Eliciting and encoding expert knowledge on variable selection into classical or Bayesian species distribution models

The quality of species distribution models (SDMs) relies to a large degree on the quality of the input data, from bioclimatic indices to environmental and habitat descriptors (Austin, 2002). Recent reviews of SDM techniques, have sought to optimize predictive performance e.g. Elith et al., 2006. In general SDMs employ one of three approaches to variable selection. The simplest approach relies on the expert to select the variables, as in environmental niche models Nix, 1986 or a generalized linear model without variable selection (Miller and Franklin, 2002). A second approach explicitly incorporates variable selection into model fitting, which allows examination of particular combinations of variables. Examples include generalized linear or additive models with variable selection (Hastie et al. 2002); or classification trees with complexity or model based pruning (Breiman et al., 1984, Zeileis, 2008). A third approach uses model averaging, to summarize the overall contribution of a variable, without considering particular combinations. Examples include neural networks, boosted or bagged regression trees and Maximum Entropy as compared in Elith et al. 2006. Typically, users of SDMs will either consider a small number of variable sets, via the first approach, or else supply all of the candidate variables (often numbering more than a hundred) to the second or third approaches. Bayesian SDMs exist, with several methods for eliciting and encoding priors on model parameters (see review in Low Choy et al. 2010). However few methods have been published for informative variable selection; one example is Bayesian trees (O’Leary 2008). Here we report an elicitation protocol that helps makes explicit a priori expert judgements on the quality of candidate variables. This protocol can be flexibly applied to any of the three approaches to variable selection, described above, Bayesian or otherwise. We demonstrate how this information can be obtained then used to guide variable selection in classical or machine learning SDMs, or to define priors within Bayesian SDMs.

Metal-organic framework structures - how closely are they related to classical inorganic structures?

Metal-organic frameworks (MOFs) have emerged as an important family of compounds for which new properties are increasingly being found. The potential for such compounds appears to be immense, especially in catalysis, sorption and separation processes. In order to appreciate the properties and to design newer frameworks it is necessary to understand the structures from a fundamental perspective. The use of node, net and vertex symbols has helped in simplifying some of the complex MOF structures. Many MOF structures are beginning to be described as derived from inorganic structures. In this tutorial review, we have provided the basics of the node, the net and the vertex symbols and have explained some of the MOF structures. In addition, we have also attempted to provide some leads towards designing newer structures/topologies.

Harbouring dissent: Greek independent and social media and the antifascist movement

This article examines Greek activists’ use of a range of communication technologies, including social media, blogs, citizen journalism sites, Web radio, and anonymous networks. Drawing on Anna Tsing’s theoretical model, the article examines key frictions around digital technologies that emerged within a case study of the antifascist movement in Athens, focusing on the period around the 2013 shutdown of Athens Indymedia. Drawing on interviews with activists and analysis of online communications, including issue networks and social media activity, we find that the antifascist movement itself is created and recreated through a process of productive friction, as different groups and individuals with varying ideologies and experiences work together.

Non-Abelian monopoles break color. I. Classical mechanics

Monopoles which are sources of non-Abelian magnetic flux are predicted by many models of grand unification. It has been argued elsewhere that a generic transformation of the "unbroken" symmetry group H cannot be globally implemented on such monopoles for reasons of topology. In this paper, we show that similar topological obstructions are encountered in the mechanics of a test particle in the field of these monopoles and that the transformations of H cannot all be globally implemented as canonical transformations. For the SU(5) model, if H is SU(3)C×U(1)em, a consequence is that color multiplets are not globally defined, while if H is SU(3)C×SU(2)WS×U(1)Y, the same is the case for both color and electroweak multiplets. There are, however, several subgroups KT, KT′,… of H which can be globally implemented, with the transformation laws of the observables differing from group to group in a novel way. For H=SU(3)C×U(1)em, a choice for KT is SU(2)C×U(1)em, while for H=SU(3)C×SU(2)WS×U(1)Y, a choice is SU(2)C×U(1)×U(1)×U(1). The paper also develops the differential geometry of monopoles in a form convenient for computations.

