Can profitable trading strategies be derived from investment best-sellers?

A glance along the finance shelves at any bookshop reveals a large number of books that seek to show readers how to ‘make a million’ or ‘beat the market’ with allegedly highly profitable equity trading strategies. This paper investigates whether useful trading strategies can be derived from popular books of investment strategy, with What Works on Wall Street by James P. O'Shaughnessy used as an example. Specifically, we test whether this strategy would have produced a similarly spectacular performance in the UK context as was demonstrated by the author for the US market. As part of our investigation, we highlight a general methodology for determining whether the observed superior performance of a trading rule could be attributed in part or in entirety to data mining. Overall, we find that the O'Shaughnessy rule performs reasonably well in the UK equity market, yielding higher returns than the FTSE All-Share Index, but lower returns than an equally weighted benchmark

The interdependence of continental warm cloud properties derived from unexploited solar background signals in ground-based lidar measurements

We have extensively analysed the interdependence between cloud optical depth, droplet effective radius, liquid water path (LWP) and geometric thickness for stratiform warm clouds using ground-based observations. In particular, this analysis uses cloud optical depths retrieved from untapped solar background signals that are previously unwanted and need to be removed in most lidar applications. Combining these new optical depth retrievals with radar and microwave observations at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Climate Research Facility in Oklahoma during 2005–2007, we have found that LWP and geometric thickness increase and follow a power-law relationship with cloud optical depth regardless of the presence of drizzle; LWP and geometric thickness in drizzling clouds can be generally 20–40 % and at least 10 % higher than those in non-drizzling clouds, respectively. In contrast, droplet effective radius shows a negative correlation with optical depth in drizzling clouds and a positive correlation in non-drizzling clouds, where, for large optical depths, it asymptotes to 10 μm. This asymptotic behaviour in non-drizzling clouds is found in both the droplet effective radius and optical depth, making it possible to use simple thresholds of optical depth, droplet size, or a combination of these two variables for drizzle delineation. This paper demonstrates a new way to enhance ground-based cloud observations and drizzle delineations using existing lidar networks.

Vertical structure of stratospheric water vapour trends derived from merged satellite data

Stratospheric water vapour is a powerful greenhouse gas. The longest available record from balloon observations over Boulder, Colorado, USA shows increases in stratospheric water vapour concentrations that cannot be fully explained by observed changes in the main drivers, tropical tropopause temperatures and methane. Satellite observations could help resolve the issue, but constructing a reliable long-term data record from individual short satellite records is challenging. Here we present an approach to merge satellite data sets with the help of a chemistry–climate model nudged to observed meteorology. We use the models’ water vapour as a transfer function between data sets that overcomes issues arising from instrument drift and short overlap periods. In the lower stratosphere, our water vapour record extends back to 1988 and water vapour concentrations largely follow tropical tropopause temperatures. Lower and mid-stratospheric long-term trends are negative, and the trends from Boulder are shown not to be globally representative. In the upper stratosphere, our record extends back to 1986 and shows positive long-term trends. The altitudinal differences in the trends are explained by methane oxidation together with a strengthened lower-stratospheric and a weakened upper stratospheric circulation inferred by this analysis. Our results call into question previous estimates of surface radiative forcing based on presumed global long-term increases in water vapour concentrations in the lower stratosphere.

Regional and monthly and clear-sky aerosol direct radiative effect (and forcing) derived from the GlobAEROSOL-AATSR satellite aerosol product

