Risk based decision support system for effective implementation of projects

Conventional project management techniques are not always sufficient to ensure time, cost and quality achievement of large-scale construction projects due to complexity in planning, design and implementation processes. The main reasons for project non-achievement are changes in scope and design, changes in government policies and regulations, unforeseen inflation, underestimation and improper estimation. Projects that are exposed to such an uncertain environment can be effectively managed with the application of risk management throughout the project's life cycle. However, the effectiveness of risk management depends on the technique through which the effects of risk factors are analysed/quantified. This study proposes the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), a multiple attribute decision making technique, as a tool for risk analysis because it can handle subjective as well as objective factors in a decision model that are conflicting in nature. This provides a decision support system (DSS) to project management for making the right decision at the right time for ensuring project success in line with organisation policy, project objectives and a competitive business environment. The whole methodology is explained through a case application of a cross-country petroleum pipeline project in India and its effectiveness in project management is demonstrated.

Modulational instabilities in fibres with periodic dispersion

We analytically and numerically analyze the occurrence of modulational instability in fibers with periodic changes in the group-velocity dispersion. For small variations, a set of resonances occurs in the gain spectrum. However, large dispersion variations eliminate these resonances and restrict the bandwidth of the fundamental gain spectrum. This research has been motivated by the adoption of dispersion management techniques in long-haul optical communications.

Shareholder value application in UK listed companies

This paper is based upon the initial findings of a CIMA research project into the way in which corporate performance measurement systems are influenced by the use of shareholder value management techniques. It compares and contrasts the techniques in use in a sample of 10 companies that either explicitly use shareholder value techniques also known as Value-Based Management (VBM), or explicitly do not use such techniques. The analysis undertaken is based upon the finding of semi-structured interviews with company representatives which formed the first part of the data collection process of the project. The analysis traces the interactions between corporate objectives, decision making criteria, performance measurement systems and executive incentive schemes in order to develop an understanding of the effects of such shareholder value techniques upon corporate behaviour. The literature reviewed suggests that the other aspects of the planning and control system should be aligned with the corporate objectives whether a company has adopted VBM or not. Therefore this research contributes new evidence on the use of VBM techniques in the UK and also more generally on whether VBM and non-VBM companies internal planning and control systems are aligned.

Modulational instabilities in fibres with periodic dispersion

We analytically and numerically analyze the occurrence of modulational instability in fibers with periodic changes in the group-velocity dispersion. For small variations, a set of resonances occurs in the gain spectrum. However, large dispersion variations eliminate these resonances and restrict the bandwidth of the fundamental gain spectrum. This research has been motivated by the adoption of dispersion management techniques in long-haul optical communications.

Project financing 8th edition

The eighth edition is a fundamental and essential update to the seventh edition published in 2000. This new edition examines a comprehensive range of existing and newer topics that are relevant to project financing in 2012 and explores current trends in the project finance and leasing industries. Contributors are experienced academics and practitioners. Since the first edition was published, the financial markets have undergone tremendous upheavals and many new structures and instruments have been created to meet the financing needs of business. This edition considers the wider world of project finance, applicable to such diverse situations as venture capital and leveraged buyouts, and using new approaches such as Islamic finance techniques. The eighth edition is an essential and over-due update to the previous edition published in 2000. The eighth edition updates a comprehensive review of financial and related topics which are relevant to project financing in 2012 and explores current trends in financial modelling of a project, risk management and the private finance initiatives. This is a comprehensive and practical book full of advice and tips for successful project financing, including leasing, offering a clear, easy to understand guide to a complex area with examples. The topic coverage is well organized and complete moving from the fundamentals to the more complex issues. There is an extensive glossary to support readers. Finally the use of 12 practitioner case studies brings many of these complex issues to life. This is the new edition of the clear, easy-to-understand industry-standard text on project financing. With a good overview of a broad area and using principles of project financing to explain complex structures, this book includes lots of examples and case studies (including Eurotunnel, Dabhol, multiple Paiton deals and other recent deals along with subsequent developments) to show the concepts in use, examine outcomes and to ensure you understand important issues such as effective project structuring and financing, financial modelling for project valuation, and risk management. Substantially updated and expanded to provide the latest developments in all aspects of project financing. An important manual reference, this book is a must-have for every project financier's desk. The text unites the domain of project financing with a wealth of project management techniques, supported by diagrams and charts and other pictorial features, where appropriate. All these supporting features facilitate a better understanding of the accompanying text for the reader. In many chapters there are diagrams to clarify the specific transaction structure discussed in the accompanying text. These diagrams enable the reader to get a very clear idea of the transaction structure, which is particularly useful where it is complex or unusual. There are also a number of checklists to assist stakeholders in the project and resource management of complex project financings. The new financial modelling chapters allow exploration of some of the pitfalls project models encounter, challenging the accurate replication of the project cash flows for stakeholders to evaluate. In the later new risk management chapters, worked examples are included to illustrate the techniques in practice. The new public private partnership/private finance initiatives chapter introduces readers to this new approach to public projects. References are made to useful websites throughout the text. Cases are included at the end of the main text to encourage examination of real-life examples of project financing in practice and also highlight specific issues of current interest. The book will be helpful to project finance sponsors, lawyers, host governments, bankers and providers of capital

