Financial Risk Analysis of Portuguese Textile and Tourism Companies

Textile and tourism sectors are two important industries in the Portuguese economy. However, its high exposure to both internal and international economic volatility make the companies operating in these economic sectors particularly vulnerable to economic crises, such as the ones which have been impacting Portugal and the European Union. The objective of this paper is to evaluate and understand the impact of size and age on the financial health of textile and tourism companies, measured by economic indices. An empirical based model is proposed. Its implications are derived and tested on a sample of 4061 Portuguese companies from textile and tourism sectors, during the period 2005-2009. The findings suggest that age has a major impact on the risk of failure, rather than size. Whereas the effect of age is generally positive regarding the financial health of the company, the effect of size is less clear and ultimately depends on the age of the company.

How logrolling can explain the failure of the government coalition in Brazil

This article presents an analysis of the behavior of federal representatives in the Brazilian House of Representatives between 1995 and 1998, when a series of constitutional amendments were presented by the president to be voted on by Congress. The objective is to show that the lack of a stable government coalition resulted in costs to society that were not anticipated by the government. The study argues that a logroll - a trade of votes - was the strategy used by the government in order to guarantee the number of votes necessary to approve the amendments. This strategy created a vicious system in which representatives would only vote with the government if they had benefits in return.

A model to forecast financial failure, in non financial galician SMES

We are concerned with providing more empirical evidence on forecast failure, developing forecast models, and examining the impact of events such as audit reports. A joint consideration of classic financial ratios and relevant external indicators leads us to build a basic prediction model focused in non-financial Galician SMEs. Explanatory variables are relevant financial indicators from the viewpoint of the financial logic and financial failure theory. The paper explores three mathematical models: discriminant analysis, Logit, and linear multivariate regression. We conclude that, even though they both offer high explanatory and predictive abilities, Logit and MDA models should be used and interpreted jointly.

The predominance of M2-polarized macrophages in the stroma of low-hypoxic bladder tumors is associated with BCG immunotherapy failure

OBJECTIVE: Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) immunotherapy is the gold standard treatment for superficial bladder tumors with intermediate/high risk of recurrence or progression. However, approximately 30% of patients fail to respond to the treatment. Effective BCG therapy needs precise activation of the type 1 helper cells immune pathway. Tumor-associated macrophages (TAMs) often assume an immunoregulatory M2 phenotype and may directly interfere with the BCG-induced antitumor immune response. Thus, we aim to clarify the influence of TAMs, in particular of the M2 phenotype in stroma and tumor areas, in BCG treatment outcome. PATIENTS AND METHODS: The study included 99 patients with bladder cancer treated with BCG. Tumors resected before treatment were evaluated using immunohistochemistry for CD68 and CD163 antigens, which identify a lineage macrophage marker and a M2-polarized specific cell surface receptor, respectively. CD68+ and CD163+ macrophages were evaluated within the stroma and tumor areas, and high density of infiltrating cells spots were selected for counting. Hypoxia, an event known to modulate macrophage phenotype, was also assessed through hypoxia induced factor (HIF)-1α expression. RESULTS: Patients in whom BCG failed had high stroma-predominant CD163+ macrophage counts (high stroma but low tumor CD163+ macrophages counts) when compared with the ones with a successful treatment (71% vs. 47%, P = 0.017). Furthermore, patients presenting this phenotype showed decreased recurrence-free survival (log rank, P = 0.008) and a clear 2-fold increased risk of BCG treatment failure was observed in univariate analysis (hazard ratio = 2.343; 95% CI: 1.197-4.587; P = 0.013). Even when adjusted for potential confounders, such as age and therapeutic scheme, multivariate analysis revealed 2.6-fold increased risk of recurrence (hazard ratio = 2.627; 95% CI: 1.340-5.150; P = 0.005). High stroma-predominant CD163+ macrophage counts were also associated with low expression of HIF-1α in tumor areas, whereas high counts of CD163+ in the tumor presented high expression of HIF-1α in tumor nests. CONCLUSIONS: TAMs evaluation using CD163 is a good indicator of BCG treatment failure. Moreover, elevated infiltration of CD163+ macrophages, predominantly in stroma areas but not in the tumor, may be a useful indicator of BCG treatment outcome, possibly owing to its immunosuppressive phenotype.

