Studies on the international effects of real shocks

This doctoral thesis addresses the macroeconomic effects of real shocks in open economies in flexible exchange rate regimes. The first study of this thesis analyses the welfare effects of fiscal policy in a small open economy, where private and government consumption are substitutes in terms of private utility. The main findings are as follows: fiscal policy raises output, bringing it closer to its efficient level, but is not welfare-improving even though government spending directly affects private utility. The main reason for this is that the introduction of useful government spending implies a larger crowding-out effect on private consumption, when compared with the `pure waste' case. Utility decreases since one unit of government consumption yields less utility than one unit of private consumption. The second study of this thesis analyses the question of how the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy in a small open economy depend on optimal intertemporal behaviour. The key result is that the effects of fiscal policy depend on the size of the elasticity of substitution between traded and nontraded goods. In particular, the sign of the current account response to fiscal policy depends on the interplay between the intertemporal elasticity of aggregate consumption and the elasticity of substitution between traded and nontraded goods. The third study analyses the consequences of productive government spending on the international transmission of fiscal policy. A standard result in the New Open Economy Macroeconomics literature is that a fiscal shock depreciates the exchange rate. I demonstrate that the response of the exchange rate depends on the productivity of government spending. If productivity is sufficiently high, a fiscal shock appreciates the exchange rate. It is also shown that the introduction of productive government spending increases both domestic and foreign welfare, when compared with the case where government spending is wasted. The fourth study analyses the question of how the international transmission of technology shocks depends on the specification of nominal rigidities. A growing body of empirical evidence suggests that a positive technology shock leads to a temporary decline in employment. In this study, I demonstrate that the open economy dimension can enhance the ability of sticky price models to account for the evidence. The reasoning is as follows. An improvement in technology appreciates the nominal exchange rate. Under producer-currency pricing, the exchange rate appreciation shifts global demand toward foreign goods away from domestic goods. This causes a temporary decline in domestic employment.

Risk assessment for airborne infectious diseases between natural ventilation and split-system air conditioner in a university classroom

Indoor air quality is a critical factor in the classroom due to high people concentration in a unique space. Indoor air pollutant might increase the chance of both long and short-term health problems among students and staff, reduce the productivity of teachers and degrade the student’s learning environment and comfort. Adequate air distribution strategies may reduce risk of infection in classroom. So, the purpose of air distribution systems in a classroom is not only to maximize conditions for thermal comfort, but also to remove indoor contaminants. Natural ventilation has the potential to play a significant role in achieving improvements in IAQ. The present study compares the risk of airborne infection between Natural Ventilation (opening windows and doors) and a Split-System Air Conditioner in a university classroom. The Wells-Riley model was used to predict the risk of indoor airborne transmission of infectious diseases such as influenza, measles and tuberculosis. For each case, the air exchange rate was measured using a CO2 tracer gas technique. It was found that opening windows and doors provided an air exchange rate of 2.3 air changes/hour (ACH), while with the Split System it was 0.6 ACH. The risk of airborne infection ranged between 4.24 to 30.86 % when using the Natural Ventilation and between 8.99 to 43.19% when using the Split System. The difference of airborne infection risk between the Split System and the Natural Ventilation ranged from 47 to 56%. Opening windows and doors maximize Natural Ventilation so that the risk of airborne contagion is much lower than with Split System.

The channels of monetary policy triggered by central bank actions and statements in the Australian equity market

Owing to the discrete disclosure practices of the Reserve Bank of Australia, this paper provides new evidence on the channels of monetary policy triggered by central bank actions (monetary policy announcements) and statements (explanatory minutes releases), in the Australian equity market. Both monetary policy announcements and explanatory minutes releases are shown to have a significant and comparable impact on the returns and volatility of the Australian equity market. Further, distinct from US and European studies that find strong evidence of the interest rate, bank loan and balance sheet channels and no evidence of the exchange rate channel following central bank actions, this paper finds that monetary policy impacts the Australian equity market via the exchange rate, interest rate and bank loan channels of monetary policy, with only weak evidence of the balance sheet channel of monetary policy. These channels are found to be operating irrespective of the trigger (monetary policy announcements or explanatory minutes releases), though results are somewhat weaker when examining the explanatory minutes releases. These results have important implications for central bank officials and financial market participants alike: by confirming a comparable avenue to affect monetary policy; and providing an explication of its impact on the Australian equity market.

