A Bayesian latent class safety performance function for identifying motor vehicle crash blackspots

The current state of the practice in Blackspot Identification (BSI) utilizes safety performance functions based on total crash counts to identify transport system sites with potentially high crash risk. This paper postulates that total crash count variation over a transport network is a result of multiple distinct crash generating processes including geometric characteristics of the road, spatial features of the surrounding environment, and driver behaviour factors. However, these multiple sources are ignored in current modelling methodologies in both trying to explain or predict crash frequencies across sites. Instead, current practice employs models that imply that a single underlying crash generating process exists. The model mis-specification may lead to correlating crashes with the incorrect sources of contributing factors (e.g. concluding a crash is predominately caused by a geometric feature when it is a behavioural issue), which may ultimately lead to inefficient use of public funds and misidentification of true blackspots. This study aims to propose a latent class model consistent with a multiple crash process theory, and to investigate the influence this model has on correctly identifying crash blackspots. We first present the theoretical and corresponding methodological approach in which a Bayesian Latent Class (BLC) model is estimated assuming that crashes arise from two distinct risk generating processes including engineering and unobserved spatial factors. The Bayesian model is used to incorporate prior information about the contribution of each underlying process to the total crash count. The methodology is applied to the state-controlled roads in Queensland, Australia and the results are compared to an Empirical Bayesian Negative Binomial (EB-NB) model. A comparison of goodness of fit measures illustrates significantly improved performance of the proposed model compared to the NB model. The detection of blackspots was also improved when compared to the EB-NB model. In addition, modelling crashes as the result of two fundamentally separate underlying processes reveals more detailed information about unobserved crash causes.

Host Rock Classification (HRC) system for nuclear waste disposal in crystalline bedrock

A new rock mass classification scheme, the Host Rock Classification system (HRC-system) has been developed for evaluating the suitability of volumes of rock mass for the disposal of high-level nuclear waste in Precambrian crystalline bedrock. To support the development of the system, the requirements of host rock to be used for disposal have been studied in detail and the significance of the various rock mass properties have been examined. The HRC-system considers both the long-term safety of the repository and the constructability in the rock mass. The system is specific to the KBS-3V disposal concept and can be used only at sites that have been evaluated to be suitable at the site scale. By using the HRC-system, it is possible to identify potentially suitable volumes within the site at several different scales (repository, tunnel and canister scales). The selection of the classification parameters to be included in the HRC-system is based on an extensive study on the rock mass properties and their various influences on the long-term safety, the constructability and the layout and location of the repository. The parameters proposed for the classification at the repository scale include fracture zones, strength/stress ratio, hydraulic conductivity and the Groundwater Chemistry Index. The parameters proposed for the classification at the tunnel scale include hydraulic conductivity, Q´ and fracture zones and the parameters proposed for the classification at the canister scale include hydraulic conductivity, Q´, fracture zones, fracture width (aperture + filling) and fracture trace length. The parameter values will be used to determine the suitability classes for the volumes of rock to be classified. The HRC-system includes four suitability classes at the repository and tunnel scales and three suitability classes at the canister scale and the classification process is linked to several important decisions regarding the location and acceptability of many components of the repository at all three scales. The HRC-system is, thereby, one possible design tool that aids in locating the different repository components into volumes of host rock that are more suitable than others and that are considered to fulfil the fundamental requirements set for the repository host rock. The generic HRC-system, which is the main result of this work, is also adjusted to the site-specific properties of the Olkiluoto site in Finland and the classification procedure is demonstrated by a test classification using data from Olkiluoto. Keywords: host rock, classification, HRC-system, nuclear waste disposal, long-term safety, constructability, KBS-3V, crystalline bedrock, Olkiluoto

Simulation and modelling tools for quantitative safety assessments of unmanned aircraft systems and operations

This paper presents two simple simulation and modelling tools designed to aid in the safety assessment required for unmanned aircraft operations within unsegregated airspace. First, a fast pair-wise encounter generator is derived to simulate the See and Avoid environment. The utility of the encounter generator is demonstrated through the development of a hybrid database and a statistical performance evaluation of an autonomous See and Avoid decision and control strategy. Second, an unmanned aircraft mission generator is derived to help visualise the impact of multiple persistent unmanned operations on existing air traffic. The utility of the mission generator is demonstrated through an example analysis of a mixed airspace environment using real traffic data in Australia. These simulation and modelling approaches constitute a useful and extensible set of analysis tools, that can be leveraged to help explore some of the more fundamental and challenging problems facing civilian unmanned aircraft system integration.

