Percentiles de circunferencia de cintura en escolares de Bogotá, Colombia Estudio FUPRECOL

Objetivo: Determinar la distribución por percentiles de la circunferencia de cintura en una población escolar de Bogotá, Colombia, pertenecientes al estudio FUPRECOL. Métodos: Estudio transversal, realizado en 3.005 niños y 2.916 adolescentes de entre 9 y 17,9 años de edad, de Bogotá, Colombia. Se tomaron medidas de peso, talla, circunferencia de cintura, circunferencia de cadera y estado de maduración sexual por auto-reporte. Se calcularon los percentiles (P3, P10, P25, P50, P75, P90 y P97) y curvas centiles según sexo y edad. Se realizó una comparación entre los valores de la circunferencia de cintura observados con estándares internacionales. Resultados: De la población general (n=5.921), el 57,0% eran chicas (promedio de edad 12,7±2,3 años). En la mayoría de los grupos etáreos la circunferencia de cintura de las chicas fue inferior a la de los chicos. El aumento entre el P50-P97 de la circunferencia de cintura , por edad, fue mínimo de 15,7 cm en chicos de 9-9.9 años y de 16,0 cm en las chicas de 11-11.9 años. Al comparar los resultados de este estudio, por grupos de edad y sexo, con trabajos internacionales de niños y adolescentes, el P50 fue inferior al reportado en Perú e Inglaterra a excepción de los trabajos de la India, Venezuela (Mérida), Estados Unidos y España. Conclusiones: Se presentan percentiles de la circunferencia de cintura según edad y sexo que podrán ser usados de referencia en la evaluación del estado nutricional y en la predicción del riesgo cardiovascular desde edades tempranas.

A comparison between feature-based and EM-based contour tracking

Most active-contour methods are based either on maximizing the image contrast under the contour or on minimizing the sum of squared distances between contour and image 'features'. The Marginalized Likelihood Ratio (MLR) contour model uses a contrast-based measure of goodness-of-fit for the contour and thus falls into the first class. The point of departure from previous models consists in marginalizing this contrast measure over unmodelled shape variations. The MLR model naturally leads to the EM Contour algorithm, in which pose optimization is carried out by iterated least-squares, as in feature-based contour methods. The difference with respect to other feature-based algorithms is that the EM Contour algorithm minimizes squared distances from Bayes least-squares (marginalized) estimates of contour locations, rather than from 'strongest features' in the neighborhood of the contour. Within the framework of the MLR model, alternatives to the EM algorithm can also be derived: one of these alternatives is the empirical-information method. Tracking experiments demonstrate the robustness of pose estimates given by the MLR model, and support the theoretical expectation that the EM Contour algorithm is more robust than either feature-based methods or the empirical-information method. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Can sentiment surveys pre-empt real estate market activities?

We evaluate a number of real estate sentiment indices to ascertain current and forward-looking information content that may be useful for forecasting the demand and supply activities. Our focus lies on sector-specific surveys targeting the players from the supply-side of both residential and non-residential real estate markets. Analyzing the dynamic relationships within a Vector Auto-Regression (VAR) framework, we test the efficacy of these indices by comparing them with other coincident indicators in predicting real estate returns. Overall, our analysis suggests that sentiment indicators convey important information which should be embedded in the modeling exercise to predict real estate market returns. Generally, sentiment indices show better information content than broad economic indicators. The goodness of fit of our models is higher for the residential market than for the non-residential real estate sector. The impulse responses, in general, conform to our theoretical expectations. Variance decompositions and out-of-sample predictions generally show desired contribution and reasonable improvement respectively, thus upholding our hypothesis. Quite remarkably, consistent with the theory, the predictability swings when we look through different phases of the cycle. This perhaps suggests that, e.g. during recessions, market players’ expectations may be more accurate predictor of the future performances, conceivably indicating a ‘negative’ information processing bias and thus conforming to the precautionary motive of consumer behaviour.

