Poisson, Poisson-gamma and zero-inflated regression models of motor vehicle crashes: balancing statistical fit and theory

There has been considerable research conducted over the last 20 years focused on predicting motor vehicle crashes on transportation facilities. The range of statistical models commonly applied includes binomial, Poisson, Poisson-gamma (or negative binomial), zero-inflated Poisson and negative binomial models (ZIP and ZINB), and multinomial probability models. Given the range of possible modeling approaches and the host of assumptions with each modeling approach, making an intelligent choice for modeling motor vehicle crash data is difficult. There is little discussion in the literature comparing different statistical modeling approaches, identifying which statistical models are most appropriate for modeling crash data, and providing a strong justification from basic crash principles. In the recent literature, it has been suggested that the motor vehicle crash process can successfully be modeled by assuming a dual-state data-generating process, which implies that entities (e.g., intersections, road segments, pedestrian crossings, etc.) exist in one of two states—perfectly safe and unsafe. As a result, the ZIP and ZINB are two models that have been applied to account for the preponderance of “excess” zeros frequently observed in crash count data. The objective of this study is to provide defensible guidance on how to appropriate model crash data. We first examine the motor vehicle crash process using theoretical principles and a basic understanding of the crash process. It is shown that the fundamental crash process follows a Bernoulli trial with unequal probability of independent events, also known as Poisson trials. We examine the evolution of statistical models as they apply to the motor vehicle crash process, and indicate how well they statistically approximate the crash process. We also present the theory behind dual-state process count models, and note why they have become popular for modeling crash data. A simulation experiment is then conducted to demonstrate how crash data give rise to “excess” zeros frequently observed in crash data. It is shown that the Poisson and other mixed probabilistic structures are approximations assumed for modeling the motor vehicle crash process. Furthermore, it is demonstrated that under certain (fairly common) circumstances excess zeros are observed—and that these circumstances arise from low exposure and/or inappropriate selection of time/space scales and not an underlying dual state process. In conclusion, carefully selecting the time/space scales for analysis, including an improved set of explanatory variables and/or unobserved heterogeneity effects in count regression models, or applying small-area statistical methods (observations with low exposure) represent the most defensible modeling approaches for datasets with a preponderance of zeros

Differences in the performance of safety performance functions estimated for total crash count and for crash count by crash type

In recent years the development and use of crash prediction models for roadway safety analyses have received substantial attention. These models, also known as safety performance functions (SPFs), relate the expected crash frequency of roadway elements (intersections, road segments, on-ramps) to traffic volumes and other geometric and operational characteristics. A commonly practiced approach for applying intersection SPFs is to assume that crash types occur in fixed proportions (e.g., rear-end crashes make up 20% of crashes, angle crashes 35%, and so forth) and then apply these fixed proportions to crash totals to estimate crash frequencies by type. As demonstrated in this paper, such a practice makes questionable assumptions and results in considerable error in estimating crash proportions. Through the use of rudimentary SPFs based solely on the annual average daily traffic (AADT) of major and minor roads, the homogeneity-in-proportions assumption is shown not to hold across AADT, because crash proportions vary as a function of both major and minor road AADT. For example, with minor road AADT of 400 vehicles per day, the proportion of intersecting-direction crashes decreases from about 50% with 2,000 major road AADT to about 15% with 82,000 AADT. Same-direction crashes increase from about 15% to 55% for the same comparison. The homogeneity-in-proportions assumption should be abandoned, and crash type models should be used to predict crash frequency by crash type. SPFs that use additional geometric variables would only exacerbate the problem quantified here. Comparison of models for different crash types using additional geometric variables remains the subject of future research.

Further notes on the application of zero-inflated models in highway safety

The intent of this note is to succinctly articulate additional points that were not provided in the original paper (Lord et al., 2005) and to help clarify a collective reluctance to adopt zero-inflated (ZI) models for modeling highway safety data. A dialogue on this important issue, just one of many important safety modeling issues, is healthy discourse on the path towards improved safety modeling. This note first provides a summary of prior findings and conclusions of the original paper. It then presents two critical and relevant issues: the maximizing statistical fit fallacy and logic problems with the ZI model in highway safety modeling. Finally, we provide brief conclusions.

A new method to quantify the application thickness of sunscreen on skin

Proper application of sunscreen is essential as an effective public health strategy for skin cancer prevention. Insufficient application is common among sunbathers, results in decreased sun protection and may therefore lead to increased UV damage of the skin. However, no objective measure of sunscreen application thickness (SAT) is currently available for field-based use. We present a method to detect SAT on human skin for determining the amount of sunscreen applied and thus enabling comparisons to manufacturer recommendations. Using a skin swabbing method and subsequent spectrophotometric analysis, we were able to determine SAT on human skin. A swabbing method was used to derive SAT on skin (in mg sunscreen per cm2 of skin area) through the concentration–absorption relationship of sunscreen determined in laboratory experiments. Analysis differentiated SATs between 0.25 and 4 mg cm−2 and showed a small but significant decrease in concentration over time postapplication. A field study was performed, in which the heterogeneity of sunscreen application could be investigated. The proposed method is a low cost, noninvasive method for the determination of SAT on skin and it can be used as a valid tool in field- and population-based studies.

