978 resultados para Natural risk
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Purpose: To describe the prevalence and natural history of retinopathy in a cohort of children and young people with type 1 diabetes attending a tertiary hospital diabetes clinic. Methods: We analysed retinopathy screening data from 2008 to 2010 on all eligible children using the 'Twinkle' diabetes database and the regional retinal screening database. Results: A total of 88% (149/169) of eligible children were screened in 2008, median age 14 years, 52% male. The prevalence of retinopathy was 19.5% (30/149). All children had background retinopathy grade R1. There was significant difference in median (range) duration of diabetes, 7.7 years (0.6–13.7) vs 5 years (0.2–12.5) (P<0.001) and median (range) HbA1C, 9.1% (7.2–14) vs 8.6% (5.6–13.1) (P=0.02), between the groups with and without retinopathy. At 2- years follow-up, 12/30 (40%) had unchanged retinopathy grade R1, 10/30 (33.3%) showed resolution of changes (R0), 1/30 progressed to maculopathy, and 7/30 had no follow-up data. Median (range) HbA1C in 2008 and 2010 for the groups with stable vs resolved changes was similar, 9.1% (7.2–14.0) and 9.2% (7–14.0) vs 9.5% (7.8–14.0) and 9.2% (8.7–14.0). Of the 119 without retinopathy in 2008, 27 (22.5%) had developed retinopathy within 2 years, including 1 with pre-proliferative retinopathy and 1 with maculopathy. There was no significant difference in HbA1c between those who progressed to retinopathy (8.7% (7.1–13.1)) (8.7% (7.1–13.1)), and those who did not (8.6% (6.3–12.2)). Conclusions: Prevalence of background retinopathy in our cohort was comparable to the previously published reports, with higher HbA1c and longer duration of diabetes being significant risk factors. On short-term follow-up, Grade 1 retinopathy is likely to resolve in a third of patients and remain unchanged in just over a third.
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Habitat loss, fragmentation, and degradation threaten the World’s ecosystems and species. These, and other threats, will likely be exacerbated by climate change. Due to a limited budget for conservation, we are forced to prioritize a few areas over others. These places are selected based on their uniqueness and vulnerability. One of the most famous examples is the biodiversity hotspots: areas where large quantities of endemic species meet alarming rates of habitat loss. Most of these places are in the tropics, where species have smaller ranges, diversity is higher, and ecosystems are most threatened.
Species distributions are useful to understand ecological theory and evaluate extinction risk. Small-ranged species, or those endemic to one place, are more vulnerable to extinction than widely distributed species. However, current range maps often overestimate the distribution of species, including areas that are not within the suitable elevation or habitat for a species. Consequently, assessment of extinction risk using these maps could underestimate vulnerability.
In order to be effective in our quest to conserve the World’s most important places we must: 1) Translate global and national priorities into practical local actions, 2) Find synergies between biodiversity conservation and human welfare, 3) Evaluate the different dimensions of threats, in order to design effective conservation measures and prepare for future threats, and 4) Improve the methods used to evaluate species’ extinction risk and prioritize areas for conservation. The purpose of this dissertation is to address these points in Colombia and other global biodiversity hotspots.
In Chapter 2, I identified the global, strategic conservation priorities and then downscaled to practical local actions within the selected priorities in Colombia. I used existing range maps of 171 bird species to identify priority conservation areas that would protect the greatest number of species at risk in Colombia (endemic and small-ranged species). The Western Andes had the highest concentrations of such species—100 in total—but the lowest densities of national parks. I then adjusted the priorities for this region by refining these species ranges by selecting only areas of suitable elevation and remaining habitat. The estimated ranges of these species shrank by 18–100% after accounting for habitat and suitable elevation. Setting conservation priorities on the basis of currently available range maps excluded priority areas in the Western Andes and, by extension, likely elsewhere and for other taxa. By incorporating detailed maps of remaining natural habitats, I made practical recommendations for conservation actions. One recommendation was to restore forest connections to a patch of cloud forest about to become isolated from the main Andes.
