788 resultados para Low-risk gestational trophoblastic neoplasia
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Urinary incontinence is a common problem, affecting one third of the women at least at some time during their lives. The prevalence of urinary incontinence increases with advancing age, and the everyday impact of incontinence on women and on health services is enormous. Urinary incontinence is usually divided into three different subtypes, of which stress urinary incontinence (SUI) is the most common. Surgical treatment is often needed to cure SUI, and modern mid-urethral sling procedures give the possibility to cure this condition with a low risk of adverse events, a problem often associated with the so-called traditional incontinence operations. Life expectancy among women in Western countries has grown beyond 80 years of age. Long-term efficacy of treatment options for urinary incontinence therefore becomes an important issue in a world with limited eco-nomic resources. The purpose of the present study was to prospectively evaluate the long-term efficacy and safety of the first minimally invasive mid-urethral tape procedure, the Tension-free Vaginal Tape (TVT) procedure. The long-term (5-year) follow-up results of the TVT procedure as a repeat operation af-ter an unsuccessful mid-urethral tape operation were studied and the reasons for failure of the first operation were analyzed. Another purpose was to compare the original TVT procedure with a newer modification, the Tension-free Vaginal Tape Obturator (TVT-O) procedure within a multi-centre, randomized context in order to find out possible differences between these procedures re-garding efficacy and complications and the effects on symptoms of urgency. The first study of the present thesis is a prospective, Nordic, three-centre follow-up study of 90 women suffering from SUI, who were treated by means of the TVT procedure. The mean follow-up time was more than eleven years, and the study is the first to be published in connection with more than ten years of follow-up. The second study is a retrospective analysis of 26 women who were treated with a repeat TVT procedure after an unsuccessful primary mid-urethral tape procedure. The third and fourth studies concern 273 women in seven centres in Finland who were ran-domly assigned to the TVT and TVT-O procedures, the 3-year follow-up results of which are pre-sented in this thesis. After eleven years of follow-up, 90% of the women had a negative cough stress test result and a negative 24-h pad test result. The subjective cure rate measured as the women s global impression of cure was 77%, the rate of improvement 20%, and only 3% thought that the treatment had failed. No late-onset adverse effects were found. The repeat TVT procedure was successful in 75% of the cases when women who were cured and women who were significantly improved were included. The reasons for failure of the first operation could be separated into four different groups: tape material-related, operation technique-related, concomitant illness-related and a group with no identifiable reason. There were no intra-operative complications during the repeat operation. In the randomized trial comparing the TVT with the TVT-O procedure a cough stress test results were negative in 94.6% and 89.5% of the women in the two groups, respectively, after a 3-year follow-up period. There were no statistical differences in the cure rate or the rate of complications be-tween the two procedures. Symptoms of urgency were analyzed more closely and the main finding was that the prevalence of urgency symptoms decreased significantly after both mid-urethral sling procedures. The TVT operation was found to be an effective and safe procedure even after eleven years of follow-up. Long-term follow-up after a repeat TVT procedure revealed that the TVT procedure can well be considered after an unsuccessful mid-urethra tape procedure, because 75% of the patients showed significantly improvement of their incontinence. The TVT and TVT-O procedures showed no statistically significant differences in efficacy and rate of complications after three years of follow-up. In most cases these procedures alleviate preoperative symptoms of urgency and the risk of developing de novo urgency is low.
