Robustness in health research : do differences in health measures, techniques, and time frame matter?

Survey-based health research is in a boom phase following an increased amount of health spending in OECD countries and the interest in ageing. A general characteristic of survey-based health research is its diversity. Different studies are based on different health questions in different datasets; they use different statistical techniques; they differ in whether they approach health from an ordinal or cardinal perspective; and they differ in whether they measure short-term or long-term effects. The question in this paper is simple: do these differences matter for the findings? We investigate the effects of life-style choices (drinking, smoking, exercise) and income on six measures of health in the US Health and Retirement Study (HRS) between 1992 and 2002: (1) self-assessed general health status, (2) problems with undertaking daily tasks and chores, (3) mental health indicators, (4) BMI, (5) the presence of serious long-term health conditions, and (6) mortality. We compare ordinal models with cardinal models; we compare models with fixed effects to models without fixed-effects; and we compare short-term effects to long-term effects. We find considerable variation in the impact of different determinants on our chosen health outcome measures; we find that it matters whether ordinality or cardinality is assumed; we find substantial differences between estimates that account for fixed effects versus those that do not; and we find that short-run and long-run effects differ greatly. All this implies that health is an even more complicated notion than hitherto thought, defying generalizations from one measure to the others or one methodology to another.

Numerical simulation of the Riesz fractional diffusion equation with a nonlinear source term

In this paper, A Riesz fractional diffusion equation with a nonlinear source term (RFDE-NST) is considered. This equation is commonly used to model the growth and spreading of biological species. According to the equivalent of the Riemann-Liouville(R-L) and Gr¨unwald-Letnikov(GL) fractional derivative definitions, an implicit difference approximation (IFDA) for the RFDE-NST is derived. We prove the IFDA is unconditionally stable and convergent. In order to evaluate the efficiency of the IFDA, a comparison with a fractional method of lines (FMOL) is used. Finally, two numerical examples are presented to show that the numerical results are in good agreement with our theoretical analysis.

