Enhancing the efficiency of freight transport by using simulation

The role of transport in the economy is twofold. As a sector of economic activity it contributes to a share of national income. On the other hand, improvements in transport infrastructure create room for accelerated economic growth. As a means to support railways as a safe and environmentally friendly transportation mode, the EU legislation has required the opening of domestic railway freight for competition from beginning of year 2007. The importance of railways as a mode of transport has been great in Finland, as a larger share of freight has been carried on rails than in Europe on average. In this thesis it is claimed that the efficiency of goods transport can be enhanced by service specific investments. Furthermore, it is stressed that simulation can and should be used to evaluate the cost-efficiency of transport systems on operational level, as well as to assess transportation infrastructure investments. In all the studied cases notable efficiency improvements were found. For example in distribution, home delivery of groceries can be almost twice as cost efficient as the current practice of visiting the store. The majority of the cases concentrated on railway freight. In timber transportation, the item with the largest annual transport volume in domestic railway freight in Finland, the transportation cost could be reduced most substantially. Also in international timber procurement, the utilization of railway wagons could be improved by combining complementary flows. The efficiency improvements also have positive environmental effects; a large part of road transit could be moved to rails annually. If impacts of freight transport are included in cost-benefit analysis of railway investments, up to 50 % increase in the net benefits of the evaluated alternatives can be experienced, avoiding a possible inbuilt bias in the assessment framework, and thus increasing the efficiency of national investments in transportation infrastructure. Transportation systems are a typical example of complex real world systems that cannot be analysed realistically by analytical methods, whereas simulation allows inclusion of dynamics and the level of detail required. Regarding simulation as a viable tool for assessing the efficiency of transportation systems finds support also in the international survey conducted for railway freight operators; operators use operations research methods widely for planning purposes, while simulation is applied only by the larger operators.

A risk infection simulation model for fusarium head blight of wheat

Fusarium Head Blight (FHB) is a disease of great concern in wheat (Triticum aestivum). Due to its relatively narrow susceptible phase and environmental dependence, the pathosystem is suitable for modeling. In the present work, a mechanistic model for estimating an infection index of FHB was developed. The model is process-based driven by rates, rules and coefficients for estimating the dynamics of flowering, airborne inoculum density and infection frequency. The latter is a function of temperature during an infection event (IE), which is defined based on a combination of daily records of precipitation and mean relative humidity. The daily infection index is the product of the daily proportion of susceptible tissue available, infection frequency and spore cloud density. The model was evaluated with an independent dataset of epidemics recorded in experimental plots (five years and three planting dates) at Passo Fundo, Brazil. Four models that use different factors were tested, and results showed all were able to explain variation for disease incidence and severity. A model that uses a correction factor for extending host susceptibility and daily spore cloud density to account for post-flowering infections was the most accurate explaining 93% of the variation in disease severity and 69% of disease incidence according to regression analysis.

Tutorials for MeVEA Simulation Software

The objective of the thesis was to create three tutorials for MeVEA Simulation Software to instruct the new users to the modeling methodology used in the MeVEA Simulation Software. MeVEA Simulation Software is a real-time simulation software based on multibody dynamics. The simulation software is designed to create simulation models of complete mechatronical system. The thesis begins with a more detail description of the MeVEA Simulation Software and its components. The thesis presents the three simulation models and written theory of the steps of model creation. The first tutorial introduces the basic features which are used in most simulation models. The basic features include bodies, constrains, forces, basic hydraulics and motors. The second tutorial introduces the power transmission components, tyres and user input definitions for the different components in power transmission systems. The third tutorial introduces the definitions of two different types of collisions and collision graphics used in MeVEA Simulation Software.

Computational modeling for irrigated agriculture planning. Part I: general description and linear programming

Linear programming models are effective tools to support initial or periodic planning of agricultural enterprises, requiring, however, technical coefficients that can be determined using computer simulation models. This paper, presented in two parts, deals with the development, application and tests of a methodology and of a computational modeling tool to support planning of irrigated agriculture activities. Part I aimed at the development and application, including sensitivity analysis, of a multiyear linear programming model to optimize the financial return and water use, at farm level for Jaíba irrigation scheme, Minas Gerais State, Brazil, using data on crop irrigation requirement and yield, obtained from previous simulation with MCID model. The linear programming model outputted a crop pattern to which a maximum total net present value of R$ 372,723.00 for the four years period, was obtained. Constraints on monthly water availability, labor, land and production were critical in the optimal solution. In relation to the water use optimization, it was verified that an expressive reductions on the irrigation requirements may be achieved by small reductions on the maximum total net present value.