For Chapter 3, I identified areas where bird conservation met ecosystem service protection in the Central Andes of Colombia. Inspired by the November 11th (2011) landslide event near Manizales, and the current poor results of Colombia’s Article 111 of Law 99 of 1993 as a conservation measure in this country, I set out to prioritize conservation and restoration areas where landslide prevention would complement bird conservation in the Central Andes. This area is one of the most biodiverse places on Earth, but also one of the most threatened. Using the case of the Rio Blanco Reserve, near Manizales, I identified areas for conservation where endemic and small-range bird diversity was high, and where landslide risk was also high. I further prioritized restoration areas by overlapping these conservation priorities with a forest cover map. Restoring forests in bare areas of high landslide risk and important bird diversity yields benefits for both biodiversity and people. I developed a simple landslide susceptibility model using slope, forest cover, aspect, and stream proximity. Using publicly available bird range maps, refined by elevation, I mapped concentrations of endemic and small-range bird species. I identified 1.54 km2 of potential restoration areas in the Rio Blanco Reserve, and 886 km2 in the Central Andes region. By prioritizing these areas, I facilitate the application of Article 111 which requires local and regional governments to invest in land purchases for the conservation of watersheds.
Chapter 4 dealt with elevational ranges of montane birds and the impact of lowland deforestation on their ranges in the Western Andes of Colombia, an important biodiversity hotspot. Using point counts and mist-nets, I surveyed six altitudinal transects spanning 2200 to 2800m. Three transects were forested from 2200 to 2800m, and three were partially deforested with forest cover only above 2400m. I compared abundance-weighted mean elevation, minimum elevation, and elevational range width. In addition to analyzing the effect of deforestation on 134 species, I tested its impact within trophic guilds and habitat preference groups. Abundance-weighted mean and minimum elevations were not significantly different between forested and partially deforested transects. Range width was marginally different: as expected, ranges were larger in forested transects. Species in different trophic guilds and habitat preference categories showed different trends. These results suggest that deforestation may affect species’ elevational ranges, even within the forest that remains. Climate change will likely exacerbate harmful impacts of deforestation on species’ elevational distributions. Future conservation strategies need to account for this by protecting connected forest tracts across a wide range of elevations.
In Chapter 5, I refine the ranges of 726 species from six biodiversity hotspots by suitable elevation and habitat. This set of 172 bird species for the Atlantic Forest, 138 for Central America, 100 for the Western Andes of Colombia, 57 for Madagascar, 102 for Sumatra, and 157 for Southeast Asia met the criteria for range size, endemism, threat, and forest use. Of these 586 species, the Red List deems 108 to be threatened: 15 critically endangered, 29 endangered, and 64 vulnerable. When ranges are refined by elevational limits and remaining forest cover, 10 of those critically endangered species have ranges < 100km2, but then so do 2 endangered species, seven vulnerable, and eight non-threatened ones. Similarly, 4 critically endangered species, 20 endangered, and 12 vulnerable species have refined ranges < 5000km2, but so do 66 non-threatened species. A striking 89% of these species I have classified in higher threat categories have <50% of their refined ranges inside protected areas. I find that for 43% of the species I assessed, refined range sizes fall within thresholds that typically have higher threat categories than their current assignments. I recommend these species for closer inspection by those who assess risk. These assessments are not only important on a species-by-species basis, but by combining distributions of threatened species, I create maps of conservation priorities. They differ significantly from those created from unrefined ranges.
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Preparedness has become a central component to contemporary approaches to flood risk management as there is a growing recognition that our reliance on engineered flood defences is unsustainable within the context of more extreme and unpredictable weather events. Whilst many researchers have focused their attention on exploring the key factors influencing flood-risk preparedness at the individual level, little consideration has been attributed to how we understand preparedness conceptually and practically in the first instance. This paper seeks to address this particular gap by identifying and analysing the diverse range of conceptualisations of preparedness and typologies of preparedness measures that exist within the literature in order to identify areas of convergence and divergence. In doing so, we demonstrate that a considerable degree of confusion remains in terms of how preparedness is defined, conceptualised and categorised. We conclude by reflecting on the implications this has from an academic perspective, but also in terms of the more practical aspects of flood risk management.
