Effectiveness of the Brazilian influenza vaccination policy, a systematic review

Since 1999, Brazil has undertaken annual influenza vaccine campaigns, free of charge, targeting the elderly population, health professionals, and immune-deficient patients. We conducted a systematic review of literature in order to evaluate the effectiveness of the initiative. We used the keywords influenza, vaccine, Brazil and effectiveness to search the main databases. Thirty-one studies matched our inclusion and exclusion criteria. Influenza vaccine coverage among the elderly is high, though not as high as suggested by the official figures. Estimates on effectiveness are scarce. The majority come from ecological studies that show a modest reduction in mortality and hospital admissions due to influenza-related causes. Such reduction is not evident in the North and Northeastern states of Brazil, a finding that is probably related to the different seasonal pattern of influenza in equatorial and tropical regions. Brazilian epidemiologists still owe society better-designed studies addressing the effectiveness of influenza vaccine campaigns.

Interactions between the hydrological cycle and atmospheric chemistry

The land-atmosphere exchange of atmospheric trace gases is sensitive to meteorological conditions and climate change. It contributes in turn to the atmospheric radiative forcing through its effects on tropospheric chemistry. The interactions between the hydrological cycle and atmospheric processes are intricate and often involve different levels of feedbacks. The Earth system model EMAC is used in this thesis to assess the direct role of the land surface components of the terrestrial hydrological cycle in the emissions, deposition and transport of key trace gases that control tropospheric chemistry. It is also used to examine its indirect role in changing the tropospheric chemical composition through the feedbacks between the atmospheric and the terrestrial branches of the hydrological cycle. Selected features of the hydrological cycle in EMAC are evaluated using observations from different data sources. The interactions between precipitation and the water vapor column, from the atmospheric branch of the hydrological cycle, and evapotranspiration, from its terrestrial branch, are assessed specially for tropical regions. The impacts of changes in the land surface hydrology on surface exchanges and the oxidizing chemistry of the atmosphere are assessed through two sensitivity simulations. In the first, a new parametrization for rainfall interception in the densely vegetated areas in the tropics is implemented, and its effects are assessed. The second study involves the application of a soil moisture forcing that replaces the model calculated soil moisture. Both experiments have a large impact on the local hydrological cycle, dry deposition of soluble and insoluble gases, emissions of isoprene through changes in surface temperature and the Planetary Boundary Layer height. Additionally the soil moisture forcing causes changes in local vertical transport and large-scale circulation. The changes in trace gas exchanges affect the oxidation capacity of the atmosphere through changes in OH, O$_3$, NO$_x$ concentrations.