Eyelid pressure on the cornea

The eyelids play an important role in lubricating and protecting the surface of the eye. Each blink serves to spread fresh tears, remove debris and replenish the smooth optical surface of the eye. Yet little is known about how the eyelids contact the ocular surface and what pressure distribution exists between the eyelids and cornea. As the principal refractive component of the eye, the cornea is a major element of the eye’s optics. The optical properties of the cornea are known to be susceptible to the pressure exerted by the eyelids. Abnormal eyelids, due to disease, have altered pressure on the ocular surface due to changes in the shape, thickness or position of the eyelids. Normal eyelids also cause corneal distortions that are most often noticed when they are resting closer to the corneal centre (for example during reading). There were many reports of monocular diplopia after reading due to corneal distortion, but prior to videokeratoscopes these localised changes could not be measured. This thesis has measured the influence of eyelid pressure on the cornea after short-term near tasks and techniques were developed to quantify eyelid pressure and its distribution. The profile of the wave-like eyelid-induced corneal changes and the refractive effects of these distortions were investigated. Corneal topography changes due to both the upper and lower eyelids were measured for four tasks involving two angles of vertical downward gaze (20° and 40°) and two near work tasks (reading and steady fixation). After examining the depth and shape of the corneal changes, conclusions were reached regarding the magnitude and distribution of upper and lower eyelid pressure for these task conditions. The degree of downward gaze appears to alter the upper eyelid pressure on the cornea, with deeper changes occurring after greater angles of downward gaze. Although the lower eyelid was further from the corneal centre in large angles of downward gaze, its effect on the cornea was greater than that of the upper eyelid. Eyelid tilt, curvature, and position were found to be influential in the magnitude of eyelid-induced corneal changes. Refractively these corneal changes are clinically and optically significant with mean spherical and astigmatic changes of about 0.25 D after only 15 minutes of downward gaze (40° reading and steady fixation conditions). Due to the magnitude of these changes, eyelid pressure in downward gaze offers a possible explanation for some of the day-to-day variation observed in refraction. Considering the magnitude of these changes and previous work on their regression, it is recommended that sustained tasks performed in downward gaze should be avoided for at least 30 minutes before corneal and refractive assessment requiring high accuracy. Novel procedures were developed to use a thin (0.17 mm) tactile piezoresistive pressure sensor mounted on a rigid contact lens to measure eyelid pressure. A hydrostatic calibration system was constructed to convert raw digital output of the sensors to actual pressure units. Conditioning the sensor prior to use regulated the measurement response and sensor output was found to stabilise about 10 seconds after loading. The influences of various external factors on sensor output were studied. While the sensor output drifted slightly over several hours, it was not significant over the measurement time of 30 seconds used for eyelid pressure, as long as the length of the calibration and measurement recordings were matched. The error associated with calibrating at room temperature but measuring at ocular surface temperature led to a very small overestimation of pressure. To optimally position the sensor-contact lens combination under the eyelid margin, an in vivo measurement apparatus was constructed. Using this system, eyelid pressure increases were observed when the upper eyelid was placed on the sensor and a significant increase was apparent when the eyelid pressure was increased by pulling the upper eyelid tighter against the eye. For a group of young adult subjects, upper eyelid pressure was measured using this piezoresistive sensor system. Three models of contact between the eyelid and ocular surface were used to calibrate the pressure readings. The first model assumed contact between the eyelid and pressure sensor over more than the pressure cell width of 1.14 mm. Using thin pressure sensitive carbon paper placed under the eyelid, a contact imprint was measured and this width used for the second model of contact. Lastly as Marx’s line has been implicated as the region of contact with the ocular surface, its width was measured and used as the region of contact for the third model. The mean eyelid pressures calculated using these three models for the group of young subjects were 3.8 ± 0.7 mmHg (whole cell), 8.0 ± 3.4 mmHg (imprint width) and 55 ± 26 mmHg (Marx’s line). The carbon imprints using Pressurex-micro confirmed previous suggestions that a band of the eyelid margin has primary contact with the ocular surface and provided the best estimate of the contact region and hence eyelid pressure. Although it is difficult to directly compare the results with previous eyelid pressure measurement attempts, the eyelid pressure calculated using this model was slightly higher than previous manometer measurements but showed good agreement with the eyelid force estimated using an eyelid tensiometer. The work described in this thesis has shown that the eyelids have a significant influence on corneal shape, even after short-term tasks (15 minutes). Instrumentation was developed using piezoresistive sensors to measure eyelid pressure. Measurements for the upper eyelid combined with estimates of the contact region between the cornea and the eyelid enabled quantification of the upper eyelid pressure for a group of young adult subjects. These techniques will allow further investigation of the interaction between the eyelids and the surface of the eye.

Variation of the Stiles-Crawford effect with accommodation and myopia

Background: Mechanical forces either due to accommodation or myopia may stretch the retina and/or cause shear between the retina and choroid. This can be investigated by making use of the Stiles-Crawford effect (SCE), which is the phenomenon of light changing in apparent brightness as it enters through different positions in the pupil. The SCE can be measured by psychophysical and objective techniques, with the SCE parameters being directionality (rate of change across the pupil), and orientation (the location of peak sensitivity in the pupil). Aims: 1. To study the changes in foveal SCE with accommodation in emmetropes and myopes using a subjective (psychophysical) technique. 2. To develop and evaluate a quick objective technique of measuring the SCE using the multifocal electroretinogram. Methods: The SCE was measured in 6 young emmetropes and 6 young myopes for up to 8 D accommodation stimulus with a psychophysical technique and its variants. An objective technique using the multifocal electroretinogram was developed and evaluated with 5 emmetropes. Results: Using the psychophysical technique, the SCE directionality increased by similar amounts in both emmetropes and myopes as accommodation increased, with an increase of 15-20% with 6 D of accommodation. However, there were no significant orientation changes. Additional measurements showed that most of the change in the directionality was probably an artefact of optical factors such as higher-order aberrations and accommodative lag rather a true effect of accommodation. The multifocal technique demonstrated the presence of the SCE, but results were noisy and too variable to detect any changes in SCE directionality or orientation with accommodation. Conclusion: There is little true change in the SCE with accommodation responses up to 6 D in either emmetropes or myopes, although it is possible that substantial changes might occur at very high accommodation levels. The objective technique using the multifocal electroretinogram was quicker and less demanding for the subjects than the psychophysical technique, but as implemented in this thesis, it is not a reliable method of measuring the SCE.

