O desenvolvimento do conceito de probabilidade em pré-adolescentes e adolescentes

Este trabalho, baseado na teoria de Jean Piaget sobre o desenvolvimento do pensamento adolescente, visa continuar a mesma linha de investigação no que se refere à aquisição do conceito de probabilidade. O conceito de probabilidade na teoria piagetiana representando a intercepção do real e do possível, foi submetido, neste trabalho, a uma análise crítica e a um projeto de verificação experimental. Em termos teóricos, a crítica orientou-se para a relação entre os canais sensoriais receptores de informação e a organização do nível formal que permite elaborar relações de probabilidade. Importante papel foi atribuído ao estudo da manipulação - expressão direta da ação em seus níveis primordiais - como fator determinante de elaboração específica nas relações de probabilidade. Uma segunda vertente sociogênica do problema foi analisada em termos do nível sócio-econômico como fator que influencia o desenvolvimento do pensamento formal e especificamente a aquisição do conceito de probabilidade. Em termos de verificação experimental, constatou se a possibilidade de se definirem diversos estágios de desenvolvimento, chegando-se a classificar, de modo geral, os sujeitos em: aqueles que ainda não possuem habilidade de pensamento para solução de problema de probabilidade, aqueles que já apresentam tal habilidade, porém, são incapazes de generalização, e outros, em menor parte, que têm estabelecidas as estruturas operatórias do período lógico formal. Dentre estes grupos somente o último faz uso sistemático de estratégias corretas e corresponde aos sujeitos adolescentes do sexo masculino. Isto mostra que existe uma diferença nos resultados devido às diferenças sexuais a favor do sexo masculino e que a capacidade de lidar com relações probabilísticas se torna mais organizada e estruturada com o avanço da idade dos sujeitos. As variáveis ambientais exercem influência no rendimento do sujeito, os resultados variam de acordo com o meio socio econômico, favorecendo os de nível superior, isto é, permitindo-lhes um desenvolvimento normal.

A New Boson with a Mass of 125 GeV Observed with the CMS Experiment at the Large Hadron Collider

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Mac protocols for linear wireless (sensor) networks

Wireless sensor networks (WSNs) consist of a large number of sensor nodes, characterized by low power constraint, limited transmission range and limited computational capabilities [1][2].The cost of these devices is constantly decreasing, making it possible to use a large number of sensor devices in a wide array of commercial, environmental, military, and healthcare fields. Some of these applications involve placing the sensors evenly spaced on a straight line for example in roads, bridges, tunnels, water catchments and water pipelines, city drainages, oil and gas pipelines etc., making a special class of these networks which we define as a Linear Wireless Network (LWN). In LWNs, data transmission happens hop by hop from the source to the destination, through a route composed of multiple relays. The peculiarity of the topology of LWNs, motivates the design of specialized protocols, taking advantage of the linearity of such networks, in order to increase reliability, communication efficiency, energy savings, network lifetime and to minimize the end-to-end delay [3]. In this thesis a novel contention based Medium Access Control (MAC) protocol called L-CSMA, specifically devised for LWNs is presented. The basic idea of L-CSMA is to assign different priorities to nodes based on their position along the line. The priority is assigned in terms of sensing duration, whereby nodes closer to the destination are assigned shorter sensing time compared to the rest of the nodes and hence higher priority. This mechanism speeds up the transmission of packets which are already in the path, making transmission flow more efficient. Using NS-3 simulator, the performance of L-CSMA in terms of packets success rate, that is, the percentage of packets that reach destination, and throughput are compared with that of IEEE 802.15.4 MAC protocol, de-facto standard for wireless sensor networks. In general, L-CSMA outperforms the IEEE 802.15.4 MAC protocol.