Using the GlobAEROSOL-AATSR dataset, estimates of the instantaneous, clear-sky, direct aerosol radiative effect and radiative forcing have been produced for the year 2006. Aerosol Robotic Network sun-photometer measurements have been used to characterise the random and systematic error in the GlobAEROSOL product for 22 regions covering the globe. Representative aerosol properties for each region were derived from the results of a wide range of literature sources and, along with the de-biased GlobAEROSOL AODs, were used to drive an offline version of the Met Office unified model radiation scheme. In addition to the mean AOD, best-estimate run of the radiation scheme, a range of additional calculations were done to propagate uncertainty estimates in the AOD, optical properties, surface albedo and errors due to the temporal and spatial averaging of the AOD fields. This analysis produced monthly, regional estimates of the clear-sky aerosol radiative effect and its uncertainty, which were combined to produce annual, global mean values of (−6.7±3.9)Wm−2 at the top of atmosphere (TOA) and (−12±6)Wm−2 at the surface. These results were then used to give estimates of regional, clear-sky aerosol direct radiative forcing, using modelled pre-industrial AOD fields for the year 1750 calculated for the AEROCOM PRE experiment. However, as it was not possible to quantify the uncertainty in the pre-industrial aerosol loading, these figures can only be taken as indicative and their uncertainties as lower bounds on the likely errors. Although the uncertainty on aerosol radiative effect presented here is considerably larger than most previous estimates, the explicit inclusion of the major sources of error in the calculations suggest that they are closer to the true constraint on this figure from similar methodologies, and point to the need for more, improved estimates of both global aerosol loading and aerosol optical properties.

Evidence of a topographic signal in surface soil moisture derived from ENVISAT ASAR wide swath data

The susceptibility of a catchment to flooding is affected by its soil moisture prior to an extreme rainfall event. While soil moisture is routinely observed by satellite instruments, results from previous work on the assimilation of remotely sensed soil moisture into hydrologic models have been mixed. This may have been due in part to the low spatial resolution of the observations used. In this study, the remote sensing aspects of a project attempting to improve flow predictions from a distributed hydrologic model by assimilating soil moisture measurements are described. Advanced Synthetic Aperture Radar (ASAR) Wide Swath data were used to measure soil moisture as, unlike low resolution microwave data, they have sufficient resolution to allow soil moisture variations due to local topography to be detected, which may help to take into account the spatial heterogeneity of hydrological processes. Surface soil moisture content (SSMC) was measured over the catchments of the Severn and Avon rivers in the South West UK. To reduce the influence of vegetation, measurements were made only over homogeneous pixels of improved grassland determined from a land cover map. Radar backscatter was corrected for terrain variations and normalized to a common incidence angle. SSMC was calculated using change detection. To search for evidence of a topographic signal, the mean SSMC from improved grassland pixels on low slopes near rivers was compared to that on higher slopes. When the mean SSMC on low slopes was 30–90%, the higher slopes were slightly drier than the low slopes. The effect was reversed for lower SSMC values. It was also more pronounced during a drying event. These findings contribute to the scant information in the literature on the use of high resolution SAR soil moisture measurement to improve hydrologic models.

Introducing children with special educational needs to theatre through ‘Relaxed Performances’

This short chapter explains how a growing number of theatres are beginning to offer families living with autism and other disabilities opportunities to attend without fear of alienation or rejection by other audience members. Using one small theatre as a case study, the chapter illustrates the sort of adaptations that are made to the performance and front of house arrangements.

Anthelmintic activity of trans-cinnamaldehyde and A- and B-type proanthocyanidins derived from cinnamon (Cinnamomum verum)

Cinnamon (Cinnamomum verum) has been shown to have anti-inflammatory and antimicrobial properties, but effects on parasitic worms of the intestine have not been investigated. Here, extracts of cinnamon bark were shown to have potent in vitro anthelmintic properties against the swine nematode Ascaris suum. Analysis of the extract revealed high concentrations of proanthocyanidins (PAC) and trans-cinnamaldehyde (CA). The PAC were subjected to thiolysis and HPLC-MS analysis which demonstrated that they were exclusively procyanidins, had a mean degree of polymerization of 5.2 and 21% of their inter-flavan-3-ol links were A-type linkages. Purification of the PAC revealed that whilst they had activity against A. suum, most of the potency of the extract derived from CA. Trichuris suis and Oesophagostomum dentatum larvae were similarly susceptible to CA. To test whether CA could reduce A. suum infection in pigs in vivo, CA was administered daily in the diet or as a targeted, encapsulated dose. However, infection was not significantly reduced. It is proposed that the rapid absorption or metabolism of CA in vivo may prevent it from being present in sufficient concentrations in situ to exert efficacy. Therefore, further work should focus on whether formulation of CA can enhance its activity against internal parasites.