A short-term evaluation of a school-based early adolescent injury prevention program

This paper reports on the development of a school-based intervention to reduce risk-taking and associated injuries. There is limited but important evidence that intervention design should ensure participation does not lead to an increase in target risk behaviors with some studies in alcohol and drug prevention finding unexpected negative effects. The short-term evaluation of Skills for Preventing Injury in Youth (SPIY) examined change in interpersonal violence, alcohol and transport-related risks. Intervention (n = 360) and comparison (n = 180) students were surveyed pre/post-intervention. A qualitative analysis based on focus groups (70 students) explored experiences of change. Findings indicate significant positive changes reinforced by students’ reports. A decrease in reported risk-taking for the intervention group and an increase in the comparison group were observed. These findings endorse SPIY as a useful curriculum approach to reducing injuries and lend support to the future conduct of a long-term outcome evaluation.

Latitude variation in pancreatic cancer mortality in Australia

Objectives: Ecological studies support the hypothesis that there is an association between vitamin D and pancreatic cancer (PaCa) mortality, but observational studies are somewhat conflicting. We sought to contribute further data to this issue by analyzing the differences in PaCa mortality across the eastern states of Australia and investigating if there is a role of vitamin D-effective ultraviolet radiation (DUVR), which is related to latitude. ---------- Methods: Mortality data from 1968 to 2005 were sourced from the Australian General Record of Incidence and Mortality books. Negative binomial models were fitted to calculate the association between state and PaCa mortality. Clear sky monthly DUVR in each capital city was also modeled. ---------- Results: Mortality from PaCa was 10% higher in southern states than in Queensland, with those in Victoria recording the highest mortality risk (relative risk, 1.13; 95% confidence interval, 1.09-1.17). We found a highly significant association between DUVR and PaCa mortality, with an estimated 1.5% decrease in the risk per 10-kJ/m2 increase in yearly DUVR. ---------- Conclusions: These data show an association between latitude, DUVR, and PaCa mortality. Although this study cannot be used to infer causality, it supports the need for further investigations of a possible role of vitamin D in PaCa etiology.

A comparison of executive function in very preterm and term infants at 8 months corrected age

Executive function (EF) emerges in infancy and continues to develop throughout childhood. Executive dysfunction is believed to contribute to learning and attention problems in children at school age. Children born very preterm are more prone to these problems than their full-term peers.

Methods and preliminary results for a data linkage project to determine long-term survival after intensive care unit admission

Aims: To describe a local data linkage project to match hospital data with the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (AIHW) National Death Index (NDI) to assess longterm outcomes of intensive care unit patients. Methods: Data were obtained from hospital intensive care and cardiac surgery databases on all patients aged 18 years and over admitted to either of two intensive care units at a tertiary-referral hospital between 1 January 1994 and 31 December 2005. Date of death was obtained from the AIHW NDI by probabilistic software matching, in addition to manual checking through hospital databases and other sources. Survival was calculated from time of ICU admission, with a censoring date of 14 February 2007. Data for patients with multiple hospital admissions requiring intensive care were analysed only from the first admission. Summary and descriptive statistics were used for preliminary data analysis. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis was used to analyse factors determining long-term survival. Results: During the study period, 21 415 unique patients had 22 552 hospital admissions that included an ICU admission; 19 058 surgical procedures were performed with a total of 20 092 ICU admissions. There were 4936 deaths. Median follow-up was 6.2 years, totalling 134 203 patient years. The casemix was predominantly cardiac surgery (80%), followed by cardiac medical (6%), and other medical (4%). The unadjusted survival at 1, 5 and 10 years was 97%, 84% and 70%, respectively. The 1-year survival ranged from 97% for cardiac surgery to 36% for cardiac arrest. An APACHE II score was available for 16 877 patients. In those discharged alive from hospital, the 1, 5 and 10-year survival varied with discharge location. Conclusions: ICU-based linkage projects are feasible to determine long-term outcomes of ICU patients