Cyclosporine versus tacrolimus: cost-effectiveness analysis for renal transplantation in Brazil

OBJECTIVE To analyze the cost-effectiveness of treatment regimens with cyclosporine or tacrolimus, five years after renal transplantation.METHODS This cost-effectiveness analysis was based on historical cohort data obtained between 2000 and 2004 and involved 2,022 patients treated with cyclosporine or tacrolimus, matched 1:1 for gender, age, and type and year of transplantation. Graft survival and the direct costs of medical care obtained from the National Health System (SUS) databases were used as outcome results.RESULTS Most of the patients were women, with a mean age of 36.6 years. The most frequent diagnosis of chronic renal failure was glomerulonephritis/nephritis (27.7%). In five years, the tacrolimus group had an average life expectancy gain of 3.96 years at an annual cost of R$78,360.57 compared with the cyclosporine group with a gain of 4.05 years and an annual cost of R$61,350.44.CONCLUSIONS After matching, the study indicated better survival of patients treated with regimens using tacrolimus. However, regimens containing cyclosporine were more cost-effective.

On the analysis of compensation correctness

One fundamental idea of service-oriented computing is that applications should be developed by composing already available services. Due to the long running nature of service interactions, a main challenge in service composition is ensuring correctness of transaction recovery. In this paper, we use a process calculus suitable for modelling long running transactions with a recovery mechanism based on compensations. Within this setting, we discuss and formally state correctness criteria for compensable processes compositions, assuming that each process is correct with respect to transaction recovery. Under our theory, we formally interpret self-healing compositions, that can detect and recover from faults, as correct compositions of compensable processes. Moreover, we develop an automated verification approach and we apply it to an illustrative case study.

Mechanical behavior and localized failure modes in a porous basalt from the Azores

Basaltic rocks are the main component of the oceanic upper crust, thus of potential interest for water and geothermal resources, storage of CO2 and volcanic edifice stability. In this work, we investigated experimentally the mechanical behavior and the failure modes of a porous basalt, with an initial connected porosity of 18%. Results were acquired under triaxial compression experiments at confining pressure in the range of 25-200 MPa on water saturated samples. In addition, a purely hydrostatic test was also performed to reach the pore collapse critical pressure P*. During hydrostatic loading, our results show that the permeability is highly pressure dependent, which suggests that the permeability is mainly controlled by pre-existing cracks. When the sample is deformed at pressure higher than the pore collapse pressure P*, some very small dilatancy develops due to microcracking, and an increase in permeability is observed. Under triaxial loading, two modes of deformation can be highlighted. At low confining pressure (Pc < 50 MPa), the samples are brittle and shear localization occurs. For confining pressure > 50 MPa, the stress-strain curves are characterized by strain hardening and volumetric compaction. Stress drops are also observed, suggesting that compaction may be localized. The presence of compaction bands is confirmed by our microstructure analysis. In addition, the mechanical data allows us to plot the full yield surface for this porous basalt, which follows an elliptic cap as previously observed in high porosity sandstones and limestones.

The use of the boundary element method in the analysis of single lap joints

The most common techniques for stress analysis/strength prediction of adhesive joints involve analytical or numerical methods such as the Finite Element Method (FEM). However, the Boundary Element Method (BEM) is an alternative numerical technique that has been successfully applied for the solution of a wide variety of engineering problems. This work evaluates the applicability of the boundary elem ent code BEASY as a design tool to analyze adhesive joints. The linearity of peak shear and peel stresses with the applied displacement is studied and compared between BEASY and the analytical model of Frostig et al., considering a bonded single-lap joint under tensile loading. The BEM results are also compared with FEM in terms of stress distributions. To evaluate the mesh convergence of BEASY, the influence of the mesh refinement on peak shear and peel stress distributions is assessed. Joint stress predictions are carried out numerically in BEASY and ABAQUS®, and analytically by the models of Volkersen, Goland, and Reissner and Frostig et al. The failure loads for each model are compared with experimental results. The preparation, processing, and mesh creation times are compared for all models. BEASY results presented a good agreement with the conventional methods.

