Study of criteria influencing the success rate of DNA swabs in operational conditions: a contribution to an evidence-based approach to crime scene investigation and triage

DNA is nowadays swabbed routinely to investigate serious and volume crimes, but research remains scarce when it comes to determining the criteria that may impact the success rate of DNA swabs taken on different surfaces and situations. To investigate these criteria in fully operational conditions, DNA analysis results of 4772 swabs taken by the forensic unit of a police department in Western Switzerland over a 2.5-year period (2012-2014) in volume crime cases were considered. A representative and random sample of 1236 swab analyses was extensively examined and codified, describing several criteria such as whether the swabbing was performed at the scene or in the lab, the zone of the scene where it was performed, the kind of object or surface that was swabbed, whether the target specimen was a touch surface or a biological fluid, and whether the swab targeted a single surface or combined different surfaces. The impact of each criterion and of their combination was assessed in regard to the success rate of DNA analysis, measured through the quality of the resulting profile, and whether the profile resulted in a hit in the national database or not. Results show that some situations - such as swabs taken on door and window handles for instance - have a higher success rate than average swabs. Conversely, other situations lead to a marked decrease in the success rate, which should discourage further analyses of such swabs. Results also confirm that targeting a DNA swab on a single surface is preferable to swabbing different surfaces with the intent to aggregate cells deposited by the offender. Such results assist in predicting the chance that the analysis of a swab taken in a given situation will lead to a positive result. The study could therefore inform an evidence-based approach to decision-making at the crime scene (what to swab or not) and at the triage step (what to analyse or not), contributing thus to save resource and increase the efficiency of forensic science efforts.

Patterns of care in recurrent glioblastoma in Switzerland: a multicentre national approach based on diagnostic nodes.

Despite moderate improvements in outcome of glioblastoma after first-line treatment with chemoradiation recent clinical trials failed to improve the prognosis of recurrent glioblastoma. In the absence of a standard of care we aimed to investigate institutional treatment strategies to identify similarities and differences in the pattern of care for recurrent glioblastoma. We investigated re-treatment criteria and therapeutic pathways for recurrent glioblastoma of eight neuro-oncology centres in Switzerland having an established multidisciplinary tumour-board conference. Decision algorithms, differences and consensus were analysed using the objective consensus methodology. A total of 16 different treatment recommendations were identified based on combinations of eight different decision criteria. The set of criteria implemented as well as the set of treatments offered was different in each centre. For specific situations, up to 6 different treatment recommendations were provided by the eight centres. The only wide-range consensus identified was to offer best supportive care to unfit patients. A majority recommendation was identified for non-operable large early recurrence with unmethylated MGMT promoter status in the fit patients: here bevacizumab was offered. In fit patients with late recurrent non-operable MGMT promoter methylated glioblastoma temozolomide was recommended by most. No other majority recommendations were present. In the absence of strong evidence we identified few consensus recommendations in the treatment of recurrent glioblastoma. This contrasts the limited availability of single drugs and treatment modalities. Clinical situations of greatest heterogeneity may be suitable to be addressed in clinical trials and second opinion referrals are likely to yield diverging recommendations.

Seismic characterization of heterogeneous sedimentary and fractured rocks based on Biot's theory of poroelasticity