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Glioblastoma (GBM) is the most common and aggressive primary brain tumor with very poor patient median survival. To identify a microRNA (miRNA) expression signature that can predict GBM patient survival, we analyzed the miRNA expression data of GBM patients (n = 222) derived from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) dataset. We divided the patients randomly into training and testing sets with equal number in each group. We identified 10 significant miRNAs using Cox regression analysis on the training set and formulated a risk score based on the expression signature of these miRNAs that segregated the patients into high and low risk groups with significantly different survival times (hazard ratio HR] = 2.4; 95% CI = 1.4-3.8; p < 0.0001). Of these 10 miRNAs, 7 were found to be risky miRNAs and 3 were found to be protective. This signature was independently validated in the testing set (HR = 1.7; 95% CI = 1.1-2.8; p = 0.002). GBM patients with high risk scores had overall poor survival compared to the patients with low risk scores. Overall survival among the entire patient set was 35.0% at 2 years, 21.5% at 3 years, 18.5% at 4 years and 11.8% at 5 years in the low risk group, versus 11.0%, 5.5%, 0.0 and 0.0% respectively in the high risk group (HR = 2.0; 95% CI = 1.4-2.8; p < 0.0001). Cox multivariate analysis with patient age as a covariate on the entire patient set identified risk score based on the 10 miRNA expression signature to be an independent predictor of patient survival (HR = 1.120; 95% CI = 1.04-1.20; p = 0.003). Thus we have identified a miRNA expression signature that can predict GBM patient survival. These findings may have implications in the understanding of gliomagenesis, development of targeted therapy and selection of high risk cancer patients for adjuvant therapy.
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We address the problem of pricing defaultable bonds in a Markov modulated market. Using Merton's structural approach we show that various types of defaultable bonds are combination of European type contingent claims. Thus pricing a defaultable bond is tantamount to pricing a contingent claim in a Markov modulated market. Since the market is incomplete, we use the method of quadratic hedging and minimal martingale measure to derive locally risk minimizing derivative prices, hedging strategies and the corresponding residual risks. The price of defaultable bonds are obtained as solutions to a system of PDEs with weak coupling subject to appropriate terminal and boundary conditions. We solve the system of PDEs numerically and carry out a numerical investigation for the defaultable bond prices. We compare their credit spreads with some of the existing models. We observe higher spreads in the Markov modulated market. We show how business cycles can be easily incorporated in the proposed framework. We demonstrate the impact on spreads of the inclusion of rare states that attempt to capture a tight liquidity situation. These states are characterized by low risk-free interest rate, high payout rate and high volatility.
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Glioblastoma (GBM) is the most common, malignant adult primary tumor with dismal patient survival, yet the molecular determinants of patient survival are poorly characterized. Global methylation profile of GBM samples (our cohort; n = 44) using high-resolution methylation microarrays was carried out. Cox regression analysis identified a 9-gene methylation signature that predicted survival in GBM patients. A risk-score derived from methylation signature predicted survival in univariate analysis in our and The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) cohort. Multivariate analysis identified methylation risk score as an independent survival predictor in TCGA cohort. Methylation risk score stratified the patients into low-risk and high-risk groups with significant survival difference. Network analysis revealed an activated NF-kappa B pathway association with high-risk group. NF-kappa B inhibition reversed glioma chemoresistance, and RNA interference studies identified interleukin-6 and intercellular adhesion molecule-1 as key NF-kappa B targets in imparting chemoresistance. Promoter hypermethylation of neuronal pentraxin II (NPTX2), a risky methylated gene, was confirmed by bisulfite sequencing in GBMs. GBMs and glioma cell lines had low levels of NPTX2 transcripts, which could be reversed upon methylation inhibitor treatment. NPTX2 overexpression induced apoptosis, inhibited proliferation and anchorage-independent growth, and rendered glioma cells chemosensitive. Furthermore, NPTX2 repressed NF-kappa B activity by inhibiting AKT through a p53-PTEN-dependent pathway, thus explaining the hypermethylation and downregulation of NPTX2 in NF-kappa B-activated high-risk GBMs. Taken together, a 9-gene methylation signature was identified as an independent GBM prognosticator and could be used for GBM risk stratification. Prosurvival NF-kappa B pathway activation characterized high-risk patients with poor prognosis, indicating it to be a therapeutic target. (C) 2013 AACR.
