975 resultados para Prophets of Rain


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A collection of miscellaneous pamphlets on religion.

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A large portion of the world's poor farm in rainfed systems where the water supply is unpredictable and droughts are common. In Thailand there are approximately 6.2 million ha of rain fed lowland rice, which account for 67% of the country's total rice-growing area. This rice system is often characterised by too much and too little water in the same season. Farmers' estimates of their annual losses to drought are as high as 45% in the upper parts of the toposequence. In contrast to irrigated rice systems, gains from crop improvement of rainfed rice have been modest, in part because there has been little effort to breed and select for drought tolerance for the target rainfed environments. The crop improvement strategy being used in Thailand considers three mechanisms that influence yield in the drought prone targets: yield potential as an important mechanism for mild drought (where yield loss is less than 50%), drought escape (appropriate phenology) and drought tolerance traits of leaf water potential, sterility, flower delay and drought response index for more severe drought conditions. Genotypes are exposed to managed drought environments for selection of drought tolerant genotypes. A marker assisted selection (MAS) scheme has been developed and applied for selection of progenies in the backcrossing program. The plant breeding program uses rapid generation advance techniques that enable early yield testing in the target population of environments (TPE) through inter-station (multi-location yield testing) and on-farm trials. A farmer participatory approach has been used to identify the TPE for the breeding program. Four terrace paddy levels have been identified, upper (drought), middle (drought prone to favorable) and lower (flooded). This paper reports the change in the breeding program for the drought prone tainted lowland rice environments of North and Northeast Thailand by incorporating our knowledge on adaptation and on response of rice to drought. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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A large portion of the world’s poor farm in rainfed systems where the water supply is unpredictable and droughts are common. In Thailand there are approximately 6.2 million ha of rain fed lowland rice which account for 67% of the country’s total rice-growing area. This rice system is often characterised by too much and too little water in the same season. Farmers’ estimates of their annual losses to drought are as high as 45% in the upper parts of the toposequence. In contrast to irrigated rice systems, gains from crop improvement of rainfed rice have been modest, in part because there has been little effort to breed and select for drought tolerance for the target rainfed environments. The crop improvement strategy being used in Thailand considers three mechanisms that influence yield in the drought prone targets: yield potential as an important mechanism for mild drought (where yield loss is less than 50%), drought escape (appropriate phenology) and drought tolerance traits of leaf water potential, sterility, flower delay and drought response index for more severe drought conditions. Genotypes are exposed to managed drought environments for selection of drought tolerant genotypes. A marker assisted selection (MAS) scheme has been developed and applied for selection of progenies in the backcrossing program. The plant breeding program uses rapid generation advance techniques that enable early yield testing in the target population of environments (TPE) through inter-station (multi-location yield testing) and on-farm trials. A farmer participatory approach has been used to identify the TPE for the breeding program. Four terrace paddy levels have been identified, upper (drought), middle (drought prone to favorable) and lower (flooded). This paper reports the change in the breeding program for the drought prone rainfed lowland rice environments of North and Northeast Thailand by incorporating our knowledge on adaptation and on response of rice to drought.

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A presente dissertação de mestrado em Literatura e Religião no Mundo Bíblico tem por objetivo realizar um comentário exegético e hermenêutico de um texto reconhecido como profético e sua relação no plano teológico, antropológico e literário com o universo sapiencial israelita no período pós-exílico. Trata-se do estudo de Miquéias 6,1-8, cujo foco de investigação desenvolveu-se a partir da análise do discurso e da hipótese de confluência de gêneros literários, a saber, o profético e o sapiencial. Considerado sob os aspectos formais, contextuais e de conteúdo antropo teológico, o texto estudado apresenta-se como resultado da composição de diversos gêneros literários e manifesta, internamente, conflitos de teologias que vão desde a interpretação da própria história de Israel até a prática religiosa com suas concepções de Deus. Miquéias 6,1-8, interpretado aqui a partir de metodologias exegéticas modernas e abordagens contextuais e antropológicas, configura-se como uma verdadeira síntese de interpretação deuteronomista não hegemônica dos eventos do êxodo e da mensagem dos profetas bíblicos do século VIII aeC Miquéias, Amós, Oséias e Isaías. Estamos diante de um texto que se apresenta, ao mesmo tempo, coeso e portador de diferentes universos e vozes em sua composição. Seu discurso, cujo teor nasce do conflito entre projetos e grupos no período pós-exílico, resgata memórias antigas de um êxodo que passa por sujeitos marginais e reinterpreta a crítica profética em sua função de discernimento ético e teológico, porém, no formato sapiencial. Pela profundidade sócio teológica e pela proposta não sacrificial de seu discurso, Miquéias 6,1-8 tem sido um texto continuamente revisitado no interior da Teologia da Libertação na América Latina, inspirando boa parte de sua produção.

