Time-series forecasting of pollutant concentration levels using particle swarm optimization and artificial neural networks

This study evaluates the application of an intelligent hybrid system for time-series forecasting of atmospheric pollutant concentration levels. The proposed method consists of an artificial neural network combined with a particle swarm optimization algorithm. The method not only searches relevant time lags for the correct characterization of the time series, but also determines the best neural network architecture. An experimental analysis is performed using four real time series and the results are shown in terms of six performance measures. The experimental results demonstrate that the proposed methodology achieves a fair prediction of the presented pollutant time series by using compact networks.

Optimization of chromatographic conditions and comparison of extraction efficiencies of four different methods for determination and quantification of pesticide content in bovine milk by UFLC-MS/MS

This paper describes the optimization of a multiresidue chromatographic analysis for the identification and quantification of 20 pesticides in bovine milk, including three carbamates, a carbamate oxime, six organophosphates, two strobilurins, a pyrethroid, an oxazolidinedione, an aryloxyphenoxypropionate acid/ester, a neonicotinoid, a dicarboximide, and three triazoles. The influences of different chromatographic columns and gradients were evaluated. Furthermore, four different extraction methods were evaluated; each utilized both different solvents, including ethyl acetate, methanol, and acetonitrile, and different workup steps. The best results were obtained by a modified QuEChERS method that lacked a workup step, and that included freezing the sample for 2 hours at -20 ºC. The results were satisfactory, yielding coefficients of variation of less than 20%, with the exception of the 50 µg L-1 sample of famoxadone, and recoveries between 70 and 120%, with the exception of acephate and bifenthrin; however, both analytes exhibited coefficients of variation of less than 20%.

Optimization of wind blade design including its energetic characteristics

The goal of the Master’s thesis is to develop and to analyze the optimization method for finding a geometry shape of classical horizontal wind turbine blades based on set of criteria. The thesis develops a technique that allows the designer to determine the weight of such factors as power coefficient, sound pressure level and the cost function in the overall process of blade shape optimization. The optimization technique applies the Desirability function. It was never used before in that kind of technical problems, and in this sense it can claim to originality of research. To do the analysis and the optimization processes more convenient the software application was developed.

Comparative analysis of the trypanocidal activity and chemical properties of E-lychnophoric acid and its derivatives using theoretical calculations

E-Lychnophoric acid 1, its derivative ester 2 and alcohol 3 killed 100% of trypomastigote blood forms of Trypanosoma cruzi at the concentrations of 13.86, 5.68, and 6.48 µg/mL, respectively. Conformational distribution calculations (AM1) of 1, 2 and 3 gave minimum energies for the conformers a, b, c, and d, which differ from each other only in the cyclononene ring geometry. Calculations (DFT/BLYP/6-31G*) of geometry optimization and chemical properties were performed for conformers of 1, 2, and 3. The theoretical results were numerically compared to the trypanocidal activity. Calculated values of atomic charge, orbital population, and vibrational frequencies showed that the C-4-C-5 pi-endocyclic bond does not affect the trypanocidal activity of the studied compounds. Nevertheless, the structure of the group at C-4 strongly influences the activity. However, the theoretical results indicated that the intra-ring (C-1 and C-9) and pi-exocycle (C-8 and C-14) carbons of caryophyllene-type structures promote the trypanocidal activity of these compounds.

Analysis of the relationship intensity, duration, frequency of disaggregated daily rainfall in southern Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil

The intensity, duration, and frequency relationship (IDF) of rainfall occurrence may be done through continuous records of pluviographs or daily pluviometer values . The objective of this study was to estimate the intensity-duration-frequency relationships of precipitation, using the method of daily rainfall disaggregation, at weather stations located to the southern half of the state of Rio Grande do Sul; comparing them with those obtained by rain gauge records, in places considered homogeneous from the meteorological point of view. The IDF equation parameters were estimated from daily rainfall disaggregation data, using the method of nonlinear optimization. To validate the equations confidence indices and efficiency and the "t" Student test, among maximum intensity values obtained from the disaggregated daily rainfall durations of 10; 30; 60 min and 6; 12 and 24 h and those extracted from existing IDF equations. For all studied stations and return periods, the trust index values were regarded as "optimal", i.e., greater than 0.85. The maximal intensity of rainfall obtained by daily rainfall disaggregation have similarity with those obtained by relations IDF standards. Thus, the method constitutes a feasible alternative in obtaining the IDF relationships.