Computational modeling for irrigated agriculture planning. Part II: risk analysis

Techniques of evaluation of risks coming from inherent uncertainties to the agricultural activity should accompany planning studies. The risk analysis should be carried out by risk simulation using techniques as the Monte Carlo method. This study was carried out to develop a computer program so-called P-RISCO for the application of risky simulations on linear programming models, to apply to a case study, as well to test the results comparatively to the @RISK program. In the risk analysis it was observed that the average of the output variable total net present value, U, was considerably lower than the maximum U value obtained from the linear programming model. It was also verified that the enterprise will be front to expressive risk of shortage of water in the month of April, what doesn't happen for the cropping pattern obtained by the minimization of the irrigation requirement in the months of April in the four years. The scenario analysis indicated that the sale price of the passion fruit crop exercises expressive influence on the financial performance of the enterprise. In the comparative analysis it was verified the equivalence of P-RISCO and @RISK programs in the execution of the risk simulation for the considered scenario.

Simulation of moisture profiles in a Latossol in Dourados region, in the State of Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil

The understanding of unsaturated soil water flow at process-level is essential to develop proper management actions for environmental protection in agricultural systems. One important tool for simulation of soil water flow that has been used worldwide is the SWAP model. The aim of this work was to test and to calibrate the SWAP model by inverse modeling to describe moisture profiles in a Brazilian very clayey Latossol in Dourados, State of Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil. The SWAP model was tested in an experimental field of 0.09 ha cultivated with soybean and soil profiles were sampled eight times between December 2006 and October 2007. The SWAP input values (i.e. soil water retention curves and meteorological data) were based on in-situ measurements. Simulations with uncalibrated soil water retention curves resulted in moisture profiles that were too wet for almost all sampling dates, in particular between 0-10 cm depth. After calibration of soil water retention curves, there was a good improvement in the simulated moisture profiles, which were within the range of measured values for almost all depths and sampling dates.

Application of simulated annealing in simulation and optimization of drying process of Zea mays malt

Kinetic simulation and drying process optimization of corn malt by Simulated Annealing (SA) for estimation of temperature and time parameters in order to preserve maximum amylase activity in the obtained product are presented here. Germinated corn seeds were dried at 54-76 °C in a convective dryer, with occasional measurement of moisture content and enzymatic activity. The experimental data obtained were submitted to modeling. Simulation and optimization of the drying process were made by using the SA method, a randomized improvement algorithm, analogous to the simulated annealing process. Results showed that seeds were best dried between 3h and 5h. Among the models used in this work, the kinetic model of water diffusion into corn seeds showed the best fitting. Drying temperature and time showed a square influence on the enzymatic activity. Optimization through SA showed the best condition at 54 ºC and between 5.6h and 6.4h of drying. Values of specific activity in the corn malt were found between 5.26±0.06 SKB/mg and 15.69±0,10% of remaining moisture.

Auger-type granular fertylizer distributor: matemathical model and dynamic simulation

The objective of this study was to model mathematically and to simulate the dynamic behavior of an auger-type fertilizer applicator (AFA) in order to use the variable-rate application (VRA) and reduce the coefficient of variation (CV) of the application, proposing an angular speed controller θ' for the motor drive shaft. The input model was θ' and the response was the fertilizer mass flow, due to the construction, density of fertilizer, fill factor and the end position of the auger. The model was used to simulate a control system in open loop, with an electric drive for AFA using an armature voltage (V A) controller. By introducing a sinusoidal excitation signal in V A with amplitude and delay phase optimized and varying θ' during an operation cycle, it is obtained a reduction of 29.8% in the CV (constant V A) to 11.4%. The development of the mathematical model was a first step towards the introduction of electric drive systems and closed loop control for the implementation of AFA with low CV in VRA.

