Incidencia de la evolución de los intereses estratégicos de Rusia y de Kazajstán en las dinámicas de cooperación bilateral. Periodo 1991 – 2004

El trabajo desarrolla la forma en la que evolucionaron las relaciones bilaterales entre Rusia y Kazajstán desde el periodo inmediatamente posterior a la caída de la URSS donde no existía una relación cercana, hasta el año 2001 donde se empieza a hablar de una cooperación entre los dos actores que llevó a una estrecha relación bilateral.

Análisis del nuevo concepto de seguridad de China y sus efectos en la diplomacia regional. estudio de caso: creación de la Organización de Cooperación de Shanghái (2001 – 2009).

A través de ésta investigación se pretendió analizar algunos elementos característicos de la política exterior China tras el fin de la Guerra Fría y los nuevos supuestos que tiene en materia de seguridad, los cuales se resumen en el Nuevo Concepto de Seguridad (NCS). Es bajo este nuevo contexto internacional y bajo el marco del globalismo en donde China ha redefinido la seguridad y ha establecido las pautas que han guiado su política exterior actual. Con el fin de ampliar el análisis y de llevarlo a un caso concreto, se profundizó en las relaciones que China ha establecido con los estados de la región de Asia Central a través de la Organización de Cooperación de Shanghái (OCS).

Análisis de las tensiones geopolíticas entre Kirguistán y Uzbekistán por el Valle de Fergana y sus recursos energéticos durante el periodo 2001-2010

Las tensiones geopolíticas entre Kirguistán y Uzbekistán por el Valle de Fergana durante el periodo 2001-2010 a partir de un análisis histórico de la formación de la población y la influencia de los diferentes imperios en la región. Adicionalmente, los aspectos relativos a la importancia de los recursos energéticos en el Valle de Fergana como la configuración de las tensiones generadas entre estos dos países, haciendo énfasis en el conflicto étnico latente que se ha generado en la zona. De se utilizarán la teoría constructivista de Alexander Wendt y la teoría de la geopolítica de Yves Lacoste.

Factores de riesgo de suicidio en mujeres con cáncer de mama

El cáncer de mama es uno de los diagnósticos oncológicos más frecuentes y con altas tasas de mortalidad en mujeres a nivel mundial, en específico con mayor incidencia en países del este de Europa, Asia y Latinoamérica. Su impacto trasciende el aspecto físico y afectando igualmente el área social y psicológica de estas mujeres, generando estados afectivos disfuncionales (depresión, ansiedad, estrés postraumático, conductas suicidas) que afectan su calidad de vida. La literatura reporta que el suicidio en pacientes con cáncer es 2 veces mayor que en la población general, reconociendo dentro de los grupos vulnerables a los pacientes con cáncer de mama. Objetivo: realizar una revisión de la literatura científica producida entre 2002 – 2012, sobre los factores de riesgo de suicidio en mujeres con cáncer de mama. Método: se revisaron 121 artículos científicos obtenidos en bases de datos especializadas. Resultados: En efecto, estas mujeres tienen factores de riesgo para el suicidio (raza, comorbilidad médica y psiquiátrica, miedo a la recidiva, estadios avanzados de la enfermedad, alteraciones en la imagen corporal, cambios en el rol social y efectos secundarios de los tratamientos oncológicos). Conclusiones: durante el curso de la enfermedad se presentan diversos factores biopsicosociales que pueden conducir a la ideación o a la intención suicida. Por lo anterior, es necesario incorporar en la atención psicológica de las mujeres con cáncer de mama la evaluación y la intervención de la conducta suicida y continuar profundizando en el estudio de este fenómeno cuyos efectos son deletéreos para el bienestar del paciente oncológico.

Análisis de los intereses estratégicos de China y de Estados Unidos en Uzbekistán desde el 11 de septiembre de 2001 hasta el 2011

La presente monografía analiza los cambios de identidad de China y de Estados Unidos, tras el 11-S, que se manifiestan en sus intereses estratégicos en Uzbekistán. Esto permite explicar algunas de las dinámicas que se desarrollan en Asia Central: zona del nuevo juego geopolítico mundial.

Los intereses estratégicos de EEUU, Rusia, China y Japón como determinantes de la estrategia de mantenimiento de la Estructura en la Península Coreana. 2003-2013.