Understanding and quantifying seismic energy dissipation, which manifests itself in terms of velocity dispersion and attenuation, in fluid-saturated porous rocks is of considerable interest, since it offers the perspective of extracting information with regard to the elastic and hydraulic rock properties. There is increasing evidence to suggest that wave-induced fluid flow, or simply WIFF, is the dominant underlying physical mechanism governing these phenomena throughout the seismic, sonic, and ultrasonic frequency ranges. This mechanism, which can prevail at the microscopic, mesoscopic, and macroscopic scale ranges, operates through viscous energy dissipation in response to fluid pressure gradients and inertial effects induced by the passing wavefield. In the first part of this thesis, we present an analysis of broad-band multi-frequency sonic log data from a borehole penetrating water-saturated unconsolidated glacio-fluvial sediments. An inherent complication arising in the interpretation of the observed P-wave attenuation and velocity dispersion is, however, that the relative importance of WIFF at the various scales is unknown and difficult to unravel. An important generic result of our work is that the levels of attenuation and velocity dispersion due to the presence of mesoscopic heterogeneities in water-saturated unconsolidated clastic sediments are expected to be largely negligible. Conversely, WIFF at the macroscopic scale allows for explaining most of the considered data while refinements provided by including WIFF at the microscopic scale in the analysis are locally meaningful. Using a Monte-Carlo-type inversion approach, we compare the capability of the different models describing WIFF at the macroscopic and microscopic scales with regard to their ability to constrain the dry frame elastic moduli and the permeability as well as their local probability distribution. In the second part of this thesis, we explore the issue of determining the size of a representative elementary volume (REV) arising in the numerical upscaling procedures of effective seismic velocity dispersion and attenuation of heterogeneous media. To this end, we focus on a set of idealized synthetic rock samples characterized by the presence of layers, fractures or patchy saturation in the mesocopic scale range. These scenarios are highly pertinent because they tend to be associated with very high levels of velocity dispersion and attenuation caused by WIFF in the mesoscopic scale range. The problem of determining the REV size for generic heterogeneous rocks is extremely complex and entirely unexplored in the given context. In this pilot study, we have therefore focused on periodic media, which assures the inherent self- similarity of the considered samples regardless of their size and thus simplifies the problem to a systematic analysis of the dependence of the REV size on the applied boundary conditions in the numerical simulations. Our results demonstrate that boundary condition effects are absent for layered media and negligible in the presence of patchy saturation, thus resulting in minimum REV sizes. Conversely, strong boundary condition effects arise in the presence of a periodic distribution of finite-length fractures, thus leading to large REV sizes. In the third part of the thesis, we propose a novel effective poroelastic model for periodic media characterized by mesoscopic layering, which accounts for WIFF at both the macroscopic and mesoscopic scales as well as for the anisotropy associated with the layering. Correspondingly, this model correctly predicts the existence of the fast and slow P-waves as well as quasi and pure S-waves for any direction of wave propagation as long as the corresponding wavelengths are much larger than the layer thicknesses. The primary motivation for this work is that, for formations of intermediate to high permeability, such as, for example, unconsolidated sediments, clean sandstones, or fractured rocks, these two WIFF mechanisms may prevail at similar frequencies. This scenario, which can be expected rather common, cannot be accounted for by existing models for layered porous media. Comparisons of analytical solutions of the P- and S-wave phase velocities and inverse quality factors for wave propagation perpendicular to the layering with those obtained from numerical simulations based on a ID finite-element solution of the poroelastic equations of motion show very good agreement as long as the assumption of long wavelengths remains valid. A limitation of the proposed model is its inability to account for inertial effects in mesoscopic WIFF when both WIFF mechanisms prevail at similar frequencies. Our results do, however, also indicate that the associated error is likely to be relatively small, as, even at frequencies at which both inertial and scattering effects are expected to be at play, the proposed model provides a solution that is remarkably close to its numerical benchmark. -- Comprendre et pouvoir quantifier la dissipation d'énergie sismique qui se traduit par la dispersion et l'atténuation des vitesses dans les roches poreuses et saturées en fluide est un intérêt primordial pour obtenir des informations à propos des propriétés