Hydrological simulation using SWAT model in headwater basin in Southeast Brazil

Hydrological models are important tools that have been used in water resource planning and management. Thus, the aim of this work was to calibrate and validate in a daily time scale, the SWAT model (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) to the watershed of the Galo creek , located in Espírito Santo State. To conduct the study we used georeferenced maps of relief, soil type and use, in addition to historical daily time series of basin climate and flow. In modeling were used time series corresponding to the periods Jan 1, 1995 to Dec 31, 2000 and Jan 1, 2001 to Dec 20, 2003 for calibration and validation, respectively. Model performance evaluation was done using the Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient (E NS) and the percentage of bias (P BIAS). SWAT evaluation was also done in the simulation of the following hydrological variables: maximum and minimum annual daily flowsand minimum reference flows, Q90 and Q95, based on mean absolute error. E NS and P BIAS were, respectively, 0.65 and 7.2% and 0.70 and 14.1%, for calibration and validation, indicating a satisfactory performance for the model. SWAT adequately simulated minimum annual daily flow and the reference flows, Q90 and Q95; it was not suitable in the simulation of maximum annual daily flows.

Bartlett-Lewis of rectangular pulse modified model: estimate of parameters for simulation of precipitation in sub-hourly duration

The Bartlett-Lewis Rectangular Pulse Modified (BLPRM) model simulates the precipitous slide in the hourly and sub-hourly and has six parameters for each of the twelve months of the year. This study aimed to evaluate the behavior of precipitation series in the duration of 15 min, obtained by simulation using the model BLPRM in situations: (a) where the parameters are estimated from a combination of statistics, creating five different sets; (b) suitability of the model to generate rain. To adjust the parameters were used rain gauge records of Pelotas/RS/Brazil, which statistics were estimated - mean, variance, covariance, autocorrelation coefficient of lag 1, the proportion of dry days in the period considered. The results showed that the parameters related to the time of onset of precipitation (λ) and intensities (μx) were the most stable and the most unstable were ν parameter, related to rain duration. The BLPRM model adequately represented the mean, variance, and proportion of the dry period of the series of precipitation lasting 15 min and, the time dependence of the heights of rain, represented autocorrelation coefficient of the first retardation was statistically less simulated series suitability for the duration of 15 min.

Mathematical simulation parameters for drying of cassava starch pellets

Based on experimental tests, it was obtained the equations for drying, equilibrium moisture content, latent heat of vaporization of water contained in the product and the equation of specific heat of cassava starch pellets, essential parameters for realizing modeling and mathematical simulation of mechanical drying of cassava starch for a new technique proposed, consisting of preformed by pelleting and subsequent artificial drying of starch pellets. Drying tests were conducted in an experimental chamber by varying the air temperature, relative humidity, air velocity and product load. The specific heat of starch was determined by differential scanning calorimetry. The generated equations were validated through regression analysis, finding an appropriate correlation of the data, which indicates that by using these equations, can accurately model and simulate the drying process of cassava starch pellets.

Fuzzy modeling of broiler performance, raised from 1 to 21 days, subject to heat stress

ABSTRACT Given the need to obtain systems to better control broiler production environment, we performed an experiment with broilers from 1 to 21 days, which were submitted to different intensities and air temperature durations in conditioned wind tunnels and the results were used for validation of afuzzy model. The model was developed using as input variables: duration of heat stress (days), dry bulb air temperature (°C) and as output variable: feed intake (g) weight gain (g) and feed conversion (g.g-1). The inference method used was Mamdani, 20 rules have been prepared and the defuzzification technique used was the Center of Gravity. A satisfactory efficiency in determining productive responses is evidenced in the results obtained in the model simulation, when compared with the experimental data, where R2 values ​​calculated for feed intake, weight gain and feed conversion were 0.998, 0.981 and 0.980, respectively.

