Local models for exploratory analysis of hydrological extremes

Trend analysis is widely used for detecting changes in hydrological data. Parametric methods for this employ pre-specified models and associated tests to assess significance, whereas non-parametric methods generally apply rank tests to the data. Neither approach is suitable for exploratory analysis, because parametric models impose a particular, perhaps unsuitable, form of trend, while testing may confirm that trend is present but does not describe its form. This paper describes semi-parametric approaches to trend analysis using local likelihood fitting of annual maximum and partial duration series and illustrates their application to the exploratory analysis of changes in extremes in sea level and river flow data. Bootstrap methods are used to quantify the variability of estimates.

In vitro release of bovine serum albumin from alginate/HPMC hydrogel beads

In recent years, the use of swelling polymeric matrices for the encapsulation and controlled release of protein drugs has received significant attention. The purpose of the present study was to investigate the release of albumin, a model protein from alginate/hydroxypropyl-methylcellulose (HPMC) gel beads. A hydrogel system comprised of two natural, hydrophilic polymers; sodium alginate and HPMC was studied as a carrier of bovine serum albumin (BSA) which was used as a model protein. The morphology, bead size and the swelling ratio were studied in different physical states; fully swollen, dried and reswollen using scanning electron microscopy and image analysis. Finally the effect of different alginate/HPMC ratios on the BSA release profile in physiological saline solution was investigated. Swelling experiments revealed that the bead diameter increases with the viscosity of the alginate solution while the addition of HPMC resulted in a significant increase of the swelling ratio. The BSA release patterns showed that the addition of HPMC increased the protein-release rate while the release mechanism fitted the Peppas model. Alginate/HPMC beads prepared using the ionic gelation exhibited high BSA loading efficiency for all formulations. The presence of HPMC increased the swelling ability of the alginate beads while the particle size remained unaffected. Incorporation of HPMC in the alginate gels also resulted in improved BSA release in physiological saline solution. All formulations presented a non-Fickian release mechanism described by the Peppas model. In addition, the implementation of non-parametric tests showed significant differences in the release patterns between the alginate/HPMC and the pure alginate beads, respectively.

Simple procedures to assess and compare the ecological niche of species

Hutchinson's (1957; Cold Spring Harbour Symp Quant Biol 22:415-427) niche concept is being used increasingly in the context of global change, and is currently applied to many ecological issues including climate change, exotic species invasion and management of endangered species. For both the marine and terrestrial realms, there is a growing need to assess the breadth of the niches of individual species and to make comparisons among them to forecast the species' capabilities to adapt to global change. In this paper, we describe simple non-parametric multivariate procedures derived from a method originally used in climatology to (1) evaluate the breadth of the ecological niche of a species and (2) examine whether the niches are significantly separated. We first applied the statistical procedures to a simple fictive example of 3 species separated by 2 environmental factors in order to describe the technique. We then used it to quantify and compare the ecological niche of 2 key-structural marine zooplankton copepod species, Calanus finmarchicus and C. helgolandicus, in the northern part of the North Atlantic Ocean using 3 environmental factors. The test demonstrates that the niches of both species are significantly separated and that the coldwater species has a niche larger than that of its warmer-water congeneric species.

Seasonal plankton dynamics along a cross-shelf gradient off northern Spain

The development of population models able to reproduce the dynamics of zooplankton is a central issue when trying to understand how a changing environment would affect zooplankton in the future. Using 10 years of monthly data on phytoplankton and zooplankton abundance in the Bay of Biscay from the IEO's RADIALES time-series programme, we built non-parametric Generalized Additive Models (GAMs) able to reproduce the dynamics of plankton on the basis of environmental factors (nutrients, temperature, upwelling and photoperiod). We found that the interaction between these two plankton components is approximately linear, whereas the effects of environmental factors are non-linear. With the inclusion of the environmental variability, the main seasonal and inter-annual dynamic patterns observed within the studied plankton assemblage indicate the prevalence of bottom-up regulatory control. The statistically deduced models were used to simulate the dynamics of the phytoplankton and zooplankton. A good agreement between observations and simulations was obtained, especially for zooplankton. We are presently developing spatio-temporal GAM models for the North Sea based on the Continuous Plankton Recorder database.

Fracture Mechanics Analysis of the Dentine-Luting Cement Interface.

The objectives of this study were to determine the fracture toughness of adhesive interfaces between dentine and clinically relevant, thin layers of dental luting cements. Cements tested included a conventional glass-ionomer, F (Fuji I), a resin-modified glass-ionomer, FP (Fuji Plus) and a compomer cement, D (DyractCem). Ten miniature short-bar chevron notch specimens were manufactured for each cement, each comprising a 40 µm thick chevron of lute, between two 1.5 mm thick blocks of bovine dentine, encased in resin composite. The interfacial KIC results (MN/m3/2) were median (range): F; 0.152 (0.14-0.16), FP; 0.306 (0.27-0.37), D; 0.351 (0.31-0.37). Non-parametric statistical analysis showed that the fracture toughness of F was significantly lower (p

Significant correlation in linkage signals from genome-wide scans of schizophrenia and schizotypy

