Risk prediction of prevalent diabetes in a Swiss population using a weighted genetic score--the CoLaus Study.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Several susceptibility genes for type 2 diabetes have been discovered recently. Individually, these genes increase the disease risk only minimally. The goals of the present study were to determine, at the population level, the risk of diabetes in individuals who carry risk alleles within several susceptibility genes for the disease and the added value of this genetic information over the clinical predictors. METHODS: We constructed an additive genetic score using the most replicated single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) within 15 type 2 diabetes-susceptibility genes, weighting each SNP with its reported effect. We tested this score in the extensively phenotyped population-based cross-sectional CoLaus Study in Lausanne, Switzerland (n = 5,360), involving 356 diabetic individuals. RESULTS: The clinical predictors of prevalent diabetes were age, BMI, family history of diabetes, WHR, and triacylglycerol/HDL-cholesterol ratio. After adjustment for these variables, the risk of diabetes was 2.7 (95% CI 1.8-4.0, p = 0.000006) for individuals with a genetic score within the top quintile, compared with the bottom quintile. Adding the genetic score to the clinical covariates improved the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve slightly (from 0.86 to 0.87), yet significantly (p = 0.002). BMI was similar in these two extreme quintiles. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: In this population, a simple weighted 15 SNP-based genetic score provides additional information over clinical predictors of prevalent diabetes. At this stage, however, the clinical benefit of this genetic information is limited.

Efficient knowledge retrieval to calibrate input variables in forest fire prediction

Forest fires are a serious threat to humans and nature from an ecological, social and economic point of view. Predicting their behaviour by simulation still delivers unreliable results and remains a challenging task. Latest approaches try to calibrate input variables, often tainted with imprecision, using optimisation techniques like Genetic Algorithms. To converge faster towards fitter solutions, the GA is guided with knowledge obtained from historical or synthetical fires. We developed a robust and efficient knowledge storage and retrieval method. Nearest neighbour search is applied to find the fire configuration from knowledge base most similar to the current configuration. Therefore, a distance measure was elaborated and implemented in several ways. Experiments show the performance of the different implementations regarding occupied storage and retrieval time with overly satisfactory results.

Link between microstructure and properties in new metallurgical concepts for very low loss non-oriented electrical steel

The influence of chemistry and soaking temperature (maximal temperature of the continuous annealing) on the final properties of non-oriented electrical steels has been studied. With this objective two different studies have been performed. First the Mn, Ni and Cr content of a low loss electrical steel composition has been modified. An intermediate content and a high content of each element has been added in order to study the influence of this components on the magnetic looses, grain size and texture. Secondly the influence of the soaking temperature on magnetic properties, grain size and oxidation in four grades of non-oriented electrical steels (Steel A, B, C and D) was studied.

H-Link simulator

Aquest projecte intenta donar solució al problema amb el qual s’ha trobat la empresa Hitachi Air Conditioning Products SA a la hora de fer probes durant el desenvolupament del seu principal producte, el CSNet Web. El simulador que s’ha realitzat en aquest projecte pretén reproduir la topologia d’una xarxa d’unitats d’aire condicionat per a que el CSNet Web les interpreti com si aquestes màquines fossin reals. Per a aconseguir-ho, el simulador reproduirà les comunicacions entre aquestes màquines i el CSNet Web.

PKS2: A link between phototropin signalling and auxin transport - a study on how plants sense and respond to light.

The blue light photoreceptors phototropins (phot1 and phot2 in Arabidopsis thaliana (L.)) carry out various light responses of great adaptive value that optimize plant growth. These processes include phototropism (the bending of an organ induced by unequal light distribution), chloroplast movements, stomatal opening, leaf flattening and solar tracking. The biochemical pathways controlling these important blue light responses are just starting to be elucidated. The PHYTOCHROME KINASE SUBSTRATE (PKS1-4) proteins - the subject of this research - have recently been identified as novel phototropism signalling components. PKS1 (the founding member of this family) interacts in a same complex in vivo with phot1 and the important phot1 signalling element NON-PHOTOTROPIC HYPOCOTYL 3 (NPH3). This suggested that the PKS may act as early components of phot signalling. This work further investigates the role of this protein family during phototropin signalling Genetic experiments clearly showed that the PKS do not control chloroplast movements or stomatal opening. However, PKS2 plays a critical role with NPH3 during leaf flattening and solar tracking. Epistasis data indicated that both proteins act in phot1 and phot2 pathways, which is consistent with their in vivo interaction with both phototropins. Because phototropism, leaf flattening and solar tracking are developmental processes regulated by the hormone auxin, the role of PKS2 and NPH3 during auxin homeostasis was also investigated. Interestingly, PKS2 loss-of-function restores leaf flattening in the auxin transporter mutant aux1. Moreover, PKS2 and NPH3 are found in a same complex with AUX1 in vivo. Taken together, these results suggest that PKS2 may act with NPH3 as a connecting point between phot signalling and auxin transport. Further experiments were performed to explore the molecular mode of action of PKS2 and NPH3 in this process. The significance of these results is discussed.