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To get a better insight into the radiological features of industrial by-products that can be reused in building materials a review of the reported scientific data can be very useful. The current study is based on the continuously growing database of the By-BM (H2020-MSCA-IF-2015) project (By-products for Building Materials). Currently, the By-BM database contains individual data of about 431 by-products and 1095 building and raw materials. It was found that in case of the building materials the natural radionuclide content varied widely (Ra-226: <DL-27851 Bq/kg; Th-232: <DL-906 Bq/kg, K-40: <DL-17922 Bq/kg), more so than for the by-products (Ra-226: 7-3152 Bq/kg; Th-232: <DL-1350 Bq/kg, K-40: <DL-3001 Bq/kg). The average Ra-226, Th-232 and K-40 contents of the reported by-products were respectively 2.52, 2.35 and 0.39 times higher than the building materials. The gamma exposure of bulk building products was calculated according to IAEA Specific Safety Guide No. SSG-32 and the European Commission Radiation Protection 112 based I-index (EU BSS). It was found that in most cases the I-index without density consideration provides a significant overestimation in excess effective dose.
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Widespread flooding in June 2013 caused damage costs of €6 to 8 billion in Germany, and awoke many memories of the floods in August 2002, which resulted in total damage of €11.6 billion and hence was the most expensive natural hazard event in Germany up to now. The event of 2002 does, however, also mark a reorientation toward an integrated flood risk management system in Germany. Therefore, the flood of 2013 offered the opportunity to review how the measures that politics, administration, and civil society have implemented since 2002 helped to cope with the flood and what still needs to be done to achieve effective and more integrated flood risk management. The review highlights considerable improvements on many levels, in particular (1) an increased consideration of flood hazards in spatial planning and urban development, (2) comprehensive property-level mitigation and preparedness measures, (3) more effective flood warnings and improved coordination of disaster response, and (4) a more targeted maintenance of flood defense systems. In 2013, this led to more effective flood management and to a reduction of damage. Nevertheless, important aspects remain unclear and need to be clarified. This particularly holds for balanced and coordinated strategies for reducing and overcoming the impacts of flooding in large catchments, cross-border and interdisciplinary cooperation, the role of the general public in the different phases of flood risk management, as well as a transparent risk transfer system. Recurring flood events reveal that flood risk management is a continuous task. Hence, risk drivers, such as climate change, land-use changes, economic developments, or demographic change and the resultant risks must be investigated at regular intervals, and risk reduction strategies and processes must be reassessed as well as adapted and implemented in a dialogue with all stakeholders.
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Thesis (Master's)--University of Washington, 2016-08
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Inland flood risks are defined by a range of environmental and social factors, including land use and floodplain management. Shifting patterns of storm intensity and precipitation, attributed to climate change, are exacerbating flood risk in regions across North America. Strategies for adapting to growing flood risks and climate change must account for a community’s specific vulnerabilities, and its local economic, environmental, and social conditions. Through a stakeholder-engaged methodology, we designed an interactive decision exercise to enable stakeholders to evaluate alternatives for addressing specific community flood vulnerabilities. We used a multicriteria framework to understand what drives stakeholder preferences for flood mitigation and adaptation alternatives, including ecosystem-based projects. Results indicated strong preferences for some ecosystem-based projects that utilize natural capital, generated a useful discussion on the role of individual values in driving decisions and a critique of local environmental and hazard planning procedure, and uncovered support for a river management alternative that had previously been considered socially infeasible. We conclude that a multicriteria decision framework may help ensure that the multiple benefit qualities of natural capital projects are considered by decision makers. Application of a utility function can demonstrate the role of individual decision-maker values in decision outcomes and help illustrate why one alternative may be a better choice than another. Although designing an efficient and accurate multicriteria exercise is quite challenging and often data intensive, we imagine that this method is applicable elsewhere. It may be especially suitable to group decisions that involve varying levels of expertise and competing values, as is often the case in planning for the ecological and human impacts of climate change.
