889 resultados para Scenario planning
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This study aims to understand the reality of social service organizations, the level of implementation of the strategic planning as well as the impact of its application on organizational effectiveness. At first, we will group organizations in clusters according to the level of strategic planning implementation and its degree of effectiveness. Secondly, we will analyse all the different groups. Given the growing number of social service organizations and the consequent complexity of their structures, it turns out the need for these organizations adopt formal management techniques. Strategic planning is a valuable strategic management tool and one of its main objectives is to make organizations more effective. Therefore, the research has been conducted in order to determine if strategic planning is implemented in social service organizations and which effects has its application on organizational effectiveness. The survey, applied to 220 social service organizations, allowed us to gather them into different clusters, showing that different levels of strategic planning determine distinct degrees of organizational efficiency. Finally, it should be noted that findings of this research may be essential to decision makers of these organizations, because it was shown that the adoption of strategic planning has a positive influence on organizational effectiveness of social service organizations.
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Dissertação para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia Eletrotécnica
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The integration of growing amounts of distributed generation in power systems, namely at distribution networks level, has been fostered by energy policies in several countries around the world, including in Europe. This intensive integration of distributed, non-dispatchable, and natural sources based generation (including wind power) has caused several changes in the operation and planning of power systems and of electricity markets. Sometimes the available non-dispatchable generation is higher than the demand. This generation must be used; otherwise it is wasted if not stored or used to supply additional demand. New policies and market rules, as well as new players, are needed in order to competitively integrate all the resources. The methodology proposed in this paper aims at the maximization of the social welfare in a distribution network operated by a virtual power player that aggregates and manages the available energy resources. When facing a situation of excessive non-dispatchable generation, including wind power, real time pricing is applied in order to induce the increase of consumption so that wind curtailment is minimized. This method is especially useful when actual and day-ahead resources forecast differ significantly. The distribution network characteristics and concerns are addressed by including the network constraints in the optimization model. The proposed methodology has been implemented in GAMS optimization tool and its application is illustrated in this paper using a real 937-bus distribution network with 20.310 consumers and 548 distributed generators, some of them non-dispatchable and with must take contracts. The implemented scenario corresponds to a real day in Portuguese power system.
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Electricity markets are complex environments, involving a large number of different entities, with specific characteristics and objectives, making their decisions and interacting in a dynamic scene. Game-theory has been widely used to support decisions in competitive environments; therefore its application in electricity markets can prove to be a high potential tool. This paper proposes a new scenario analysis algorithm, which includes the application of game-theory, to evaluate and preview different scenarios and provide players with the ability to strategically react in order to exhibit the behavior that better fits their objectives. This model includes forecasts of competitor players’ actions, to build models of their behavior, in order to define the most probable expected scenarios. Once the scenarios are defined, game theory is applied to support the choice of the action to be performed. Our use of game theory is intended for supporting one specific agent and not for achieving the equilibrium in the market. MASCEM (Multi-Agent System for Competitive Electricity Markets) is a multi-agent electricity market simulator that models market players and simulates their operation in the market. The scenario analysis algorithm has been tested within MASCEM and our experimental findings with a case study based on real data from the Iberian Electricity Market are presented and discussed.
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In this work, the impact of distributed generation in the transmission expansion planning will be simulated through the performance of an optimization process for three different scenarios: the first without distributed generation, the second with distributed generation equivalent to 1% of the load, and the third with 5% of distributed generation. For modeling the expanding problem the load flow linearized method using genetic algorithms for optimization has been chosen. The test circuit used is a simplification of the south eastern Brazilian electricity system with 46 buses.