Prior family and adoption studies have suggested a genetic relationship between schizophrenia and schizotypy. However, this has never been verified using linkage methods. We therefore attempted to test for a correlation in linkage signals from genome-wide scans of schizophrenia and schizotypy. The Irish study of high-density schizophrenia families comprises 270 families with at least two members with schizophrenia or poor-outcome schizoaffective disorder (n = 637). Non-psychotic relatives were assessed using the structured interview for schizotypy (n = 746). A 10-cM multipoint, non-parametric, autosomal genomewide scan of schizophrenia was performed in Merlin. A scan of a quantitative trait comprising ratings of DSM-III-R criteria for schizotypal personality disorder in non-psychotic relatives was also performed. Schizotypy logarithm of the odds (LOD) scores were regressed onto schizophrenia LOD scores at all loci, with adjustment for spatial autocorrelation. To assess empirical significance, this was also carried out using 1000 null scans of schizotypy. The number of jointly linked loci in the real data was compared to distribution of jointly linked loci in the null scans. No markers were suggestively linked to schizotypy based on strict Lander Kruglyak criteria. Schizotypy LODs predicted schizophrenia LODs above chance expectation genome wide (empirical P = 0.04). Two and four loci yielded nonparametric LOD (NPLs) > 1.0 and > 0.75, respectively, for both schizophrenia and schizotypy (genome-wide empirical P = 0.04 and 0.02, respectively). These results suggest that at least a subset of schizophrenia susceptibility genes also affects schizotypy in non-psychotic relatives. Power may therefore be increased in molecular genetic studies of schizophrenia if they incorporate measures of schizotypy in non-psychotic relatives.

An efficient particle filter for color-based tracking in complex scenes

In this paper, we introduce an efficient method for particle selection in tracking objects in complex scenes. Firstly, we improve the proposal distribution function of the tracking algorithm, including current observation, reducing the cost of evaluating particles with a very low likelihood. In addition, we use a partitioned sampling approach to decompose the dynamic state in several stages. It enables to deal with high-dimensional states without an excessive computational cost. To represent the color distribution, the appearance of the tracked object is modelled by sampled pixels. Based on this representation, the probability of any observation is estimated using non-parametric techniques in color space. As a result, we obtain a Probability color Density Image (PDI) where each pixel points its membership to the target color model. In this way, the evaluation of all particles is accelerated by computing the likelihood p(z|x) using the Integral Image of the PDI.

Lateralisation of language function in young adults born very preterm

Objective: To explore, using functional magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), the functional organisation of phonological processing in young adults born very preterm.

Subjects: Six right handed male subjects with radiological evidence of thinning of the corpus callosum were selected from a cohort of very preterm subjects. Six normal right handed male volunteers acted as controls.

Method: Blood oxygenation level dependent contrast echoplanar images were acquired over five minutes at 1.5 T while subjects performed the tasks. During the ON condition, subjects were visually presented with pairs of non-words and asked to press a key when a pair of words rhymed (phonological processing). This task alternated with the OFF condition, which required subjects to make letter case judgments of visually presented pairs of consonant letter strings (orthographic processing). Generic brain activation maps were constructed from individual images by sinusoidal regression and non-parametric testing. Between group differences in the mean power of experimental response were identified on a voxel wise basis by analysis of variance.

Results: Compared with controls, the subjects with thinning of the corpus callosum showed significantly reduced power of response in the left hemisphere, including the peristriate cortex and the cerebellum, as well as in the right parietal association area. Significantly increased power of response was observed in the right precentral gyrus and the right supplementary motor area.

Conclusions: The data show evidence of increased frontal and decreased occipital activation in male subjects with neurodevelopmental thinning of the corpus callosum, which may be due to the operation of developmental compensatory mechanisms.

A new method for estimating liquidity risk: Insights from a liquidity-adjusted CAPM framework

This paper proposes a new non-parametric method for estimating model-free, time-varying liquidity betas which builds on realized covariance and volatility theory. Working under a liquidity-adjusted CAPM framework we provide evidence that liquidity risk is a factor priced in the Greek stock market, mainly arising from the covariation of individual liquidity with local market liquidity, however, the level of liquidity seems to be an irrelevant variable in asset pricing. Our findings provide support to the notion that liquidity shocks transmitted across securities can cause market-wide effects and can have important implications for portfolio diversification strategies. ©2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Nonparametric Estimation of Data Dimensionality Prior to Data Compression: the case of the Human Development Index

In many applications in applied statistics researchers reduce the complexity of a data set by combining a group of variables into a single measure using factor analysis or an index number. We argue that such compression loses information if the data actually has high dimensionality. We advocate the use of a non-parametric estimator, commonly used in physics (the Takens estimator), to estimate the correlation dimension of the data prior to compression. The advantage of this approach over traditional linear data compression approaches is that the data does not have to be linearized. Applying our ideas to the United Nations Human Development Index we find that the four variables that are used in its construction have dimension three and the index loses information.

