A fuzzy reed-frost model for epidemic spreading

In this paper, we present a fuzzy approach to the Reed-Frost model for epidemic spreading taking into account uncertainties in the diagnostic of the infection. The heterogeneities in the infected group is based on the clinical signals of the individuals (symptoms, laboratorial exams, medical findings, etc.), which are incorporated into the dynamic of the epidemic. The infectivity level is time-varying and the classification of the individuals is performed through fuzzy relations. Simulations considering a real problem with data of the viral epidemic in a children daycare are performed and the results are compared with a stochastic Reed-Frost generalization

Padrões dietéticos e câncer oral e de faringe: um estudo caso-controle no Rio de Janeiro, Brasil

Investigou-se a associação entre padrões de dieta e câncer oral, como parte de um estudo multicêntrico latino-americano caso-controle de base hospitalar e incluiu 210 casos incidentes e 251 controles. Dados de consumo alimentar foram coletados por Questionário de Freqüência de Consumo Alimentar (QFCA). Análise fatorial identificou padrões alimentares, que foram categorizados em tercis. Calculou-se odds ratio (OR) com intervalo de 95 por cento de confiança (IC95 por cento ) por regressão logística múltipla não condicional. Os padrões "prudente", caracterizado em maioria por frutas e vegetais, e o padrão tradicional, por arroz e feijão, apresentaram associação inversa com o câncer oral para o mais elevado tercil, respectivamente: OR = 0,44; IC95 por cento : 0,25-0,75, valor de p de tendência (ptend) = 0,03; OR = 0,53; IC95 por cento : 0,30-0,93, ptend = 0,06. O padrão "lanches" não foi associado ao câncer oral. Além da proteção ao câncer oral conferida por dieta rica em vegetais e frutas, nossos dados sugerem que a dieta "tradicional" brasileira contendo em sua maioria arroz e feijão pode oferecer proteção ao câncer oral

Violência sexual como questão de saúde pública: importância da busca ao agressor

Apesar de predominar junto à população a idéia de que a violência sexual é praticada por pessoas desconhecidas, na realidade a maioria desses crimes é praticada por pessoa identificável pela vítima. Além de conseqüências físicas e psicológicas, também há risco em adquirir o vírus HIV. Para prevenção deste, em situação de risco, há orientação para uso da quimioprofilaxia anti-retroviral. Esse uso, por 28 dias, pode trazer efeitos adversos com intensidades variáveis. O conhecimento da sorologia anti-HIV do agressor torna-se fundamental para manter, ou suspender, com segurança, essa indicação. Este estudo descritivo, realizado no Conjunto Hospitalar de Sorocaba, teve como objetivo identificar os agressores e suas respectivas sorologias. Foi realizado a partir de fichas de notificação e os prontuários no período de julho de 2003 a dezembro de 2005. Encontraram-se 920 vítimas de violência sexual, com idades entre oito meses e 77 anos, havendo predomínio do sexo feminino (86,5 por cento). Dentre os agressores, 76 por cento foram referidos como identificáveis. Indicou-se profilaxia anti-retroviral para 24,9 por cento das vítimas. Para 80 (33,2 por cento) agressores localizados, a busca foi realizada através de contato telefônico. Encontrou-se 52,5 por cento em seus domicílios, 45 por cento em Presídio/Delegacia e 2,5 por cento no Pronto Socorro. Um agressor (1,3 por cento) apresentou sorologia positiva para HIV. As buscas encerraram-se, em sua maioria, em até seis dias (80 por cento), possibilitando a suspensão da quimioprofilaxia em 30,6 por cento dos casos. Concluiu-se que a busca ao denunciado permitiu conhecer sua sorologia anti-HIV e suspender, para um terço das vítimas, o uso da quimioprofilaxia anti-retroviral, diminuindo, com isso, a possibilidade de efeitos adversos

Resgate histórico do controle do tabagismo na Faculdade de Saúde Pública da Universidade de São Paulo: relato de uma experiência