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Thesis (Master's)--University of Washington, 2016-06
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Italy and its urban systems are under high seismic and hydrogeological risks. The awareness about the role of human activities in the genesis of disasters is achieved in the scientific debate, as well as the role of urban and regional planning in reducing risks. The paper reviews the state of Italian major cities referred to hydrogeological and seismic risk by: 1) extrapolating data and maps about seismic hazard and landslide risk concerning cities with more than 50.000 inhabitants and metropolitan contexts, and 2) outlining how risk reduction is framed in Italian planning system (at national and regional levels). The analyses of available data and the review of the normative framework highlight the existing gaps in addressing risk reduction: nevertheless a wide knowledge about natural risks afflicting Italian territory and an articulated regulatory framework, the available data about risks are not exhaustive, and risk reduction policies and multidisciplinary pro-active approaches are only partially fostered and applied.
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The geography of Scotland, with a highly undulating hinterland, long and indented coastline, together with a large number of islands, means that much social and economic activity is largely located at the coast. The importance of the coast is further highlighted by the large number of ecosystem services derived from the coast. The threat posed by climate change, particularly current and future sea level rise, is of considerable concern and the associated coastal erosion and coastal flooding has the potential to have a substantial effect on the socioeconomic activity of the whole country. Currently, the knowledge base of coastal erosion is poor, which serves to hinder the current and future management of the coast. This research reported here aimed to establish four key aspects of coastal erosion within Scotland: the physical susceptibility of the coast to erosion; the assets exposed to coastal erosion; the vulnerability of communities to coastal erosion; and the coastal erosion risk to those communities. Coastal erosion susceptibility was modelled here within a GIS, using data for ground elevation, rockhead elevation, wave exposure and proximity to the open coast. Combining these data produced the Underlying Physical Susceptibility Model (UPSM), in the form of a 50 m2 raster of national coverage. The Coastal Erosion Susceptibility Model (CESM) was produced with the addition of sediment supply and coastal defence data, which then moderates the outputs of the UPSM. Asset data for dwellings, key assets, transport infrastructure, historic assets, and natural assets were used along with the UPSM and CESM to assess their degree of exposure to coastal erosion. A Coastal Erosion Vulnerability Model (CEVM) was produced using Experian Mosaic Scotland (a geodemographic classification which identifies 44 different social groups within Scotland) to classify populations based upon 11 vulnerability variables. Dwellings were assigned a CESM and CEVM score in order to establish their coastal erosion risk. This research demonstrated that the issue of coastal erosion will impact on a relatively low number of properties compared to those impacted by flooding (both coastal and fluvial) as many dwellings are already protected by coastal defences. There is therefore, a considerable future liability, and great pressure for coastal defences to be maintained and upgraded in their current form. The use of the CEVM is a novel inclusion within a coastal erosion assessment for Scotland. Use of the CEVM established that coastal erosion risk is not distributed equally amongst the Scottish coastal population and highlighted that risk can be reduced by either reducing exposure or reducing vulnerability. Thus far in Scotland, reducing exposure has been the primary management approach, which has a number of implications with regards social justice. This research identified the existing data gaps that should be addressed by future research in order to further improve coastal management in Scotland. Future research should focus on assessing historical coastal change rates on a national scale, improve modelling of national scale wave exposure, enhance the information held about current coastal defences and, determine the direct and indirect economic cost associated with the loss of different asset types. It is also necessary to clarify the social justice implications of using adaptation approaches to manage coastal erosion as well as establishing a method to communicate the susceptibility, exposure, vulnerability and risk aspects whilst minimising the potential negative impacts (e.g. property blight) of releasing such information.