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Predation risk can strongly constrain how individuals use time and space. Grouping is known to reduce an individual's time investment in costly antipredator behaviours. Whether grouping might similarly provide a spatial release from antipredator behaviour and allow individuals to use risky habitat more and, thus, improve their access to resources is poorly known. We used mosquito larvae, Aedes aegypti, to test the hypothesis that grouping facilitates the use of high-risk habitat. We provided two habitats, one darker, low-risk and one lighter, high-risk, and measured the relative time spent in the latter by solitary larvae versus larvae in small groups. We tested larvae reared under different resource levels, and thus presumed to vary in body condition, because condition is known to influence risk taking. We also varied the degree of contrast in habitat structure. We predicted that individuals in groups should use high-risk habitat more than solitary individuals allowing for influences of body condition and contrast in habitat structure. Grouping strongly influenced the time spent in the high-risk habitat, but, contrary to our expectation, individuals in groups spent less time in the high-risk habitat than solitary individuals. Furthermore, solitary individuals considerably increased the proportion of time spent in the high-risk habitat over time, whereas individuals in groups did not. Both solitary individuals and those in groups showed a small increase over time in their use of riskier locations within each habitat. The differences between solitary individuals and those in groups held across all resource and contrast conditions. Grouping may, thus, carry a poorly understood cost of constraining habitat use. This cost may arise because movement traits important for maintaining group cohesion (a result of strong selection on grouping) can act to exaggerate an individual preference for low-risk habitat. Further research is needed to examine the interplay between grouping, individual movement and habitat use traits in environments heterogeneous in risk and resources. (C) 2015 The Association for the Study of Animal Behaviour. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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13 P.
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The cod stock in the Western Baltic Sea is assessed to be overfished regarding the definitions of the UN World Summit on Sustainable Development at Johannesburg in 2002. Thus, the European Fisheries Council enforced a multi-annual management plan in 2007. Our medium term simulations over the future 10 years assume similar stock productivity as compared with the past four decades and indicate that the goals of the management plan can be achieved through TAC and consistent effort regulations. Taking account of the uncertainty in the recruitment patterns, the target average fishing mortality of age groups 3 – 6 years of F = 0.6 per year as defined in the management plan is indicated to exceed sustainable levels consistent with high long term yields and low risk of depletion. The stipulated constraint of the annual TAC variations of ±15% will dominate future fisheries management and implies a high recovery potential of the stock through continued reductions in fishing mortality. The scientific assessment of sustainable levels of exploitation and consideration in the plan is strongly advised, taking account of uncertainties attributed to environmental and biological effects. We recommend our study to be complemented with economic impact assessments including effects on by-catch species, which have been disregarded in this study. It is further demonstrated, that the goals of the management plan can alternatively be achieved by mesh size adaptations. An alternative technical option of mesh size increases to realize the required reductions in fishing mortality provides avoidance of discards of undersized fish after a few years by means of improved selectivity, another important element of the Common Fisheries Policy. However, it is emphasized that technical regulations since 1990 failed to affect the by-catch and discards of juvenile cod. In any way, the meaningful implementation of the multiannual management plan through stringent control and enforcement appears critical.