A ação da Faculdade de Saúde Pública da Universidade de São Paulo na luta contra o tabagismo teve início em 1975, quando a instituição participou da III Conferência Mundial de Fumo e Saúde, realizada em New York (EUA). Depois de três décadas de trabalho ininterrupto, ela recebeu, em 2008, da Secretaria de Estado da Saúde de São Paulo, o selo prata de certificação de ambiente livre do tabaco. Nesse espaço de tempo, ao lado de um trabalho educativo, realizado corpo a corpo com docentes, funcionários e alunos, foram realizadas pesquisas, treinamentos e desenvolvido toda uma programação orientada pelo Ministério da Saúde / Instituto Nacional do Câncer. Foram também produzidas inúmeras monografias de mestrado, teses de doutorado e de livre docência, tendo como tema o tabagismo do ponto de vista educativo, social, médico e sanitário. Este artigo pretendeu fazer o relato dessa trajetória

Power Transformer Differential Protection Based on Clarke`s Transform and Fuzzy Systems

The power transformer is a piece of electrical equipment that needs continuous monitoring and fast protection since it is very expensive and an essential element for a power system to perform effectively. The most common protection technique used is the percentage differential logic, which provides discrimination between an internal fault and different operating conditions. Unfortunately, there are some operating conditions of power transformers that can affect the protection behavior and the power system stability. This paper proposes the development of a new algorithm to improve the differential protection performance by using fuzzy logic and Clarke`s transform. An electrical power system was modeled using Alternative Transients Program (ATP) software to obtain the operational conditions and fault situations needed to test the algorithm developed. The results were compared to a commercial relay for validation, showing the advantages of the new method.

Embedded DSP-Based Compact Fuzzy System and Its Application for Induction-Motor V/f Speed Control

This paper presents a compact embedded fuzzy system for three-phase induction-motor scalar speed control. The control strategy consists in keeping constant the voltage-frequency ratio of the induction-motor supply source. A fuzzy-control system is built on a digital signal processor, which uses speed error and speed-error variation to change both the fundamental voltage amplitude and frequency of a sinusoidal pulsewidth modulation inverter. An alternative optimized method for embedded fuzzy-system design is also proposed. The controller performance, in relation to reference and load-torque variations, is evaluated by experimental results. A comparative analysis with conventional proportional-integral controller is also achieved.

Combined heuristic with fuzzy system to transmission system expansion planning

A heuristic algorithm that employs fuzzy logic is proposed to the power system transmission expansion planning problem. The algorithm is based on the divide to conquer strategy, which is controlled by the fuzzy system. The algorithm provides high quality solutions with the use of fuzzy decision making, which is based on nondeterministic criteria to guide the search. The fuzzy system provides a self-adjusting mechanism that eliminates the manual adjustment of parameters to each system being solved. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Real-Time Voltage Regulation in Power Distribution System Using Fuzzy Control

Two different fuzzy approaches to voltage control in electric power distribution systems are introduced in this paper. The real-time controller in each case would act on power transformers equipped with under-load tap changers. Learning systems are employed to turn the voltage-control relays into adaptive devices. The scope of this study has been limited to the power distribution substation, and the voltage measurements and control actions are carried out on the secondary bus. The capacity of fuzzy systems to handle approximate data, together with their unique ability to interpret qualitative information, make it possible to design voltage-control strategies that satisfy the requirements of the Brazilian regulatory bodies and the real concerns of the electric power distribution companies. Fuzzy control systems based on these two strategies have been implemented and the test results were highly satisfactory.