élastique et hydraulique des roches en question. De plus en plus d'études montrent que le déplacement relatif du fluide par rapport au solide induit par le passage de l'onde (wave induced fluid flow en anglais, dont on gardera ici l'abréviation largement utilisée, WIFF), représente le principal mécanisme physique qui régit ces phénomènes, pour la gamme des fréquences sismiques, sonique et jusqu'à l'ultrasonique. Ce mécanisme, qui prédomine aux échelles microscopique, mésoscopique et macroscopique, est lié à la dissipation d'énergie visqueuse résultant des gradients de pression de fluide et des effets inertiels induits par le passage du champ d'onde. Dans la première partie de cette thèse, nous présentons une analyse de données de diagraphie acoustique à large bande et multifréquences, issues d'un forage réalisé dans des sédiments glaciaux-fluviaux, non-consolidés et saturés en eau. La difficulté inhérente à l'interprétation de l'atténuation et de la dispersion des vitesses des ondes P observées, est que l'importance des WIFF aux différentes échelles est inconnue et difficile à quantifier. Notre étude montre que l'on peut négliger le taux d'atténuation et de dispersion des vitesses dû à la présence d'hétérogénéités à l'échelle mésoscopique dans des sédiments clastiques, non- consolidés et saturés en eau. A l'inverse, les WIFF à l'échelle macroscopique expliquent la plupart des données, tandis que les précisions apportées par les WIFF à l'échelle microscopique sont localement significatives. En utilisant une méthode d'inversion du type Monte-Carlo, nous avons comparé, pour les deux modèles WIFF aux échelles macroscopique et microscopique, leur capacité à contraindre les modules élastiques de la matrice sèche et la perméabilité ainsi que leur distribution de probabilité locale. Dans une seconde partie de cette thèse, nous cherchons une solution pour déterminer la dimension d'un volume élémentaire représentatif (noté VER). Cette problématique se pose dans les procédures numériques de changement d'échelle pour déterminer l'atténuation effective et la dispersion effective de la vitesse sismique dans un milieu hétérogène. Pour ce faire, nous nous concentrons sur un ensemble d'échantillons de roches synthétiques idéalisés incluant des strates, des fissures, ou une saturation partielle à l'échelle mésoscopique. Ces scénarios sont hautement pertinents, car ils sont associés à un taux très élevé d'atténuation et de dispersion des vitesses causé par les WIFF à l'échelle mésoscopique. L'enjeu de déterminer la dimension d'un VER pour une roche hétérogène est très complexe et encore inexploré dans le contexte actuel. Dans cette étude-pilote, nous nous focalisons sur des milieux périodiques, qui assurent l'autosimilarité des échantillons considérés indépendamment de leur taille. Ainsi, nous simplifions le problème à une analyse systématique de la dépendance de la dimension des VER aux conditions aux limites appliquées. Nos résultats indiquent que les effets des conditions aux limites sont absents pour un milieu stratifié, et négligeables pour un milieu à saturation partielle : cela résultant à des dimensions petites des VER. Au contraire, de forts effets des conditions aux limites apparaissent dans les milieux présentant une distribution périodique de fissures de taille finie : cela conduisant à de grandes dimensions des VER. Dans la troisième partie de cette thèse, nous proposons un nouveau modèle poro- élastique effectif, pour les milieux périodiques caractérisés par une stratification mésoscopique, qui prendra en compte les WIFF à la fois aux échelles mésoscopique et macroscopique, ainsi que l'anisotropie associée à ces strates. Ce modèle prédit alors avec exactitude l'existence des ondes P rapides et lentes ainsi que les quasis et pures ondes S, pour toutes les directions de propagation de l'onde, tant que la longueur d'onde correspondante est bien plus grande que l'épaisseur de la strate. L'intérêt principal de ce travail est que, pour les formations à perméabilité moyenne à élevée, comme, par exemple, les sédiments non- consolidés, les grès ou encore les roches fissurées, ces deux mécanismes d'WIFF peuvent avoir lieu à des fréquences similaires. Or, ce scénario, qui est assez commun, n'est pas décrit par les modèles existants pour les milieux poreux stratifiés. Les comparaisons des solutions analytiques des vitesses des ondes P et S et de l'atténuation de la propagation des ondes perpendiculaires à la stratification, avec les solutions obtenues à partir de simulations numériques en éléments finis, fondées sur une solution obtenue en 1D des équations poro- élastiques, montrent un très bon accord, tant que l'hypothèse des grandes longueurs d'onde reste valable. Il y a cependant une limitation de ce modèle qui est liée à son incapacité à prendre en compte les effets inertiels dans les WIFF mésoscopiques quand les deux mécanismes d'WIFF prédominent à des fréquences similaires. Néanmoins, nos résultats montrent aussi que l'erreur associée est relativement faible, même à des fréquences à laquelle sont attendus les deux effets d'inertie et de diffusion, indiquant que le modèle proposé fournit une solution qui est remarquablement proche de sa référence numérique.

