated local riparian, in-stream habitat and water quality degradation). The total number of fish species available for prediction was low in comparison to similar applications of multivariate predictive models based on other indicator groups, yet the accuracy and precision of our model was comparable to outcomes from such studies. In addition, our model developed for sites sampled on one occasion and in one season only (winter), was able to accurately predict fish assemblage composition at sites sampled during other seasons and years, provided that they were not subject to unusually extreme environmental conditions (e.g. extended periods of low flow that restricted fish movement or resulted in habitat desiccation and local fish extinctions).

A disaggregate discrete choice model of transportation demand by elderly and disabled people in rural Virginia

This paper uses a correlated multinomial logit model and a Poisson regression model to measure the factors affecting demand for different types of transportation by elderly and disabled people in rural Virginia. The major results are: (a) A paratransit system providing door-to-door service is highly valued by transportation-handicapped people; (b) Taxis are probably a potential but inferior alternative even when subsidized; (c) Buses are a poor alternative, especially in rural areas where distances to bus stops may be long; (d) Making buses handicap-accessible would have a statistically significant but small effect on mode choice; (e) Demand is price inelastic; and (f) The total number of trips taken is insensitive to mode availability and characteristics. These results suggest that transportation-handicapped people take a limited number of trips. Those they do take are in some sense necessary (given the low elasticity with respect to mode price or availability). People will substitute away from relying upon others when appropriate transportation is available, at least to some degree. But such transportation needs to be flexible enough to meet the needs of the people involved.

Cohabitation, marriage, and divorce in a model of match quality

The objective of this research is to further our understanding of how and why individuals enter and leave coresidential relationships. We develop and estimate an economic model of nonmarital cohabitation, marriage, and divorce that is consistent with current data on the formation and dissolution of relationships. Jovanovic's (Journal of Political Economy 87 (1979), 972-90) theoretical matching model is extended to help explain household formation and dissolution behavior. Implications of the model reveal what factors influence the decision to start a relationship, what form this relationship will take, and the relative stability of the various types of unions. The structural parameters of the model are estimated using longitudinal data from a sample of female high school seniors from the United States. New numerical methods are developed to reduce computational costs associated with estimation. The empirical results have interesting interpretations given the structural model. They show that a significant cause of cohabitation is the need to learn about potential partners and to hedge against future bad shocks. The estimated parameters are used to conduct several comparative dynamic experiments. For example, we show that policy experiments changing the cost of divorce have little effect on relationship choices.

A model of a large-area planar plasma producer based on surface wave propagation in a plasma-metal structure with a dielectric sheath

A theoretical model of a large-area planar plasma producer based on surface wave (SW) propagation in a plasma-metal structure with a dielectric sheath is presented. The SW which produces and sustains the microwave gas discharge in the planar structure propagates along an external magnetic field and possesses an eigenfrequency within the range between electron cyclotron and electron plasma frequencies. The spatial distributions of the produced plasma density, electromagnetic fields, energy flow density, phase velocity and reverse skin depth of the SW are obtained analytically and numerically.

Spatially averaged model of complex-plasma discharge with self-consistent electron energy distribution

A global, or averaged, model for complex low-pressure argon discharge plasmas containing dust grains is presented. The model consists of particle and power balance equations taking into account power loss on the dust grains and the discharge wall. The electron energy distribution is determined by a Boltzmann equation. The effects of the dust and the external conditions, such as the input power and neutral gas pressure, on the electron energy distribution, the electron temperature, the electron and ion number densities, and the dust charge are investigated. It is found that the dust subsystem can strongly affect the stationary state of the discharge by dynamically modifying the electron energy distribution, the electron temperature, the creation and loss of the plasma particles, as well as the power deposition. In particular, the power loss to the dust grains can take up a significant portion of the input power, often even exceeding the loss to the wall.

A linear-elastic model of anisotropic tumour growth

This paper examines the effect of anisotropic growth on the evolution of mechanical stresses in a linear-elastic model of a growing, avascular tumour. This represents an important improvement on previous linear-elastic models of tissue growth since it has been shown recently that spatially-varying isotropic growth of linear-elastic tissues does not afford the necessary stress-relaxation for a steady-state stress distribution upon reaching a nutrient-regulated equilibrium size. Time-dependent numerical solutions are developed using a Lax-Wendroff scheme, which show the evolution of the tissue stress distributions over a period of growth until a steady-state is reached. These results are compared with the steady-state solutions predicted by the model equations, and key parameters influencing these steady-state distributions are identified. Recommendations for further extensions and applications of this model are proposed.