OH- und HO 2-Radikale über dem tropischen Regenwald

Beständig werden Spurenstoffe in die Atmosphäre emittiert, die ihren Ursprung in biogenen oder anthropogenen Quellen haben. Daß es dennoch im allgemeinen nicht zu einer Anreicherung bis hin zu toxischen Konzentrationen kommt, liegt an dem Vermögen der Atmosphäre sich durch Oxidationsprozesse selbst zu reinigen. Eine wichtige Aufgabe kommt dabei dem Hydroxylradikal OH zu, welches tagsüber die Oxidationskapazität der Atmosphäre bestimmt. Hierbei spielen die tropischen Regionen mit einer der höchsten OH-Produktionsraten eine zentrale Rolle. Gleichzeitig sind die tropischen Regenwälder eine bedeutende globale Quelle für Kohlenwasserstoffe, die durch Reaktion mit OH-Radikalen dessen Konzentration und damit die Oxidationskapazität der Atmosphäre herabsetzen. Während der GABRIEL-Meßkampagne 2005 im äquatorialen Südamerika wurde der Einfluß der Regenwaldemissionen auf das HOx-Budget (HOx = OH+HO2) untersucht. Zu diesem Zweck wurde das Radikalmeßinstrument HORUS entwickelt. Im Rahmen dieser Arbeit wurden unterschiedliche Komponenten des Gerätes optimiert, der Meßaufbau ins Flugzeug integriert und Methoden zur Kalibrierung entwickelt. Bei der internationalen Vergleichskampagne HOxComp2005 zeigte HORUS seine Eignung zur Messung von troposphärischen OH- und HO2-Radikalen.rnrnDie durchgeführten HOx-Messungen während der GABRIEL-Meßkampagne sind die ersten ihrer Art, die über einem tropischen Regenwald stattgefunden haben. Im Gegensatz zu den Vorhersagen globaler Modelle wurden unerwartet hohe OH- und HO2-Konzentrationen in der planetaren Grenzschicht des tropischen Regenwalds beobachtet. Der Vergleich der berechneten OH-Produktions- und Verlustraten, die aus dem umfangreichen Datensatz von GABRIEL ermittelt wurden, zeigte, daß hierbei eine wichtige OH-Quelle unberücksichtigt blieb. Mit Hilfe des Boxmodells MECCA, in welchem die gemessenen Daten als Randbedingungen in die Simulationen eingingen, wurden die modellierten OH- und HO2- Konzentrationen im Gleichgewichtszustand den beobachteten Konzentrationen gegenübergestellt. Luftmassen der freien Troposphäre und der maritimen Grenzschicht zeigten eine gute Übereinstimmung zwischen Messung und Modell. Über dem tropischen Regenwald jedoch wurden die beobachteten HOx-Konzentrationen in der planetaren Grenzschicht durch das Modell, vor allem am Nachmittag, signifikant unterschätzt. Dabei lag die Diskrepanz zwischen den beobachteten und simulierten Konzentrationen bei einem mittleren Wert von OHobs/OHmod = 12.2 ± 3.5 und HO2obs/HO2mod = 4.1 ± 1.4. Die Abweichung zwischen Messung und Modell korrelieren hierbei mit der Isoprenkonzentration. Während für niedrige Isoprenmischungsverhältnisse, wie sie über dem Ozean oder in Höhen > 3 km vorherrschten, die Beobachtungen mit den Simulationen innerhalb eines Faktors 1.6±0.7 übereinstimmten, nahm die Unterschätzung durch das Modell für steigende Isoprenmischungsverhältnisse > 200 pptV über dem tropischen Regenwald zu.rnrnDer kondensierte chemische Mechanismus von MECCA wurde mit der ausführlichen Isoprenchemie des ”Master Chemical Mechanism“ überprüft, welches vergleichbare HOx-Konzentrationen lieferte. OH-Simulationen, durchgeführt mit der gemessenen HO2-Konzentration als zusätzliche Randbedingung, zeigten, daß die Konversion zwischen HO2 und OH innerhalb des Modells nicht ausreichend ist. Durch Vernachlässigung der gesamten Isoprenchemie konnte dagegen eine Übereinstimmung zwischen Modell und Messung erreicht werden. Eine OH-Quelle in der gleichen Größenordnung wie die OH-Senke durch Isopren, ist somit zur Beschreibung der beobachteten OH-Konzentration notwendig. Reaktionsmechanismen, die innerhalb der Isoprenchemie die gleiche Anzahl an OH-Radikalen erzeugen wie sie verbrauchen, könnten eine mögliche Ursache sein. Unterschiedliche zusätzliche Reaktionen wurden in die Isoprenabbaumechanismen des Modells implementiert, die zur Erhöhung der OH-Quellstärke führen sollten. Diese bewirkten eine Zunahme der simulierten HO2-Konzentrationen um einen maximalen Faktor von 5 für OH und 2 für HO2. Es wird eine OH-Zyklierungswahrscheinlichkeit r von bis zu 94% gefordert, wie sie für die GABRIEL-Messungen erreicht wurde. Die geringe OH-Zyklierungswahrscheinlichkeit von 38% des Modells zeigte, daß wichtige Zyklierungsvorgänge im chemischen Mechanismus bislang nicht berücksichtigt werden. Zusätzliche Zyklierungsreaktionen innerhalb des Isoprenmechanismus, die auch unter niedrigen NO-Konzentrationen zur Rückbildung von OHRadikalen führen, könnten eine Erklärung für die über dem Regenwald beobachteten hohen OH-Konzentration liefern.rn

Essays on geography and diseases

This dissertation explores how diseases contributed to shape historical institutions and how health and diseases are still affecting modern comparative development. The overarching goal of this investigation is to identify the channels linking geographic suitability to diseases and the emergence of historical and modern insitutions, while tackling the endogenenity problems that traditionally undermine this literature. I attempt to do so by taking advantage of the vast amount of newly available historical data and of the richness of data accessible through the geographic information system (GIS). The first chapter of my thesis, 'Side Effects of Immunities: The African Slave Trade', proposes and test a novel explanation for the origins of slavery in the tropical regions of the Americas. I argue that Africans were especially attractive for employment in tropical areas because they were immune to many of the diseases that were ravaging those regions. In particular, Africans' resistance to malaria increased the profitability of slaves coming from the most malarial parts of Africa. In the second chapter of my thesis, 'Caste Systems and Technology in Pre-Modern Societies', I advance and test the hypothesis that caste systems, generally viewed as a hindrance to social mobility and development, had been comparatively advantageous at an early stage of economic development. In the third chapter, 'Malaria as Determinant of Modern Ethnolinguistic Diversity', I conjecture that in highly malarious areas the necessity to adapt and develop immunities specific to the local disease environment historically reduced mobility and increased isolation, thus leading to the formation of a higher number of different ethnolinguistic groups. In the final chapter, 'Malaria Risk and Civil Violence: A Disaggregated Analysis for Africa', I explore the relationship between malaria and violent conflicts. Using georeferenced data for Africa, the article shows that violent events are more frequent in areas where malaria risk is higher.