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Trata-se de um estudo de Avaliação Econômica Parcial cujo objeto é os custos diretos do protocolo assistencial da Casa de Parto David Capistrano Filho/RJ. O objetivo geral é realizar analise dos custos diretos assistenciais destinados ao ciclo gravídico puerperal na Casa de Parto David Capistrano Filho (CPDCF), situada no município do Rio de Janeiro. Os objetivos específicos deste estudo são: estimar o tipo e a quantidade dos recursos consumidos na execução do cuidado ao ciclo gravídico puerperal de acordo com o protocolo assistencial da CPDCF; analisar os custos diretos relacionados ao protocolo assistencial da CPDCF; comparar os custos avaliados no período da pesquisa ao orçamento municipal destinado a assistência das gestantes de baixo risco no mesmo período. O método utilizado foi a Avaliação de Economia em Saúde, a perspectiva adotada foi o Sistema Único de Saúde (SUS) como órgão gestor, foram avaliados os prontuário das gestantes que realizaram o pré-natal na CPDCF no ano de 2010, excluindo destes as que não pariram na unidade, computando um total de 161 prontuários. Na análise foi realizada a descrição dos custos diretos envolvidos na assistência ao ciclo gravídico puerperal, para isso, foram relacionados e contados os recursos utilizados, definidos como unidades de custo, para a assistência na CPDCF durante o pré-natal, trabalho de parto/parto e pós-parto, e posteriormente esses recursos foram valorados de acordo com as tabelas do Sistema de Gerência da Tabela de Procedimentos (SIGTAP), Medicamentos, Próteses e Materiais Especiais do Sistema Único de Saúde/Ministério da Saúde do Banco de Preços em Saúde (BPS) e da Secretaria Municipal de Saúde Defesa Civil/Rio de Janeiro (SMSDC/RJ). Os resultados apontaram que o custo do pré-natal por gestante foi de R$ 271,91, com prevalência de custos para os exames realizados no pré-natal. Em relação ao trabalho de parto e parto, os custos foram de R$ 352,50 por gestante, neste item os maiores custos foram com os recursos humanos. A pesquisa demonstrou que a CPDCF apresentou menor valor que o orçamento municipal destinado para o parto de acordo com a tabela do SIGTAP (R$ 443,40 a R$ 475,16). Apesar desses dados, e de acordo com o relato das diretoras, a CPDCF é ociosa, e esta influência pode ser negativa para os custos do parto. Em relação ao pós-parto foi avaliado o custo por binômio com uma média de custo de R$ 269,94, os maiores custos de pós-parto foram com os recursos humanos. O custo geral da assistência na CPDCF foi de R$ 894,36 por gestante, desse valor, 39,42% correspondeu aos custos com o parto, 30,40% correspondeu ao custo com o pré-natal e 30,18% com a assistência pós-natal. Para afirmar a eficiência e eficácia das ações na CPDCF, é preciso a realização de uma avaliação de economia em saúde completa; o trabalho de parto/parto foram os que mais representaram os custos; o custo do parto é menor que o valor orçado para o parto de baixo risco, mas medidas de ação sobre a ociosidade são necessárias, pois esta pode influenciar nos custos do parto.
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Hipertensos têm rarefação capilar e disfunção endotelial microcirculatória, tornando-se mais vulneráveis a lesões em órgãos-alvo. O estudo buscou avaliar o efeito de seis meses de tratamento farmacológico sobre densidade capilar e reatividade microvascular a estímulos fisiológicos e farmacológicos em hipertensos de baixo risco cardiovascular. Secundariamente testou-se a existência de diversidade nas respostas a diferentes estratégias anti-hipertensivas. Foram recrutados 44 pacientes, com 46,71,3 anos e 20 normotensos com 48,01,6 anos. Avaliaram-se dados antropométricos e laboratoriais e dosaram-se no soro o fator de crescimento vascular endotelial (VEGF), receptor Flt-1 para VEGF e óxido nítrico (NO). A contagem capilar foi por microscopia intravital, captando-se imagens da microcirculação no dorso da falange do dedo médio e contando os capilares com programa específico. Repetia-se o procedimento após hiperemia reativa pós-oclusiva (HRPO) para avaliar o recrutamento capilar. A reatividade vascular foi testada por fluxometria Laser Doppler, iontoforese de acetilcolina (Ach), HRPO e hiperemia térmica local (HTL). Os pacientes foram distribuídos aleatoriamente para dois grupos de tratamento: succinato de metoprolol titulado a 100 mg diários ou olmesartana medoxomila titulada a 40 mg diários, empregando-se, se necessário, a hidroclorotiazida. Os controles seguiram o mesmo protocolo inicial e após seis meses todos os testes foram repetidos nos hipertensos. As variáveis clínicas e laboratoriais basais eram semelhantes em comparação aos controles e entre os dois grupos de tratamento. Após seis meses, havia pequenas diferenças entre os