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Rapid climatic changes are taking place in Arctic, subarctic and cold temperate regions, where predictions point to an increase in freeze-thaw events, changes in precipitation, evaporation and salinity patterns. Climate change may therefore result in large impacts in ecosystem functioning and dynamics, especially in the presence of contaminants due to intense anthropogenic activities. Even though multiple stress approaches have received increasing interest in the last decades, the number of such studies is limited. In particular, knowledge on the effect of freezethaw events and salinity fluctuations on ecotoxicology of soil invertebrates is lacking, especially important when considering supralittoral species. Therefore, the aim of this thesis was to investigate the effects of low temperature and salinity fluctuations, singly and in combination with contaminants, in the freeze-tolerant and euryhaline enchytraeid Enchytraeus albidus. The assessment of population level endpoints (survival and reproduction), along with physiological and biochemical parameters such as levels of cryoprotectants, ice/water content, oxidative stress biomarkers, cellular energy allocation, and tissue concentration of chemicals (when applied), provided new and valuable knowledge on the effects of selected physical and chemical stressors in E. albidus, and allowed the understanding of adjustments in the primary response mechanisms that enable worms to maintain homeostasis and survival in harsh environments such as polar and temperate-cold regions. The presence of moderate levels of salinity significantly increased freeze-tolerance (mainly evaluated as survival, cryoprotection and ice fraction) and reproduction of E. albidus. Moreover, it contributed to the readjustments of cryoprotectant levels, restoration of antioxidant levels and changed singnificantly the effect and uptake of chemicals (copper cadmium, carbendazim and 4-nonylphenol). Temperature fluctuations (simulated as daily freeze-thaw cycles, between -2ºC and -4ºC) caused substancial negative effect on survival of worms previsouly exposed to non-lethal concentrations of 4-nonylphenol, as compared with constant freezing (-4ºC) and control temperature (2ºC). The decrease in cryoprotectants, increase in energy consumption and the highest concentration of 4-nonylphenol in the tissues have highlighted the high energy requirements and level of toxicity experienced by worms exposed to the combined effect of contaminants and freezing-thawing events. The findings reported on this thesis demonstrate that natural (physical) and chemical stressors, singly or in combination, may alter the dynamics of E. albidus, affecting not only their survival and reproduction (and consequent presence/distribution) but also their physiological and biochemical adaptations. These alterations may lead to severe consequences for the functioning of the ecosystems along the Arctic, subarctic and cold temperate regions, where they play an important role for decomposition of dead organic matter. This thesis provides a scientific basis for improving the setting of safety factors for natural soil ecosystems, and to underline the integration of similar investigations in ecotoxicology, and eventually in risk assessment of contaminants.
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The Vitamin E consists of eight chemically homologous forms, designated alpha, beta, gamma and delta tocopherols and tocotrienols. Biologically, the alpha-tocopherol (α-TOH) is the most important. Commercially, are found two types of α-TOH a natural (RRR-alpha-tocopherol) and another synthetic (all-rac-alpha-tocopherol). Both forms are absorbed in the intestine, the liver is a preference in favor of forms 2R, due to transfer protein α-TOH. It has higher affinity to these stereoisomers. Newborns are considered high risk for vitamin E deficiency, mainly premature, these have breast milk as a food source for maintenance of serum α-TOH. Clinical signs such as thrombocytosis, hemolytic anemia, retrolental fibroplasia, intraventricular hemorrhage, bronchopulmonary dysplasia and spinocerebellar degeneration can be found in case of a low intake of α-TOH. Thus, maternal supplementation on postpartum with α-TOH can be an efficient way to increase levels of vitamin E in breast milk and thus the consequently increase the supply of micronutrient for the newborn. However, most studies with vitamin E supplementation have been conducted in animals and little is known about the effect of maternal supplementation in humans, as well as on its efficiency to increase levels of α-TOH in human milk, depending on the shape natural or synthetic. The study included 109 women, divided into three groups: control without supplementation (GC) (n=36), supplemented with natural capsule (GNAT) (n=40) and the synthetic capsule (GSINT) (n=33). Blood samples were collected for determination of maternal nutritional status, and colostrums at initial contact and after 24 hours post-supplementation. Analyses were performed by High Performance Liquid Chromatography. Values of α-TOH