A landscape mosaics approach for characterizing swidden systems from a REDD+ perspective

Swidden agriculture is often deemed responsible for deforestation and forest degradation in tropical regions, yet swidden landscapes are commonly not visible on land cover/use maps, making it difficult to prove this assertion. For a future REDD+ scheme, the correct identification of deforestation and forest degradation and linking these processes to land use is crucial. However, it is a key challenge to distinguish degradation and deforestation from temporal vegetation dynamics inherent to swiddening. In this article we present an approach for spatial delineation of swidden systems based on landscape mosaics. Furthermore we introduce a classification for change processes based on the change matrix of these landscape mosaics. Our approach is illustrated by a case study in Viengkham district in northern Laos. Over a 30-year time period the swidden landscapes have increased in extent and they have degraded, shifting from long crop–fallow cycles to short cycles. From 2007 to 2009 degradation within the swidden system accounted for half of all the landscape mosaics change processes. Pioneering shifting cultivation did not prevail. The landscape mosaics approach could be used in a swidden compatible monitoring, reporting and verification (MRV) system of a future REDD+ framework.

Early ship-based upper-air data and comparison with the Twentieth Century

Extension of 3-D atmospheric data products back into the past is desirable for a wide range of applications. Historical upper-air data are important in this endeavour, particularly in the maritime regions of the tropics and the southern hemisphere, where observations are extremely sparse. Here we present newly digitized and re-evaluated early ship-based upper-air data from two cruises: (1) kite and registering balloon profiles from onboard the ship SMS Planet on a cruise from Europe around South Africa and across the Indian Ocean to the western Pacific in 1906/1907, and (2) ship-based radiosonde data from onboard the MS Schwabenland on a cruise from Europe across the Atlantic to Antarctica and back in 1938/1939. We describe the data and provide estimations of the errors. We compare the data with a recent reanalysis (the Twentieth Century Reanalysis Project, 20CR, Compo et al., 2011) that provides global 3-D data back to the 19th century based on an assimilation of surface pressure data only (plus monthly mean sea-surface temperatures). In cruise (1), the agreement is generally good, but large temperature differences appear during a period with a strong inversion. In cruise (2), after a subset of the data are corrected, close agreement between observations and 20CR is found for geopotential height (GPH) and temperature notwithstanding a likely cold bias of 20CR at the tropopause level. Results are considerably worse for relative humidity, which was reportedly inaccurately measured. Note that comparing 20CR, which has limited skill in the tropical regions, with measurements from ships in remote regions made under sometimes difficult conditions can be considered a worst case assessment. In view of that fact, the anomaly correlations for temperature of 0.3–0.6 in the lower troposphere in cruise (1) and of 0.5–0.7 for tropospheric temperature and GPH in cruise (2) are considered as promising results. Moreover, they are consistent with the error estimations. The results suggest room for further improvement of data products in remote regions.

Fingerprints of changes in the terrestrial carbon cycle in response to large reorganizations in ocean circulation

CO2 and carbon cycle changes in the land, ocean and atmosphere are investigated using the comprehensive carbon cycle-climate model NCAR CSM1.4-carbon. Ensemble simulations are forced with freshwater perturbations applied at the North Atlantic and Southern Ocean deep water formation sites under pre-industrial climate conditions. As a result, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation reduces in each experiment to varying degrees. The physical climate fields show changes qualitatively in agreement with results documented in the literature, but there is a clear distinction between northern and southern perturbations. Changes in the physical variables, in turn, affect the land and ocean biogeochemical cycles and cause a reduction, or an increase, in the atmospheric CO2 concentration by up to 20 ppmv, depending on the location of the perturbation. In the case of a North Atlantic perturbation, the land biosphere reacts with a strong reduction in carbon stocks in some tropical locations and in high northern latitudes. In contrast, land carbon stocks tend to increase in response to a southern perturbation. The ocean is generally a sink of carbon although large reorganizations occur throughout various basins. The response of the land biosphere is strongest in the tropical regions due to a shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone. The carbon fingerprints of this shift, either to the south or to the north depending on where the freshwater is applied, can be found most clearly in South America. For this reason, a compilation of various paleoclimate proxy records of Younger Dryas precipitation changes are compared with our model results. The proxy records, in general, show good agreement with the model's response to a North Atlantic freshwater perturbation.

Travel medicine of parasitic diseases in the dog

Companion animals are increasingly brought along by their owners to foreign countries. Thus, small animal travel medicine is becoming more important. The field includes both prophylaxis and metaphylaxis against various infectious diseases, as well as their diagnosis and treatment. Dogs returning from Southern Europe, but also from more tropical regions, may be infected with exotic pathogens. In addition, imported pedigree or working dogs, and especially stray dogs imported through welfare organisations, are at high risk.The present overview summarises the clinical and practical aspects of exotic parasitic diseases that may affect such dogs, and the risk of such diseases becoming autochthonously transmitted in Switzerland. Furthermore, the zoonotic potential of these infections will be considered.

Calcium isotopic composition of high-latitude proxy carrier Neogloboquadrina pachyderma (sin.)

The accurate reconstruction of sea surface temperature (SST) history in climate-sensitive regions (e.g. tropical and polar oceans) became a challenging task in palaeoceanographic research. Biogenic shell carbonate SST proxies successfully developed for tropical regions often fail in cool water environments. Their major regional shortcomings and the cryptic diversity now found within the major high latitude proxy carrier Neogloboquadrina pachyderma (sin.) highlight an urgent need to explore complementary SST proxies for these cool-water regions. Here we incorporate the genetic component into a calibration study of a new SST proxy for the high latitudes. We found that the calcium isotopic composition (δ44/40Ca) of calcite from genotyped net catches and core-top samples of the planktonic foraminifera Neogloboquadrina pachyderma (sin.) is related to temperature and unaffected by genetic variations. The temperature sensitivity has been found to be 0.17 (±0.02)‰ per 1°C, highlighting its potential for downcore applications in open marine cool-water environments. Our results further indicate that in extreme polar environments, below a critical threshold temperature of 2.0 (±0.5)°C associated with salinities below 33.0 (±0.5)‰, a prominent shift in biomineralization affects the δ44/40Ca of genotyped and core-top N. pachyderma (sin.), becoming insensitive to temperature. These findings highlight the need of more systematic calibration studies on single planktonic foraminiferal species in order to unravel species-specific factors influencing the temperature sensitivity of Ca isotope fractionation and to validate the proxies' applicability.

Aerological observations in the Tropics in the Early Twentieth Century

In the first decades of the 20th century, aerological observations were for the first time performed in tropical regions. One of the most prominent endeavours in this respect was ARTHUR BERSON’s aerological expedition to East Africa. Although the main target was the East African monsoon circulation, the expedition provided also other insights that profoundly changed meteorology and climatology. BERSON observed that the tropical tropopause was much higher and colder than that over midlatitudes. Moreover, westerly winds were observed in the lower stratosphere, apparently contradicting the high-altitude equatorial easterly winds that were known since the Krakatoa eruption (‘‘Krakatoa easterlies’’). The puzzle was only resolved five decades later with the discovery of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO). In this paper we briefly summarize the expedition of BERSON and review the results in a historical context and in the light of the current research. In the second part of the paper we re-visit BERSON’s early aerological observations, which we have digitized. We compare the observed wind profiles with corresponding profiles extracted from the ‘‘Twentieth Century Reanalysis’’, which provides global three-dimensional weather information back to 1871 based on an assimilation of sea-level and surface pressure data. The comparison shows a good agreement at the coast but less good agreement further inland, at the shore of Lake Victoria, where the circulation is more complex. These results demonstrate that BERSON’s observations are still valuable today as input to current reanalysis systems or for their validation.

Vesicular stomatitis virus replicon expressing the VP2 outer capsid protein of bluetongue virus serotype 8 induces complete protection of sheep against challenge infection.