Experimental investigation of a turbulent reacting plume

An experimental investigation has been made of a round, non-buoyant plume of nitric oxide, NO, in a turbulent grid flow of ozone, 03, using the Turbulent Smog Chamber at the University of Sydney. The measurements have been made at a resolution not previously reported in the literature. The reaction is conducted at non-equilibrium so there is significant interaction between turbulent mixing and chemical reaction. The plume has been characterized by a set of constant initial reactant concentration measurements consisting of radial profiles at various axial locations. Whole plume behaviour can thus be characterized and parameters are selected for a second set of fixed physical location measurements where the effects of varying the initial reactant concentrations are investigated. Careful experiment design and specially developed chemilurninescent analysers, which measure fluctuating concentrations of reactive scalars, ensure that spatial and temporal resolutions are adequate to measure the quantities of interest. Conserved scalar theory is used to define a conserved scalar from the measured reactive scalars and to define frozen, equilibrium and reaction dominated cases for the reactive scalars. Reactive scalar means and the mean reaction rate are bounded by frozen and equilibrium limits but this is not always the case for the reactant variances and covariances. The plume reactant statistics are closer to the equilibrium limit than those for the ambient reactant. The covariance term in the mean reaction rate is found to be negative and significant for all measurements made. The Toor closure was found to overestimate the mean reaction rate by 15 to 65%. Gradient model turbulent diffusivities had significant scatter and were not observed to be affected by reaction. The ratio of turbulent diffusivities for the conserved scalar mean and that for the r.m.s. was found to be approximately 1. Estimates of the ratio of the dissipation timescales of around 2 were found downstream. Estimates of the correlation coefficient between the conserved scalar and its dissipation (parallel to the mean flow) were found to be between 0.25 and the significant value of 0.5. Scalar dissipations for non-reactive and reactive scalars were found to be significantly different. Conditional statistics are found to be a useful way of investigating the reactive behaviour of the plume, effectively decoupling the interaction of chemical reaction and turbulent mixing. It is found that conditional reactive scalar means lack significant transverse dependence as has previously been found theoretically by Klimenko (1995). It is also found that conditional variance around the conditional reactive scalar means is relatively small, simplifying the closure for the conditional reaction rate. These properties are important for the Conditional Moment Closure (CMC) model for turbulent reacting flows recently proposed by Klimenko (1990) and Bilger (1993). Preliminary CMC model calculations are carried out for this flow using a simple model for the conditional scalar dissipation. Model predictions and measured conditional reactive scalar means compare favorably. The reaction dominated limit is found to indicate the maximum reactedness of a reactive scalar and is a limiting case of the CMC model. Conventional (unconditional) reactive scalar means obtained from the preliminary CMC predictions using the conserved scalar p.d.f. compare favorably with those found from experiment except where measuring position is relatively far upstream of the stoichiometric distance. Recommendations include applying a full CMC model to the flow and investigations both of the less significant terms in the conditional mean species equation and the small variation of the conditional mean with radius. Forms for the p.d.f.s, in addition to those found from experiments, could be useful for extending the CMC model to reactive flows in the atmosphere.

Micro-family-owned business : transitory survival mechanism or long term wealth creator?