Implementing an Evidence-based Hypertension Guideline into Finnish Primary Care Nursing

Kohonneen verenpaineen hoitosuosituksen käyttöönottosuomen perusterveydenhiollon hoitotyössä Tutkimuksen tavoitteena oli tuottaa suosituksia näyttöön perustuvien Käypä hoito -suositusten käytön edistämiseksi perusterveydenhuollon hoitotyössä. Tutkimuksen ensimmäisessä vaiheessa arvioitiin Kohonneen verenpaineen hoitosuosituksen käyttöönottoa terveyskeskuksissa. Toisessa vaiheessa selvitettiin hoitajien hoitosuositusasenteita ja kokemuksia hoitosuosituksen käyttöönotosta. Kolmannessa vaiheessa selvitettiin hoitohenkilöstön näkemyksiä hoitosuosituksen käyttöä edistävistä tekijöistä. Kohonneen verenpaineen hoitosuositus oli ylilääkäreiden ja ylihoitajien mukaan otettu käyttöön lähes kaikissa terveyskeskuksissa, mutta heidän näkemyksensä suositusten käyttöönottoa koskevista terveyskeskuksissa tehdyistä sopimuksista erosivat toisistaan monilta osin. Myös käyttöönoton toteutuksessa oli suurta vaihtelua terveyskeskusten välillä. Toteutustavan perusteella ääripäissä sijaitsevat terveyskeskukset luokiteltiin yksittäisin ja monin keinoin käyttöönottoa tukeneiksi. Hoitajien hoitosuositusasenteet olivat hyvin myönteisiä ja hoitosuosituksia pidettiin luotettavina tiedonlähteinä, ja niiden uskottiin parantavan hoidon laatua. Hoitosuositusten paikallinen soveltaminen sekä johdon ja lääkäreiden tuki olivat hoitajien mielestä keskeisiä käyttöönotossa, vaikkakin tulosten mukaan kaikki käytetyt keinot olivat yhteydessä positiivisempiin hoitosuositusasenteisiin sekä aktiivisempaan hoitajien itsensä ilmaisemaan hoitosuositusten käyttöön. Yhteenvetona voidaan todeta, että Käypä Hoito -suositukset on hyväksytty osaksi kliinistä hoitotyön käytäntöä. Niiden käytön tehostamiseksi tulisi kiinnittää huomiota suositusten paikalliseen soveltamiseen ja eri ammattiryhmien tehtäväkuvien määrittelyyn. Tähän tarvitaan terveyskeskusten johdon ja lääkäreiden selkeää tukea.

Assessing functional relations in single-case designs: Quantitative proposals in the context of the evidence-based movement

In the context of the evidence-based practices movement, the emphasis on computing effect sizes and combining them via meta-analysis does not preclude the demonstration of functional relations. For the latter aim, we propose to augment the visual analysis to add consistency to the decisions made on the existence of a functional relation without losing sight of the need for a methodological evaluation of what stimuli and reinforcement or punishment are used to control the behavior. Four options for quantification are reviewed, illustrated, and tested with simulated data. These quantifications include comparing the projected baseline with the actual treatment measurements, on the basis of either parametric or nonparametric statistics. The simulated data used to test the quantifications include nine data patterns in terms of the presence and type of effect and comprising ABAB and multiple baseline designs. Although none of the techniques is completely flawless in terms of detecting a functional relation only when it is present but not when it is absent, an option based on projecting split-middle trend and considering data variability as in exploratory data analysis proves to be the best performer for most data patterns. We suggest that the information on whether a functional relation has been demonstrated should be included in meta-analyses. It is also possible to use as a weight the inverse of the data variability measure used in the quantification for assessing the functional relation. We offer an easy to use code for open-source software for implementing some of the quantifications.