Estimation of a probability in inverse binomial sampling under normalized linear-linear and inverse-linear loss

Sequential estimation of the success probability p in inverse binomial sampling is considered in this paper. For any estimator pˆ , its quality is measured by the risk associated with normalized loss functions of linear-linear or inverse-linear form. These functions are possibly asymmetric, with arbitrary slope parameters a and b for pˆ

p , respectively. Interest in these functions is motivated by their significance and potential uses, which are briefly discussed. Estimators are given for which the risk has an asymptotic value as p→0, and which guarantee that, for any p∈(0,1), the risk is lower than its asymptotic value. This allows selecting the required number of successes, r, to meet a prescribed quality irrespective of the unknown p. In addition, the proposed estimators are shown to be approximately minimax when a/b does not deviate too much from 1, and asymptotically minimax as r→∞ when a=b.

Estimation of a probability in inverse binomial sampling under normalized linear-linear and inverse-linear loss

Sequential estimation of the success probability $p$ in inverse binomial sampling is considered in this paper. For any estimator $\hatvap$, its quality is measured by the risk associated with normalized loss functions of linear-linear or inverse-linear form. These functions are possibly asymmetric, with arbitrary slope parameters $a$ and $b$ for $\hatvap < p$ and $\hatvap > p$ respectively. Interest in these functions is motivated by their significance and potential uses, which are briefly discussed. Estimators are given for which the risk has an asymptotic value as $p \rightarrow 0$, and which guarantee that, for any $p \in (0,1)$, the risk is lower than its asymptotic value. This allows selecting the required number of successes, $\nnum$, to meet a prescribed quality irrespective of the unknown $p$. In addition, the proposed estimators are shown to be approximately minimax when $a/b$ does not deviate too much from $1$, and asymptotically minimax as $\nnum \rightarrow \infty$ when $a=b$.