Assessing the potential of the rust fungus Puccinia spegazzinii as a classical biological control agent for the invasive weed Mikania micrantha in Papua New Guinea

The rust fungus Puccinia spegazzinii was introduced into Papua New Guinea (PNG) in 2008 as a classical biological control agent of the invasive weed Mikania micrantha (Asteraceae), following its earlier release in India, mainland China and Taiwan. Prior to implementing field releases in PNG, assessments were conducted to determine the most suitable rust pathotype for the country, potential for damage to non-target species, most efficient culturing method and potential impact to M. micrantha. The pathotype from eastern Ecuador was selected from the seven pathotypes tested, since all the plant populations evaluated from PNG were highly susceptible to it. None of the 11 plant species (representing eight families) tested to confirm host specificity showed symptoms of infection, supporting previous host range determination. A method of mass-producing inoculum of the rust fungus, using a simple technology which can be readily replicated in other countries, was developed. Comparative growth trials over one rust generation showed that M. micrantha plants infected with the rust generally had both lower growth rates and lower final dry weights, and produced fewer nodes than uninfected plants. There were significant correlations between the number of pustules and (a) the growth rate, (b) number of new nodes and (c) final total dry weight of single-stemmed plants placed in open sunlight and between the number of pustules and number of new nodes of multi-stemmed plants placed under cocoa trees. The trials suggest that field densities of M. micrantha could be reduced if the rust populations are sufficiently high. Crown Copyright (C) 2013 Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Prospects for the classical biological control of Calotropis procera (Apocynaceae) using co-evolved insects

Calotropis procera (Apocynaceae), a native of tropical Africa, the Middle East and the Indian subcontinent, is a serious environmental and rangeland weed of Australia and Brazil. It is also a weed in Hawaii in USA, the Caribbean Islands, the Seychelles, Mexico, Thailand, Vietnam and many Pacific Islands. In the native range C. procera has many natural enemies, thus classical biological control could be the most cost-effective option for its long-term management. Based on field surveys in India and a literature search, some 65 species of insects and five species of mites have been documented on C. procera and another congeneric-invador C. gigantea in the native range. All the leaf-feeding and stem-boring agents recorded on Calotropis spp. have wide host range. Three pre-dispersal seed predators,the Aak weevil Paramecops farinosus and the Aak fruit fly Dacuspersicus in the Indian subcontinent, and the Sodom apple fruit fly Dacus longistylus in the Middle East have been identified as prospective biological control agents based on their field host range. In Australia and Brazil, where C. procera has the potential to spread across vast areas, pre-dispersal seed predators would help to limit the spread of the weed. While the fruits of C. procera vary in size and shape across its range, those from India are similar to the ones in Australia and Brazil. Hence, seed-feeding insects from India are more likely to be suitable due to adaptation to fruit size and morphology. Future survey efforts for potential biological control agents should focus on North Africa.

Classical solitons with no quantum counterparts and their supersymmetric revival

We demonstrate the phenomenon stated in the title, using for illustration a two-dimensional scalar-field model with a triple-well potential {fx837-1}. At the classical level, this system supports static topological solitons with finite energy. Upon quantisation, however, these solitons develop infinite energy, which cannot be renormalised away. Thus this quantised model has no soliton sector, even though classical solitons exist. Finally when the model is extended supersymmetrically by adding a Majorana field, finiteness of the soliton energy is recovered.

Overcoming barriers to the successful implementation of a classical biological control strategy for the exotic invasive weed Mikania micrantha in the Asia-Pacific region

Mikania micrantha (Asteraceae) commonly known as mikania, is a major invasive alien plant (IAP) in the tropical humid agricultural and forest zones of the Asia-Pacific region. This fast-growing Neotropical vine is able to smother plants in agricultural ecosystems, agroforestry and natural habitats, reducing productivity and biodiversity. Fungal pathogens were first investigated for the classical biological control of this weed in 1996. This resulted in the selection and screening of the highly host-specific and damaging rust pathogen, Puccinia spegazzinii (Pucciniales). It was first released in India and China in 2005/6, although it is not believed to have established. Since then, it has been released successfully in Taiwan, Papua New Guinea (PNG), Fiji and most recently Vanuatu. The rust has established and is spreading rapidly after applying lessons learned from the first releases on the best rust pathotype and release strategy. In PNG, direct monitoring of vegetation change has demonstrated that the rust is having a significant impact on M. micrantha, with no unpredicted non-target impacts. Despite this, the authorities in many countries where mikania is a problem remain cautious about releasing the rust. In Western Samoa, introduction of the rust was not pursued because of a conflict of interest, and the perception that mikania suppresses even worse weeds. For some, ‘pathophobia’ is still a major obstacle. In Indonesia, where insects for weed CBC have been introduced, pathogens will currently not be considered. In other countries such as Bhutan and Myanmar, there are no baseline data on the presence and impact of IAPs and, with no history of CBC, no institutional framework for implementing this approach. Malaysia has a well-developed framework, but capacity needs to be built in the country. Overall, it remains critical to have champions at decision making levels. Hence, even with an effective ‘off-the-shelf’ agent available, implementation of mikania CBC still requires significant inputs tailored to the countries’ specific needs.

