Comparative Analysis between Statistical and Artificial Intelligence Models in Business Failure Prediction

A growing number of predicting corporate failure models has emerged since 60s. Economic and social consequences of business failure can be dramatic, thus it is not surprise that the issue has been of growing interest in academic research as well as in business context. The main purpose of this study is to compare the predictive ability of five developed models based on three statistical techniques (Discriminant Analysis, Logit and Probit) and two models based on Artificial Intelligence (Neural Networks and Rough Sets). The five models were employed to a dataset of 420 non-bankrupt firms and 125 bankrupt firms belonging to the textile and clothing industry, over the period 2003–09. Results show that all the models performed well, with an overall correct classification level higher than 90%, and a type II error always less than 2%. The type I error increases as we move away from the year prior to failure. Our models contribute to the discussion of corporate financial distress causes. Moreover it can be used to assist decisions of creditors, investors and auditors. Additionally, this research can be of great contribution to devisers of national economic policies that aim to reduce industrial unemployment.

How logrolling can explain the failure of the government coalition in Brazil

This article presents an analysis of the behavior of federal representatives in the Brazilian House of Representatives between 1995 and 1998, when a series of constitutional amendments were presented by the president to be voted on by Congress. The objective is to show that the lack of a stable government coalition resulted in costs to society that were not anticipated by the government. The study argues that a logroll - a trade of votes - was the strategy used by the government in order to guarantee the number of votes necessary to approve the amendments. This strategy created a vicious system in which representatives would only vote with the government if they had benefits in return.

Wetting response of KrF laser ablated polyimide surfaces

The wettability of polyimide surfaces microstructured using KrF laser radiation at fluences above the material ablation threshold was studied by static contact angle measurements. The laser-treated surfaces present a morphology consisting of conical features whose dimensions and areal density depend on the fluence. The effect of these parameters on the surface apparent contact angle depends on the wetting regime. When wetting occurs in the homogeneous regime, the apparent contact angle of the treated surfaces increases with the radiation fluence because the cone dimensions increase. In contrast, when wetting occurs in the heterogeneous regime, the apparent contact angle increases with the radiation fluence because the average distance between cones increases. The apparent water contact angle of the laser-treated surfaces can reach values as high as 162 degrees, as compared to 75 degrees for virgin polyimide.

Multi-scaled femtosecond laser structuring of stationary titanium surfaces

The evolution of the topography of titanium surfaces treated with femtosecond laser radiation in stationary conditions as a function of radiation fluence and number of laser pulses is investigated. Depending on the processing parameters, ripples, microcolumns, wavy or smooth surfaces can be obtained. The ripples predominate for fluences near the damage threshold of titanium (0.2+/-0.1) J/cm(2), while microcolumns form during the first 200 pulses for fluences between (0.6+/-0.2) and (1.7+/-0.2) J/cm(2). A wavy topography develops for fluences and number of pulses higher than (1.7+/-0.2) J/cm(2) and 300, respectively. A bimodal surface topography consisting of surface ripples overlapping a microcolumnar topography can be obtained if the surfaces are firstly treated to create microcolumns followed by laser treatment with a lower fluence near the ablation threshold of the material, in order to generate periodic ripple

Health related quality of life in patients with refractory chronic heart failure undergoing cardiac resynchronization: type of therapeutic response

The benefits of cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT) in the health-related quality of life (HRQL) are largely demonstrated in selected patients with severe congestive heart failure (CHF). However, the differences between responders and non-responders, with regard to the effect of CRT in the various dimensions that constitute HRQL are still a matter of discussion. Objective: To evaluate the impact of CRT on the HRQL of patients with CHF refractory to optimal pharmacological therapy, within 6 months after CRT. Methods: 43 patients, submitted to successful implantation of CRT, were evaluated in hospital just before intervention and in the outpatient clinic within 6 months after CRT. HRQL was analyzed based on the Kansas City Cardiomyopathy Questionnaire (KCCQ). Patients were classified as super-responders (ejection fraction of left ventricle - LVEF - ≥45% post-CRT), n=15, responders (sustained improvement in functional class and LVEF increased by 15%), n=19, and non-responders (no clinical or LVEF improvement), n=9. Results: In the group of super-responders, CRT was associated with an improvement in HRQL for the various fields and sums assessed (ρ<0.05); in responders, CRT has been associated with an improvement of HRQL in the various fields and sums, except in the self-efficacy dimension (ρ<0.05); in non-responders, CRT was not associated with improvement of HRQL. Conclusion: In a population with severe CHF undergoing CRT, the patients with clinical and echocardiographic positive response, obtained a favorable impact in all dimensions of HRQL, while the group without response to CRT showed no improvement. These data reinforces the importance of HRQL as a multidimensional tool for assessment of benefits in clinical practice.