Process re-engineering for effective implementation of projects

Time, cost and quality are the prime objectives of any project. Unfortunately, today’s project management does not always ensure the realisation of these objectives. The main reasons of project non-achievement are changes in scope and design, changes in Government policies and regulations, unforeseen inflation, under-estimation and mis-estimation. An overall organisational approach with the application of appropriate management philosophies, tools and techniques can only solve the problem. The present study establishes a methodology for achieving success in implementing projects using a business process re-engineering (BPR) framework. Internal performance characteristics are introspected through condition diagnosis that identifies and prioritises areas of concern requiring attention. Process re-engineering emerges as a most critical area for immediate attention. Project process re-engineering is carried out by eliminating non-value added activities, taking up activities concurrently by applying information systems rigorously and applying risk management techniques throughout the project life cycle. The overall methodology is demonstrated through applications to cross country petroleum pipeline project organisation in an Indian scenario.

Vállalati magatartás és túlélési esélyek a posztszocialista átmenetgazdaságban (Corporate behaviour and chances of survival in a post-socialist transitional economy)

A tanulmányban paneladatokra támaszkodva vizsgáljuk a hazai feldolgozóipari vállalkozások középtávú túlélési esélyeit befolyásoló tényezőket. A kutatás során az 1993-ban mintába került cégekhez tértünk vissza 2000-ben. Az adatok szerint az ágazat, a létszám és a kapacitáskihasználtság mellett a vezetői magatartás és a vállalati stratégia is érdemben befolyásolta a vállalatok fennmaradási esélyeit. Azok a szervezetek, amelyekben a vezetők 1993-ban úgy vélekedtek, hogy a gazdaságban a normaszegő magatartás sikerre számíthat, az átlagosnál kisebb valószínűséggel maradtak életben az évtized végére. Azok a vállalatok, amelyeknek vezetői a vizsgálat elején sikeresnek tartották cégüket, illetve amelyek már 1993-ban is inkább megoldó jellegű válságmenedzselési eszközöket alkalmaztak, nagyobb arányban maradtak fenn, mint azok, amelyek halasztó jellegű eszközökkel próbáltak úrrá lenni a transzformációs visszaesés okozta krízisen. ________ The study uses panel data to examine the factor affected medium-term changes in the chances of survival among Hungarian manufacturing firms. The researchers revisited in 2000 firms surveyed in a 1993 sample. The figures show firms survival chances vary essentially not only by industry, size of labour force and utilization of capacity, but according to managerial behaviour and corporate strategy. Those whose managers be-lieved in 1993 that behaviour breaching accepted norms would succeed in the economy had a lower than average likelihood of surviving until the end of the decade. The survival rate was higher among those whose managers thought they would be successful or were already applying crisis-management techniques of a remedial nature in 1993, than among those using delaying tactics to tackle a crisis caused by the transformational recession.

