Metrics for Predicting User Behavior and Experience in an Interactive Storytelling System

In much of the previous research into the field of interactive storytelling, the focus has been on the creation of complete systems, then evaluating the performance of those systems based on user experience. Less focus has been placed on finding general solutions to problems that manifest in many different types of interactive storytelling systems. The goal of this thesis was to identify potential candidates for metrics that a system could use to predict player behavior or how players experience the story they are presented with, and to put these metrics to an empirical test. The three metrics that were used were morality, relationships and conflict. The game used for user testing of the metrics, Regicide is an interactive storytelling experience that was created in conjunction with Eero Itkonen. Data, in the forms of internal system data and survey answers, collected through user testing, was used to evaluate hypotheses for each metric. Out of the three chosen metrics, morality performed the best in this study. Though further research and refinement may be required, the results were promising, and point to the conclusion that user responses to questions of morality are a strong predictor for their choices in similar situations later on in the course of an interactive story. A similar examination for user relationships with other characters in the story did not produce promising results, but several problems were recognized in terms of methodology and further research with a better optimized system may yield different results. On the subject of conflict, several aspects, proposed by Ware et al. (2012), were evaluated separately. Results were inconclusive, with the aspect of directness showing the most promise.

Predicting performance on fluid intelligence from speed of processing, working memory, and controlled attention

Fluid inteliigence has been defined as an innate ability to reason which is measured commonly by the Raven's Progressive Matrices (RPM). Individual differences in fluid intelligence are currently explained by the Cascade model (Fry & Hale, 1996) and the Controlled Attention hypothesis (Engle, Kane, & Tuholski, 1999; Kane & Engle, 2002). The first theory is based on a complex relation among age, speed, and working memory which is described as a Cascade. The alternative to this theory, the Controlled Attention hypothesis, is based on the proposition that it is the executive attention component of working memory that explains performance on fluid intelligence tests. The first goal of this study was to examine whether the Cascade model is consistent within the visuo-spatial and verbal-numerical modalities. The second goal was to examine whether the executive attention component ofworking memory accounts for the relation between working memory and fluid intelligence. Two hundred and six undergraduate students between the ages of 18 and 28 completed a battery of cognitive tests selected to measure processing speed, working memory, and controlled attention which were selected from two cognitive modalities, verbalnumerical and visuo-spatial. These were used to predict performance on two standard measures of fluid intelligence: the Raven's Progressive Matrices (RPM) and the Shipley Institute of Living Scales (SILS) subtests. Multiple regression and Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) were used to test the Cascade model and to determine the independent and joint effects of controlled attention and working memory on general fluid intelligence. Among the processing speed measures only spatial scan was related to the RPM. No other significant relations were observed between processing speed and fluid intelligence. As 1 a construct, working memory was related to the fluid intelligence tests. Consistent with the predictions for the RPM there was support for the Cascade model within the visuo-spatial modality but not within the verbal-numerical modality. There was no support for the Cascade model with respect to the SILS tests. SEM revealed that there was a direct path between controlled attention and RPM and between working memory and RPM. However, a significant path between set switching and RPM explained the relation between controlled attention and RPM. The prediction that controlled attention mediated the relation between working memory and RPM was therefore not supported. The findings support the view that the Cascade model may not adequately explain individual differences in fluid intelligence and this may be due to the differential relations observed between working memory and fluid intelligence across different modalities. The findings also show that working memory is not a domain-general construct and as a result its relation with fluid intelligence may be dependent on the nature of the working memory modality.