Evaluating the quality of life in patients with refractory chronic heart failure undergoing cardiac resynchronization regarding the type of therapeutic response

The benefits of cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT) in the quality of life have been largely demonstrated in selected patients with severe congestive heart failure (CHF). However, the differences between responders and non-responders, with regard to the effect of CRT in the various dimensions of quality of life is still a matter of discussion. Objective: to evaluate the impact of CRT on the quality of life of patients with CHF refractory to optimal pharmacological therapy, within 6 months after CRT.

Relation of happiness, hope and affection with quality of life in patients with heart failure

Introduction: Meeting the actual role of positive psychology, begins to be recognized the relation of positive variables with health. Objective: To know the relation of happiness, hope and affection with quality of life in individuals with heart failure. Population and Methodology: 128 individuals with heart failure, 98 men and 30 women, 61.9±12,1 years of age, 6,6±3,9 years in school and 74,2% retired because of this disease. 56,3% were in Class III of New York Heart Association, with poor left ventricular ejection fraction (25,3±6,2%). The clinical history was of 9,4±8,5 years for this heart disease and had at least one hospitalization due to heart failure with 51,6% having ischemic heart disease.

Happiness, hope and affection as predictors of quality of life and functionality of individuals with heart failure at 3 month follow up

Introduction: Meeting the actual role of positive psychology, begins to be recognized the contribution of positive variables in health outcomes. Objective: To know the contribution of happiness, hope and affection individually and as a whole in the quality of life and functionality of individuals with heart failure. Population and Methodology: 128 individuals with heart failure, 98 men and 30 women, 61.9±12,1 years of age, 6,6±3,9 years of school and 74,2% retired because of this disease. 56,3% were in Class III of New York Heart Association, with poor left ventricular ejection fraction (25,3±6,2%). The clinical history was of 9,4±8,5 years for this heart disease and had at least one hospitalization due to heart failure with 51,6% having ischemic heart disease.

Quality of life in dilated cardiomyopathy with refractory chronic heart failure undergoing devices implantation

Heart failure is the final stage of most of cardiac diseases. It is a complex syndrome in which the patients should have the following features: symptoms of heart failure, typically shortness of breath at rest or during exertion, and/or fatigue; signs of fluid retention such as pulmonary congestion or ankle swelling; and objective evidence of an abnormality of the structure or function of the heart at rest. This progressive syndrome as a high incidence and prevalence and poor prognosis: four-year mortality is around 50% with 40% of the patients admitted to hospital dying or readmitted within a year. With ageing, many patients will develop chronic heart failure, which, because of its symptoms, patient’s awareness of their risk of dying, and the effects of therapy, together with frequent hospitalizations, has considerable impact on patient’s health-related quality of life.

A model to forecast financial failure, in non financial galician SMES

We are concerned with providing more empirical evidence on forecast failure, developing forecast models, and examining the impact of events such as audit reports. A joint consideration of classic financial ratios and relevant external indicators leads us to build a basic prediction model focused in non-financial Galician SMEs. Explanatory variables are relevant financial indicators from the viewpoint of the financial logic and financial failure theory. The paper explores three mathematical models: discriminant analysis, Logit, and linear multivariate regression. We conclude that, even though they both offer high explanatory and predictive abilities, Logit and MDA models should be used and interpreted jointly.