El propósito principal de esta monografía es ofrecer una perspectiva crítica sobre el conflicto latente en la Península Coreana, haciendo un acercamiento al mismo desde un marco teórico asentado en el realismo estructural de Kenneth Waltz. De este modo, se busca responder a cuestiones sobre los intereses estatales como fundamento básico de las estrategias de mantenimiento de la Estructura en regiones geopolíticamente sensibles. Al final, se llega a la conclusión afirmando que la Estructura ejerce una serie de funciones para garantizar su preservación mediante una acción de convergencia en la conducta de los Estados. Esta realidad ha mantenido a la Península Coreana sin un conflicto bélico en los últimos 50 años, muy a pesar de estar al borde del mismo en varias ocasiones, ya que de llegarse a presentar se rompería la estabilidad de la región, y por ende el Equilibrio de Poderes estaría en grave riesgo.

Global hydrology modelling and uncertainty: running multiple ensembles with a campus grid.

Uncertainties associated with the representation of various physical processes in global climate models (GCMs) mean that, when projections from GCMs are used in climate change impact studies, the uncertainty propagates through to the impact estimates. A complete treatment of this ‘climate model structural uncertainty’ is necessary so that decision-makers are presented with an uncertainty range around the impact estimates. This uncertainty is often underexplored owing to the human and computer processing time required to perform the numerous simulations. Here, we present a 189-member ensemble of global river runoff and water resource stress simulations that adequately address this uncertainty. Following several adaptations and modifications, the ensemble creation time has been reduced from 750 h on a typical single-processor personal computer to 9 h of high-throughput computing on the University of Reading Campus Grid. Here, we outline the changes that had to be made to the hydrological impacts model and to the Campus Grid, and present the main results. We show that, although there is considerable uncertainty in both the magnitude and the sign of regional runoff changes across different GCMs with climate change, there is much less uncertainty in runoff changes for regions that experience large runoff increases (e.g. the high northern latitudes and Central Asia) and large runoff decreases (e.g. the Mediterranean). Furthermore, there is consensus that the percentage of the global population at risk to water resource stress will increase with climate change.

Seasonality and interannual variability of the westerly jet in the Tibetan Plateau region

In this study, 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40) data are used for the description of the seasonal cycle and the interannual variability of the westerly jet in the Tibetan Plateau region. To complement results based on the analysis of monthly mean horizontal wind speeds, an occurrence-based jet climatology is constructed by identifying the locations of the jet axes at 6-hourly intervals throughout 1958–2001. Thus, a dataset describing the highly transient and localized features of jet variability is obtained. During winter and summer the westerly jet is located, respectively, to the south and north of the Tibetan Plateau. During the spring and autumn seasons there are jet transitions from south to north and vice versa. The median dates for these transitions are 28 April and 12 October. The spring transition is associated with large interannual variations, while the fall transition occurs more reliably within a 3-week period. The strength of the jet exhibits a peculiar seasonal cycle. During northward migration in April/May, the jet intensity weakens and its latitudinal position varies largely. In some springs, there are several transitions and split configurations occur before the jet settles in its northern summer position. In June, a well-defined and unusually strong jet reappears at the northern flanks of the Tibetan Plateau. In autumn, the jet gradually but reliably recedes to the south and is typically more intense than in spring. The jet transitions between the two preferred locations follow the seasonal latitudinal migration of the jet in the Northern Hemisphere. An analysis of interannual variations shows the statistical relationship between the strength of the summer jet, the tropospheric meridional temperature gradient, and the all-India rainfall series. Both this analysis and results from previous studies point to the particular dynamical relevance of the onsetting Indian summer monsoon precipitation and the associated diabatic heating for the formation of the strong summer jet. Finally, an example is provided that illustrates the climatological significance of the jet in terms of the covariation between the jet location and the spatial precipitation distribution in central Asia.