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A partir da análise exegética de Mateus 6.19-21, este trabalho aborda as diferenças sócio-econômicas que existiram entre o grupo que deu origem ao evangelho de Mateus e aquele que gerou a versão primitiva deste pequeno texto no evangelho Q. Nesta investigação procuramos por peculiaridades mateanas, que servem especialmente para a reconstrução de um grupo judaico-cristão que existiu numa zona urbana da Galiléia nas últimas décadas do século I. A escolha de Mateus 6.19-21, que faz parte de um agrupamento de textos diversos que juntos formam uma espécie de estatuto econômico do grupo em Mt 6.19-34, nos conduzirá à conclusão de que diante de sanções sócio-econômicas duramente impostas pelos judeus não cristãos que consideravam o grupo mateano herético , a tradição que privilegia a pobreza, típica dos profetas itinerantes do movimento de Jesus, é relida pelo evangelho de Mateus para incentivar a caridade ilimitada também entre os membros do grupo mateano.

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This work introduces a new variational Bayes data assimilation method for the stochastic estimation of precipitation dynamics using radar observations for short term probabilistic forecasting (nowcasting). A previously developed spatial rainfall model based on the decomposition of the observed precipitation field using a basis function expansion captures the precipitation intensity from radar images as a set ofrain cells’. The prior distributions for the basis function parameters are carefully chosen to have a conjugate structure for the precipitation field model to allow a novel variational Bayes method to be applied to estimate the posterior distributions in closed form, based on solving an optimisation problem, in a spirit similar to 3D VAR analysis, but seeking approximations to the posterior distribution rather than simply the most probable state. A hierarchical Kalman filter is used to estimate the advection field based on the assimilated precipitation fields at two times. The model is applied to tracking precipitation dynamics in a realistic setting, using UK Met Office radar data from both a summer convective event and a winter frontal event. The performance of the model is assessed both traditionally and using probabilistic measures of fit based on ROC curves. The model is shown to provide very good assimilation characteristics, and promising forecast skill. Improvements to the forecasting scheme are discussed

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The liana Artabotrys hexapetalus (L.f.) Bhand., which is widely planted in the Tropics and native to African rain forests, produced new reiterations (new leader shoots) normally and after damage induced by Hurricane Andrew (August 24, 1992). In each new orthotropic shoot, there is a gradient in lateral branch structures from basal thorns, to vegetative leafy branches, to distal leafy flowering branches. We noted that reiterations developing in shade had more thorns than similar reiterations developing in full sun. Tents with clear (66% photosynthetically active radiation [PAR]) and shaded plastic film (12%–14% PAR) were placed over nodes when the axillary buds began to expand to produce reiteration shoots. After 2 mo of growth inside the tents and in the open, the types of lateral outgrowths (thorn vs. branch) were recorded. Shoots in spectrally neutral shade (red to far red of full sun) and spectrally altered shade (red to far red of canopy shade) produced significantly more thorns at the lower nodes of the shoots as compared to those in full sun. Shoots in control clear plastic tents were the same as those in full sun. We conclude that the fate of lateral bud development is controlled by irradiance (light level) but not by light quality. Increased thorn production in shade could be advantageous to plants growing in the deep shade of rain forests. Thorns in the self-shaded regions of the plant, and well below the forest canopy, could aid in protection from herbivory and in climbing by acting as hooks.