DEPTH: a web server to compute depth and predict small-molecule binding cavities in proteins

Depth measures the extent of atom/residue burial within a protein. It correlates with properties such as protein stability, hydrogen exchange rate, protein-protein interaction hot spots, post-translational modification sites and sequence variability. Our server, DEPTH, accurately computes depth and solvent-accessible surface area (SASA) values. We show that depth can be used to predict small molecule ligand binding cavities in proteins. Often, some of the residues lining a ligand binding cavity are both deep and solvent exposed. Using the depth-SASA pair values for a residue, its likelihood to form part of a small molecule binding cavity is estimated. The parameters of the method were calibrated over a training set of 900 high-resolution X-ray crystal structures of single-domain proteins bound to small molecules (molecular weight < 1.5 KDa). The prediction accuracy of DEPTH is comparable to that of other geometry-based prediction methods including LIGSITE, SURFNET and Pocket-Finder (all with Matthew's correlation coefficient of similar to 0.4) over a testing set of 225 single and multi-chain protein structures. Users have the option of tuning several parameters to detect cavities of different sizes, for example, geometrically flat binding sites. The input to the server is a protein 3D structure in PDB format. The users have the option of tuning the values of four parameters associated with the computation of residue depth and the prediction of binding cavities. The computed depths, SASA and binding cavity predictions are displayed in 2D plots and mapped onto 3D representations of the protein structure using Jmol. Links are provided to download the outputs. Our server is useful for all structural analysis based on residue depth and SASA, such as guiding site-directed mutagenesis experiments and small molecule docking exercises, in the context of protein functional annotation and drug discovery.

Efectos de la política monetaria en un modelo de precios rígidos en distintas monedas

Resumen: En un modelo dinámico, de dos países y con precios rígidos, este trabajo analiza la transmisión de la política monetaria cuando las empresas fijan sus precios en distintas monedas. Siguiendo el modelo de Betts y Devereux (2000) suponemos que las empresas pueden fijar un único precio para el mercado local y extranjero en moneda del país al cual exportan. Algunas empresas segmentan el mercado por país y otras fijan un único precio en su propia moneda o en la del país vecino. Los precios rígidos en moneda del país vecino aumentan la variabilidad del tipo de cambio y reducen los efectos positivos que la política monetaria tiene sobre el consumo y la tasa de interés real, respecto a una situación donde las empresas sólo segmentan el mercado o fijan un único precio en su propia moneda. En ausencia de segmentación de mercado, a mayor número de empresas que fijen su precio en moneda del país vecino, mayor es el efecto positivo que un shock monetario en el país extranjero tiene sobre su bienestar y el del otro, pero es menor en ambos cuando se produce en el país local.

The role of the terms of trade in the trade channel of transmission of oil price shocks

This paper highlights the role of the terms of trade in the trade channel of propagation of oil price shocks both empirically and theoretically. Empirically, I show that oil price shocks have a large, persistent and statistically significant impact on the US terms of trade. Theoretically, I add oil in the model by Corsetti and Pesenti (2005) and analyse under what conditions the terms of trade plays a relevant role in the international transmission of oil price shocks. With nominal price rigidities and full exchange rate pass-through positive oil price shocks depreciate the currency of the oil importing country. The subsequent negative wealth effect adds to the recessive effect of the supply channel and may trongly reduce the consumption in the oil importing country economy. Without exchange rate pass-through oil shocks transmit to the economy only through the supply channel. The model suggests that a change in the exchange rate pass-through might contribute to explain the evidence of a weaker impact of oil price shocks on the macroeconomic activity in recent times.

Las Tecnologías de la Información y la Comunicación en la gestión de tesorería: modelo explicativo

[ES] En el presente trabajo se analiza el uso de las TIC (Tecnologías de la Información y la Comunicación) en las responsabilidades de la gestión de la tesorería, tomando como referencia para su estudio las empresas de la CAPV (Comunidad Autónoma del País Vasco). Los resultados indican que las TIC más utilizadas por las empresas en operaciones financieras son el software financiero, Internet y la banca electrónica. Además, estos resultados han permitido desarrollar un modelo explicativo del uso de las TIC en las principales funciones del tesorero, como son la gestión de cobros y pagos, gestión de la liquidez, previsiones de tesorería a corto plazo, gestión de saldos bancarios en fecha valor, negociación con entidades financieras, gestión de la financiación del déficit de tesorería, gestión de la colocación de puntas de tesorería y gestión de riesgos de tipo de interés y tipo de cambio.

Theory of ozone isotopic effects and various electron transfer reactions

Three separate topics, each stimulated by experiments, are treated theoretically in this dessertation: isotopic effects of ozone, electron transfer at interfaces, and intramolecular directional electron transfer in a supramolecular system.

