Motion planning of autonomous vehicles in a non-autonomous vehicle environment without speed lanes

Planning is one of the key problems for autonomous vehicles operating in road scenarios. Present planning algorithms operate with the assumption that traffic is organised in predefined speed lanes, which makes it impossible to allow autonomous vehicles in countries with unorganised traffic. Unorganised traffic is though capable of higher traffic bandwidths when constituting vehicles vary in their speed capabilities and sizes. Diverse vehicles in an unorganised exhibit unique driving behaviours which are analysed in this paper by a simulation study. The aim of the work reported here is to create a planning algorithm for mixed traffic consisting of both autonomous and non-autonomous vehicles without any inter-vehicle communication. The awareness (e.g. vision) of every vehicle is restricted to nearby vehicles only and a straight infinite road is assumed for decision making regarding navigation in the presence of multiple vehicles. Exhibited behaviours include obstacle avoidance, overtaking, giving way for vehicles to overtake from behind, vehicle following, adjusting the lateral lane position and so on. A conflict of plans is a major issue which will almost certainly arise in the absence of inter-vehicle communication. Hence each vehicle needs to continuously track other vehicles and rectify plans whenever a collision seems likely. Further it is observed here that driver aggression plays a vital role in overall traffic dynamics, hence this has also been factored in accordingly. This work is hence a step forward towards achieving autonomous vehicles in unorganised traffic, while similar effort would be required for planning problems such as intersections, mergers, diversions and other modules like localisation.

Sea surface temperature estimation from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite 12 (GOES-12)

This paper describes the techniques used to obtain sea surface temperature (SST) retrievals from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite 12 (GOES-12) at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Office of Satellite Data Processing and Distribution. Previous SST retrieval techniques relying on channels at 11 and 12 μm are not applicable because GOES-12 lacks the latter channel. Cloud detection is performed using a Bayesian method exploiting fast-forward modeling of prior clear-sky radiances using numerical weather predictions. The basic retrieval algorithm used at nighttime is based on a linear combination of brightness temperatures at 3.9 and 11 μm. In comparison with traditional split window SSTs (using 11- and 12-μm channels), simulations show that this combination has maximum scatter when observing drier colder scenes, with a comparable overall performance. For daytime retrieval, the same algorithm is applied after estimating and removing the contribution to brightness temperature in the 3.9-μm channel from solar irradiance. The correction is based on radiative transfer simulations and comprises a parameterization for atmospheric scattering and a calculation of ocean surface reflected radiance. Potential use of the 13-μm channel for SST is shown in a simulation study: in conjunction with the 3.9-μm channel, it can reduce the retrieval error by 30%. Some validation results are shown while a companion paper by Maturi et al. shows a detailed analysis of the validation results for the operational algorithms described in this present article.

Adaptive nonlinear equalizer using a mixture of gaussians based on-line density estimator

This paper introduces a new adaptive nonlinear equalizer relying on a radial basis function (RBF) model, which is designed based on the minimum bit error rate (MBER) criterion, in the system setting of the intersymbol interference channel plus a co-channel interference. Our proposed algorithm is referred to as the on-line mixture of Gaussians estimator aided MBER (OMG-MBER) equalizer. Specifically, a mixture of Gaussians based probability density function (PDF) estimator is used to model the PDF of the decision variable, for which a novel on-line PDF update algorithm is derived to track the incoming data. With the aid of this novel on-line mixture of Gaussians based sample-by-sample updated PDF estimator, our adaptive nonlinear equalizer is capable of updating its equalizer’s parameters sample by sample to aim directly at minimizing the RBF nonlinear equalizer’s achievable bit error rate (BER). The proposed OMG-MBER equalizer significantly outperforms the existing on-line nonlinear MBER equalizer, known as the least bit error rate equalizer, in terms of both the convergence speed and the achievable BER, as is confirmed in our simulation study

Cobalt incorporation in calcite: Thermochemistry of (Ca,Co)CO3 solid solutions from density functional theory simulations

The incorporation of cobalt in mixed metal carbonates is a possible route to the immobilization of this toxic element in the environment. However, the thermodynamics of (Ca,Co)CO3 solid solutions are still unclear due to conflicting data from experiment and from the observation of natural ocurrences. We report here the results of a computer simulation study of the mixing of calcite (CaCO3) and spherocobaltite (CoCO3), using density functional theory calculations. Our simulations suggest that previously proposed thermodynamic models, based only on the range of observed compositions, significantly overestimate the solubility between the two solids and therefore underestimate the extension of the miscibility gap under ambient conditions. The enthalpy of mixing of the disordered solid solution is strongly positive and moderately asymmetric: calcium incorporation in spherocobaltite is more endothermic than cobalt incorporation in calcite. Ordering of the impurities in (0001) layers is energetically favourable with respect to the disordered solid solution at low temperatures and intermediate compositions, but the ordered phase is still unstable to demixing. We calculate the solvus and spinodal lines in the phase diagram using a sub-regular solution model, and conclude that many Ca1-xCoxCO3 mineral solid solutions (with observed compositions of up to x=0.027, and above x=0.93) are metastable with respect to phase separation. We also calculate solid/aqueous distribution coefficients to evaluate the effect of the strong non-ideality of mixing on the equilibrium with aqueous solution, showing that the thermodynamically-driven incorporation of cobalt in calcite (and of calcium in spherocobaltite) is always very low, regardless of the Co/Ca ratio of the aqueous environment.