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Damages during extreme wind events highlight the weaknesses of mechanical fasteners at the roof-to-wall connections in residential timber frame buildings. The allowable capacity of the metal fasteners is based on results of unidirectional component testing that do not simulate realistic tri-axial aerodynamic loading effects. The first objective of this research was to simulate hurricane effects and study hurricane-structure interaction at full-scale, facilitating better understanding of the combined impacts of wind, rain, and debris on inter-component connections at spatial and temporal scales. The second objective was to evaluate the performance of a non-intrusive roof-to-wall connection system using fiber reinforced polymer (FRP) materials and compare its load capacity to the capacity of an existing metal fastener under simulated aerodynamic loads. ^ The Wall of Wind (WoW) testing performed using FRP connections on a one-story gable-roof timber structure instrumented with a variety of sensors, was used to create a database on aerodynamic and aero-hydrodynamic loading on roof-to-wall connections tested under several parameters: angles of attack, wind-turbulence content, internal pressure conditions, with and without effects of rain. Based on the aerodynamic loading results obtained from WoW tests, sets of three force components (tri-axial mean loads) were combined into a series of resultant mean forces, which were used to test the FRP and metal connections in the structures laboratory up to failure. A new component testing system and test protocol were developed for testing fasteners under simulated triaxial loading as opposed to uni-axial loading. The tri-axial and uni-axial test results were compared for hurricane clips. Also, comparison was made between tri-axial load capacity of FRP and metal connections. ^ The research findings demonstrate that the FRP connection is a viable option for use in timber roof-to-wall connection system. Findings also confirm that current testing methods of mechanical fasteners tend to overestimate the actual load capacities of a connector. Additionally, the research also contributes to the development a new testing protocol for fasteners using tri-axial simultaneous loads based on the aerodynamic database obtained from the WoW testing. ^

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Damages during extreme wind events highlight the weaknesses of mechanical fasteners at the roof-to-wall connections in residential timber frame buildings. The allowable capacity of the metal fasteners is based on results of unidirectional component testing that do not simulate realistic tri-axial aerodynamic loading effects. The first objective of this research was to simulate hurricane effects and study hurricane-structure interaction at full-scale, facilitating better understanding of the combined impacts of wind, rain, and debris on inter-component connections at spatial and temporal scales. The second objective was to evaluate the performance of a non-intrusive roof-to-wall connection system using fiber reinforced polymer (FRP) materials and compare its load capacity to the capacity of an existing metal fastener under simulated aerodynamic loads. The Wall of Wind (WoW) testing performed using FRP connections on a one-story gable-roof timber structure instrumented with a variety of sensors, was used to create a database on aerodynamic and aero-hydrodynamic loading on roof-to-wall connections tested under several parameters: angles of attack, wind-turbulence content, internal pressure conditions, with and without effects of rain. Based on the aerodynamic loading results obtained from WoW tests, sets of three force components (tri-axial mean loads) were combined into a series of resultant mean forces, which were used to test the FRP and metal connections in the structures laboratory up to failure. A new component testing system and test protocol were developed for testing fasteners under simulated tri-axial loading as opposed to uni-axial loading. The tri-axial and uni-axial test results were compared for hurricane clips. Also, comparison was made between tri-axial load capacity of FRP and metal connections. The research findings demonstrate that the FRP connection is a viable option for use in timber roof-to-wall connection system. Findings also confirm that current testing methods of mechanical fasteners tend to overestimate the actual load capacities of a connector. Additionally, the research also contributes to the development a new testing protocol for fasteners using tri-axial simultaneous loads based on the aerodynamic database obtained from the WoW testing.

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Droughts are climatic phenomena whose frequency has increased in the last decades and also compromised drinkable water supplies in semiarid regions. The lack of rain combined with high evaporation rates promotes a significant reduction of the volume of reservoirs in these regions. Shallower conditions favors nutrients concentration and phytoplankton overgrowth, including potentially toxic cyanobacteria blooming. Therefore, there is a tendency to the intensification of eutrophication in those reservoirs during drought periods. Phytoplankton can respond quickly to environmental conditions related to light and nutrient availability by changes in algal biomass and composition, therefore it is considered a good predictor of environmental variables. Two functional approaches - Reynolds’s Functional Groups (FG) and Kruk’s Morphologically Based Functional Groups (MBFG) - were used to assess which environmental variables were responsible for phytoplankton dynamics, in addition to compare which functional approach explains environmental changes better. This study highlights that the reduction of 90% in the volume of a tropical reservoir of Brazilian semi-arid region, as well as light limitation and nutrient increase, can promote phytoplankton overgrowth. Multivariate analyses using both functional approaches indicated a clear separation between high volumes and low volumes conditions, showing that light and nutrient availability were the main variables that better explained the combination of functional groups. The composition of phytoplankton assemblage changed from species of meso-eutrophic habitats (FG: F and J; MBFG: VI), to organisms of eutrophic and turbid environments (FG: SN and M; MBFG: VIII and VII) during shallower conditions. Both ecological approaches described properly the phytoplankton dynamics according to light and trophic state alterations related to the water volume reduction, therefore they can be considered as equivalent approaches for using in similar environments.

