Performance and prediction: Bayesian modelling of fallible choice in chess

Evaluating agents in decision-making applications requires assessing their skill and predicting their behaviour. Both are well developed in Poker-like situations, but less so in more complex game and model domains. This paper addresses both tasks by using Bayesian inference in a benchmark space of reference agents. The concepts are explained and demonstrated using the game of chess but the model applies generically to any domain with quantifiable options and fallible choice. Demonstration applications address questions frequently asked by the chess community regarding the stability of the rating scale, the comparison of players of different eras and/or leagues, and controversial incidents possibly involving fraud. The last include alleged under-performance, fabrication of tournament results, and clandestine use of computer advice during competition. Beyond the model world of games, the aim is to improve fallible human performance in complex, high-value tasks.

Population performance of collembolans feeding on soil fungi from different ecological niches

The potential reproductive value of arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (Gloinus intraradices and Glomus invermaium), root pathogenic fungi (Rhizoctonia solani and Fusarium culmorum) and saprotrophic fungi (Penicillium hordei and Trichoderma harzianum) were examined for the collembolans Folsomia candida Willem and Folsomia fimetaria L. Dried baker's yeast (Saccharomyces cerevisiae) was used as a reference standard food in laboratory cultures. Collembolan performance was determined as final size, fecundity and population growth rate after when fed the fungal food sources for 31 days. The mycorrhizal fungi gave the least growth and fecundity compared with the other fungi, but G. intraradices gave good fecundity for F. candida. In terms of growth, Baker's yeast was a high-quality food for both adults and juveniles of both species, but it was a poorer food in terms of fecundity of F. candida. Preference of the fungi in all possible pairwise combinations showed that although F. fimetaria did not perform well on Glomus spp. and F. candida did not grow well on Glomus spp. their preference for these fungi did not reflect this. The highest fecundity was seen with the root pathogen F. culmorum. Different quality indicators such as the C:N ratio of the fungal food sources as well as other biological parameters are discussed in relation to their reproductive value and Collembola preferential feeding. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

DNA cleavage and antitumour activity of platinum(II) and copper(II) compounds derived from 4-methyl-2-N-(2-pyridylmethyl)aminophenol: spectroscopic, electrochemical and biological investigation

The reaction of the redox-active ligand, Hpyramol (4-methyl-2-N-(2-pyridylmethyl)aminophenol) with K2PtCl4 yields monofunctional square-planar [Pt(pyrimol)Cl], PtL-Cl, which was structurally characterised by single-crystal X-ray diffraction and NMR spectroscopy. This compound unexpectedly cleaves supercoiled double-stranded DNA stoichiometrically and oxidatively, in a non-specific manner without any external reductant added, under physiological conditions. Spectro-electrochemical investigations of PtL-Cl were carried out in comparison with the analogue CuL-Cl as a reference compound. The results support a phenolate oxidation, generating a phenoxyl radical responsible for the ligand-based DNA cleavage property of the title compounds. Time-dependent in vitro cytotoxicity assays were performed with both PtL-Cl and CuL-Cl in various cancer cell lines. The compound CuL-Cl overcomes cisplatin-resistance in ovarian carcinoma and mouse leukaemia cell lines, with additional activity in some other cells. The platinum analogue, PtL-Cl also inhibits cell-proliferation selectively. Additionally, cellular-uptake studies performed for both compounds in ovarian carcinoma cell lines showed that significant amounts of Pt and Cu were accumulated in the A2780 and A2780R cancer cells. The conformational and structural changes induced by PtL-Cl and CuL-Cl on calf thymus DNA and phi X174 supercoiled phage DNA at ambient conditions were followed by electrophoretic mobility assay and circular dichroism spectroscopy. The compounds induce extensive DNA degradation and unwinding, along with formation of a monoadduct at the DNA minor groove. Thus, hybrid effects of metal-centre variation, multiple DNA-binding modes and ligand-based redox activity towards cancer cell-growth inhibition have been demonstrated. Finally, reactions of PtL-Cl with DNA model bases (9-Ethylguanine and 5'-GMP) followed by NMR and MS showed slow binding at Guanine-N7 and for the double stranded self complimentary oligonucleotide d(GTCGAC)(2) in the minor groove.