Strap repairs using embedded patches: numerical analysis and experimental results

Adhesively bonded repairs offer an attractive option for repair of aluminium structures, compared to more traditional methods such as fastening or welding. The single-strap (SS) and double-strap (DS) repairs are very straightforward to execute but stresses in the adhesive layer peak at the overlap ends. The DS repair requires both sides of the damaged structures to be reachable for repair, which is often not possible. In strap repairs, with the patches bonded at the outer surfaces, some limitations emerge such as the weight, aerodynamics and aesthetics. To minimize these effects, SS and DS repairs with embedded patches were evaluated in this work, such that the patches are flush with the adherends. For this purpose, in this work standard SS and DS repairs, and also with the patches embedded in the adherends, were tested under tension to allow the optimization of some repair variables such as the overlap length (LO) and type of adhesive, thus allowing the maximization of the repair strength. The effect of embedding the patch/patches on the fracture modes and failure loads was compared with finite elements (FE) analysis. The FE analysis was performed in ABAQUS® and cohesive zone modelling was used for the simulation of damage onset and growth in the adhesive layer. The comparison with the test data revealed an accurate prediction for all kinds of joints and provided some principles regarding this technique.

Numerical and Experimental Analysis of Balanced and Unbalanced Adhesive Single-Lap Joints between Aluminium Adherends

The single-lap joint is the most commonly used, although it endures significant bending due to the non-collinear load path, which negatively affects its load bearing capabilities. The use of material or geometric changes is widely documented in the literature to reduce this handicap, acting by reduction of peel and shear peak stresses or alterations of the failure mechanism emerging from local modifications. In this work, the effect of using different thickness adherends on the tensile strength of single-lap joints, bonded with a ductile and brittle adhesive, was numerically and experimentally evaluated. The joints were tested under tension for different combinations of adherend thickness. The effect of the adherends thickness mismatch on the stress distributions was also investigated by Finite Elements (FE), which explained the experimental results and the strength prediction of the joints. The numerical study was made by FE and Cohesive Zone Modelling (CZM), which allowed characterizing the entire fracture process. For this purpose, a FE analysis was performed in ABAQUS® considering geometric non-linearities. In the end, a detailed comparative evaluation of unbalanced joints, commonly used in engineering applications, is presented to give an understanding on how modifications in the bonded structures thickness can influence the joint performance.

Fire safety barrier availability analysis

This paper shows several ways to analyse the performance of a safety barrier, depending on the objective to be achieved and present a method to analyse binary components usually present on sensor systems of safety barriers. An application example of a water-based fire system is presented and the Probability of Failure on Demand (PFD) of the sensor system is determined based on the analysis of pressure switches installed in this safety barrier. The knowledge of such information will allow the determination of safety barrier’s availability.

Infective endocarditis (IE) first diagnosed at autopsy: analysis of 31 cases in Ribeirão Preto, Brazil

Thirty one infective endocarditis (IE) fatal cases whose diagnosis was first obtained at autopsy were studied. The clinical data of these patients (Group 1) showed significant differences compared to other 141 IE cases (Group 2). The average age of 53 years in Group 1 patients was 18 years higher than that of Group 2. The Group 1 patients had a low frequency of IE predisposing heart disease. Both patient groups presented fever (about 87%), but a significant low frequency of cardiac murmur (25.8%) was observed in Group 1 patients and echocardiography tests were performed in only 16.1%, suggesting that IE diagnosis was not suspected. Likewise, although most Group 1 patients appeared with severe acute illness, they did not present the classic IE clinical presentation. Blood cultures were performed in only 64.5% of the Group 1 patients. However, bacteria were isolated in 70% of these blood cultures and Staphylococcus aureus was isolated in 71.4%. The bacteria attacked mitral and aortic valves. Complications such as embolizations and cardiac failure occurred in almost half of the cases and they also presented with infections of the lungs, urinary tract, and central nervous system. Medical procedures were performed in practically all fatal cases whose diagnosis was first obtained at autopsy. Sepsis occurred in about half of the patients and it was followed by shock in more than 25%. This form of IE must be suspected in mature and in old febrile hospitalized patients having infection predisposing diseases, embolization, and suffering medical procedures.