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This dissertation consists of three distinct components: (1) “Double Rainbow,” a notated composition for an acoustic ensemble of 10 instruments, ca. 36 minutes. (2) “Appalachiana”, a fixed-media composition for electro-acoustic music and video, ca. 30 minutes, and (3) “'The Invisible Mass': Exploring Compositional Technique in Alfred Schnittke’s Second Symphony”, an analytical article.

(1) Double Rainbow is a ca. 36 minute composition in four movements scored for 10 instruments: flute, Bb clarinet (doubling on bass clarinet), tenor saxophone (doubling on alto saxophone), french horn, percussion (glockenspiel, vibraphone, wood block, 3 toms, snare drum, bass drum, suspended cymbal), piano, violin, viola, cello, and double bass. Each of the four movements of the piece explore their own distinct character and set of compositional goals. The piece is presented as a musical score and as a recording, which was extensively treated in post-production.

(2) Appalachiana, is a ca. 30 minute fixed-media composition for music and video. The musical component was created as a vehicle to showcase several approaches to electro-acoustic music composition –fft re-synthesis for time manipulation effects, the use of a custom-built software instrument which implements generative approaches to creating rhythm and pitch patterns, using a recording of rain to create rhythmic triggers for software instruments, and recording additional components with acoustic instruments. The video component transforms footage of natural landscapes filmed at several locations in North Carolina, Virginia, and West Virginia into a surreal narrative using a variety of color, lighting, distortion, and time-manipulation video effects.

(3) “‘The Invisible Mass:’ Exploring Compositional Technique in Alfred Schnittke’s Second Symphony” is an analytical article that focuses on Alfred Schnittke’s compositional technique as evidenced in the construction of his Second Symphony and discussed by the composer in a number of previously untranslated articles and interviews. Though this symphony is pivotal in the composer’s oeuvre, there are currently no scholarly articles that offer in-depth analyses of the piece. The article combines analyses of the harmony, form, and orchestration in the Second Symphony with relevant quotations from the composer, some from published and translated sources and others newly translated by the author from research at the Russian State Library in St. Petersburg. These offer a perspective on how Schnittke’s compositional technique combines systematic geometric design with keen musical intuition.

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Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-07

