Estimating the volume of tephra deposits: a new simple strategy

Volume determination of tephra deposits is necessary for the assessment of the dynamics and hazards of explosive volcanoes. Several methods have been proposed during the past 40 years that include the analysis of crystal concentration of large pumices, integrations of various thinning relationships, and the inversion of field observations using analytical and computational models. Regardless of their strong dependence on tephra-deposit exposure and distribution of isomass/isopach contours, empirical integrations of deposit thinning trends still represent the most widely adopted strategy due to their practical and fast application. The most recent methods involve the best fitting of thinning data using various exponential seg- ments or a power-law curve on semilog plots of thickness (or mass/area) versus square root of isopach area. The exponential method is mainly sensitive to the number and the choice of straight segments, whereas the power-law method can better reproduce the natural thinning of tephra deposits but is strongly sensitive to the proximal or distal extreme of integration. We analyze a large data set of tephra deposits and propose a new empirical method for the deter- mination of tephra-deposit volumes that is based on the integration of the Weibull function. The new method shows a better agreement with observed data, reconciling the debate on the use of the exponential versus power-law method. In fact, the Weibull best fitting only depends on three free parameters, can well reproduce the gradual thinning of tephra deposits, and does not depend on the choice of arbitrary segments or of arbitrary extremes of integration.

Brief communication. Rain effect on the load of tephra deposits

Accumulation of tephra fallout produced during explosive eruptions can cause roof collapses in areas near the volcano, when the weight of the deposit exceeds some threshold value that depends on the quality of buildings. The additional loading of water that remains trapped in the tephra deposits due to rainfall can contribute to increasing the loading of the deposits on the roofs. Here we propose a simple approach to estimate an upper bound for the contribution of rain to the load of pyroclastic deposits that is useful for hazard assessment purposes. As case study we present an application of the method in the area of Naples, Italy, for a reference eruption from Vesuvius volcano.

Multiple routes to mammalian diversity

The radiation of the mammals provides a 165-million-year test case for evolutionary theories of how species occupy and then fill ecological niches. It is widely assumed that species often diverge rapidly early in their evolution, and that this is followed by a longer, drawn-out period of slower evolutionary fine-tuning as natural selection fits organisms into an increasingly occupied niche space1,2. But recent studies have hinted that the process may not be so simple3–5. Here we apply statistical methods that automatically detect temporal shifts in the rate of evolution through time to a comprehensive mammalian phylogeny6 and data set7 of body sizes of 3,185 extant species. Unexpectedly, the majority of mammal species, including two of the most speciose orders (Rodentia and Chiroptera), have no history of substantial and sustained increases in the rates of evolution. Instead, a subset of the mammals has experienced an explosive increase (between 10- and 52-fold) in the rate of evolution along the single branch leading to the common ancestor of their monophyletic group (for example Chiroptera), followed by a quick return to lower or background levels. The remaining species are a taxonomically diverse assemblage showing a significant, sustained increase or decrease in their rates of evolution. These results necessarily decouple morphological diversification from speciation and suggest that the processes that give rise to the morphological diversity of a class of animals are far more free to vary than previously considered. Niches do not seem to fill up, and diversity seems to arise whenever, wherever and at whatever rate it is advantageous.

Klaus - an exceptional winter storm over northern Iberia and southern France

The synoptic evolution and impacts of storm ‘Klaus’ that affected Europe on 23–24 January 2009 are assessed. Klaus was the costliest weather hazard event worldwide during 2009. Peak wind gusts reached 55ms-1 (107kn), accompanied by heavy rain, snow and flooding across Northern Iberia and southern France. Klaus underwent explosive development between the Azores and the Iberian Peninsula at an unusually low latitude. This development was supported by an extended and intense polar jet across the North Atlantic Basin, strong upper-air divergence associated with a second jet streak and an extraordinary export of tropical moisture into the genesis region. Copyright © 2011 Royal Meteorological Society