Optimization as a method of search engine marketing

This study is dedicated to search engine marketing (SEM). It aims for developing a business model of SEM firms and to provide explicit research of trustworthy practices of virtual marketing companies. Optimization is a general term that represents a variety of techniques and methods of the web pages promotion. The research addresses optimization as a business activity, and it explains its role for the online marketing. Additionally, it highlights issues of unethical techniques utilization by marketers which created relatively negative attitude to them on the Internet environment. Literature insight combines in the one place both technical and economical scientific findings in order to highlight technological and business attributes incorporated in SEM activities. Empirical data regarding search marketers was collected via e-mail questionnaires. 4 representatives of SEM companies were engaged in this study to accomplish the business model design. Additionally, the fifth respondent was a representative of the search engine portal, who provided insight on relations between search engines and marketers. Obtained information of the respondents was processed qualitatively. Movement of commercial organizations to the online market increases demand on promotional programs. SEM is the largest part of online marketing, and it is a prerogative of search engines portals. However, skilled users, or marketers, are able to implement long-term marketing programs by utilizing web page optimization techniques, key word consultancy or content optimization to increase web site visibility to search engines and, therefore, user’s attention to the customer pages. SEM firms are related to small knowledge-intensive businesses. On the basis of data analysis the business model was constructed. The SEM model includes generalized constructs, although they represent a wider amount of operational aspects. Constructing blocks of the model includes fundamental parts of SEM commercial activity: value creation, customer, infrastructure and financial segments. Also, approaches were provided on company’s differentiation and competitive advantages evaluation. It is assumed that search marketers should apply further attempts to differentiate own business out of the large number of similar service providing companies. Findings indicate that SEM companies are interested in the increasing their trustworthiness and the reputation building. Future of the search marketing is directly depending on search engines development.

Qualitative Characteristics and Quantitative Measures of Solution's Reliability in Discrete Optimization: Traditional Analytical Approaches, Innovative Computational Methods and Applicability

The purpose of this thesis is twofold. The first and major part is devoted to sensitivity analysis of various discrete optimization problems while the second part addresses methods applied for calculating measures of solution stability and solving multicriteria discrete optimization problems. Despite numerous approaches to stability analysis of discrete optimization problems two major directions can be single out: quantitative and qualitative. Qualitative sensitivity analysis is conducted for multicriteria discrete optimization problems with minisum, minimax and minimin partial criteria. The main results obtained here are necessary and sufficient conditions for different stability types of optimal solutions (or a set of optimal solutions) of the considered problems. Within the framework of quantitative direction various measures of solution stability are investigated. A formula for a quantitative characteristic called stability radius is obtained for the generalized equilibrium situation invariant to changes of game parameters in the case of the H¨older metric. Quality of the problem solution can also be described in terms of robustness analysis. In this work the concepts of accuracy and robustness tolerances are presented for a strategic game with a finite number of players where initial coefficients (costs) of linear payoff functions are subject to perturbations. Investigation of stability radius also aims to devise methods for its calculation. A new metaheuristic approach is derived for calculation of stability radius of an optimal solution to the shortest path problem. The main advantage of the developed method is that it can be potentially applicable for calculating stability radii of NP-hard problems. The last chapter of the thesis focuses on deriving innovative methods based on interactive optimization approach for solving multicriteria combinatorial optimization problems. The key idea of the proposed approach is to utilize a parameterized achievement scalarizing function for solution calculation and to direct interactive procedure by changing weighting coefficients of this function. In order to illustrate the introduced ideas a decision making process is simulated for three objective median location problem. The concepts, models, and ideas collected and analyzed in this thesis create a good and relevant grounds for developing more complicated and integrated models of postoptimal analysis and solving the most computationally challenging problems related to it.

Accuracy Analysis of Frequency Converter Estimates in Diagnostic Applications

Transportation of fluids is one of the most common and energy intensive processes in the industrial and HVAC sectors. Pumping systems are frequently subject to engineering malpractice when dimensioned, which can lead to poor operational efficiency. Moreover, pump monitoring requires dedicated measuring equipment, which imply costly investments. Inefficient pump operation and improper maintenance can increase energy costs substantially and even lead to pump failure. A centrifugal pump is commonly driven by an induction motor. Driving the induction motor with a frequency converter can diminish energy consumption in pump drives and provide better control of a process. In addition, induction machine signals can also be estimated by modern frequency converters, dispensing with the use of sensors. If the estimates are accurate enough, a pump can be modelled and integrated into the frequency converter control scheme. This can open the possibility of joint motor and pump monitoring and diagnostics, thereby allowing the detection of reliability-reducing operating states that can lead to additional maintenance costs. The goal of this work is to study the accuracy of rotational speed, torque and shaft power estimates calculated by a frequency converter. Laboratory tests were performed in order to observe estimate behaviour in both steady-state and transient operation. An induction machine driven by a vector-controlled frequency converter, coupled with another induction machine acting as load was used in the tests. The estimated quantities were obtained through the frequency converter’s Trend Recorder software. A high-precision, HBM T12 torque-speed transducer was used to measure the actual values of the aforementioned variables. The effect of the flux optimization energy saving feature on the estimate quality was also studied. A processing function was developed in MATLAB for comparison of the obtained data. The obtained results confirm the suitability of this particular converter to provide accurate enough estimates for pumping applications.