B-spline neural network based single-carrier frequency domain equalisation for Hammerstein channels

A practical single-carrier (SC) block transmission with frequency domain equalisation (FDE) system can generally be modelled by the Hammerstein system that includes the nonlinear distortion effects of the high power amplifier (HPA) at transmitter. For such Hammerstein channels, the standard SC-FDE scheme no longer works. We propose a novel Bspline neural network based nonlinear SC-FDE scheme for Hammerstein channels. In particular, we model the nonlinear HPA, which represents the complex-valued static nonlinearity of the Hammerstein channel, by two real-valued B-spline neural networks, one for modelling the nonlinear amplitude response of the HPA and the other for the nonlinear phase response of the HPA. We then develop an efficient alternating least squares algorithm for estimating the parameters of the Hammerstein channel, including the channel impulse response coefficients and the parameters of the two B-spline models. Moreover, we also use another real-valued B-spline neural network to model the inversion of the HPA’s nonlinear amplitude response, and the parameters of this inverting B-spline model can be estimated using the standard least squares algorithm based on the pseudo training data obtained as a byproduct of the Hammerstein channel identification. Equalisation of the SC Hammerstein channel can then be accomplished by the usual one-tap linear equalisation in frequency domain as well as the inverse Bspline neural network model obtained in time domain. The effectiveness of our nonlinear SC-FDE scheme for Hammerstein channels is demonstrated in a simulation study.

Anisotropy of magnetoviscous effect in structure-forming ferrofluids

The magnetoviscous effect, change in viscosity with change in magnetic field strength, and the anisotropy of magnetoviscous effect, change in viscosity with orientation of magnetic field, have been a focus of interest since four decades. A satisfactory understanding of the microscopic origin of anisotropy of magnetoviscous effect in magnetic fluids is still a matter of debate and a field of intense research. Here, we present an extensive simulation study to understand the relation between the anisotropy of magnetoviscous effect and the underlying change in micro-structures of ferrofluids. Our results indicate that field-induced chain-like structures respond very differently depending on their orientation relative to the direction of an externally applied shear flow, which leads to a pronounced anisotropy of viscosity. In this work, we focus on three exemplary values of dipolar interaction strengths which correspond to weak, intermediate and strong interactions between dipolar colloidal particles. We compare our simulation results with an experimental study on cobalt-based ferrofluids as well as with an existing theoretical model called the chain model. A non-monotonic behaviour in the anisotropy of magnetoviscous effect is observed with increasing dipolar interaction strength and is explained in terms of micro-structure formation.

Flexible selection of a single treatment incorporating short-term endpoint information in a phase II/III clinical trial

Seamless phase II/III clinical trials in which an experimental treatment is selected at an interim analysis have been the focus of much recent research interest. Many of the methods proposed are based on the group sequential approach. This paper considers designs of this type in which the treatment selection can be based on short-term endpoint information for more patients than have primary endpoint data available. We show that in such a case, the familywise type I error rate may be inflated if previously proposed group sequential methods are used and the treatment selection rule is not specified in advance. A method is proposed to avoid this inflation by considering the treatment selection that maximises the conditional error given the data available at the interim analysis. A simulation study is reported that illustrates the type I error rate inflation and compares the power of the new approach with two other methods: a combination testing approach and a group sequential method that does not use the short-term endpoint data, both of which also strongly control the type I error rate. The new method is also illustrated through application to a study in Alzheimer's disease. © 2015 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Assessing macro uncertainty in real-time when data are subject to revision

Model-based estimates of future uncertainty are generally based on the in-sample fit of the model, as when Box-Jenkins prediction intervals are calculated. However, this approach will generate biased uncertainty estimates in real time when there are data revisions. A simple remedy is suggested, and used to generate more accurate prediction intervals for 25 macroeconomic variables, in line with the theory. A simulation study based on an empirically-estimated model of data revisions for US output growth is used to investigate small-sample properties.

Start-up rheometry of highly polydisperse magnetorheological fluids: experiments and simulations

An extensive experimental and simulation study is carried out in conventional magnetorheological fluids formulated by dispersion of mixtures of carbonyl iron particles having different sizes in Newtonian carriers. Apparent yield stress data are reported for a wide range of polydispersity indexes (PDI) from PDI = 1.63 to PDI = 3.31, which for a log-normal distribution corresponds to the standard deviation ranging from to . These results demonstrate that the effect of polydispersity is negligible in this range in spite of exhibiting very different microstructures. Experimental data in the magnetic saturation regime are in quantitative good agreement with particle-level simulations under the assumption of dipolar magnetostatic forces. The insensitivity of the yield stresses to the polydispersity can be understood from the interplay between the particle cluster size distribution and the packing density of particles inside the clusters.