Nematic wetting and filling of crenellated surfaces

We investigate nematic wetting and filling transitions of crenellated surfaces (rectangular gratings) by numerical minimization of the Landau-de Gennes free energy as a function of the anchoring strength, for a wide range of the surface geometrical parameters: depth, width, and separation of the crenels. We have found a rich phase behavior that depends in detail on the combination of the surface parameters. By comparison to simple fluids, which undergo a continuous filling or unbending transition, where the surface changes from a dry to a filled state, followed by a wetting or unbinding transition, where the thickness of the adsorbed fluid becomes macroscopic and the interface unbinds from the surface, nematics at crenellated surfaces reveal an intriguingly rich behavior: in shallow crenels only wetting is observed, while in deep crenels, only filling transitions occur; for intermediate surface geometrical parameters, a new class of filled states is found, characterized by bent isotropic-nematic interfaces, which persist for surfaces structured on large scales, compared to the nematic correlation length. The global phase diagram displays two wet and four filled states, all separated by first-order transitions. For crenels in the intermediate regime re-entrant filling transitions driven by the anchoring strength are observed.

Complex fluids at complex surfaces simply complicated

We study wetting and filling of patterned surfaces by a nematic liquid crystal. We focus on three important classes of periodic surfaces: triangular, sinusoidal and rectangular. The results highlight the similarities and differences of nematic wetting of these surfaces and wetting by simple fluids. The interplay of geometry, surface and elastic energies can lead to the suppression of either filling or wetting. The periodic rectangular surface displays re-entrant transitions, with a sequence dry-filled-wet-filled, in the relevant region of parameter space.

Dynamic power- and failure-aware cloud resources allocation for Sets of independent tasks

Cloud computing is increasingly being adopted in different scenarios, like social networking, business applications, scientific experiments, etc. Relying in virtualization technology, the construction of these computing environments targets improvements in the infrastructure, such as power-efficiency and fulfillment of users’ SLA specifications. The methodology usually applied is packing all the virtual machines on the proper physical servers. However, failure occurrences in these networked computing systems can induce substantial negative impact on system performance, deviating the system from ours initial objectives. In this work, we propose adapted algorithms to dynamically map virtual machines to physical hosts, in order to improve cloud infrastructure power-efficiency, with low impact on users’ required performance. Our decision making algorithms leverage proactive fault-tolerance techniques to deal with systems failures, allied with virtual machine technology to share nodes resources in an accurately and controlled manner. The results indicate that our algorithms perform better targeting power-efficiency and SLA fulfillment, in face of cloud infrastructure failures.

Wetting behaviour of femtosecond laser textured Ti-6Al-4V surfaces

The aim of the present work was to investigate the wetting behaviour of biomedical grade Ti-6Al-4V alloy surfaces textured by a femtosecond laser treatment. The material was treated in ambient atmosphere using an Yb: KYW chirped-pulse-regenerative amplification laser with a wavelength of 1030 nm and a pulse duration of 500 fs. Four main types of surface textures were obtained depending on the processing parameters and laser treatment method. These textures consist of: (1) nanoscale laser-induced periodic surface structures (LIPSS); (2) nanopillars; (3) a bimodal roughness distribution texture formed of LIPSS overlapping microcolumns; (4) a complex texture formed of LIPSS overlapping microcolumns with a periodic variation of the columns size in the laser scanning direction. The wettability of the surfaces was evaluated by the sessile drop method using distilled-deionized (DD) water and Hank's balanced salt solution (HBSS) as testing liquids. The laser treated surfaces present a hydrophilic behaviour as well as a high affinity for the saline solution, with equilibrium contact angles in the ranges 24.1-76.2. for DD water and 8.4-61.8. for HBSS. The wetting behaviour is anisotropic, reflecting the anisotropy of the surface textures. (c) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Surfaces contamination with 5-Fluorouracil in two Portuguese hospitals

During the last years there has been an increasing concern about occupational exposure to cytostatic drugs in hospitals. The first findings on occupational exposures among hospital personnel administering chemotherapy were reported only in 1979. Since then, a great number of studies have been publishing describing possible exposure-related health effects. Consequently, rigorous guidelines for the safe handling of cancer chemotherapeutic agents were devised and the handling facilities in hospitals were extensively improved. However, recent studies developed in European countries revealed detectable amounts of several drugs in surface wipe samples. Dermal absorption after contact with contaminated surfaces can play an important role in exposure to antineoplastic drugs. Therefore, the existence of contamination in workplace surfaces implies an increased risk of exposure for health care workers. Since there is no recent report in Portugal, regarding the occupational exposure to antineoplastic drugs, a study was developed aiming to determine the 5-fluorouracil (5-FU) contamination on work surfaces of two Portuguese hospitals.