Pilgrimage as a Lifestyle : A Contemporary Greek Nunnery as a Pilgrimage Site

The aim of this research is to present, interpret and analyze the phenomenon of pilgrimage in a contemporary, suburban Greek nunnery, and to elucidate the different functions that the present-day convent has for its pilgrims. The scope of the study is limited to a case nunnery, the convent of the Dormition of the Virgin, which is situated in Northern Greece. The main corpus of data utilized for this work consists of 25 interviews and field diary material, which was collected in the convent mainly during the academic year 2002-2003 and summer 2005 by means of participant observation and unstructured thematic interviewing. It must be noted that most Greek nunneries are not really communities of hermits but institutions that operate in complex interaction with the surrounding society. Thus, the main interest in this study is in the interaction between pilgrims and nuns. Pilgrimage is seen here as a significant and concrete form of interaction, which in fact makes the contemporary nunneries dynamic scenes of religious, social and sometimes even political life. The focus of the analysis is on the pilgrims’ experiences, reflected upon on the levels of the individual, the Church institution, and society in general. This study shows that pilgrimage in a suburban nunnery, such as the convent of the Dormition, can be seen as part of everyday religiosity. Many pilgrims visit the convent regularly and the visitation is a lifestyle the pilgrims have chosen and wish to maintain. Pilgrimage to a contemporary Greek nunnery should not be ennobled, but seen as part of a popular religious sentiment. The visits offer pilgrims various tools for reflecting on their personal life situations and on questions of identity. For them the full round of liturgical worship is a very good reason for going to the convent, and many see it as a way of maintaining their faith and of feeling close to God. Despite cultural developments such as secularization and globalization, pilgrims are quite loyal to the convent they visit. It represents the positive values of ‘Greekness’ and therefore they also trust the nuns’ approach to various matters, both personal and political. The coalition of Orthodoxy and nationalism is also visible in their attitudes towards the convent, which they see as a guardian of Hellenism and as nurturing Greek values both now and in the future.

One Word, One Body, One Voice : Studies in Apophatic Theology and Christocentric Anthropology in Gregory of Nyssa

The thesis consists of five international congress papers and a summary with an introduction. The overarching aim of the studies and the summary is to examine the inner coherency of the theological and anthropological thinking of Gregory of Nyssa (331-395). To the issue is applied an "apophatic approach" with a "Christological focus". It is suggested that the coherency is to be found from the Christological concept of unity between "true God" and "true man" in the one person of Jesus Christ. Gregory is among the first to make a full recognition of two natures of Christ, and to use this recognition systematically in his writings. The aim of the studies is pursued by the method of "identification", a combination of the modern critical "problematic method" and Gregory's own aphairetic method of "following" (akolouthia). The preoccupation with issues relating to the so-called Hellenization of Christianity in the patristic era was strong in the twentieth-century Gregory scholarship. The most discussed questions have been the Greek influence in his thought and his philosophical sources. In the five articles of the thesis it is examined how Gregory's thinking stands in its own right. The manifestly apophatic character of his theological thinking is made a part of the method of examining his thought according to the principles of his own method of following. The basic issue concerning the relation of theology and anthropology is discussed in the contexts of his central Trinitarian, anhtropological, Christological and eschatological sources. In the summary the Christocentric integration of Gregory's thinking is discussed also in relation to the issue of the alledged Hellenization. The main conclusion of the thesis concerns the concept of theology in Gregory. It is not indebted to the classical concept of theology as metaphysics or human speculation of God. Instead, it is founded to the traditional Judeo-Christian idea of God who speaks with his people face to face. In Gregory, theologia connotes the oikonomia of God's self-revelation. It may be regarded as the state of constant expression of love between the Creator and his created image. In theology, the human person becomes an image of the Word by which the Father expresses his love to "man" whom he loves as his own Son. Eventually the whole humankind, as one, gives the divine Word a physical - audible and sensible - Body. Humankind then becomes what theology is. The whole humanity expresses divine love by manifesting Christ in words and deeds, singing in one voice to the glory of the Father, the Son and the Holy Spirit.