The S. pombe cdc16 gene is required both for maintenance of p34cdc2 kinase activity and regulation of septum formation: a link between mitosis and cytokinesis?

In the fission yeast Schizosaccharomyces pombe, septum formation and cytokinesis are dependent upon the initiation, though not the completion of mitosis. A number of cell cycle mutants which show phenotypes consistent with a defect in the regulation of septum formation have been isolated. A mutation in the S. pombe cdc16 gene leads to the formation of multiple septa without cytokinesis, suggesting that the normal mechanisms that limit the cell to the formation of a single septum in each cycle do not operate. Mutations in the S. pombe early septation mutants cdc7, cdc11, cdc14 and cdc15 lead to the formation of elongated, multinucleate cells, as a result of S phase and mitosis continuing in the absence of cytokinesis. This suggests that in these cells, the normal mechanisms which initiate cytokinesis are defective and that they are unable to respond to this by preventing further nuclear cycles. Genetic analysis has implied that the products of some of these genes may interact with that of the cdc16 gene. To understand how the processes of septation and cytokinesis are regulated and coordinated with mitosis we are studying the early septation mutants and cdc16. In this paper, we present the cloning and analysis of the cdc16 gene. Deletion of the gene shows that it is essential for cell proliferation: spores lacking a functional cdc16 gene germinate, complete mitosis and form multiple septa without undergoing cell cleavage.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

Nominal Stability and Financial Globalization

Over the past four decades, advanced economies experienced a large growth in gross external portfolio positions. This phenomenon has been described as Financial Globalization. Over roughly the same time frame, most of these countries also saw a substantial fall in the level and variability of inflation. Many economists have conjectured that financial globalization contributed to the improved performance in the level and predictability of inflation. In this paper, we explore the causal link running in the opposite direction. We show that a monetary policy rule which reduces inflation variability leads to an increase in the size of gross external positions, both in equity and bond portfolios. This appears to be a robust prediction of open economy macro models with endogenous portfolio choice. It holds across different modeling specifications and parameterizations. We also present preliminary empirical evidence which shows a negative relationship between inflation volatility and the size of gross external positions.

Temper and Temperature: The Missing Link of Climate on Armed Conflicts

We investigate the causes of a conflict by adding ambient climate factors to the existing bundle of most significant variables. It turns out that – controlling for possible associations – temperature could actually induce a conflict. We emphasise that temperature could not be a dominant reason in starting a conflict; however, it could escalate the chances when other factors are present. This paper references some of the related psychological studies to support this claim. We also show that grievance factors could actually be rightfully effective in starting an internal conflict alongside greed based reasons. In the end, we believe that it could be informative to study ambient factors more often in economics.

Validity of impedance-based equations for the prediction of total body water as measured by deuterium dilution in African women.

BACKGROUND: Little information is available on the validity of simple and indirect body-composition methods in non-Western populations. Equations for predicting body composition are population-specific, and body composition differs between blacks and whites. OBJECTIVE: We tested the hypothesis that the validity of equations for predicting total body water (TBW) from bioelectrical impedance analysis measurements is likely to depend on the racial background of the group from which the equations were derived. DESIGN: The hypothesis was tested by comparing, in 36 African women, TBW values measured by deuterium dilution with those predicted by 23 equations developed in white, African American, or African subjects. These cross-validations in our African sample were also compared, whenever possible, with results from other studies in black subjects. RESULTS: Errors in predicting TBW showed acceptable values (1.3-1.9 kg) in all cases, whereas a large range of bias (0.2-6.1 kg) was observed independently of the ethnic origin of the sample from which the equations were derived. Three equations (2 from whites and 1 from blacks) showed nonsignificant bias and could be used in Africans. In all other cases, we observed either an overestimation or underestimation of TBW with variable bias values, regardless of racial background, yielding no clear trend for validity as a function of ethnic origin. CONCLUSIONS: The findings of this cross-validation study emphasize the need for further fundamental research to explore the causes of the poor validity of TBW prediction equations across populations rather than the need to develop new prediction equations for use in Africa.

Patients' prediction of extubation success.