Departmental differences in attitudes to special educational needs in the secondary school

As trends in favour of inclusion continue, questions arise concerning the extent to which teachers in mainstream schools feel prepared for the task of meeting pupils' special educational needs. Little previous research has considered how the subject taught impacts upon the attitudes of mainstream teachers towards pupils with special educational needs. In this article, Jean Ellins, research fellow at the University of Birmingham, and Jill Porter, senior lecturer at the University of Bath, report on their research into the attitudes of teachers in one mainstream secondary school. Building a detailed case study using documents, records of pupil progress, an interview and a questionnaire using a Likert-type attitude scale and open-ended questions, these researchers set out to explore distinctions between the attitudes of teachers working in different departments. Their findings suggest that the teachers of the core subjects, English, mathematics and science, had less positive attitudes than their colleagues. Further, pupils with special educational needs made least progress in science where teacher attitudes were the least positive. Jean Ellins and Jill Porter review the implications of these findings and make recommendations for future practice and further enquiry.

A peptide hydrogel derived from a fragment of human cardiac troponin C

The human cardiac troponin C peptide fragment H-V9EQLTEEQKN EFKAAFDIFVLGA31-OH, which covers helix-A in the native protein, self-assembles into b-sheet fibrils in solution. These fibrils further entangle to give a hydrogel. This peptide may therefore serve as a template for development of novel biomaterials.

Downregulation of VAPB expression in motor neurons derived from induced pluripotent stem cells of ALS8 patients

Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) is an incurable neuromuscular disease that leads to a profound loss of life quality and premature death. Around 10% of the cases are inherited and ALS8 is an autosomal dominant form of familial ALS caused by mutations in the vamp-associated protein B/C (VAPB) gene. The VAPB protein is involved in many cellular processes and it likely contributes to the pathogenesis of other forms of ALS besides ALS8. A number of successful drug tests in ALS animal models could not be translated to humans underscoring the need for novel approaches. The induced pluripotent stem cells (iPSC) technology brings new hope, since it can be used to model and investigate diseases in vitro. Here we present an additional tool to study ALS based on ALS8-iPSC. Fibroblasts from ALS8 patients and their non-carrier siblings were successfully reprogrammed to a pluripotent state and differentiated into motor neurons. We show for the first time that VAPB protein levels are reduced in ALS8-derived motor neurons but, in contrast to over-expression systems, cytoplasmic aggregates could not be identified. Our results suggest that optimal levels of VAPB may play a central role in the pathogenesis of ALS8, in agreement with the observed reduction of VAPB in sporadic ALS.

Propagation of a Brazilian isolate of Anaplasma marginale with appendage in a tick cell line (BME26) derived from Rhipicephalus (Boophilus) microplus

Anaplasma marginale is a tick-borne pathogen of cattle responsible for the disease anaplasmosis. Data suggest that Rhipicephalus (Boophilus) microplus and R. annulatus may be the major tick vectors of A. marginale in tropical and subtropical regions of the world. In this work we demonstrated the first infection and propagation of a Brazilian isolate of A. marginale (UFMG1) in the BME26 cell line derived originally from embryos of R. (Boophilus) microplus. The establishment of A. marginale infection in a cell line derived from R. (Boophilus) microplus is relevant for studying the A. marginale/tick interface. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The geodiamolide H, derived from Brazilian sponge Geodia corticostylifera, regulates actin cytoskeleton, migration and invasion of breast cancer cells cultured in three-dimensional environment

