Statistical analysis of eight surface ozone measurement series for various sites in Ireland

Data from various stations having different measurement record periods between 1988 and 2007 are analyzed to investigate the surface ozone concentration, long-term trends, and seasonal changes in and around Ireland. Time series statistical analysis is performed on the monthly mean data using seasonal and trend decomposition procedures and the Box-Jenkins approach (autoregressive integrated moving average). In general, ozone concentrations in the Irish region are found to have a negative trend at all sites except at the coastal sites of Mace Head and Valentia. Data from the most polluted Dublin city site have shown a very strong negative trend of −0.33 ppb/yr with a 95% confidence limit of 0.17 ppb/yr (i.e., −0.33 ± 0.17) for the period 2002−2007, and for the site near the city of Cork, the trend is found to be −0.20 ± 0.11 ppb/yr over the same period. The negative trend for other sites is more pronounced when the data span is considered from around the year 2000 to 2007. Rural sites of Wexford and Monaghan have also shown a very strong negative trend of −0.99 ± 0.13 and −0.58 ± 0.12, respectively, for the period 2000−2007. Mace Head, a site that is representative of ozone changes in the air advected from the Atlantic to Europe in the marine planetary boundary layer, has shown a positive trend of about +0.16 ± 0.04 ppb per annum over the entire period 1988−2007, but this positive trend has reduced during recent years (e.g., in the period 2001−2007). Cluster analysis for back trajectories are performed for the stations having a long record of data, Mace Head and Lough Navar. For Mace Head, the northern and western clean air sectors have shown a similar positive trend (+0.17 ± 0.02 ppb/yr for the northern sector and +0.18 ± 0.02 ppb/yr for the western sector) for the whole period, but partial analysis for the clean western sector at Mace Head shows different trends during different time periods with a decrease in the positive trend since 1988 indicating a deceleration in the ozone trend for Atlantic air masses entering Europe.

An assessment of the surface ozone trend in Ireland relevant to air pollution and environmental protection

Hourly data (1994–2009) of surface ozone concentrations at eight monitoring sites have been investigated to assess target level and long–term objective exceedances and their trends. The European Union (EU) ozone target value for human health (60 ppb–maximum daily 8–hour running mean) has been exceeded for a number of years for almost all sites but never exceeded the set limit of 25 exceedances in one year. Second highest annual hourly and 4th highest annual 8–hourly mean ozone concentrations have shown a statistically significant negative trend for in–land sites of Cork–Glashaboy, Monaghan and Lough Navar and no significant trend for the Mace Head site. Peak afternoon ozone concentrations averaged over a three year period from 2007 to 2009 have been found to be lower than corresponding values over a three–year period from 1996 to 1998 for two sites: Cork–Glashaboy and Lough Navar sites. The EU long–term objective value of AOT40 (Accumulated Ozone Exposure over a threshold of 40 ppb) for protection of vegetation (3 ppm–hour, calculated from May to July) has been exceeded, on an individual year basis, for two sites: Mace Head and Valentia. The critical level for the protection of forest (10 ppm–hour from April to September) has not been exceeded for any site except at Valentia in the year 2003. AOT40–Vegetation shows a significant negative trend for a 3–year running average at Cork–Glashaboy (–0.13±0.02 ppm–hour per year), at Lough Navar (–0.05±0.02 ppm–hour per year) and at Monaghan (–0.03±0.03 ppm–hour per year–not statistically significant) sites. No statistically significant trend was observed for the coastal site of Mace head. Overall, with the exception of the Mace Head and Monaghan sites, ozone measurement records at Irish sites show a downward negative trend in peak values that affect human health and vegetation.

Centennial-scale climate change in Ireland during the Holocene

We examine mid- to late Holocene centennial-scale climate variability in Ireland using proxy data from peatlands, lakes and a speleothem. A high degree of between-record variability is apparent in the proxy data and significant chronological uncertainties are present. However, tephra layers provide a robust tool for correlation and improve the chronological precision of the records. Although we can find no statistically significant coherence in the dataset as a whole, a selection of high-quality peatland water table reconstructions co-vary more than would be expected by chance alone. A locally weighted regression model with bootstrapping can be used to construct a ‘best-estimate’ palaeoclimatic reconstruction from these datasets. Visual comparison and cross-wavelet analysis of peatland water table compilations from Ireland and Northern Britain show that there are some periods of coherence between these records. Some terrestrial palaeoclimatic changes in Ireland appear to coincide with changes in the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation and solar activity. However, these relationships are inconsistent and may be obscured by chronological uncertainties. We conclude by suggesting an agenda for future Holocene climate research in Ireland.

