Mathematical models for Isoptera (Insecta) mound growth

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Test systems and mathematical models for transmission network expansion planning

The data of four networks that can be used in carrying out comparative studies with methods for transmission network expansion planning are given. These networks are of various types and different levels of complexity. The main mathematical formulations used in transmission expansion studies-transportation models, hybrid models, DC power flow models, and disjunctive models are also summarised and compared. The main algorithm families are reviewed-both analytical, combinatorial and heuristic approaches. Optimal solutions are not yet known for some of the four networks when more accurate models (e.g. The DC model) are used to represent the power flow equations-the state of the art with regard to this is also summarised. This should serve as a challenge to authors searching for new, more efficient methods.

Risk-assessment algorithm and recommendations for venous thromboembolism prophylaxis in medical patients

The risk for venous thromboembolism (VTE) in medical patients is high, but risk assessment is rarely performed because there is not yet a good method to identify candidates for prophylaxis. Purpose: To perform a systematic review about VTE risk factors (RFs) in hospitalized medical patients and generate recommendations (RECs) for prophylaxis that can be implemented into practice. Data sources: A multidisciplinary group of experts from 12 Brazilian Medical Societies searched MEDLINE, Cochrane, and LILACS. Study selection: Two experts independently classified the evidence for each RF by its scientific quality in a standardized manner. A risk-assessment algorithm was created based on the results of the review. Data synthesis: Several VTE RFs have enough evidence to support RECs for prophylaxis in hospitalized medical patients (eg, increasing age, heart failure, and stroke). Other factors are considered adjuncts of risk (eg, varices, obesity, and infections). According to the algorithm, hospitalized medical patients ≥40 years-old with decreased mobility, and ≥1 RFs should receive chemoprophylaxis with heparin, provided they don't have contraindications. High prophylactic doses of unfractionated heparin or low-molecular-weight-heparin must be administered and maintained for 6-14 days. Conclusions: A multidisciplinary group generated evidence-based RECs and an easy-to-use algorithm to facilitate VTE prophylaxis in medical patients. © 2007 Rocha et al, publisher and licensee Dove Medical Press Ltd.

Use of mathematical models in the study of bodily growth in GIFT strain Nile tilapia

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

ECOTOXICITY AND ENVIRONMENTAL RISK ASSESSMENT OF LARVICIDES USED IN THE CONTROL OF Aedes aegypti TO Daphnia magna ( CRUSTACEA, CLADOCERA)

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Risk Assessment of the Introduction of H5N1 Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza as a Tool to be Applied in Prevention Strategy Plan

Risks of the introduction of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 through migratory birds to the main wintering site for wild birds in southern Brazil and its consequences were assessed. Likelihoods were estimated by a qualitative scale ranging from negligible to high. Northern migrants that breed in Alaska and regularly migrate to South America (primary Charadriiformes) can have contact with birds from affected areas in Asia. The likelihood of the introduction of HPAI H5N1 through migratory birds was found to be very low as it is a probability conditioned to successful transmission in breeding areas and the probabilities of an infected bird migrating and shedding the virus as far as southern Brazil. The probability of wild species becoming exposed to H5N1-infected birds is high as they nest with northern migrants from Alaska, whereas for backyard poultry it is moderate to high depending on proximity to wetlands and the presence of species that could increase the likelihood of contact with wild birds such as domestic duck. The magnitude of the biological and economic consequences of successful transmission to poultry or wild birds would be low to severe depending on the probability of the occurrence of outbreak scenarios described. As a result, the risk estimate is greater than negligible, and HPAI H5N1 prevention strategy in the region should always be carefully considered by the veterinary services in Brazil.