Bluetongue virus (BTV) is an arthropod-borne pathogen that causes an often fatal, hemorrhagic disease in ruminants. Different BTV serotypes occur throughout many temperate and tropical regions of the world. In 2006, BTV serotype 8 (BTV-8) emerged in Central and Northern Europe for the first time. Although this outbreak was eventually controlled using inactivated virus vaccines, the epidemic caused significant economic losses not only from the disease in livestock but also from trade restrictions. To date, BTV vaccines that allow simple serological discrimination of infected and vaccinated animals (DIVA) have not been approved for use in livestock. In this study, we generated recombinant RNA replicon particles based on single-cycle vesicular stomatitis virus (VSV) vectors. Immunization of sheep with infectious VSV replicon particles expressing the outer capsid VP2 protein of BTV-8 resulted in induction of BTV-8 serotype-specific neutralizing antibodies. After challenge with a virulent BTV-8 strain, the vaccinated animals neither developed signs of disease nor showed viremia. In contrast, immunization of sheep with recombinant VP5 - the second outer capsid protein of BTV - did not confer protection. Discrimination of infected from vaccinated animals was readily achieved using an ELISA for detection of antibodies against the VP7 antigen. These data indicate that VSV replicon particles potentially represent a safe and efficacious vaccine platform with which to control future outbreaks by BTV-8 or other serotypes, especially in previously non-endemic regions where discrimination between vaccinated and infected animals is crucial.

Drought Adaptation in Millets

Millets are major food and feed sources in the developing world especially in the semi-arid tropical regions of Africa and Asia. The most widely cultivated millets are pearl millet [Pennisetum glaucum (L.) R. Br.], finger millet [Eleusine coracana (L.) Gaertn], foxtail millet [Setaria italica (L.) P. Beauvois], Japanese barnyard millet [Echinochloa esculneta (A. Braun) H. Scholz], Indian Barnyard millet [Echinochloa frumetacea Link], kodo millet [Paspalum scrobiculatum L.], little millet [Panicum sumatrense Roth.ex.Roem. & Schult.], proso millet [Panicum miliaceum L.], tef [Eragrostis tef (Zucc.) Trotter] and fonio or acha [Digitaria exilis (Kippist) Stapf and D. iburua Stapf]. Millets are resilient to extreme environmental conditions especially to inadequate moisture and are rich in nutrients. Millets are also considered to be a healthy food, mainly due to the lack of gluten (a substance that causes coeliac disease) in their grain. Despite these agronomic, nutritional and health-related benefits, millets produce very low yield compared to major cereals such as wheat and rice. This extremely low productivity is related to the challenging environment in which they are extensively cultivated and to the little research investment in these crops. Recently, several national and international initiatives have begun to support the improvement of diverse millet types.

The Fohsella chronocline in middle Miocene sediments from the Ontong Java Plateau, Pacific Ocean

Micropaleontologists have traditionally recognized the mid-Miocene Fohsella lineage as a flagship for phyletic gradualism within the planktic foraminifera. However, study of a deep-sea record from the western equatorial Pacific (ODP Site 806) reveals that coiling ratios within this clade suddenly (<5 kyr) shift after a prolonged, ancestral state of near randomness (~50%) to a transient phase (13.42-13.43 Ma) of dextral dominance (~75%) immediately following the first common occurrence of keeled fohsellids. This brief period of dextral dominance was abruptly (<5 kyr) succeeded by an irreversible change to sinistral dominance (~96%). Fohsellid abundances decline markedly through the interval in which the sinistral preference is established. The shift to sinistrality (13.42 Ma) predated the deepening of fohsellid depth ecology by ~240-488 kyr, indicating that these two events were unrelated. This view is supported by a lack of delta 18O evidence for depth-habitat differences between the two chiral forms, which refutes the notion that sinistral fohsellids were "pre-adapted" for ensuing hydrographic change because they occupied a deeper depth habitat than their dextral counterparts. Planktic foraminiferal assemblages become strongly oligotrophic in character through the interval in which the fohsellid delta 18O increase is recorded, indicating that the migration to deeper depths was fostered by an expansion of the mixed layer in the western equatorial Pacific. Salient aspects of this brief, but conspicuous faunal change are a marked increase in the abundance of symbiont-bearing globigerinoidids, a concomitant collapse of local Jenkinsella mayeri/siakensis populations, and reduced fohsellid abundances. The rapid and permanent nature of the Fohsella sinistral shift provides a distinct, unequivocal datum that may prove useful for correlating mid-Miocene sections throughout the Caribbean Sea and tropical regions in the western sectors of the Pacific and Atlantic. The coiling ratio changes that occurred during the evolution of the Fohsella chronocline probably reflect changing population dynamics between cryptic genotypes with different coiling preferences.