Search and Paper SKU Analysis of Recipes Meeting EUPS Standard

The theoretical research of the study concentrated on finding theoretical frameworks to optimize the amount of needed stock keeping units (SKUs) in manufacturing industry. The goal was to find ways for a company to acquire an optimal collection of stock keeping units needed for manufacturing needed amount of end products. The research follows constructive research approach leaning towards practical problem solving. In the empirical part of this study, a recipe search tool was developed to an existing database used in the target company. The purpose of the tools was to find all the recipes meeting the EUPS performance standard and put the recipes in a ranking order using the data available in the database. The ranking of the recipes was formed from the combination of the performance measures and price of the recipes. In addition, the tool researched what kind of paper SKUs were needed to manufacture the best performing recipes. The tool developed during this process meets the requirements. It eases and makes it much faster to search for all the recipes meeting the EUPS standard. Furthermore, many future development possibilities for the tool were discovered while writing the thesis.

Methodology for wind turbine blade geometry optimization

Nowadays, the upwind three bladed horizontal axis wind turbine is the leading player on the market. It has been found to be the best industrial compromise in the range of different turbine constructions. The current wind industry innovation is conducted in the development of individual turbine components. The blade constitutes 20-25% of the overall turbine budget. Its optimal operation in particular local economic and wind conditions is worth investigating. The blade geometry, namely the chord, twist and airfoil type distributions along the span, responds to the output measures of the blade performance. Therefore, the optimal wind blade geometry can improve the overall turbine performance. The objectives of the dissertation are focused on the development of a methodology and specific tool for the investigation of possible existing wind blade geometry adjustments. The novelty of the methodology presented in the thesis is the multiobjective perspective on wind blade geometry optimization, particularly taking simultaneously into account the local wind conditions and the issue of aerodynamic noise emissions. The presented optimization objective approach has not been investigated previously for the implementation in wind blade design. The possibilities to use different theories for the analysis and search procedures are investigated and sufficient arguments derived for the usage of proposed theories. The tool is used for the test optimization of a particular wind turbine blade. The sensitivity analysis shows the dependence of the outputs on the provided inputs, as well as its relative and absolute divergences and instabilities. The pros and cons of the proposed technique are seen from the practical implementation, which is documented in the results, analysis and conclusion sections.

Optimization and validation of the solid-liquid extraction technique for determination of picloram in soils by high performance liquid chromatography

The objective of this study was to optimize and validate the solid-liquid extraction (ESL) technique for determination of picloram residues in soil samples. At the optimization stage, the optimal conditions for extraction of soil samples were determined using univariate analysis. Ratio soil/solution extraction, type and time of agitation, ionic strength and pH of extraction solution were evaluated. Based on the optimized parameters, the following method of extraction and analysis of picloram was developed: weigh 2.00 g of soil dried and sieved through a sieve mesh of 2.0 mm pore, add 20.0 mL of KCl concentration of 0.5 mol L-1, shake the bottle in the vortex for 10 seconds to form suspension and adjust to pH 7.00, with alkaline KOH 0.1 mol L-1. Homogenate the system in a shaker system for 60 minutes and then let it stand for 10 minutes. The bottles are centrifuged for 10 minutes at 3,500 rpm. After the settlement of the soil particles and cleaning of the supernatant extract, an aliquot is withdrawn and analyzed by high performance liquid chromatography. The optimized method was validated by determining the selectivity, linearity, detection and quantification limits, precision and accuracy. The ESL methodology was efficient for analysis of residues of the pesticides studied, with percentages of recovery above 90%. The limits of detection and quantification were 20.0 and 66.0 mg kg-1 soil for the PVA, and 40.0 and 132.0 mg kg-1 soil for the VLA. The coefficients of variation (CV) were equal to 2.32 and 2.69 for PVA and TH soils, respectively. The methodology resulted in low organic solvent consumption and cleaner extracts, as well as no purification steps for chromatographic analysis were required. The parameters evaluated in the validation process indicated that the ESL methodology is efficient for the extraction of picloram residues in soils, with low limits of detection and quantification.

Belt conveyor energy efficiency analysis and energy model development

An energy model of a belt conveyor was designed. Operation of a belt conveyor was researched. Operational indexes were calculated. Energy optimization process and recommendations were presented.