Factors contributing to the development of extreme North Atlantic cyclones and their relationship with the NAO

The occurrence of extreme cyclones is analysed in terms of their relationship to the NAO phase and the dominating environmental variables controlling their intensification. These are latent energy (equivalent potential temperature 850 hPa is used as an indicator), upper-air baroclinicity, horizontal divergence and jet stream strength. Cyclones over the North Atlantic are identified and tracked using a numerical algorithm, permitting a detailed analysis of their life cycles. Extreme cyclones are selected as the 10% most severe in terms of intensity. Investigations focus on the main strengthening phase of each cyclone. The environmental factors are related to the NAO, which affects the location and orientation of the cyclone tracks, thus explaining why extreme cyclones occur more (less) frequently during strong positive (negative) NAO phases. The enhanced number of extreme cyclones in positive NAO phases can be explained by the larger area with suitable growth conditions, which is better aligned with the cyclone tracks and is associated with increased cyclone life time and intensity. Moreover, strong intensification of cyclones is frequently linked to the occurrence of extreme values of growth factors in the immediate vicinity of the cyclone centre. Similar results are found for ECHAM5/OM1 for present day conditions, demonstrating that relationships between the environment factors and cyclones are also valid in the GCM. For future climate conditions (following the SRES A1B scenario), the results are similar, but a small increase of the frequency of extreme values is detected near the cyclone cores. On the other hand, total cyclone numbers decrease by 10% over the North Atlantic. An exception is the region near the British Isles, which features increased track density and intensity of extreme cyclones irrespective of the NAO phase. These changes are associated with an intensified jet stream close to Europe. Moreover, an enhanced frequency of explosive developments over the British Isles is found, leading to more frequent windstorms affecting Europe.

The European storm Kyrill in January 2007: synoptic evolution, meteorological impacts and some considerations with respect to climate change

The synoptic evolution and some meteorological impacts of the European winter storm Kyrill that swept across Western, Central, and Eastern Europe between 17 and 19 January 2007 are investigated. The intensity and large storm damage associated with Kyrill is explained based on synoptic and mesoscale environmental storm features, as well as on comparisons to previous storms. Kyrill appeared on weather maps over the US state of Arkansas about four days before it hit Europe. It underwent an explosive intensification over the Western North Atlantic Ocean while crossing a very intense zonal polar jet stream. A superposition of several favourable meteorological conditions west of the British Isles caused a further deepening of the storm when it started to affect Western Europe. Evidence is provided that a favourable alignment of three polar jet streaks and a dry air intrusion over the occlusion and cold fronts were causal factors in maintaining Kyrill's low pressure very far into Eastern Europe. Kyrill, like many other strong European winter storms, was embedded in a pre-existing, anomalously wide, north-south mean sea-level pressure (MSLP) gradient field. In addition to the range of gusts that might be expected from the synoptic-scale pressure field, mesoscale features associated with convective overturning at the cold front are suggested as the likely causes for the extremely damaging peak gusts observed at many lowland stations during the passage of Kyrill's cold front. Compared to other storms, Kyrill was by far not the most intense system in terms of core pressure and circulation anomaly. However, the system moved into a pre-existing strong MSLP gradient located over Central Europe which extended into Eastern Europe. This fact is considered determinant for the anomalously large area affected by Kyrill. Additionally, considerations of windiness in climate change simulations using two state-of-the-art regional climate models driven by ECHAM5 indicate that not only Central, but also Eastern Central Europe may be affected by higher surface wind speeds at the end of the 21st century. These changes are partially associated with the increased pressure gradient over Europe which is identified in the ECHAM5 simulations. Thus, with respect to the area affected, as well as to the synoptic and mesoscale storm features, it is proposed that Kyrill may serve as an interesting study case to assess future storm impacts.