Glutathione and related thiol compounds II: the importance of protein bound glutathione and related protein-bound compounds in gluten proteins

Protein-bound glutathione (PSSG) and protein-bound related thiol compounds, i.e. cysteine (PSSCys), glutamyl-cysteine (PSSGlu-Cys) and cysteinyl-glycine (PSSCys-Gly), were analysed in proteins of Osborne fractions, i.e. gliadin, glutenin and gliadin-, glutenin-subfractions separated by gel filtration chromatography, gel protein and the total gluten proteins separated from wheat varieties with varying breadmaking performances. The results showed that PSSG and some protein-bound related thiol compounds were found in monomeric gliadins, indicating that glutathione and some related thiol compounds are able to form disulphide bonds (SS) with sulphydryl group (SH) of those proteins and the formation of those disulphide bonds may prevent those monomeric proteins from binding to other proteins. It was also observed that a larger amount of PSSG in glutenin proteins was negatively correlated with the molecular weight (M-w) distribution of glutenin polymers, suggesting that PSSG and protein-bound related thiol compounds may play an important role in controlling polymerisation of glutenin. Furthermore, it was found that the level of PSSG in gel protein from flours with poor breadmaking performances was constantly higher and significantly different (p < 0.05) from that of flours with good breadmaking performance. The same trend was observed with gluten samples from breadmaking and biscuitmaking flours. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Glutathione and related thiol compounds. I. Glutathione and related thiol compounds in flour

The high pressure liquid chromatography method for determination of glutathione in free and protein-bound forms was re-established and has successfully been developed to measure glutathione related thiol compounds, i.e. L-cysteine, gamma-L-glutamyl-L-cysteine and L-cysteinyl-L-glycine, in both free and protein-bound forms. The natural levels of those compounds in typical strong, weak flours, and flours from 36 wheat varieties grown in the UK were investigated. The total free and protein-bound glutathione compounds found in the 36 UK varieties was 358 +/- 51 and 190 +/- 17 nmol/g, respectively. Multiple correlation analysis did not show a clear-cut relationship between the natural level of glutathione and any related thiol compound in either free or protein-bound forms and flour quality attributes, including rheological properties, baking performance, protein content and SDS sedimentation test values. Therefore, it can be suggested that glutathione and related thiol compounds at natural levels do not lead to significant differences in the rheological properties of dough and the baking performance of flour. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Disparity with respect to a local reference plane as a dominant cue for stereoscopic depth relief

Earlier studies showed that the disparity with respect to other visible points could not explain stereoacuity performance, nor could various spatial derivatives of disparity [Glennerster, A., McKee, S. P., & Birch, M. D. (2002). Evidence of surface-based processing of binocular disparity. Current Biology, 12:825-828; Petrov, Y., & Glennerster, A. (2004). The role of the local reference in stereoscopic detection of depth relief. Vision Research, 44:367-376.] Two possible cues remain: (i) local changes in disparity gradient or (ii) disparity with respect to an interpolated line drawn through the reference points. Here, we aimed to distinguish between these two cues. Subjects judged.. in a two AFC paradigm, whether a target dot was in front of a plane defined by three reference dots or, in other experiments, in front of a line defined by two reference dots. We tested different slants of the reference line or plane and different locations of the target relative to the reference points. For slanted reference lines or plane, stereoacuity changed little as the target position was varied. For judgments relative to a frontoparallel reference line, stereoacuity did vary with target position, but less than would be predicted by disparity gradient change. This provides evidence that disparity with respect to the reference plane is an important cue. We discuss the potential advantages of this measure in generating a representation of surface relief that is invariant to viewpoint transformations. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Perceptual grouping and distance estimates in typical and atypical development: comparing performance across perception, drawing and construction tasks