Improving Transportation and Warehousing Efficiency with Simulation-Based Decision Support Systems

Transportation and warehousing are large and growing sectors in the society, and their efficiency is of high importance. Transportation also has a large share of global carbondioxide emissions, which are one the leading causes of anthropogenic climate warming. Various countries have agreed to decrease their carbon emissions according to the Kyoto protocol. Transportation is the only sector where emissions have steadily increased since the 1990s, which highlights the importance of transportation efficiency. The efficiency of transportation and warehousing can be improved with the help of simulations, but models alone are not sufficient. This research concentrates on the use of simulations in decision support systems. Three main simulation approaches are used in logistics: discrete-event simulation, systems dynamics, and agent-based modeling. However, individual simulation approaches have weaknesses of their own. Hybridization (combining two or more approaches) can improve the quality of the models, as it allows using a different method to overcome the weakness of one method. It is important to choose the correct approach (or a combination of approaches) when modeling transportation and warehousing issues. If an inappropriate method is chosen (this can occur if the modeler is proficient in only one approach or the model specification is not conducted thoroughly), the simulation model will have an inaccurate structure, which in turn will lead to misleading results. This issue can further escalate, as the decision-maker may assume that the presented simulation model gives the most useful results available, even though the whole model can be based on a poorly chosen structure. In this research it is argued that simulation- based decision support systems need to take various issues into account to make a functioning decision support system. The actual simulation model can be constructed using any (or multiple) approach, it can be combined with different optimization modules, and there needs to be a proper interface between the model and the user. These issues are presented in a framework, which simulation modelers can use when creating decision support systems. In order for decision-makers to fully benefit from the simulations, the user interface needs to clearly separate the model and the user, but at the same time, the user needs to be able to run the appropriate runs in order to analyze the problems correctly. This study recommends that simulation modelers should start to transfer their tacit knowledge to explicit knowledge. This would greatly benefit the whole simulation community and improve the quality of simulation-based decision support systems as well. More studies should also be conducted by using hybrid models and integrating simulations with Graphical Information Systems.

Simulation and optimization tools in paper machine concept design

The last decade has shown that the global paper industry needs new processes and products in order to reassert its position in the industry. As the paper markets in Western Europe and North America have stabilized, the competition has tightened. Along with the development of more cost-effective processes and products, new process design methods are also required to break the old molds and create new ideas. This thesis discusses the development of a process design methodology based on simulation and optimization methods. A bi-level optimization problem and a solution procedure for it are formulated and illustrated. Computational models and simulation are used to illustrate the phenomena inside a real process and mathematical optimization is exploited to find out the best process structures and control principles for the process. Dynamic process models are used inside the bi-level optimization problem, which is assumed to be dynamic and multiobjective due to the nature of papermaking processes. The numerical experiments show that the bi-level optimization approach is useful for different kinds of problems related to process design and optimization. Here, the design methodology is applied to a constrained process area of a papermaking line. However, the same methodology is applicable to all types of industrial processes, e.g., the design of biorefiners, because the methodology is totally generalized and can be easily modified.

Simulation of structural stress history based on dynamic analysis

Modern machine structures are often fabricated by welding. From a fatigue point of view, the structural details and especially, the welded details are the most prone to fatigue damage and failure. Design against fatigue requires information on the fatigue resistance of a structure’s critical details and the stress loads that act on each detail. Even though, dynamic simulation of flexible bodies is already current method for analyzing structures, obtaining the stress history of a structural detail during dynamic simulation is a challenging task; especially when the detail has a complex geometry. In particular, analyzing the stress history of every structural detail within a single finite element model can be overwhelming since the amount of nodal degrees of freedom needed in the model may require an impractical amount of computational effort. The purpose of computer simulation is to reduce amount of prototypes and speed up the product development process. Also, to take operator influence into account, real time models, i.e. simplified and computationally efficient models are required. This in turn, requires stress computation to be efficient if it will be performed during dynamic simulation. The research looks back at the theoretical background of multibody dynamic simulation and finite element method to find suitable parts to form a new approach for efficient stress calculation. This study proposes that, the problem of stress calculation during dynamic simulation can be greatly simplified by using a combination of floating frame of reference formulation with modal superposition and a sub-modeling approach. In practice, the proposed approach can be used to efficiently generate the relevant fatigue assessment stress history for a structural detail during or after dynamic simulation. In this work numerical examples are presented to demonstrate the proposed approach in practice. The results show that approach is applicable and can be used as proposed.