The skin safety model: Reconceptualizing skin vulnerability in older patients

Purpose: To develop a unique skin safety model (SSM) that offers a new and unified perspective on the diverse yet interconnected antecedents that contribute to a spectrum of potential iatrogenic skin injuries in older hospitalized adults. Organizing Construct: Discussion paper. Methods: A literature search of electronic databases was conducted for published articles written in English addressing skin integrity and iatrogenic skin injury in elderly hospital patients between 1960 and 2014. Findings: There is a multiplicity of literature outlining the etiology, prevention, and management of specific iatrogenic skin injuries. Complex and interrelated factors contribute to iatrogenic skin injury in the older adult, including multiple comorbidities, factors influencing healthcare delivery, and acute situational stressors. A range of injuries can result when these factors are com- plicated by skin irritants, pressure, shear, or friction; however, despite skin injuries sharing multiple ntecedents, no unified overarching skin safety conceptual model has been published. Conclusions: The SSM presented in this article offers a new, unified framework that encompasses the spectrum of antecedents to skin vulnerability as well as the spectrum of iatrogenic skin injuries that may be sustained by older acute care patients. Current skin integrity frameworks address prevention and management of specific skin injuries. In contrast, the SSM recognizes the complex interplay of patient and system factors that may result in a range of iatrogenic skin injuries. Skin safety is reconceptualized into a single model that has the potential for application at the individual patient level, as well as health-care systems and governance levels. Clinical Relevance: Skin safety is concerned with keeping skin safe from any iatrogenic skin injury, and remains an ongoing challenge for healthcare providers. A conceptual framework that encompasses all of the factors that may contribute to a range of iatrogenic skin injuries is essential, and guides the clinician in maintaining skin integrity in the vulnerable older patient.

Approaches for improving the safety and efficacy of adenoviral gene therapy

Cancer is a devastating disease with poor prognosis and no curative treatment, when widely metastatic. Conventional therapies, such as chemotherapy and radiotherapy, have efficacy but are not curative and systemic toxicity can be considerable. Almost all cancers are caused due to changes in the genetic material of the transformed cells. Cancer gene therapy has emerged as a new treatment option, and past decades brought new insights in developing new therapeutic drugs for curing cancer. Oncolytic viruses constitute a novel therapeutic approach given their capacity to replicate in and kill specifically tumor cells as well as reaching tumor distant metastasis. Adenoviral gene therapy has been suggested to cause liver toxicity. This study shows that new developed adenoviruses, in particular Ad5/19p-HIT, can be redirected towards kidney while adenovirus uptake by liver is minimal. Moreover, low liver transduction resulted in a favorable tumor to liver ratio of virus load. Further, we established a new immunocompetent animal model Syrian hamsters. Wild type adenovirus 5 was found to replicate in Hap-T1 hamster tumors and normal tissues. There are no antiviral drugs available to inhibit adenovirus replication. In our study, chlorpromazine and cidofovir efficiently abrogated virus replication in vitro and showed significant reduction in vivo in tumors and liver. Once safety concerns were addressed together with the new given antiviral treatment options, we further improved oncolytic adenoviruses for better tumor penetration, local amplification and host system modulation. Further, we created Ad5/3-9HIF-Δ24-VEGFR-1-Ig, oncolytic adenovirus for improved infectivity and antiangiogenic effect for treatment of renal cancer. This virus exhibited increased anti-tumor effect and specific replication in kidney cancer cells. The key player for good efficacy of oncolytic virotherapy is the host immune response. Thus, we engineered a triple targeted adenovirus Ad5/3-hTERT-E1A-hCD40L, which would lead to tumor elimination due to tumor-specific oncolysis and apoptosis together with an anti-tumor immune response prompted by the immunomodulatory molecule. In conclusion, the results presented in this thesis constitute advances in our understanding of oncolytic virotherapy by successful tumor targeting, antiviral treatment options as a safety switch in case of replication associated side-effects, and modulation of the host immune system towards tumor elimination.  