grupos na relação cintura-quadril e HDL. A densidade capilar antes do tratamento era significativamente menor que no grupo controle (71,31,5 vs 80,61,8 cap/mm2 p<0,001 e HRPO 71,71,5 vs 79,52,6 cap/mm2 p<0,05) e, com o tratamento, aumentou para 75,41,1 cap/mm2 (p<0,01) no estado basal e para 76,81,1 cap/mm2 à HRPO (p<0,05). À reatividade vascular, a condutância vascular cutânea (CVC) em unidades de perfusão (UP)/mmHg era similar à HTL nos controles e hipertensos e aumentou com o tratamento nos dois subgrupos (metoprolol:1,730,2 a 1,900,2 p<0,001 e olmesartana:1,490,1 a 1,870,1 p<0,001). A CVC máxima à HRPO era menor nos hipertensos: 0,30(0,22-0,39) que nos controles: 0,39(0,31-0,49) com p<0,001. Após tratamento, aumentou para 0,41(0,29-0,51) com p<0,001. O aumento foi significativo apenas no grupo olmesartana (0,290,02 a 0,420,04 p<0,001). A diferença entre o tempo para atingir o fluxo máximo à HRPO aumentou no grupo metoprolol após tratamento 3,0 (-0,3 a 8,8) segundos versus olmesartana 0,4 (-2,1 a 2,4) segundos p<0,001. À iontoforese, a área sob a curva de fluxo (AUC) era similar nos grupos e aumentou com o tratamento, de 6087(3857-9137) para 7296(5577-10921) UP/s p=0,04. O VEGF e receptor não diferiam dos controles nem sofreram variações. A concentração de NO era maior nos hipertensos que nos controles: 64,9 (46,8-117,6) vs 50,7 (42-57,5) M/dl p=0,02 e não variou com tratamento. Em conclusão, hipertensos de baixo risco têm menor densidade e menor recrutamento capilar e ambos aumentam com tratamento. Apresentam também disfunção endotelial microcirculatória que melhora com a terapia.
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A presente pesquisa aborda a temática da assistência ao parto hospitalar na Região Médio-Paraíba, considerando a política pública de humanização do parto e nascimento A medicalização do parto e nascimento vem ocorrendo em todo o mundo. Mesmo em países desenvolvidos, a grande maioria dos partos vaginais e de baixo risco ainda é conduzida com práticas intervencionistas sem evidências científicas de sua eficácia. Em contraposição a este modelo assistencial implantou-se a política de humanização do parto e nascimento. A enfermeira obstétrica tem sido elemento importante para a consolidação do uso de práticas consideradas humanizadas na assistência ao parto de baixo risco em ambiente hospitalar. O objeto deste estudo foi o emprego de tecnologias não invasivas de cuidado de enfermagem em partos acompanhados por enfermeiras obstétricas na Associação de Proteção a Maternidade e à Infância de Resende/RJ (APMIR). Os objetivos foram: identificar as tecnologias não invasivas de cuidado de enfermagem obstétrica (TNICE) usualmente empregadas por enfermeiras obstétricas no cuidado a parturientes; discutir o emprego dessas TNICE por enfermeiras obstétricas no cuidado a parturientes sob a perspectiva da humanização do parto e nascimento; caracterizar o processo de implementação das TNICE na assistência ao parto na maternidade. Trata-se de pesquisa descritiva, quantitativa desenvolvida em uma maternidade filantrópica da região sul-fluminense que pertence ao Médio-Paraíba, na qual enfermeiras obstétricas estão incluídas na equipe de acompanhamento do parto. Foram analisados os registros correspondentes aos partos acompanhados por enfermeiras obstétricas compreendendo o período de Novembro de 2012 à Julho de 2013. Houve registro de 84 partos neste período. Os dados foram obtidos através de Livro de Registros de Parto do serviço. Os registros foram feitos em formulário próprio implantado a partir da pesquisa. O projeto foi submetido à apreciação do Comitê de Ética em Pesquisa do Centro Universitário de Barra Mansa, tendo sido aprovado segundo parecer número 347.254 de 30/07/2013. Os dados foram analisados por procedimentos estatísticos descritivos. Os resultados apontaram que a atuação da enfermeira obstétrica no cuidado à mulher em trabalho de parto caracteriza-se por medidas que promovem a autonomia da mulher no cenário onde ela é protagonista marcando assim a forte presença dessas profissionais neste cenário onde a existência de práticas intervencionistas é significante e muito presente. O estudo concluiu que o cuidado de enfermagem obstétrica pautado sobre as tecnologias não invasivas de cuidado favorece uma assistência humanizada ao parto. Acredita-se que para um cuidado no transcorrer fisiológico do parto é necessário estabelecer uma relação de intimidade, de interação e de empatia com cada mulher dentro do seu contexto, dando a ela encorajamento para tomar posse daquilo que compete somente a ela.