V2V/V2I augmented maps : state-of-the-art and contribution to real-time crash risk assessment

A number of advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) are currently being released on the market, providing safety functions to the drivers such as collision avoidance, adaptive cruise control or enhanced night-vision. These systems however are inherently limited by their sensory range: they cannot gather information from outside this range, also called their “perceptive horizon”. Cooperative systems are a developing research avenue that aims at providing extended safety and comfort functionalities by introducing vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) and vehicle-to-infrastructure (V2I) wireless communications to the road actors. This paper presents the problematic of cooperative systems, their advantages and contributions to road safety and exposes some limitations related to market penetration, sensors accuracy and communications scalability. It explains the issues of how to implement extended perception, a central contribution of cooperative systems. The initial steps of an evaluation of data fusion architectures for extended perception are exposed.

Customers behaving badly : a state of the art review, research agenda and implications for practitioners

The purpose of this paper is to highlight important issues in the study of dysfunctional customer behavior and to provide a research agenda to inspire, guide, and enthuse. Through a critical evaluation of existing research, the aim is to highlight key issues and to present potentially worthy avenues for future study.

Randomised controlled trial of an automated, interactive telephone intervention to improve type 2 diabetes self-management (Telephone-Linked Care Diabetes Project) : study protocol

Background: An estimated 285 million people worldwide have diabetes and its prevalence is predicted to increase to 439 million by 2030. For the year 2010, it is estimated that 3.96 million excess deaths in the age group 20-79 years are attributable to diabetes around the world. Self-management is recognised as an integral part of diabetes care. This paper describes the protocol of a randomised controlled trial of an automated interactive telephone system aiming to improve the uptake and maintenance of essential diabetes self-management behaviours. ---------- Methods/Design: A total of 340 individuals with type 2 diabetes will be randomised, either to the routine care arm, or to the intervention arm in which participants receive the Telephone-Linked Care (TLC) Diabetes program in addition to their routine care. The intervention requires the participants to telephone the TLC Diabetes phone system weekly for 6 months. They receive the study handbook and a glucose meter linked to a data uploading device. The TLC system consists of a computer with software designed to provide monitoring, tailored feedback and education on key aspects of diabetes self-management, based on answers voiced or entered during the current or previous conversations. Data collection is conducted at baseline (Time 1), 6-month follow-up (Time 2), and 12-month follow-up (Time 3). The primary outcomes are glycaemic control (HbA1c) and quality of life (Short Form-36 Health Survey version 2). Secondary outcomes include anthropometric measures, blood pressure, blood lipid profile, psychosocial measures as well as measures of diet, physical activity, blood glucose monitoring, foot care and medication taking. Information on utilisation of healthcare services including hospital admissions, medication use and costs is collected. An economic evaluation is also planned.---------- Discussion: Outcomes will provide evidence concerning the efficacy of a telephone-linked care intervention for self-management of diabetes. Furthermore, the study will provide insight into the potential for more widespread uptake of automated telehealth interventions, globally.

Randomised controlled trial of an automated, interactive telephone intervention (TLC Diabetes) to improve type 2 diabetes management : Baseline findings and six-month outcomes

Background: Effective self-management of diabetes is essential for the reduction of diabetes-related complications, as global rates of diabetes escalate. Methods: Randomised controlled trial. Adults with type 2 diabetes (n = 120), with HbA1c greater than or equal to 7.5 %, were randomly allocated (4 × 4 block randomised block design) to receive an automated, interactive telephone-delivered management intervention or usual routine care. Baseline sociodemographic, behavioural and medical history data were collected by self-administered questionnaires and biological data were obtained during hospital appointments. Health-related quality of life (HRQL) was measured using the SF-36. Results: The mean age of participants was 57.4 (SD 8.3), 63 % of whom were male. There were no differences in demographic, socioeconomic and behavioural variables between the study arms at baseline. Over the six-month period from baseline, participants receiving the Australian TLC (Telephone-Linked Care) Diabetes program showed a 0.8 % decrease in geometric mean HbA1c from 8.7 % to 7.9 %, compared with a 0.2 % HbA1c reduction (8.9 % to 8.7 %) in the usual care arm (p = 0.002). There was also a significant improvement in mental HRQL, with a mean increase of 1.9 in the intervention arm, while the usual care arm decreased by 0.8 (p = 0.007). No significant improvements in physical HRQL were observed. Conclusions: These analyses indicate the efficacy of the Australian TLC Diabetes program with clinically significant post-intervention improvements in both glycaemic control and mental HRQL. These observed improvements, if supported and maintained by an ongoing program such as this, could significantly reduce diabetes-related complications in the longer term. Given the accessibility and feasibility of this kind of program, it has strong potential for providing effective, ongoing support to many individuals with diabetes in the future.