A potential vulnerability locus for schizophrenia on chromosome 6p24-22:evidence for genetic heterogeneity

In 265 Irish pedigrees, with linkage analysis we find evidence for a vulnerability locus for schizophrenia in region 6p24-22. The greatest lod score, assuming locus heterogeneity, is 3.51 (P = 0.0002) with D6S296. Another test, the C test, also supported linkage, the strongest results being obtained with D6S296 (P = 0.00001), D6S274 (P = 0.004) and D6S285 (P = 0.006). Non-parametric analysis yielded suggestive, but substantially weaker, findings. This locus appears to influence the vulnerability to schizophrenia in roughly 15 to 30% of our pedigrees. Evidence for linkage was maximal using an intermediate phenotypic definition and declined when this definition was narrowed or was broadened to include other psychiatric disorders.

A study to evaluate the introduction of simulation as a teaching strategy for the mental health and learning disability fields of nursing, in an undergraduate nursing curriculum within one higher education institution

High Fidelity Simulation or Human Patient Simulation is an educational strategy embedded within nursing curricula throughout many healthcare educational institutions. This paper reports on an evaluative study that investigated the views of a group of Year 2 undergraduate nursing students from the mental health and the learning disability fields of nursing (n = 75) in relation to simulation as a teaching pedagogy. The study took place in the simulation suite within a School of Nursing and Midwifery in the UK. Two patient scenarios were used for the session and participants completed a 22-item questionnaire consisting of three biographical information questions and a 19-item Likert scale. Descriptive statistics were employed to illustrate the data and non-parametric testing (Mann-Whitney U test) was employed to test a number of hypotheses. Overall students were positive about the introduction of patient scenarios using the human patient simulator into the undergraduate nursing curriculum. This study used a small, convenience sample in one institution and therefore the results obtained cannot be generalised to nursing education before further research can be conducted with larger samples and a mixed-method research approach. However these results provide encouraging evidence to support the use of simulation within the mental health and the learning disability fields of nursing, and the development and implementation of further simulations to complement the students’ practicum.

Alcohol, Tobacco and Pharmacy Students: Usage and Views on Professional Issues

Introduction/background: This study aimed to ascertain pharmacy students’ use and views on cigarettes and alcohol (including in relation to provision of health promotion advice) and to establish if alcohol intake affected academic performance. Within the United Kingdom (UK), there has been limited research conducted in this area
Methods: Following ethical approval, pharmacy students (n=581) were invited to participate in a pre-piloted electronic questionnaire, consisting of 21 questions on smoking and alcohol. Descriptive statistics and non-parametric tests were used for data analyses.
Results: A response rate of 64.5% (375/581) was obtained (69.9% female, 30.2% male). Many respondents (77.9%) reported that they drank alcohol; whereas only 3.7% stated they currently smoked cigarettes. Students who drank alcohol were more likely to fail elements of the program than those who did not. Less than half (47.8%) were in agreement that it was hypocritical for a pharmacist to give health promotion advice and then get drunk outside of work.
Discussion/conclusions: Students seem to consider that lifestyle recommendations are less relevant for themselves and also that a pharmacist’s responsibility centers on providing advice, rather than being a role-model. Alcohol consumption appears to negatively influence academic achievement.

Empathy in UK pharmacy students: assessing differences by gender, level in the degree programme, part-time employment and medical status

Background: Empathy is an important aspect of patient–healthcare professional interactions.Aims: To investigate whether gender, level in the degree programme, employment and health status affected empathy scores of undergraduate pharmacy students.Method: All undergraduate pharmacy students (n=529) at Queen’s University Belfast were invited via email to completean online validated empathy questionnaire. Empathy scores were calculated and non-parametric tests used to determine associations between factors.Results: Response rate was 60.1% (318/529) and the mean empathy score was 106.19. Scores can range from 20 to 140,with higher scores representing a greater degree of empathy. There was no significant difference between genders (p=0.211). There was a significant difference in scores across the four levels of the programme (p<0.001); scores were lowest at Level 1 and greatest at Level 4 (final year). There were no significant differences in scores for respondents who had a part-time job, a chronic condition, or took regular medication in comparison to those who did not (p=0.028,p=0.880, p=0.456, respectively).Conclusion: A reasonable level of empathy was found relative to other studies; this could be further enhanced at lower levels of the degree pathway.

Behavioural reactivity of ewes and lambs during partial and total social isolation

This work investigated the differences in the reactivity of Sarda (primiparous n= 18, multiparous n= 17) and Dorset (multiparous n= 8) breeds of sheep and their singleton lambs to two challenging test situations involving a mother-lamb partial separation test and an isolation test. Non-parametric analysis used single behavioural variables and fear scores to evaluate the effect of parity, sex of lambs, and the association between mother-lamb behaviour. Amongst ewes, Dorset were characterised by a more calm temperament while Sarda (especially primiparous ewes) were more active in their response to challenge (i.e. more attempts to escape). As with their dams, lambs reflected to a certain extent this divergence and overall during isolation lamb fear score was on average significantly higher than dams. Correlations between measures of behavioural reactivity across tests were carried out to search for predictive measures of fear. A very strong correlation emerged linking vocalisation to locomotor activity. Vocalisation could be a good candidate as predictor factor of an active reaction of sheep to a fearful situation.