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Dissertação apresentada na Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia da Universidade Nova de Lisboa para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia e Gestão Industrial
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A gestão de redes informáticas converteu-se num fator vital para uma rede operar de forma eficiente, produtiva e lucrativa. A gestão envolve a monitorização e o controlo dos sistemas para que estes funcionam como o pretendido, ações de configuração, monitorização, reconfiguração dos componentes, são essenciais para o objetivo de melhorar o desempenho, diminuir o tempo de inatividade, melhor a segurança e efetuar contabilização. Paralelamente, a classificação de tráfego é um tema de bastante relevância em várias atividades relacionadas com as redes, tais como a previsão de QoS, segurança, monitorização, contabilização, planeamento de capacidade de backbones e deteção de invasão. A variação de determinados tipos de tráfego pode influenciar, decisões técnicas na área da gestão de redes, assim como decisões políticas e sociais. Neste trabalho pretende-se desenvolver um estudo dos vários protocolos, ferramentas de gestão e de classificação de tráfego disponíveis para apoiar a atividade de gestão. O estudo efetuado terminou com a proposta e implementação de uma solução de gestão adequado a um cenário real, bastante rico na diversidade de tecnologias e sistemas.
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Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Engenharia Física
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Objectives: The aim of this article is to analyze the factors associated with HIV testing among 767 sexually active women. Methods: Participants were administered several self-report questionnaires that assessed behavioral and psychosocial measures. Results: Overall, 59.8% of the participants reported ever having tested for HIV. Results show that higher levels of education, being pregnant or having been pregnant, concern about AIDS, AIDS knowledge, self-efficacy in condom negotiation and perception of no risk in partner significantly predicted the likelihood of testing among women. Attending the mass was negatively associated with HIV testing. Conclusions: These findings provide information that can be used in the development of a focused gender sensitive HIV prevention program to increase HIV testing.
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Women account for 30% of all AIDS cases reported to the Health Ministry in Portugal and most infections are acquired through unprotected heterosexual sex with infected partners. This study analyzed socio-demographic and psychosocial predictors of consistent condom use and the role of education as a moderator variable among Portuguese women attending family planning clinics. A cross-sectional study using interviewer-administered fully structured questionnaires was conducted among 767 sexually active women (ages 18–65). Logistic regression analyses were used to explore the association between consistent condom use and the predictor variables. Overall, 78.7% of the women were inconsistent condom users. The results showed that consistent condom use was predicted by marital status (being not married), having greater perceptions of condom negotiation self-efficacy, having preparatory safer sexual behaviors, and not using condoms only when practicing abstinence. Living with a partner and having lack of risk perception significantly predicted inconsistent condom use. Less educated women were less likely to use condoms even when they perceive being at risk. The full model explained 53% of the variance in consistent condom use. This study emphasizes the need for implementing effective prevention interventions in this population showing the importance of taking education into consideration.
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Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies.
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Os sistemas autónomos trazem como mais valia aos cenários de busca e salvamento a possibilidade de minimizar a presença de Humanos em situações de perigo e a capacidade de aceder a locais de difícil acesso. Na dissertação propõe-se endereçar novos métodos para perceção e navegação de veículos aéreos não tripulados (UAV), tendo como foco principal o planeamento de trajetórias e deteção de obstáculos. No que respeita à perceção foi desenvolvido um método para gerar clusters tendo por base os voxels gerados pelo Octomap. Na área de navegação, foram desenvolvidos dois novos métodos de planeamento de trajetórias, GPRM (Grid Probabilistic Roadmap) e PPRM (Particle Probabilistic Roadmap), que tem como método base para o seu desenvolvimento o PRM. O primeiro método desenvolvido, GPRM, espalha as partículas numa grid pré-definida, construindo posteriormente o roadmap na área determinada pela grid e com isto estima o trajeto mais curto até ao ponto destino. O segundo método desenvolvido, PPRM, espalha as partículas pelo cenário de aplicação, gera o roadmap considerando o mapa total e atribui uma probabilidade que irá permitir definir a trajetória otimizada. Para analisar a performance de cada método em comparação com o PRM, efetua-se a sua avaliação em três cenários distintos com recurso ao simulador MORSE.
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Trabalho de Projecto apresentado para cumprimento dos requisitos necessários à obtenção do grau de Mestre em Metropolização, Planeamento Estratégico e Sustentabilidade.
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Dissertação apresentada como requisito parcial para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Estatística e Gestão de Informação
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A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Finance from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics