Desenvolvimento de uma framework de argumentação Para apoio à tomada de decisão ubíqua

Os Sistemas de Apoio à Tomada de Decisão em Grupo (SADG) surgiram com o objetivo de apoiar um conjunto de decisores no processo de tomada de decisão. Uma das abordagens mais comuns na literatura para a implementação dos SADG é a utilização de Sistemas Multi-Agente (SMA). Os SMA permitem refletir com maior transparência o contexto real, tanto na representação que cada agente faz do decisor que representa como no formato de comunicação utilizado. Com o crescimento das organizações, atualmente vive-se uma viragem no conceito de tomada de decisão. Cada vez mais, devido a questões como: o estilo de vida, os mercados globais e o tipo de tecnologias disponíveis, faz sentido falar de decisão ubíqua. Isto significa que o decisor deverá poder utilizar o sistema a partir de qualquer local, a qualquer altura e através dos mais variados tipos de dispositivos eletrónicos tais como tablets, smartphones, etc. Neste trabalho é proposto um novo modelo de argumentação, adaptado ao contexto da tomada de decisão ubíqua para ser utilizado por um SMA na resolução de problemas multi-critério. É assumido que cada agente poderá utilizar um estilo de comportamento que afeta o modo como esse agente interage com outros agentes em situações de conflito. Sendo assim, pretende-se estudar o impacto da utilização de estilos de comportamento ao longo do processo da tomada de decisão e perceber se os agentes modelados com estilos de comportamento conseguem atingir o consenso mais facilmente quando comparados com agentes que não apresentam nenhum estilo de comportamento. Pretende-se ainda estudar se o número de argumentos trocados entre os agentes é proporcional ao nível de consenso final após o processo de tomada de decisão. De forma a poder estudar as hipóteses de investigação desenvolveu-se um protótipo de um SADG, utilizando um SMA. Desenvolveu-se ainda uma framework de argumentação que foi adaptada ao protótipo desenvolvido. Os resultados obtidos permitiram validar as hipóteses definidas neste trabalho tendo-se concluído que os agentes modelados com estilos de comportamento conseguem na maioria das vezes atingir um consenso mais facilmente comparado com agentes que não apresentam nenhum estilo de comportamento e que o número de argumentos trocados entre os agentes durante o processo de tomada de decisão não é proporcional ao nível de consenso final.

Metodologia da determinação de prioridades no planeamento regional de saúde : uma proposta

RESUMO - O estabelecimento de prioridades determina a sustentabilidade de qualquer sistema de saúde, pelo que urge identificar os procedimentos, metodologias e critérios de priorização. Não existem critérios nem métodos universais de os combinar, sendo que a sua seleção depende do contexto de aplicação. O presente projeto de estudo exploratório-descritivo tem por finalidade a criação de uma proposta de metodologia a adotar na determinação de prioridades do Plano Regional de Saúde de Lisboa e Vale do Tejo 2011-2016, contextualizada à região, tempo e circunstâncias. O estudo está organizado em duas etapas metodológicas: uma revisão bibliográfica, dirigida à identificação do método e dos critérios de determinação de prioridades, e a realização de um painel de Delphi, para validação do método de determinação de prioridades proposto, definição dos critérios e suas ponderações. Tendo sido encontrada evidência na literatura sobre as vantagens da utilização da Análise Multicritério da Tomada de Decisão, através da utilização do Método Aditivo Linear, na determinação de prioridades em saúde, foi selecionada esta metodologia, que obteve a concordância de 85% dos participantes para a sua utilização no contexto em estudo, na primeira ronda do painel de Delphi. Os resultados preliminares do estudo, obtidos na primeira ronda, mostram que um dos onze critérios propostos foi excluído, tendo sido sugeridos sete novos critérios pelos participantes, que serão sujeitos a análise nas rondas subsequentes. Os resultados obtidos poderão servir de base a estudos mais aprofundados nesta área e contribuir para o debate sobre os critérios subjacentes ao processo de determinação de prioridades em saúde.

The implementation of an Enterprise Geographical Information System to support Cadastre and Expropriation activities.

The processes of mobilization of land for infrastructures of public and private domain are developed according to proper legal frameworks and systematically confronted with the impoverished national situation as regards the cadastral identification and regularization, which leads to big inefficiencies, sometimes with very negative impact to the overall effectiveness. This project report describes Ferbritas Cadastre Information System (FBSIC) project and tools, which in conjunction with other applications, allow managing the entire life-cycle of Land Acquisition and Cadastre, including support to field activities with the integration of information collected in the field, the development of multi-criteria analysis information, monitoring all information in the exploration stage, and the automated generation of outputs. The benefits are evident at the level of operational efficiency, including tools that enable process integration and standardization of procedures, facilitate analysis and quality control and maximize performance in the acquisition, maintenance and management of registration information and expropriation (expropriation projects). Therefore, the implemented system achieves levels of robustness, comprehensiveness, openness, scalability and reliability suitable for a structural platform. The resultant solution, FBSIC, is a fit-for-purpose cadastre information system rooted in the field of railway infrastructures. FBSIC integrating nature of allows: to accomplish present needs and scale to meet future services; to collect, maintain, manage and share all information in one common platform, and transform it into knowledge; to relate with other platforms; to increase accuracy and productivity of business processes related with land property management.

Os sistemas de informação geográfica e a análise multicritério para o estudo da acessibilidade e mobilidade da rede escolar no município da Humpata (Angola)

O presente trabalho faz uma abordagem aos Sistemas de Informação Geográfica (SIG) e a análise multicritério (AMC) para o estudo da acessibilidade da rede escolar do município de Humpata, província da Huíla, situada em Angola. Neste trabalho pretende-se demonstrar as dificuldades de acessibilidade e mobilidade tendo em conta aos principais factores que condicionam a rede escolar e também a acessibilidade em termos de oferta e recursos, analisando com algum pormenor as condições de ensino que as escolas oferecem. Por outro lado foram também elaborados modelos de velocidade com o objectivo de verificar a distância-tempo percorrida pelos usuários considerando o declive do terreno. Ficou demonstrado que, para o estudo da acessibilidade da rede escolar, o uso dos SIG e a AMC fornecem resultados com relevância na tomada de decisão. A AMC conjugada com a álgebra de mapas, permitiu registar as disparidades de acessibilidade entre diferentes povoações que compõem o município. Aconselha-se por isso a utilização de ferramentas de análise espacial como os SIG, em contextos como o do município de Humpata onde os recursos escassos devem ser bem geridos, de forma a levar os serviços públicos e privados à maior parte da população e às povoações que mais necessitam através da localização óptima dos futuros serviços, que no caso das instituições escolares concorrera para garantia do sucesso escolar.

Defining risk acceptance criteria in occupational settings: A case study in the furniture industrial sector

The use of appropriate acceptance criteria in the risk assessment process for occupational accidents is an important issue but often overlooked in the literature, particularly when new risk assessment methods are proposed and discussed. In most cases, there is no information on how or by whom they were defined, or even how companies can adapt them to their own circumstances. Bearing this in mind, this study analysed the problem of the definition of risk acceptance criteria for occupational settings, defining the quantitative acceptance criteria for the specific case study of the Portuguese furniture industrial sector. The key steps to be considered in formulating acceptance criteria were analysed in the literature review. By applying the identified steps, the acceptance criteria for the furniture industrial sector were then defined. The Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF) for the injury statistics of the industrial sector was identified as the maximum tolerable risk level. The acceptable threshold was defined by adjusting the CDF to the Occupational, Safety & Health (OSH) practitioners’ risk acceptance judgement. Adjustments of acceptance criteria to the companies’ safety cultures were exemplified by adjusting the Burr distribution parameters. An example of a risk matrix was also used to demonstrate the integration of the defined acceptance criteria into a risk metric. This work has provided substantial contributions to the issue of acceptance criteria for occupational accidents, which may be useful in overcoming the practical difficulties faced by authorities, companies and experts.

Development of an intelligent earthwork optimization system

Tese de Doutoramento em Engenharia Civil.

Gestió forestal de masses d'arboç (Arbutus unedo) en regeneració després de foc al terme municipal d'Esparreguera

Els incendis forestals són una pertorbació amb un paper decisiu en l’estructura i dinàmica dels ecosistemes mediterranis. La majoria de les seves espècies vegetals presenten mecanismes de resposta al foc, com la germinació de llavors i la rebrotada d’individus cremats. Les masses forestals regenerades a partir de rebrots assoleixen densitats massa altes i una baixa producció, i, per tant, és fonamental dur a terme una gestió mitjançant tractaments silvícoles. El principal objectiu d’aquest projecte és quantificar l’efecte de la selecció de rebrots i la selecció de rebrots més la desbrossada sobre el creixement de l’Arbutus unedo. S’han estudiat 12 parcel—les en regeneració després dels incendis de 1985, 1986 i 1994 al terme municipal d’Esparreguera. Els resultats mostren que els dos tractaments afavoreixen de la mateixa manera el creixement dels peus d’Arbutus unedo, a causa de la disminució de la competència intraespecífica i interespecífica. La desbrossada (a nivell de parcel—la, no d’individu), no obstant, provoca un increment probablement perjudicial de l’alçada dels rebrots, per la major disponibilitat de llum. Per tal de proposar un model de gestió forestal, s’ha realitzat una anàlisi multicriterial dels diferents escenaris, on s’han considerat altres criteris, com són el model de combustible, la possibilitat de pastura i el cost econòmic. L’alternativa preferida en els boscos d’Arbutus unedo és la selecció de rebrots i la desbrossada.

Classificació i importància dels elements paisatgístics del territori Tsimane' segons la percepció local

En aquesta tesis es presenten els resultats de la investigació duta a terme a les comunitats indígenes Tsimane’ de l’Amazònia boliviana. La investigació estudia la percepció dels indígenes sobre l’etnoclassificació del seu territori. S’estableix una clau de classificació i es determina la importància dels elements paisatgístics del territori Tsimane’ segons la percepció local. Aquesta informació permetrà integrar el coneixement local dins dels programes de desenvolupament integral i de planificació territorial en l’Amazònia Boliviana. L’estudi conclou que la població Tsimane’ classifica els elements paisatgístics del seu entorn en 89 taques conformades per una espècies arbòria dominant i que estan incloses en un o més dels nou paisatges identificats: Därsi Därä, Sajras, Sinues Ojñi’, Mayes, Múcúya, Tsäquis Därä, Cum, Tajñi’ i Jaman. A partir d’un anàlisi multicriteri s’ha determinat una importància total per cada paisatge segons els següents criteris d’importància: diversitat de taques, activitats econòmiques realitzables, presència espiritual, percepció individual i importància relativa segons els altres paisatges. Així doncs s’ha trobat que el paisatge més important és el Därsi Därä (bosc primari caracteritzat per un estrat arbori superior a 50 metres d’altura). També s’han analitzat les dades discernint segons el gènere de l’entrevistat i segons la proximitat de les comunitats estudiades a la ciutat més propera.

Integrated assessment of agricultural sustainability: the pros and cons of reductionism

In this paper I review a series of theoretical concepts that are relevant for the integrated assessment of agricultural sustainability but that are not generally included in the curriculum of the various scientific disciplines dealing with quantitative analysis of agriculture. I first illustrate with plain narratives and concrete examples that sustainability is an extremely complex issue requiring the simultaneous consideration of several aspects, which cannot be reduced into a single indicator of performance. Following, I justify this obvious need for multi-criteria analysis with theoretical concepts dealing with the epistemological predicament of complexity, starting from classic philosophical lessons to arrive to recent developments in complex system theory, in particular Rosen´s theory of modelling relation which is essential to analyze the quality of any quantitative representation. The implications of these theoretical concepts are then illustrated with applications of multi-criteria analysis to the sustainability of agriculture. I wrap up by pointing out the crucial difference between "integrated assessment" and "integrated analysis". An integrated analysis is a set of indicators and analytical models generating an analytical output. An integrated assessment is much more than that. It is about finding an effective way to deal with three key issues: (i) legitimacy – how to handle the unavoidable existence of legitimate but contrasting points of view about different meanings given by social actors to the word "development"; (ii) pertinence – how to handle in a coherent way scientific analyses referring to different scales and dimensions; and (iii) credibility – how to handle the unavoidable existence of uncertainty and genuine ignorance, when dealing with the analysis of future scenarios.

An analysis of the metabolic patterns of two rural communities affected by soy expansion in the North of Argentina

The soy expansion model in Argentina generates structural changes in traditional lifestyles that can be associated with different biophysical and socioeconomic impacts. To explore this issue, we apply an innovative method for integrated assessment - the Multi Scale Integrated Analysis of Societal and Ecosystem Metabolism (MuSIASEM) framework - to characterize two communities in the Chaco Region, Province of Formosa, North of Argentina. These communities have recently experienced the expansion of soy production, altering their economic activity, energy consumption patterns, land use, and human time allocation. The integrated characterization presented in the paper illustrates the differences (biophysical, socioeconomic, and historical) between the two communities that can be associated with different responses. The analysis of the factors behind these differences has important policy implications for the sustainable development of local communities in the area.

Cumulative dominance and heuristic performance in binary multi-attribute choice

Several studies have reported high performance of simple decision heuristics multi-attribute decision making. In this paper, we focus on situations where attributes are binary and analyze the performance of Deterministic-Elimination-By-Aspects (DEBA) and similar decision heuristics. We consider non-increasing weights and two probabilistic models for the attribute values: one where attribute values are independent Bernoulli randomvariables; the other one where they are binary random variables with inter-attribute positive correlations. Using these models, we show that good performance of DEBA is explained by the presence of cumulative as opposed to simple dominance. We therefore introduce the concepts of cumulative dominance compliance and fully cumulative dominance compliance and show that DEBA satisfies those properties. We derive a lower bound with which cumulative dominance compliant heuristics will choose a best alternative and show that, even with many attributes, this is not small. We also derive an upper bound for the expected loss of fully cumulative compliance heuristics and show that this is moderateeven when the number of attributes is large. Both bounds are independent of the values ofthe weights.