Random number generators for the generalized Birnbaum-Saunders distribution

The generalized Birnbaum-Saunders distribution pertains to a class of lifetime models including both lighter and heavier tailed distributions. This model adapts well to lifetime data, even when outliers exist, and has other good theoretical properties and application perspectives. However, statistical inference tools may not exist in closed form for this model. Hence, simulation and numerical studies are needed, which require a random number generator. Three different ways to generate observations from this model are considered here. These generators are compared by utilizing a goodness-of-fit procedure as well as their effectiveness in predicting the true parameter values by using Monte Carlo simulations. This goodness-of-fit procedure may also be used as an estimation method. The quality of this estimation method is studied here. Finally, through a real data set, the generalized and classical Birnbaum-Saunders models are compared by using this estimation method.

An R implementation for generalized Birnbaum-Saunders distributions

The Birnbaum-Saunders (BS) model is a positively skewed statistical distribution that has received great attention in recent decades. A generalized version of this model was derived based on symmetrical distributions in the real line named the generalized BS (GBS) distribution. The R package named gbs was developed to analyze data from GBS models. This package contains probabilistic and reliability indicators and random number generators from GBS distributions. Parameter estimates for censored and uncensored data can also be obtained by means of likelihood methods from the gbs package. Goodness-of-fit and diagnostic methods were also implemented in this package in order to check the suitability of the GBS models. in this article, the capabilities and features of the gbs package are illustrated by using simulated and real data sets. Shape and reliability analyses for GBS models are presented. A simulation study for evaluating the quality and sensitivity of the estimation method developed in the package is provided and discussed. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Hypothesis testing in an errors-in-variables model with heteroscedastic measurement errors

In many epidemiological studies it is common to resort to regression models relating incidence of a disease and its risk factors. The main goal of this paper is to consider inference on such models with error-prone observations and variances of the measurement errors changing across observations. We suppose that the observations follow a bivariate normal distribution and the measurement errors are normally distributed. Aggregate data allow the estimation of the error variances. Maximum likelihood estimates are computed numerically via the EM algorithm. Consistent estimation of the asymptotic variance of the maximum likelihood estimators is also discussed. Test statistics are proposed for testing hypotheses of interest. Further, we implement a simple graphical device that enables an assessment of the model`s goodness of fit. Results of simulations concerning the properties of the test statistics are reported. The approach is illustrated with data from the WHO MONICA Project on cardiovascular disease. Copyright (C) 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Generalized Birnbaum-Saunders distributions applied to air pollutant concentration

The generalized Birnbaum-Saunders (GBS) distribution is a new class of positively skewed models with lighter and heavier tails than the traditional Birnbaum-Saunders (BS) distribution, which is largely applied to study lifetimes. However, the theoretical argument and the interesting properties of the GBS model have made its application possible beyond the lifetime analysis. The aim of this paper is to present the GBS distribution as a useful model for describing pollution data and deriving its positive and negative moments. Based on these moments, we develop estimation and goodness-of-fit methods. Also, some properties of the proposed estimators useful for developing asymptotic inference are presented. Finally, an application with real data from Environmental Sciences is given to illustrate the methodology developed. This example shows that the empirical fit of the GBS distribution to the data is very good. Thus, the GBS model is appropriate for describing air pollutant concentration data, which produces better results than the lognormal model when the administrative target is determined for abating air pollution. Copyright (c) 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The beta Laplace distribution

The Laplace distribution is one of the earliest distributions in probability theory. For the first time, based on this distribution, we propose the so-called beta Laplace distribution, which extends the Laplace distribution. Various structural properties of the new distribution are derived, including expansions for its moments, moment generating function, moments of the order statistics, and so forth. We discuss maximum likelihood estimation of the model parameters and derive the observed information matrix. The usefulness of the new model is illustrated by means of a real data set. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A fuzzy rule-based decision support system for Duodopa treatment in Parkinson

A decision support system (DSS) was implemented based on a fuzzy logic inference system (FIS) to provide assistance in dose alteration of Duodopa infusion in patients with advanced Parkinson’s disease, using data from motor state assessments and dosage. Three-tier architecture with an object oriented approach was used. The DSS has a web enabled graphical user interface that presents alerts indicating non optimal dosage and states, new recommendations, namely typical advice with typical dose and statistical measurements. One data set was used for design and tuning of the FIS and another data set was used for evaluating performance compared with actual given dose. Overall goodness-of-fit for the new patients (design data) was 0.65 and for the ongoing patients (evaluation data) 0.98. User evaluation is now ongoing. The system could work as an assistant to clinical staff for Duodopa treatment in advanced Parkinson’s disease.