Genetic diversity of red-fleshed apples (Malus)

Anthocyanins are flavonoid pigments imparting red, blue, or purple pigmentation to fruits, flowers and foliage. These compounds are powerful antioxidants in vitro, and are widely believed to contribute to human health. The fruit of the domestic apple (Malus x domestica) is a popular and important source of nutrients, and is considered one of the top ‘functional foods’—those foods that have inherent health-promoting benefits beyond basic nutritional value. The pigmentation of typical red apple fruits results from accumulation of anthocyanin in the skin. However, numerous genotypes of Malus are known that synthesize anthocyanin in additional fruit tissues including the core and cortex (flesh). Red-fleshed apple genotypes are an attractive starting point for development of novel varieties for consumption and nutraceutical use through traditional breeding and biotechnology. However, cultivar development is limited by lack of characterization of the diversity of genetic backgrounds showing this trait. We identified and cataloged red-fleshed apple genotypes from four Malus diversity collections representing over 3,000 accessions including domestic cultivars, wild species, and named hybrids. We found a striking range of flesh color intensity and pattern among accessions, including those carrying the MYB10 R 6 allele conferring ectopic expression of a key transcriptional regulator of anthocyanin biosynthesis. Although MYB10 R 6 was strongly associated with red-fleshed fruit among genotypes, this allele was neither sufficient nor required for this trait in all genotypes. Nearly all red-fleshed accessions tested could be traced back to ‘Niedzwetzkyana’, a presumed natural form of M. sieversii native to central Asia.

Risk allocation in a public–private partnership: a case study of construction and operation of kindergartens in Kazakhstan

In Kazakhstan, a transitional nation in Central Asia, the development of public–private partnerships (PPPs) is at its early stage and increasingly of strategic importance. This case study investigates risk allocation in an ongoing project: the construction and operation of 11 kindergartens in the city of Karaganda in the concession form for 14 years. Drawing on a conceptual framework of effective risk allocation, the study identifies principal PPP risks, provides a critical assessment of how and in what way each partner bears a certain risk, highlights the reasons underpinning risk allocation decisions and delineates the lessons learned. The findings show that the government has effectively transferred most risks to the private sector partner, whilst both partners share the demand risk of childcare services and the project default risk. The strong elements of risk allocation include clear assignment of parties’ responsibilities, streamlined financing schemes and incentives to complete the main project phases on time. However, risk allocation has missed an opportunity to create incentives for service quality improvements and take advantage of economies of scale. The most controversial element of risk allocation, as the study finds, is a revenue stream that an operator is supposed to receive from the provision of services unrelated to childcare, as neither partner is able to mitigate this revenue risk. The article concludes that in the kindergartens’ PPP, the government has achieved almost complete transfer of risks to the private sector partner. However, the costs of transfer are extensive government financial outlays that seriously compromise the PPP value for money.

Radiative forcing effect of ice-age dust

During glacial periods, dust deposition rates and inferred atmospheric concentrations were globally much higher than present. According to recent model results, the large enhancement of atmospheric dust content at the last glacial maximum (LGM) can be explained only if increases in the potential dust source areas are taken into account. Such increases are to be expected, due to effects of low precipitation and low atmospheric (CO2) on plant growth. Here the modelled three-dimensional dust fields from Mahowald et al. and modelled seasonally varying surface-albedo fields derived in a parallel manner, are used to quantify the mean radiative forcing due to modern (non-anthropogenic) and LGM dust. The effect of mineralogical provenance on the radiative properties of the dust is taken into account, as is the range of optical properties associated with uncertainties about the mixing state of the dust particles. The high-latitude (poleward of 45°) mean change in forcing (LGM minus modern) is estimated to be small (–0.9 to +0.2 W m–2), especially when compared to nearly –20 W m–2 due to reflection from the extended ice sheets. Although the net effect of dust over ice sheets is a positive forcing (warming), much of the simulated high-latitude dust was not over the ice sheets, but over unglaciated regions close to the expanded dust source region in central Asia. In the tropics the change in forcing is estimated to be overall negative, and of similarly large magnitude (–2.2 to –3.2 W m–2) to the radiative cooling effect of low atmospheric (CO2). Thus, the largest long-term climatic effect of the LGM dust is likely to have been a cooling of the tropics. Low tropical sea-surface temperatures, low atmospheric (CO2) and high atmospheric dust loading may be mutually reinforcing due to multiple positive feedbacks, including the negative radiative forcing effect of dust.