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Les changements climatiques récents ont mené à l’expansion de la répartition de plusieurs espèces méridionales, mais ont aussi causé l’extinction locale d’espèces se retrouvant à la limite de leur tolérance environnementale. Ces populations en expansion peuvent favoriser différentes stratégies d’histoire de vie en répondant à différents facteurs limitants. Dans cette thèse, je vise à déterminer et quantifier l’effet du climat et des évènements extrêmes sur le cycle de vie complet d’une espèce en expansion (le dindon sauvage) pour comprendre les changements au niveau populationnel ainsi que les mécanismes impliqués dans l’expansion de la distribution d’une espèce. J’ai défini les évènements extrêmes de pluie, d’épaisseur de neige au sol et de température, comme un évènement dont la fréquence est plus rare que le 10e et 90e percentile. En utilisant l’approche « Measure-Understand-Predict » (MUP), j’ai tout d’abord suivi trois populations le long d’un gradient latitudinal de sévérité hivernale pour mesurer l’effet de variables météorologiques sur la dynamique des populations. La survie des dindons sauvages diminuait drastiquement lorsque l’accumulation de neige au sol dépassait 30 cm pour une période de 10 jours et diminuait également avec la température. Au printemps, la persistance de la neige affectait négativement le taux d’initiation de la nidification et l’augmentation de la pluie diminuait la survie des nids. Dans une deuxième étape, j’ai examiné l’impact des évènements climatiques extrêmes et des processus démographiques impliqués dans l’expansion du dindon, liés à la théorie des histoires de vie pour comprendre la relation entre la dynamique de ces populations en expansions avec le climat. J’ai démontré que la fréquence des évènements extrêmes hivernaux et, d’une façon moins importante, les évènements extrêmes estivaux limitaient l’expansion nordique des dindons sauvages. J’ai appuyé, à l’aide de données empiriques et de modélisation, les hypothèses de la théorie classique des invasions biologiques en montrant que les populations en établissement priorisaient les paramètres reproducteurs tandis que la survie adulte était le paramètre démographique affectant le plus la dynamique des populations bien établies. De plus, les populations les plus au nord étaient composées d’individus plus jeunes ayant une espérance de vie plus faible, mais avaient un potentiel d’accroissement plus élevé que les populations établies, comme le suggère cette théorie. Finalement, j’ai projeté l’impact de la récolte sur la dynamique des populations de même que le taux de croissance de cette espèce en utilisant les conditions climatiques futures projetées par les modèles de l’IPCC. Les populations en établissement avaient un taux de récolte potentiel plus élevé, mais la proportion de mâles adultes, possédant des caractéristiques recherchées par les chasseurs, diminuait plus rapidement que dans les populations établies. Dans le futur, la fréquence des évènements extrêmes de pluie devrait augmenter tandis que la fréquence des évènements extrêmes de température hivernale et d’accumulation de neige au sol devraient diminuer après 2060, limitant probablement l’expansion nordique du dindon sauvage jusqu’en 2100. Cette thèse améliore notre compréhension des effets météorologiques et du climat sur l’expansion de la répartition des espèces ainsi que les mécanismes démographiques impliqués, et nous a permis de prédire la probabilité de l’expansion nordique de la répartition du dindon sauvage en réponse aux changements climatiques.

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La carbonatation minérale dans les résidus miniers est un moyen sûr et permanent de séquestrer le CO2 atmosphérique. C’est un processus naturel et passif qui ne nécessite aucun traitement particulier et donc avantageux d’un point de vue économique. Bien que la quantité de CO2 qu’il soit possible de séquestrer selon ce processus est faible à l’échelle globale, dans le cadre d’un marché du carbone, les entreprises minières pourraient obtenir des crédits et ainsi revaloriser leurs résidus. À l’heure actuelle, il y a peu d’informations pour quantifier le potentiel de séquestration du CO2 de façon naturelle et passive dans les piles de résidus miniers. Il est donc nécessaire d’étudier le phénomène pour comprendre comment évolue la réaction à travers le temps et estimer la quantité de CO2 qui peut être séquestrée naturellement dans les piles de résidus. Plusieurs travaux de recherche se sont intéressés aux résidus miniers de Thetford Mines (Québec, Canada), avec une approche principalement expérimentale en laboratoire. Ces travaux ont permis d’améliorer la compréhension du processus de carbonatation, mais ils nécessitent une validation à plus grande échelle sous des conditions atmosphériques réelles. L’objectif général de cette étude est de quantifier le processus de carbonatation minérale des résidus miniers sous des conditions naturelles, afin d’estimer la quantité de CO2 pouvant être piégée par ce processus. La méthodologie utilisée repose sur la construction de deux parcelles expérimentales de résidus miniers situées dans l’enceinte de la mine Black Lake (Thetford Mines). Les résidus miniers sont principalement constitués de grains et de fibres de chrysotile et lizardite mal triés, avec de petites quantités d’antigorite, de brucite et de magnétite. Des observations spatiales et temporelles ont été effectuées dans les parcelles concernant la composition et la pression des gaz, la température des résidus, la teneur en eau volumique, la composition minérale des résidus ainsi que la chimie de l’eau des précipitations et des lixiviats provenant des parcelles. Ces travaux ont permis d’observer un appauvrissement notable du CO2 dans les gaz des parcelles (< 50 ppm) ainsi que la précipitation d’hydromagnésite dans les résidus, ce qui suggère que la carbonatation minérale naturelle et passive est un processus potentiellement important dans les résidus miniers. Après 4 ans d’observations, le taux de séquestration du CO2 dans les parcelles expérimentales a été estimé entre 3,5 et 4 kg/m3/an. Ces observations ont permis de développer un modèle conceptuel de la carbonatation minérale naturelle et passive dans les parcelles expérimentales. Dans ce modèle conceptuel, le CO2 atmosphérique (~ 400 ppm) se dissout dans l’eau hygroscopique contenue dans les parcelles, où l’altération des silicates de magnésium forme des carbonates de magnésium. La saturation en eau dans les cellules est relativement stable dans le temps et varie entre 0,4 et 0,65, ce qui est plus élevé que les valeurs de saturation optimales proposées dans la littérature, réduisant ainsi le transport de CO2 dans la zone non saturée. Les concentrations de CO2 en phase gazeuse, ainsi que des mesures de la vitesse d’écoulement du gaz dans les cellules suggèrent que la réaction est plus active près de la surface et que la diffusion du CO2 est le mécanisme de transport dominant dans les résidus. Un modèle numérique a été utilisé pour simuler ces processus couplés et valider le modèle conceptuel avec les observations de terrain. Le modèle de transport réactif multiphase et multicomposant MIN3P a été utilisé pour réaliser des simulations en 1D qui comprennent l’infiltration d’eau à travers le milieu partiellement saturé, la diffusion du gaz, et le transport de masse réactif par advection et dispersion. Même si les écoulements et le contenu du lixivat simulés sont assez proches des observations de terrain, le taux de séquestration simulé est 22 fois plus faible que celui mesuré. Dans les simulations, les carbonates précipitent principalement dans la partie supérieure de la parcelle, près de la surface, alors qu’ils ont été observés dans toute la parcelle. Cette différence importante pourrait être expliquée par un apport insuffisant de CO2 dans la parcelle, qui serait le facteur limitant la carbonatation. En effet, l’advection des gaz n’a pas été considérée dans les simulations et seule la diffusion moléculaire a été simulée. En effet, la mobilité des gaz engendrée par les fluctuations de pression barométrique et l’infiltration de l’eau, ainsi que l’effet du vent doivent jouer un rôle conséquent pour alimenter les parcelles en CO2.