The complementary exponential power lifetime model

In this paper we propose a new lifetime distribution which can handle bathtub-shaped unimodal increasing and decreasing hazard rate functions The model has three parameters and generalizes the exponential power distribution proposed by Smith and Bain (1975) with the inclusion of an additional shape parameter The maximum likelihood estimation procedure is discussed A small-scale simulation study examines the performance of the likelihood ratio statistics under small and moderate sized samples Three real datasets Illustrate the methodology (C) 2010 Elsevier B V All rights reserved

Transformed generalized linear models

The estimation of data transformation is very useful to yield response variables satisfying closely a normal linear model, Generalized linear models enable the fitting of models to a wide range of data types. These models are based on exponential dispersion models. We propose a new class of transformed generalized linear models to extend the Box and Cox models and the generalized linear models. We use the generalized linear model framework to fit these models and discuss maximum likelihood estimation and inference. We give a simple formula to estimate the parameter that index the transformation of the response variable for a subclass of models. We also give a simple formula to estimate the rth moment of the original dependent variable. We explore the possibility of using these models to time series data to extend the generalized autoregressive moving average models discussed by Benjamin er al. [Generalized autoregressive moving average models. J. Amer. Statist. Assoc. 98, 214-223]. The usefulness of these models is illustrated in a Simulation study and in applications to three real data sets. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Hypotheses testing for structural calibration model

The main objective of this paper is to discuss maximum likelihood inference for the comparative structural calibration model (Barnett, in Biometrics 25:129-142, 1969), which is frequently used in the problem of assessing the relative calibrations and relative accuracies of a set of p instruments, each designed to measure the same characteristic on a common group of n experimental units. We consider asymptotic tests to answer the outlined questions. The methodology is applied to a real data set and a small simulation study is presented.

Hypotheses Testing on a Multivariate Null Intercept Errors-in-Variables Model

Considering the Wald, score, and likelihood ratio asymptotic test statistics, we analyze a multivariate null intercept errors-in-variables regression model, where the explanatory and the response variables are subject to measurement errors, and a possible structure of dependency between the measurements taken within the same individual are incorporated, representing a longitudinal structure. This model was proposed by Aoki et al. (2003b) and analyzed under the bayesian approach. In this article, considering the classical approach, we analyze asymptotic test statistics and present a simulation study to compare the behavior of the three test statistics for different sample sizes, parameter values and nominal levels of the test. Also, closed form expressions for the score function and the Fisher information matrix are presented. We consider two real numerical illustrations, the odontological data set from Hadgu and Koch (1999), and a quality control data set.

The complementary exponential geometric distribution: Model, properties, and a comparison with its counterpart

In this paper, we proposed a new two-parameter lifetime distribution with increasing failure rate, the complementary exponential geometric distribution, which is complementary to the exponential geometric model proposed by Adamidis and Loukas (1998). The new distribution arises on a latent complementary risks scenario, in which the lifetime associated with a particular risk is not observable; rather, we observe only the maximum lifetime value among all risks. The properties of the proposed distribution are discussed, including a formal proof of its probability density function and explicit algebraic formulas for its reliability and failure rate functions, moments, including the mean and variance, variation coefficient, and modal value. The parameter estimation is based on the usual maximum likelihood approach. We report the results of a misspecification simulation study performed in order to assess the extent of misspecification errors when testing the exponential geometric distribution against our complementary one in the presence of different sample size and censoring percentage. The methodology is illustrated on four real datasets; we also make a comparison between both modeling approaches. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Bayesian inference for a skew-normal IRT model under the centred parameterization

Item response theory (IRT) comprises a set of statistical models which are useful in many fields, especially when there is interest in studying latent variables. These latent variables are directly considered in the Item Response Models (IRM) and they are usually called latent traits. A usual assumption for parameter estimation of the IRM, considering one group of examinees, is to assume that the latent traits are random variables which follow a standard normal distribution. However, many works suggest that this assumption does not apply in many cases. Furthermore, when this assumption does not hold, the parameter estimates tend to be biased and misleading inference can be obtained. Therefore, it is important to model the distribution of the latent traits properly. In this paper we present an alternative latent traits modeling based on the so-called skew-normal distribution; see Genton (2004). We used the centred parameterization, which was proposed by Azzalini (1985). This approach ensures the model identifiability as pointed out by Azevedo et al. (2009b). Also, a Metropolis Hastings within Gibbs sampling (MHWGS) algorithm was built for parameter estimation by using an augmented data approach. A simulation study was performed in order to assess the parameter recovery in the proposed model and the estimation method, and the effect of the asymmetry level of the latent traits distribution on the parameter estimation. Also, a comparison of our approach with other estimation methods (which consider the assumption of symmetric normality for the latent traits distribution) was considered. The results indicated that our proposed algorithm recovers properly all parameters. Specifically, the greater the asymmetry level, the better the performance of our approach compared with other approaches, mainly in the presence of small sample sizes (number of examinees). Furthermore, we analyzed a real data set which presents indication of asymmetry concerning the latent traits distribution. The results obtained by using our approach confirmed the presence of strong negative asymmetry of the latent traits distribution. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.