PokerMapper: : mapping executive functions, poker playing ability and responsible gambling in online environments

Research objectives Poker and responsible gambling both entail the use of the executive functions (EF), which are higher-level cognitive abilities. The main objective of this work was to assess if online poker players of different ability show different performances in their EF and if so, which functions are the most discriminating ones. The secondary objective was to assess if the EF performance can predict the quality of gambling, according to the Gambling Related Cognition Scale (GRCS), the South Oaks Gambling Screen (SOGS) and the Problem Gambling Severity Index (PGSI). Sample and methods The study design consisted of two stages: 46 Italian active players (41m, 5f; age 32±7,1ys; education 14,8±3ys) fulfilled the PGSI in a secure IT web system and uploaded their own hand history files, which were anonymized and then evaluated by two poker experts. 36 of these players (31m, 5f; age 33±7,3ys; education 15±3ys) accepted to take part in the second stage: the administration of an extensive neuropsychological test battery by a blinded trained professional. To answer the main research question we collected all final and intermediate scores of the EF tests on each player together with the scoring on the playing ability. To answer the secondary research question, we referred to GRCS, PGSI and SOGS scores.  We determined which variables that are good predictors of the playing ability score using statistical techniques able to deal with many regressors and few observations (LASSO, best subset algorithms and CART). In this context information criteria and cross-validation errors play a key role for the selection of the relevant regressors, while significance testing and goodness-of-fit measures can lead to wrong conclusions.   Preliminary findings We found significant predictors of the poker ability score in various tests. In particular, there are good predictors 1) in some Wisconsin Card Sorting Test items that measure flexibility in choosing strategy of problem-solving, strategic planning, modulating impulsive responding, goal setting and self-monitoring, 2) in those Cognitive Estimates Test variables related to deductive reasoning, problem solving, development of an appropriate strategy and self-monitoring, 3) in the Emotional Quotient Inventory Short (EQ-i:S) Stress Management score, composed by the Stress Tolerance and Impulse Control scores, and in the Interpersonal score (Empathy, Social Responsibility, Interpersonal Relationship). As for the quality of gambling, some EQ-i:S scales scores provide the best predictors: General Mood for the PGSI; Intrapersonal (Self-Regard; Emotional Self-Awareness, Assertiveness, Independence, Self-Actualization) and Adaptability  (Reality Testing, Flexibility, Problem Solving) for the SOGS, Adaptability for the GRCS. Implications for the field Through PokerMapper we gathered knowledge and evaluated the feasibility of the construction of short tasks/card games in online poker environments for profiling users’ executive functions. These card games will be part of an IT system able to dynamically profile EF and provide players with a feedback on their expected performance and ability to gamble responsibly in that particular moment. The implementation of such system in existing gambling platforms could lead to an effective proactive tool for supporting responsible gambling. 

A metodologia de análise de dados espaciais aplicada a plantas forrageiras

Dois experimentos e um levantamento por amostragem foram analisados no contexto de dados espaciais. Os experimentos foram delineados em blocos completos casualizados sendo que no experimento um (EXP 1) foram avaliados oito cultivares de trevo branco, sendo estudadas as variáveis Matéria Seca Total (MST) e Matéria Seca de Gramíneas (MSGRAM) e no experimento dois (EXP 2) 20 cultivares de espécies forrageiras, onde foi estudada a variável Percentagem de Implantação (%IMPL). As variáveis foram analisadas no contexto de modelos mistos, sendo modelada a variabilidade espacial através de semivariogramas exponencias, esféricos e gaussianos. Verificou-se uma diminuição em média de 19% e 14% do Coeficiente de Variação (CV) das medias dos cultivares, e uma diminuição em média de 24,6% e 33,3% nos erros padrões dos contrastes ortogonais propostos em MST e MSGRAM. No levantamento por amostragem, estudou-se a associação espacial em Aristida laevis (Nees) Kunth , Paspalum notatum Fl e Demodium incanum DC, amostrados em uma transecção fixa de quadros contiguos, a quatro tamanhos de unidades amostrais (0,1x0,1m; 0,1x0,3m; 0,1x0,5m; e 0,1x1,0m). Nas espécies Aristida laevis (Nees) Kunth e Paspalum notatum Fl, existiu um bom ajuste dos semivariogramas a tamanhos menores das unidades amostrais, diminuíndo quando a unidade amostral foi maior. Desmodium incanum DC apresentou comportamento contrario, ajustando melhor os semivariogramas a tamanhos maiores das unidades amostrais.