A hierarchical model of goal directed navigation selects trajectories in a visual environment

We have developed a Hierarchical Look-Ahead Trajectory Model (HiLAM) that incorporates the firing pattern of medial entorhinal grid cells in a planning circuit that includes interactions with hippocampus and prefrontal cortex. We show the model’s flexibility in representing large real world environments using odometry information obtained from challenging video sequences. We acquire the visual data from a camera mounted on a small tele-operated vehicle. The camera has a panoramic field of view with its focal point approximately 5 cm above the ground level, similar to what would be expected from a rat’s point of view. Using established algorithms for calculating perceptual speed from the apparent rate of visual change over time, we generate raw dead reckoning information which loses spatial fidelity over time due to error accumulation. We rectify the loss of fidelity by exploiting the loop-closure detection ability of a biologically inspired, robot navigation model termed RatSLAM. The rectified motion information serves as a velocity input to the HiLAM to encode the environment in the form of grid cell and place cell maps. Finally, we show goal directed path planning results of HiLAM in two different environments, an indoor square maze used in rodent experiments and an outdoor arena more than two orders of magnitude larger than the indoor maze. Together these results bridge for the first time the gap between higher fidelity bio-inspired navigation models (HiLAM) and more abstracted but highly functional bio-inspired robotic mapping systems (RatSLAM), and move from simulated environments into real-world studies in rodent-sized arenas and beyond.

Computational model of membrane fission catalyzed by ESCRT-III

ESCRT-III proteins catalyze membrane fission during multi vesicular body biogenesis, budding of some enveloped viruses and cell division. We suggest and analyze a novel mechanism of membrane fission by the mammalian ESCRT-III subunits CHMP2 and CHMP3. We propose that the CHMP2-CHMP3 complexes self-assemble into hemi-spherical dome-like structures within the necks of the initial membrane buds generated by CHMP4 filaments. The dome formation is accompanied by the membrane attachment to the dome surface, which drives narrowing of the membrane neck and accumulation of the elastic stresses leading, ultimately, to the neck fission. Based on the bending elastic model of lipid bilayers, we determine the degree of the membrane attachment to the dome enabling the neck fission and compute the required values of the protein-membrane binding energy. We estimate the feasible values of this energy and predict a high efficiency for the CHMP2-CHMP3 complexes in mediating membrane fission. We support the computational model by electron tomography imaging of CHMP2-CHMP3 assemblies in vitro. We predict a high efficiency for the CHMP2-CHMP3 complexes in mediating membrane fission.

A tissue-engineered humanised xenograft model of human breast cancer-induced bone metastasis and bone colonisation

This thesis focuses on the development of a humanised mouse model to investigate human breast cancer metastasis to bone, an incurable disease presenting a major medical challenge in our society. The method is based on tissue-engineered constructs with human cells that generate a human bone-like organ within mice. This novel platform is further applied to mimic human-specific mechanisms of breast cancer metastasis and growth in human bone, and in particular the role of specific cell adhesion molecules in this process is closely investigated.

Flupirtine enhances the anti-hyperalgesic effects of morphine in a rat model of prostate bone metastasis