"Re-huminization": the role of human-animal similarity in predicting prejudice towards immigrants and non-human animals

Research implies that there ~ay be an association between attitudes toward margil1alized human outgroups and non-human animals. Very few studies, however, have specifically tested this relation empirically. The general purpose of the present research was to determine if such a relation exists and if perceptions of human-animal similarity avail as a common predictor of both types of attitudes. Ideological orientations associated with prejudiced attitudes (Social Dominance Orientation, Right-Wing Authoritarianism, and Universal Orientation) were also examined as individual differences in predicting perceptions of human-animal similarity. As predicted, people who endorsed prejudiced attitudes toward human outgroups (Study 1) and immigrants in particular (Studies 2 and 3), were more likely to endorse prejudiced attitudes toward non-human animals. In Study 2, perceptions that humans are superior (versus similar) to other animals directly predicted higher levels of prejudice toward non-human animals, whereas the effect of human superiority beliefs on immigrant prejudice was mediated by dehumanization. In other words, greater perceptions of humans as superior (versus similar) to other animals "allowed for" greater dehumanization of immigrants, which in turn resulted in heightened immigrant prejudice. Furthermore, people higher in Social Dominance Orientation or Right-Wing Authoritarianism were particularly likely to perceive humans as superior (versus similar) to other animals, whereas people characterized by a greater Universal Orientation were more likely to perceive humans and non-human animals as similar. Study 3 examined whether inducing perceptions of human-animal similarity through experimental manipulation would lead to more favourable attitudes toward non-human animals and immigrants. Participants were randomly assigned to read one of four 11 editorials designed to highlight either the similarities or differences between humans and other animals (i.e., animals are similar to humans; humans are similar to animals;~~nimals are inferior to humans; humans are superior to animals) or to a neutral control condition. Encouragingly, when animals were described as similar to humans, prejudice towards non-human animals and immigrants was significantly lower, and to some extent this finding was also true for people naturally high in prejudice (i.e., high in Social Dominance Orientation or Right-Wing Authoritarianism). Inducing perceptions that nonhuman animals are similar to humans was particularly effective at reducing the tendency to dehumanize immigrants ("re-humanization"), lowering feelings of personal threat regarding one's animal-nature, and at increasing inclusive intergroup representations and empathy, all of which uniquely accounted for the significant decreases in prejudiced attitudes. Implications for research, theory and prejudice interventions are considered.

Comparison of non-HDL cholesterol and waist circumference vs. triglyceride levels and waist circumference in predicting coronary heart disease risk

BACKGROUND: Dyslipidemia is recognized as a major cause of coronary heart disease (CHD). Emerged evidence suggests that the combination of triglycerides (TG) and waist circumference can be used to predict the risk of CHD. However, considering the known limitations of TG, non-high-density lipoprotein (non-HDL = Total cholesterol - HDL cholesterol) cholesterol and waist circumference model may be a better predictor of CHD. PURPOSE: The Framingham Offspring Study data were used to determine if combined non-HDL cholesterol and waist circumference is equivalent to or better than TG and waist circumference (hypertriglyceridemic waist phenotype) in predicting risk of CHD. METHODS: A total of3,196 individuals from Framingham Offspring Study, aged ~ 40 years old, who fasted overnight for ~ 9 hours, and had no missing information on nonHDL cholesterol, TG levels, and waist circumference measurements, were included in the analysis. Receiver Operator Characteristic Curve (ROC) Area Under the Curve (AUC) was used to compare the predictive ability of non-HDL cholesterol and waist circumference and TG and waist circumference. Cox proportional-hazards models were used to examine the association between the joint distributions of non-HDL cholesterol, waist circumference, and non-fatal CHD; TG, waist circumference, and non-fatal CHD; and the joint distribution of non-HDL cholesterol and TG by waist circumference strata, after adjusting for age, gender, smoking, alcohol consumption, diabetes, and hypertension status. RESULTS: The ROC AUC associated with non-HDL cholesterol and waist circumference and TG and waist circumference are 0.6428 (CI: 0.6183, 0.6673) and 0.6299 (CI: 0.6049, 0.6548) respectively. The difference in the ROC AVC is 1.29%. The p-value testing if the difference in the ROC AVCs between the two models is zero is 0.10. There was a strong positive association between non-HDL cholesterol and the risk for non-fatal CHD within each TO levels than that for TO levels within each level of nonHDL cholesterol, especially in individuals with high waist circumference status. CONCLUSION: The results suggest that the model including non-HDL cholesterol and waist circumference may be superior at predicting CHD compared to the model including TO and waist circumference.