Estimation of lung cancer diagnosis and treatment costs based on a patient-level analysis in Catalonia (Spain)

Background: Assessing of the costs of treating disease is necessary to demonstrate cost-effectiveness and to estimate the budget impact of new interventions and therapeutic innovations. However, there are few comprehensive studies on resource use and costs associated with lung cancer patients in clinical practice in Spain or internationally. The aim of this paper was to assess the hospital cost associated with lung cancer diagnosis and treatment by histology, type of cost and stage at diagnosis in the Spanish National Health Service. Methods: A retrospective, descriptive analysis on resource use and a direct medical cost analysis were performed. Resource utilisation data were collected by means of patient files from nine teaching hospitals. From a hospital budget impact perspective, the aggregate and mean costs per patient were calculated over the first three years following diagnosis or up to death. Both aggregate and mean costs per patient were analysed by histology, stage at diagnosis and cost type. Results: A total of 232 cases of lung cancer were analysed, of which 74.1% corresponded to non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and 11.2% to small cell lung cancer (SCLC); 14.7% had no cytohistologic confirmation. The mean cost per patient in NSCLC ranged from 13,218 Euros in Stage III to 16,120 Euros in Stage II. The main cost components were chemotherapy (29.5%) and surgery (22.8%). Advanced disease stages were associated with a decrease in the relative weight of surgical and inpatient care costs but an increase in chemotherapy costs. In SCLC patients, the mean cost per patient was 15,418 Euros for limited disease and 12,482 Euros for extensive disease. The main cost components were chemotherapy (36.1%) and other inpatient costs (28.7%). In both groups, the Kruskall-Wallis test did not show statistically significant differences in mean cost per patient between stages. Conclusions: This study provides the costs of lung cancer treatment based on patient file reviews, with chemotherapy and surgery accounting for the major components of costs. This cost analysis is a baseline study that will provide a useful source of information for future studies on cost-effectiveness and on the budget impact of different therapeutic innovations in Spain.

Patient Seclusion and Restraint Practices in Psychiatric Hospitals - Towards Evidence Based Clinical Nursing

The overall goal of this study was to support evidence based clinical nursing regarding patient seclusion and restraint practices. This was done by ensuring professional competence through innovative learning methods. The data were collected in three phases between March 2007 and May 2009 on acute psychiatric wards. Firstly, psychiatric inpatients’ experiences and suggestions for seclusion and restraint practices were explored (n=30). Secondly, nursing and medical personnel’s perceptions of seclusion and restraint practices were explored (n=27). Thirdly, the impacts of a continuing vocational eLearning course on nurses’ professional competence was evaluated (n=158). Patients’ perspectives received insufficient attention during the seclusion and restraint process. Improvements and alternatives to seclusion and restraint as suggested by the patients focused on essential parts of clinical nursing, but were not extensively adopted. Also nursing and medical personnel thought that patients’ subjective perspective received little attention. Personnel proposed a number of alternatives to seclusion and restraint, and they expressed a need for education and support to adopt these in clinical nursing. Evaluation of impacts of eLearning course on nurses’ professional competence showed no statistical differences between an eLearning group and an education-as-usual group. This dissertation provides evidence based knowledge about the realization of seclusion and restraint practices and the impacts of eLearning course on nurses’ professional competence in psychiatric hospitals. In order to improve clinical nursing the patient perspective must be accentuated. To ensure personnel’s professional competence, there is a need for written clinical guidelines, education and support. Continuing vocational education should bring together written clinical guidelines, ethical and legal issues and the support for personnel. To achieve the ambitious goal of such integration, achievable and affordable educational programmes are required. This, in turn, yields a call for innovative learning methods.

Simulation of structural stress history based on dynamic analysis

Modern machine structures are often fabricated by welding. From a fatigue point of view, the structural details and especially, the welded details are the most prone to fatigue damage and failure. Design against fatigue requires information on the fatigue resistance of a structure’s critical details and the stress loads that act on each detail. Even though, dynamic simulation of flexible bodies is already current method for analyzing structures, obtaining the stress history of a structural detail during dynamic simulation is a challenging task; especially when the detail has a complex geometry. In particular, analyzing the stress history of every structural detail within a single finite element model can be overwhelming since the amount of nodal degrees of freedom needed in the model may require an impractical amount of computational effort. The purpose of computer simulation is to reduce amount of prototypes and speed up the product development process. Also, to take operator influence into account, real time models, i.e. simplified and computationally efficient models are required. This in turn, requires stress computation to be efficient if it will be performed during dynamic simulation. The research looks back at the theoretical background of multibody dynamic simulation and finite element method to find suitable parts to form a new approach for efficient stress calculation. This study proposes that, the problem of stress calculation during dynamic simulation can be greatly simplified by using a combination of floating frame of reference formulation with modal superposition and a sub-modeling approach. In practice, the proposed approach can be used to efficiently generate the relevant fatigue assessment stress history for a structural detail during or after dynamic simulation. In this work numerical examples are presented to demonstrate the proposed approach in practice. The results show that approach is applicable and can be used as proposed.