Fuzzy pole placement based on piecewise Lyapunov functions

This paper presents a controller design method for fuzzy dynamic systems based on piecewise Lyapunov functions with constraints on the closed-loop pole location. The main idea is to use switched controllers to locate the poles of the system to obtain a satisfactory transient response. It is shown that the global fuzzy system satisfies the requirements for the design and that the control law can be obtained by solving a set of linear matrix inequalities, which can be efficiently solved with commercially available softwares. An example is given to illustrate the application of the proposed method. Copyright (C) 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Fuzzy Control System for Voltage Regulation In Power Transformers

A fuzzy control strategy for voltage regulation in electric power distribution systems is introduced in this article. This real-time controller would act on power transformers equipped with under-load tap changers. The fuzzy system was employed to turn the voltage-control relays into adaptive devices. The scope of the present study has been limited to the power distribution substation, and both the voltage measurements and control actions are carried out on the secondary bus. The capacity of fuzzy systems to handle approximate data, together with their unique ability to interpret qualitative information, make it possible to design voltage control strategies that satisfy both the requirements of the Brazilian regulatory bodies and the real concerns of the electric power distribution companies. A prototype based on the fuzzy control strategy proposed in this paper has also been implemented for validation purposes and its experimental results were highly satisfactory.

A classification methodology for the risk of weed infestation using fuzzy logic

Despite modern weed control practices, weeds continue to be a threat to agricultural production. Considering the variability of weeds, a classification methodology for the risk of infestation in agricultural zones using fuzzy logic is proposed. The inputs for the classification are attributes extracted from estimated maps for weed seed production and weed coverage using kriging and map analysis and from the percentage of surface infested by grass weeds, in order to account for the presence of weed species with a high rate of development and proliferation. The output for the classification predicts the risk of infestation of regions of the field for the next crop. The risk classification methodology described in this paper integrates analysis techniques which may help to reduce costs and improve weed control practices. Results for the risk classification of the infestation in a maize crop field are presented. To illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed system, the risk of infestation over the entire field is checked against the yield loss map estimated by kriging and also with the average yield loss estimated from a hyperbolic model.

Urban upgrading interventions and engaging residents in fuzzy management: Case studies from Novos Alagados, Salvador, Brazil

International theory and practice have promoted state-assisted upgrading of `informal` urban areas worldwide since the late 1970s, with various forms of monitoring and assessment of impact. Two independent studies of how residents perceive and evaluate such interventions have recently been undertaken for neighbouring parts of the upgraded area of Novos Alagados on the Itapagipe peninsula in the northwestern part of Salvador, Brazil`s third largest city. These studies start from different premises and have been implemented in very different ways, but both have the objective of permitting the `voice` of the residents to be heard concerning the upgrading process. Comparing them helps highlight the essential `fuzzy` nature of values concerning urban interventions of this nature and leaves us with thought-provoking questions concerning the role of local society in relation to the state in urban development, and the potential this has for on-going forms of urban management in cities which are emerging globally. Crown Copyright (C) 2009 Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Dweller perception using fuzzy logic for slum upgrading

A large number of initiatives in cities in Brazil - including slum clearance and upgrading - have been undertaken over the years in an effort to ameliorate the problems arising from informal occupation; unfortunately, however, little is known about the related performance outcomes. Careful appraisal of the results of such initiatives is thus called for, covering evaluations of dwellers` perceptions of the upgraded environments. Among the available evaluation methods, post-occupancy evaluation (POE) is commonly employed, although it fails adequately to reflect prevailing subjective concepts of quality. The present paper contains the partial findings of a research exercise aimed at developing an original method, using fuzzy logic, for urban environmental quality evaluation in informally occupied areas on the basis of combining quantitative indicators and dweller perception. It combines POE with fuzzy logic in order to develop tools that can better model the uncertain information that emerges from that kind of study. This paper aims to introduce an uncertainty measure used in order to identify the strengths and weaknesses of slum upgrading projects. The results show that it is possible to quantify certainty degrees in the findings and to define if additional information is needed.

Decision making in fuzzy environment and multicriteria power engineering problems

This paper presents results of research into the use of the Bellman-Zadeh approach to decision making in a fuzzy environment for solving multicriteria power engineering problems. The application of the approach conforms to the principle of guaranteed result and provides constructive lines in computationally effective obtaining harmonious solutions on the basis of solving associated maxmin problems. The presented results are universally applicable and are already being used to solve diverse classes of power engineering problems. It is illustrated by considering problems of power and energy shortage allocation, power system operation, optimization of network configuration in distribution systems, and energetically effective voltage control in distribution systems. (c) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.