Reservoir Management For Flood And Drought Protection Using Infinite Horizon Model Predictive Control

Model Predictive Control (MPC) is a control method that solves in real time an optimal control problem over a finite horizon. The finiteness of the horizon is both the reason of MPC's success and its main limitation. In operational water resources management, MPC has been in fact successfully employed for controlling systems with a relatively short memory, such as canals, where the horizon length is not an issue. For reservoirs, which have generally a longer memory, MPC applications are presently limited to short term management only. Short term reservoir management can be effectively used to deal with fast process, such as floods, but it is not capable of looking sufficiently ahead to handle long term issues, such as drought. To overcome this limitation, we propose an Infinite Horizon MPC (IH-MPC) solution that is particularly suitable for reservoir management. We propose to structure the input signal by use of orthogonal basis functions, therefore reducing the optimization argument to a finite number of variables, and making the control problem solvable in a reasonable time. We applied this solution for the management of the Manantali Reservoir. Manantali is a yearly reservoir located in Mali, on the Senegal river, affecting water systems of Mali, Senegal, and Mauritania. The long term horizon offered by IH-MPC is necessary to deal with the strongly seasonal climate of the region.

Avaliação de compostos com actividade inibidora da glicoproteína-P

A resistência a múltiplos fármacos é um grande problema na terapia anti-cancerígena, sendo a glicoproteína-P (P-gp) uma das responsáveis por esta resistência. A realização deste trabalho incidiu principalmente no desenvolvimento de modelos matemáticos/estatísticos e “químicos”. Para os modelos matemáticos/estatísticos utilizamos métodos de Machine Learning como o Support Vector Machine (SVM) e o Random Forest, (RF) em relação aos modelos químicos utilizou-se farmacóforos. Os métodos acima mencionados foram aplicados a diversas proteínas P-gp, p53 e complexo p53-MDM2, utilizando duas famílias: as pifitrinas para a p53 e flavonóides para P-gp e, em menor medida, um grupo diversificado de moléculas de diversas famílias químicas. Nos modelos obtidos pelo SVM quando aplicados à P-gp e à família dos flavonóides, obtivemos bons valores através do kernel Radial Basis Function (RBF), com precisão de conjunto de treino de 94% e especificidade de 96%. Quanto ao conjunto de teste com previsão de 70% e especificidade de 67%, sendo que o número de falsos negativos foi o mais baixo comparativamente aos restantes kernels. Aplicando o RF à família dos flavonóides verificou-se que o conjunto de treino apresenta 86% de precisão e uma especificidade de 90%, quanto ao conjunto de teste obtivemos uma previsão de 70% e uma especificidade de 60%, existindo a particularidade de o número de falsos negativos ser o mais baixo. Repetindo o procedimento anterior (RF) e utilizando um total de 63 descritores, os resultados apresentaram valores inferiores obtendo-se para o conjunto de treino 79% de precisão e 82% de especificidade. Aplicando o modelo ao conjunto de teste obteve-se 70% de previsão e 60% de especificidade. Comparando os dois métodos, escolhemos o método SVM com o kernel RBF como modelo que nos garante os melhores resultados de classificação. Aplicamos o método SVM à P-gp e a um conjunto de moléculas não flavonóides que são transportados pela P-gp, obteve-se bons valores através do kernel RBF, com precisão de conjunto de treino de 95% e especificidade de 93%. Quanto ao conjunto de teste, obtivemos uma previsão de 70% e uma especificidade de 69%, existindo a particularidade de o número de falsos negativos ser o mais baixo. Aplicou-se o método do farmacóforo a três alvos, sendo estes, um conjunto de inibidores flavonóides e de substratos não flavonóides para a P-gp, um grupo de piftrinas para a p53 e um conjunto diversificado de estruturas para a ligação da p53-MDM2. Em cada um dos quatro modelos de farmacóforos obtidos identificou-se três características, sendo que as características referentes ao anel aromático e ao dador de ligações de hidrogénio estão presentes em todos os modelos obtidos. Realizando o rastreio em diversas bases de dados utilizando os modelos, obtivemos hits com uma grande diversidade estrutural.