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O objetivo deste estudo é discutir a associação entre padrão de consumo de álcool e dimensões de risco à exposição ao HIV, desdobradas em conhecimento sobre HIV e práticas sexuais entre universitários. Trata-se de uma pesquisa transversal com abordagem quantitativa, realizada com 416 universitários de 14 cursos distintos. Os dados foram coletados através de dois instrumentos e tratados através de estatística descritiva com o software SPSS 21.0. A pesquisa foi autorizada pelo Comitê de Ética em Pesquisa da Universidade do Estado do Rio de Janeiro, sob n 003.3.2012. A população de estudo é predominantemente do sexo masculino (59,6%), com faixa etária entre 19 a 22 anos (54,3%), de cor branca (57,5%), sem companheiros (69,2%) ou filhos (92,3%) e com maior percentual de católicos (31,3%) e daqueles que não possuem religião (33,7%). Destaca-se, ainda, que são possuidores de computador ou eletrônicos portáteis (98,8%) com fácil acesso à internet (96,8%). Os principais achados apontam que a maioria faz uso de álcool (60%), com a proporção de 7 homens para cada 3 mulheres. Relacionado ao AUDIT, foi identificado predomínio das zonas I (abstinência ou baixo risco-73,8%) e II (uso nocivo-20,4%). Sobre as relações sexuais, a maioria afirmou ter experiência sexual (69,5%), com idade da primeira relação entre 16 e 18 anos (54%), no entanto, mais homens (54,3%) afirmaram manter relações sexuais após o consumo de álcool do que mulheres (45,7%). Apesar do conhecimento sobre HIV/aids e álcool ser considerado como fator protetor pela literatura vigente, constatou-se que não há associação deste conhecimento com a prática sexual mais segura. Independente do padrão de consumo de bebidas alcoólicas, os universitários apresentam o mesmo tipo de prática sexual, muitas vezes se expondo à infecção ao HIV e outras doenças sexualmente transmissíveis. Dentre os dados analisados, um dos motivos de exposição ao HIV/Aids são as relações sexuais após a ingestão de bebida alcoólicas e o não uso de preservativos nestas situações. O consumo exagerado de bebidas alcoólicas está ligado ao sexo masculino e este grupo apresenta práticas sexuais de maior risco. Sugere-se que novos estudos possam analisar a relação de causa e efeito para verificar quais fatores podem influenciar de fato a exposição ao HIV de estudantes usuários de álcool. Estas informações são relevantes para conhecermos a atual demanda desse grupo e focar nas reais necessidades que são imperiosas para a prevenção dos futuros danos nocivos à saúde individual e coletiva. Torna-se necessário compreender qual é a demanda dos jovens em se expor a diversos riscos à saúde adotando práticas não seguras e, principalmente, o que de fato modula estas condutas.
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O objetivo da presente dissertação foi realizar uma revisão sistemática para investigar os efeitos do uso de biomateriais no tratamento de defeitos ósseos periodontais por meio de abordagens cirúrgicas minimamente invasivas sobre os parâmetros clínicos periodontais. Foi realizada uma busca por ensaios randomizados controlados publicados entre os anos de 1995 e 2013 nas bases MEDLINE, EMBASE, CENTRAL, BVS, CLINICALTRIALS.gov, abstracts da International Association for Dental Research (IADR) e busca manual por possíveis estudos a serem incluídos. Foram localizados 541 estudos, sendo 12 selecionados para avaliação da elegibilidade e 5 estudos incluídos para análise qualitativa. Após aplicação de um instrumento para análise do viés associado, demonstrou-se um baixo risco de viés associado à maioria dos estudos incluídos. Nos resultados dos estudos incluídos foi possível observar que embora bem-sucedida, a associação de diferentes biomateriais às técnicas minimamente invasivas não trouxe benefício adicional aos parâmetros clínicos avaliados.