Near-Earth initiation of a terrestrial substorm

Despite the characterization of the auroral substorm more than 40 years ago, controversy still surrounds the processes triggering substorm onset initiation. That stretching of the Earth's magnetotail following the addition of new nightside magnetic flux from dayside reconnection powers the substorm is well understood; the trigger for explosive energy release at substorm expansion phase onset is not. Using ground-based data sets with unprecedented combined spatial and temporal coverage, we report the discovery of new localized and contemporaneous magnetic wave and small azimuthal scale auroral signature of substorm onset. These local auroral arc undulations and magnetic field signatures rapidly evolve on second time scales for several minutes in advance of the release of the auroral surge. We also present evidence from a conjugate geosynchronous satellite of the concurrent magnetic onset in space as the onset of magnetic pulsations in the ionosphere, to within technique error. Throughout this time period, the more poleward arcs that correspond to the auroral oval which maps to the central plasma sheet remain undisturbed. There is good evidence that flows from the midtail crossing the plasma sheet can generate north-south auroral structures, yet no such auroral forms are seen in this event. Our observations present a severe challenge to the standard hypothesis that magnetic reconnection in stretched magnetotail fields triggers onset, indicating substorm expansion phase initiation occurs on field lines that are close to the Earth, as bounded by observations at geosynchronous orbit and in the conjugate ionosphere.

Storing and manipulating environmental big data with JASMIN

JASMIN is a super-data-cluster designed to provide a high-performance high-volume data analysis environment for the UK environmental science community. Thus far JASMIN has been used primarily by the atmospheric science and earth observation communities, both to support their direct scientific workflow, and the curation of data products in the STFC Centre for Environmental Data Archival (CEDA). Initial JASMIN configuration and first experiences are reported here. Useful improvements in scientific workflow are presented. It is clear from the explosive growth in stored data and use that there was a pent up demand for a suitable big-data analysis environment. This demand is not yet satisfied, in part because JASMIN does not yet have enough compute, the storage is fully allocated, and not all software needs are met. Plans to address these constraints are introduced.

Evidence for an association with type 2 diabetes mellitus at the PPARG locus in a South Indian population

Peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor-gamma2 (PPARG2) is a nuclear hormone receptor of ligand-dependent transcription factor involved in adipogenesis and a molecular target of the insulin sensitizers thiazolidinediones. We addressed the question of whether the 3 variants (-1279G/A, Pro12Ala, and His478His) in the PPARG2 gene are associated with type 2 diabetes mellitus and its related traits in a South Indian population. The study subjects (1000 type 2 diabetes mellitus and 1000 normal-glucose-tolerant subjects) were chosen randomly from the Chennai Urban Rural Epidemiology Study, an ongoing population-based study in southern India. The variants were screened by single-stranded conformational variant, direct sequencing, and restriction fragment length polymorphism. Linkage disequilibrium was estimated from the estimates of haplotypic frequencies. The -1279G/A, Pro12Ala, and His478His variants of the PPARG2 gene were not associated with type 2 diabetes mellitus. However, the 2-loci analyses showed that, in the presence of Pro/Pro genotype of the Pro12Ala variant, the -1279G/A promoter variant showed increased susceptibility to type 2 diabetes mellitus (odds ratio, 2.092; 95% confidence interval, 1.22-3.59; P = .008), whereas in the presence of 12Ala allele, the -1279G/A showed a protective effect against type 2 diabetes mellitus (odds ratio, 0.270; 95% confidence interval, 0.15-0.49; P < .0001). The 3-loci haplotype analysis showed that the A-Ala-T (-1279G/A-Pro12Ala-His478His) haplotype was associated with a reduced risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus (P < .0001). Although our data indicate that the PPARG2 gene variants, independently, have no association with type 2 diabetes mellitus, the 2-loci genotype analysis involving -1279G/A and Pro12Ala variants and the 3-loci haplotype analysis have shown a significant association with type 2 diabetes mellitus in this South Indian population.