Principal Topic: Entrepreneurship is key to employment, innovation and growth (Acs & Mueller, 2008), and as such, has been the subject of tremendous research in both the economic and management literatures since Solow (1957), Schumpeter (1934, 1943), and Penrose (1959). The presence of entrepreneurs in the economy is a key factor in the success or failure of countries to grow (Audretsch and Thurik, 2001; Dejardin, 2001). Further studies focus on the conditions of existence of entrepreneurship, influential factors invoked are historical, cultural, social, institutional, or purely economic (North, 1997; Thurik 1996 & 1999). Of particular interest, beyond the reasons behind the existence of entrepreneurship, are entrepreneurial survival and good ''performance'' factors. Using cross-country firm data analysis, La Porta & Schleifer (2008) confirm that informal micro-businesses provide on average half of all economic activity in developing countries. They find that these are utterly unproductive compared to formal firms, and conclude that the informal sector serves as a social security net ''keep[ing] millions of people alive, but disappearing over time'' (abstract). Robison (1986), Hill (1996, 1997) posit that the Indonesian government under Suharto always pointed to the lack of indigenous entrepreneurship , thereby motivating the nationalisation of all industries. Furthermore, the same literature also points to the fact that small businesses were mostly left out of development programmes because they were supposed less productive and having less productivity potential than larger ones. Vial (2008) challenges this view and shows that small firms represent about 70% of firms, 12% of total output, but contribute to 25% of total factor productivity growth on average over the period 1975-94 in the industrial sector (Table 10, p.316). ---------- Methodology/Key Propositions: A review of the empirical literature points at several under-researched questions. Firstly, we assess whether there is, evidence of small family-business entrepreneurship in Indonesia. Secondly, we examine and present the characteristics of these enterprises, along with the size of the sector, and its dynamics. Thirdly, we study whether these enterprises underperform compared to the larger scale industrial sector, as it is suggested in the literature. We reconsider performance measurements for micro-family owned businesses. We suggest that, beside productivity measures, performance could be appraised by both the survival probability of the firm, and by the amount of household assets formation. We compare micro-family-owned and larger industrial firms' survival probabilities after the 1997 crisis, their capital productivity, then compare household assets of families involved in business with those who do not. Finally, we examine human and social capital as moderators of enterprises' performance. In particular, we assess whether a higher level of education and community participation have an effect on the likelihood of running a family business, and whether it has an impact on households' assets level. We use the IFLS database compiled and published by RAND Corporation. The data is a rich community, households, and individuals panel dataset in four waves: 1993, 1997, 2000, 2007. We now focus on the waves 1997 and 2000 in order to investigate entrepreneurship behaviours in turbulent times, i.e. the 1997 Asian crisis. We use aggregate individual data, and focus on households data in order to study micro-family-owned businesses. IFLS data covers roughly 7,600 households in 1997 and over 10,000 households in 2000, with about 95% of 1997 households re-interviewed in 2000. Households were interviewed in 13 of the 27 provinces as defined before 2001. Those 13 provinces were targeted because accounting for 83% of the population. A full description of the data is provided in Frankenberg and Thomas (2000), and Strauss et alii (2004). We deflate all monetary values in Rupiah with the World Development Indicators Consumer Price Index base 100 in 2000. ---------- Results and Implications: We find that in Indonesia, entrepreneurship is widespread and two thirds of households hold one or several family businesses. In rural areas, in 2000, 75% of households run one or several businesses. The proportion of households holding both a farm and a non farm business is higher in rural areas, underlining the reliance of rural households on self-employment, especially after the crisis. Those businesses come in various sizes from very small to larger ones. The median business production value represents less than the annual national minimum wage. Figures show that at least 75% of farm businesses produce less than the annual minimum wage, with non farm businesses being more numerous to produce the minimum wage. However, this is only one part of the story, as production is not the only ''output'' or effect of the business. We show that the survival rate of those businesses ranks between 70 and 82% after the 1997 crisis, which contrasts with the 67% survival rate for the formal industrial sector (Ter Wengel & Rodriguez, 2006). Micro Family Owned Businesses might be relatively small in terms of production, they also provide stability in times of crisis. For those businesses that provide business assets figures, we show that capital productivity is fairly high, with rates that are ten times higher for non farm businesses. Results show that households running a business have larger family assets, and households are better off in urban areas. We run a panel logit model in order to test the effect of human and social capital on the existence of businesses among households. We find that non farm businesses are more likely to appear in households with higher human and social capital situated in urban areas. Farm businesses are more likely to appear in lower human capital and rural contexts, while still being supported by community participation. The estimation of our panel data model confirm that households are more likely to have higher family assets if situated in urban area, the higher the education level, the larger the assets, and running a business increase the likelihood of having larger assets. This is especially true for non farm businesses that have a clearly larger and more significant effect on assets than farm businesses. Finally, social capital in the form of community participation also has a positive effect on assets. Those results confirm the existence of a strong entrepreneurship culture among Indonesian households. Investigating survival rates also shows that those businesses are quite stable, even in the face of a violent crisis such as the 1997 one, and as a result, can provide a safety net. Finally, considering household assets - the returns of business to the household, rather than profit or productivity - the returns of business to itself, shows that households running a business are better off. While we demonstrate that uman and social capital are key to business existence, survival and performance, those results open avenues for further research regarding the factors that could hamper growth of those businesses in terms of output and employment.