The efficiency of different estimation methods of hydro-physical limits

The soil water available to crops is defined by specific values of water potential limits. Underlying the estimation of hydro-physical limits, identified as permanent wilting point (PWP) and field capacity (FC), is the selection of a suitable method based on a multi-criteria analysis that is not always clear and defined. In this kind of analysis, the time required for measurements must be taken into consideration as well as other external measurement factors, e.g., the reliability and suitability of the study area, measurement uncertainty, cost, effort and labour invested. In this paper, the efficiency of different methods for determining hydro-physical limits is evaluated by using indices that allow for the calculation of efficiency in terms of effort and cost. The analysis evaluates both direct determination methods (pressure plate - PP and water activity meter - WAM) and indirect estimation methods (pedotransfer functions - PTFs). The PTFs must be validated for the area of interest before use, but the time and cost associated with this validation are not included in the cost of analysis. Compared to the other methods, the combined use of PP and WAM to determine hydro-physical limits differs significantly in time and cost required and quality of information. For direct methods, increasing sample size significantly reduces cost and time. This paper assesses the effectiveness of combining a general analysis based on efficiency indices and more specific analyses based on the different influencing factors, which were considered separately so as not to mask potential benefits or drawbacks that are not evidenced in efficiency estimation.

The Uncertain generalized probabilistic weighted average and its application in the theory of expertons

A new model for dealing with decision making under risk by considering subjective and objective information in the same formulation is here presented. The uncertain probabilistic weighted average (UPWA) is also presented. Its main advantage is that it unifies the probability and the weighted average in the same formulation and considering the degree of importance that each case has in the analysis. Moreover, it is able to deal with uncertain environments represented in the form of interval numbers. We study some of its main properties and particular cases. The applicability of the UPWA is also studied and it is seen that it is very broad because all the previous studies that use the probability or the weighted average can be revised with this new approach. Focus is placed on a multi-person decision making problem regarding the selection of strategies by using the theory of expertons.

Decision making techniques with similarity measures and OWA operators

We analyse the use of the ordered weighted average (OWA) in decision-making giving special attention to business and economic decision-making problems. We present several aggregation techniques that are very useful for decision-making such as the Hamming distance, the adequacy coefficient and the index of maximum and minimum level. We suggest a new approach by using immediate weights, that is, by using the weighted average and the OWA operator in the same formulation. We further generalize them by using generalized and quasi-arithmetic means. We also analyse the applicability of the OWA operator in business and economics and we see that we can use it instead of the weighted average. We end the paper with an application in a business multi-person decision-making problem regarding production management

Outcome evaluation of ankle osteoarthritis treatments using spatio-temporal gait parameters and plantar pressure during unconstrained long distance walking : P25

Introduction: Ankle arthrodesis (AD) and total ankle replacement (TAR) are typical treatments for ankle osteoarthritis (AO). Despite clinical interest, there is a lack of their outcome evaluation using objective criteria. Gait analysis and plantar pressure assessment are appropriate to detect pathologies in orthopaedics but they are mostly used in lab with few gait cycles. In this study, we propose an ambulatory device based on inertial and plantar pressure sensors to compare the gait during long-distance trials between healthy subjects (H) and patients with AO or treated by AD and TAR. Methods: Our study included four groups: 11 patients with AO, 9 treated by TAR, 7 treated by AD and 6 control subjects. An ambulatory system (Physilog®, CH) was used for gait analysis; plantar pressure measurements were done using a portable insole (Pedar®-X, DE). The subjects were asked to walk 50 meters in two trials. Mean value and coefficient of variation of spatio-temporal gait parameters were calculated for each trial. Pressure distribution was analyzed in ten subregions of foot. All parameters were compared among the four groups using multi-level model-based statistical analysis. Results: Significant difference (p <0.05) with control was noticed for AO patients in maximum force in medial hindfoot and forefoot and in central forefoot. These differences were no longer significant in TAR and AD groups. Cadence and speed of all pathologic groups showed significant difference with control. Both treatments showed a significant improvement in double support and stance. TAR decreased variability in speed, stride length and knee ROM. Conclusions: In spite of a small sample size, this study showed that ankle function after AO treatments can be evaluated objectively based on plantar pressure and spatio-temporal gait parameters measured during unconstrained walking outside the lab. The combination of these two ambulatory techniques provides a promising way to evaluate foot function in clinics.