Non-diffusive classical transport in a medium with static randomness

The probability distribution for the displacement x of a particle moving in a one-dimensional continuum is derived exactly for the general case of combined static and dynamic gaussian randomness of the applied force. The dynamics of the particle is governed by the high-friction limit of Brownian motion discussed originally by Einstein and Smoluchowski. In particular, the mean square displacement of the particle varies as t2 for t to infinity . This ballistic motion induced by the disorder does not give rise to a 1/f power spectrum, contrary to recent suggestions based on the above dynamical model.

Semi-Classical Mechanics in Phase Space: A Study of Wigner's Function

We explore the semi-classical structure of the Wigner functions ($\Psi $(q, p)) representing bound energy eigenstates $|\psi \rangle $ for systems with f degrees of freedom. If the classical motion is integrable, the classical limit of $\Psi $ is a delta function on the f-dimensional torus to which classical trajectories corresponding to ($|\psi \rangle $) are confined in the 2f-dimensional phase space. In the semi-classical limit of ($\Psi $ ($\hslash $) small but not zero) the delta function softens to a peak of order ($\hslash ^{-\frac{2}{3}f}$) and the torus develops fringes of a characteristic 'Airy' form. Away from the torus, $\Psi $ can have semi-classical singularities that are not delta functions; these are discussed (in full detail when f = 1) using Thom's theory of catastrophes. Brief consideration is given to problems raised when ($\Psi $) is calculated in a representation based on operators derived from angle coordinates and their conjugate momenta. When the classical motion is non-integrable, the phase space is not filled with tori and existing semi-classical methods fail. We conjecture that (a) For a given value of non-integrability parameter ($\epsilon $), the system passes through three semi-classical regimes as ($\hslash $) diminishes. (b) For states ($|\psi \rangle $) associated with regions in phase space filled with irregular trajectories, ($\Psi $) will be a random function confined near that region of the 'energy shell' explored by these trajectories (this region has more than f dimensions). (c) For ($\epsilon \neq $0, $\hslash $) blurs the infinitely fine classical path structure, in contrast to the integrable case ($\epsilon $ = 0, where $\hslash $ )imposes oscillatory quantum detail on a smooth classical path structure.

The virial expansion of a classical interacting system

We consider N particles interacting pairwise by an inverse square potential in one dimension (Calogero-Sutherland-Moser model). For a system placed in a harmonic trap, its classical partition function for the repulsive regime is recognised in the literature. We start by presenting a concise re-derivation of this result. The equation of state is then calculated both for the trapped and the homogeneous gas. Finally, the classical limit of Wu's distribution function for fractional exclusion statistics is obtained and we re-derive the classical virial expansion of the homogeneous gas using this distribution function.

Hanle-Zeeman redistribution matrix. I. Classical theory expressions in the laboratory frame

Polarized scattering in spectral lines is governed by a 4; 4 matrix that describes how the Stokes vector is scattered and redistributed in frequency and direction. Here we develop the theory for this redistribution matrix in the presence of magnetic fields of arbitrary strength and direction. This general magnetic field case is called the Hanle- Zeeman regime, since it covers both of the partially overlapping weak- and strong- field regimes in which the Hanle and Zeeman effects dominate the scattering polarization. In this general regime, the angle-frequency correlations that describe the so-called partial frequency redistribution (PRD) are intimately coupled to the polarization properties. We develop the theory for the PRD redistribution matrix in this general case and explore its detailed mathematical properties and symmetries for the case of a J = 0 -> 1 -> 0 scattering transition, which can be treated in terms of time-dependent classical oscillator theory. It is shown how the redistribution matrix can be expressed as a linear superposition of coherent and noncoherent parts, each of which contain the magnetic redistribution functions that resemble the well- known Hummer- type functions. We also show how the classical theory can be extended to treat atomic and molecular scattering transitions for any combinations of quantum numbers.