The Prognostic Impact of Renal Failure in Patients with ST-Segment Elevation Acute Myocardial Infarction

INTRODUCTION: Renal insufficiency (RI) is associated with higher morbidity and mortality in patients (P) with coronary artery disease and in P submitted to angioplasty. In ST-segment elevation acute myocardial infarction (STEAMI), this impact has not been well demonstrated. AIM: To evaluate the impact of RI in P with STEAMI. METHODS: We evaluated 160 P admitted with STEAMI, mean age of 62+/-14 years, 76% male. We determined creatinine levels on admission. RI was defined as a level >1.5 mg/dl. Analysis of clinical, electrocardiographic and laboratory variables was performed, in relation to the endpoint defined as the occurrence of death at 30-day follow-up. RESULTS: There were 16 deaths (10%) at 30-day follow-up. P with RI (n=21) were older (68+/-11 vs 61+/-14 years, p<0.001), more often had diabetes (57 vs 24 %, p=0.004) and presented more often with Killip class > or =2 (57 vs 12%, p<0.001). The use of statins (62 vs 83%, p=0.05) and beta-blockers (24 vs 65%, p<0.001) was lower in P with RI. Mortality was higher in RI P (62 vs 2%, p<0.001). The univariate predictors of death were age > or =75 years, diabetes, Killip class > or =2 on admission, RI, non-use of statins and beta-blockers and use of diuretics. In multivariate analysis, independent predictors of death at 30 days were RI (HR 29.6, 95% CI 6.3-139.9, p<0.001) and non-use of beta-blockers (HR 0.13, 95% CI 0.02-1.01, p=0.01). CONCLUSION: In P admitted for STEAMI, the presence of RI was an independent predictor of death at 30 days whereas the usage of beta-blockers was protective.

Entropy Analysis of Industrial Accident Data Series

Complex industrial plants exhibit multiple interactions among smaller parts and with human operators. Failure in one part can propagate across subsystem boundaries causing a serious disaster. This paper analyzes the industrial accident data series in the perspective of dynamical systems. First, we process real world data and show that the statistics of the number of fatalities reveal features that are well described by power law (PL) distributions. For early years, the data reveal double PL behavior, while, for more recent time periods, a single PL fits better into the experimental data. Second, we analyze the entropy of the data series statistics over time. Third, we use the Kullback–Leibler divergence to compare the empirical data and multidimensional scaling (MDS) techniques for data analysis and visualization. Entropy-based analysis is adopted to assess complexity, having the advantage of yielding a single parameter to express relationships between the data. The classical and the generalized (fractional) entropy and Kullback–Leibler divergence are used. The generalized measures allow a clear identification of patterns embedded in the data.

Failure of nitric oxide production by macrophages and decrease in CD4+ T cells in oral paracoccidioidomycosis: possible mechanisms that permit local fungal multiplication

Paracoccidioidomycosis is a chronic granulomatous disease that induces a specific inflammatory and immune response. The participation of nitric oxide (NO), a product of the inducible nitric oxide synthase enzyme (iNOS), as an important fungicidal molecule against Paracoccidioides brasiliensis has been demonstrated. In order to further characterize the Oral Paracoccidioidomycosis (OP), we undertook an immunohistochemical study of iNOS+, CD45RO+, CD3+, CD8+, CD20+, CD68+ cells and mast cells. The samples were distributed in groups according to the number of viable fungi per mm². Our results showed weak immunolabeling for iNOS in the multinucleated giant cells (MNGC) and in most of the mononuclear (MN) cells, and the proportion of iNOS+ MN/MNGC cells in the OP were comparable to Control (clinically healthy oral tissues). Additionally, our analysis revealed a similarity in the number of CD4+ cells between the Control and the OP groups with higher numbers of fungi. These findings suggest that a low expression of iNOS and a decrease in the CD4+ T cells in OP may represent possible mechanisms that permit the local fungal multiplication and maintenance of active oral lesions.