Objective Current treatments for cancer pain are often inadequate, particularly when metastasis to bone is involved. The addition to the treatment regimen of another drug that has a complementary analgesic effect may increase the overall analgesia without the necessity to increase doses, thus avoiding dose-related side effects. This project investigated the synergistic effect of the addition of the potassium channel (KCNQ2–3) modulator flupirtine to morphine treatment in a rat model of prostate cancer-induced bone pain. Design Syngeneic prostate cancer cells were injected into the right tibia of male Wistar rats under anesthesia. This led to expanding tumor within the bone in 2 weeks, together with the concurrent development of hyperalgesia to noxious heat. Paw withdrawal thresholds from noxious heat were measured before and after the maximum non-sedating doses of morphine and flupirtine given alone and in combinations. Dose-response curves for morphine (0.13–5.0 mg/kg ip) and flupirtine (1.25–10.0 mg/kg ip) given alone and in fixed-dose combinations were plotted and subjected to an isobolographic analysis. Results Both morphine (ED50 = 0.74 mg/kg) and flupirtine (ED50 = 3.32 mg/kg) caused dose-related anti-hyperalgesia at doses that did not cause sedation. Isobolographic analysis revealed that there was a synergistic interaction between flupirtine and morphine. Addition of flupirtine to morphine treatment improved morphine anti-hyperalgesia, and resulted in the reversal of cancer-induced heat hyperalgesia. Conclusions These results suggest that flupirtine in combination with morphine may be useful clinically to provide better analgesia at lower morphine doses in the management of pain caused by tumors growing in bone.

Intravenous injection of leconotide, an omega conotoxin : synergistic antihyperalgesic effects with morphine in a rat model of bone cancer pain

Objective.  Leconotide (CVID, AM336, CNSB004) is an omega conopeptide similar to ziconotide, which blocks voltage sensitive calcium channels. However, unlike ziconotide, which must be administered intrathecally, leconotide can be given intravenously because it is less toxic. This study investigated the antihyperalgesic potency of leconotide given intravenously alone and in combinations with morphine-administered intraperitoneally, in a rat model of bone cancer pain. Design.  Syngeneic rat prostate cancer cells AT3B-1 were injected into one tibia of male Wistar rats. The tumor expanded within the bone causing hyperalgesia to heat applied to the ipsilateral hind paw. Measurements were made of the maximum dose (MD) of morphine and leconotide given alone and in combinations that caused no effect in an open-field activity monitor, rotarod, and blood pressure and heart rate measurements. Paw withdrawal thresholds from noxious heat were measured. Dose response curves for morphine (0.312–5.0 mg/kg intraperitoneal) and leconotide (0.002–200 µg/kg intravenous) given alone were plotted and responses compared with those caused by morphine and leconotide in combinations. Results.  Leconotide caused minimal antihyperalgesic effects when administered alone. Morphine given alone intraperitoneally caused dose-related antihyperalgesic effects (ED50 = 2.40 ± 1.24 mg/kg), which were increased by coadministration of leconotide 20 µg/kg (morphine ED50 = 0.16 ± 1.30 mg/kg); 0.2 µg/kg (morphine ED50 = 0.39 ± 1.27 mg/kg); and 0.02 µg/kg (morphine ED50 = 1.24 ± 1.30 mg/kg). Conclusions.  Leconotide caused a significant increase in reversal by morphine of the bone cancer-induced hyperalgesia without increasing the side effect profile of either drug. Clinical Implication.  Translation into clinical practice of the method of analgesia described here will improve the quantity and quality of analgesia in patients with bone metastases. The use of an ordinary parenteral route for administration of the calcium channel blocker (leconotide) at low dose opens up the technique to large numbers of patients who could not have an intrathecal catheter for drug administration. Furthermore, the potentiating synergistic effect with morphine on hyperalgesia without increased side effects will lead to greater analgesia with improved quality of life.

Novel solutions for a model of wound healing angiogenesis

We prove the existence of novel, shock-fronted travelling wave solutions to a model of wound healing angiogenesis studied in Pettet et al (2000 IMA J. Math. App. Med. 17 395–413) assuming two conjectures hold. In the previous work, the authors showed that for certain parameter values, a heteroclinic orbit in the phase plane representing a smooth travelling wave solution exists. However, upon varying one of the parameters, the heteroclinic orbit was destroyed, or rather cut-off, by a wall of singularities in the phase plane. As a result, they concluded that under this parameter regime no travelling wave solutions existed. Using techniques from geometric singular perturbation theory and canard theory, we show that a travelling wave solution actually still exists for this parameter regime. We construct a heteroclinic orbit passing through the wall of singularities via a folded saddle canard point onto a repelling slow manifold. The orbit leaves this manifold via the fast dynamics and lands on the attracting slow manifold, finally connecting to its end state. This new travelling wave is no longer smooth but exhibits a sharp front or shock. Finally, we identify regions in parameter space where we expect that similar solutions exist. Moreover, we discuss the possibility of more exotic solutions.