Perceptual grouping is a pre-attentive process which serves to group local elements into global wholes, based on shared properties. One effect of perceptual grouping is to distort the ability to estimate the distance between two elements. In this study, biases in distance estimates, caused by four types of perceptual grouping, were measured across three tasks, a perception, a drawing and a construction task in both typical development (TD: Experiment 1) and in individuals with Williams syndrome (WS: Experiment 2). In Experiment 1, perceptual grouping distorted distance estimates across all three tasks. Interestingly, the effect of grouping by luminance was in the opposite direction to the effects of the remaining grouping types. We relate this to differences in the ability to inhibit perceptual grouping effects on distance estimates. Additive distorting influences were also observed in the drawing and the construction task, which are explained in terms of the points of reference employed in each task. Experiment 2 demonstrated that the above distortion effects are also observed in WS. Given the known deficit in the ability to use perceptual grouping in WS, this suggests a dissociation between the pre-attentive influence of and the attentive deployment of perceptual grouping in WS. The typical distortion in relation to drawing and construction points towards the presence of some typical location coding strategies in WS. The performance of the WS group differed from the TD participants on two counts. First, the pattern of overall distance estimates (averaged across interior and exterior distances) across the four perceptual grouping types, differed between groups. Second, the distorting influence of perceptual grouping was strongest for grouping by shape similarity in WS, which contrasts to a strength in grouping by proximity observed in the TD participants. (c) 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Pronominal and anaphoric reference in agrammatism

Subjects with Broca's aphasia have been shown to display difficulties in on-line and off-line tasks involving personal pronouns and reflexives. Off-line tasks have indicated more errors with pronouns than with reflexives while the reverse has been found in on-line studies. In the present off-line study, the comprehension of sentences containing personal pronouns and reflexives is examined in a group of 10 agrammatic participants. Results indicate that subjects had difficulties with both pronouns and reflexives, particularly with reflexives in sentences that contained a quantificational antecedent, as well as with pronouns in exceptional case marking constructions. It is argued that the low performance that subjects exhibited as a group in pronouns and reflexives indicates two distinct impairments, one that concerns coreference and one that concerns A-dependencies, the latter being a manifestation of a general processing failure to link positions. Poor performance on exceptional case marking constructions compared to simple transitive sentences is claimed to be interpreted within theories for reference assignment that distinguish between the two sentence types. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Building integration photovoltaic module with reference to Ghana: using triple junction amorphous silicon

This paper assesses the potential for using building integrated photovoltaic (BIPV) roof shingles made from triple-junction amorphous silicon (3a-Si) for electrification and as a roofing material in tropical countries, such as Accra, Ghana. A model roof was constructed using triple-junction amorphous (3a-Si) PV on one section and conventional roofing tiles on the other. The performance of the PV module and tiles were measured, over a range of ambient temperatures and solar irradiance. PVSyst (a computer design software) was used to determine the most appropriate angle of tilt. It was observed that 3a-Si performs well in conditions such as Accra, because it is insensitive to high temperatures. Building integration gives security benefits, and reduces construction costs and embodied energy, compared to freestanding PV systems. Again, it serves as a means of protection from salt spray from the oceans and works well even when shaded. However, compared to conventional roofing materials, 3a-Si would increase the indoor temperature by 1-2 °C depending on the surface area of the roof covered with the PV modules. The results presented in this research enhance the understanding of varying factors involved in the selection of an appropriate method of PV installation to offset the short falls of the conventional roofing material in Ghana.

High-performance infrared filters for the HIRDLS 21-channel focal plane detector array

The High Resolution Dynamics Limb Sounder is described, with particular reference to the atmospheric measurements to be made and the rationale behind the measurement strategy. The demands this strategy places on the filters to be used in the instrument and the designs to which this leads to are described. A second set of filters at an intermediate image plane to reduce "Ghost Imaging" is discussed together with their required spectral properties. A method of combining the spectral characteristics of the primary and secondary filters in each channel are combined together with the spectral response of the detectors and other optical elements to obtain the system spectral response weighted appropriately for the Planck function and atmospheric limb absorption. This method is used to demonstrate whether the out-of-band spectral blocking requirement for a channel is being met and an example calculation is demonstrated showing how the blocking is built up for a representative channel. Finally, the techniques used to produce filters of the necessary sub-millimetre sizes together with the testing methods and procedures used to assess the environmental durability and establish space flight quality are discussed.