Root system traits of Norway spruce, Scots pine, and silver birch in mixed boreal forests: an analysis of root architecture, morphology, and anatomy

The aim of this thesis was to unravel the functional-structural characteristics of root systems of Betula pendula Roth., Picea abies (L.) Karst., and Pinus sylvestris L. in mixed boreal forest stands differing in their developmental stage and site fertility. The root systems of these species had similar structural regularities: horizontally-oriented shallow roots defined the horizontal area of influence, and within this area, each species placed fine roots in the uppermost soil layers, while sinker roots defined the maximum rooting depth. Large radial spread and high ramification of coarse roots, and the high specific root length (SRL) and root length density (RLD) of fine roots indicated the high belowground competitiveness and root plasticity of B. pendula. Smaller radial root spread and sparser branching of coarse roots, and low SRL and RLD of fine roots of the conifers could indicate their more conservative resource use and high association with and dependence on ectomycorrhiza-forming fungi. The vertical fine root distributions of the species were mostly overlapping, implying the possibility for intense belowground competition for nutrients. In each species, conduits tapered and their frequency increased from distal roots to the stem, from the stem to the branches, and to leaf petioles in B. pendula. Conduit tapering was organ-specific in each species violating the assumptions of the general vascular scaling model (WBE). This reflects the hierarchical organization of a tree and differences between organs in the relative importance of transport, safety, and mechanical demands. The applied root model was capable of depicting the mass, length and spread of coarse roots of B. pendula and P. abies, and to the lesser extent in P. sylvestris. The roots did not follow self-similar fractal branching, because the parameter values varied within the root systems. Model parameters indicate differences in rooting behavior, and therefore different ecophysiological adaptations between species.

Achieving sustainable transportation system for Indian cities - problems and issues

This article aims at identifying the research issues and challenges that need to be addressed to achieve sustainable transportation system for Indian cities. The same is achieved by understanding the current system and trends of urbanization, motorization and modal shares in India; and their impact on mobility and safety (the two basic goals of transportation) as well as environment. Further, the article explores the efforts by the central and state governments in India to address the sustainability issues, and the problems and issues over and above the present efforts to achieve sustainability. The article concludes by summarizing the research issues with respect to planning/modelling, non-motorized transport, public transport, driver behaviour and road safety and traffic management. It is expected that these research issues will provide potential directions for carrying out further research aimed at achieving sustainable transport system for Indian cities.

Fault-Tolerant Average Execution Time Optimization for General Purpose Multi-Processor System-on Chips

Fault-tolerance is due to the semiconductor technology development important, not only for safety-critical systems but also for general-purpose (non-safety critical) systems. However, instead of guaranteeing that deadlines always are met, it is for general-purpose systems important to minimize the average execution time (AET) while ensuring fault-tolerance. For a given job and a soft (transient) error probability, we define mathematical formulas for AET that includes bus communication overhead for both voting (active replication) and rollback-recovery with checkpointing (RRC). And, for a given multi-processor system-on-chip (MPSoC), we define integer linear programming (ILP) models that minimize AET including bus communication overhead when: (1) selecting the number of checkpoints when using RRC, (2) finding the number of processors and job-to-processor assignment when using voting, and (3) defining fault-tolerance scheme (voting or RRC) per job and defining its usage for each job. Experiments demonstrate significant savings in AET.

A Low-Cost System for Measurement and Spectral Analysis of Motor Acoustic Noise

Workplace noise has become one of the major issues in industry not only because of workers’ health but also due to safety. Electric motors, particularly, inverter fed induction motors emit objectionably high levels of noise. This has led to the emergence of a research area, concerned with measurement and mitigation of the acoustic noise. This paper presents a lowcost option for measurement and spectral analysis of acoustic noise emitted by electric motors. The system consists of an electret microphone, amplifier and filter. It makes use of the windows sound card and associated software for data acquisition and analysis. The measurement system is calibrated using a professional sound level meter. Acoustic noise measurements are made on an induction motor drive using the proposed system as per relevant international standards. These measurements are seen to match closely with those of a professional meter.