Bare-tape scaling laws for de-orbit missions in a space debris environment

El entorno espacial actual hay un gran numero de micro-meteoritos y basura espacial generada por el hombre, lo cual plantea un riesgo para la seguridad de las operaciones en el espacio. La situación se agrava continuamente a causa de las colisiones de basura espacial en órbita, y los nuevos lanzamientos de satélites. Una parte significativa de esta basura son satélites muertos, y fragmentos de satélites resultantes de explosiones y colisiones de objetos en órbita. La mitigación de este problema se ha convertido en un tema de preocupación prioritario para todas las instituciones que participan en operaciones espaciales. Entre las soluciones existentes, las amarras electrodinámicas (EDT) proporcionan un eficiente dispositivo para el rápido de-orbitado de los satélites en órbita terrestre baja (LEO), al final de su vida útil. El campo de investigación de las amarras electrodinámicas (EDT) ha sido muy fructífero desde los años 70. Gracias a estudios teóricos, y a misiones para la demostración del funcionamiento de las amarras en órbita, esta tecnología se ha desarrollado muy rápidamente en las últimas décadas. Durante este período de investigación, se han identificado y superado múltiples problemas técnicos de diversa índole. Gran parte del funcionamiento básico del sistema EDT depende de su capacidad de supervivencia ante los micro-meteoritos y la basura espacial. Una amarra puede ser cortada completamente por una partícula cuando ésta tiene un diámetro mínimo. En caso de corte debido al impacto de partículas, una amarra en sí misma, podría ser un riesgo para otros satélites en funcionamiento. Por desgracia, tras varias demostraciones en órbita, no se ha podido concluir que este problema sea importante para el funcionamiento del sistema. En esta tesis, se presenta un análisis teórico de la capacidad de supervivencia de las amarras en el espacio. Este estudio demuestra las ventajas de las amarras de sección rectangular (cinta), en cuanto a la probabilidad de supervivencia durante la misión, frente a las amarras convencionales (cables de sección circular). Debido a su particular geometría (longitud mucho mayor que la sección transversal), una amarra puede tener un riesgo relativamente alto de ser cortado por un único impacto con una partícula de pequeñas dimensiones. Un cálculo analítico de la tasa de impactos fatales para una amarra cilindrica y de tipo cinta de igual longitud y masa, considerando el flujo de partículas de basura espacial del modelo ORDEM2000 de la NASA, muestra mayor probabilidad de supervivencia para las cintas. Dicho análisis ha sido comparado con un cálculo numérico empleando los modelos de flujo el ORDEM2000 y el MASTER2005 de ESA. Además se muestra que, para igual tiempo en órbita, una cinta tiene una probabilidad de supervivencia un orden y medio de magnitud mayor que una amarra cilindrica con igual masa y longitud. Por otra parte, de-orbitar una cinta desde una cierta altitud, es mucho más rápido, debido a su mayor perímetro que le permite capturar más corriente. Este es un factor adicional que incrementa la probabilidad de supervivencia de la cinta, al estar menos tiempo expuesta a los posibles impactos de basura espacial. Por este motivo, se puede afirmar finalmente y en sentido práctico, que la capacidad de supervivencia de la cinta es bastante alta, en comparación con la de la amarra cilindrica. El segundo objetivo de este trabajo, consiste en la elaboración de un modelo analítico, mejorando la aproximación del flujo de ORDEM2000 y MASTER2009, que permite calcular con precisión, la tasa de impacto fatal al año para una cinta en un rango de altitudes e inclinaciones, en lugar de unas condiciones particulares. Se obtiene el numero de corte por un cierto tiempo en función de la geometría de la cinta y propiedades de la órbita. Para las mismas condiciones, el modelo analítico, se compara con los resultados obtenidos del análisis numérico. Este modelo escalable ha sido esencial para la optimización del diseño de la amarra para las misiones de de-orbitado de los satélites, variando la masa del satélite y la altitud inicial de la órbita. El modelo de supervivencia se ha utilizado para construir una función objetivo con el fin de optimizar el diseño de amarras. La función objectivo es el producto del cociente entre la masa de la amarra y la del satélite y el numero de corte por un cierto tiempo. Combinando el modelo de supervivencia con una ecuación dinámica de la amarra donde aparece la fuerza de Lorentz, se elimina el tiempo y se escribe la función objetivo como función de la geometría de la cinta y las propietades de la órbita. Este modelo de optimización, condujo al desarrollo de un software, que esta en proceso de registro por parte de la UPM. La etapa final de este estudio, consiste en la estimación del número de impactos fatales, en una cinta, utilizando por primera vez una ecuación de límite balístico experimental. Esta ecuación ha sido desarollada para cintas, y permite representar los efectos tanto de la velocidad de impacto como el ángulo de impacto. Los resultados obtenidos demuestran que la cinta es altamente resistente a los impactos de basura espacial, y para una cinta con una sección transversal definida, el número de impactos críticos debidos a partículas no rastreables es significativamente menor. ABSTRACT The current space environment, consisting of man-made debris and tiny meteoroids, poses a risk to safe operations in space, and the situation is continuously deteriorating due to in-orbit debris collisions and to new satellite launches. Among these debris a significant portion is due to dead satellites and fragments of satellites resulted from explosions and in-orbit collisions. Mitigation of space debris has become an issue of first concern for all the institutions involved in space operations. Bare electrodynamic tethers (EDT) can provide an efficient mechanism for rapid de-orbiting of defunct satellites from low Earth orbit (LEO) at end of life. The research on EDT has been a fruitful field since the 70’s. Thanks to both theoretical studies and in orbit demonstration missions, this technology has been developed very fast in the following decades. During this period, several technical issues were identified and overcome. The core functionality of EDT system greatly depends on their survivability to the micrometeoroids and orbital debris, and a tether can become itself a kind of debris for other operating satellites in case of cutoff due to particle impact; however, this very issue is still inconclusive and conflicting after having a number of space demonstrations. A tether can be completely cut by debris having some minimal diameter. This thesis presents a theoretical analysis of the survivability of tethers in space. The study demonstrates the advantages of tape tethers over conventional round wires particularly on the survivability during the mission. Because of its particular geometry (length very much larger than cross-sectional dimensions), a tether may have a relatively high risk of being severed by the single impact of small debris. As a first approach to the problem, survival probability has been compared for a round and a tape tether of equal mass and length. The rates of fatal impact of orbital debris on round and tape tether, evaluated with an analytical approximation to debris flux modeled by NASA’s ORDEM2000, shows much higher survival probability for tapes. A comparative numerical analysis using debris flux model ORDEM2000 and ESA’s MASTER2005 shows good agreement with the analytical result. It also shows that, for a given time in orbit, a tape has a probability of survival of about one and a half orders of magnitude higher than a round tether of equal mass and length. Because de-orbiting from a given altitude is much faster for the tape due to its larger perimeter, its probability of survival in a practical sense is quite high. As the next step, an analytical model derived in this work allows to calculate accurately the fatal impact rate per year for a tape tether. The model uses power laws for debris-size ranges, in both ORDEM2000 and MASTER2009 debris flux models, to calculate tape tether survivability at different LEO altitudes. The analytical model, which depends on tape dimensions (width, thickness) and orbital parameters (inclinations, altitudes) is then compared with fully numerical results for different orbit inclinations, altitudes and tape width for both ORDEM2000 and MASTER2009 flux data. This scalable model not only estimates the fatal impact count but has proved essential in optimizing tether design for satellite de-orbit missions varying satellite mass and initial orbital altitude and inclination. Within the frame of this dissertation, a simple analysis has been finally presented, showing the scalable property of tape tether, thanks to the survivability model developed, that allows analyze and compare de-orbit performance for a large range of satellite mass and orbit properties. The work explicitly shows the product of tether-to-satellite mass-ratio and fatal impact count as a function of tether geometry and orbital parameters. Combining the tether dynamic equation involving Lorentz drag with space debris impact survivability model, eliminates time from the expression. Hence the product, is independent of tether de-orbit history and just depends on mission constraints and tether length, width and thickness. This optimization model finally led to the development of a friendly software tool named BETsMA, currently in process of registration by UPM. For the final step, an estimation of fatal impact rate on a tape tether has been done, using for the first time an experimental ballistic limit equation that was derived for tapes and accounts for the effects of both the impact velocity and impact angle. It is shown that tape tethers are highly resistant to space debris impacts and considering a tape tether with a defined cross section, the number of critical events due to impact with non-trackable debris is always significantly low.