Information and punitiveness: trial reconstruction in Ireland

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to report results from a rape trial reconstruction in Ireland. Design/methodology/approach – A studio audience of 100 members of the Irish public were selected to attend a TV programme by the Republic of Ireland’s national broadcasting organisation. This involved the examination of the sentencing of a rape case. The audience’s sentencing preferences were measured at the outset, when they had been given only summary information about the case, and later, when full details had been disclosed. Findings – Previous research examining changes in public attitudes to crime and punishment has shown that deliberation, including the provision of new information and discussion with others and experts, tends to decrease public punitiveness and increase public leniency towards sentencing. An experiment in Ireland, however, showed that providing information does not invariably and necessarily moderate punitive attitudes. This paper presents the results, and offers some explanations for the anomalous outcome. Research limitations/implications – The pre/post design, in which the audience served as their own controls, is a weak one, and participants may have responded to what they took to be the agenda of the producers. Due to the quality of the sample, the results may not be generalisable to the broader Irish population. Practical implications – Policy makers should recognise that the public is not uniformly punitive for all crimes. There is good research evidence to show that the apparent public appetite for tough punishment is illusory, and is a function of the way that polls measure public attitudes to punishment. Sentencers and those responsible for sentencing policy would benefit from a fuller understanding of the sorts of cases which illicit strong punitive responses from the public, and the reasons for this response. However any such understanding should not simply translate into responsiveness to the public’s punitive sentiments – where these exist. Innovative survey methods – like this experiment – which attempt to look beyond the top-of-the-head opinions by providing information and opportunities for deliberation should be welcomed and used more widely. Originality/value – There have been limited research studies which reports factors which may increase punitiveness through the provision of information and deliberation.

Examining the relationships between Holocene climate change, hydrology, and human society in Ireland

This thesis explores human-environment interactions during the Mid-Late Holocene in raised bogs in central Ireland. The raised bogs of central Ireland are widely-recognised for their considerable palaeoenvironmental and archaeological resources: research over the past few decades has established the potential for such sites to preserve sensitive records of Holocene climatic variability expressed as changes in bog surface wetness (BSW); meanwhile archaeological investigations over the past century have uncovered hundreds of peatland archaeological features dating from the Neolithic through to the Post-Medieval period including wooden trackways, platforms, and deposits of high-status metalwork. Previous studies have attempted to explore the relationship between records of past environmental change and the occurrence of peatland archaeological sites reaching varying conclusions. More recently, environmentally-deterministic models of human-environment interaction in Irish raised bogs at the regional scale have been explicitly tested leading to the conclusion that there is no relationship between BSW and past human activity. These relationships are examined in more detail on a site-by-site basis in this thesis. To that end, testate amoebae-derived BSW records from nine milled former raised bogs in central Ireland were produced from sites with known and dated archaeological records. Relationships between BSW records and environmental conditions within the study area were explored through both the development of a new central Ireland testate amoebae transfer function and through comparisons between recent BSW records and instrumental weather data. Compilation of BSW records from the nine fossil study sites show evidence both for climate forcing, particularly during 3200-2400 cal BP, as well as considerable inter-site variability. Considerable inter-site variability was also evident in the archaeological records of the same sites. Whilst comparisons between BSW and archaeological records do not show a consistent linear relationship, examination of records on a site-by-site basis were shown to reveal interpretatively important contingent relationships. It is concluded therefore, that future research on human-environment interactions should focus on individual sites and should utilise theoretical approaches from the humanities in order to avoid the twin pitfalls of masking important local patterns of change, and of environmental determinism.