Analysis and modelling of chemical looping combustion process with and without oxygen uncoupling

Effective control and limiting of carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions in energy production are major challenges of science today. Current research activities include the development of new low-cost carbon capture technologies, and among the proposed concepts, chemical combustion (CLC) and chemical looping with oxygen uncoupling (CLOU) have attracted significant attention allowing intrinsic separation of pure CO₂ from a hydrocarbon fuel combustion process with a comparatively small energy penalty. Both CLC and CLOU utilize the well-established fluidized bed technology, but several technical challenges need to be overcome in order to commercialize the processes. Therefore, development of proper modelling and simulation tools is essential for the design, optimization, and scale-up of chemical looping-based combustion systems. The main objective of this work was to analyze the technological feasibility of CLC and CLOU processes at different scales using a computational modelling approach. A onedimensional fluidized bed model frame was constructed and applied for simulations of CLC and CLOU systems consisting of interconnected fluidized bed reactors. The model is based on the conservation of mass and energy, and semi-empirical correlations are used to describe the hydrodynamics, chemical reactions, and transfer of heat in the reactors. Another objective was to evaluate the viability of chemical looping-based energy production, and a flow sheet model representing a CLC-integrated steam power plant was developed. The 1D model frame was succesfully validated based on the operation of a 150 kWth laboratory-sized CLC unit fed by methane. By following certain scale-up criteria, a conceptual design for a CLC reactor system at a pre-commercial scale of 100 MWth was created, after which the validated model was used to predict the performance of the system. As a result, further understanding of the parameters affecting the operation of a large-scale CLC process was acquired, which will be useful for the practical design work in the future. The integration of the reactor system and steam turbine cycle for power production was studied resulting in a suggested plant layout including a CLC boiler system, a simple heat recovery setup, and an integrated steam cycle with a three pressure level steam turbine. Possible operational regions of a CLOU reactor system fed by bituminous coal were determined via mass, energy, and exergy balance analysis. Finally, the 1D fluidized bed model was modified suitable for CLOU, and the performance of a hypothetical 500 MWth CLOU fuel reactor was evaluated by extensive case simulations.

Optimization and validation of a methodology to determine total arsenic, As(III) and As(V), in water samples, through graphite furnace atomic absorption spectrometry

The Graphite furnace atomic absorption spectrometry (GF AAS) was the technique chosen by the inorganic contamination laboratory (INCQ/ FIOCRUZ) to be validated and applied in routine analysis for arsenic detection and quantification. The selectivity, linearity, sensibility, detection, and quantification limits besides accuracy and precision parameters were studied and optimized under Stabilized Temperature Platform Furnace (STPF) conditions. The limit of detection obtained was 0.13 µg.L-1 and the limit of quantification was 1.04 µg.L-1, with an average precision, for total arsenic, less than 15% and an accuracy of 96%. To quantify the chemical species As(III) and As(V), an ion-exchange resin (Dowex 1X8, Cl- form) was used and the physical-chemical parameters were optimized resulting in a recuperation of 98% of As(III) and of 90% of As(V). The method was applied to groundwater, mineral water, and hemodialysis purified water samples. All results obtained were lower than the maximum limit values established by the legal Brazilian regulations, in effect, 50, 10, and 5 µg.L-1 para As total, As(III) e As(V), respectively. All results were statistically evaluated.

Optimization of the extraction of carrageenan from Kappaphycus alvarezii using response surface methodology

This study aims to optimize an alternative method of extraction of carrageenan without previous alkaline treatment and ethanol precipitation using Response Surface Methodology (RSM). In order to introduce an innovation in the isolation step, atomization drying was used reducing the time for obtaining dry carrageenan powder. The effects of extraction time and temperature on yield, gel strength, and viscosity were evaluated. Furthermore, the extracted material was submitted to structural analysis, by infrared spectroscopy and nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy (¹H-NMR), and chemical composition analysis. Results showed that the generated regression models adequately explained the data variation. Carrageenan yield and gel viscosity were influenced only by the extraction temperature. However, gel strength was influenced by both, extraction time and extraction temperature. Optimal extraction conditions were 74 ºC and 4 hours. In these conditions, the carrageenan extract properties determined by the polynomial model were 31.17%, 158.27 g.cm-2, and 29.5 cP for yield, gel strength, and viscosity, respectively, while under the experimental conditions they were 35.8 ± 4.68%, 112.50 ± 4.96 g.cm-2, and 16.01 ± 1.03 cP, respectively. The chemical composition, nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy, and infrared spectroscopy analyses showed that the crude carrageenan extracted is composed mainly of κ-carrageenan.