Selection of patients for myocardial perfusion scintigraphy based on fuzzy sets theory applied to clinical-epidemiological data and treadmill test results

Coronary artery disease (CAD) is a worldwide leading cause of death. The standard method for evaluating critical partial occlusions is coronary arteriography, a catheterization technique which is invasive, time consuming, and costly. There are noninvasive approaches for the early detection of CAD. The basis for the noninvasive diagnosis of CAD has been laid in a sequential analysis of the risk factors, and the results of the treadmill test and myocardial perfusion scintigraphy (MPS). Many investigators have demonstrated that the diagnostic applications of MPS are appropriate for patients who have an intermediate likelihood of disease. Although this information is useful, it is only partially utilized in clinical practice due to the difficulty to properly classify the patients. Since the seminal work of Lotfi Zadeh, fuzzy logic has been applied in numerous areas. In the present study, we proposed and tested a model to select patients for MPS based on fuzzy sets theory. A group of 1053 patients was used to develop the model and another group of 1045 patients was used to test it. Receiver operating characteristic curves were used to compare the performance of the fuzzy model against expert physician opinions, and showed that the performance of the fuzzy model was equal or superior to that of the physicians. Therefore, we conclude that the fuzzy model could be a useful tool to assist the general practitioner in the selection of patients for MPS.

New nitric oxide donors based on ruthenium complexes

Nitric oxide (NO) donors produce NO-related activity when applied to biological systems. Among its diverse functions, NO has been implicated in vascular smooth muscle relaxation. Despite the great importance of NO in biological systems, its pharmacological and physiological studies have been limited due to its high reactivity and short half-life. In this review we will focus on our recent investigations of nitrosyl ruthenium complexes as NO-delivery agents and their effects on vascular smooth muscle cell relaxation. The high affinity of ruthenium for NO is a marked feature of its chemistry. The main signaling pathway responsible for the vascular relaxation induced by NO involves the activation of soluble guanylyl-cyclase, with subsequent accumulation of cGMP and activation of cGMP-dependent protein kinase. This in turn can activate several proteins such as K+ channels as well as induce vasodilatation by a decrease in cytosolic Ca2+. Oxidative stress and associated oxidative damage are mediators of vascular damage in several cardiovascular diseases, including hypertension. The increased production of the superoxide anion (O2-) by the vascular wall has been observed in different animal models of hypertension. Vascular relaxation to the endogenous NO-related response or to NO released from NO deliverers is impaired in vessels from renal hypertensive (2K-1C) rats. A growing amount of evidence supports the possibility that increased NO inactivation by excess O2- may account for the decreased NO bioavailability and vascular dysfunction in hypertension.

Dietary Strategies to Optimize Wound Healing after Periodontal and Dental Implant Surgery: An Evidence-Based Review

Methods to optimize healing through dietary strategies present an attractive option for patients, such that healing from delicate oral surgeries occurs as optimally as possible with minimal patient-meditated complications through improper food choices. This review discusses findings from studies that have investigated the role of diet, either whole foods or individual dietary components, on periodontal health and their potential role in wound healing after periodontal surgery. To date, research in this area has largely focused on foods or individual dietary components that may attenuate inflammation or oxidant stress, or foster de novo bone formation. These studies suggest that a wide variety of dietary components, including macronutrients and micronutrients, are integral for optimal periodontal health and have the potential to accelerate oral wound healing after periodontal procedures. Moreover, this review provides guidance regarding dietary considerations that may help a patient achieve the best possible outcome after a periodontal procedure.