in serum below 499.6mg/dL were considered deficient. We used the Kruskal-Wallis test and Tukey test to confirm the increase of alpha-tocopherol in milk and efficiency of administered capsules. Daily consumption of α-TOH was based on daily intake of 500 mL of colostrum by the newborn and compared with the nutritional requirement for children from 0 to 6 months of age, 4 mg / day. The mothers had mean concentration of serum α-TOH in 1016 ± 52, 1236 ± 51 and 1083 ± 61 mg / dL, in CG, GNAT and GSINT respectively. There were no women with deficiiency. The GC did not change the concentrations of α-TOH in colostrum. While women supplemented with natural and synthetic forms increased concentrations of α-TOH colostrum in 57.6% and 39%, respectively. By comparing supplemented groups, it was observed a significant difference (p=0.04), the natural capsule more efficient than the synthetic, approximately 49.6%. Individually, 21.1% of the women provided below 4mg/day of α-TOH, after supplementation for this index declined4.1%. Thus, maternal supplementation postpartum raised the levels of alpha-tocopherol in colostrum, and increased efficiency was observed with the natural form
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This study aimed to verify the diversity of Culicidae species and their frequency of infection with flaviviruses and alphaviruses in Cuiabá, state of Mato Grosso, Brazil. Mosquitoes were captured with Nasci aspirators and hand net in 200 census tracts, identified alive at species level and pooled in one-20 (11,090 mosquitoes, 14 species). Female pools (n = 610) were subjected to multiplex seminested-reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) for 11 flavivirus and five alphavirus. Positive pools were tested by single RT-PCR followed by nucleotide sequencing, by RT-PCR for E1 gene [Mayaro virus (MAYV)] and by inoculation in Vero cells (MAYV) or C6/36 cells (flaviviruses). One/171 Aedes aegypti was positive for dengue virus (DENV)-1, 12/403 Culex quinquefasciatus , and four/171 Ae. aegypti for MAYV, which was isolated from two pools containing two nonengorged females of Ae. aegypti and two of Cx. quinquefasciatus. DENV-4 was detected in 58/171 pools of Ae. aegytpi, 105/403 Cx. quinquefasciatus, two/five Psorophora sp., two/11 Psorophora varipes / Psorophora albigenu , one/one Sabethes chloropterus , two/five Culex bidens / Culex interfor , and one/one Aedes sp. DENV-4 was isolated from two pools containing three and 16 nonengorged Cx. quinquefasciatus females. Phylogenetic analysis revealed MAYV belongs to genotype L, clustering with human samples of the virus previously identified in the city. Cuiabá has biodiversity and ecosystem favourable for vector proliferation, representing a risk for arbovirus outbreaks.
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Increasing research suggests that elevations in the cortisol awakening response (CAR), the natural increase of cortisol 30 to 40 minutes after waking, may serve as a vulnerability marker for depression. However, existing studies have focused on adolescence and adulthood; very little is known about the CAR in early childhood and the factors that are associated with it. The current study aimed to examine the validity of the CAR as a potential early-emerging vulnerability marker for depression in a sample of preschool-age children. We examined associations between the CAR and two well-established risk factors for depression: maternal psychopathology and early child temperament (high negative emotionality (NE) and/or low positive emotionality (PE)). The sample consisted of 146 preschool-age children, of whom 71 (49.3%) had a biological mother with a history of depression and 65 (45.5%) had a biological mother with a history of anxiety. To assess the CAR, salivary cortisol samples were collected from the child upon waking, 30 and 45 minutes post-waking on two weekdays. Children’s CAR was examined as the total volume of cortisol secreted (AUCg) and the total increase in cortisol (AUCi) across waking. Evening cortisol was collected 30 minutes before bedtime. Child temperament was assessed using observational laboratory measures. Maternal depression and anxiety were assessed with clinical interviews. Associations with children’s CAR, as indicated by AUCg or AUCi, appeared to be specific to maternal current psychopathology and symptoms of anhedonia. Additionally, we observed significant interactions for both maternal lifetime and current depression and anxiety, in combination with child NE and PE, on elevated evening cortisol levels and flattened diurnal cortisol rhythms, indicating altered patterns of basal cortisol activity in offspring. Our study contributes to the limited but growing knowledge on the development of the CAR in preschool age children and as a marker of early risk. Findings suggest that there is a complex interplay between familial risk, affective vulnerability, and their joint effects on neuroendocrine dysfunction in young children, and highlight the need for future research to examine which aspects of the early diurnal rhythm predict the emergence of later depressive illness.