The combination of neural estimates in prediction and decision problems

In this dissertation, different ways of combining neural predictive models or neural-based forecasts are discussed. The proposed approaches consider mostly Gaussian radial basis function networks, which can be efficiently identified and estimated through recursive/adaptive methods. Two different ways of combining are explored to get a final estimate – model mixing and model synthesis –, with the aim of obtaining improvements both in terms of efficiency and effectiveness. In the context of model mixing, the usual framework for linearly combining estimates from different models is extended, to deal with the case where the forecast errors from those models are correlated. In the context of model synthesis, and to address the problems raised by heavily nonstationary time series, we propose hybrid dynamic models for more advanced time series forecasting, composed of a dynamic trend regressive model (or, even, a dynamic harmonic regressive model), and a Gaussian radial basis function network. Additionally, using the model mixing procedure, two approaches for decision-making from forecasting models are discussed and compared: either inferring decisions from combined predictive estimates, or combining prescriptive solutions derived from different forecasting models. Finally, the application of some of the models and methods proposed previously is illustrated with two case studies, based on time series from finance and from tourism.

Um modelo matemático baseado em wavelets para análise do método térmico de recuperação de óleo pesado aplicando irradiação eletromagnética

This work proposes a model to investigate the use of a cylindrical antenna used in the thermal method of recovering through electromagnetic radiation of high-viscosity oil. The antenna has a simple geometry, adapted dipole type, and it can be modelled by using Maxwell s equation. The wavelet transforms are used as basis functions and applied in conjunction with the method of moments to obtain the current distribution in the antenna. The electric field, power and temperature distribution are carefully calculated for the analysis of the antenna as electromagnetic heating. The energy performance is analyzed based on thermo-fluid dynamic simulations at field scale, and through the adaptation in the Steam Thermal and Advanced Processes Reservoir Simulator (STARS) by Computer Modelling Group (CMG). The model proposed and the numerical results obtained are stable and presented good agreement with the results reported in the specialized literature

Comparison of logistic and neural network models to fit to the egg production curve of White Leghorn hens

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Análise de superfícies seletivas de freqüência para aplicações em ondas milimétricas

This work consists in the development of a theoretical and numerical analysis for frequency selective surfaces (FSS) structures with conducting patch elements, such as rectangular patches, thin dipoles and cross dipoles, on anisotropic dielectric substrates. The analysis is developed for millimeter wave band applications. The analytical formulation is developed in the spectral domain, by using a rigorous technique known as equivalent transmission line method, or immitance approach. The numerical analysis is completed through the use of the Galerkin's technique in the Fourier transform domain, using entire-domain basis functions. In the last decades, several sophisticated analytical techniques have been developed for FSS structure applications. Within these applications, it can be emphasized the use of FSS structures on reflecting antennas and bandpass radomes. In the analysis, the scattered fields of the FSS geometry are related to the surface induced currents on the conducting patches. After the formulation of the scattering problem, the numerical solution is obtained by using the moment method. The choice of the basis functions plays a very important role in the numerical efficiency of the numerical method, once they should provide a very good approximation to the real current distributions on the FSS analyzed structure. Thereafter, the dyadic Green's function components are obtained in order to evaluate the basis functions unknown coefficients. To accomplish that, the Galerkin's numerical technique is used. Completing the formulation, the incident fields are determined through the incident potential, and as a consequence the FSS transmission and reflection characteristics are determined, as function of the resonant frequency and structural parameters. The main objective of this work was to analyze FSS structures with conducting patch elements, such as thin dipoles, cross dipoles and rectangular patches, on anisotropic dielectric substrates, for high frequency applications. Therefore, numerical results for the FSS structure main characteristics were obtained in the millimeter wave bando Some of these FSS characteristics are the resonant

Análise de superfícies seletivas de freqüência através do método dos potenciais vetorias de Hertz