System reliability analysis of granular filter for protection against piping in dams

Granular filters are provided for the safety of water retaining structure for protection against piping failure. The phenomenon of piping triggers when the base soil to be protected starts migrating in the direction of seepage flow under the influence of seepage force. To protect base soil from migration, the voids in the filter media should be small enough but it should not also be too small to block smooth passage of seeping water. Fulfilling these two contradictory design requirements at the same time is a major concern for the successful performance of granular filter media. Since Terzaghi era, conventionally, particle size distribution (PSD) of granular filters is designed based on particle size distribution characteristics of the base soil to be protected. The design approach provides a range of D15f value in which the PSD of granular filter media should fall and there exist infinite possibilities. Further, safety against the two critical design requirements cannot be ensured. Although used successfully for many decades, the existing filter design guidelines are purely empirical in nature accompanied with experience and good engineering judgment. In the present study, analytical solutions for obtaining the factor of safety with respect to base soil particle migration and soil permeability consideration as proposed by the authors are first discussed. The solution takes into consideration the basic geotechnical properties of base soil and filter media as well as existing hydraulic conditions and provides a comprehensive solution to the granular filter design with ability to assess the stability in terms of factor of safety. Considering the fact that geotechnical properties are variable in nature, probabilistic analysis is further suggested to evaluate the system reliability of the filter media that may help in risk assessment and risk management for decision making.

Effects of international trade of food and feed and human diet shifts on food security and environmental safety: integrating scales

4 p.

A comparison of the costs of operation of the motor bus, Birney safety car, and trolley bus on the local transportation routes in Pasadena

With the installation by the Pacific Electric Railway of a bus system in Pasadena to supplant most of its trolley lines, the problem of the comparison of the costs of the two systems naturally presented itself. The study here undertaken was originally started as just a comparison of the motor bus and Birney Safety Car, but as the work progressed it seemed advisable to include the trolley bus as well - a method of transportation that is comparatively new as far as development is concerned, but which seems to be finding increasing favor in the East.

Safety net or debt net?: ties between marketing and credit in coastal Bangladesh

Three fishing communities in coastal Bangladesh namely: 1) Hindu community near Chittagong; 2) Muslim community in Rehania; and 3) Bhuddist community of Rakhaipara were studied, and each shared the same credit marketing system.

Redundancy quantification in the safety assessment of existing concrete beam-and-slab bridges

In current practice the strength evaluation of a bridge system is typically based on firstly using elastic analysis to determine the distribution of load effects in the elements and then checking the ultimate section capacity of those elements. Ductility of the components in most bridge structures permits local yield and subsequent redistribution of the applied loads from the most heavily loaded elements. As a result a bridge can continue to carry additional loading even after one member has yielded, which has conventionally been adopted as the "failure criterion" in bridge strength evaluation. This means that a bridge with inherent redundancy has additional reserves of strength such that the failure of one element does not result in the failure of the complete system. For these bridges warning signs will show up and measures can be undertaken before the ultimate collapse is happening. This paper proposes a rational methodology for calculating the ultimate system strength and including in bridge evaluation the warning level due to redundancy. © 2004 Taylor & Francis Group, London.

Stress on the ward: evidence of safety tipping points in hospitals

Do hospitals experience safety tipping points as utilization increases, and if so, what are the implications for hospital operations management? We argue that safety tipping points occur when managerial escalation policies are exhausted and workload variability buffers are depleted. Front-line clinical staff is forced to ration resources and, at the same time, becomes more error prone as a result of elevated stress hormone levels. We confirm the existence of safety tipping points for in-hospital mortality using the discharge records of 82,280 patients across six high-mortality-risk conditions from 256 clinical departments of 83 German hospitals. Focusing on survival during the first seven days following admission, we estimate a mortality tipping point at an occupancy level of 92.5%. Among the 17% of patients in our sample who experienced occupancy above the tipping point during the first seven days of their hospital stay, high occupancy accounted for one in seven deaths. The existence of a safety tipping point has important implications for hospital management. First, flexible capacity expansion is more cost-effective for safety improvement than rigid capacity, because it will only be used when occupancy reaches the tipping point. In the context of our sample, flexible staffing saves more than 40% of the cost of a fully staffed capacity expansion, while achieving the same reduction in mortality. Second, reducing the variability of demand by pooling capacity in hospital clusters can greatly increase safety in a hospital system, because it reduces the likelihood that a patient will experience occupancy levels beyond the tipping point. Pooling the capacity of nearby hospitals in our sample reduces the number of deaths due to high occupancy by 34%.