Predicting Physical, Verbal, Social, Racial, and Sexual Bullying with Individual and Environmental Factors from an Evolutionary Ecological Framework

Evidence exists for subtypes of bullying, but there is a lack of studies simultaneously investigating the factors that influence each subtype. The purpose of my thesis was to investigate how individual and environmental factors independently and interactively predict physical, verbal, social, racial, and sexual bullying using an evolutionary ecological framework. Adolescents (N = 225, M = 14.05, SD = 1.54) completed self-reports on demographics, HEXACO personality, Rothbart’s temperament, parenting, friendship quality, school connectedness, and socio-economic status. Subtypes were predicted by low Honesty-Humility in addition to other personality and demographic factors with the exception of physical bullying, which was predicted by environmental factors. Results suggest adolescents adaptively and selectively use bullying to exploit victims and obtain resources, although the subtype used may depend on individual factors bullies possess within Bronfenbrenner’s microsystem, instead of the meso- and exo- systems. Anti-bullying efforts should target these factors and reinforce alternative strategies to obtain resources.

Predicting the Pose of β-Casomorphin-5 and 7 in the Opioid Receptors

The opioid receptors consist of three main subtypes; μ, δ, and κ. Previous binding studies have shown that fragments of the milk protein, β-casein, known as β-casomorphins are agonists of these receptors which are selective for the μ receptor subtype. Using the crystal structures of these three receptors, computational molecular docking studies were done using the software GOLD to determine the conformation of β-casomorphin-5 and 7 when they bind to these three opioid receptors. GOLD was able to discriminate among the three receptors when docking the rigid ligands co-crystalized with the receptors. However, GOLD could not discriminate among the three receptors for either of the highly flexible β-casomorphins. A per amino acid scoring method was developed to overcome this problem. This method was used to predict the conformation of both β-casomorphin-5 and 7 in the μ receptor and determine that the two amino acid residues, Lys303 and Trp318 of the μ receptor are responsible for discriminating among the three receptor subtypes for binding of the β-casomorphin-5 and 7.

Predicting the Risk of Lung Cancer in Never-smokers

Despite being considered a disease of smokers, approximately 10-15% of lung cancer cases occur in never-smokers. Lung cancer risk prediction models have demonstrated excellent ability to discriminate cases from non-cases, and have been shown to be more efficient at selecting individuals for future screening than current criteria. Existing models have primarily been developed in populations of smokers, thus there was a need to develop an accurate model in never-smokers. This study focused on developing and validating a model using never-smokers from the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial. Cox regression analysis, with six-year follow-up, was used for model building. Predictors included: age, body mass index, education level, personal history of cancer, family history of lung cancer, previous chest X-ray, and secondhand smoke exposure. This model achieved fair discrimination (optimism corrected c-statistic = 0.6645) and good calibration. This represents an improvement on existing neversmoker models, but is not suitable for individual-level risk prediction.

Predicting trainees' intentions to transfer training : an application of the theory of planned behaviour

Mémoire numérisé par la Division de la gestion de documents et des archives de l'Université de Montréal