Bayesian classification with Gaussian processes

We consider the problem of assigning an input vector bfx to one of m classes by predicting P(c|bfx) for c = 1, ldots, m. For a two-class problem, the probability of class 1 given bfx is estimated by s(y(bfx)), where s(y) = 1/(1 + e^-y). A Gaussian process prior is placed on y(bfx), and is combined with the training data to obtain predictions for new bfx points. We provide a Bayesian treatment, integrating over uncertainty in y and in the parameters that control the Gaussian process prior; the necessary integration over y is carried out using Laplace's approximation. The method is generalized to multi-class problems (m >2) using the softmax function. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the method on a number of datasets.

Bayesian classification with Gaussian processes

We consider the problem of assigning an input vector to one of m classes by predicting P(c|x) for c=1,...,m. For a two-class problem, the probability of class one given x is estimated by s(y(x)), where s(y)=1/(1+e-y). A Gaussian process prior is placed on y(x), and is combined with the training data to obtain predictions for new x points. We provide a Bayesian treatment, integrating over uncertainty in y and in the parameters that control the Gaussian process prior the necessary integration over y is carried out using Laplace's approximation. The method is generalized to multiclass problems (m>2) using the softmax function. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the method on a number of datasets.

Propagação in vitro de barueiro (Dipteryx alata Vog.)