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Macrobrachiurn rosenbergii is one of the widely cultured freshwater prawn species globally. India was the third largest producer of this species in 2007 and its aquaculture production rose to 43,000 metric tons (t) in 2005 froin less than 500 t in 1995. However, since then production has been declining and in 2008-09 it was 12,856 t, a reduction of more than 70% compared to 2005. There are several contributing factors to this decline, such as slow growth rate, poor survival, disease outbreaks, increase in cost of production, and availability of low risk alternative fish species. However, there is a consensus that poor seed quality leading to unsatisfactory growth and survival rates in ponds is one of the major reasons. Hence, the development of a systematic selective breeding program aimed at improving growth rate and ensuring high survival rate of this species was deemed a high priority. The Central Institute of Freshwater Aquaculture (CIFA), Bhubaneswar, India in collaboration with the WorldFish Center, Malaysia initiated a selective breeding program for this species in 2007.
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Atlantic Croaker (Micropogonias undulatus) production dynamics along the U.S. Atlantic coast are regulated by fishing and winter water temperature. Stakeholders for this resource have recommended investigating the effects of climate covariates in assessment models. This study used state-space biomass dynamic models without (model 1) and with (model 2) the minimum winter estuarine temperature (MWET) to examine MWET effects on Atlantic Croaker population dynamics during 1972–2008. In model 2, MWET was introduced into the intrinsic rate of population increase (r). For both models, a prior probability distribution (prior) was constructed for r or a scaling parameter (r0); imputs were the fishery removals, and fall biomass indices developed by using data from the Multispecies Bottom Trawl Survey of the Northeast Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, and the Coastal Trawl Survey of the Southeast Area Monitoring and Assessment Program. Model sensitivity runs incorporated a uniform (0.01,1.5) prior for r or r0 and bycatch data from the shrimp-trawl fishery. All model variants produced similar results and therefore supported the conclusion of low risk of overfishing for the Atlantic Croaker stock in the 2000s. However, the data statistically supported only model 1 and its configuration that included the shrimp-trawl fishery bycatch. The process errors of these models showed slightly positive and significant correlations with MWET, indicating that warmer winters would enhance Atlantic Croaker biomass production. Inconclusive, somewhat conflicting results indicate that biomass dynamic models should not integrate MWET, pending, perhaps, accumulation of longer time series of the variables controlling the production dynamics of Atlantic Croaker, preferably including winter-induced estimates of Atlantic Croaker kills.
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This report argues for greatly increased resources in terms of data collection facilities and staff to collect, process, and analyze the data, and to communicate the results, in order for NMFS to fulfill its mandate to conserve and manage marine resources. In fact, the authors of this report had great difficulty defining the "ideal" situation to which fisheries stock assessments and management should aspire. One of the primary objectives of fisheries management is to develop sustainable harvest policies that minimize the risks of overfishing both target species and associated species. This can be achieved in a wide spectrum of ways, ranging between the following two extremes. The first is to implement only simple management measures with correspondingly simple assessment demands, which will usually mean setting fishing mortality targets at relatively low levels in order to reduce the risk of unknowingly overfishing or driving ecosystems towards undesirable system states. The second is to expand existing data collection and analysis programs to provide an adequate knowledge base that can support higher fishing mortality targets while still ensuring low risk to target and associated species and ecosystems. However, defining "adequate" is difficult, especially when scientists have not even identified all marine species, and information on catches, abundances, and life histories of many target species, and most associated species, is sparse. Increasing calls from the public, stakeholders, and the scientific community to implement ecosystem-based stock assessment and management make it even more difficult to define "adequate," especially when "ecosystem-based management" is itself not well-defined. In attempting to describe the data collection and assessment needs for the latter, the authors took a pragmatic approach, rather than trying to estimate the resources required to develop a knowledge base about the fine-scale detailed distributions, abundances, and associations of all marine species. Thus, the specified resource requirements will not meet the expectations of some stakeholders. In addition, the Stock Assessment Improvement Plan is designed to be complementary to other related plans, and therefore does not duplicate the resource requirements detailed in those plans, except as otherwise noted.