Barriers of evidence based policy making in iran's health system

La formation des sociétés fondées sur la connaissance, le progrès de la technologie de communications et un meilleur échange d'informations au niveau mondial permet une meilleure utilisation des connaissances produites lors des décisions prises dans le système de santé. Dans des pays en voie de développement, quelques études sont menées sur des obstacles qui empêchent la prise des décisions fondées sur des preuves (PDFDP) alors que des études similaires dans le monde développé sont vraiment rares. L'Iran est le pays qui a connu la plus forte croissance dans les publications scientifiques au cours de ces dernières années, mais la question qui se pose est la suivante : quels sont les obstacles qui empêchent l'utilisation de ces connaissances de même que celle des données mondiales? Cette étude embrasse trois articles consécutifs. Le but du premier article a été de trouver un modèle pour évaluer l'état de l'utilisation des connaissances dans ces circonstances en Iran à l’aide d'un examen vaste et systématique des sources suivie par une étude qualitative basée sur la méthode de la Grounded Theory. Ensuite au cours du deuxième et troisième article, les obstacles aux décisions fondées sur des preuves en Iran, sont étudiés en interrogeant les directeurs, les décideurs du secteur de la santé et les chercheurs qui travaillent à produire des preuves scientifiques pour la PDFDP en Iran. Après avoir examiné les modèles disponibles existants et la réalisation d'une étude qualitative, le premier article est sorti sous le titre de «Conception d'un modèle d'application des connaissances». Ce premier article sert de cadre pour les deux autres articles qui évaluent les obstacles à «pull» et «push» pour des PDFDP dans le pays. En Iran, en tant que pays en développement, les problèmes se situent dans toutes les étapes du processus de production, de partage et d’utilisation de la preuve dans la prise de décision du système de santé. Les obstacles qui existent à la prise de décision fondée sur des preuves sont divers et cela aux différents niveaux; les solutions multi-dimensionnelles sont nécessaires pour renforcer l'impact de preuves scientifiques sur les prises de décision. Ces solutions devraient entraîner des changements dans la culture et le milieu de la prise de décision afin de valoriser la prise de décisions fondées sur des preuves. Les critères de sélection des gestionnaires et leur nomination inappropriée ainsi que leurs remplaçants rapides et les différences de paiement dans les secteurs public et privé peuvent affaiblir la PDFDP de deux façons : d’une part en influant sur la motivation des décideurs et d'autre part en détruisant la continuité du programme. De même, tandis que la sélection et le remplacement des chercheurs n'est pas comme ceux des gestionnaires, il n'y a aucun critère pour encourager ces deux groupes à soutenir le processus décisionnel fondés sur des preuves dans le secteur de la santé et les changements ultérieurs. La sélection et la promotion des décideurs politiques devraient être basées sur leur performance en matière de la PDFDP et les efforts des universitaires doivent être comptés lors de leurs promotions personnelles et celles du rang de leur institution. Les attitudes et les capacités des décideurs et des chercheurs devraient être encouragés en leur donnant assez de pouvoir et d’habiliter dans les différentes étapes du cycle de décision. Cette étude a révélé que les gestionnaires n'ont pas suffisamment accès à la fois aux preuves nationales et internationales. Réduire l’écart qui sépare les chercheurs des décideurs est une étape cruciale qui doit être réalisée en favorisant la communication réciproque. Cette question est très importante étant donné que l'utilisation des connaissances ne peut être renforcée que par l'étroite collaboration entre les décideurs politiques et le secteur de la recherche. Dans ce but des programmes à long terme doivent être conçus ; la création des réseaux de chercheurs et de décideurs pour le choix du sujet de recherche, le classement des priorités, et le fait de renforcer la confiance réciproque entre les chercheurs et les décideurs politiques semblent être efficace.