Climate models without pre-industrial volcanic forcing underestimate historical ocean thermal expansion

Episodic explosive volcanic eruptions are a natural part of the climate system but are often omitted from atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) preindustrial spin-up and control experiments. This omission imposes a negative bias on ocean heat uptake in simulations of the historical period. In models of a range of complexity, we find that global-mean sea level rise due to thermal expansion during the last ∼ 150 years is consequently underestimated by 5–30 mm, which is a substantial proportion of the model mean of 50 mm in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 AOGCMs with anthropogenic forcing only, and is therefore important in accounting for 20th century sea level rise. We test and recommend a procedure for removing the bias.

Secondary cyclogenesis along an occluded front leading to damaging wind gusts: windstorm Kyrill, January 2007

Windstorm Kyrill affected large parts of Europe in January 2007 and caused widespread havoc and loss of life. In this study the formation of a secondary cyclone, Kyill II, along the occluded front of the mature cyclone Kyrill and the occurrence of severe wind gusts as Kyrill II passed over Germany are investigated with the help of high-resolution regional climate model simulations. Kyrill underwent an explosive cyclogenesis south of Greenland as the storm crossed polewards of an intense upper-level jet stream. Later in its life cycle secondary cyclogenesis occurred just west of the British Isles. The formation of Kyrill II along the occluded front was associated (a) with frontolytic strain and (b) with strong diabatic heating in combination with a developing upper-level shortwave trough. Sensitivity studies with reduced latent heat release feature a similar development but a weaker secondary cyclone, revealing the importance of diabatic processes during the formation of Kyrill II. Kyrill II moved further towards Europe and its development was favored by a split jet structure aloft, which maintained the cyclone’s exceptionally deep core pressure (below 965 hPa) for at least 36 hours. The occurrence of hurricane force winds related to the strong cold front over North and Central Germany is analyzed using convection-permitting simulations. The lower troposphere exhibits conditional instability, a turbulent flow and evaporative cooling. Simulation at high spatio-temporal resolution suggests that the downward mixing of high momentum (the wind speed at 875 hPa widely exceeded 45 m s-1) accounts for widespread severe surface wind gusts, which is in agreement with observed widespread losses.

Small global-mean cooling due to volcanic radiative forcing

In both the observational record and atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) simulations of the last ∼∼ 150 years, short-lived negative radiative forcing due to volcanic aerosol, following explosive eruptions, causes sudden global-mean cooling of up to ∼∼ 0.3 K. This is about five times smaller than expected from the transient climate response parameter (TCRP, K of global-mean surface air temperature change per W m−2 of radiative forcing increase) evaluated under atmospheric CO2 concentration increasing at 1 % yr−1. Using the step model (Good et al. in Geophys Res Lett 38:L01703, 2011. doi:10.​1029/​2010GL045208), we confirm the previous finding (Held et al. in J Clim 23:2418–2427, 2010. doi:10.​1175/​2009JCLI3466.​1) that the main reason for the discrepancy is the damping of the response to short-lived forcing by the thermal inertia of the upper ocean. Although the step model includes this effect, it still overestimates the volcanic cooling simulated by AOGCMs by about 60 %. We show that this remaining discrepancy can be explained by the magnitude of the volcanic forcing, which may be smaller in AOGCMs (by 30 % for the HadCM3 AOGCM) than in off-line calculations that do not account for rapid cloud adjustment, and the climate sensitivity parameter, which may be smaller than for increasing CO2 (40 % smaller than for 4 × CO2 in HadCM3).

Sensitivity of OMI SO2 measurements to variable eruptive behaviour at Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat

Since 2004, the satellite-borne Ozone Mapping Instrument (OMI) has observed sulphur dioxide (SO2) plumes during both quiescence and effusive eruptive activity at Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat. On average, OMI detected a SO2 plume 4-6 times more frequently during effusive periods than during quiescence in the 2008-2010 period. The increased ability of OMI to detect SO2 during eruptive periods is mainly due to an increase in plume altitude rather than a higher SO2 emission rate. Three styles of eruptive activity cause thermal lofting of gases (Vulcanian explosions; pyroclastic flows; a hot lava dome) and the resultant plume altitudes are estimated from observations and models. Most lofting plumes from Soufrière Hills are derived from hot domes and pyroclastic flows. Although Vulcanian explosions produced the largest plumes, some produced only negligible SO2 signals detected by OMI. OMI is most valuable for monitoring purposes at this volcano during periods of lava dome growth and during explosive activity.