This work presents a theoretical and numerical analysis of Frequency Selective Surfaces (FSS) with elements as rectangular patch, thin dipole and crossed dipole mounted on uniaxial anisotropic dielectric substrate layers for orientations of the optical axis along x, y and z directions. The analysis of these structures is accomplished by combination of the Hertz vector potentials method and the Galerkin's technique, in the Fourier transform-domain, using entire¬domain basis functions. This study consists in the use of one more technique for analysis of FSS on anisotropic dielectric substrate. And presents as the main contribution the introduction of one more project parameter to determinate the transmission and reflection characteristics of periodic structures, from the use of anisotropic dielectric with orientations of the crystal optical axis along x, y and z directions. To validate this analysis, the numerical results of this work are compared to those obtained by other authors, for FSS structures on anisotropic and isotropic dielectric substrates. Also are compared experimental results and the numerical correspondent ones for the FSS isotropic case. The technique proposed in this work is accurate and efficient. ln a second moment, curves are presented for the transmission and reflection characteristics of the FSS structures using conducting patch elements mounted on uniaxial anisotropic dielectric substrate layers with optical axis oriented along x, y and z directions. From analysis of these curves, the performance of the considered FSS structures as function of the optical axis orientation is described

Análise de onda completa de superfície seletiva em freqüência do tipo anteparo duplo

This work presents a theoretical analysis and numerical and experimental results of the scattering characteristics of frequency selective surfaces, using elements of type patch perfectly conductor. The structures are composed of two frequency selective surfaces on isotropic dielectric substrates cascaded, separated by a layer of air. The analysis is performed using the method of equivalent transmission line in combination with the Galerkin method, to determine the transmission and reflection characteristics of the structures analyzed. Specifically, the analysis uses the impedance method, which models the structure by an equivalent circuit, and applies the theory of transmission lines to determine the dyadic Green's function for the cascade structure. This function relates the incident field and surface current densities. These fields are determined algebraically by means of potential incidents and the imposition of the continuity of the fields in the dielectric interfaces. The Galerkin method is applied to the numerical determination of the unknown weight coefficients and hence the unknown densities of surface currents, which are expanded in terms of known basis functions multiplied by these weight coefficients. From the determination of these functions, it becomes possible to obtain numerical scattered fields at the top and bottom of the structures and characteristics of transmission and reflection of these structures. At work, we present numerical and experimental results for the characteristics of transmission and reflection. Comparisons were made with other results presented in literature, and it was observed a good agreement in the cases presented suggestions continuity of the work are presented

Sistema inteligente para detecção de manchas de óleo na superfície marinha através de imagens de SAR

Oil spill on the sea, accidental or not, generates enormous negative consequences for the affected area. The damages are ambient and economic, mainly with the proximity of these spots of preservation areas and/or coastal zones. The development of automatic techniques for identification of oil spots on the sea surface, captured through Radar images, assist in a complete monitoring of the oceans and seas. However spots of different origins can be visualized in this type of imaging, which is a very difficult task. The system proposed in this work, based on techniques of digital image processing and artificial neural network, has the objective to identify the analyzed spot and to discern between oil and other generating phenomena of spot. Tests in functional blocks that compose the proposed system allow the implementation of different algorithms, as well as its detailed and prompt analysis. The algorithms of digital image processing (speckle filtering and gradient), as well as classifier algorithms (Multilayer Perceptron, Radial Basis Function, Support Vector Machine and Committe Machine) are presented and commented.The final performance of the system, with different kind of classifiers, is presented by ROC curve. The true positive rates are considered agreed with the literature about oil slick detection through SAR images presents

Modelagem de Superfícies Seletivas de Freqüência e Antenas de Microfita utilizando Redes Neurais Artificiais

This work has as main objective the application of Artificial Neural Networks, ANN, in the resolution of problems of RF /microwaves devices, as for example the prediction of the frequency response of some structures in an interest region. Artificial Neural Networks, are presently a alternative to the current methods of analysis of microwaves structures. Therefore they are capable to learn, and the more important to generalize the acquired knowledge, from any type of available data, keeping the precision of the original technique and adding the low computational cost of the neural models. For this reason, artificial neural networks are being increasily used for modeling microwaves devices. Multilayer Perceptron and Radial Base Functions models are used in this work. The advantages/disadvantages of these models and the referring algorithms of training of each one are described. Microwave planar devices, as Frequency Selective Surfaces and microstrip antennas, are in evidence due the increasing necessities of filtering and separation of eletromagnetic waves and the miniaturization of RF devices. Therefore, it is of fundamental importance the study of the structural parameters of these devices in a fast and accurate way. The presented results, show to the capacities of the neural techniques for modeling both Frequency Selective Surfaces and antennas