The strange mass-independent isotope effect for the enrichment of ozone, which has been a puzzle in the literature for some 20 years, and the equally puzzling unconventional strong mass-dependent effect of individual reaction rate constants are studied as different aspects of a symmetry-driven behavior. A statistical (RRKM-based) theory with a hindered-rotor transition state is used. The individual rate constant ratios of recombination reactions at low pressures are calculated using the theory involving (1) small deviation from the statistical density of states for symmetric isotopomers, and (2) weak collisions for deactivation of the vibrationally excited ozone molecules. The weak collision and partitioning among exit channels play major roles in producing the large unconventional isotope effect in "unscrambled" systems. The enrichment studies reflect instead the non-statistical effect in "scrambled" systems. The theoretical results of low-pressure ozone enrichments and individual rate constant ratios obtained from these calculations are consistent with the corresponding experimental results. The isotopic exchange rate constant for the reaction ^(16)O + ^(18)O ^(18)O→+ ^(16)O ^(18)O + ^(18)O provides information on the nature of a variationally determined hindered-rotor transition state using experimental data at 130 K and 300 K. Pressure effects on the recombination rate constant, on the individual rate constant ratios and on the enrichments are also investigated. The theoretical results are consistent with the experimental data. The temperature dependence of the enrichment and rate constant ratios is also discussed, and experimental tests are suggested. The desirability of a more accurate potential energy surface for ozone in the transition state region is also noted.

Electron transfer reactions at semiconductor /liquid interfaces are studied using a tight-binding model for the semiconductors. The slab method and a z-transform method are employed in obtaining the tight-binding electronic structures of semiconductors having surfaces. The maximum electron transfer rate constants at Si/viologen^(2-/+) and InP /Me_(2)Fc^(+/O) interfaces are computed using the tight-binding type calculations for the solid and the extended-Huckel for the coupling to the redox agent at the interface. These electron transfer reactions are also studied using a free electron model for the semiconductor and the redox molecule, where Bardeen's method is adapted to calculate the coupling matrix element between the molecular and semiconductor electronic states. The calculated results for maximum rate constant of the electron transfer from the semiconductor bulk states are compared with the experimentally measured values of Lewis and coworkers, and are in reasonable agreement, without adjusting parameters. In the case of InP /liquid interface, the unusual current vs applied potential behavior is additionally interpreted, in part, by the presence of surface states.

Photoinduced electron transfer reactions in small supramolecular systems, such as 4-aminonaphthalimide compounds, are interesting in that there are, in principle, two alternative pathways (directions) for the electron transfer. The electron transfer, however, is unidirectional, as deduced from pH-dependent fluorescence quenching studies on different compounds. The role of electronic coupling matrix element and the charges in protonation are considered to explain the directionality of the electron transfer and other various results. A related mechanism is proposed to interpret the fluorescence behavior of similar molecules as fluorescent sensors of metal ions.

Repasse cambial reverso: uma avaliação sobre a relação entre taxa de câmbio e IPCA no Brasil (1999-2007)

A presente dissertação discute o repasse cambial para o IPCA na economia brasileira durante o período compreendido entre janeiro de 1999 e dezembro de 2007. A ampla maioria dos trabalhos que versam sobre este tema aborda a redução do repasse após a adoção do regime de metas de inflação e/ou tem como único foco o impacto das desvalorizações cambiais no aumento dos índices de preços. Este trabalho, por outro lado, aborda de maneira explícita o papel da valorização do Real sobre a variação do IPCA no período recente, configurando o que denominamos de repasse cambial reverso. Para tanto, estimamos o repasse cambial por meio de um modelo de vetores auto-regressivos tanto para o referido período (1999-2007), quanto para outros dois recortes temporais: entre janeiro de 1999 e junho 2003 (amostra 1), período no qual se verifica uma tendência de desvalorização cambial e aumento de preços; e de julho de 2003 a dezembro de 2007 (amostra 2), período caracterizado pelo processo inverso, de valorização da taxa de câmbio e de cumprimento das metas de inflação na maioria dos anos. Os principais resultados foram: (i) no longo prazo os coeficientes de repasse cambial para o IPCA para as duas amostras foram superiores àqueles verificados para o período completo; e (ii) o repasse estimado para a amostra 2 foi bem elevado, ainda que inferior àquele obtido para a amostra 1. Estes resultados reforçam o argumento de que a taxa de câmbio desempenhou um papel proeminente no controle da inflação no período 2003-2007.