Dying young: a palaeopathological analysis of child health in Roman Britain

Children represent the most vulnerable members of society, and as such provide valuable insight into past lifeways. Adverse environmental conditions translate more readily into the osteological record of children, making them primary evidence for the investigation of ill-health in the past. To date, most information on growing up in Roman Britain has been based on the Classical literature, or discussed in palaeopathological studies with a regional focus, e.g. Dorset or Durnovaria. Thus, the lifestyles and everyday realities of children throughout Britannia remained largely unknown. This study sets out to fill this gap by providing the first large scale analysis of Romano-British children from town and country. The palaeopathological analysis of 1643 non-adult (0-17 years) skeletons, compiled from the literature (N=690) and primary osteological analysis (N=953), from 27 urban and rural settlements has highlighted diverse patterns in non-adult mortality and morbidity. The distribution of ages-at-death suggest that older children and adolescents migrated from country to town, possibly for commencing their working lives. True prevalence rates suggest that caries (1.8%) and enamel hypoplasia (11.4%) were more common in children from major urban towns, whereas children in the countryside displayed higher frequencies of scurvy (6.9%), cribra orbitalia (27.7%), porotic hyperostosis (6.2%) and endocranial lesions (10.9%). Social inequality in late Roman Britain may have been the driving force behind these urban-rural dichotomies. The results may point to exploitation of the peasantry on the one hand, and higher status of the urban population as a more ‘Romanised’ group on the other. Comparison with Iron Age and post-medieval non-adults also demonstrated a decline in health in the Roman period, with some levels of ill-health, particularly in the rural children, similar to those from post-medieval London. This research provides the most comprehensive study of non-adult morbidity and mortality in Roman Britain to date. It has provided new insights into Romano-British lifeways and presents suggestions for further work.

'They would never receive you without a husband' : Paradoxical barriers to antenatal care scale-up in Rwanda

OBJECTIVE: to explore perspectives and experiences of antenatal care and partner involvement among women who nearly died during pregnancy ('near-miss'). DESIGN: a study guided by naturalistic inquiry was conducted, and included extended in-community participant observation, semi-structured interviews, and focus group discussions. Qualitative data were collected between March 2013 and April 2014 in Kigali, Rwanda. FINDINGS: all informants were aware of the recommendations of male involvement for HIV-testing at the first antenatal care visit. However, this recommendation was seen as a clear link in the chain of delays and led to severe consequences, especially for women without engaged partners. The overall quality of antenatal services was experienced as suboptimal, potentially missing the opportunity to provide preventive measures and essential health education intended for both parents. This seemed to contribute to women's disincentive to complete all four recommended visits and men's interest in attending to ensure their partners' reception of care. However, the participants experienced a restriction of men's access during subsequent antenatal visits, which made men feel denied to their increased involvement during pregnancy. CONCLUSIONS: 'near-miss' women and their partners face paradoxical barriers to actualise the recommended antenatal care visits. The well-intended initiative of male partner involvement counterproductively causes delays or excludes women whereas supportive men are turned away from further health consultations. Currently, the suboptimal quality of antenatal care misses the opportunity to provide health education for the expectant couple or to identify and address early signs of complications IMPLICATIONS FOR PRACTICE: these findings suggest a need for increased flexibility in the antenatal care recommendations to encourage women to attend care with or without their partner, and to create open health communication about women's and men's real needs within the context of their social situations. Supportive partners should not be denied involvement at any stage of pregnancy, but should be received only upon consent of the expectant mother.

Self-assessment of the outcome of early medical abortion versus clinic follow-up in India : a randomised, controlled, non-inferiority trial

Background: The need for multiple clinical visits remains a barrier to women accessing safe legal medical abortion services. Alternatives to routine clinic follow-up visits have not been assessed in rural low-resource settings. We compared the effectiveness of standard clinic follow-up versus home assessment of outcome of medical abortion in a low-resource setting. Methods: This randomised, controlled, non-inferiority trial was done in six health centres (three rural, three urban) in Rajasthan, India. Women seeking early medical abortion up to 9 weeks of gestation were randomly assigned (1:1) to either routine clinic follow-up or self-assessment at home. Randomisation was done with a computer-generated randomisation sequence, with a block size of six. The study was not blinded. Women in the home-assessment group were advised to use a pictorial instruction sheet and take a low-sensitivity urine pregnancy test at home, 10-14 days after intake of mifepristone, and were contacted by a home visit or telephone call to record the outcome of the abortion. The primary (non-inferiority) outcome was complete abortion without continuing pregnancy or need for surgical evacuation or additional mifepristone and misoprostol. The non-inferiority margin for the risk difference was 5%. All participants with a reported primary outcome and who followed the clinical protocol were included in the analysis. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT01827995. Findings: Between April 23, 2013, and May 15, 2014, 731 women were recruited and assigned to clinic follow-up (n=366) or home assessment (n=365), of whom 700 were analysed for the main outcomes (n=336 and n=364, respectively). Complete abortion without continuing pregnancy, surgical intervention, or additional mifepristone and misoprostol was reported in 313 (93%) of 336 women in the clinic follow-up group and 347 (95%) of 364 women in the home-assessment group (difference -2.2%, 95% CI -5.9 to 1.6). One case of haemorrhage occurred in each group (rate of adverse events 0.3% in each group); no other adverse events were noted. Interpretation Home assessment of medical abortion outcome with a low-sensitivity urine pregnancy test is non-inferior to clinic follow-up, and could be introduced instead of a clinic follow-up visit in a low-resource setting.