An evaluation of the simulated water balance of Eurasia and northern Africa at 6000 yr B.P. using lake status data

Changes in the water balance of Eurasia and northern Africa in response to insolation forcing at 6000 y BP simulated by five atmospheric general circulation models have been compared with observations of changes in lake status. All of the simulations show enhancement of the Asian summer monsoon and of the high pressure cells over the Pacific and Central Asia and the Middle East, causing wetter conditions in northern India and southern China and drier conditions along the Chinese coast and west of the monsoon core. All of the models show enhancement of the African monsoon, causing wetter conditions in the zone between ca 10–20 °N. Four of the models show conditions wetter than present in southern Europe and drier than present in northern Europe. Three of the models show conditions similar to present in the mid-latitude continental interior, while the remaining models show conditions somewhat drier than present. The extent and location of each of the simulated changes varies between the models, as does the mechanism producing these changes. The lake data confirm some features of the simulations, but indicate discrepancies between observed and simulated climates. For example, the data show: (1) conditions wetter than present in central Asia, from India to northern China and Mongolia, indicating that the simulated Asian monsoon expansion is too small; (2) conditions wetter than present between ca. 10–30 °N in Africa, indicating that the simulated African monsoon expansion is too small; (3) that northern Europe was drier, but the area of significantly drier conditions was more localized (around the Baltic) than shown in the simulations; (4) that southern Europe was wetter than present, apparently consistent with the simulations, but pollen data suggest that this reflects an increase in summer rainfall whereas the models show winter precipitation, and (5) that the mid-latitude continental interior was generally wetter than present.

Late Quaternary lake-level record from northern Eurasia

Lake records from northern Eurasia show regionally coherent patterns of changes during the late Quaternary. Lakes peripheral to the Scandinavian ice sheet were lower than those today but lakes in the Mediterranean zone were high at the glacial maximum, reflecting the dominance of glacial anticyclonic conditions in northern Europe and a southward shift of the Westerlies. The influence of the glacial anticyclonic circulation attenuated through the late glacial period, and the Westerlies gradually shifted northward, such that drier conditions south of the ice sheet were confined to a progressively narrower zone and the Mediterranean became drier. The early Holocene shows a gradual shift to conditions wetter than present in central Asia, associated with the expanded Asian monsoon, and in the Mediterranean, in response to local, monsoon-type circulation. There is no evidence of mid-continental aridity in northern Eurasia during the mid-Holocene. In contrast, the circum-Baltic region was drier, reflecting the increased incidence of blocking anticyclones centered on Scandinavia in summer. There is a gradual transition to modern conditions after ca. 5000 yr B.P. Although these broad-scale patterns are interrupted by shorter term fluctuations, the long-term trends in lake behavior show a clear response to changes in insolation and glaciation.

Intensified impact of tropical Atlantic SST on the western North Pacific summer climate under a weakened Atlantic thermohaline circulation

The tropical North Atlantic (TNA) sea surface temperature (SST) has been identified as one of regulators on the boreal summer climate over the western North Pacific (WNP), in addition to SSTs in the tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans. The major physical process proposed is that the TNA warming induces a pair of cyclonic circulation anomaly over the eastern Pacific and negative precipitation anomalies over the eastern to central tropical Pacific, which in turn lead to an anticyclonic circulation anomaly over the western to central North Pacific. This study further demonstrates that the modulation of the TNA warming to the WNP summer climate anomaly tends to be intensified under background of the weakened Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC) by using a water-hosing experiment. The results suggest that the weakened THC induces a decrease in thermocline depth over the TNA region, resulting in the enhanced sensitivity of SST variability to wind anomalies and thus intensification of the interannual variation of TNA SST. Under the weakened THC, the atmospheric responses to the TNA warming are westward shifted, enhancing the anticyclonic circulation and negative precipitation anomaly over the WNP. This study supports the recent finding that the negative phase of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation after the late 1960s has been favourable for the strengthening of the connection between TNA SST variability and WNP summer climate and has important implications for seasonal prediction and future projection of the WNP summer climate.

Cranial differentiation and evolution in Thrichomys apereoides (Rodentia: Echimyidae)

Thrichomys apereoides is an echimyid rodent which ranges in distribution from north-eastern and central Brazil into Paraguay, and currently five subspecies are recognized. Recent morphometric analyses of population samples formally assignable to T. a. laurentius and T. a. inermis, which occur in north-eastern Brazil, have shown that a major group of populations including both subspecies differ in cranial shape from a single population allocated to T. a. laurentius. In this study we employed mathematical models of evolutionary quantitative genetics to assess the role that random drift and selection may have played in the evolution of cranial shape differences in T. apereoides. The hypothesis of evolution due to drift was rejected and the selective forces necessary to account for shape differences were estimated. Minimum selective mortalities of the order of 10(-3) per generation were sufficient to explain the observed morphologic differentiation.