Predicting post-training reactions from pre-training attitudes

Les programmes de formation et d’apprentissage sont devenus des éléments parmi les plus essentiels pour les compagnies et la question se pose de savoir ce qui influence l’efficacité d’une formation. Récemment, la motivation pour la formation a été considérée comme le facteur déterminant. Ainsi, les objectifs de cette étude étaient d’examiner si la motivation pour la formation corrèle bien avec les antécédents et les réactions des employés formés, ainsi que d’analyser si la motivation joue un rôle de médiateur dans la prédiction des résultats d’une formation. Trois variables de « pré-formation » ont été choisies pour cette étude : l’attitude générale envers la formation, le sentiment d’efficacité personnelle en formation, et la planification de carrière. Les réactions immédiates des employés formés ont été choisies comme variable de « post-formation ». Un total de 152 employés d’une large compagnie québécoise a participé à cette étude en remplissant un questionnaire en début de formation et un autre à la fin. Les résultats de cette étude ont mis en évidence que la motivation pour la formation peut être prédite par l’attitude générale envers la formation, le sentiment d’efficacité personnelle en formation et la planification de carrière. De plus, la motivation pour la formation s’est révélée être le meilleur facteur de prédiction des réactions des employés formés. Les résultats ont également montré que la motivation pour la formation agit pleinement comme médiateur dans la relation entre le sentiment d’efficacité personnelle et la réaction des employés formés, et comme médiateur partiel entre l’attitude générale envers la formation et les réactions. Pour finir, cette étude a permis de découvrir que les employés nouvellement arrivés diffèrent des employés permanents dans leurs attitudes pré-formation et leurs réactions post-formation. Les résultats de cette étude sont discutés, des implications théoriques sont commentées et des implications pratiques pour les compagnies sont suggérées.

The Role of Obsessive Beliefs and Inferential Confusion in Predicting Treatment Outcomes for Different Subtypes of Obsessive-Compulsive Disorder

Essai doctoral d’intégration Présenté en vue de l’obtention du doctorat (D.Psy.)

Collective behavior of laser-produced plasma from a multicomponent YBa2Cu3O7 target in air

The dynamics of diffusion of electrons and ions from the laser-produced plasma from a multielement superconducting material, namely YBa2Cu3O7, using a Q-switched Nd:YAG laser is investigated by time-resolved emission-spectroscopic techniques at various laser irradiances. It is observed that beyond a laser irradiance of 2.6 \xC3\x97 1011 W cm-2, the ejected plume collectively drifts away from the target with a sharp increase in velocity to 1.25 \xC3\x97 106 cm s-1, which is twice its velocity observed at lower laser irradiances. This sudden drift apparently occurs as a result of the formation of a charged double layer at the external plume boundary. This diffusion is collective, that is, the electrons and ions inside the plume diffuse together simultaneously and hence it is similar to the ambipolar diffusion of charged particles in a discharge plasma

Predicting random level and seasonality of hotel prices. A structural equation growth curve approach

This article examines the effect on price of different characteristics of holiday hotels in the sun-and-beach segment, under the hedonic function perspective. Monthly prices of the majority of hotels in the Spanish continental Mediterranean coast are gathered from May to October 1999 from the tour operator catalogues. Hedonic functions are specified as random-effect models and parametrized as structural equation models with two latent variables, a random peak season price and a random width of seasonal fluctuations. Characteristics of the hotel and the region where they are located are used as predictors of both latent variables. Besides hotel category, region, distance to the beach, availability of parking place and room equipment have an effect on peak price and also on seasonality. 3- star hotels have the highest seasonality and hotels located in the southern regions the lowest, which could be explained by a warmer climate in autumn

Predicting adolescent perpetration in cyberbullying : An aplication of the theory of planned behavior

Resumen tomado de la publicaci??n

Predicting overall service quality: a structural equation modelling approach

In this article, the results of a modified SERVQUAL questionnaire (Parasuraman et al., 1991) are reported. The modifications consisted in substituting questionnaire items particularly suited to a specific service (banking) and context (county of Girona, Spain) for the original rather general and abstract items. These modifications led to more interpretable factors which accounted for a higher percentage of item variance. The data were submitted to various structural equation models which made it possible to conclude that the questionnaire contains items with a high measurement quality with respect to five identified dimensions of service quality which differ from those specified by Parasuraman et al. And are specific to the banking service. The two dimensions relating to the behaviour of employees have the greatest predictive power on overall quality and satisfaction ratings, which enables managers to use a low-cost reduced version of the questionnaire to monitor quality on a regular basis. It was also found that satisfaction and overall quality were perfectly correlated thus showing that customers do not perceive these concepts as being distinct