Levine Family Reunion Members, interviewed by Wendy Miller in September 2009: Transcript

The Levine family held an extensive reunion during the Summer of 2009 during which 29 DVDs of raw material were recorded for use in the creation of a Levine family mini-documentary. Many of these DVDs contain oral history interviews conducted by Wendy Miller, one of the organizers of the reunion. Although these interviews were not designed for historical research, they contain valuable historical information. Some of the family members interviewed include: Ben Arnon (4/5), Marjorie, Stephen, and Michael Kaplan (8), Glenyce Miller Kaplan (starts in 15, continues in 9; separate interview in 13), Burt, Phyllis, and Louis Shiro (9) [Burt Shiro also in 26/27], Myrt and Gordon Wolman (9), Ted and Billy Alfond (10), Barbara and Joan Alfond (10), Susan and Peter Alfond (10), Alice Emory [caregiver for Bibby] (11), Eric Bloom and Stu Cushner (11), Saralee Kaplan Bloom (11), Sarah Miller Arnon (12), Kayla and Jenna Cushner (12), Josh Soros and Eliana Miller-Kaplan (12), Sarah, Wendy, and Julie Miller (starts in 12, continues in 14), Bill Shutzer (13), Maschia and Glicka Kaplan, Sharon Kushner, Dan Hood (13), Gene, Alex, Kate Cohen (14), Ben, Jeremy, Joselyn Arnon (14), Wendy and Julie Miller at the store (15), and Eric Bloom (15).

Windows of opportunities and knowledge networks: implications for the catch-up in developing countries

This document represents a doctoral thesis held under the Brazilian School of Public and Business Administration of Getulio Vargas Foundation (EBAPE/FGV), developed through the elaboration of three articles. The research that resulted in the articles is within the scope of the project entitled “Windows of opportunities and knowledge networks: implications for catch-up in developing countries”, funded by Support Programme for Research and Academic Production of Faculty (ProPesquisa) of Brazilian School of Public and Business Administration (EBAPE) of Getulio Vargas Foundation.

Remission status follow-up in children with juvenile idiopathic arthritis

Objective: To characterize articular and systemic inflammatory activity in juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA), identifying remission status with and without medication.Methods: A total of 165 JIA cases, followed for a mean period of 3.6 years, were reviewed in order to characterize episodes of inactivity and clinical remission on and off medication. The resulting data were analyzed by means of descriptive statistics, survival analysis, by comparison of Kaplan-Meier curves, log rank testing and binary logistic regression;analysis in order to identify predictive factors for remission or persistent activity.Results: One hundred and eight of the cases reviewed fulfilled the inclusion criteria: 57 patients (52.7%) exhibited a total of 71 episodes of inactivity, with a mean of 2.9 years per episode; 36 inactivity episodes (50.7%) resulted in clinical remission off medication, 35% of which were of the persistent oligoarticular subtype. The probability of clinical remission on medication over 2 years was 81, 82, 97 and 83% for cases of persistent oligoarticular, extended oligoarticular, polyarticular and systemicJIA, respectively. The probability of clinical remission off medication 5 years after onset of remission was 40 and 67% for patients with persistent oligoarticular and systemic JIA, respectively. Persistent disease activity was significantly associated with the use of an anti-rheumatic drug combination. Age at JIA onset was the only factor that predicted clinical remission (p = 0.002).Conclusions: In this cohort, the probability of JIA progressing to clinical remission was greater for the persistent oligoarticular and systemic subtypes, when compared with polyarticular cases.