Exploiting thermally-reversible chemistry for controlling the crosslinking of polymer networks

High explosives are highly sensitive to accidental detonation by impact, fire, shrapnel and small arms fire. This sensitivity can be reduced by storing the energetic material within a rubbery polymer matrix and are known as plastic bonded explosives (PBX). The current procedure used to manufacture PBX involves mixing the energetic material with a hydroxy-functionalised aliphatic polymer. Upon the addition of an isocyanate crosslinker an immediate polymerisation occurs and thus the rapidly curing mixture must be used to fill the missile or shells, referred to as ‘stores’. This process can lead to poor distribution of the crosslinker resulting in the formation of an inhomogeneously crosslinked matrix and the formation of voids. One solution to this problem involves containing the crosslinker within polyurethane microcapsules that are uniformly dispersed in the explosive-polymer mixture. Upon the application of a stimulus the crosslinker can be released from the microcapsules and the formation of a uniformly crosslinked PBX achieved. Herein is reported the design and synthesis of polyurethane microcapsules that release isocyanate crosslinkers when desired using a thermal stimulus. This has been achieved by exploiting the thermally-reversible nature of oxime-urethane and Diels-Alder adducts that have been incorporated into the shell wall of the microcapsules. An alternative approach to controlling the polymerisation of PBX materials has also been achieved using thermally-reversible blocked isocyanates that regenerate the isocyanate crosslinker when exposed to heat.

Influence of pH on the phototransformation process of PhotogemA (R)

PhotogemA (R) is a hematoporphyrin derivative that has been used as a photosensitizer in experimental and clinical Photodynamic Therapy (PDT) in Brazil. Photosensitizers are degraded under illumination. This process, usually called photobleaching, can be monitored by decreasing in fluorescence intensities and includes the following photoprocesses: photodegradation, phototransformation, and photorelocalization. Photobleaching of hematoporphyrin-type sensitizers during illumination in aqueous solution is related not only to photodegradation but is also followed by the formation of photoproducts with a new fluorescence band at around 640-650 nm and with increased light absorption in the red spectral region at 640 nm. In this study, the influence of pH on the phototransformation process was investigated. PhotogemA (R) solutions, 40 mu g/ml, were irradiated at 514 nm with intensity of 100 mW/cm(2) for 20 min with different pH environments. The controls were performed with the samples in the absence of light. The PhotogemA (R) photodegradation is dependent on the pH. The behavior of photodegradation and photoproducts formation (monitored at 640 nm) is distinct and depends on the photosensitizer concentration. The processes of degradation and photoproducts formation were monitored with Photogemin the concentration of 40 mu g/mL since that demonstrated the best visualization of both processes. While below pH 5 the photodegradation occurred, there was no detectable presence of photoproducts. The increase of pH led to increase of photoproducts formation rate with photodegradation reaching the highest value at pH 10. The increase of photoproducts formation and instability of PhotogemA (R) from pH 6 to pH 10 are in agreement with the desired properties of an ideal photosensitizer since there are significant differences in pH between normal (7.0 < pH < 8.6) and tumor (5.8 < pH < 7.9) tissues. It is important to know the effect of pH in the process of phototransformation (degradation and photoproduct formation) of the molecule since low pH values promotes increase in the proportion of aggregates species in solution and high pH values promotes increase in the proportion of monomeric species. There must be an ideal pH interval which favors the phototransformation process that is correlated with the singlet oxygen formation responsible by the photodynamic effect. These differences in pH between normal and tumor cells can explain the presence of photosensitizers in target tumor cells, making PDT a selective therapy.