I. Configurational stability and redistribution equilibria in organomagnesium compounds. II. Redistribution equilibria in organocadmium compounds

I. CONFIGURATIONAL STABILITY AND REDISTRIBUTION EQUILIBRIA IN ORGANOMAGNESIUM COMPOUNDS

The dependence of the rate of inversion of a dialkylmagnesium compound on the solvent has been studied.

Examination of the temperature dependence of the nuclear magnetic resonance spectrum of 1-phenyl-2-propylmagnesium bromide in diethyl ether solution indicates that inversion of configuration at the methylene group of this Grignard reagent occurs with an approximate rate of 2 sec^-1 at room temperature. This is the first example of a rapid inversion rate in a secondary Grignard reagent.

The rates of exchange of alkyl groups between dineopentylmagnesium and di-s-butylmagnesium, bis-(2-methylbutyl)-magnesium and bis-(4, 4-dimethyl-2-pentyl)-magnesium respectively in diethyl ether solution were found to be fast on the nmr time scale. However, the alkyl group exchange rate was found to be slow in a diethyl ether solution of dineopentylmagnesium and bis-(2-methylbutyl)-magnesium containing N, N, N', N'-tetramethylethylenediamine. The unsymmetrical species neopentyl-2-methylbutyl-magnesium was observed at room temperature in the nmr spectrum of the solution containing the diamine.

II. REDISTRIBUTION EQUILIBRIA IN ORGANOCADMIUM COMPOUNDS

The exchange of methyl groups in dimethylcadmium has been studied by nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy. Activation parameters for the methyl group exchange have been measured for a neat sample and for a solution in tetrahydrofuran. The exchange is faster in the basic solvent tetrahydrofuran relative to the neat sample and in tetrahydrofuran solution is retarded by the solvating agent N, N, N’, N’-tetramethylethylenediamine and greatly increased by cadmium bromide. The addition of methanol to a solution of dimethylcadmium in tetrahydrofuran appears to have very little effect on the rate of exchange. The exchange was found to proceed with retention of configuration. The rate-limiting step for the exchange of methyl groups in a basic solvent appears to be the dissociation of coordinating solvent from dimethylcadmium.

The equilibrium between methylcadmium bromide, dimethylcadmium and cadmium bromide in tetrahydrofuran solution has also been studied. At room temperature the interconversion of the species is very fast on the nmr time scale but at -100° distinct absorptions for methylcadmium bromide and imethylcadmium are observed.

The species ethylmethylcadmium has been observed in the nmr spectrum.

The rate of exchange of vinyl groups in a solution of divinylcadmium in tetrahydrofuran has been found to be fast on the nmr time scale.

Exposição cambial: o impacto do câmbio nas ações das empresas brasileiras internacionalizadas

O aumento da internacionalização das economias emergentes e a tendência de financeirização da economia mundial motivaram este estudo que tem como principal objetivo analisar estatisticamente o impacto das variações cambiais no retorno das ações das principais empresas brasileiras internacionalizadas, segundo o ranking realizado pela Fundação Dom Cabral, no período entre 2000 e 2012. Além disso, buscou-se, também, descrever o processo inicial de internacionalização dessas mesmas companhias. Para isso, foi realizada uma pesquisa descritiva e quantitativa, por meio da utilização do método estatístico de regressão linear múltipla. Constatou-se que nas 28 empresas analisadas não há correlação entre variações nas taxas de câmbio e variações no retorno das ações das empresas brasileiras internacionalizadas, evidenciando assim, que outras variáveis são as responsáveis por impactarem o retorno dessas ações. Verificou-se, ainda, que a maior parte das empresas brasileiras iniciam seu processo de internacionalização por meio da instalação de linhas de produção no exterior, seguida de exportação e fusões e aquisições com outras companhias.

The California Red Sea Urchin, Strongylocentrotus franciscanus, Fishery: Catch, Effort, and Management Trends

California's red sea urchin, Strongylocentrotus franciscanus, catch peaked at 23,577 metric tons (t) in 1988. Since then, catches and CPUE have trended downward at different rates in northern and southern California, with 10,086 t landed statewide in 1995. West coast sea urchin catches and CPUE from British Columbia, Can., to Baja California, Mex., have generally declined during this period which followed a decade of rapid fishery expansion. This expansion was in response to increasing demand from Japan fueled by rising prices based largely on a more favorable export currency exchange rate. West coast stock assessment methods have been based on integrating a combination of fisheries dependent data and population surveys into models at various levels of complexity. California management policy has centered on technical measures such as size limits and seasonal closures and has been largely ineffective in stabilizing declining catches.