As competências essenciais dos profissionais em vendas de bens perecíveis: um modelo genérico de competências

Esta tese estuda as competências essenciais requeridas dos profissionais em vendas de bens perecíveis diante das mudanças ambientais e novas estratégias de relacionamento entre as indústrias de alimentação e seus canais de marketing. Há revisões teóricas sobre marketing e venda pessoal no lado da Administração e sobre competências no lado da Psicologia. Da revisão teórica foram selecionadas 16 competências chave para compor um dicionário, convenientes ao atual contexto de relacionamento entre comprador e vendedor. A pesquisa foi conduzida entre participantes de comitês do Movimento ECR Brasil, funcionários de supermercados e de indústrias de alimentação (n = 192). Empregaram-se as técnicas estatísticas da análise fatorial exploratória e da análise fatorial confirmatória e o modelo teórico foi gerado com três dimensões - suporte à competitividade, relacionamento eficaz e integração operacional - abrangendo 12 competências essenciais. Foram testadas as validades convergente, discriminante e nomológica dos constructos do modelo teórico. Quanto às medidas de ajustamento global do modelo teórico mais o índice esperado de validação cruzada (ECVI) foi possível constatar que o modelo demonstrou consistência com os dados e teve uma boa aproximação da população (X² = 68,15, DF = 51, p = 0,054, RMSEA = 0,042). A avaliação dos resultados do modelo de medidas revelou evidência parcial quanto à validade dos constructos e baixa fidedignidade quanto aos indicadores do modelo teórico.

Distribuição espacial de Dilobopterus costalimai young (Hemiptera: Cicadellidae) em citros na região de Taquaritinga, SP

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Comparação de alguns modelos matemáticos para ajuste à curva de lactação média de um rebanho da raça Caracu

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Comparação de alguns modelos matemáticos para o ajuste às curvas de lactação individuais de vacas da raça Caracu

Foram ajustadas 7239 curvas de lactação de vacas Caracu, controladas semanalmente entre os anos de 1978 a 1988, pertencentes à Fazenda Chiqueirão, Poços de Caldas, MG. As funções utilizadas foram a linear hiperbólica (FLH), a quadrática logarítmica (FQL), a gama incompleta (FGI) e a polinomial inversa (FPI). Os parâmetros foram estimados por meio de regressões não lineares, usando-se processos iterativos. A verificação da qualidade do ajuste baseou-se no coeficiente de determinação ajustado (R²A), no teste de Durbin-Watson (DW) e nas médias e desvios-padrão estimados para os parâmetros e funções dos parâmetros dos modelos. Para a curva média, os R²A foram superiores a 0,90 para todas as funções. Bons ajustes, baseados nos R²A>0,80 foram obtidos, respectivamente, por 25,2%, 39,1%, 31,1% e 28,4% das lactações ajustadas pelas funções FLH, FQL, FGI e FPI. de acordo com o teste de DW, bons ajustes foram proporcionados para 29,4% das lactações ajustadas pela FLH, 54,9% pela FQL, 34,9% pela FGI e 29,6% pela FPI. Para ambos os critérios, a FQL foi superior às demais funções, indicando grande variação nas formas das curvas de lactação geradas pelos ajustes individuais. Curvas atípicas foram estimadas pelas funções, com picos ocorrendo antes do parto e algumas vezes após o término da lactação. Todas as funções apresentaram problemas quando ajustaram dados individuais.