Novel material combinations for enhanced infrared filter performance

The introduction of non-toxic fluride compounds as direct replacements for Thorium Fluoride (ThF4) has renewed interest in the use of low index fluoride compounds in high performance infrared filters. This paper reports the results of an investigation into the effects of combining these low index materials, particularly Barium Fluoride (BaF2), with the high index material Lead Telluride (PbTe) in bandpass and edge filters. Infrared filter designs using conventional and the new material ombination are compared, and infrared filters using these material combinations have been manufactured and have been shown to suffer problems with residual stress. A possible solution to this problem utilising Zinc Sulphide (ZnS) layers with compensating compressive stress is discussed.

Delays versus performance of visually guided systems

The paper presents an overview of dynamic systems with inherent delays in both feedforward and feedback paths and how the performance of such systems can be affected by such delays. The authors concentrate on visually guided systems, where the behaviour of the system is largely dependent on the results of the vision sensors, with particular reference to active robot heads (real-time gaze control). We show how the performance of such systems can deteriorate substantially with the presence of unknown and/or variable delays. Considered choice of system architecture, however, allows the performance of active vision systems to be optimised with respect to the delays present in the system.

Real estate mutual funds: herding, momentum-trading and performance

This study jointly examines herding, momentum trading and performance in real estate mutual funds (REMFs). We do this using trading and performance data for 159 REMFs across the period 1998–2008. In support of the view that Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) stocks are relatively more transparent, we find that stock herding by REMFs is lower in REIT stocks than other stock. Herding behavior in our data reveals a tendency for managers to sell winners, reflective of the “disposition effect.” We find low overall levels of REMF momentum trading, but further evidence of the disposition effect when momentum trading is segregated into buy–sell dimensions. We test the robustness of our analysis using style analysis, and by reference to the level of fund dividend distribution. Our results for this are consistent with our conjecture about the role of transparency in herding, but they provide no new insights in relation to the momentum-trading dimensions of our analysis. Summarizing what are complex interrelationships, we find that neither herding nor momentum trading are demonstrably superior investment strategies for REMFs.

Nutrimetabonomics: applications for nutritional sciences, with specific reference to gut microbial interactions

Understanding the role of the diet in determining human health and disease is one major objective of modern nutrition. Mammalian biocomplexity necessitates the incorporation of systems biology technologies into contemporary nutritional research. Metabonomics is a powerful approach that simultaneously measures the low-molecular-weight compounds in a biological sample, enabling the metabolic status of a biological system to be characterized. Such biochemical profiles contain latent information relating to inherent parameters, such as the genotype, and environmental factors, including the diet and gut microbiota. Nutritional metabonomics, or nutrimetabonomics, is being increasingly applied to study molecular interactions between the diet and the global metabolic system. This review discusses three primary areas in which nutrimetabonomics has enjoyed successful application in nutritional research: the illumination of molecular relationships between nutrition and biochemical processes; elucidation of biomarker signatures of food components for use in dietary surveillance; and the study of complex trans-genomic interactions between the mammalian host and its resident gut microbiome. Finally, this review illustrates the potential for nutrimetabonomics in nutritional science as an indispensable tool to achieve personalized nutrition.

A baseline study of vicine–convicine levels in faba bean (Vicia faba L.) germplasm

Vicine and convicine are anti-nutritional compounds that accumulate in the cotyledons of faba beans. When humans consume beans with high levels of these compounds, it can cause a condition called favism in individuals harbouring a deficiency in the activity of their glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase. When faba beans are used in animal feeds, there can be effects on performance. These concerns have resulted in increasing interest within plant breeding in developing low vicine and convicine faba bean germplasm. In order to facilitate this objective, we developed a rapid and robust screening method for vicine and convicine, capable of distinguishing between faba beans that are either high (wild type) or low in vicine and convicine. In the absence of reliable commercial reference materials, we report an adaptation of a previously published method where a biochemical assay and spectral data were used to confirm the identity of our analytes, vicine and convicine. This method could be readily adopted in other facilities and open the way to the efficient exploitation of diverse germplasm in regions where faba beans play a significant role in human nutrition. We screened a collection of germplasm of interest to a collaborative plant breeding programme developing between the National Institute for Agricultural Botany in the UK and L'Institut Nationale d'Agronomie de Tunisie in Tunisia. We report the results obtained and discuss the prospects for developing molecular markers for the low vicine and convicine trait.