Taxa de câmbio e exportações brasileiras: uma análise do período recente

Esta dissertação tem por objetivo analisar o comportamento da balança comercial no Brasil no período de 1999 a 2006 e buscar compreender os fatores que contribuíram positivamente para a evolução das exportações, compensando os efeitos negativos advindos do movimento de apreciação da taxa de câmbio ocorrido a partir de 2003. Para tanto, a partir da adaptação de um modelo de oferta e demanda das exportações, elaborado por Goldstein e Khan (1978), utiliza-se dois métodos de estimação para a obtenção das elasticidades com relação às variáveis explicativas do modelo. O primeiro método consiste na estimação de um modelo simultâneo de oferta e demanda das exportações e o segundo método consiste no modelo de cointegração proposto por Engle e Granger. Em ambos os casos, as exportações foram desagregadas por classes de produtos (manufaturados, semimanufaturados e básicos), além do total das exportações.Do lado da demanda, os resultados estimados em ambos os métodos de estimação, tanto para o longo como para o curto prazo, confirmam as hipóteses levantadas ao longo do estudo ou seja, o crescimento dos preços dos produtos exportados, assim como o crescimento da renda mundial, foram bastante relevantes para o crescimento das exportações em todas as classes de produtos analisadas. Em relação à oferta de exportação, a taxa de utilização da capacidade produtiva e os preços dos produtos exportados estiveram co-relacionados positivamente com o quantum ofertado, enquanto que a taxa de câmbio, ao contrário do esperado, apresentou elasticidades negativas.

A Zona do Euro e a Teoria de Áreas Monetárias Ótimas: uma análise utilizando um Vetor Autorregressivo Aumentado por Fatores Dinâmicos (FAVAR)

Este trabalho tem como objetivos analisar as semelhanças das respostas dos países da Zona do Euro aos choques na política monetária e no câmbio (identificados através de restrições de sinais nas funções impulso-resposta) e investigar a simetria das flutuações na taxa de crescimento do nível de atividade na região através da análise da importância relativa da resposta do crescimento do PIB destes países aos choques comum e específico identificados pelo modelo FAVAR utilizado, que foi estimado através de um método Bayesiano desenvolvido para incorporar prioris de Litterman (1986). A importância do choque comum (relativamente ao específico) nos diversos países, fornece uma medida do grau de integração dos diversos membros da Zona do Euro. O trabalho contribui para a análise do grau de integração dos países da Zona do Euro ao utilizar uma metodologia que permite o uso de um amplo conjunto de variáveis e ao identificar o grau de simetria das flutuações na taxa de crescimento do nível de atividade dos membros da região através da identificação dos choques comuns e específicos. Foram utilizados dados trimestrais de 1999.I a 2013.I para os 17 países da região. Os resultados encontrados apontam para a existência de uma maior integração entre as grandes economias da Zona do Euro ( com exceção da França) e uma integração menor para as menores economias (com exceção da Finlândia).

A habilidade preditiva e os impactos dos choques na política monetária e no câmbio: comparações entre modelos DSGE, VAR e BVAR estimados para o Brasil

Este artigo compara a habilidade preditiva foradaamostra de um modelo DSGE (DynamicStochastic General EquilibriumModel)Novo-Keynesiano, especificado e estimado para o Brasil, com a de um modelo Autorregressivo Vetorial (VAR) e com a de um modelo AutorregressivoVetorial Bayesiano (BVAR). O artigo inova em relação a outros trabalhos similares feitos para o Brasil (Castro et al. (2011) e Caetano e Moura (2013)), ao escolher uma especificação para o modelo DSGE que, ao permitir o uso de um conjunto de informação mais rico, tornou possível computar-se a habilidade preditiva do DSGE a partir de previsões que são,verdadeiramente,previsõesfora da amostra. Ademais, diferentemente de outros artigos que utilizaram dados brasileiros, avalia-se em que medida as respostas das variáveis aos choques na política monetária e no câmbio, obtidas pelo modelo DSGE, se assemelham àquelas de um BVAR estimado através de procedimentos bayesianos desenvolvidos de forma consistente. O modelo DSGE estimado é similar ao utilizado por Justiniano e Preston (2010) e Alpanda (2010). O modelo BVAR foi estimado utilizando uma metodologia semelhante à desenvolvida por Sims e Zha (1998), Waggoner e Zha (2003) e Ramírez, Waggoner e Zha (2007).Os resultados obtidos mostram que o modelo DSGE é capaz de gerar, para algumas variáveis, previsões competitivas em relação às dos outros modelos rivais VAR e BVAR. Além disso, as respostas das variáveis aos choques nas políticas monetária e cambial, nos modelos DSGE e BVAR, são bastante similares.