Relative abundance of pteropod species of the plankton pump samples in the surface water of the eastern North Atlantic Ocean (Table 4)

Plankton pump samples and plankton tows (size fractions between 0.04 mm and 1.01 mm) from the eastern North Atlantic Ocean contain the following shell- and skeleton-producing planktonic and nektonic organisms, which can be fossilized in the sediments: diatoms, radiolarians, foraminifers, pteropods, heteropods, larvae of benthic gastropods and bivalves, ostracods, and fish. The abundance of these components has been mapped quantitatively in the eastern North Atlantic surface waters in October - December 1971. More ash (after ignition of the organic matter, consisting mostly of these components) per cubic meter of water is found close to land masses (continents and islands) and above shallow submarine elevations than in the open ocean. Preferred biotops of planktonic diatoms in the region described are temperate shallow water and tropical coastal upwelling areas. Radiolarians rarely occur close to the continent, but are abundant in pelagic warm water masses, even near islands. Foraminifers are similar to the radiolarians, rarer in the coastal water mass of the continent than in the open ocean or off oceanic islands. Their abundance is highest outside the upwelling area off NW Africa. Molluscs generally outnumber planktonic foraminifers, implying that the carbonate cycle of the ocean might be influenced considerably by these animals. The molluscs include heteropods, pteropods, and larvae of benthic bivalves and gastropods. Larvae of benthic molluscs occur more frequently close to continental and island margins and above submarine shoals (in this case mostly guyots) than in the open ocean. Their size increases, but they decrease in number with increasing distance from their area of origin. Ostracods and fish have only been found in small numbers concentrated off NW Africa. All of the above-mentioned components occur in higher abundances in the surface water than in subsurface waters. They are closely related to the hydrography of the sampled water masses (here defined through temperature measurements). Relatively warm water masses of the southeastern branches of the Gulf Stream system transport subtropical and southern temperate species to the Bay of Biscay, relatively cool water masses of the Portugal and Canary Currents carry transitional faunal elements along the NW African coast southwards to tropical regions. These mix in the northwest African upwelling area with tropical faunal elements which are generally assumed to live in the subsurface water masses and which probably have been transported northwards to this area by a subsurface counter current. The faunas typical for tropical surface water masses are not only reduced due to the tongue of cool water extending southwards along the coast, but they are also removed from the coastal zone by the upwelling subsurface water masses carrying their own shell and skeleton assemblages. Tropical water masses contain much more shelland skeleton-producing plankters than subtropical and temperate ones. The climatic conditions found at different latitudes control the development and intensity of a separate continental coastal water mass with its own plankton assemblages. Extent of this water mass and steepness of gradients between the pelagic and coastal environment limit the occurrence of pelagic plankton close to the continental coast. A similar water mass in only weakly developed off oceanic islands.

Detection histories for eight species of Amazona parrots in Venezuela during the NeoMaps bird surveys in 2010

Documenting changes in distribution is necessary for understanding species' response to environmental changes, but data on species distributions are heterogeneous in accuracy and resolution. Combining different data sources and methodological approaches can fill gaps in knowledge about the dynamic processes driving changes in species-rich, but data-poor regions. We combined recent bird survey data from the Neotropical Biodiversity Mapping Initiative (NeoMaps) with historical distribution records to estimate potential changes in the distribution of eight species of Amazon parrots in Venezuela. Using environmental covariates and presence-only data from museum collections and the literature, we first used maximum likelihood to fit a species distribution model (SDM) estimating a historical maximum probability of occurrence for each species. We then used recent, NeoMaps survey data to build single-season occupancy models (OM) with the same environmental covariates, as well as with time- and effort-dependent detectability, resulting in estimates of the current probability of occurrence. We finally calculated the disagreement between predictions as a matrix of probability of change in the state of occurrence. Our results suggested negative changes for the only restricted, threatened species, Amazona barbadensis, which has been independently confirmed with field studies. Two of the three remaining widespread species that were detected, Amazona amazonica, Amazona ochrocephala, also had a high probability of negative changes in northern Venezuela, but results were not conclusive for Amazona farinosa. The four remaining species were undetected in recent field surveys; three of these were most probably absent from the survey locations (Amazona autumnalis, Amazona mercenaria and Amazona festiva), while a fourth (Amazona dufresniana) requires more intensive targeted sampling to estimate its current status. Our approach is unique in taking full advantage of available, but limited data, and in detecting a high probability of change even for rare and patchily-distributed species. However, it is presently limited to species meeting the strong assumptions required for maximum-likelihood estimation with presence-only data, including very high detectability and representative sampling of its historical distribution.