Comparative reproductive biology of two Florida pawpaws Asimina reticulata Chapman and Asimina tetramera Small

I investigated the phenology and breeding systems of two Florida endemic pawpaws, Asimina reticulata, widespread in peninsular Florida, and A. tetramera, a federally endangered species limited to two counties on the Atlantic Coastal Ridge. The purpose of this study was to determine if differences contribute to the rarity of Asimina tetramera compared with A. reticulata. The study was conducted in sand pine scrub sites with the largest populations of A. tetramera in the two counties. Flowering seasons differ for the two species. Both species are hermaphroditic and strongly protogynous. Pollination experiments show that neither species is autogamous and the primary breeding mechanism is outcrossing, although low levels of geitonogamous pollination occur in mature scrub habitats. High levels of inbreeding depression were noted in both species at both sites but inbreeding depression was relaxed the first year post-fire. Fruit set in mature habitats may be pollinator limited. ^ I studied insects associated with the flowers in sand pine scrub habitat in southeastern Florida from 1994–1996. The most commonly represented orders were Coleoptera (25 spp.), Lepidoptera. (3 spp.) and Hymenoptera. (3 spp.). All Coleoptera. were flower visitors; one species, Euphoria sepulchralis (Fabricius)(Scarabeaidae), visited flowers of the two Asimina species at both sites. Eurytides marcellus (Cramer) (Lepidoptera: Papilionidae) eggs and larvae were observed on both species of Asimina during each year of the study. ^ Resource management techniques were applied to a mature sand pine scrub community in Jonathan Dickinson State Park in southeastern Florida for the management of Asimina tetramera. Manipulations conducted in 1996 included combinations of fire and mechanical treatments. I measured effects of these treatments on flowering and fruit set on A. tetramera and found cutting and burning was most effective in increasing flowering, followed by burning. Mechanical cutting and mulching had no significant effect. ^

Application of intervention analysis to evaluate the impacts of special events on freeways

In China in particular, large, planned special events (e.g., the Olympic Games, etc.) are viewed as great opportunities for economic development. Large numbers of visitors from other countries and provinces may be expected to attend such events, bringing in significant tourism dollars. However, as a direct result of such events, the transportation system is likely to face great challenges as travel demand increases beyond its original design capacity. Special events in central business districts (CBD) in particular will further exacerbate traffic congestion on surrounding freeway segments near event locations. To manage the transportation system, it is necessary to plan and prepare for such special events, which requires prediction of traffic conditions during the events. This dissertation presents a set of novel prototype models to forecast traffic volumes along freeway segments during special events. Almost all research to date has focused solely on traffic management techniques under special event conditions. These studies, at most, provided a qualitative analysis and there was a lack of an easy-to-implement method for quantitative analyses. This dissertation presents a systematic approach, based separately on univariate time series model with intervention analysis and multivariate time series model with intervention analysis for forecasting traffic volumes on freeway segments near an event location. A case study was carried out, which involved analyzing and modelling the historical time series data collected from loop-detector traffic monitoring stations on the Second and Third Ring Roads near Beijing Workers Stadium. The proposed time series models, with expected intervention, are found to provide reasonably accurate forecasts of traffic pattern changes efficiently. They may be used to support transportation planning and management for special events.

Marketing A Hospitality Program And Its Product

In his dialogue entitled - Marketing A Hospitality Program and Its Product - Jürgen Chopard, Dr. es Sciences (Economics) Director, Centre International de Glion, Glion, Switzerland, Dr. Chopard initially offers: “The recruitment of qualified personnel is extremely difficult in an industry with a poor image; where career paths are not well defined. The author discusses the employment of marketing management techniques to improve the positioning of hospitality education and create a more attractive perception of the hotel industry.” As outlined in the above paragraph, Dr. Chopard vectors-in on marketing strategies from two standpoints; the educational side with its focus on curriculum, and the larger, industry side with its emphasis on public perception and service. These are not necessarily, nor should they be viewed as disparate elements. “ Although some professionals may see schools of hospitality education catering to two markets, students on one hand and industry on the other, in fact, their needs should be viewed as the same and hence a single market,” Dr. Chopard says to bolster his assertion. “The marketing concept is a management orientation that holds that the key task of the organization is to determine the needs and wants of target markets and to adapt the organization to delivering the desired satisfactions more effectively and efficiently than its competitor,” the author confides, with an attribution. From these information/definition leanings, Dr. Chopard continues on a path that promotes the Centre International de Glion, Glion, Switzerland, which he is affiliated with. Why, because they endorse the same principles he is explaining to you. That’s not a bad thing. Essentially, what Dr. Chopard wants you to know is, education and business management are synonymous and therefore should share the same marketing designs and goals. “It is hard to believe that as critically important a sector as education does not use for its own management the techniques which it teaches and which have largely been proved in other fields,” the author provides as counterpoint. Since pedagogical needs so closely relate to the more pragmatic needs of the industry in general, these elements should seek to compliment and engage each other, in fact, collaboration is imperative, Dr. Chopard expresses a priori. “The cooperation of future employers is indispensable in the preparation of the product, so that it is capable of providing the expected services. The need for close relations between training establishments and the hotel and catering industry seems obvious,” Dr. Chopard says. The author reveals some flaws in hospitality marketing strategy, and then contrasts these against how a successful strategy could/should be implemented.