Savannah is the second biome in biodiversity in Brazil, presenting great vegetation endemism. Dipteryx alata Vog. (Fabaceae), native from this biome, is an economically important species, with an incipient market due to the lack of commercial plantations. This highlights the need to develop and provide the basis for the domestication of this species. Thus, this study determined the best conditions for in vitro establishment, multiplication, elongation and rooting of stem tips of D. alata plantlets grown vitro. Two culture media (MS and WPM) were evaluated in different salt concentrations (25, 50, 75 and 100%) for plantlet establishment. Four concentrations of 6– Benzylaminopurine (BAP) (0, 1, 2, 3 and 4 mg L-1) amended with 0.25 mg L-1 naphthalene-acetic acid (NAA) were studied for multiplication. Simultaneous elongation and rooting were studied with four concentrations of NAA (0, 1, 2, 3 and 4 mg L-1) together with 0.5 mg L-1 IBA. The variables analyzed were: shoot length (CPA), root length (CP), fresh matter (MF), dry matter (MSC), stem diameter (DC) and number of leaves (NF), 120 days after inoculation, with the exception of number of shoots, which was evaluated in the multiplication stage only. The medium MS at the original salt concentration (100%) was effective for the in vitro establishment of E. alata, resulting in greater root length (27.65 cm) and number of leaves per plantlet (26.0). The concentration of 4 mg L-1 BAP was the best one for multiplication; however, greater concentrations can boost multiplication. The effect of NAA and IBA were noticeable on in vitro elongation and rooting, with best CPA (3.14 cm) and CR (15.84 cm). Therefore, it is possible to state that the medium MS increases the success probability of in vitro establishment of stem tips of Dipteryx alata. NAA concentrations below 3 mg L-1 were favorable for in vitro development of the species, with essential characteristics for acclimatization success|.

Efficient entanglement distillation without quantum memory

Entanglement distribution between distant parties is an essential component to most quantum communication protocols. Unfortunately, decoherence effects such as phase noise in optical fibres are known to demolish entanglement. Iterative (multistep) entanglement distillation protocols have long been proposed to overcome decoherence, but their probabilistic nature makes them inefficient since the success probability decays exponentially with the number of steps. Quantum memories have been contemplated to make entanglement distillation practical, but suitable quantum memories are not realised to date. Here, we present the theory for an efficient iterative entanglement distillation protocol without quantum memories and provide a proof-of-principle experimental demonstration. The scheme is applied to phase-diffused two-mode-squeezed states and proven to distil entanglement for up to three iteration steps. The data are indistinguishable from those that an efficient scheme using quantum memories would produce. Since our protocol includes the final measurement it is particularly promising for enhancing continuous-variable quantum key distribution.

Sales manager problem resolution styles:measure development and an examination of their salesperson-related consequences

Personal selling and sales management play a critical role in the short and long term success of the firm, and have thus received substantial academic interest since the 1970s. Sales research has examined the role of the sales manager in some depth, defining a number of key technical and interpersonal roles which sales managers have in influencing sales force effectiveness. However, one aspect of sales management which appears to remain unexplored is that of their resolution of salesperson-related problems. This study represents the first attempt to address this gap by reporting on the conceptual and empirical development of an instrument designed to measure sales managers' problem resolution styles. A comprehensive literature review and qualitative research study identified three key constructs relating to sales managers' problem resolution styles. The three constructs identified were termed; sales manager willingness to respond, sales manager caring, and sales manager aggressiveness. Building on this, existing literature was used to develop a conceptual model of salesperson-specific consequences of the three problem resolution style constructs. The quantitative phase of the study consisted of a mail survey of UK salespeople, achieving a total sample of 140 fully usable responses. Rigorous statistical assessment of the sales manager problem resolution style measures was undertaken, and construct validity examined. Following this, the conceptual model was tested using latent variable path analysis. The results for the model were encouraging overall, and also with regard to the individual hypotheses. Sales manager problem resolution styles were found individually to have significant impacts on the salesperson-specific variables of role ambiguity, emotional exhaustion, job satisfaction, organisational commitment and organisational citizenship behaviours. The findings, theoretical and managerial implications, limitations and directions for future research are discussed.

A new ambiguity acceptance test threshold determination method with controllable failure rate