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The West African Monsoon (WAM) and its representation in numerical models are strongly influenced by the Saharan Heat Low (SHL), a low-pressure system driven by radiative heating over the central Sahara and ventilated by the cold and moist inflow from adjacent oceans. It has recently been shown that a significant part of the southerly moisture flux into the SHL originates from convective cold pools over the Sahel. These density currents driven by evaporation of rain are largely absent in models with parameterized convection. This crucial issue has been hypothesized to contribute to the inability of many climate models to reproduce the variability of the WAM. Here, the role of convective cold pools approaching the SHL from the Atlas Mountains, which are a strong orographic trigger for deep convection in Northwest Africa, is analyzed. Knowledge about the frequency of these events, as well as their impact on large-scale dynamics, is required to understand their contribution to the variability of the SHL and to known model uncertainties. The first aspect is addressed through the development of an objective and automated method for the generation of multi-year climatologies not available before. The algorithm combines freely available standard surface observations with satellite microwave data. Representativeness of stations and influence of their spatial density are addressed by comparison to a satellite-only climatology. Applying this algorithm to data from automated weather stations and manned synoptic stations in and south of the Atlas Mountains reveals the frequent occurrence. On the order of 6 events per month are detected from May to September when the SHL is in its northernmost position. The events tend to cluster into several-days long convectively active periods, often with strong events on consecutive days. This study is the first to diagnose dynamical impacts of such periods on the SHL, based on simulations of two example cases using the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model at convection-permitting resolution. Sensitivity experiments with artificially removed cold pools as well as different resolutions and parameterizations are conducted. Results indicate increases in surface pressure of more than 1 hPa and significant moisture transports into the desert over several days. This moisture affects radiative heating and thus the energy balance of the SHL. Even though cold pool events north of the SHL are less frequent when compared to their Sahelian counterparts, it is shown that they gain importance due to their temporal clustering on synoptic timescale. Together with studies focusing on the Sahel, this work emphasizes the need for improved parameterization schemes for deep convection in order to produce more reliable climate projections for the WAM.