Synthesis and Characterisation of Thermoplastic Ionomers based on Natural Rubber

Chemically modified novel thermo-reversible zinc sulphonated ionomers based on natural rubber (NR), radiation induced styrene grafted natural rubber (RI-SGNR), and chemically induced styrene grafted natural rubber (CI-SGNR) were synthesized using acetyl sulphate/zinc acetate reagent system. Evidence for the attachment of sulphonate groups has been furnished by FTIR spectra. which was supplanted by FTNMR results. Estimation of the zinc sulphonate group was done using spectroscopic techniques such as XRFS and ICPAES. The TGA results prove improvement in the therrno-oxidative stability of the modified natural rubber. Both DSC and DMTA studies show that the incorporation of the ionic groups affect the thermal transition of the base polymer. Retention of the improved physical properties of the novel ionomers even after three repeated cycles of mastication and molding at 120 degree C may be considered as the evidence for the reprocessabiJity of the ionomer. Effect of both particulate (carbon black. silica & zinc stearate) and fibrous fillers (nylon & glass) on the properties of the radiation induced styrene grafted natural rubber ionomer has been evaluated. Incorporation of HAF carbon black results in maximum improvement in physical properties. Silica reinforces the backbone chain and weakens the ionic associations. Zinc stearate plays the dual role of reinforcement and ptasticization. The nylon and glass filled lonorner compounds show good improvement in the physical properties in comparison with the neat ionomer. Dispersion and adhesion of the fillers in the ionomer matrix has been amply supported by their SEM micrographs. Microwave probing of the electrical behavior of the 26.5 ZnSRISGNR ionomer reveals that the maximum relative complex conductivity and the complex permittivity appear at the frequency of 2.6 GHz. The complex conductivity of the base polymer increases from 1.8x 10.12 S/cm to 3.3xlO·4 S/cm. Influence of fillers on the dielectric constant and conductivity of the new ionic thermoplastic elastomer has been studied. The ionomer I nylon compound shows the highest microwave conductivity. Use of the 26.5 ZnS-RISGNR ionomer as a compatibilizer for obtaining the technologically compatible blends from the immiscible SBR/NBR system has been verified. The heat fugitive ionic cross-linked natural rubber may be, therefore, useful as an alternative to vulcanized rubber and thermoplastic elastomer

Synthesis and Characterization of Novel Ionomers based on Styrene Butadiene Copolymer

Novel thermo-reversible zinc sulphonated ionomers based on styrene butadiene rubber (SBR), and high styrene rubber (HSH) were synthesized by sulphonation followed by neutralization with zinc. The sulphonate content of the ionomer was estimated by using x-ray fluorescence spectroscopy. Presence of sulphonate groups has been confirmed by FTIR and FTNMR spectra. The TGA results show improvement in the thermo~oxidative stability of the modified rubber. Both DSC and DMTA studies show that the incorporation of the ionic groups affect the glass rubber transition of the base polymer. lntroduction ol ionic functionality in to the base material improved the physical properties. Retention of the improved physical properties of the novel ionomers even after three repeated cycles of mixing and molding may be considered as the evidence for the reprocessability of the ionomer. Effect of particulate fillers (HAF black, silica and zinc stearate) on the properties of the zinc sulphonated styrene butadiene rubber ionomer has been evaluated. Incorporation of tillers results in improvement in mechanical properties. Zinc stearate plays the dual role of reinforcement and plasticization. The evaluation of dielectric properties of zinc sulphonated styrene butadiene rubber iorpmers at microwave frequencies reveal that the materials show conductivity at semiconductor level. The real and imaginary parts of the complex permittivity increases with increase in ionic functionality. Use of the 38.5 ZnS-SBR ionomer as a compatibiliser for obtaining the technologically compatible blends from the immiscible SBR/NBR system has been discussed.

ARMA modeling of time series based on rational approximation of spectral density function

This study is concerned with Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) models of time series. ARMA models form a subclass of the class of general linear models which represents stationary time series, a phenomenon encountered most often in practice by engineers, scientists and economists. It is always desirable to employ models which use parameters parsimoniously. Parsimony will be achieved by ARMA models because it has only finite number of parameters. Even though the discussion is primarily concerned with stationary time series, later we will take up the case of homogeneous non stationary time series which can be transformed to stationary time series. Time series models, obtained with the help of the present and past data is used for forecasting future values. Physical science as well as social science take benefits of forecasting models. The role of forecasting cuts across all fields of management-—finance, marketing, production, business economics, as also in signal process, communication engineering, chemical processes, electronics etc. This high applicability of time series is the motivation to this study.