Risk assessment of PM2.5 to child residents in Brazilian Amazon region with biofuel production

Background: Exposure to fine fractions of particulate matter (PM2.5) is associated with increased hospital admissions and mortality for respiratory and cardiovascular disease in children and the elderly. This study aims to estimate the toxicological risk of PM2.5 from biomass burning in children and adolescents between the age of 6 and 14 in Tangara da Serra, a municipality of Subequatorial Brazilian Amazon. Methods: Risk assessment methodology was applied to estimate the risk quotient in two scenarios of exposure according to local seasonality. The potential dose of PM2.5 was estimated using the Monte Carlo simulation, stratifying the population by age, gender, asthma and Body Mass Index (BMI). Results: Male asthmatic children under the age of 8 at normal body rate had the highest risk quotient among the subgroups. The general potential average dose of PM2.5 was 1.95 mu g/kg.day (95% CI: 1.62 - 2.27) during the dry scenario and 0.32 mu g/kg. day (95% CI: 0.29 - 0.34) in the rainy scenario. During the dry season, children and adolescents showed a toxicological risk to PM2.5 of 2.07 mu g/kg. day (95% CI: 1.85 - 2.30). Conclusions: Children and adolescents living in the Subequatorial Brazilian Amazon region were exposed to high levels of PM2.5 resulting in toxicological risk for this multi-pollutant. The toxicological risk quotients of children in this region were comparable or higher to children living in metropolitan regions with PM2.5 air pollution above the recommended limits to human health.

Integrated ecological risk assessment of pesticides in tropical ecosystems: A case study with carbofuran in Brazil

The aim of the present study is to contribute an ecologically relevant assessment of the ecotoxicological effects of pesticide applications in agricultural areas in the tropics, using an integrated approach with information gathered from soil and aquatic compartments. Carbofuran, an insecticide/nematicide used widely on sugarcane crops, was selected as a model substance. To evaluate the toxic effects of pesticide spraying for soil biota, as well as the potential indirect effects on aquatic biota resulting from surface runoff and/or leaching, field and laboratory (using a cost-effective simulator of pesticide applications) trials were performed. Standard ecotoxicological tests were performed with soil (Eisenia andrei, Folsomia candida, and Enchytraeus crypticus) and aquatic (Ceriodaphnia silvestrii) organisms, using serial dilutions of soil, eluate, leachate, and runoff samples. Among soil organisms, sensitivity was found to be E. crypticus < E. andrei < F. candida. Among the aqueous extracts, mortality of C. silvestrii was extreme in runoff samples, whereas eluates were by far the least toxic samples. A generally higher toxicity was found in the bioassays performed with samples from the field trial, indicating the need for improvements in the laboratory simulator. However, the tool developed proved to be valuable in evaluating the toxic effects of pesticide spraying in soils and the potential risks for aquatic compartments. Environ. Toxicol. Chem. 2012;31:437-445. (C) 2011 SETAC

Parasitological risk assessment from wastewater reuse for disposal in soil in developing countries

The purpose of this work is to analyze the parasitological risks of treated wastewater reuse from a stabilization pond in the city of Piracicaba, in the State of Sao Paulo (Brazil), and the level of treatment required to protect public health. Samples were taken from raw and treated wastewater in stabilization ponds and submitted to a parasitological, microbiological and physicochemical analysis. The study revealed on treated wastewater the presence of Ascaris sp. and Entamoeba coli with an average density of 1 cysts L-1 and 6 eggs L-1, respectively. For Ascaris, the annual risks of infection due to the accidental ingestion of wastewater irrigation were 7.5 x 10(-2) in 208 days and 8.7 x 10(-2) in 240 days. For Total Coliforms and Escherichia coli in treated wastewater, the average density was 1.0 x 10(5) MPN/100 ml and 2.7 x 10(4) MPN/100 ml respectively, representing 99% and 94% removal efficiency, respectively. For BOD, COD, TS and TSS removal efficiency was 69, 80, 50 and 71%, respectively. The removal efficiency for nitrogen; ammonia nitrogen and total phosphate was 24, 19 and 68%, respectively. The average density of helminths eggs in treated wastewater is higher compared to the density of the limit value of <= 1 egg L-1 and tolerable risk is above the level recommended by the World Health Organization. Multiple barriers are necessary for the reduction of organic matter, chemical contaminants and parasites from treated wastewater. Standards for the sanitary control of treated wastewater to be reused in agricultural irrigation areas should be compiled for developing countries in order to minimize public health risks.