The spontaneous breathing trial (SBT)-relying on objective criteria assessed by the clinician-is the major diagnostic tool to determine if patients can be successfully extubated. However, little is known regarding the patient's subjective perception of autonomous breathing. We performed a prospective observational study in 211 mechanically ventilated adult patients successfully completing a SBT. Patients were randomly assigned to be interviewed during this trial regarding their prediction of extubation success. We compared post-extubation outcomes in three patient groups: patients confident (confidents; n = 115) or not (non-confidents; n = 38) of their extubation success and patients not subjected to interview (control group; n = 58). Extubation success was more frequent in confidents than in non-confidents (90 vs. 45%; p < 0.001/positive likelihood ratio = 2.00) or in the control group (90 vs. 78%; p = 0.04). On the contrary, extubation failure was more common in non-confidents than in confidents (55 vs. 10%; p < 0.001/negative likelihood ratio = 0.19). Logistic regression analysis showed that extubation success was associated with patient's prediction [OR (95% CI): 9.2 (3.74-22.42) for confidents vs.non-confidents] as well as to age [0.72 (0.66-0.78) for age 75 vs. 65 and 1.31 (1.28-1.51) for age 55 vs. 65]. Our data suggest that at the end of a sustained SBT, extubation success might be correlated to the patients' subjective perception of autonomous breathing. The results of this study should be confirmed by a large multicenter trial.

Geometry and physics of knots

KNOTS are usually categorized in terms of topological properties that are invariant under changes in a knot's spatial configuration(1-4). Here we approach knot identification from a different angle, by considering the properties of particular geometrical forms which we define as 'ideal'. For a knot with a given topology and assembled from a tube of uniform diameter, the ideal form is the geometrical configuration having the highest ratio of volume to surface area. Practically, this is equivalent to determining the shortest piece of tube that can be closed to form the knot. Because the notion of an ideal form is independent of absolute spatial scale, the length-to-diameter ratio of a tube providing an ideal representation is constant, irrespective of the tube's actual dimensions. We report the results of computer simulations which show that these ideal representations of knots have surprisingly simple geometrical properties. In particular, there is a simple linear relationship between the length-to-diameter ratio and the crossing number-the number of intersections in a two-dimensional projection of the knot averaged over all directions. We have also found that the average shape of knotted polymeric chains in thermal equilibrium is closely related to the ideal representation of the corresponding knot type. Our observations provide a link between ideal geometrical objects and the behaviour of seemingly disordered systems, and allow the prediction of properties of knotted polymers such as their electrophoretic mobility(5).

New genetic loci link adipose and insulin biology to body fat distribution.

Body fat distribution is a heritable trait and a well-established predictor of adverse metabolic outcomes, independent of overall adiposity. To increase our understanding of the genetic basis of body fat distribution and its molecular links to cardiometabolic traits, here we conduct genome-wide association meta-analyses of traits related to waist and hip circumferences in up to 224,459 individuals. We identify 49 loci (33 new) associated with waist-to-hip ratio adjusted for body mass index (BMI), and an additional 19 loci newly associated with related waist and hip circumference measures (P < 5 × 10(-8)). In total, 20 of the 49 waist-to-hip ratio adjusted for BMI loci show significant sexual dimorphism, 19 of which display a stronger effect in women. The identified loci were enriched for genes expressed in adipose tissue and for putative regulatory elements in adipocytes. Pathway analyses implicated adipogenesis, angiogenesis, transcriptional regulation and insulin resistance as processes affecting fat distribution, providing insight into potential pathophysiological mechanisms.

Psychoses a l'adolescence, les neurosciences ameliorent-elles la prediction? [Adolescent psychosis, can neuroscience improve prediction?]

Developments in the field of neuroscience have created a high level of interest in the subject of adolescent psychosis, particularly in relation to prediction and prevention. As the medical practice of adolescent psychosis and its treatment is characterised by a heterogeneity which is both symptomatic and evolutive, the somewhat poor prognosis of chronic development justifies the research performed: apparent indicators of schizophrenic disorders on the one hand and specific endophenotypes on the other are becoming increasingly important. The significant progresses made on the human genome show that the genetic predetermination in current psychiatric pathologies is complex and subject to moderating effects and there is therefore significant potential for nature-nurture interactions (between the environment and the genes). The road to be followed in researching the phenotypic expression of a psychosis gene is long and winding and is susceptible to many external influences at various levels with different effects. Neurobiological, neurophysiological, neuropsychological and neuroanatomical studies help to identify endophenotypes, which allow researchers to create identifying "markers" along this winding road. The endophenotypes could make it possible to redefine the nosological categories and enhance understanding of the physiopathology of schizophrenia. In a predictive approach, large-scale retrospective and prospective studies make it possible to identify risk factors, which are compatible with the neurodevelopmental hypothesis of schizophrenia. However, the predictive value of such markers or risk indicators is not yet sufficiently developed to offer a reliable early-detection method or possible schizophrenia prevention measures. Nonetheless, new developments show promise against the background of a possible future nosographic revolution, based on a paradigm shift. It is perhaps on the basis of homogeneous endophenotypes in particular that we will be able to understand what protects against, or indeed can trigger, psychosis irrespective of the clinical expression or attempts to isolate the common genetic and biological bases according to homogeneous clinical characteristics, which have to date, proved unsuccessful