Vestibular rehabilitation following the removal of an acoustic neuroma : a systematic review of randomized trials

An acoustic neuroma (also known as a vestibular schwannoma) is an intracranial tumour of the vestibular nerve that is commonly treated by surgical resection. Following resection of an acoustic neuroma, patients may experience a range of symptoms that include deficits in gaze stability, mobility and balance. Vestibular rehabilitation may be useful in reducing the severity and minimizing the impact of these symptoms.

Simulation architecture for the design of cooperative collision warning systems

Simulation has been widely used to estimate the benefits of Cooperative Systems (CS) based on Inter-Vehicular Communications (IVC). This paper presents a new architecture built with the SiVIC simulator and the RTMaps™ multisensors prototyping platform. We introduce several improvements from a previous similar architecture, regarding IVC modelisation and vehicles’ control. It has been tuned with on-road measurements to improve fidelity. We discuss the results of a freeway emergency braking scenario (EEBL) implemented to validate our architecture’s capabilities.

Zeta-potential and morphology of electrospun nano- and microfibers from biopolymers and their blends used as scaffolds in tissue engineering

Electrostatic spinning or electrospinning is a fiber spinning technique driven by a high-voltage electric field that produces fibers with diameters in a submicrometer to nanometer range.1 Nanofibers are typical one-dimensional colloidal objects with an increased tensile strength, whose length can achieve a few kilometers and the specific surface area can be 100 m2 g–1 or higher.2 Nano- and microfibers from biocompatible polymers and biopolymers have received much attention in medical applications3 including biomedical structural elements (scaffolding used in tissue engineering,2,4–6 wound dressing,7 artificial organs and vascular grafts8), drug and vaccine delivery,9–11 protective shields in speciality fabrics, multifunctional membranes, etc. Other applications concern superhydrophobic coatings,12 encapsulation of solid materials,13 filter media for submicron particles in separation industry, composite reinforcement and structures for nano-electronic machines.

Randomized phase II trial of the efficacy and safety of trastuzumab combined with docetaxel in patients with human epidermal growth factor receptor 2-positive metastatic breast cancer administered as first-line treatment : the M77001 study group

Purpose: This randomized, multicenter trial compared first-line trastuzumab plus docetaxel versus docetaxel alone in patients with human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2)-positive metastatic breast cancer (MBC). Patients and Methods: Patients were randomly assigned to six cycles of docetaxel 100 mg/m 2 every 3 weeks, with or without trastuzumab 4 mg/kg loading dose followed by 2 mg/kg weekly until disease progression. Results: A total of 186 patients received at least one dose of the study drug. Trastuzumab plus docetaxel was significantly superior to docetaxel alone in terms of overall response rate (61% v 34%; P = .0002), overall survival (median, 31.2 v 22.7 months; P = .0325), time to disease progression (median, 11.7 v 6.1 months; P = .0001), time to treatment failure (median, 9.8 v 5.3 months; P = .0001), and duration of response (median, 11.7 v 5.7 months; P = .009). There was little difference in the number and severity of adverse events between the arms. Grade 3 to 4 neutropenia was seen more commonly with the combination (32%) than with docetaxel alone (22%), and there was a slightly higher incidence of febrile neutropenia in the combination arm (23% v 17%). One patient in the combination arm experienced symptomatic heart failure (1%). Another patient experienced symptomatic heart failure 5 months after discontinuation of trastuzumab because of disease progression, while being treated with an investigational anthracycline for 4 months. Conclusion: Trastuzumab combined with docetaxel is superior to docetaxel alone as first-line treatment of patients with HER2-positive MBC in terms of overall survival, response rate, response duration, time to progression, and time to treatment failure, with little additional toxicity. © 2005 by American Society of Clinical Oncology.

Just what the doctor ordered? Investigating the impact of health service quality on consumer misbehaviour

The growth in demand and expenditure currently being experienced in the Australian health sector is also accompanied by a rise in dysfunctional customer behaviour, such as verbal abuse and physical violence, perpetrated against health service providers. While service failure and poor recovery are known to trigger consumer misbehaviour, this study investigates whether lower than expected perceived service quality generates cognitive and emotional appraisals that trigger two common forms of misbehaviour: refusal to participate and verbal abuse. Data were collected using a 2 × 2 between-subjects experiment administered via online written survey and analysed using path modelling. The findings indicate that perceptions of service encounter quality have an indirect effect on whether consumers refuse to participate in the service and/or verbally abuse the service provider through the mediating effect of anger.