MATHEMATICAL MODELS AND POLYHEDRAL STUDIES FOR INTEGRAL SHEET METAL DESIGN

We deal with the optimization of the production of branched sheet metal products. New forming techniques for sheet metal give rise to a wide variety of possible profiles and possible ways of production. In particular, we show how the problem of producing a given profile geometry can be modeled as a discrete optimization problem. We provide a theoretical analysis of the model in order to improve its solution time. In this context we give the complete convex hull description of some substructures of the underlying polyhedron. Moreover, we introduce a new class of facet-defining inequalities that represent connectivity constraints for the profile and show how these inequalities can be separated in polynomial time. Finally, we present numerical results for various test instances, both real-world and academic examples.

Cellular and Molecular Biomarkers for Risk Assessment of Colorectal cancer

The detection of Colorectal Cancer (CRC), at early stages, is one of the proven strategies resulting in a higher cure rate. In recent years, several studies have appeared identifying potential cancer markers in serum, plasma and stool in an attempt to improve actual screening procedures. Thus, the aim of the study was (1) Evaluate MN frequency, (2) Evaluate plasma ultrafiltrate capacity to induce MN formation, (3) Evaluate SEPT9 and NOTCH3 promoter methylation profile in peripheral blood lymphocytes from subjects resulted positive to fecal occult blood test and examined by colonoscopy. MN frequency was significantly higher in subjects with histological diagnosis of CRC and adenoma than control (p ≤ 0.001 and p ≤ 0.01, respectively). About, CF-MN analysis, a statistically significant difference was observed between CRC and control (p ≤ 0.05). On the other hand, SEPT9 and NOTCH3 promoter methylation status was significantly lower in CRC subjects than controls; additionally, NOTCH3 promoter methylation status was significantly lower in CRC subjects than adenoma subjects (p ≤ 0.01). The results obtained allow conclude that MN frequency varies according CRC pathologic status and, together with other variables, is a valid biomarker for adenoma and CRC risk. Additionally, the plasma of patients affected with CRC not only serve as a biomarker for oxidative stress but also as biomarker of genetic damage correlated with the carcinogenic process that verifies in colon-rectum. SEPT9 and NOTCH3 promoter methylation status, at peripheral blood level, varies according hystopathological changes observed in colon-rectum, suggesting that promoter methylation profile of these genes could be a reliable biomarker for CRC risk.

From fall-risk assessment to fall detection: inertial sensors in the clinical routine and daily life

Falls are caused by complex interaction between multiple risk factors which may be modified by age, disease and environment. A variety of methods and tools for fall risk assessment have been proposed, but none of which is universally accepted. Existing tools are generally not capable of providing a quantitative predictive assessment of fall risk. The need for objective, cost-effective and clinically applicable methods would enable quantitative assessment of fall risk on a subject-specific basis. Tracking objectively falls risk could provide timely feedback about the effectiveness of administered interventions enabling intervention strategies to be modified or changed if found to be ineffective. Moreover, some of the fundamental factors leading to falls and what actually happens during a fall remain unclear. Objectively documented and measured falls are needed to improve knowledge of fall in order to develop more effective prevention strategies and prolong independent living. In the last decade, several research groups have developed sensor-based automatic or semi-automatic fall risk assessment tools using wearable inertial sensors. This approach may also serve to detect falls. At the moment, i) several fall-risk assessment studies based on inertial sensors, even if promising, lack of a biomechanical model-based approach which could provide accurate and more detailed measurements of interests (e.g., joint moments, forces) and ii) the number of published real-world fall data of older people in a real-world environment is minimal since most authors have used simulations with healthy volunteers as a surrogate for real-world falls. With these limitations in mind, this thesis aims i) to suggest a novel method for the kinematics and dynamics evaluation of functional motor tasks, often used in clinics for the fall-risk evaluation, through a body sensor network and a biomechanical approach and ii) to define the guidelines for a fall detection algorithm based on a real-world fall database availability.