We are investigating effects of the depsipeptide geodiamolide H, isolated from the Brazilian sponge Geodia corticostylifera, on cancer cell lines grown in 3D environment. As shown previously geodiamolide H disrupts actin cytoskeleton in both sea urchin eggs and breast cancer cell monolayers. We used a normal mammary epithelial cell line MCF 10A that in 3D assay results formation of polarized spheroids. We also used cell lines derived from breast tumors with different degrees of differentiation: MCF7 positive for estrogen receptor and the Hs578T, negative for hormone receptors. Cells were placed on top of Matrigel. Spheroids obtained from these cultures were treated with geodiamolide H. Control and treated samples were analyzed by light and confocal microscopy. Geodiamolide H dramatically affected the poorly differentiated and aggressive Hs578T cell line. The peptide reverted HsS78T malignant phenotype to polarized spheroid-like structures. MCF7 cells treated by geodiamolide H exhibited polarization compared to controls. Geodiamolide H induced striking phenotypic modifications in Hs578T cell line and disruption of actin cytoskeleton. We investigated effects of geodiamolide H on migration and invasion of Hs578T cells. Time-lapse microscopy showed that the peptide inhibited migration of these cells in a dose-dependent manner. Furthermore invasion assays revealed that geodiamolide H induced a 30% decrease on invasive behavior of Hs578T cells. Our results suggest that geodiamolide H inhibits migration and invasion of Hs578T cells probably through modifications in actin cytoskeleton. The fact that normal cell lines were not affected by treatment with geodiamolide H stimulates new studies towards therapeutic use for this peptide.

Study of the spectroscopic properties and first hyperpolarizabilities of disperse azo dyes derived from 2-amino-5-nitrothiazole

The solvatochromism and other spectroscopic and photophysical characteristics of four azo disperse dyes, derived from 2-amino-5-nitrothiazole, were evaluated and interpreted with the aid of experimental data and quantum mechanical calculations. For the non-substituted compound two conformers, E and Z, were proposed for the isolated molecules, being the second one considerably less stable. The optimization of these structures in combination with a SCRF methodology (IEFPCM, Simulating the molecules in a continuum dielectric with characteristics of methanol), suggests that the Z form is not stable in solution. This same behaviour is expected for the substituted compounds, which is corroborated by experimental data presented in previous investigations [A.E.H. Machado, L.M. Rodrigues, S. Gupta, A.M.F. Oliveira-Campos, A.M.S. Silva, J. Mol. Struct. 738 (2005) 239-245]. For the substituted compounds, two forms derived from E conformer (A and R) are possible. Quantum mechanical data suggest for the isolated molecules, that the low energy absorption hand of the E conformers involve at least two close electronic states. having the low-lying excited state a (1)(n,pi*) nature, and being the S-2 state attributed to a (1)(pi,pi*) transition. The data also suggest a small energy gap between the absorption peaks of A and B, related to the easy conversion between these forms. For the structures optimized in combination with the applied SCRF methodology, an states inversion is observed for the Substituted compounds, with a considerable diminish of the energy gap between A and B absorption peaks. The electronic spectra of these compounds are quite sensitive to changes in the solvent polarity. The positive solvatochromism is more evident in aprotic solvents, probably due to the polarization induced by the solute. These compounds do not fluoresce at 298 K, but present a small but perceptible fluorescence at 77 K, which seems to be favoured by the nature of the group in the 2 `-position of the phenyl ring. Moreover, such compounds present expressive values for first hyperpolarizability, which implies in good non-linear optics (NLO) responses and photoswitching capability. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Synthesis and analgesic profile of conformationally constrained N-acylhydrazone analogues: Discovery of novel N-arylideneamino quinazolin-4(3H)-one compounds derived from natural safrole

In this work we reported the synthesis and evaluation of the analgesic, anti-inflammatory, and platelet anti-aggregating properties of new 3-(arylideneamino)-2-methyl-6,7-methylenedioxy-quinazolin-4 (3H)-one derivatives (3a-j), designed as conformationally constrained analogues of analgesic 1,3- benzodioxolyl-N- acylhydrazones (1) previously developed at LASSBio. Target compounds were synthesized in very good yields exploiting abundant Brazilian natural product safrole (2) as starting material. The pharmacological assays lead us to identify compounds LASSBio-1240 (3b) and LASSBio-1272 (3d) as new analgesic prototypes, presenting an antinociceptive pro. le more potent and effective than dipyrone and indomethacin used, respectively, as standards in AcOH-induced abdominal constrictions assay and in the formalin test. These results confirmed the success in the exploitation of conformation restriction strategy for identification of novel cyclic N-acylhydrazone analogues with optimized analgesic profile (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.