Food Service Operations in the Cruise Industry

Food service on a cruise ship presents some unique challenges. A review of food service in the cruise industry is presented along with some ideas on the future. The case is made for a change in traditional operations with a move toward greater use of computer-driven management techniques.

Managing Risk: Identifying and Controlling Losses and Assuming Risks From Perils

Financial survival in the hotel and restaurant business can depend upon a mastery of the basic principles of risk management. This article explains the series of steps leading to the successful implementation of the risk management techniques most appropriate for a given hotel or restaurant.

Application of Intervention Analysis to Evaluate the Impacts of Special Events on Freeways

In China in particular, large, planned special events (e.g., the Olympic Games, etc.) are viewed as great opportunities for economic development. Large numbers of visitors from other countries and provinces may be expected to attend such events, bringing in significant tourism dollars. However, as a direct result of such events, the transportation system is likely to face great challenges as travel demand increases beyond its original design capacity. Special events in central business districts (CBD) in particular will further exacerbate traffic congestion on surrounding freeway segments near event locations. To manage the transportation system, it is necessary to plan and prepare for such special events, which requires prediction of traffic conditions during the events. This dissertation presents a set of novel prototype models to forecast traffic volumes along freeway segments during special events. Almost all research to date has focused solely on traffic management techniques under special event conditions. These studies, at most, provided a qualitative analysis and there was a lack of an easy-to-implement method for quantitative analyses. This dissertation presents a systematic approach, based separately on univariate time series model with intervention analysis and multivariate time series model with intervention analysis for forecasting traffic volumes on freeway segments near an event location. A case study was carried out, which involved analyzing and modelling the historical time series data collected from loop-detector traffic monitoring stations on the Second and Third Ring Roads near Beijing Workers Stadium. The proposed time series models, with expected intervention, are found to provide reasonably accurate forecasts of traffic pattern changes efficiently. They may be used to support transportation planning and management for special events.

Sedação consciente em Odontopediatria

O medo e a ansiedade estão estreitamente relacionados com o tratamento dentário e, infelizmente, na população infantil este facto assume uma magnitude aumentada traduzindo-se muitas vezes de forma negativa no comportamento da criança comprometendo ou mesmo inviabilizando a execução do mesmo. O tratamento dentário de pacientes pediátricos com problemas comportamentais pode ser um verdadeiro desafio para o médico dentista e as tradicionais técnicas de controlo comportamental não farmacológicas nem sempre são suficientes para conseguir a cooperação da criança pelo que, em muitos casos, é necessária a associação dos mesmos a técnicas farmacológicas. A sedação consciente é utilizada em odontopediatria como uma técnica de controlo comportamental farmacológica, que visa induzir na criança, um estado mínimo de depressão da consciência, tornando-a passível de cooperar e viabilizando que os tratamentos necessários sejam efectuados com segurança. Existem inúmeros fármacos, técnicas e associações das mesmas que podem ser utilizadas para o efeito sendo que actualmente, em odontopediatria, predomina a prática da sedação consciente inalatória com protóxido de azoto e a utilização de benzodiazepinas como o midazolam. Apesar das muitas técnicas descritas, nenhuma delas é passível de ser administrada a todos os pacientes, pelo para cada caso, tendo em conta todas as particularidades, haverá uma técnica mais adequada. Apesar prática da sedação consciente ser uma mais-valia em odontopediatria, não é isenta de riscos e o médico dentista deve ter formação adequada para a providenciar de forma segura. Diferentes entidades publicaram guidelines que visam orientar a prática segura da sedação e minimizar o risco de incidentes.