Bootstrap approaches for estimation and confidence intervals of long term memory processes

In this work, we investigate an alternative bootstrap approach based on a result of Ramsey [F.L. Ramsey, Characterization of the partial autocorrelation function, Ann. Statist. 2 (1974), pp. 1296-1301] and on the Durbin-Levinson algorithm to obtain a surrogate series from linear Gaussian processes with long range dependence. We compare this bootstrap method with other existing procedures in a wide Monte Carlo experiment by estimating, parametrically and semi-parametrically, the memory parameter d. We consider Gaussian and non-Gaussian processes to prove the robustness of the method to deviations from normality. The approach is also useful to estimate confidence intervals for the memory parameter d by improving the coverage level of the interval.

Estimating short and long-term residential demand for electricity : new evidence from Sri Lanka

This study investigates the short-run dynamics and long-run equilibrium relationship between residential electricity demand and factors influencing demand - per capita income, price of electricity, price of kerosene oil and price of liquefied petroleum gas - using annual data for Sri Lanka for the period, 1960-2007. The study uses unit root, cointegration and error-correction models. The long-run demand elasticities of income, own price and price of kerosene oil (substitute) were estimated to be 0.78, - 0.62, and 0.14 respectively. The short-run elasticities for the same variables were estimated to be 032, - 0.16 and 0.10 respectively. Liquefied petroleum (LP) gas is a substitute for electricity only in the short-run with an elasticity 0.09. The main findings of the paper support the following (1) increasing the price of electricity is not the most effective tool to reduce electricity consumption (2) existing subsidies on electricity consumption can be removed without reducing government revenue (3) the long-run income elasticity of demand shows that any future increase in household incomes is likely to significantly increase the demand for electricity and(4) any power generation plans which consider only current per capita consumption and population growth should be revised taking into account the potential future income increases in order to avoid power shortages ill the country.

Framework for the long-term operation of a mobile robot via the Internet

This paper describes an autonomous docking system and web interface that allows long-term unaided use of a sophisticated robot by untrained web users. These systems have been applied to the biologically inspired RatSLAM system as a foundation for testing both its long-term stability and its practicality. While docking and web interface systems already exist, this system allows for a significantly larger margin of error in docking accuracy due to the mechanical design, thereby increasing robustness against navigational errors. Also a standard vision sensor is used for both long-range and short-range docking, compared to the many systems that require both omni-directional cameras and high resolution Laser range finders for navigation. The web interface has been designed to accommodate the significant delays experienced on the Internet, and to facilitate the non- Cartesian operation of the RatSLAM system.

Springbrook : Challenges in developing a long-term, rainforest wireless sensor network

We describe the design, development and learnings from the first phase of a rainforest ecological sensor network at Springbrook - part of a World Heritage precinct in South East Queensland. This first phase is part of a major initiative to develop the capability to provide reliable, long-term monitoring of rainforest ecosystems. We focus in particular on our analysis around energy and communication challenges which need to be solved to allow for reliable, long-term deployments in these types of environments.