The ambiguity acceptance test is an important quality control procedure in high precision GNSS data processing. Although the ambiguity acceptance test methods have been extensively investigated, its threshold determine method is still not well understood. Currently, the threshold is determined with the empirical approach or the fixed failure rate (FF-) approach. The empirical approach is simple but lacking in theoretical basis, while the FF-approach is theoretical rigorous but computationally demanding. Hence, the key of the threshold determination problem is how to efficiently determine the threshold in a reasonable way. In this study, a new threshold determination method named threshold function method is proposed to reduce the complexity of the FF-approach. The threshold function method simplifies the FF-approach by a modeling procedure and an approximation procedure. The modeling procedure uses a rational function model to describe the relationship between the FF-difference test threshold and the integer least-squares (ILS) success rate. The approximation procedure replaces the ILS success rate with the easy-to-calculate integer bootstrapping (IB) success rate. Corresponding modeling error and approximation error are analysed with simulation data to avoid nuisance biases and unrealistic stochastic model impact. The results indicate the proposed method can greatly simplify the FF-approach without introducing significant modeling error. The threshold function method makes the fixed failure rate threshold determination method feasible for real-time applications.

Distribution of Healthcare resources II.Study and Comparison of a Linear Programming Problem and its Dual. Resolution and Evaluation of a Practical Case and its Programming using Excel and Win QSB.

[EN]This research had as primary objective to model different types of problems using linear programming and apply different methods so as to find an adequate solution to them. To achieve this objective, a linear programming problem and its dual were studied and compared. For that, linear programming techniques were provided and an introduction of the duality theory was given, analyzing the dual problem and the duality theorems. Then, a general economic interpretation was given and different optimal dual variables like shadow prices were studied through the next practical case: An aesthetic surgery hospital wanted to organize its monthly waiting list of four types of surgeries to maximize its daily income. To solve this practical case, we modelled the linear programming problem following the relationships between the primal problem and its dual. Additionally, we solved the dual problem graphically, and then we found the optimal solution of the practical case posed through its dual, following the different theorems of the duality theory. Moreover, how Complementary Slackness can help to solve linear programming problems was studied. To facilitate the solution Solver application of Excel and Win QSB programme were used.

Restoration of images and 3D data to higher resolution by deconvolution with sparsity regularization

Image convolution is conventionally approximated by the LTI discrete model. It is well recognized that the higher the sampling rate, the better is the approximation. However sometimes images or 3D data are only available at a lower sampling rate due to physical constraints of the imaging system. In this paper, we model the under-sampled observation as the result of combining convolution and subsampling. Because the wavelet coefficients of piecewise smooth images tend to be sparse and well modelled by tree-like structures, we propose the L0 reweighted-L2 minimization (L0RL2 ) algorithm to solve this problem. This promotes model-based sparsity by minimizing the reweighted L2 norm, which approximates the L0 norm, and by enforcing a tree model over the weights. We test the algorithm on 3 examples: a simple ring, the cameraman image and a 3D microscope dataset; and show that good results can be obtained. © 2010 IEEE.

A study of nurses' perceptions of and participation in the resolution of treatment dilemmas for critically ill newborns

This study was an exploratory investigation of variables which are associated with neonatal intensive care nurses' perceptions of and participation in life-sustaining treatment decisions for critically ill newborns. The primary purpose of the research was to examine the extent to which assessment of infants' physical and mental prognoses, parents' preferences regarding treatment, and legal consequences of non-treatment influence nurses' recommendations about life-saving treatment decisions for handicapped newborns. Secondly, the research explored the extent and nature of nurses' reported participation in the resolution of treatment dilemmas for these critically ill newborns. The framework of the study draws upon the work of Crane (1977), Blum (1980), and Pearlman (1982) who have explored the sociological context of decision-making with critical care patients.^ Participants in the study were a volunteer sample of eighty-three registered nurses who were currently working in neonatal intensive care units in five large urban hospitals in Texas. Data were collected through the use of intensive interviews and case study questionnaires. Results from the study indicate that physical and mental prognoses as well as parent preferences and concerns about legal liability are related to nurses' treatment recommendations, but their levels of significance vary according to the type of handicapping condition and whether the treatment questions are posed in terms of initiating aggressive therapy or withdrawing aggressive therapy.^ The majority of nurses reported that the extent of their participation in formal decision-making regarding handicapped newborns was fairly minimal although they provide much of the definitive data used to make decisions by physicians and parents. There was substantial evidence that nurse respondents perceive their primary role as advocates for critically ill newborns, and believe that their involvement in the resolution of treatment dilemmas should be increased. ^