Análise sísmica usando transformada de Curvelet

Oil prospecting is one of most complex and important features of oil industry Direct prospecting methods like drilling well logs are very expensive, in consequence indirect methods are preferred. Among the indirect prospecting techniques the seismic imaging is a relevant method. Seismic method is based on artificial seismic waves that are generated, go through the geologic medium suffering diffraction and reflexion and return to the surface where they are recorded and analyzed to construct seismograms. However, the seismogram contains not only actual geologic information, but also noise, and one of the main components of the noise is the ground roll. Noise attenuation is essential for a good geologic interpretation of the seismogram. It is common to study seismograms by using time-frequency transformations that map the seismic signal into a frequency space where it is easier to remove or attenuate noise. After that, data is reconstructed in the original space in such a way that geologic structures are shown in more detail. In addition, the curvelet transform is a new and effective spectral transformation that have been used in the analysis of complex data. In this work, we employ the curvelet transform to represent geologic data using basis functions that are directional in space. This particular basis can represent more effectively two dimensional objects with contours and lines. The curvelet analysis maps real space into frequencies scales and angular sectors in such way that we can distinguish in detail the sub-spaces where is the noise and remove the coefficients corresponding to the undesired data. In this work we develop and apply the denoising analysis to remove the ground roll of seismograms. We apply this technique to a artificial seismogram and to a real one. In both cases we obtain a good noise attenuation

Estudo da adsorção de hidrogênio e sulfeto na superfície de paládio: aspectos experimentais (eletroquímica) e teóricos (ab initio e Teoria do Funcional da Densidade)

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

A DOE based approach for the design of RBF artificial neural networks applied to prediction of surface roughness in AISI 52100 hardened Steel turning

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Monte Carlo investigations of intermolecular interactions in water-amide mixtures

Monte Carlo simulations of water-amides (amide=fonnamide-FOR, methylfonnamide-NMF and dimethylformamide-DMF) solutions have been carried out in the NpT ensemble at 308 K and 1 atm. The structure and excess enthalpy of the mixtures as a function of the composition have been investigated. The TIP4P model was used for simulating water and six-site models previously optimized in this laboratory were used for simulating the liquid amides. The intermolecular interaction energy was calculated using the classical 6-12 Lennard-Jones potential plus a Coulomb term. The interaction energy between solute and solvent has been partitioned what leads to a better understanding of the behavior of the enthalpy of mixture obtained for the three solutions experimentally. Radial distribution functions for the water-amides correlations permit to explore the intermolecular interactions between the molecules. The results show that three, two and one hydrogen bonds between the water and the amide molecules are formed in the FOR, NMF and DMF-water solutions, respectively. These H-bonds are, respectively, stronger for DMF-water, NMF-water and FOR-water. In the NMF-water solution, the interaction between the methyl group of the NMF and the oxygen of the water plays a role in the stabilization of the aqueous solution quite similar to that of an H-bond in the FOR-water solution. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Monte Carlo thermodynamic and structural properties of the TIP4P water model: dependence on the computational conditions

Classical Monte Carlo simulations were carried out on the NPT ensemble at 25°C and 1 atm, aiming to investigate the ability of the TIP4P water model [Jorgensen, Chandrasekhar, Madura, Impey and Klein; J. Chem. Phys., 79 (1983) 926] to reproduce the newest structural picture of liquid water. The results were compared with recent neutron diffraction data [Soper; Bruni and Ricci; J. Chem. Phys., 106 (1997) 247]. The influence of the computational conditions on the thermodynamic and structural results obtained with this model was also analyzed. The findings were compared with the original ones from Jorgensen et al [above-cited reference plus Mol. Phys., 56 (1985) 1381]. It is notice that the thermodynamic results are dependent on the boundary conditions used, whereas the usual radial distribution functions g(O/O(r)) and g(O/H(r)) do not depend on them.