Abordagem de pacientes autistas em Odontopediatria

O autismo é uma condição que faz parte de um grupo de perturbações do desenvolvimento global das funções cerebrais e que, por regra, é diagnosticada no início da infância. A dificuldade na linguagem e comunicação, o défice na interação social, as esteriotipias e os interesses específicos e comportamentos repetitivos caracterizam os indivíduos portadores desta patologia. A saúde oral das crianças autistas é geralmente precária e as necessidades de tratamento dentário elevadas. No entanto, os problemas comportamentais destes doentes fazem com que os pais não recorram às consultas de medicina dentária, outras vezes quando recorrem à consulta as dificuldades de colaboração impedem a prestação de cuidados de saúde oral adequados a estas crianças. Pretendeu-se assim, com este trabalho, realizar uma revisão sistemática de literatura científica, publicada nos últimos 15 anos, acerca dos problemas orais que atingem os pacientes autistas, e simultaneamente, compilar diretrizes de atuação clínica para orientar o médico dentista no atendimento destes doentes. Para isto, durante os meses de Outubro de 2014 a Outubro de 2015, procedeu-se a uma pesquisa bibliográfica nas bases de dados PubMed e B-on, sendo consultados também outros bancos de dados como LILACS – BIREME, SciELO, utilizando as seguintes palavras-chave: “autism”, “pediatric dentistry”, “Asperger Syndrome”, “Rett Syndrome”, “Childhood Disintegrative Disorder”, “prevalence”, “neurobiology”, “etiology”, “diagnosis”, “diagnostic criteria”, “comorbidity”, “oral health”, “dental caries”, “periodontal disease”, “oral habits”, “bruxism”, “self-injury”, “dental trauma”, “dental injury”, “malocclusion”, “behavior management techniques” separadas ou associadas pelo operador de pesquisa booleano AND. Na pesquisa foram empregues os seguintes limites: artigos publicados nos últimos 15 anos, abstract disponível, estudos em humanos e artigos e língua inglesa, francesa, portuguesa e espanhola. Desta pesquisa resultou um total de 150 artigos que foram selecionados primeiramente pelos títulos, seguidamente pela leitura dos abstracts e, finalmente, do artigo por inteiro, obtendo-se assim 95 artigos, para revisão. Foram ainda considerados artigos de referência publicados em anos anteriores, livros de texto médicos e publicações portuguesas com dados epidemiológicos sobre as Perturbações do Espetro do Autismo em Portugal. As doenças orais encontradas nas crianças autistas são semelhantes às das crianças sem qualquer perturbação mental, contudo a preferência por alimentos cariogénicos, a diminuição do fluxo salivar induzida pelos fármacos, associadas a uma pobre higiene oral, justificam uma maior prevalência de cárie. As doenças periodontais, também muito prevalentes neste grupo, desenvolvem-se em virtude da combinação da falta de hábitos de higiene oral, com os efeitos secundários de fármacos administrados a estes doentes, como os anticonvulsivantes. No seu atendimento na consulta dentária recorre-se às mesmas estratégias de orientação de comportamento aplicadas nas crianças saudáveis, para contornar os sentimentos de medo, ansiedade, desconfiança e a incapacidade de interação social, e assim evitar comportamentos de recusa durante a consulta dentária. É no entanto de salientar que os distúrbios comportamentais, o défice da comunicação e a falta de capacidades de interação social, caraterísticas do autismo impossibilitam a eficácia das técnicas de controlo do comportamento comunicativas, obrigando, muitas vezes, ao uso de técnicas de controlo de comportamento avançadas para prestação de cuidados de saúde oral com eficácia e em segurança. É importante uma grande motivação de pais/responsáveis para a saúde e higiene oral das crianças com Perturbações do Espetro do Autismo, e que todos os profissionais de saúde envolvidos no cuidado destes doentes contribuam para a aprendizagem de comportamentos que promovam a saúde oral destes doentes.